[🇮🇳] India’s Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty With Pakistan Could Backfire with China taking Steps

[Mainerik]

Date of Event: May 25, 2025

Source : https://thediplomat.com/2025/04/indias-suspension-of-the-indus-waters-treaty-with-pakistan-could-backfire/

It could prompt China to block the Brahmaputra River, which supplies around 30 percent of India’s fresh water and about 44 percent of its total hydropower potential.


@Krishna with Flute @Sharma Ji @Lulldapull @Vsdoc @Jiangnan @Bilal9 @Saif @Bagheera0084 @Paitoo @Mrloveday


Tensions between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan have escalated sharply after a militant attack at Pahalgam in Anantnag district of Indian-administrated Kashmir, which resulted in the death of at least 26 tourists.

The attack has triggered angry calls for retaliation in India. Without providing any evidence, India has blamed Pakistan for the attack and taken a host of measures to ratchet up tensions. These measures include termination of visa services for Pakistanis, downgrading of ties, and above all, a unilateral decision to suspend the historic Indus Waters Treaty.

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is a transboundary water agreement signed in 1960 that allows both India and Pakistan to share water from the Indus basin. The agreement has survived many conflicts, diplomatic breakdowns, and near-constant tensions between the two countries for over 60 years.

Pakistan has responded to the Indian decisions by closing its airspace for Indian aircraft and downgrading ties. It has threatened to suspend all bilateral agreements between the two countries, including the Simla Accord of 1972, which validates the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh region.

India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty is a serious gamble. The decision has the potential to foment chaos and unrest in Pakistan — the Indus is Pakistan’s lifeline — and bring the two nuclear-armed nations close to the possibility of a full-scale war in the near future. Pakistan cannot afford to have its water shut down by India, in any form or manner.

This was made clear at yesterday’s meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Committee to discuss formal responses to India’s measures.

“Water is a Vital National Interest of Pakistan, a lifeline for its 240 million people, and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs,” the statement read. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.”

India’s decision to suspend the IWT marks a dangerous precedent for how the two countries manage their water resources together.

India’s announcement, however, doesn’t mean that New Delhi will be able to immediately shut down water supply to Pakistan at a scale that could make some significant dent in flows during the high monsoon season — when Pakistan stores most of its water.

The Indus Waters Treaty gives Pakistan access to the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. These are enormous rivers and carry tens of billions of cubic meters of water between May and September, the months when ice melts and rivers on the Indus basin flow.

Currently, India has some upstream infrastructure on these rivers. However, none of the existing infrastructure base has the capacity to hold back water that enters Pakistan as part of the treaty. “These are run-of-the-river hydropower projects with very limited live storage. Even if India were to coordinate releases across all its existing dams, all it may be able to do is slightly shift the timing of flows,” according to Hassan Khan, an environmental policy expert at Tufts University.

It will take years, massive infrastructure development, and billions of dollars in investments for India to actually disrupt Pakistan’s water share. Moreover, there are risks of flooding in Indian-administrated Kashmir along with other geographical challenges to any efforts aimed at building water diversion infrastructure in the Kashmir region.

However, after India’s announcement, the real threat lies in the uncertainty ahead and the dangers that debates over suspending water flows may cause in the coming months and years.

The Indus Waters Treaty is a binding agreement between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank. The agreement does not contain any provision for unilateral suspension. Any official comment, announcement or move by India regarding the IWT, even if made for rhetorical reasons, will carry the risk of a conflict with Pakistan.

Moreover, New Delhi’s unilateral suspension of the treaty sets a dangerous precedent in the region that could backfire on India. For instance, China could mirror India’s controversial move by blocking the Brahmaputra River. The Brahmaputra supplies around 30 percent of India’s fresh water resources and about 44 percent of the country’s total hydropower potential. China is building major dams on the Brahmaputra and could find justification for further constructions in India’s controversial move on the IWT.

Besides, India’s decision could force Pakistan into fast-tracking efforts to build dams in its part of Kashmir with Chinese cooperation. Pakistan and China are already collaborating on massive dam projects, including Diamer-Bhasha, Dasu, and Mohmand, and India’s recent threats will likely bring greater focus and urgency to these developments.

