Israel don’t got da balls to take on Iran. They’ll need the US to do it for them and the US knows it’ll get in trouble if it even attempts doing anything of the sort.
More than 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded in Russia’s war with Ukraine, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said yesterday.
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North Korea suffers 1,100 casualties
Says South Korea
More than 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded in Russia's war with Ukraine, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said yesterday.
The new figure follows a report by Seoul's spy agency to MPs last week, which said at least 100 North Korean soldiers had been killed since entering combat in December.
Pyongyang has sent thousands of troops to reinforce the Russian military, including to the Kursk border region where Ukrainian forces seized territory earlier this year.
"Through various sources of information and intelligence, we assess that North Korean troops who have recently engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces have suffered around 1,100 casualties," the JCS said in a statement.
They can't touch Iraand bhai......So far Iraannd hasn't lost a penny worth quibbling about.
Araam say Iran tamasha dekh ra hae......This pullout of Syria was a calculated decision.
If the allies are unreliable/ untrustworthy, then you let em go bhai.
Last generation or so Iran's invested in Hezb.....so it's performing as are the Ansarallah allies. Syria couldn't cuz theys wuz only 10% or even less of the population and its just too hard.
Iran is confident it can resupply Hezb and Ansarallah.
And don't forget, Iran is still in Iraq.....very well entrenched.
Irans been playing this game since Achaemenid times.......It's the oldest player out there in recorded history.
They can't touch Iraand bhai......So far Iraannd hasn't lost a penny worth quibbling about.
Araam say Iran tamasha dekh ra hae......This pullout of Syria was a calculated decision.
If the allies are unreliable/ untrustworthy, then you let em go bhai.
Last generation or so Iran's invested in Hezb.....so it's performing as are the Ansarallah allies. Syria couldn't cuz theys wuz only 10% or so of the population and its just too hard.
Iran is confident it can resupply Hezb and Ansarallah.
And don't forget, Iran is still in Iraq.....very well entrenched.
Irans been playing this game since Achaemenid times.......It's the oldest player out there in recorded history.
Syria will now become yet another festering ground for all sorts of nasty jihadist groups, watch.
This was always going to be the case after Russian priorities shifted back home. Russian air power had swung it nicely in Asad's favor in the early days of their intervention.. Iran wasn't strong enough to keep the advantage, not with the west and Ijrael funding the opposition "rebels"
Sad scene, big loss for Iran, houthis also being bombed, hezbollah all bur dismantled, cracks in the crescent.
It is all going very poorly for Iraand, dunno how you staying so pojitive about the situation.
Russia's Federal Security Service said on Thursday it had foiled several plots by Ukrainian intelligence services to kill high-ranking Russian officers and their families in Moscow using bombs disguised as power banks or document folders. On Dec. 17, Ukraine's SBU intelligence service kill
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Russia says it foils Ukrainian plots to kill senior officers with disguised bombs
REUTERS
Published :
Dec 26, 2024 21:00
Updated :
Dec 26, 2024 21:00
The Russian flag flies on the dome of the Kremlin Senate building behind Spasskaya Tower, while the roof shows what appears to be marks from the recent drone incident, in central Moscow, Russia, May 4, 2023. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
Russia's Federal Security Service said on Thursday it had foiled several plots by Ukrainian intelligence services to kill high-ranking Russian officers and their families in Moscow using bombs disguised as power banks or document folders.
On Dec. 17, Ukraine's SBU intelligence service killed Lieutenant General Kirillov, chief of Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops, in Moscow outside his apartment building by detonating a bomb attached to an electric scooter.
An SBU source confirmed to Reuters that the Ukrainian intelligence agency had been behind the hit. Russia said the killing was a terrorist attack by Ukraine, with which it has been at war since February 2022, and vowed revenge.
"The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation has prevented a series of assassination attempts on high-ranking military personnel of the Defence Ministry," the FSB said.
"Four Russian citizens involved in the preparation of these attacks have been detained," it said in a statement.
Ukraine's SBU did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
The FSB, the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB, said that the Russian citizens had been recruited by the Ukrainian intelligence services.
