[🇵🇰] Pakistan General Elections -- 2024

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Electoral crown jewel Punjab ready for scintillating contests​

Feb 08,2024

Registered voters of the country’s most populous province will head to the ballot box to vote for candidates from their respective constituencies later today; and as always whosoever gets a majority in Punjab, will be in pole position to form a government in the Centre.

The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP), Pakistan Muslim League Quaid (PML-Q), and the independent candidates of the now symbol-less Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), will step into electoral battle against each other for the 141 seats of the National Assembly from the province and 297 seats in the Punjab Assembly.

However, political analysts expect that on most seats up for grabs in the province, a resurgent PML-N and a mired in legal controversies PTI, will go head-to-head, despite the latter being stripped of its famous cricket bat symbol and most of its senior leadership presently incarcerated.

 

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The elusive mirage of level playing field​

Feb 08,

As Pakistan gears up for its 12th general elections, the dream of a "level playing field" remains an elusive mirage. The historical pendulum of victimisation and strategic manoeuvring continues to shape electoral outcomes, leaving voters to grapple with the complexities of a political landscape where fairness is often sacrificed at the altar of power dynamics.

In the intricate dance of power dynamics, the hurdles faced by PTI shed light on a historical pattern of political victimisation and strategic manoeuvring.

In the wake of the events on May 9, where PTI supporters face allegations of breaching military installations, the party is confronted with unparalleled difficulties.

Prominent figures such as Imran Khan, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, and Pervaiz Elahi now reside behind bars. Several influential members are either in hiding or are barred from participating in elections.

 

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Winning hand of king's party​

Feb 08, 2024

The result management system in Pakistan – which remains a festering source of most electoral controversies – seems to have a mind of its own, leaving most voters scratching their heads at the end of the polling day and election outcomes shrouded in mystery.

The “king’s party” ends up playing a winning hand, snagging more seats than its fair slice of the voting pie.

Regardless of candidates' meticulous calculations and prevailing conditions, the outcome of elections seems to defy both logic and proportional representation.

The number of votes for mainstream parties frequently fails to align harmoniously with the seats they secure.

Read detailed analysis here.

 

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Women turnout below 10% could result in re-election of that constituency, says ECP​

• Nearly 129 million registered voters in Pakistan are set to use their voting right

BR Web Desk
February 7, 2024

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is empowered to declare void a poll and order for re-election in a constituency where the overall turnout of women voters remains below 10% of the total votes cast, a ECP statement read on Wednesday.

Nearly 129 million registered voters in Pakistan are set to use their voting right as the fifth largest democracy in the world will choose its rulers for the next five years.

Out of the total registered voters, total male voters stand at 69,263,704, while 59,322,056 are female voters.

“If the total female voters’ count in a constituency remains below 10% of the total votes cast, the Election Commission of Pakistan, as per law, can void the voting in that constituency and order for re-polling,” the electoral watchdog said.

 

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[TheNewb77]

A lot of emotions running down during election day:

 

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ECP says 76 complaints received and resolved​

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) said it has resolved 76 poll-related complaints, which were received throughout the day.

According to the ECP spokesperson, most of the complaints were of a “normal nature” involving confrontations between political workers in different areas which were resolved on the spot.

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Amnesty International calls mobile, internet suspension ‘blunt attack’ on freedom of expression​

Amnesty International has called the suspension of mobile and internet services “a blunt attack on the rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly”.

“It is reckless to impede access to information as people head out to polling stations on the heels of devastating bomb blasts and what has been an intense crackdown on the opposition in the lead up to the elections in the country,” Amnesty International’s South Asia office said in a statement.

“Unwarranted restrictions on dissemination of information, despite reassurances to the contrary from the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority and Election Commission of Pakistan, are in breach of people’s human rights at this critical time in Pakistan.”

 

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WATCH: PTI laments alleged disruption in voting process in Punjab’s Khushab district​

PTI, in a post on their X account, has alleged that PML-N workers are bullying voters in Punjab’s Khushab district.

“PML-N bullying continues even in Khushab, the journey from ‘respect the vote’ to ‘stealing votes by harassing voters’ continues rapidly!” PTI said in a post on their X account.

