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Between giants: Bangladesh's strategy in the Indo-Pacific
Serajul I Bhuiyan
Published :
Dec 24, 2025 22:35
Updated :
Dec 24, 2025 22:35
People from all walks of life placed wreaths at the National Mausoleum at Savar while celebrating the Victory Day on December 16, 2025.
Bangladesh is presently at a crucial juncture-it is in a transition period and undergoing a visionary shift in its foreign policy. It is a fact that the pragmatic doctrine of "friendship to all, and malice towards none" has enabled Bangladesh to keep itself intact for the past several decades. However, the arrival of a divided world order, amid rising strategic competition among global powers, makes it imperative for Bangladesh to realign its foreign policy within a smarter framework of independent non-alignment. Recognising the divided world, Nobel Laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus is signaling a visionary shift in Bangladesh's foreign policy-a framework of proactive, independent non-alignment to balance engagement with the United States (US), China, India, and the rest of the Indo-Pacific.
NEW GEOPOLITICAL REALITY: The relevance of Bangladesh lies in its landmass, which is known as "The Northern Bay of Bengal Maritime Crossroads" because it is where all routes to shipping lines in East Asia, Southeast Asia, East Africa, and the Middle East converge. Approximately "90 percent of all world maritime trade" reaches or passes through the Bay of Bengal. The maritime "backbones" of Bangladesh include Chattogram, Mongla Sea Ports, and the new "deep sea port" at "Matarbari" that is being globally sought after by "leading world powers such as India, China, USA, Japan, and EU in search of new routes that could be part of Indo-Pacific Supply Chain."
This is partly due to the ever-increasing importance and stability of the economy of Bangladesh. With the interim government's renewed focus on accountability and regional, as well as international, diplomacy, the government's position in Dhaka has been enhanced regarding the politics of the Bay of Bengal. The Indo-Pacific Strategy, which focuses on balancing the growing importance of China through alliance and trade, and the BRI, which considers Bangladesh an inseparable part of the Maritime Silk Route, are the two most significant grounds on which international interest in Bangladesh has been raised.
SINO-AMERICAN COMPETITION: China has proven to be a major trading partner and a critical source of financing for the Bangladesh government's infrastructure development initiatives. Among the major projects China has participated in and are critical to the country's development are the Padma Bridge project, rail linkage projects, the Karnaphuli tunnel project, the Payra and Matarbari power projects, and the development of Special Economic Zones. China considers Bangladesh a critical partner for the Maritime Silk Route project, which seeks to provide marine connectivity to the Bay of Bengal.
Despite that, there are dangers associated with Bangladesh's ever-increasing reliance on loans from China. This is particularly the case if repayments are not managed carefully. It is already evident to other nations that the positioning of debts can pose risks to the concerned countries. Moreover, the ever-increasing presence of the Chinese Navy within the Indian Ocean and China's presence in Myanmar are already posing threats to India and the US. Bangladesh must benefit from China's presence without being influenced by its politics.
USA-THE SECURITY AND MARKET POWER: The USA continues to be Bangladesh's leading export market, especially for the RMG sector, and a major source of development and humanitarian assistance. Bangladesh is a very significant country for the USA in the context of its Indo-Pacific strategy, specifically in terms of stability of sea-lane routes, improvements in labor laws, diversification of supply chains, and support for humanitarian efforts such as the Rohingya crisis. The USA encourages the development of the information sector.
Issues pertaining to governance, labor, and democracy, when treated conjunctively, pose a possibility of conflict owing to the Washington model emphasis. The new policy context Bangladesh faces, aimed at reinstating its integrity and upholding its promises of transparency, presents a fresh start for Bangladesh and the U.S. Once again, Bangladesh is thrust into the world arena due to the U.S.' values-based foreign policy.
INDIA - THE REGIONAL LEADER: On the one hand, the Bangladesh factor appears to be an intrinsic component of the Indian strategy, especially with New Delhi pushing to be an elbow-throwing maritime power in the Indo-Pacific region. The Bangladesh factor remains very important in Indian calculations regarding the implications of terrorism, stability, and connectivity in Northeast India. On the other hand, one can see concerns about China's growing influence, especially as Bangladesh appears to be challenged in water resource distribution, trade, and border disputes despite its growth ambitions.
