[🇺🇦] Monitoring Russian and Ukraine War.

[Saif]

Ballistic missile strike on Ukraine a warning to West

The Kremlin said yesterday that a strike on Ukraine using a newly-developed hypersonic ballistic missile was designed to warn the West that Moscow will respond to moves by the US and Britain to let Kyiv strike Russia with their missiles.

www.thedailystar.net

Ballistic missile strike on Ukraine a warning to West
Says Kremlin; Moscow speeds up its advance in northeast Ukraine
​

• Russia claims it 'derailed' Kyiv's war plans​
• Drone attack on Ukraine's Sumy region kills two​
• Nato, Ukraine to meet over Russian missile strike​

The Kremlin said yesterday that a strike on Ukraine using a newly-developed hypersonic ballistic missile was designed to warn the West that Moscow will respond to moves by the US and Britain to let Kyiv strike Russia with their missiles.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was speaking a day after President Vladimir Putin said Moscow had fired the new missile - the Oreshnik or Hazel Tree - at a Ukrainian military facility.

Putin's confirmation of hypersonic missile use contradicts Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's claim that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Peskov said Russia had not been obliged to warn the United States about the strike, but had informed the US 30 minutes before the launch anyway. Putin remained open to dialogue, Peskov said.

Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov said yesterday that Russian forces had accelerated their advance in the north-east of Ukraine and had ground down the Ukrainian army's best units there.

"This work we have done here now has crushed the best (Ukrainian) units. Now the advance has accelerated. We have derailed their entire 2025 campaign," said Belousov.

A Russian drone attack on the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy killed two people and injured 12 yesterday morning, regional authorities said.

Twelve apartment buildings, five private residences, a store and three cars were damaged after three drones attacked the city around 5:00 am, reports Reuters.

Meanwhile, Nato and Ukraine will hold talks next week in Brussels over Russia's firing of an experimental hypersonic intermediate-range missile, diplomats said yesterday.

Ambassadors from countries in the Nato-Ukraine Council will meet on Tuesday to discuss the strike on the city of Dnipro, officials told AFP.

A spokeswoman for Nato said: "Deploying this capability will neither change the course of the conflict nor deter Nato allies from supporting Ukraine."

China yesterday reiterated calls for "calm" and "restraint" by all parties in the Ukraine war after Russia confirmed it fired an experimental "hypersonic" ballistic missile.

"All parties should remain calm and exercise restraint, work to de-escalate the situation through dialogue and consultation, and create conditions for an early ceasefire," foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian told a regular briefing.​

 

[Saif]

Ukraine lost over 40pc of land it seized

Ukraine has lost over 40 percent of the territory in Russia’s Kursk region that it captured in a surprise incursion in August as Russian forces have mounted waves of counter-assaults, a senior Ukrainian military source said.

www.thedailystar.net

RUSSIA’S KURSK REGION
Ukraine lost over 40pc of land it seized

Ukraine has lost over 40 percent of the territory in Russia's Kursk region that it captured in a surprise incursion in August as Russian forces have mounted waves of counter-assaults, a senior Ukrainian military source said.

The source said Russia had deployed 59,000 troops to the Kursk region since Kyiv's forces swept in and advanced swiftly, catching Moscow unprepared 2-1/2 years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"At most, we controlled about 1,376 square kilometres (531 square miles), now of course this territory is smaller. The enemy is increasing its counterattacks," the source said.

"Now we control approximately 800 square kilometres. We will hold this territory for as long as is militarily appropriate."

With the thrust into Kursk, Kyiv aimed to stem Russian attacks in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, force Russia to pull back forces gradually advancing in the east and give Kyiv extra leverage in any future peace negotiations.​

 

[Saif]

Russia to use new missile again in 'combat conditions': Putin

Russia has a stock of advanced new missiles "ready for use," President Vladimir Putin announced, a day after the country deployed a new ballistic missile in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, reports UNB with inputs from BBC. In an unscheduled televised address, Putin revealed that t

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Russia to use new missile again in 'combat conditions': Putin
Published :
Nov 23, 2024 13:42
Updated :
Nov 23, 2024 13:42

Russia has a stock of advanced new missiles "ready for use," President Vladimir Putin announced, a day after the country deployed a new ballistic missile in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, reports UNB with inputs from BBC.

In an unscheduled televised address, Putin revealed that the Oreshnik missile, touted as being impossible to intercept, will undergo further tests, including under "combat conditions."