 

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Top twelve races to keep an eye on​

Amidst the hundreds of contests today, there are some that will be more closely watched than others, for a variety of reasons.
Amir Wasim
February 8, 2024

Aftab Ahmed

 

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• Lahore set for showdown as Yasmin Rashid takes on three-time PM Nawaz
• JUI-F chief faces ex-NA speaker, PTI’s Gandapur in D.I. Khan
• No cakewalk for PTI leader Gohar Ali Khan in Buner
• Former ministers Nisar and Sarwar duke it out in Taxila
• 3-way contest between Fazl’s son, Salim Saifullah and fiery Marwat
• Stage set for clash of Qureshi-Gilani clans in Multan

WITH around 5,000 candidates contesting for 265 National Assembly seats today, things are expected to get quite chaotic when results start trickling in later today evening. With voters eager to find out if their favoured candidates are ahead and where their favourite party stands in the race to ‘win’ the general election, every single constituency will count.

Amidst the hundreds of contests today, there are some that will be more closely watched than others, for a variety of reasons. These could include areas which are battleground constituencies due to their swing potential, areas where two or more strong candidates are contesting, or areas which are likely to see heightened tensions due to the prominence or history of the people involved.

Given the contestants’ political mettle, these will not be easy fights for any of the candidates involved.

NA-10 Buner

Imran Khan’s successor, PTI leader Barrister Gohar Ali Khan is contesting against the former MNA from this constituency, Sher Akbar Khan, as well as Bakht Jahan Khan of the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), who is a former speaker of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly. Sher Akbar won the last election on a PTI ticket with 58,317 votes, but is now with the PTI-Parliamentarian, a breakaway faction of the PTI led by former defence minister and KP chief minister Pervez Khattak. Though there are eight candidates in total for NA-10, a triangular contest is expected between these three.

Sher Akbar previously won this seat in the 2013 elections on a JI ticket, as well as in the 2002 election on a PPP-Sherpao ticket. Barrister Gohar previously contested the election from this constituency on a PPP ticket in 2008 and was the runner-up that year, with over 18,000 votes. Both Sher Akbar and Barrister Gohar had lost to ANP’s Abdul Mateen Khan that year. Likewise, Bakht Jahan had contested a by-election on this seat as an independent in 2008 but had lost with a margin of just 787 votes. The turnout in this constituency has been on the rise, from 27.2 per cent in 2008 to 35pc in 2013 and 41pc in 2018.

NA-41 Lakki Marwat

There are 39 candidates vying for NA-41, of which 33 are independents. Here, too, a triangular contest is expected between Asjad Mehmood of the JUI-F, Sher Afzal Marwat of the PTI, and former senator Salim Saifullah Khan, an independent. The area is considered a stronghold of the JUI-F, which has retained the seat since 2002 in all general elections except 2008, when Humayun Saifullah of the PML-Q had emerged victorious against Pir Zakori Sharif of the MMA.

 

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NA-44 D.I. Khan-I

The JUI-F chief is facing his two archrivals — Ali Amin Gandapur of the PTI, and former NA deputy speaker Faisal Karim Kundi of the PPP — in this terror-hit constituency.

The Maulana had previously won this seat in 2002 and 2013 but lost to Kundi in 2008 and to Gandapur in 2018 in what were largely one-sided contests. In both those elections, the Maulana could not get more than 46,000 votes, whereas Kundi and Gandapur managed to bag more than 81,000 each.

In 2018, Kundi had come in third with only 20,681 votes. However, this time around, Kundi ran an extensive campaign in the absence of the Maulana and Gandapur, who was not allowed to campaign. Maulana Fazlur Rehman, however, ended his campaign with a public meeting at DI Khan on Tuesday, which may improve his chances.

The constituency comprises Paharpur, Dera Ismail Khan tehsils, the local cantonment, Shorkot, Chehkan and Katla Syedaan areas, and has 391,882 voters, including 183,401 women. The turnout in the constituency in 2013 and 2018 was 56pc and 55pc, respectively, but this time, political experts are expecting a low turnout in the wake of recent terror attacks in the area.

NA-54 Rawalpindi-III

This constituency in Taxila is expected to witness a neck-and-neck contest between former interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan and former aviation minister Ghulam Sarwar Khan. In 2018, Chaudhry Nisar, after parting ways with the PML-N, had contested the polls as an independent but lost to his traditional rival, PTI’s Ghulam Sarwar, by a margin of nearly 23,000 votes. Nisar is once again in the race as an independent, whereas Ghulam Sarwar is representing Jahangir Tareen’s Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP).

Though Ghulam Sarwar may face the wrath of the voters because of his constantly changing loyalties, Nisar, too, is facing a tough time as he has been politically inactive for the past many years. The ‘N’, which had previously repeatedly criticised Sarwar over a controversial statement he made about PIA pilots while he was aviation minister, is now supporting him in an apparent move to block Nisar’s re-entry to the parliament.