India should not forget that China is a major stakeholder in these projects and has invested billions of dollars in Pakistan’s hydroelectric power sector.

In the long run, if India tries to divert, block, or significantly reduce Pakistan’s share of Indus waters, Pakistan’s military doctrine permits a kinetic response. India should consider the fact that a decision to make Pakistan water-scarce can only lead to a war as a last resort for survival for the country.

The United States and the World Bank are likely to intervene behind the scenes to prevent the complete breakdown of the IWT to avoid the prospect of a wider conflict. At best, India may try to use this new dynamic to renegotiate the treaty with Pakistan. India has tried this for years and may follow on this path with a renewed resolve.

Instead of escalation, renegotiation under international mediation and forums is the only viable path, unless both countries are prepared for a wider war, which will not have any winners.

 

[Krishna with Flute]

It could prompt China to block the Brahmaputra River, which supplies around 30 percent of India’s fresh water and about 44 percent of its total hydropower potential.


@Krishna with Flute @Sharma Ji @Lulldapull @Vsdoc @Jiangnan @Bilal9 @Saif @Bagheera0084 @Paitoo @Mrloveday


Tensions between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan have escalated sharply after a militant attack at Pahalgam in Anantnag district of Indian-administrated Kashmir, which resulted in the death of at least 26 tourists.

The attack has triggered angry calls for retaliation in India. Without providing any evidence, India has blamed Pakistan for the attack and taken a host of measures to ratchet up tensions. These measures include termination of visa services for Pakistanis, downgrading of ties, and above all, a unilateral decision to suspend the historic Indus Waters Treaty.

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is a transboundary water agreement signed in 1960 that allows both India and Pakistan to share water from the Indus basin. The agreement has survived many conflicts, diplomatic breakdowns, and near-constant tensions between the two countries for over 60 years.

Pakistan has responded to the Indian decisions by closing its airspace for Indian aircraft and downgrading ties. It has threatened to suspend all bilateral agreements between the two countries, including the Simla Accord of 1972, which validates the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh region.

India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty is a serious gamble. The decision has the potential to foment chaos and unrest in Pakistan — the Indus is Pakistan’s lifeline — and bring the two nuclear-armed nations close to the possibility of a full-scale war in the near future. Pakistan cannot afford to have its water shut down by India, in any form or manner.

This was made clear at yesterday’s meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Committee to discuss formal responses to India’s measures.

“Water is a Vital National Interest of Pakistan, a lifeline for its 240 million people, and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs,” the statement read. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.”

India’s decision to suspend the IWT marks a dangerous precedent for how the two countries manage their water resources together.

India’s announcement, however, doesn’t mean that New Delhi will be able to immediately shut down water supply to Pakistan at a scale that could make some significant dent in flows during the high monsoon season — when Pakistan stores most of its water.

The Indus Waters Treaty gives Pakistan access to the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. These are enormous rivers and carry tens of billions of cubic meters of water between May and September, the months when ice melts and rivers on the Indus basin flow.

Currently, India has some upstream infrastructure on these rivers. However, none of the existing infrastructure base has the capacity to hold back water that enters Pakistan as part of the treaty. “These are run-of-the-river hydropower projects with very limited live storage. Even if India were to coordinate releases across all its existing dams, all it may be able to do is slightly shift the timing of flows,” according to Hassan Khan, an environmental policy expert at Tufts University.

It will take years, massive infrastructure development, and billions of dollars in investments for India to actually disrupt Pakistan’s water share. Moreover, there are risks of flooding in Indian-administrated Kashmir along with other geographical challenges to any efforts aimed at building water diversion infrastructure in the Kashmir region.

However, after India’s announcement, the real threat lies in the uncertainty ahead and the dangers that debates over suspending water flows may cause in the coming months and years.

The Indus Waters Treaty is a binding agreement between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank. The agreement does not contain any provision for unilateral suspension. Any official comment, announcement or move by India regarding the IWT, even if made for rhetorical reasons, will carry the risk of a conflict with Pakistan.

Moreover, New Delhi’s unilateral suspension of the treaty sets a dangerous precedent in the region that could backfire on India. For instance, China could mirror India’s controversial move by blocking the Brahmaputra River. The Brahmaputra supplies around 30 percent of India’s fresh water resources and about 44 percent of the country’s total hydropower potential. China is building major dams on the Brahmaputra and could find justification for further constructions in India’s controversial move on the IWT.