The government of Bangladesh must therefore find a subtle balance, with strong cooperation with India on matters of common interest and differences in priorities in other areas.
BALANCING WITHOUT ALIGNING: The ideology and strategy of the foreign policy of Bangladesh had been prevalently based on non-alignment and peaceful coexistence. It must, in the contemporary international setup, necessitate the need for an active policy; that is, engagement rather than alignment. It is necessary that the country aims to establish better relations with both blocs while avoiding any dominance of one security line over the other.
The situation in which the balance must be maintained among China, the United States, and India poses challenges for the three nations, as they each have their own goals. While China seeks to provide infrastructure and dominate the maritime area, the United States seeks security for its sea lanes and the idea of democracy and governance. On the other hand, the Indian government seeks stability and limits other nations' influence in South Asia. Bangladesh, on the other hand, should benefit from the situation rather than be drawn into initiatives taken by other nations.
SECURING THE BAY OF BENGAL: There can be no satisfactory strategy for the Indo-Pacific without a comprehensive strategy for the sea. The Bangladesh sea area extends beyond 118,000 sq km and includes significant gas resources, fishing grounds, and potential for the Blue Economic Zone. The settlement of the sea boundary with Myanmar in 2012 and then with India in 2014 significantly reinforced Bangladesh's sovereignty over the sea area compared to the earlier adjusted boundary line. Yet the Bay of Bengal is one of the most volatile areas for the risks of conflict and instability, incorporating illicit fishing, smuggling, human trafficking, and the risks posed by climate change.
The need for modernisation among the Navy and Coast Guard has emerged as a pressing issue these days. Effective coastal radar systems, underwater resource surveying, maritime mobility, and the ability to protect naval facilities in cyberspace are among the most imperative areas, and Bangladesh must develop them. The possibility of conducting joint maritime drills with other friendly nations can also help promote mutual cooperation and deterrence to a great extent. Bangladesh needs an expanded coast guard presence to protect fisheries, prevent illegal use of Bangladeshi fishing vessels, and ensure safe passage. Climate change is causing erosion and intensifying cyclones; therefore, disaster relief preparedness is a priority.
DHAKA'S ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY: The greatest strength in Bangladesh's geopolitics thus lies not in its military capabilities but in its economy. The fact that the country now stands as the second-largest RMG exporter globally, the country's envisaged Bay of Bengal logistics hub positioning, and the growth of the Bangladesh information economy from strength to strength are thus a strong bargaining position for the country's government in the global stage. Diversification in the economy is thus required for the country as it moves into the graduation stage as an LDC.
The foray into new areas of shipyard construction, green innovation, electronics, and biotechnology in the marine domain would mark a new path for Bangladesh's economy. Likewise, the Blue Economy could also generate fresh opportunities for Bangladesh in a proper fishing manner, offshore energy, and marine research. Bangladesh could also diversify its economic diplomacy with Japan, Korea, the EU, and the SE Asian countries to sidestep dependence on a sole large trading partner and assist the country to integrate into the world's strong supply chains.
CONNECTIVITY AND THE INDO-PACIFIC ARCHITECTURE: In short, the Indo-Pacific vision is implicitly geopolitical, but primarily a connectivity project. The infrastructure, land corridor, energy, information, and communications technology sectors constitute the essential life lines of the new paradigm. Bangladesh is placed at the intersection of three major connectivity projects.
In the Indian Bay of Bengal group, there are BBIN, BIMSTEC, and the SAGAR Initiative, which provide various opportunities for the integration of Bangladesh with Nepal, Bhutan, or Southeast Asia. Then there is the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, which brings much-needed infrastructure investment and cooperation with MNCs to Bangladesh. However, Bangladesh should remain cautious in managing the latter. US-led initiatives regarding the diversification of the supply chain provide Bangladesh with an opportunity to locate within the emerging global chain as the whole world shifts away from China.