One of the men retrieved a bomb disguised as a portable charger in Moscow that was to be attached with magnets to the car of one of the Defence Ministry's top officials, the FSB said.
Another Russian man was tasked with reconnaissance of senior Russian defence officials, it said, with one plot involving the delivery of a bomb disguised as a document folder.
"An explosive device disguised as a portable charger (power bank), with magnets attached, had to be placed under the official car of one of the senior leaders of the Russian Defence Ministry," it said.
The exact date of the planned attacks was unclear though one of the suspects said he had retrieved a bomb on Dec. 23, according to the FSB.
Russian state TV showed what it said was footage of some of the suspects who admitted to being recruited by Ukrainian intelligence for bombings against Russian defence ministry officials.
Moscow holds Ukraine responsible for a string of high-profile assassinations on its soil designed to weaken morale - and says the West is supporting a "terrorist regime" in Kyiv.
Ukraine, which says Russia's war against it poses an existential threat to the Ukrainian state, has made clear it regards such targeted killings as a legitimate tool.
Darya Dugina, the 29-year-old daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, was killed in August 2022 near Moscow.
The New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence agencies, believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorised the killing.
U.S. officials later admonished Ukrainian officials over the assassination, the Times said. Ukraine denied it killed Dugina.
Russia is against the deployment of Western peacekeeping troops to Ukraine as part of any settlement to end the nearly three-year conflict, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said.
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Russia opposes Western peacekeepers in Ukraine
Agence France-Presse . Moscow 31 December, 2024, 00:55
Russia is against the deployment of Western peacekeeping troops to Ukraine as part of any settlement to end the nearly three-year conflict, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said.
Talk of the possible stationing of foreign troops in Ukraine to enforce any peace deal is circulating in Western capitals, with French president Emmanuel Macron and Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk discussing the issue in a meeting in Warsaw this month.
In an interview published Monday by the Russian foreign ministry, Lavrov told the state-run TASS news agency that Moscow opposed that idea as well as others being proposed by US president-elect Donald Trump.
‘Of course, we are not satisfied with the proposals being voiced by representatives of the president-elect to postpone Ukrainian NATO membership for 20 years and to send to Ukraine a peacekeeping contingent of ‘British and European forces,’’ Lavrov said.
The Kremlin had previously said it was ‘too early to talk about peacekeepers’.
Trump, who comes to power in three weeks, has claimed he can strike a peace deal in 24 hours and said he will use Washington’s multibillion-dollar financial and military support to Kyiv as leverage.
He has yet to propose a concrete plan but members of his team have floated various ideas, including the deployment of European troops to monitor any ceasefire along the 1,000-kilometre front line and a lengthy delay on Kyiv’s ambitions to join the NATO military alliance.
Both the Russian and Ukrainian presidents have ruled out direct talks with each other, and positions in Kyiv and Moscow appear far apart on what would be acceptable terms for a peace deal.
Russian president Vladimir Putin previously demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from four eastern and southern regions — Donetsk, Kherson, Lugansk and Zaporizhzhia — that Russia claims to have annexed, while Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out ceding territory to Moscow in exchange for peace.
Meanwhile, the United States announced a $2.5 billion security assistance package for Ukraine on Monday as Washington races to provide aid to Kyiv before Trump takes office.
Trump’s November election victory has cast doubt on the future of American aid for Ukraine, providing a limited window for billions of dollars in already authorized assistance to be disbursed before he is sworn in next month.
Monday’s aid includes a $1.25 billion military ‘drawdown package’, which allows the Pentagon to take weapons from US stocks and send them quickly to the battlefield.
Another $1.22 billion will be funded via the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, under which military equipment is procured from the defence industry or partners.
‘Today, I am proud to announce nearly $2.5 billion in security assistance for Ukraine, as the Ukrainian people continue to defend their independence and freedom from Russian aggression,’ president Joe Biden said in a statement.
The drawdowns from the defence department shelves will involve drones, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, optically guided missiles, anti-tank weapons systems, air-to-ground munitions and spare parts, according to a separate statement from the US State Department.
