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Gaza death toll 40% higher than recorded
Says Lancet study; Israeli forces bomb a group of Palestinians in eastern Gaza City
Gaza death toll 40% higher than recorded
Says Lancet study; Israeli forces bomb a group of Palestinians in eastern Gaza City
Buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from southern Israel, January 7, 2025. Photo: Reuters/Kai Pfaffenbach
Research published in The Lancet medical journal today estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of Israeli offensive was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.
The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas.
Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the offensive.
However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time.
Meanwhile, Gaza's rescue service yesterday said in a brief statement on Telegram that the Israeli forces bombed a group of Palestinians near the Shujayea roundabout in the east of Gaza City, reports Al Jazeera online.
The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.
That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.
The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.
The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble, reports AFP.
On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of offensive.
Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.
The researchers used a statistical method called "capture–recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.
The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.
The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.
The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.
"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.
The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.
Says Lancet study; Israeli forces bomb a group of Palestinians in eastern Gaza City
Buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from southern Israel, January 7, 2025. Photo: Reuters/Kai Pfaffenbach
Research published in The Lancet medical journal today estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of Israeli offensive was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.
The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas.
Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the offensive.
However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time.
Meanwhile, Gaza's rescue service yesterday said in a brief statement on Telegram that the Israeli forces bombed a group of Palestinians near the Shujayea roundabout in the east of Gaza City, reports Al Jazeera online.
The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.
That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.
The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.
The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble, reports AFP.
On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of offensive.
Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.
The researchers used a statistical method called "capture–recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.
The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.
The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.
The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.
"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.
The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.