Besides, India’s decision could force Pakistan into fast-tracking efforts to build dams in its part of Kashmir with Chinese cooperation. Pakistan and China are already collaborating on massive dam projects, including Diamer-Bhasha, Dasu, and Mohmand, and India’s recent threats will likely bring greater focus and urgency to these developments.

India should not forget that China is a major stakeholder in these projects and has invested billions of dollars in Pakistan’s hydroelectric power sector.

In the long run, if India tries to divert, block, or significantly reduce Pakistan’s share of Indus waters, Pakistan’s military doctrine permits a kinetic response. India should consider the fact that a decision to make Pakistan water-scarce can only lead to a war as a last resort for survival for the country.

The United States and the World Bank are likely to intervene behind the scenes to prevent the complete breakdown of the IWT to avoid the prospect of a wider conflict. At best, India may try to use this new dynamic to renegotiate the treaty with Pakistan. India has tried this for years and may follow on this path with a renewed resolve.

Instead of escalation, renegotiation under international mediation and forums is the only viable path, unless both countries are prepared for a wider war, which will not have any winners.

Out of total water of Brahmputra, 20% come from Tibet catchment area. So maximum what China can control is 20 % of water. They can release that water to cause flood etc. To take care of same, India is building a dam bigger than the one of China. India has worked out the remedy of Possible Chinese mischief.

 

[Bagheera0084]

20%

Slightly more or slightly less?

 

[Krishna with Flute]

Slightly more or slightly less?

May be. These are the figures in open media. It doesn't make any difference.

 

[Vsdoc]

Slightly more or slightly less?

Like Kashmir, the fight for Arunachal is all about the water.

 

[Bilal9]

Besides, India’s decision could force Pakistan into fast-tracking efforts to build dams in its part of Kashmir with Chinese cooperation. Pakistan and China are already collaborating on massive dam projects, including Diamer-Bhasha, Dasu, and Mohmand, and India’s recent threats will likely bring greater focus and urgency to these developments.

India should not forget that China is a major stakeholder in these projects and has invested billions of dollars in Pakistan’s hydroelectric power sector.

China and India targeting each other's dams with missiles could be a really really bad idea. But it may get to that eventually. Shuddering thought....

 

[Mainerik]

@Jiangnan

 

[steppeWolff]

China and India targeting each other's dams with missiles could be a really really bad idea. But it may get to that eventually. Shuddering thought....

Targeting dams isn't something uncommon. Russians did it in ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, and the once parched Crimea is again thriving.

Same can happen with the Indian dams. They know it, we know it.

 

[Egyptian]

Targeting dams isn't something uncommon. Russians did it in ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, and the once parched Crimea is again thriving.

Same can happen with the Indian dams. They know it, we know it.

Targetting of dams will most likely end up being the next Indian Pakistani war initiater- Ethiopia has issues with Egypt over the nile

 

[steppeWolff]

Targetting of dams will most likely end up being the next Indian Pakistani war initiater

A war will happen nonetheless if the water gets restricted.

Indus can't get restricted as 95% of it comes from our territories and the geography and terrain makes any effort impractical.

Jhelum cant get diverted too, atleast not in a meaningful way, whatever can requires a herculean effort and 10-20 years.

Chenab is the most vulnerable river as Indian "can" divert substantial amount of waters. Pakistan already has severe water scarcity and agricultural output barely able to sustain us.

So in any case, a war would be inevitable if Indians messed with our water resources. And the top brass and defence and information ministry of Pakistan is on record for implying that any actions of water restriction would incur a heavy response. The political elite also has a big chunk of feudals and landlords from Punjab and Sindh in it, all of whom depend on the water resources. So all of this would actually hit the elites too.

 

[Bilal9]

A war will happen nonetheless if the water gets restricted.

Indus can't get restricted as 95% of it comes from our territories and the geography and terrain makes any effort impractical.

Jhelum cant get diverted too, atleast not in a meaningful way, whatever can requires a herculean effort and 10-20 years.