The missile's deployment marks an escalation in the conflict, which also saw Ukraine use US and British missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time this week.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged global leaders to deliver a "serious response" to Putin's actions, stressing the need for the Russian leader to "face real consequences." Zelensky also appealed for enhanced air defense systems from Western allies, including the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) or upgraded Patriot missile systems, according to Interfax-Ukraine.

In his address, Putin claimed the hypersonic Oreshnik missiles, capable of traveling at 10 times the speed of sound, would soon enter mass production. He framed their deployment as a response to Ukraine's use of Storm Shadow and Atacms missiles.

Thursday's strike on Dnipro was notable for its intensity, with eyewitnesses reporting three hours of continuous explosions. Ukrainian officials described the missile’s power as akin to an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

The week’s developments have sparked warnings from international leaders about the potential for broader conflict.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the war had reached a decisive phase with a heightened risk of global escalation. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban advised taking Putin’s warnings "seriously," citing Russia's reliance on military power in policymaking.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un added that the threat of nuclear war had never been greater, accusing the US of pursuing an "aggressive and hostile" stance.

North Korea has reportedly sent thousands of troops to support Russia, with Ukrainian forces encountering them in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops have gained territory.

US President Joe Biden confirmed granting Ukraine permission to use longer-range Atacms missiles against Russian targets, citing Moscow's use of North Korean troops as justification.

The conflict, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has entered a critical stage as both sides seek to gain the upper hand ahead of Donald Trump’s anticipated presidency in January. Trump has pledged to end the war "within hours" without detailing his strategy.​

 

[Saif]

Russia, Ukraine trade aerial attacks amid escalation fears

Russia said on Monday its air defences had shot down eight ballistic missiles fired by Ukraine, amid heightened tensions over Kyiv’s use of Western-supplied long-range arms against Russia...

www.newagebd.net

Russia, Ukraine trade aerial attacks amid escalation fears
Agence France-Presse . Kyiv, Ukraine 26 November, 2024, 00:49

Russia said on Monday its air defences had shot down eight ballistic missiles fired by Ukraine, amid heightened tensions over Kyiv’s use of Western-supplied long-range arms against Russia.

Ukraine also targeted a Russian fuel depot while Russian aerial attacks wounded more than 30 in strikes on Odesa and Kharkiv, the latest wave of attacks.

The nearly three-year war has escalated dramatically over the last week, with both sides deploying new weapons as they try to secure an upper hand on the battlefield before Donald Trump enters the White House in January.

The Republican has vowed to secure a peace deal, though has not said how, and is a critic of American aid to Kyiv.

Ukraine fired US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles into Russia for the first time last week after receiving approval from Washington, prompting a furious reaction from Moscow.

‘Air defence forces shot down eight ballistic missiles,’ the Russian defence ministry said in a daily briefing on Monday, without saying what kind of missiles were used or where they were shot down.

Moscow and Kyiv have escalated their use of long-range missiles after the United States gave Ukraine approval, long requested by Kyiv, to use the weapons against Russia.

Moscow fired an experimental hypersonic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro last Thursday, with President Vladimir Putin warning the weapon, which he called Oreshnik, could be used again in combat.

Adding to tensions, a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian border town of Shebekino on Monday killed a civilian, according to local governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.

The attack wounded another man, he said, while separate Ukrainian shelling damaged several apartments.

Ukrainian drones meanwhile hit a fuel facility in the Russian region of Kaluga, a source in Ukrainian military intelligence said, in Kyiv’s latest attack on Moscow’s energy sites.

That claim came as Ukrainian authorities said a Russian missile strike had wounded nearly two dozen people in the eastern city of Kharkiv.


‘As a result of an operation by the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, a fuel and energy facility in the Kaluga region of Russia was hit overnight,’ the source said.

The Russian governor of Kaluga, which lies just south of the capital Moscow, said air defence systems in the region had downed eight drones and confirmed that an ‘industrial enterprise’ had caught fire.

Unverified images on social media of the alleged attack showed tracer ammunition cutting through the night sky and a large blaze next to two industrial chimneys.

‘The target of the attack was an oil depot of Kaluganefteprodukt JSC, which is involved in supporting Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine,’ the source said.

On Monday, AFP journalists in Kharkiv saw residents and rescue workers assessing the damage and clearing rubble after the Russian strike on the town that has come under repeated bombardments since the Kremlin launched its invasion in early 2022.