‘The United States and more than 50 nations stand united to ensure Ukraine has the capabilities it needs to defend itself against Russia’s aggression,’ secretary of state Antony Blinken said.
The latest assistance for Ukraine follows an announcement at the beginning of the month of a nearly $1 billion tranche of drones, ammunition and equipment.
Russian forces advanced by 3,985 square kilometres in Ukraine in 2024, seven times more than in 2023, according to an AFP analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War.
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Russia advanced 4,000 sq km in Ukraine in 2024
Agence France-Presse . Paris 01 January, 2025, 01:00
Russian forces advanced by 3,985 square kilometres in Ukraine in 2024, seven times more than in 2023, according to an AFP analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War.
Much of the Russian gains came in the autumn, as they took 610 square kilometres in October and 725 square kilometres in November. Those two months saw the Russians conquer the most territory since March 2022, in the early weeks of the conflict.
The Russian advance slowed in December, coming to 465 square kilometres in the first 30 days of the month.
However it is already nearly four times bigger than in the same month of the previous year and two and a half times more than in December 2022.
Nearly three quarters of the territory taken by the Russians in Ukraine in 2024 was in the eastern region of Donetsk, which includes Pokrovsk, an Ukrainian logistical hub.
Russia now controls or is operating in 70 per cent of the region, against 59 per cent at the end of 2023.
The Russian advance accelerated in August 2024, with nearly 400 square kilometres taken over the month, reaching a gain of 629 square kilometres in November.
2024 was also marked by a major Ukrainian offensive in the Russian region of Kursk which started in July.
Ukrainian advances peaked on August 20-21, extending over some 1,320 square kilometres. The area of operations had been reduced to 482 square kilometres by December 30.
This photograph taken on 10 November, 2024 shows the interior of a room in a damaged house following a drone attack in Odesa, amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Russia fired 145 drones at Ukraine overnight, the most in any single night-time attack of the war so far, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on 10 November, 2024.AFP
A Ukrainian drone attack in western Russia caused a fuel spill and fire at an oil depot, a Russian regional governor said Tuesday.
Vasily Anokhin, the governor of Smolensk region—which borders Ukraine—said that Russian air defence systems had “suppressed an attack by Ukrainian” drones in Yartsevo district.
“The wreckage of one of the unmanned aerial vehicles fell on the territory of an oil depot. As a result, a fuel spill occurred and a fire started in the fuel and lubricants,” Anokhin wrote on social media early Tuesday.
He added that rescue services were still at work, and that there was “no threat” to residential buildings around the area.
Russia’s defence ministry reported Tuesday that 68 Ukrainian UAVs were downed overnight, with 10 destroyed over Smolensk region.
Kyiv has struck several Russian energy facilities throughout the nearly three-year conflict, claiming the hits were fair retaliation for Moscow’s large-scale attacks on its own electricity grid.
Russia’s border regions are frequently targeted by Ukrainian aerial attacks, and both sides have escalated their bombardments over the last few months.
Tuesday’s drone attack came a day after Russia and Ukraine swapped more than 300 prisoners of war in an operation brokered by the United Arab Emirates ahead of New Year’s Eve.
The two sides have exchanged hundreds of captive soldiers since Russia began its military assault on Ukraine in February 2022 -- one of the few areas of cooperation.
Russia launched an aerial attack on the centre of Kyiv in the first hours of 2025, killing one person, Ukrainian authorities said on Wednesday...
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Russian attack on central Kyiv kills one
Agence France-Presse . Kyiv, Ukraine 02 January, 2025, 00:47
Russia launched an aerial attack on the centre of Kyiv in the first hours of 2025, killing one person, Ukrainian authorities said on Wednesday.
The attack — a rare strike on the heart of the Ukrainian capital — came just hours after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky vowed in a New Year’s message that he would do everything possible to bring the war to an end over the next 12 months.
‘One person has been killed as a result of an enemy attack on Kyiv. The number of wounded has increased to 7, including two pregnant women,’ the Prosecutor General’s office said in a post on Telegram.
Local officials said the damage was caused by falling debris, suggesting the drones had been intercepted.
AFP journalists in the city heard multiple powerful explosions early on Wednesday morning.
