Indian Defense
Krishna with Flute
Senior Member
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2024
- Messages
- 4,178
- Reaction score
- 2,011
- Points
- 209
- Axis Group
Date of Event:
Aug 30, 2025
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August 29, 20255:05 PM GMT+5:30Updated 22 hours ago
Item 1 of 2 Labourers load goods onto a supply truck at a market area in India's financial capital Mumbai, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Hemanshi Kamani
[1/2]Labourers load goods onto a supply truck at a market area in India's financial capital Mumbai, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Hemanshi Kamani Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Aug 29 (Reuters) - India's economy unexpectedly expanded 7.8% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, picking up from 7.4% in the previous three months, data released on Friday showed.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast growth likely cooled to 6.7% in the quarter and said it would continue to slow as a sharp hike in U.S. tariffs threatens Indian exporters and jobs.
Get the latest news from India and how it matters to the world with the Reuters India File newsletter. Sign up here.
"Besides, the effective macro hit from the 50% tariff imposition will start to feed through exports and have a domino effect on employment, wages and private consumption. This could further dampen private investment outlook and hinder growth,
"However, on the face of it, softer deflator effect and some consumption buffer from GST cuts could offset the hit in real GDP growth as we move to calendar year 2026."
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"However, we remain fairly cautious on the way ahead amid expected slowdown in exports from higher tariffs along with deferring in production ahead of GST rate cuts.
"We expect some policy interventions to help offset the adverse impact of the tariff impact on exporters."
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"Amidst continuing uncertainty, we maintain our baseline GDP growth forecast at 6.0% for FY2026.
"The sharper-than-expected GDP growth print, which represents an acceleration over the previous quarter, has doused any expectations that the tariff-related turmoil could prompt monetary easing in the October 2025 policy review."
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"A bigger watch factor is the sub-9% nominal GDP growth, which has second derivative impact on tax collections and corporate profit performance.
"Markets will switch focus to the catalysts for rest of the year, which faces an interplay of tariff-related impact, passage of front-loading of exports, boost from GST rationalisation and government spending trend with an eye on revenues."
My News
Instant View: India's economy grows 7.8% in April-June quarter
By ReutersAugust 29, 20255:05 PM GMT+5:30Updated 22 hours ago
Item 1 of 2 Labourers load goods onto a supply truck at a market area in India's financial capital Mumbai, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Hemanshi Kamani
[1/2]Labourers load goods onto a supply truck at a market area in India's financial capital Mumbai, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Hemanshi Kamani Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Aug 29 (Reuters) - India's economy unexpectedly expanded 7.8% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, picking up from 7.4% in the previous three months, data released on Friday showed.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast growth likely cooled to 6.7% in the quarter and said it would continue to slow as a sharp hike in U.S. tariffs threatens Indian exporters and jobs.
Get the latest news from India and how it matters to the world with the Reuters India File newsletter. Sign up here.
MADHAVI ARORA, LEAD ECONOMIST, EMKAY GLOBAL, MUMBAI
"The super healthy GDP growth print in the first quarter has gotten a temporary boost from extremely soft deflator, front-loaded government spending (unlike last year), along with front-loaded exports to the US. Some of these factors will reverse as we move ahead."Besides, the effective macro hit from the 50% tariff imposition will start to feed through exports and have a domino effect on employment, wages and private consumption. This could further dampen private investment outlook and hinder growth,
"However, on the face of it, softer deflator effect and some consumption buffer from GST cuts could offset the hit in real GDP growth as we move to calendar year 2026."
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UPASNA BHARDWAJ, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK, MUMBAI
"The sharply higher-than-expected first-quarter GDP data provides a reasonable upside to our earlier full-year estimate of 6.2%."However, we remain fairly cautious on the way ahead amid expected slowdown in exports from higher tariffs along with deferring in production ahead of GST rate cuts.
"We expect some policy interventions to help offset the adverse impact of the tariff impact on exporters."
ADITI NAYAR, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ICRA, GURUGRAM
"After the unexpectedly strong first quarter of FY2026, a lower year-over-year momentum of government capex and the looming hit to exports from the U.S. tariff and penalties would dampen growth prints in the coming quarters, notwithstanding the balm offered by GST rationalisation.Advertisement · Scroll to continue
"Amidst continuing uncertainty, we maintain our baseline GDP growth forecast at 6.0% for FY2026.
"The sharper-than-expected GDP growth print, which represents an acceleration over the previous quarter, has doused any expectations that the tariff-related turmoil could prompt monetary easing in the October 2025 policy review."
RADHIKA RAO, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DBS BANK, SINGAPORE
"A sharp upside surprise in growth numbers belied consensus expectations for a slowdown. This was a product of strong service sector output benefiting from low deflators, coupled with firm farm output, and a jump in revenue as well as capital government spending.Advertisement · Scroll to continue
"A bigger watch factor is the sub-9% nominal GDP growth, which has second derivative impact on tax collections and corporate profit performance.
"Markets will switch focus to the catalysts for rest of the year, which faces an interplay of tariff-related impact, passage of front-loading of exports, boost from GST rationalisation and government spending trend with an eye on revenues."
