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Trumpâs Gaza plan derails Saudi-Israel ties: analysts
US president Donald Trumpâs plan to take over Gaza will imperil attempts to forge landmark ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel and fuel anti-American sentiment in the oil-rich kingdom, analysts said.

Trumpâs Gaza plan derails Saudi-Israel ties: analysts
Agence France-Presse . Riyadh 07 February, 2025, 19:08
Pro-Palestinian protesters attend a rally against US President Donald Trump's recent remarks on Gaza and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Sydney on February 7, 2025. | AFP photo
US president Donald Trumpâs plan to take over Gaza will imperil attempts to forge landmark ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel and fuel anti-American sentiment in the oil-rich kingdom, analysts said.
Trumpâs proposal to redevelop Gaza and oust the more than two million Palestinians living in the territory prompted a global backlash and enraged the Arab world, making it difficult for the Saudis to consider normalisation.
âIf this is going to be his policy, he shut the door on Saudi recognition of Israel,â James Dorsey, researcher at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore, said.
Recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia, home to Islamâs holiest sites, is seen as a grand prize of Middle East diplomacy intended to calm chronic tensions in the region.
But Saudi Arabia, the worldâs biggest oil exporter and the Middle Eastâs largest economy, now faces the spectre of instability on its borders if neighbouring Jordan and Egypt suddenly house large numbers of Gaza exiles.
At the same time, Riyadh must maintain cordial relations with Washington, its long-time security guarantor and bulwark against key regional player Iran.
âWhen it comes to security, Saudi Arabia has nowhere to go but to Washington,â Dorsey said. âThereâs nobody else. Itâs not China. Theyâre not willing and theyâre not able.
âAnd post-Ukraine, do you want to rely on Russia?â
The Saudis were engaged in tentative talks on normalisation via the United States until the outbreak of the Gaza war, when they paused the negotiations and hardened their position.
They reacted with unusual speed to Trumpâs proposal, made during an appearance with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington.
About an hour after his comments, at around 4:00am Saudi time, the foreign ministry posted a statement on X that âreaffirms its unequivocal rejection of attempts to displace the Palestinian people from their landâ.
In the same statement, the Saudis rejected Netanyahuâs comment that normalisation was âgoing to happenâ, repeating their insistence there would be no ties without a Palestinian state.
Trumpâs plan carries real risks for Riyadh, which is throwing everything at an ambitious post-oil economic makeover that relies on stability to attract business and tourism.
If Gazans are displaced to Egypt and Jordan, it âwill weaken two countries essential to regional stability and particularly to Saudi securityâ, said Saudi researcher Aziz Alghashian.
âTrumpâs plan, coupled with Netanyahuâs approach, poses major risks for Saudi Arabia.
âIt highlights that they are not true partners for peace in Riyadhâs eyes â especially Netanyahu, who appears to want all the benefits without making concessions.â
Trumpâs declarations âwill further destabilise the region and fuel anti-American sentiment, particularly in Saudi Arabiaâ, said Anna Jacobs, of the International Crisis Group think tank.
âHe is making Saudi-Israel normalisation harder, not easier.â
Andreas Krieg of Kingâs College London said Saudi Arabia would not agree meekly to normalisation if ordered by Washington.
Prior to the Gaza war, the Saudis were negotiating for security guarantees and help building a civilian nuclear programme in return for Israeli ties.
âThey are not a US vassal state and so theyâre not just taking a diktat from Trump,â said Andreas Krieg of Kingâs College London.
âAnd I think it will stand firm on their positions, willing to negotiate here and there. But the principal red lines remain.
âNobody in Saudi Arabia has an interest in selling out Palestinian statehood. That is the last and the most important bargaining chip that the Saudis have in terms of authority and legitimacy in the Arab and Muslim world.â
But the question is how Saudi Arabia and its 39-year-old de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, will proceed.
âI donât think that the Saudis will take any major steps now,â said Krieg.