BANGLADESH'S INDO-PACIFIC OUTLOOK: The Bangladesh Indo-Pacific Outlook, a framework strategy adopted by Bangladesh in April 2023, is a guidelines document that helps Bangladesh cope with a fluid and dynamic regional landscape. While being different from the strategies that emphasise alliances and blocs as key building blocks, as articulated and pursued by rival great powers, Bangladesh's IPO is rooted in four principles: inclusiveness, non-intervention, sea lane stability, and partnership for development.
With the evolving nature of competition in the Indo-Pacific, Bangladesh has had to develop its strategic thinking to respond to the changing challenges posed by the reshaped global supply chain, the growth of military presence in the Indian Ocean, and the ever-changing Myanmar politics. The IPO, therefore, becomes a living, dynamic document, not a static one.
CURRENT CHALLENGES: Bangladesh's Indo-Pacific strategy is facing growing stakes amid emergent geopolitical realities. Decoupling policies in the West are transforming into de-risking policies regarding China, and Bangladesh sees opportunities in having its factories moved from China and reducing overdependence on China's technological advances. On the other hand, the rising capabilities of the Indian Navy and the rising importance of the Bay of Bengal in QUAD initiatives are changing the region's security landscape, having direct implications for Bangladesh.
The growing footprint of China in the region and the dynamic changes in the Myanmar conflict, especially the re-emergence of the Arakan Army, present new security imperatives for Bangladesh's southeastern perimeter. The Rohingya crisis, which was initially only a humanitarian concern, has now transformed into a regional security concern entwined in the competing interest agendas of the US, China, the ASEAN bloc, and India. On the other hand, climate change has become a new fulcrum in international security considerations, as countries are now re-evaluating their security imperatives in light of climate vulnerabilities. Bangladesh stands as the only state with both moral and diplomatic influence to shape international climate policy.
On the domestic front, Bangladesh's focus on transparency, reform, and good governance has enhanced the country's credibility on the international stage. Global partners are increasingly amenable to cooperation as Bangladesh introduces economic reforms and pursues an anti-corruption agenda, thereby cementing Bangladesh's strategic importance in the emerging Indo-Pacific vision.
THE REAFFIRMATION OF SOVEREIGNTY: A clear change in Bangladesh's geopolitical stance has emerged with the advent of the Yunus-led interim government. At the heart of this shift is a proactive foreign policy agenda that seeks to address imbalances of various proportions in Bangladesh's international relations, especially with larger countries like China and India. Yunus's stance is based on the unequivocal expression of sovereignty and freedom of international actions and decisions, instead of bilateral cooperation based on strategic submission. Simultaneously, he has emphasized the importance of reviving multilateralism within the SAARC framework and has suggested resuming cooperation with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives to reintroduce unity and group activism in South Asia.
The diplomatic vision is rooted in careful engagement with the big international actors. Meanwhile, his administration has strengthened its partnership with the United States on governance, labor, and innovation, while maintaining a strong relationship economically and through infrastructure development with China. He also aims, however, to rebalance its relationship with India through mutual transparency, two-way advantages, and Bangladesh's full respect for its sovereignty as a state.
CONCLUSION: The people of Bangladesh are at the onset of a very defining era that promises to see their country gain more geopolitical importance. It is positioned to be a player that cannot be overlooked in the geopolitical rearrangements taking place in the Indo-Pacific. For the era that Bangladesh finds itself in, it has to tread very cautiously.
Foreign policy in Bangladesh must be proactive, assertive, and multi-directional, involving all key stakeholders and every action conditioned on our national interest. Managing various global interests is part of statecraft that has stopped being an art and has rather become a necessity.
Bangladesh would be confident with naval power, a diversified economy, and a sharpened diplomatic staff as a rightful participant in the growing Indo-Pacific order. In today's evolving global order, there is no call for Bangladesh to choose a side, but rather for the country to set the direction the journey shall take the state.
Dr Serajul I Bhuiyan is a professor and former head of journalism and mass communications at Savannah State University in Savannah, Georgia, USA.
