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[๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ] USA Election 2024
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Vance sells Trumpโ€™s message to disaffected America​


On the campaign trail, both men have sought to put the political skills that earned them the running-mate jobs to work.

Vance is polished and practised โ€“ a former Silicon Valley venture capitalist with an Ivy League pedigree that belies his rural Appalachian roots. Walz is a high-school teacher turned politician with a penchant for folksy Midwestern humour.

Vance has been a frequent advocate for the Trump campaign on mainstream media news programmes. Heโ€™s also rallied potential supporters in rural areas of the Midwestern battleground states, part of the Trump campaignโ€™s strategy of engaging sympathetic voters who may not have participated in previous elections.

Last week in Traverse City, Michigan, Vance gave his standard stump speech, which is focused on immigration, the economy and trade.

โ€œWeโ€™re going to pursue some commonsense tax and economic policies,โ€ he told the crowd of a few thousand cheering supporters gathered in a local fair ground. โ€œWe will do it with American workers rather than foreign slave labourers.โ€

While many of the rally attendees didnโ€™t know much about Vance prior to his selection as candidate for vice-president, they said they liked what they had heard so far - even as Vance has frequently flirted with controversy. His amplification of untrue rumours that Haitian migrants were stealing and eating pets in Ohio is a recent example.

 

Walz appeals to voters Harris struggles to reach​


The Democrat has been a regular fixture in more rural areas of the battleground states - often appearing in places that are traditionally more conservative. As a former high school football coach, heโ€™s sought to play up his background and links to Americaโ€™s most popular sport. On Saturday, he was at the Michigan-Minnesota college football game which was played in front of a crowd of 110,000.

When Harris introduced Walz as her vice-presidential pick at a Philadelphia rally in early August, she repeatedly referred to him as โ€œCoach Walzโ€ - and highlighted his high-school teacher background.

The Democrats may be hoping his plainspoken, salt-of-the-earth appeal could cut into the Republican margins outside major metropolitan areas.

โ€œIn Minnesota, we respect our neighbours and their personal choices that they make," Walz said in Philadelphia. โ€œEven if we wouldnโ€™t make the same choice for ourselves, thereโ€™s a golden rule: Mind your own damn business.โ€
 

CNN Instant Poll: No clear winner in VP debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance​


By Ariel Edwards-Levy and Jennifer Agiesta, CNN
October 2, 2024

Registered voters who watched Tuesdayโ€™s debate between vice presidential nominees Tim Walz and JD Vance were closely divided over which candidate did the better job, according to a CNN instant poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS, and the event left viewers with more positive views of both candidates than they held pre-debate.

Among debate watchers, Walz remains the candidate whoโ€™s seen more positively and as more in touch with their needs and vision for the country. Vance, who suffers from more of an image deficit among both viewers and the public at large, boosted his standing among the debate audience, outperforming expectations and gaining ground on the share who perceive him as qualified. He was also narrowly seen as doing a better job than Walz of defending his running mate. Both men, the poll finds, are viewed by a majority of debate watchers as qualified to assume the presidency if needed. And practically none of the voters who tuned in saw the debate as a reason to change their votes.

Following the debate, 51% of viewers said that Vance did the better job, with 49% picking Walz. In a survey conducted of the same voters prior to the debate, Walz held the advantage as the candidate they expected to perform more strongly, 54% to 45%.
 

Middle East conflict has added to "heightened threat environment" in US ahead of election, DHS official says​

From CNN's Holmes Lybrand

The threat environment in the United States โ€œremains highโ€ ahead of the November presidential election and conflict in the Middle East, according to a new assessment by the Department of Homeland Security.

The annual assessment released Wednesday warns of possible threats from violent extremists driven by the heated political environment in the US as well as foreign and domestic threats from terrorist groups and others inspired by conflicts abroad. It also comes amid a wider conflict in the Middle East after Israel assassinated Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and began a ground offensive in Lebanon. Iran retaliated on Tuesday by launching nearly 200 missiles at Israel.

A senior DHS official told reporters Wednesday that the department is still working to figure out what Iranโ€™s escalatory attack on Israel in recent days could mean for US security.

