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Future of JF17 export market could still hold promise: The Rafale did not have its first export customer till 2015 and after that its been racking up orders across 6 countries. Up until then Typhoon had more export customers when it was competing for the India LCA.
Many of these exports involve more than the competitiveness and operations effectiveness of a weapons platform: offsets, loans, geopolitical influence. .
Egypt’s entire Rafale purchase was underwritten by a 10 year loans guaranteed by the French Govt. It’s part of its loan binge when it went from less than $40Bn in foreign debt in 2015 to $162BN last year, put it in same class (or worse) as Pakistan.
Those are enticements Pakistan cannot provide.
Pakistan is not trying to sell an advanced (and expensive) platform like the Rafale if I understand correctly.
For Pakistan, its JF-17 product has medium to advanced capabilities, and of course, is far more affordable than the Rafale to purchase and maintain. Its ideal customers are Asian/African/ME countries like Myanmar, Nigeria, Azerbaijan and Iraq (already operational in the air forces of these nations) and potentially plenty of other 2nd and Third world countries in Africa and South America. Being as affordable the JF-17 is, these countries probably will not need loans to purchase JF-17 in smaller numbers, at ~$40 Million a copy.
I believe Bangladesh was recently given a proposal for three squadrons of the JF-17 (along with assembly rights), which is proportional for its basic air force complement, to replace the currently fast-obsolescent Chinese F-7s in Bangladesh inventory. Being that most parts come from brotherly nations like Pakistan and China, there will be now issues in spare parts and maintenance upkeep.
Every Air Force needs a medium-capable non-training offensive platform in larger numbers unlike expensive frontline platforms, which themselves are needed in much smaller numbers.
The JF-17 would fulfill the medium operational role for Bangladesh and for which three to seven squadrons are ideal, placed around its borders in major airbases. In an assembly/co-production and risk-sharing assembly and production deal with Bangladesh, the future of JF-17 and variants thereof will be well-assured. Bangladesh certainly needs to step up its game as far as aircraft components production and has taken smaller steps in this regard. This will help Bangladesh' nascent aviation industry in no small measure.
For the frontline advanced MRCA role, a much more advanced platform is needed, for which Pakistan has F-16 and J-10CE platforms, and the latter would be ideal for Bangladesh as well - possibly two to three squadrons of them. At some point the Chinese J-31 (armed with PL-15e) could represent the very top of the echelon of offensive air assets for Pakistan and possibly, Bangladesh as well. The Jf-17 PFX could also be a contender.
I am not an air force professional myself, but would solicit your expertise and thoughts on this. @Saif bhai you can jump in to comment - as well.
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