Mayor Igor Terekhov said 23 people had been wounded and some 40 buildings were damaged, including official or administrative offices.

The Ukrainian air force said it had shot down 71 drones — including the Iranian-designed Shahed — launched by Russian forces while another 71 were ‘presumably’ downed using electronic jamming defensive systems.

‘Previously, the Shahed attacks were carried out only at night. Now the enemy is using attack UAVs during the daytime as well,’ the air force said in its statement.

In the southern port city of Odesa meanwhile, authorities said a Russian attack had damaged infrastructure facilities and wounded 11 people.

‘These Russian attacks on Ukrainian life can be stopped—through pressure, sanctions, blocking the occupiers’ access to the components they use to create the tools of this terror, military aid packages for Ukraine, and a determination that must be unwavering,’ president Volodymyr Zelensky said.​

 

[Saif]

Ukraine studies debris from new Russian ballistic missile

Ukrainian investigators are studying the debris of a new Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile that was fired at the city of Dnipro on Thursday, the first time such a powerful weapon has been used in the war. Reuters was among a small group of reporters given access to the wreckage of the m

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Ukraine studies debris from new Russian ballistic missile
REUTERS
Published :
Nov 25, 2024 12:57
Updated :
Nov 25, 2024 12:57

Ukrainian investigators are studying the debris of a new Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile that was fired at the city of Dnipro on Thursday, the first time such a powerful weapon has been used in the war.

Reuters was among a small group of reporters given access to the wreckage of the missile on Sunday. Reporters were asked not disclose the exact location of the site for security reasons.

The scorched and crumbled pieces of debris were laid out in a hanger at a facility which conducts weapons forensics. Ukrainian experts study such debris to gain insight into Russian military supply chains, production and how to develop counter-measures.

Russia has dubbed the missile the Oreshnik (Hazel Tree) and said it is impossible to intercept it with air defences. Ukraine has said the weapon reached a top speed of more than 13,000 kph (8,000 mph) on its way towards Dnipro on Thursday.

Intermediate-range ballistic missiles have a range of up to 5,500 kilometres.

Two state experts provided cautious assessments, saying only that the weapon was ballistic, flew on a ballistic trajectory and that the strike resulted in civilian damage. They declined to take questions or give their surnames.

"These are preliminary conclusions and to say something more concrete requires time and careful study of the remains of the missile," said Ivan, one of the experts.

"This is the first time that such remnants of such a missile have been discovered on the territory of Ukraine," said Oleh, an investigator for the Security Service of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called the use of the weapon a severe escalation and urged his allies to respond. Ukraine originally said the weapon appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile.

The Kremlin later said it fired a new intermediate-range missile at a Ukrainian military target in Dnipro in response to Kyiv striking Russia with US and British made missiles for the first time after the US granted its approval.

The US military has said the missile's design is based on the longer-range RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The new missile was experimental and Russia likely possessed only a handful of them, they have said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday Moscow would keep testing the missile in combat and had a stock ready to use.

Much remains unclear for now, including the extent of the damage caused by the missile. Ukraine seldom discloses damage to military targets, fearing such information would help Moscow.​

 

[Saif]

Russia hits Ukraine with ‘record’ drone barrage

Russian forces staged their largest ever drone attack on Ukraine overnight, cutting power to much of the western region of Ternopil and damaging residential buildings in Kyiv region, Ukraine’s officials said yesterday.

www.thedailystar.net

Russia hits Ukraine with ‘record’ drone barrage
Western region hit by power outage

Russian forces staged their largest ever drone attack on Ukraine overnight, cutting power to much of the western region of Ternopil and damaging residential buildings in Kyiv region, Ukraine's officials said yesterday.

Intensified nightly drone attacks on Ukrainian cities are coinciding with a major push by Russia along frontlines in Ukraine's east, where Russian forces have made some of the largest monthly territorial gains since 2022.

Of 188 drones used overnight, Ukraine shot down 76 and lost track of 96, likely due to active electronic warfare, the air force said. Five drones headed towards Belarus.

"The enemy launched a record number of Shahed attack UAVs and unidentified drones ...," it said, in addition to using four Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Russia uses cheaply-produced "suicide" drones and low-cost "decoy" drones, which tie up Ukrainian air defences.

"Unfortunately, there were hits to critical infrastructure facilities, and private and apartment buildings were damaged in several regions due to the massive drone attack," an air force statement said, adding that no casualties had been reported.