âThey obviously have their own levers that they can use for pressure on America, particularly in the energy sector. I donât think the Saudis will want to use it at this point.â
Agence France-Presse . Riyadh 07 February, 2025, 19:08
Pro-Palestinian protesters attend a rally against US President Donald Trump's recent remarks on Gaza and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Sydney on February 7, 2025. | AFP photo
US president Donald Trumpâs plan to take over Gaza will imperil attempts to forge landmark ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel and fuel anti-American sentiment in the oil-rich kingdom, analysts said.
Trumpâs proposal to redevelop Gaza and oust the more than two million Palestinians living in the territory prompted a global backlash and enraged the Arab world, making it difficult for the Saudis to consider normalisation.
âIf this is going to be his policy, he shut the door on Saudi recognition of Israel,â James Dorsey, researcher at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore, said.
Recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia, home to Islamâs holiest sites, is seen as a grand prize of Middle East diplomacy intended to calm chronic tensions in the region.
But Saudi Arabia, the worldâs biggest oil exporter and the Middle Eastâs largest economy, now faces the spectre of instability on its borders if neighbouring Jordan and Egypt suddenly house large numbers of Gaza exiles.
At the same time, Riyadh must maintain cordial relations with Washington, its long-time security guarantor and bulwark against key regional player Iran.
âWhen it comes to security, Saudi Arabia has nowhere to go but to Washington,â Dorsey said. âThereâs nobody else. Itâs not China. Theyâre not willing and theyâre not able.
âAnd post-Ukraine, do you want to rely on Russia?â
The Saudis were engaged in tentative talks on normalisation via the United States until the outbreak of the Gaza war, when they paused the negotiations and hardened their position.
They reacted with unusual speed to Trumpâs proposal, made during an appearance with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington.
About an hour after his comments, at around 4:00am Saudi time, the foreign ministry posted a statement on X that âreaffirms its unequivocal rejection of attempts to displace the Palestinian people from their landâ.
In the same statement, the Saudis rejected Netanyahuâs comment that normalisation was âgoing to happenâ, repeating their insistence there would be no ties without a Palestinian state.
Trumpâs plan carries real risks for Riyadh, which is throwing everything at an ambitious post-oil economic makeover that relies on stability to attract business and tourism.
If Gazans are displaced to Egypt and Jordan, it âwill weaken two countries essential to regional stability and particularly to Saudi securityâ, said Saudi researcher Aziz Alghashian.
âTrumpâs plan, coupled with Netanyahuâs approach, poses major risks for Saudi Arabia.
âIt highlights that they are not true partners for peace in Riyadhâs eyes â especially Netanyahu, who appears to want all the benefits without making concessions.â
Trumpâs declarations âwill further destabilise the region and fuel anti-American sentiment, particularly in Saudi Arabiaâ, said Anna Jacobs, of the International Crisis Group think tank.
âHe is making Saudi-Israel normalisation harder, not easier.â
Andreas Krieg of Kingâs College London said Saudi Arabia would not agree meekly to normalisation if ordered by Washington.
Prior to the Gaza war, the Saudis were negotiating for security guarantees and help building a civilian nuclear programme in return for Israeli ties.
âThey are not a US vassal state and so theyâre not just taking a diktat from Trump,â said Andreas Krieg of Kingâs College London.
âAnd I think it will stand firm on their positions, willing to negotiate here and there. But the principal red lines remain.
âNobody in Saudi Arabia has an interest in selling out Palestinian statehood. That is the last and the most important bargaining chip that the Saudis have in terms of authority and legitimacy in the Arab and Muslim world.â
But the question is how Saudi Arabia and its 39-year-old de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, will proceed.
âI donât think that the Saudis will take any major steps now,â said Krieg.
âThey obviously have their own levers that they can use for pressure on America, particularly in the energy sector. I donât think the Saudis will want to use it at this point.â