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[🇧🇩] Trump's Victory/Tariff/ Bangladesh

[🇧🇩] Trump's Victory/Tariff/ Bangladesh
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FITCH FINDINGS ON TRUMP TARIFF DISPARITIES
BD set to bear highest duty among US trade partners

Existing 15, new 35 aggregate to 50pc

Jasim Uddin Haroon
Published :
Jul 19, 2025 09:00
Updated :
Jul 19, 2025 09:00

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Bangladesh could face the highest effective tariff rate (ETR) among US trading partners-approximately 50 per cent -under the Trump tariff regime effective August 01, Fitch Ratings shows such duty disparities, released on July 18.

The newly announced 35 per cent, outlined in formal letters from the US government, and the existing 15-percent duty on Bangladeshi exports to the American market aggregate to this steep figure.

Fitch's latest update to its U.S. Effective Tariff Rate (ETR) Monitor, an interactive tool tracking tariff developments, shows Bangladesh will bear the brunt of the new measures as it does not benefit from tariff exemptions or carve-outs offered to some other countries.

Meanwhile, as the countdown to the cutoff time for the unusual tariff hike progresses, Bangladesh is engrossed in finding response to US-set conditions deemed beyond trade and tariffs so Washington could rethink levying the ramped-up duty.

The global ratings agency has developed the interactive tariff tool to calculate the ETR on imports from US partners in trade and quantify current duties.

This calculation considers exclusion like "carveouts for oil and gas, copper, and pharmaceutical imports". This tool is updated whenever significant changes in US tariff policy occur.

In contrast, China's ETR remains unchanged at 41.4 per cent due to no revisions in its reciprocal tariff rate.

Meanwhile, the US ETR itself is set to rise to 19.4 per cent, up from 14.1 per cent, driven by increased reciprocal tariffs and the implementation of new duties on copper imports.

These changes align with the rates detailed in recent bilateral communications and announced trade arrangements.

Further upward pressure on the US ETR is anticipated if additional tariffs on semiconductors, electronic components, and pharmaceuticals-currently under section 232 investigation-take effect as expected on August 01. A scenario modeled by Fitch includes a 25-percent tariff on these imports, which would raise the overall ETR to approximately 23.7 per cent.

President Donald Trump has extended a pause on country-specific reciprocal tariffs announced in April but has sent letters to select countries outlining new rates ranging from 25 per cent to 50 per cent.

For the majority of countries not covered by these letters, the US will continue to impose a baseline tariff of 10 per cent.

However, Trump has indicated the possibility of introducing a blanket tariff of 10 per cent to 15 per cent on about 150 countries.

New bilateral trade deals with Vietnam and Indonesia were also announced, setting reciprocal tariffs at 20 per cent and 19 per cent respectively.

Among other notable changes, copper imports will now carry 50-percent duty, while Canada and Mexico face increased tariffs of 35 per cent and 30 per cent , raising their respective ETRs to 11.7 per cent and 13.1 per cent, up from 7.5 per cent and 9.5 per cent .

These projections assume that about half of previously tariff-free imports will be reclassified as compliant under the USMCA agreement.

In the case of the European Union, reciprocal tariffs are set to rise to 30 per cent from 20 per cent, resulting in varying ETRs for individual EU countries-ranging from 12 per cent to over 30 per cent-depending on their trade mix with the United States. ETR reflects the total duties paid as a percentage of total import value and varies based on changes in import composition and source countries.

Fitch's ETR Monitor provides sector-specific and country-specific breakdowns of import volumes and duties through 2025, covering key US trade partners, including China, the EU, Japan, Vietnam, Canada, and Mexico.

The interactive tool allows users to simulate different tariff scenarios by adjusting sectoral and country-specific rates and import volumes. It will be updated in real-time as major shifts in US trade policy unfold.​
 
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Bangladesh considers tariff cuts on US imports
Special Correspondent Dhaka
Published: 18 Jul 2025, 11: 28

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Bangladesh is planning to reduce tariff on imports from the United States significantly as part of efforts to boost bilateral trade. Currently, the country imposes an average 6 per cent tariff on US imports, but the government is now considering the possibility of removing this almost entirely, according to sources in the Ministry of Commerce.

The idea is weighed ahead of a third round of trade talks with the US on reciprocal tariff cuts. In preparation, various levels of coordination are underway, and a team of Bangladeshi business leaders may accompany the government delegation to Washington. The talks are expected late next week, with commerce adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin set to lead the team.

Commerce secretary Mahbubur Rahman confirmed to Prothom Alo on Thursday that the government is considering bigger tariff concessions on US goods.