The attack damaged the power grid in Ternopil, a major city in western Ukraine, and cut power to around 70 percent of the region, governor Vyacheslav Nehoda said on national television.

Ternopil, some 220 km (134 miles) east of Nato-member Poland, and the surrounding region had a population of more than a million before the February 2022 Russian invasion, which drove many Ukrainians west.

"The consequences are bad because the facility was significantly affected and this will have impact on the power supply of the entire region for a long time," Nehoda said.

The attack also cut off water and disrupted heat supplies, the head of the regional defence headquarters Serhiy Nadal said via the Telegram messaging app.​

 

[Lulldapull]

This is how warfare is evolving now. A whole new frontier. Gone are the tanks, the APC's and the warplanes:

 

[Saif]

Russia launches massive aerial attack on Ukraine’s energy sector

Russia’s army on Thursday launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s energy sector, forcing emergency power outages as temperatures dropped to freezing across the country.

www.newagebd.net

Russia launches massive aerial attack on Ukraine’s energy sector
Agence France-Presse . Kyiv, Ukraine 29 November, 2024, 01:07

Ukrainian rescuers work to extinguish a fire at an energy infrastructure facility following a missile attack in Lutsk, Volyn region, on Thursday amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. | AFP photo

Russia’s army on Thursday launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s energy sector, forcing emergency power outages as temperatures dropped to freezing across the country.

Ukraine’s energy grid has been heavily targeted since Russia invaded in February 2022, with Kyiv accusing Moscow of ‘terror’ tactics by trying to plunge Ukrainian cities into darkness and cut off heating to civilians throughout the winter.

The overnight strikes come after two weeks of dramatic escalation that has seen both sides launch new weapons to gain an upper hand ahead of Donald Trump being inaugurated as US president in January.

Ukraine’s energy minister German Galushchenko said power infrastructure was ‘under massive enemy attack’ after a countrywide air alert was issued for incoming missiles.

The air force reported a string of Russian cruise missiles and attack drones heading for cities across the country, including the capital Kyiv, Kharkiv in the northeast and the Black Sea port city of Odesa.

‘Once again, the energy sector is under massive enemy attack. Attacks on energy facilities are taking place across Ukraine,’ Galushchenko said.

National power grid operator Ukrenergo had ‘urgently introduced emergency power cuts’, he added, as temperatures dropped to around 0 degrees Celsius.

Energy provider DTEK said Ukrenergo was introducing emergency power outages in the regions of Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro and Donetsk.

The nationwide attack was ongoing as of 08:00am (0600 GMT), according to messages from the air force.

‘As soon as the security situation will allow it, the consequences of the strikes will be specified,’ Galushchenko said.

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff said the wave of attacks showed Russia was ‘continuing their tactics of terror.’

‘They stockpiled missiles for attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, for warfare against civilians during winter,’ Andriy Yermak said in a post on Telegram and pledged that Ukraine would respond.

A senior UN official, Rosemary DiCarlo, this month warned Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure may make this winter the ‘harshest since the start of the war’.

Russia earlier this week said it was preparing its own retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on its territory using US-supplied ATACMS missiles.

Ukraine has launched at least three attacks on Russian border regions with the missiles since the White House gave it permission to fire them on Russian territory.

Moscow responded to the first strike by firing a never-before-seen hypersonic ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

In an angry address to the nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the nuclear-capable missile could be used against Western countries if they let their arms be used by Ukraine to hit Russia.

Russia’s defence ministry said Thursday it had downed 25 Ukrainian drones fired overnight, including 14 over the southern Krasnodar territory — just to the east of the annexed Crimean peninsula.

Krasnodar’s governor said a woman was wounded by falling debris in the town of Slavyansk-on-Kuban, around 100 kilometres east of the Kerch bridge — the giant infrastructure project linking Crimea to Russia that Kyiv has heavily targeted throughout the war.

The latest missile salvo comes a day after US president-elect Trump named staunch loyalist and retired general Keith Kellogg as his Ukraine envoy, charged with ending the Russian invasion.

Trump campaigned on a platform of securing a swift end to the Ukraine war, boasting that he would quickly mediate a ceasefire deal — comments that have triggered concern in Kyiv that the US could push it to cede land.

Kellog, an 80-year-old national security veteran, co-authored a paper this year calling for Washington to leverage military aid as a means of pushing for peace talks.