Ukrainian officials said Russian drones targeted the capital’s Pechersky district, home to the presidential palace and government quarter.
Apartment blocks were hit and Ukraine’s central bank said one of its buildings was damaged in the attack.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened to strike at the heart of Kyiv in recent weeks — an attack he said would be a response to Ukraine firing US-supplied weapons on Russian territory.
Zelensky blasted the Russian drone attack.
‘Even on New Year’s night, Russia only cares about hurting Ukraine,’ he said in a post on Telegram.
A total of 111 Russian drones were fired at Ukraine overnight, with 109 either shot down or disabled by Ukraine’s air defence systems, the Ukrainian air force said.
Both sides have ramped up their aerial attacks over the last two months, seeking to gain an upper hand in the conflict ahead of US president-elect Donald Trump coming to power later in January.
The incoming Republican has claimed he can strike a peace deal within a matter of hours, stoking fears in Kyiv that it could be forced to accept terms favourable to Moscow.
Meanwhile, Zelensky on Tuesday said that Ukraine would need to fight next year to bolster its position both militarily and ahead of any talks to end Russia’s three-year-long invasion.
The Ukrainian leader’s address caps a difficult year for the war-battered country that has been fending off a better-resourced Russian army for nearly three years.
The country lost seven times more territory to Russia this year than in 2023, according to an AFP analysis, and is facing the possibility of a reduction in US military and political backing when Donald Trump takes over the White House.
‘And every day in the coming year, I, and all of us, must fight for a Ukraine that is strong enough. Because only such a Ukraine is respected and heard. Both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table,’ Zelensky said in an address to the nation.
Russia vowed on Saturday to retaliate after it accused Ukraine of firing US-supplied ATACMS missiles at the border region of Belgorod the previous day.
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Russia vows action over ATACMS strike on Belgorod
Agence France-Presse . Moscow, Russia 04 January, 2025, 22:23
Russia vowed on Saturday to retaliate after it accused Ukraine of firing US-supplied ATACMS missiles at the border region of Belgorod the previous day.
Outgoing US president Joe Biden authorised Kyiv to use the long-range weapons against Russia last year, in a move the Kremlin denounced as a grave escalation of the nearly three-year conflict.
‘On January 3, an attempt was made from Ukrainian territory to launch a missile strike against the Belgorod region using US-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles,’ the Russian defence ministry said.
‘These actions by the Kyiv regime, which is supported by Western curators, will be met with retaliation,’ it added, saying all the missiles were shot down.
The ministry said earlier that air defences downed eight ATACMS missiles in total, without saying when or where.
Russian president Vladimir Putin threatened last year to strike central Kyiv with a hypersonic ballistic missile if Ukraine continued hitting Russian territory with long-range Western weapons.
US president-elect Donald Trump said in an interview last month he was ‘very vehemently’ opposed to Ukraine using the arms, which he said were ‘escalating’ the conflict.
Both Kyiv and Moscow have accused each other of fatal attacks on civilians since the year began.
A Russian strike on a village in Ukraine’s northeast Kharkiv region earlier on Saturday killed a 74-year-old man, regional governor Oleg Synegubov said.
Russia’s defence ministry said on Saturday it had captured the Ukrainian village of Nadiia, one of the few settlements in the eastern Lugansk region still under Kyiv’s control.
Moscow advanced by almost 4,000 square kilometres in Ukraine in 2024, according to an AFP analysis, as Kyiv’s army struggled with chronic manpower shortages and exhaustion.
Russia said Sunday that Ukraine had launched a ‘counterattack’ in the western border region of Kursk, where Kyiv’s forces began a shock ground offensive last August.
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Ukraine launches counterattack in Kursk region: Russia
Agence France-Presse . Moscow, Russia 06 January, 2025, 01:09
Russia said Sunday that Ukraine had launched a ‘counterattack’ in the western border region of Kursk, where Kyiv’s forces began a shock ground offensive last August.
It was not immediately clear how much Ukraine had advanced in the region, but pro-Kremlin military bloggers reported earlier that a powerful new offensive was underway.