Serajul I Bhuiyan
Published :
Dec 24, 2025 22:35
Updated :
Dec 24, 2025 22:35
People from all walks of life placed wreaths at the National Mausoleum at Savar while celebrating the Victory Day on December 16, 2025.
Bangladesh is presently at a crucial juncture-it is in a transition period and undergoing a visionary shift in its foreign policy. It is a fact that the pragmatic doctrine of "friendship to all, and malice towards none" has enabled Bangladesh to keep itself intact for the past several decades. However, the arrival of a divided world order, amid rising strategic competition among global powers, makes it imperative for Bangladesh to realign its foreign policy within a smarter framework of independent non-alignment. Recognising the divided world, Nobel Laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus is signaling a visionary shift in Bangladesh's foreign policy-a framework of proactive, independent non-alignment to balance engagement with the United States (US), China, India, and the rest of the Indo-Pacific.
NEW GEOPOLITICAL REALITY: The relevance of Bangladesh lies in its landmass, which is known as "The Northern Bay of Bengal Maritime Crossroads" because it is where all routes to shipping lines in East Asia, Southeast Asia, East Africa, and the Middle East converge. Approximately "90 percent of all world maritime trade" reaches or passes through the Bay of Bengal. The maritime "backbones" of Bangladesh include Chattogram, Mongla Sea Ports, and the new "deep sea port" at "Matarbari" that is being globally sought after by "leading world powers such as India, China, USA, Japan, and EU in search of new routes that could be part of Indo-Pacific Supply Chain."
This is partly due to the ever-increasing importance and stability of the economy of Bangladesh. With the interim government's renewed focus on accountability and regional, as well as international, diplomacy, the government's position in Dhaka has been enhanced regarding the politics of the Bay of Bengal. The Indo-Pacific Strategy, which focuses on balancing the growing importance of China through alliance and trade, and the BRI, which considers Bangladesh an inseparable part of the Maritime Silk Route, are the two most significant grounds on which international interest in Bangladesh has been raised.
SINO-AMERICAN COMPETITION: China has proven to be a major trading partner and a critical source of financing for the Bangladesh government's infrastructure development initiatives. Among the major projects China has participated in and are critical to the country's development are the Padma Bridge project, rail linkage projects, the Karnaphuli tunnel project, the Payra and Matarbari power projects, and the development of Special Economic Zones. China considers Bangladesh a critical partner for the Maritime Silk Route project, which seeks to provide marine connectivity to the Bay of Bengal.
Despite that, there are dangers associated with Bangladesh's ever-increasing reliance on loans from China. This is particularly the case if repayments are not managed carefully. It is already evident to other nations that the positioning of debts can pose risks to the concerned countries. Moreover, the ever-increasing presence of the Chinese Navy within the Indian Ocean and China's presence in Myanmar are already posing threats to India and the US. Bangladesh must benefit from China's presence without being influenced by its politics.
USA-THE SECURITY AND MARKET POWER: The USA continues to be Bangladesh's leading export market, especially for the RMG sector, and a major source of development and humanitarian assistance. Bangladesh is a very significant country for the USA in the context of its Indo-Pacific strategy, specifically in terms of stability of sea-lane routes, improvements in labor laws, diversification of supply chains, and support for humanitarian efforts such as the Rohingya crisis. The USA encourages the development of the information sector.
Issues pertaining to governance, labor, and democracy, when treated conjunctively, pose a possibility of conflict owing to the Washington model emphasis. The new policy context Bangladesh faces, aimed at reinstating its integrity and upholding its promises of transparency, presents a fresh start for Bangladesh and the U.S. Once again, Bangladesh is thrust into the world arena due to the U.S.' values-based foreign policy.
INDIA - THE REGIONAL LEADER: On the one hand, the Bangladesh factor appears to be an intrinsic component of the Indian strategy, especially with New Delhi pushing to be an elbow-throwing maritime power in the Indo-Pacific region. The Bangladesh factor remains very important in Indian calculations regarding the implications of terrorism, stability, and connectivity in Northeast India. On the other hand, one can see concerns about China's growing influence, especially as Bangladesh appears to be challenged in water resource distribution, trade, and border disputes despite its growth ambitions.