โ€œItโ€™s of course true that events in the Middle East over the last 12 months have contributed to this heightened threat environment and continue to do so, and weโ€™re in a constant effort to evaluate and monitor whatโ€™s happening abroad to determine what implications it has for here in the homeland,โ€ the official said.

The official also noted that the attack from Iran, paired with the one-year anniversary of Hamasโ€™ October 7 attack on Israel last year, could โ€œdrive particular violent extremists here in the homeland to accelerate or look to take action on a timeline that may not have been anticipated.โ€

โ€œWe are literally in the earliest days of trying to understand what exactly Iranian intentions might be,โ€ the official said.

Some of those intentions of Iran and other countries, according to officials and the report itself, are to sow confusion and chaos in the US 2024 presidential election.
 
The sentiment behind the words Americans used to describe what theyโ€™d heard about Harris remained more positive than the words they used to describe the news about Trump. This doesnโ€™t mean that they expressed warmer feelings about her personally but that what they said about her tended to be framed in relatively positive terms and tone.

However, the gap in sentiments about the two candidates was significantly smaller than it was last week in the wake of the debate. The tone of responses relating to Harris were slightly more negative than positive, bringing her sentiment number roughly in line with where it was prior to the debate, while Trumpโ€™s remained in negative territory.
 

October surprises are piling up, but a toss-up race seems impervious to shocks​


Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN
October 3, 2024


October surprises are coming at a dizzying pace. But the question is whether grave crises at home and abroad can break a dead heat between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in an election thatโ€™s already been marked by huge turmoil.

The White House is grappling with three challenges that could threaten the vice presidentโ€™s hopes and offer an opening to the Republican nomineeโ€™s narrative of Biden-era negligence. A month before Election Day, the US faces the grave possibility of being dragged into a Middle East conflagration; a port workersโ€™ strike could harm inflation-weary consumers; and political pressure is rising in the fallout of Hurricane Helene.

Trump, meanwhile, was hit on Wednesday by the unsealing of a 165-page document in which special counsel Jack Smith gives the fullest picture of his case in the federal 2020 election interference case. The ex-president has pleaded not guilty, but the filing re-injected his attempt to steal the last election into the frantic endgame of a campaign partially shaped by Democratsโ€™ claims he poses an existential threat to American democracy.

Each situation highlights potential vulnerabilities for both candidates as voters make up their minds. The trio of tests facing Harris comes with potential economic, political and humanitarian consequences if the administration errs. And the new scrutiny of Trumpโ€™s behavior after the 2020 election could cause some voters to again question his fitness for the Oval Office.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at Dane Manufacturing in Waunakee, Wisconsin, October 1, 2024.


Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at Dane Manufacturing in Waunakee, Wisconsin, October 1, 2024.
Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP/Getty Images
 

Trumpโ€™s election meddling thrust back into 2024 race​

One of the most bewildering aspects of the 2024 election is that a former president accused of trying to overthrow the previous election has an even chance of winning this one.

The depth of Trumpโ€™s alleged election stealing plot was laid bare in Smithโ€™s filing, which said that he โ€œextensively used private actors and his campaign infrastructure to attempt to overturn the election results.โ€ Smith, trying to get around this summerโ€™s Supreme Court ruling that granted presidents substantial immunity for official acts, added that Trump โ€œoperated in a private capacity as a candidate for office.โ€

In one of the most damning parts of the filing, Smith said he had evidence that showed the then-president told family members, โ€œIt doesnโ€™t matter if you won or lost the election. You still have to fight like hell.โ€

Trump has falsely claimed that all his legal exposure proves that the Biden administration has weaponized justice against him to meddle in this election. Campaign spokesman Steven Cheung claimed that โ€œPresident Trump is dominating, and the Radical Democrats throughout the Deep State are freaking out.โ€

Trump has also forced fellow Republicans to adopt his false claims of fraud in 2020. In the vice presidential debate on Tuesday, his running mate JD Vance couldnโ€™t bring himself to publicly say his boss lost the last election.

While Republican voters seem willing to buy into Trumpโ€™s false narrative, it remains unclear how deeply events four years ago still weigh on the minds of swing-state voters and how much, if at all, Smithโ€™s unsealed document will shape the race.