‘At about 9:00am Moscow time (0600 GMT), in order to halt the advance of Russian troops in the Kursk direction, the enemy launched a counterattack,’ the Russian defence ministry said.
Ukraine used two tanks, a dozen armoured vehicles and a demolition unit in the new assault, which was headed towards the village of Berdin — about 15 kilometres northeast of Sudzha, the ministry said.
‘The operation to destroy the Ukrainian army formations continues.’
Sudzha was captured by Kyiv’s forces shortly after they launched their offensive in August 2024, and they have held on to it since.
Ukrainian officials offered limited information about the offensive.
‘Russia is getting what it deserves,’ Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said.
The head of Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, said on Telegram that ‘defence forces are working’ in the area.
‘In the Kursk region, the Russians are very worried because they were attacked from several directions, and it was a surprise for them,’ he said.
Pro-Kremlin military bloggers admitted the Russian army was under pressure in the Kursk region.
‘The main events of the next attempted offensive by the Ukrainian army are clearly still ahead of us,’ influential pro-Russian blogger Rybar said.
Kyiv seized dozens of villages in the Kursk region shortly after its incursion started on August 6, 2024, but its advances stalled after Moscow rushed reinforcements to the area, including thousands of troops from its ally Pyongyang.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday evening that ‘up to a battalion of North Korean infantry soldiers and Russian airborne troops’ had been lost in battles in the Kursk region on that day and the day before.
Kyiv’s apparent new offensive comes at a critical moment in the nearly three-year conflict, with US president-elect Donald Trump — who has promised a quick ceasefire — gearing up to take office on January 20.
Incumbent president Joe Biden’s administration has unveiled almost $6 billion in military and budget aid for Ukraine ahead of the Republican’s inauguration.
Both Russia and Ukraine have exchanged regular attacks since the year began.
Russia said Sunday it downed dozens of Ukrainian drones overnight in a barrage that damaged homes and triggered air alerts, while Kyiv said Moscow fired 103 drones into its territory.
Four Russian airports briefly suspended traffic early Sunday for ‘safety’ reasons, forcing at least eight planes to divert course, a spokesperson for Russia’s civil aviation authority Rosaviatsia said.
Russia said yesterday its forces had made important gains in eastern Ukraine while continuing to fend off a new Ukrainian offensive inside the Kursk region of western Russia, where a second day of fierce fighting was under way.
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Fighting rages inside Russia’s Kursk region
Moscow reports gains in Ukraine; Kyiv denies fall of Kurakhove
Russia said yesterday its forces had made important gains in eastern Ukraine while continuing to fend off a new Ukrainian offensive inside the Kursk region of western Russia, where a second day of fierce fighting was under way.
The Russian defence ministry said its forces had captured the town of Kurakhove, 32 km (20 miles) south of Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian logistics hub towards which Russian forces have been advancing for months.
The ministry said taking Kurakhove, which had held out for many weeks, would enable Moscow's forces to step up the pace of their advance in Ukraine's Donetsk region. It also said it had captured Dachenske, a settlement within five miles of Pokrovsk.
Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState, which tracks the front line using open sources, showed most of Kurakhove under Russian control. Ukraine's Khortytsia group of forces said Russian forces continued to attack Kurakhove but Ukrainian forces were working to identify and repel Russian assault groups on that part of the front.
Both sides are fighting to improve their battlefield positions before US President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to bring a quick end to the nearly three-year-old war, takes office on January 20.
Ukraine's main achievement in the past five months of fighting has been to capture and hold on to a slice of territory inside Russia's Kursk region that could provide it with an important bargaining chip in possible peace talks.
Ukraine has not revealed details of the new offensive it launched in Kursk on Sunday, though a senior Ukrainian official has said Russia is "getting what it deserves".
Russian accounts said Moscow's forces had beaten back the initial Ukrainian assaults but further waves were expected.
"Of course, this is not the end. Now we are recording a concentration of enemy equipment in another direction and naturally we understand that he (Ukraine) will try to strike in this direction. Right now I won't say where," said Major General Apti Alaudinov, commander of a Chechen unit fighting for Russia in Kursk.