In addition to expanding official imports of wheat, liquefied natural gas (LNG), aircraft parts, and edible oil from the US, steps have been taken to increase private-sector imports of US cotton.

He said the date for the third round of negotiations would be announced soon.

According to National Board of Revenue data, Bangladesh imported goods worth USD 2.5 billion from the US in the 2024–25 fiscal year, while exports to the US totalled USD 8.76 billion.

Ministry officials believe that even though Bangladesh may lose some revenue by cutting tariffs on US imports, the country stands to benefit if the US reciprocates with tariff reductions on Bangladeshi exports.

US President Donald Trump had announced retaliatory tariffs on 60 countries, including Bangladesh, on 2 April. In response, Bangladesh sent a letter to the US on 7 April requesting a suspension of the decision. On 9 April, the Trump administration temporarily suspended the decision for three months, keeping a minimum 10 per cent duty in place. However, on 8 July, the administration announced a new 35 per cent reciprocal tariff on Bangladesh, effective 1 August. With Bangladesh’s average current export duty to the US being 15 per cent, the total tariff will now jump to 50 per cent.

Trade experts and exporters say Bangladesh has not adequately prepared for the three-month negotiation window.

According to ministry sources, a separate delegation of business leaders may travel to the US to support the government’s position. They are expected to meet with top officials from major US retail brands importing Bangladeshi apparel and seek their support. The government also hopes to gain their strategic advice for the upcoming negotiations. A former diplomat currently based in the US has also been requested to assist with the talks.

Sources said the US signed a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) with Bangladesh on 12 June, preventing the inclusion of private representatives in the official delegation.

However, several exporters say they have yet to receive an official invitation from the government, and are unsure whether they will participate.

Meetings with US companies

The Commerce Ministry has been holding meetings with US companies and associations to assess the issues surrounding exports from the US to Bangladesh.

On Thursday, Commerce Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin held an online meeting with US Wheat Associates, which promotes US wheat exports globally. The government has already decided to import US wheat even at a premium of USD 20–30 per ton. Bangladesh has traditionally sourced wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

On Wednesday, the adviser also met online with Chevron, which has long operated in Bangladesh and recently received payment for all its dues. On the same day, the ministry also held talks with Excelerate Energy, with whom Bangladesh has an existing LNG import agreement.

Two more meetings are scheduled for Friday — one with the US Soybean Export Council (USSEC), which helps expand US soybean oil exports, and another with the US Cotton Association, which promotes US cotton sales globally.

Another key meeting is planned for 22 July with the American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA), a key stakeholder in the US retail import sector.​
 
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Adviser Rizwana urges calm over tariff concerns, says govt taking necessary steps

FE Online Report
Published :
Jul 20, 2025 17:26
Updated :
Jul 20, 2025 17:28

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Environment, Forest and Climate Change Adviser Syeda Rizwana Hassan has called for restraint over repeated concerns about potential tariff hikes, asking stakeholders not to create unnecessary panic.

Speaking as the chief guest at a seminar titled “Fostering Sustainable Investment” organised by the American Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh (AmCham) at Hotel Sheraton in Dhaka city on Sunday afternoon, she said, “There is no need to create anxiety by repeatedly stating that tariffs will increase from August. The government is taking the necessary steps.”

Recalling past crises in the apparel sector, she added, “After the Rana Plaza collapse, it was said that the RMG sector would be destroyed. Many feared it would collapse. But thanks to joint efforts by the government and businesses, the sector managed to recover. If we work together, we can overcome all obstacles.”

In his concluding remarks, AmCham President Syed Ershad Ahmed stated that retaliatory tariffs are not unique to Bangladesh and he emphasised the importance of dialogue.

“If we can engage in meaningful discussions, some positive outcomes can be achieved. This is not happening only to us—many other countries are facing similar situations. As our capabilities grow, our strength in negotiations will increase,” he said.

He also noted that Bangladesh has raised issues such as importing cotton from the US and the need for customs reform and they have also been acknowledged by the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA).

Business leaders and AmCham members also attended the event, where various aspects of sustainable investment in Bangladesh were discussed.​
 
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Bangladesh needs realistic and strategic preparation in US counter-tariff talks: SANEM

UNB
Published :
Jul 20, 2025 17:49
Updated :
Jul 20, 2025 17:49

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Bangladesh's export trade is poised to encounter new challenges in the wake of potential counter-tariffs from the United States, cautioned Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM) on Sunday.

Speaking at a roundtable discussion in the capital on Raihan stated, "Bangladesh's bargaining power is limited. Our preparedness and strategy in tariff-related discussions are weak, which could become economically costly in the future."