In the 2018 elections, Ghulam Sarwar secured over 100,000 votes against the 65,767 votes received by Nisar. Sarwar, who won the election from two constituencies, had opted to retain the other constituency and his son, Mansoor Hayat Khan, was subsequently elected on a PTI ticket with 71,782 votes. Nisar did not contest the by-polls. Nisar has previously won the seat on a PML-N ticket in the 2002, 2008 and 2013 elections. A new entrant, Azra Masood, is contesting as PTI’s nominee.

NA-71 Sialkot-II

Firebrand PML-N stalwart Khwaja Muhammad Asif has won all six previous general elections from here since 1993. However, the 2018 election was the toughest of his political life, when he only managed to defeat his arch-rival, Usman Dar of the PTI, by the closest of margins.

This time, the PML-N leader is facing Dar’s mother, Rehana Imtiaz Dar. She jumped into the political arena after her son’s decision to quit politics and denounce the May 9 incidents in a press conference. Rehana has been a prominent feature on mainstream and social media for the past many months because of her angry challenges to Kh Asif, who recently served her a legal notice for ‘damaging his repute’.

NA-122 Lahore-VI

There are 21 candidates, including 16 independents, in this Lahore constituency, but the main contest is expected to be between PML-N loyalist and former railways minister Khawaja Saad Rafique and PTI-backed lawyer and former Punjab governor Sardar Latif Khosa. The PPP has not fielded a candidate here. Khosa, who was once considered a close aide of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, joined the PTI only three months ago when the PPP suspended his membership for representing Imran Khan without seeking prior permission from the party’s leadership.

Saad Rafique had been an MNA since 2002 and had won all previous elections comfortably, except in 2018, when he lost to PTI founder Imran Khan by a tiny margin. When Mr Khan vacated this seat, Mr Rafique won it in a by-election after defeating Humayun Akhtar Khan. In 2008, Mr Rafique had bagged the seat in a one-sided contest against the PPP’s Naveed Chaudhry, whereas in 2013, he defeated the PTI’s Hamid Khan by securing more than 123,000 votes.

NA-130 Lahore-XIV

Desiring to become prime minister for a fourth time, the PML-N’s supreme leader, Nawaz Sharif, is contesting here against the PTI’s jailed woman leader and former Punjab health minister, Dr Yasmin Rashid. Observers believe that a heated electoral battle can be expected for this seat. Dr Rashid is facing a court trial in connection with the May 9 incidents and has been unable to run her election campaign. She has received widespread commendation, even from some of her rivals, for standing firm with the PTI despite a brutal crackdown against her party and colleagues.

In 2018, Dr Rashid lost the election to the PML-N’s Waheed Alam Khan despite managing to bag over 105,000 votes. She was later elected to the Punjab Assembly on a reserved seat for women. On the other hand, Mr Sharif, who could not take part in the 2018 elections due to his conviction in the Panama Papers case, is hoping for a political comeback after getting a clean chit from the courts.

NA-151 Multan-IV

Interesting contests between members of the powerful Qureshi and Gilani families are expected in the City of Saints.

In NA-151, Syed Ali Musa Gilani and Meher Bano Qureshi, the children of two prominent politicians and traditional rivals, are facing each other. Ali Musa is the son of former prime minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, whereas Meherbano is the daughter of PTI vice-chairman and former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. The senior Gilani is contesting from another constituency in Multan.

Meher Bano had submitted her papers as a covering candidate in anticipation of her father’s disqualification. Her apprehensions came true when the ECP disqualified Qureshi from contesting the polls after his conviction with Imran Khan in the cypher case.

The Qureshi family has been winning this seat for the past four decades despite its changing loyalties, which indicates that it has a solid vote bank and a large number of loyalists in the area. However, this time, the contest has become interesting because, in a by-election held in October last year, Ali Musa defeated Meher Bano with a margin of some 20,000 votes. This time, however, Meherbano is expecting a significant sympathy vote because of her father’s conviction.

NA-185 Dera Ghazi Khan-II

The electoral race in this tribal constituency features PTI-backed Zartaj Gul, the PPP’s Dost Muhammad Khosa, and PML-N-backed independent Mahmood Qadir Leghari. A former chief minister of Punjab, Dost Muhammad Khosa, is considered the favourite due to his status as a tribal chief. Zartaj Gul was earlier not available to campaign and started canvassing just this week. However, in 2018, Zartaj Gul defeated the PML-N’s Sardar Awais Leghari here with a margin of more than 25,000 votes. Dost Khosa had contested those polls as an independent and stood third, bagging 31,703 votes.