The government of Bangladesh must therefore find a subtle balance, with strong cooperation with India on matters of common interest and differences in priorities in other areas.
BALANCING WITHOUT ALIGNING: The ideology and strategy of the foreign policy of Bangladesh had been prevalently based on non-alignment and peaceful coexistence. It must, in the contemporary international setup, necessitate the need for an active policy; that is, engagement rather than alignment. It is necessary that the country aims to establish better relations with both blocs while avoiding any dominance of one security line over the other.
The situation in which the balance must be maintained among China, the United States, and India poses challenges for the three nations, as they each have their own goals. While China seeks to provide infrastructure and dominate the maritime area, the United States seeks security for its sea lanes and the idea of democracy and governance. On the other hand, the Indian government seeks stability and limits other nations' influence in South Asia. Bangladesh, on the other hand, should benefit from the situation rather than be drawn into initiatives taken by other nations.
SECURING THE BAY OF BENGAL: There can be no satisfactory strategy for the Indo-Pacific without a comprehensive strategy for the sea. The Bangladesh sea area extends beyond 118,000 sq km and includes significant gas resources, fishing grounds, and potential for the Blue Economic Zone. The settlement of the sea boundary with Myanmar in 2012 and then with India in 2014 significantly reinforced Bangladesh's sovereignty over the sea area compared to the earlier adjusted boundary line. Yet the Bay of Bengal is one of the most volatile areas for the risks of conflict and instability, incorporating illicit fishing, smuggling, human trafficking, and the risks posed by climate change.
The need for modernisation among the Navy and Coast Guard has emerged as a pressing issue these days. Effective coastal radar systems, underwater resource surveying, maritime mobility, and the ability to protect naval facilities in cyberspace are among the most imperative areas, and Bangladesh must develop them. The possibility of conducting joint maritime drills with other friendly nations can also help promote mutual cooperation and deterrence to a great extent. Bangladesh needs an expanded coast guard presence to protect fisheries, prevent illegal use of Bangladeshi fishing vessels, and ensure safe passage. Climate change is causing erosion and intensifying cyclones; therefore, disaster relief preparedness is a priority.
DHAKA'S ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY: The greatest strength in Bangladesh's geopolitics thus lies not in its military capabilities but in its economy. The fact that the country now stands as the second-largest RMG exporter globally, the country's envisaged Bay of Bengal logistics hub positioning, and the growth of the Bangladesh information economy from strength to strength are thus a strong bargaining position for the country's government in the global stage. Diversification in the economy is thus required for the country as it moves into the graduation stage as an LDC.
The foray into new areas of shipyard construction, green innovation, electronics, and biotechnology in the marine domain would mark a new path for Bangladesh's economy. Likewise, the Blue Economy could also generate fresh opportunities for Bangladesh in a proper fishing manner, offshore energy, and marine research. Bangladesh could also diversify its economic diplomacy with Japan, Korea, the EU, and the SE Asian countries to sidestep dependence on a sole large trading partner and assist the country to integrate into the world's strong supply chains.
CONNECTIVITY AND THE INDO-PACIFIC ARCHITECTURE: In short, the Indo-Pacific vision is implicitly geopolitical, but primarily a connectivity project. The infrastructure, land corridor, energy, information, and communications technology sectors constitute the essential life lines of the new paradigm. Bangladesh is placed at the intersection of three major connectivity projects.
In the Indian Bay of Bengal group, there are BBIN, BIMSTEC, and the SAGAR Initiative, which provide various opportunities for the integration of Bangladesh with Nepal, Bhutan, or Southeast Asia. Then there is the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, which brings much-needed infrastructure investment and cooperation with MNCs to Bangladesh. However, Bangladesh should remain cautious in managing the latter. US-led initiatives regarding the diversification of the supply chain provide Bangladesh with an opportunity to locate within the emerging global chain as the whole world shifts away from China.