The roundtable, titled 'US Counter-Tariffs: Which Way for Bangladesh?', organised by Bangla Daily Prothom Alo, brought together economists, business leaders, and researchers from across the country.

Raihan highlighted that Bangladesh is currently navigating a geopolitical reality where maintaining balanced diplomatic and commercial relations with China, India, and the United States is crucial.

"Our competitors, like Malaysia, are engaging stakeholders in discussions on complex issues despite being in the NDA. In contrast, Bangladesh is still largely confined to a limited mindset," he added.

He further noted that the World Trade Organization (WTO) has become virtually ineffective. Many powerful countries, including the US, are now more focused on bilateral negotiations to serve their own interests. In this reality, adopting a strategic trade policy has become critically important for Bangladesh.

The economist warned that Bangladesh's export-dependent sectors to the US, especially garments, leather, and leather products, could be directly pushed out of competition if the new tariff rates come into effect.

"The proposed 35 per cent counter-tariff is alarming for us. Such tariff pressure will not only impact trade but also pose a significant threat to employment, foreign exchange earnings, and the survival of industries," he stated.

He stressed that it is time for realistic and strategic preparation. Moving beyond sole reliance on the WTO, Bangladesh must establish a strong position in bilateral discussions, incorporating product-specific and sector-specific plans.​
 
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We've never seen such a "faultless, innocent, blameless" government: Debapriya Bhattacharya
Staff Correspondent Dhaka
Updated: 20 Jul 2025, 20: 02

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Caption: Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow, CPD Prothom Alo

Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), has said, “Judging by the actions of the current interim government, it seems we are trying to move forward with an extremely faultless, innocent and blameless government.”

He made the remarks while criticising the government's role in tariff negotiations at a roundtable titled “U.S. Counter Tariffs: Which Way for Bangladesh” held today, Sunday. The event was organised by Prothom Alo at a hotel in the capital and attended by prominent economists, business leaders, and researchers.


Explaining why he described the government as faultless, innocent and blameless, Debapriya Bhattacharya said, “It amazes me that we sitting here seem to understand so much, yet those in government apparently don’t. That’s why I said, I’ve never seen such a faultless, innocent and blameless government. Right now, we’re stuck in a muddy situation with these tariff negotiations. Still, I cling hold on to hope that we can collectively overcome this shortfall.”

Debapriya said that historically, very few weak governments have succeeded in tough negotiations. Likewise, there are hardly any instances of disjointed governments being able to seize major opportunities. “This is such a disjointed government that it’s hard to even tell who is leading which area of work,” he said. “Besides, when a government like this one lacks political legitimacy, its vulnerability is exacerbated. Since the current government is weak, it should have involved experts and stakeholders in compensating for its weakness in the tariff negotiations. But that didn’t happen.”

Debapriya drew a contrast between the current government and previous administrations. “I’ve worked with several governments,” he said. “In the past, they may not have known certain things, but when we brought those matters to their attention, they would say, ‘Oh really? Okay, give us your recommendations and we’ll implement them.’ But the current government says, ‘We already know all this. Don’t worry about it.’”

He noted that the negotiations with the US involve not only tariffs but also several non-tariff issues. “This isn’t just about economics, there are layers of political economy and geopolitics involved,” he said. “So those who see it merely as a tariff issue are not seeing the full picture.”

Debapriya also said that in the negotiations with the US, the services sector has been completely overlooked. “From advisors to others involved in the talks, no one is mentioning the services sector,” he said. “Yet this sector is closely tied to our exports in garments, pharmaceuticals and more.”
Criticising the non-disclosure agreement (NDA) signed with the US as part of the tariff negotiations, he said, “Instead of signing an NDA, what we should have issued is a ‘norm paper’, a document outlining our policy position.”

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs won’t hold

Debapriya Bhattacharya noted that after Donald Trump’s tariff announcement last February, four types of responses were seen globally. First, some countries retaliated. China, the European Union (EU), Canada, and Mexico, which have strong bargaining power and large markets, attempted to impose counter-tariffs. Second, some countries, including Bangladesh, entered into negotiations while granting the US unilateral trade advantages. Third, some regions, mainly in Africa and to some extent ASEAN, tried to respond jointly. Fourth, a few countries, including China, lodged complaints with the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Debapriya Bhattacharya said that Donald Trump’s decision to impose counter-tariffs is based on flawed economic policy. “Sooner or later, they will be forced to backtrack,” he said. “When inflation starts rising in the US economy, growth slows down and employment drops, the signs will become evident. While the US economy hasn’t faced such shocks up to last month, they may emerge within the next six months. So, we must keep these possibilities in mind while negotiating.”