Ukrainian and Western assessments suggest about 11,000 troops from Russian ally North Korea have been deployed in the Kursk region to support Moscow's forces. Russia has neither confirmed nor denied their presence.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday more than 1,000 North Korean troops had been killed or wounded. Reacting to the new Ukrainian offensive, the United States, Britain and the European Union have reaffirmed their support for Kyiv.
Several dozen Ukrainian soldiers have deserted while training in France, a French army official said on Monday.
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‘Dozens’ of Ukraine soldiers deserted while training in France
Agence France-Presse . Paris 07 January, 2025, 23:36
Several dozen Ukrainian soldiers have deserted while training in France, a French army official said on Monday.
‘There have been a certain number of desertions, but they remain very marginal given the volume of people who have undergone training,’ a French army official said.
‘They were in French barracks, they had the right to go out.’
According to the French army official, the Ukrainian soldiers who were trained in France were subject to a disciplinary regime ‘imposed by the Ukrainian command’.
‘We don’t criminalise desertion in France’, the official said.
‘If someone deserted, a French prosecutor had no authority to arrest that individual. And the right granted to the Ukrainian authorities on French soil is just a disciplinary right.’
The French army trained on French territory 2,300 soldiers from a brigade named ‘Anne of Kyiv’ after a Kyiv-born princess who married French King Henri I in the 11th century.
Most of the soldiers were conscripts with no combat experience. They were accompanied by 300 Ukrainian supervisors.
The other 2,200 soldiers in the brigade were trained in Ukraine.
Earlier Monday, Ukraine’s land forces commander admitted there were ‘problems’ with the army unit after reports that many of its soldiers had deserted.
The unit was one of several formed last year as Ukraine sought to boost preparations for possible new Russian offensives.
‘Yes, there are problems, we are aware of them,’ Land Forces Commander Mykhailo Drapaty said of the Anne of Kyiv unit, the informal name for the 155th Mechanised Brigade, in сomments to media including AFP.
Prominent Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov wrote in December that 1,700 soldiers had fled the brigade without going into combat, and that 50 had escaped while training in France.
Asked about Butusov’s report, Drapaty said: ‘I will not refute it.’
He said ‘a number of the facts that were presented did take place’, while ‘perhaps not on the scale and scope that was presented’.
‘I don’t really see what could be described as an abuse of power,’ said the French army official.
‘In any case, nothing has come to light about the Ukrainians being stationed in France or what happened during these training sessions.’
He insisted that the training had been in line with the Ukrainians’ wishes, in terms of ‘equipment’ and ‘training time’.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has become a major geopolitical crisis of the 21st century.
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Russia-Ukraine conflict and the shifting alliances in Central Asia
File photo: AFP
The war between Russia and Ukraine has become a major geopolitical crisis of the 21st century. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, numerous countries, including the US, UK, EU, Australia, Canada, and Japan, have imposed over 19,535 sanctions against Russia. Their primary focus has been on Russia's financial resources. Approximately half of its total reserves—amounting to $350 billion—were frozen, impacting its foreign currency reserves. According to the EU, approximately 70 percent of the assets of Russian banks were frozen by a high-speed messaging service for financial institutions.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has undoubtedly influenced the relationship between Moscow and its allies. Following the imposition of sanctions on Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a significant swing towards China, signing a series of agreements. The impact of this war was not only on Western and Russian relations but also on Russia's close allies. In this regard, Central Asian countries are now forced to strike a difficult balance between their long-standing relations with Russia and other large powers. While the region has historically relied on Russia for economic and security relationships, the protracted conflict has produced new challenges and possibilities, prompting these countries to pursue a more assertive but cautious foreign policy. At the same time, this upheaval and Russia's dependence on China create a golden opportunity for China to strengthen its ties with Central Asia.