BANGLADESH'S INDO-PACIFIC OUTLOOK: The Bangladesh Indo-Pacific Outlook, a framework strategy adopted by Bangladesh in April 2023, is a guidelines document that helps Bangladesh cope with a fluid and dynamic regional landscape. While being different from the strategies that emphasise alliances and blocs as key building blocks, as articulated and pursued by rival great powers, Bangladesh's IPO is rooted in four principles: inclusiveness, non-intervention, sea lane stability, and partnership for development.
With the evolving nature of competition in the Indo-Pacific, Bangladesh has had to develop its strategic thinking to respond to the changing challenges posed by the reshaped global supply chain, the growth of military presence in the Indian Ocean, and the ever-changing Myanmar politics. The IPO, therefore, becomes a living, dynamic document, not a static one.
CURRENT CHALLENGES: Bangladesh's Indo-Pacific strategy is facing growing stakes amid emergent geopolitical realities. Decoupling policies in the West are transforming into de-risking policies regarding China, and Bangladesh sees opportunities in having its factories moved from China and reducing overdependence on China's technological advances. On the other hand, the rising capabilities of the Indian Navy and the rising importance of the Bay of Bengal in QUAD initiatives are changing the region's security landscape, having direct implications for Bangladesh.
The growing footprint of China in the region and the dynamic changes in the Myanmar conflict, especially the re-emergence of the Arakan Army, present new security imperatives for Bangladesh's southeastern perimeter. The Rohingya crisis, which was initially only a humanitarian concern, has now transformed into a regional security concern entwined in the competing interest agendas of the US, China, the ASEAN bloc, and India. On the other hand, climate change has become a new fulcrum in international security considerations, as countries are now re-evaluating their security imperatives in light of climate vulnerabilities. Bangladesh stands as the only state with both moral and diplomatic influence to shape international climate policy.
On the domestic front, Bangladesh's focus on transparency, reform, and good governance has enhanced the country's credibility on the international stage. Global partners are increasingly amenable to cooperation as Bangladesh introduces economic reforms and pursues an anti-corruption agenda, thereby cementing Bangladesh's strategic importance in the emerging Indo-Pacific vision.
THE REAFFIRMATION OF SOVEREIGNTY: A clear change in Bangladesh's geopolitical stance has emerged with the advent of the Yunus-led interim government. At the heart of this shift is a proactive foreign policy agenda that seeks to address imbalances of various proportions in Bangladesh's international relations, especially with larger countries like China and India. Yunus's stance is based on the unequivocal expression of sovereignty and freedom of international actions and decisions, instead of bilateral cooperation based on strategic submission. Simultaneously, he has emphasized the importance of reviving multilateralism within the SAARC framework and has suggested resuming cooperation with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives to reintroduce unity and group activism in South Asia.
The diplomatic vision is rooted in careful engagement with the big international actors. Meanwhile, his administration has strengthened its partnership with the United States on governance, labor, and innovation, while maintaining a strong relationship economically and through infrastructure development with China. He also aims, however, to rebalance its relationship with India through mutual transparency, two-way advantages, and Bangladesh's full respect for its sovereignty as a state.
CONCLUSION: The people of Bangladesh are at the onset of a very defining era that promises to see their country gain more geopolitical importance. It is positioned to be a player that cannot be overlooked in the geopolitical rearrangements taking place in the Indo-Pacific. For the era that Bangladesh finds itself in, it has to tread very cautiously.
Foreign policy in Bangladesh must be proactive, assertive, and multi-directional, involving all key stakeholders and every action conditioned on our national interest. Managing various global interests is part of statecraft that has stopped being an art and has rather become a necessity.
Bangladesh would be confident with naval power, a diversified economy, and a sharpened diplomatic staff as a rightful participant in the growing Indo-Pacific order. In today's evolving global order, there is no call for Bangladesh to choose a side, but rather for the country to set the direction the journey shall take the state.
Dr Serajul I Bhuiyan is a professor and former head of journalism and mass communications at Savannah State University in Savannah, Georgia, USA.