Debapriya added, “Let me say this emphatically: Trump’s reciprocal tariff move will not last because it’s unscientific. But before we reach that stage, we must prioritise employment and investment in the interim when making decisions.”

He emphasised that responding to the US counter tariffs requires major structural measures. “This can’t be resolved through tariffs alone,” he said. “We need to think more broadly and strategically about where Bangladesh is heading in the coming days.”​
 
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We have started frantically looking for lobbyists: BGMEA president
Staff Correspondent Dhaka
Published: 20 Jul 2025, 19: 26

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BGMEA president Mahmud Hasan Khan Prothom Alo

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) is trying to hire lobbyists to negotiate a reduction in the additional tariffs imposed on Bangladeshi products. BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan said, “Since yesterday, we have been actively trying to hire lobbyists. However, the response from them has been limited, as most are already affiliated with other countries.”

He made these remarks at a roundtable discussion on “US Counter Tariffs: What Path for Bangladesh” held today, Sunday. Prothom Alo organised the roundtable at the Sonargaon Hotel in the capital, where leading economists, business leaders and researchers of the country were present.

Mahmud Hasan Khan said, “Personally, I was still hopeful even three days ago. Those directly involved in the negotiations had informally said they were very confident. But for the past two days, there have been whispers that they’ve realised the United States Trade Representative (USTR) is not the final authority in reducing the counter-tariffs. That authority lies with the Trump administration. And it took them this long to figure that out!”

The BGMEA president added, “Had we known this a month earlier, we could have started the process of hiring lobbyists then. Since yesterday, we’ve been scrambling to engage lobbyists. But the response has been lukewarm, because most of them are already working on behalf of other countries. Some members of my organisation’s board of directors are now discouraging involvement in this process, fearing that the negotiations are likely to fail. And if it fails, why should we bear the burden of that failure?”

Backing his remarks with data, Mahmud Hasan Khan said that 1,322 BGMEA member factories export readymade garments to the United States. Among them, 100 factories send 91-100 per cent of their exports to the US. On the other hand, 822 factories export between 0 to 20 per cent of their output to that market. He further stated, “We operate with a margin of 1.2 per cent to 1.5 per cent. Even if the additional tariff is 20 per cent, we might still find some room to adjust -unless the counter-tariff imposed on India, Vietnam, and Indonesia is lower than ours.”

He continued, “Garment exports are our livelihood. Even though it’s late, we’re still trying to hire lobbyists. We’re in touch with the private-sector research institute PRI. We’ve already contacted two lobbyists, one of them has responded.” He added that unless the tug-of-war within the bureaucracy stops, the private sector won’t be able to move forward. “We need to negotiate the counter-tariffs smartly. Unfortunately, the government has never truly recognised the private sector.”​
 
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Never saw such crisis in 40 years: AK Azad
Staff Correspondent Dhaka
Published: 20 Jul 2025, 16: 17

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AK Azad, managing director of Ha-Meem Group Prothom Alo

AK Azad, one of the country’s leading exporters, a prominent business leader, and the Managing Director of Ha-Meem Group, said he has never seen such a crisis in the export sector in his 40 years of business experience.

He said, “We businesspeople have brought this sector to a respectable position, but now we are disappointed and frustrated.”

Sharing his experience from a recent meeting with a brand partner, AK Azad said, “A major brand called me to their head office and informed me that they tried to understand the position of the Bangladesh government through their own government. Their comment was: ‘Your position is weak; no good outcomes are expected.’” This made AK Azad frustrated.

In response to the situation, AK Azad called several advisers. He said, all of them took the issue seriously. The next day, the commerce adviser called him and said that apparently, Azad’s actions created a stir, and everyone was now calling the commerce adviser.

AK Azad further said that the adviser told him 95 per cent of the issues had already been resolved. The remaining 5 per cent were being worked on with various ministries. What that businesspeople would do by joining various discussions. He argued that even if the government loses revenue of Tk 20-30 billion, the country would benefit more if there is an additional export of USD 5 billion. He believes that this initiative will succeed.

Given the current context, AK Azad highlighted the buyers’ positions, saying, “One of my buyers emailed me saying that if the tariff imposed on Bangladesh starting from 1 August is not lifted, I will have to bear 35 per cent of the tariff myself. The question is—how am I supposed to bear that cost?”

AK Azad cited his experience from Indonesia. He said, “I have a joint venture in Indonesia. There, the government and businesses work together. They appointed lobbyists and engaged in discussions at every level. But in Bangladesh, we did not get such an opportunity.”