The outgoing Joe Biden administration has urged Ukraine drop the minimum age of conscription to 18 to plug severe manpower shortages across the 1,000-kilometre front line.

Russian troops have been advancing in the east for months, where they have a manpower and ammunition advantage over Ukraine’s stretched forces.​

 

[Lulldapull]

Very happy about this development. Russians are pounding Ukraine and soon they’d start pounding Idlib too where Al-Turkiya is playing stupid once again on Netanyahu orders.

 

[Lulldapull]

Stout pig lies as usual:

 

[Sharma Ji]

rise of the machines scene

 

[Saif]

Russia fires 100 drones at Ukraine

Russia launched more than a hundred drones at Ukraine overnight and early Friday, killing one person and wounding eight others, officials said.

www.newagebd.net

Russia fires 100 drones at Ukraine
Agence France-Presse . Kyiv, Ukraine 30 November, 2024, 00:15

A woman walks next to a damaged hospital following a Russian drone attack in Kyiv, on Friday, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. | AFP photo

Russia launched more than a hundred drones at Ukraine overnight and early Friday, killing one person and wounding eight others, officials said.

The nearly three-year war has seen a sharp escalation in recent days, with Moscow pummelling Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of the winter.

Friday’s drone barrage came a day after Russia launched around 90 missiles on the war-torn country, cutting power to over a million people.

Moscow fired 132 drones overnight, of which ‘88 drones were shot down’ and ‘41 were lost, presumably due to defence countermeasures’, Ukraine’s air force said.

Air defences shot down drones over a dozen regions, while falling debris damaged a health care clinic in the capital Kyiv, according to the local mayor.

A drone attack killed a woman in the southern city of Kherson, the head of the local military administration Roman Mrochko said.

At least two regions suffered power cuts on Friday, Ukrainian electricity operator Ukrenergo said.

‘Emergency repair works are on-going around the clock. By the end of the day, the power company plans to restore power to the de-energised customers in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions,’ it said.

The latest strikes come as Ukraine enters a tough winter, with Russian forces stepping up aerial attacks and advancing on the eastern front.

Moscow said Friday it had seized the village of Rozdolne in the southern part of Ukraine’s Donbas region, where it has made a string of territorial gains in recent months.

Russia downed 47 attack drones fired overnight by Ukraine, mainly targeting the Rostov border region where a major fire broke out at an industrial site, authorities said.

Meanwhile, Kyiv said Russian authorities returned over 500 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers killed in combat, with most having died in the eastern Donetsk region.

Russia and Ukraine have been exchanging bodies and prisoners of war since the first months of the conflict — with casualties estimated to be high on both sides.

‘As a result of repatriation activities, the bodies of 502 fallen defenders were returned to territory controlled by the government of Ukraine,’ Kyiv’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said on social media.

The centre said that 397 of the bodies were returned from the embattled Donetsk region, where fighting is most intense.

It said 24 were returned from the eastern Lugansk region and 64 from the southern Zaporizhzhia area, while 17 were handed back from morgues on Russian territory.

‘We are grateful for the assistance of the International Committee of the Red Cross,’ Kyiv’s centre said.

It said the bodies will be taken for forensic medical examination and that ‘together with the expert institutions, the deceased will be identified as soon as possible.’

Russia, for its part, does not announce the return of its bodies.​

 

[Saif]

Nuclear attack unlikely despite Putin's warnings, US intelligence says

The US decision to allow Ukraine to fire American weapons deeper into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, which is unlikely, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly bellicose statements, five sources familiar with US intelligence told Reuters. But Russia is likel

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Nuclear attack unlikely despite Putin's warnings, US intelligence says
Published :
Nov 28, 2024 12:20
Updated :
Nov 28, 2024 12:20

Russian President Vladimir Putin conducts an exercise of Russia's strategic nuclear deterrence forces to train actions of officials on operating nuclear weapons with practical launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, via video link at the Kremlin, in Moscow, Russia October 29, 2024. Sputnik via REUTERS

The US decision to allow Ukraine to fire American weapons deeper into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, which is unlikely, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly bellicose statements, five sources familiar with US intelligence told Reuters.

But Russia is likely to expand a campaign of sabotage against European targets to increase pressure on the West over its support for Kyiv, said two senior officials, a lawmaker and two congressional aides briefed on the matter.

A series of intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded nuclear escalation was unlikely to result from a decision to loosen restrictions on Ukraine's use of US weapons. That view has not changed following President Joe Biden's changed US stance this month on weapons, said the sources, who were granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence.