Chenab is the most vulnerable river as Indian "can" divert substantial amount of waters. Pakistan already has severe water scarcity and agricultural output barely able to sustain us.

So in any case, a war would be inevitable if Indians messed with our water resources. And the top brass and defence and information ministry of Pakistan is on record for implying that any actions of water restriction would incur a heavy response. The political elite also has a big chunk of feudals and landlords from Punjab and Sindh in it, all of whom depend on the water resources. So all of this would actually hit the elites too.

Sorry if this is a bit off topic - but Indians have been withholding 90% of the upper riparian water with no consequence from Bangladesh for over 50 years while Sheikh and his family sold us down the river by not raising a peep about it, while our rivers turned into deserts.

Other than targeting dams with bombs (extreme prospect), what is more likely to happen (at least in the case for Bangladesh where Indians have unilaterally dammed the Teesta and Brahmaputra over half a dozen times to divert water) is China restricting/diverting water BEFORE it gets to Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh adjacent to Eastern Tibet.

In spite of there being a Joint River Commission to ensure that Bangladesh gets its justly rightful share of water, Indians as usual are less than honest about it. Now Bangladesh is going to involve China, time for hemming/hawing and dragging of feet is over for Indians.

Indians are deathly afraid of this Chinese damming prospect upstream and have started to voice things as such. The time when they could do whatever they willy-nilly they like to do with multi-national rivers is over, with the magic wand of control going to Chinese hands.

All the money they spent damming the Brahmaputra/Yarlang Tsangpo (at least strategic-wise) will go to the wastebasket of history, so to speak. There won't be a flow of water to speak of.

On our borders, we are constructing a huge catchment basin just South of the Indian border where Teesta enters Bangladesh.

Indian hegemony of releasing waters in the monsoon and withholding water in dry season will be foiled handily.

And last word on this - accumulation of trapped sediments, which are a dam's death knell. Over the period of 25 years, all dams (including Indian dams) will lose 25% of their catchment capacity and in 50 years, they will hardly hold water.

3,700 Dams In India Will Lose 26% Storage Capacity Due To Sedimentation By 2050: UN Study

In 2022, the Asia-Pacific region, the world's most heavily dammed region, is estimated to have lost 13 per cent of its initial dam storage capacity. It will have lost nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of initial storage capacity by mid-century.

www.outlookindia.com

Same reason why sediment is causing a large area in the Bay of Bengal rise up to populate Bangladesh times half - again.

29 islands with a combined area of 125,370 acres (507 square kilometres) had emerged from the Bay of Bengal since 2007. Every year Himalayan rivers carry an estimated one billion tones of silts and deposit them in the Bay of Bengal off the coast of Bangladesh, forming islands in the shallow waters. Many of these islands, known as chars in Bangladesh, are already inhabited and experts told AFP they could mitigate the threat posed by global warming.

https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/324789/how-bangladesh-is-gaining-land-in-the-bay-of

This is why Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar blames the recurring floods in Bihar to the Farakka dam downstream of Bihar, the Ganges river has no depth to hold water (too much deposited sediment, and floods the banks too easily, while Indians are too cheap to dredge it). He wants the dam demolished.

Karma is a B*tch. Fighting with nature, it wins every time.

Sorry to post off topic stuff, but I wanted to illustrate a point.

 

[Vsdoc]

A war will happen nonetheless if the water gets restricted.

Indus can't get restricted as 95% of it comes from our territories and the geography and terrain makes any effort impractical.

Jhelum cant get diverted too, atleast not in a meaningful way, whatever can requires a herculean effort and 10-20 years.

Chenab is the most vulnerable river as Indian "can" divert substantial amount of waters. Pakistan already has severe water scarcity and agricultural output barely able to sustain us.

So in any case, a war would be inevitable if Indians messed with our water resources. And the top brass and defence and information ministry of Pakistan is on record for implying that any actions of water restriction would incur a heavy response. The political elite also has a big chunk of feudals and landlords from Punjab and Sindh in it, all of whom depend on the water resources. So all of this would actually hit the elites too.

India has just demonstrated to you what will happen when war starts next.

Keep fingering us.

We will keep raising the cost for Pakistan.

Till Pakistan sues for peace.

As it did this time as well. Like every time we have gone to war.

Akkal tumhari aani nahin.