On the topic of the interim government’s tenure, AK Azad said, “You are saying that you are in charge for seven or eight months, and then you will leave. But where will we go then? To whom are you handing us over?”

AK Azad added, “Everyone thinks that there is someone above us who will blow a whistle and all problems will vanish. Because of this belief, we are not being evaluated at all; there is no thought of appointing any lobbyists either.”

Yesterday, Saturday, the government announced that the USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative) will not determine tariffs. That it will be decided by the Trump administration. Addressing the government, AK Azad said, “If you can, please try to act at that level.”

The government said that they have already started the process of appointing lobbyists and taking other necessary steps quickly. But AK Azad said, “At this point, we do not even know how far we can go or what can be achieved by appointing lobbyists. Bangladesh is going through such a difficult situation.”​
 
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MoU signed for US wheat import amid tariff threats
Staff Correspondent 21 July, 2025, 00:08

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Food adviser Ali Imam Majumder, among others, poses for a photo after the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the United States for importing wheat at the ministry in Dhaka on Sunday. | Focus Bangla photo

Bangladesh on Sunday signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States to import 7 lakh tonnes of wheat annually for the next five years amid the threat of facing 35 per cent US tariff on its exports from the next month.

The US is pressing Bangladesh to reduce the trade gap, which is in favour of Bangladesh, by importing more US products to get a favourable tariff deal. Dhaka is negotiating with Washington for reducing the tariff rate to a tolerable level to safeguard its exports to the US market. Bangladesh is waiting for the third round of tariff talks with the US as the previous two rounds failed to resolve key issues, including the tariff rate.


The MoU was signed by Md Abul Hasanat Humayun Kabir, director general of the Food Department, and Joseph K Sower, vice-president of the US Wheat Association, in the capital Dhaka on Sunday.

Food adviser Ali Imam Majumder told New Age that the MoU was not a binding agreement.New age services

‘Still, the MoU will provide an opportunity for building trust and a wider area of mutual trade cooperation between Bangladesh and the US amid negotiations over tariff issues between the two trading partners,’ he said.

On July 8, US president Donald Trump imposed 35 per cent tariff on Bangladeshi export products, effective from August 1, on top of sectoral tariffs of up to 15 per cent.

The country’s overall exports to the US were $8.4 billion in 2024, with the readymade garments accounting for $7.34 billion. In the year, the country imported US goods worth $2.2 billion.

The interim government is considering measures to increase imports from the US to reduce the trade gap, Ali Imam said.

He also said the price of wheat would be set later on the government-to-government negotiation.

Bangladesh imports wheat mainly from Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, but shipments from Ukraine have decreased since the war with Russia began in 2022.

Bangladesh Bank data showed that the country imported wheat worth about $635.8 million in FY24.

Food ministry officials said that the proposed amount of wheat was about 10 per cent of the country’s annual demand of 70 lakh tonnes with private sector importers such as City Group, Meghna Group, Bashundhara Group, Nabil Group, Sheikh Brothers, and Sainik Group leading the wheat import amid growing demand.

Aminul Islam, managing director of Nabil Group, said that the local private wheat importers were shy of the US wheat market because of high content of protein and relatively high price.

He calculated that fright charge would be additional maximum $3 to $4 per tonne for importing wheat by the government from the US than the other markets.

In the fortnight ending May 9, export prices of the US (Soft Red Winter), the US (Hard Red Winter), Russian, and Ukrainian wheat decreased by 2.9 per cent, 3.1 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 0.8 per cent to $213 a tonne, $240 a tonne, $246 a tonne, and $248 a tonne respectively.

The domestic wheat production has almost halved over the past two decades as farmers shifted to more profitable crops like maize, potatoes, vegetables and boro rice.

In the current financial year of 2025-26, the government has planned to import 15 lakh tonnes of rice and wheat from global markets at an estimated cost of Tk 7,800 crore. It had imported 10.05 lakh tonnes of rice and wheat worth Tk 5,800 crore in the past financial year.

Of the proposed import from the international sources, rice will account for 9 lakh tonnes and wheat 6 lakh tonnes.

In 2023, Bangladesh imported wheat worth $823 million. It imported wheat mainly from Canada ($428m), Ukraine ($171m), Romania ($105m), Brazil ($50.7m) and Australia ($45.1m), according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, an online data visualisation platform under the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Earlier on April 3, the US had imposed a steep 37 per cent ‘reciprocal’ tariff on Bangladeshi exports, but on April 9, the US president declared a pause on the tariff for three months.

After the pause announcement, Bangladesh had held the first round of negotiations with the US over the tariff rate.​
 
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