"The assessments were consistent: The ATACMs weren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus," said one congressional aide briefed on the intelligence, referring to American missiles with a range of up to 190 miles (306 km).

Russia's launch of a new ballistic missile last week, which analysts say was meant as a warning to Washington and its European allies, has not changed that conclusion.

One of the five US officials said while Washington assessed that Russia would not seek to escalate with its nuclear forces, it would try to match what it views as US escalation. The official said fielding the new missile was part of that effort.

US officials said the intelligence has helped guide an often divisive debate over recent months inside Biden's administration about whether Washington loosening restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American weapons was worth the risk of angering Putin.

Officials initially resisted such a move, citing escalation concerns and uncertainty over how Putin would respond. Some of those officials, including in the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department, feared lethal retaliation on US military and diplomatic personnel and attacks on NATO allies.

Others were specifically worried about nuclear escalation. Biden changed his mind because of North Korea's entry into the war before the US presidential election, US officials have said.

Some officials now believe the escalation concerns, including the nuclear fears, were overblown but stress that the overall situation in Ukraine remains dangerous and that nuclear escalation is not out of the question. Russia's ability to find other covert ways of retaliating against the West remains a worry.

“Russia's hybrid response is a concern,” said Angela Stent, director of Eurasian, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University, referring to Russia’s sabotage in Europe.

“The chance of escalation was never not there. The concern now is greater.”

The White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the intelligence assessments.

REACTION AND COUNTER-REACTION

Since August, when Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, Moscow and Kyiv have been locked in a cycle of escalating moves and counter-moves.

Russia has enlisted help from North Korea, which sent between 11,000 and 12,000 soldiers to help its war effort, according to the United States.

The same day as Ukraine's first strike under the relaxed US policy, Russia changed its nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike.

Fear of nuclear escalation has been a factor in US officials' thinking since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. CIA Director William Burns has said there was a real risk in late 2022 that Russia could use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

Even so, the White House moved forward with Ukraine aid, sending billions of dollars' worth of military assistance.

The concerns faded for some officials as Putin did not act on his threats but remained central to how many in the administration weighed decisions on how the US should support Kyiv.

In May, the White House allowed Ukraine to use American missiles in limited circumstances to strike across the border but not deep inside Russia, citing risk of escalation by Moscow, marginal tactical benefit and a limited supply of ATACMs.

One of the intelligence assessments from early summer, drawn up at the White House's request, explained that strikes across the border from the Ukrainian city Kharkiv would have limited impact because 90% of Russian aircraft had been moved back from the border – out of distance of the short-range missiles.

But the assessments also noted while Putin often threatens to use nuclear weapons, Moscow is unlikely to take such a step in part because they do not provide a clear military benefit. Intelligence officials described the nuclear option as a last resort for Russia and that Putin would resort to other means of reprisal first, noting Russia was already engaged in sabotage and cyberattacks.

Still, some officials inside the White House and Pentagon argued that allowing Kyiv to use the missiles to strike inside Russia would put Kyiv, the US and American allies in unprecedented danger, provoking Putin to retaliate either through nuclear force or other deadly tactics outside the war zone.

Pentagon officials worried about attacks on US military bases.

THE NORTH KOREA FACTOR

The introduction of North Korean troops convinced the administration, particularly a group of officials at the White House and the Pentagon concerned about escalation, to allow the long-range strikes, said a senior US official.

Russia was making battlefield gains and the North Korean troops were viewed internally as escalation by Moscow necessitating a response from Washington, the official said.

Given the early intelligence assessments downplaying the risk of nuclear escalation, the nuclear fears were overstated and the decision to allow wider use of ATACMs came too late, said a senior US official and a lawmaker, citing Russia's recent advances.

Intelligence sources say Moscow's most robust and successful reprisal operations are likely to come through sabotage. Russian intelligence services have launched a massive international effort in Europe to intimidate countries who support Ukraine, one European diplomat said.

A US official added Moscow was actively looking to advance its "gray-zone" warfare against the West and that Russia has an extensive network of agents and it exploring options for using them.​

 

[Saif]

Ukraine pushes NATO for invite as Trump looms
Agence France-Presse . Brussels 04 December, 2024, 01:20

Ukraine insisted Tuesday that NATO membership was the only ‘real guarantee’ for its security as foreign ministers from the alliance looked set to rebuff Kyiv’s push for an invite ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency.