Vice President Kamala Harris walks with Augusta Mayor Garnett Johnson as they survey the damage from Hurricane Helene, in the Meadowbrook neighborhood of Augusta, Georgia, on October 2, 2024.

Vice President Kamala Harris walks with Augusta Mayor Garnett Johnson as they survey the damage from Hurricane Helene, in the Meadowbrook neighborhood of Augusta, Georgia, on October 2, 2024.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Events threaten to conspire against Harris​

The greatest vulnerability for Harris may lie in a sense the post-pandemic normality that Joe Biden pledged to restore in 2020 is still unrealized, while Republicans make a case that Democratic leadership is outmatched by cascading events at home and abroad.

A long-dreaded war between Iran and Israel could force the United States into fighting with Tehran after more than four decades of proxy antagonism and put Americans in harmโ€™s way. Any consequent energy crisis could send gas prices soaring and shatter Harrisโ€™ economic credentials. The port stoppage is pulling the administration between its support for unionized labor and an imperative to prevent supermarket shortages and hiked prices. Meanwhile, Helene is the second deadliest hurricane to strike the US mainland in the past 50 years, following Katrina in 2005, which became a symbol of how mismanaged natural disasters can create political cataclysms.

โ€œLook at the World today โ€” Look at the missiles flying right now in the Middle East, look at whatโ€™s happening with Russia/Ukraine, look at Inflation destroying the World. NONE OF THIS HAPPENED WHILE I WAS PRESIDENT!โ€ Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday. His argument ignores the daily chaos that raged when he was in office. But unlike in 2020, amid his botched handling of the Covid-19 crisis, Trump is not an incumbent and his post could be a crisp election argument against the current administration. Proliferating crises also allow Trump to revive one of the key themes of his campaign โ€“ that he offers strength and Harris and Biden are weak.

Each of the problems looming over the White House race might qualify for the cliche October surprise. Yet their impact is hard to assess since this campaignโ€™s many twists have yet to have a decisive impact. Trump has, for example, been convicted of a crime and escaped two assassination attempts. An incumbent president running for reelection abandoned his campaign a few months before Election Day.

Still, after the vice presidential debate on Tuesday night, there are now no scheduled set-piece occasions that offer the prospect of a major twist in the campaign. That means effectively navigating the crises that do arise could become even more vital.

Any development could in theory take on outsize significance among the perhaps several hundred thousand voters in a handful of swing states that will decide this election. Harris has a narrow lead in some national polls, but most swing state surveys show no clear leader and margins within sampling errors.
 

US election 2024: A really simple guide to the presidential vote​


BBC White House stylised with stars and stripes
BBC

Americans will head to the polls in November to elect the next US president. The vote will be closely watched around the world.

They will also be voting for members of Congress, who play a key part in passing laws that can have a profound effect on American life.
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When is the US presidential election?​

The 2024 election is on Tuesday, 5 November 2024. The winner will serve a term of four years in the White House, starting in January 2025.

The president has the power to pass some laws on their own but mostly he or she must work with Congress to pass legislation.

On the world stage, the US leader has considerable freedom to represent the country abroad and to conduct foreign policy.

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Who are the candidates and how are they nominated?​


The two main parties nominate a presidential candidate by holding a series of votes called state primaries and caucuses, where people choose who they want to lead the party in a general election.

In the Republican Party, former president Donald Trump won his party's support with a massive lead over his rivals. He became the official Republican nominee at a party convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump chose Ohio senator JD Vance to be his vice-presidential running mate.

For the Democrats, Vice-President Kamala Harris joined the race after President Joe Biden dropped out and no other Democrats stood against her. Her running mate is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

There are also some independent candidates running for president.

One of the most prominent was Robert F Kennedy Jr, nephew to former president John F Kennedy, but he suspended his campaign in late August and has endorsed Trump.

What do Democrats and Republicans stand for?​


The Democrats are the liberal political party, with an agenda defined largely by its push for civil rights, a broad social safety net and measures to address climate change.

The Republicans are the conservative political party in the US. Also known as the GOP, or the Grand Old Party, it has stood for lower taxes, shrinking the size of the government, gun rights and tighter restrictions on immigration and abortion.
 

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