Trump has vowed to press for a quick deal to end Russia’s war, leaving Kyiv scrambling to position itself ahead of his January inauguration.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has said getting security guarantees from the Western alliance and supplies of key weaponry are prerequisites for Kyiv to start talking about halting its fight.

‘We are convinced that the only real guarantee of security for Ukraine, as well as a deterrent to further Russian aggression against Ukraine and other states, is Ukraine’s full membership in NATO,’ the foreign ministry in Kyiv said.

Zelensky said Sunday that Kyiv was hoping NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels with Ukraine’s top diplomat would issue ‘recommendations’ to grant his country a membership invitation.

‘But we have no illusions — there are some sceptical countries,’ he said.

Until now, the leaders of NATO heavyweights the United States and Germany have backed away from Ukrainian membership out of fear it could drag the alliance into a war with Russia.

Diplomats said that with the administration of US president Joe Biden on its way out and Germany chancellor Olaf Scholz’s future in doubt ahead of elections, Kyiv hoped their foreign ministers could have more leeway.

But US officials in private say the Biden administration will not back Ukraine’s push as they believe any offer would be rescinded by the president-elect.

NATO secretary general Mark Rutte pushed away questions over Ukraine’s possible membership and how it could play into any peace deal, saying the alliance needed to ‘concentrate’ on getting more weapons to Kyiv.

‘I would now argue that Ukraine doesn’t need more ideas on what a peace process could look like,’ Rutte said.

‘Make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to get to a position of strength when those peace talks start.’

Trump has said he could end Russia’s war in Ukraine in a matter of hours, but has given no details on how he intends to achieve that goal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned against any moves to place Ukraine under NATO’s security umbrella.

‘Such a potential decision is unacceptable to us,’ Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Trump’s new envoy on the Ukraine war, Keith Kellogg, has floated shelving Ukraine’s longstanding NATO ambitions as part of a peace deal — while still providing Kyiv security guarantees.

Rutte warned the incoming US administration that if Ukraine got a ‘bad deal’ it risked emboldening American rivals such as China and North Korea.

‘Whenever we get to a deal on Ukraine, it has to be a good deal,’ he said.

While moving Ukraine closer to the alliance appears unlikely right now, two Western diplomats said initial discussions had begun on whether European troops could be deployed to enforce any eventual ceasefire.

‘In many countries, there is very serious thinking on various possible scenarios and how we can contribute to security guarantees,’ a European diplomat said.

‘We need to be able to have an idea to communicate to the US.’

As Ukraine presses on the diplomatic side, its forces are buckling across the eastern front in the face of Russia’s grinding offensive.

Russia said Tuesday that it had captured two more southeastern villages, while Ukraine said it had repelled a push across a key river.

Kyiv is looking to wring all the weaponry it can from the Biden administration amid fears Trump will cut aid.

Washington on Monday announced an additional $725 million military aid package for Ukraine.

Kyiv has called on allies to provide air defence systems capable of shooting down the new Oreshnik experimental ballistic missile fired by Moscow.

Those include the American Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system and the Arrow system developed by Israel and the US, officials said.

NATO diplomats said they doubted Washington would move quickly to provide Ukraine the new systems, given how long it took Biden to give the green light on delivering less-modern Patriot defences.​

 

[Saif]

Nato to counter Russian ‘hybrid war’: Mark Rutte

Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte yesterday said the alliance had agreed on “proactive measures” to counter Russia’s campaign of hybrid attacks against its members.

www.thedailystar.net

Nato to counter Russian ‘hybrid war’: Mark Rutte

Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte yesterday said the alliance had agreed on "proactive measures" to counter Russia's campaign of hybrid attacks against its members.

The West has accused Moscow of being behind a string of sabotage attacks on European soil aimed at deterring Ukraine's backers from sending support to Kyiv.

"Allies are working very hard to make sure when it comes to sabotage, cyber-attacks, energy blackmail, that we take all the measures necessary to counter that," Rutte said after talks with Nato foreign ministers.

"These include enhanced intelligence exchange, more exercises, better protection of critical infrastructure, improved cyber defence, and tougher action against Russia's shadow fleet of oil exporting ships."

Nato officials said the alliance was working on a new strategy to combat Russian and Chinese hostile actions for a summit next June in The Hague.

The alleged hybrid campaign poses a problem for NATO as it exists in a grey zone often seen as beneath the level of threat that could trigger the alliance's mutual defence clause.​