Though, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the five Central Asian countries have gained more political and economic independence. Historically, the Central Asian Republics (CARs)—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan—have always viewed Russia as a guarantor of security for internal stability and protection against foreign threats. Since their independence from the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries have faced a difficult transition from a common Soviet history to divergent nation-building and economic liberalisation pathways. The five Central Asian states are part of one or more Russian-led organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), and the Eurasian Economic Union. These institutions provide forums for regional security and economic partnership with Russia, allowing Russia to maintain a substantial influence in Central Asia's geopolitical landscape. For example, in 2021, when the Taliban reclaimed control in Afghanistan, Russia stationed military equipment on the Tajik-Afghan border as part of the CSTO and conducted joint military drills with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan within 20 kilometres from the Afghan border. This exhibition aims to demonstrate Russia's military readiness in its own backyard in the event of an attack on Central Asia by the Taliban or other terrorist outfits. Similarly, in January 2022, Moscow dispatched soldiers from the CSTO to quash unrest in Kazakhstan.
Economically, Central Asia also depended on Russia. Moscow's energy and trade participation in the region was intended to lock the governments into a vital dependency, giving the Kremlin control over their internal and foreign policy decisions. For example, Kazakhstan exports 80 percent of its oil through the Caspian oil pipeline, which passes through Russian territory. The number of economic migrants who go to Russia for work is relatively high compared to other migrant workers worldwide. For example, approximately nine million Central Asians live and work in Russia, and practically every major city relies on their labour. According to a June 2022 report by the United Nations' International Organization for Migration (IOM), remittances from Russia to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan accounted for 31 percent and 27 percent of GDP, respectively, in 2020. The majority of this money is expected to come from their employees in Russia. In 2021, remittances from Russia accounted for 55 percent of total transfers to Uzbekistan and 51 percent to Kazakhstan.
However, the CARs' internal unrest, Russia's actions in Ukraine, and growing concerns about sovereignty have forced Central Asian nations to look for new allies for long-term security cooperation and are diversifying their foreign policy in an effort to reduce Moscow's influence. Furthermore, Western sanctions on Russia led the CARs to seek alternate channels to sell commodities to the world market. Therefore, CARs have responded to the altering geopolitical landscape in a variety of ways, including preserving economic links with Russia, avoiding outright criticism of Moscow, and increasing partnerships with other global powers such as China, the West, and Turkey.
Since the beginning of the Russian-Ukraine war, Central Asian leaders have also been at the forefront of the so-called "multi-vector" foreign policy approach, aiming for balanced relations with Russia as well as other countries such as China, the West, and Turkey. The states of the region refused to accept Russia's recently seized areas in Ukraine, and some issued public declarations in support of Ukraine's territorial integrity in the early days of the 2022 war.
Nonetheless, these powers did not openly condemn Vladimir Putin and his "special military operation." Various factors are at play here, including economic reliance, Central Asian immigration, and membership in Russia-led institutions.
Moreover, according to polls, the majority of Central Asians—70 percent in Kyrgyzstan, 55 percent in Kazakhstan, and 30 percent in Uzbekistan—ascribe the regions current economic difficulties to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The popularity of the Russian language is declining, entertainment venues are refusing to host Russian performers, and there have been multiple anti-war protests in Almaty and Bishkek. Russia has blocked Central Asian media sites for attempting to provide unbiased coverage of the conflict in Ukraine. The public conversation has returned to the topic of decolonisation.
On the other hand, Central Asia is a strategically important region for China due to its abundant resources, transit links, and shared border, which are vital for China's security. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) underscores its interest in the region, leveraging growing unease and Russia's focus on Ukraine. Central Asian nations increasingly rely on China for both security and economic resources, potentially challenging Russian dominance and jeopardising Moscow's security interests. Despite a recent decline in historical hostility between the two sides, Russia believes that China's increasing economy might soon enable it to contest Moscow's geopolitical sway in Central Asia.
Notably, China is assisting the CARs in strengthening their security and law enforcement capabilities by capitalising on their worries about Russia. During his visit to Central Asia in September 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that he supported Kazakhstan's territorial integrity in light of these exceptional circumstances. When Xi called the China-Central Asia Summit to order in Xi'an in May 2023, he emphasised the significance of the security, sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of the CARs. In the midst of the intensifying powerplay among the world's strongest nations, Beijing is taking big measures to expand its regional influence in order to counter the US's encirclement of China.
China is still dedicated to its long-standing regional objectives. With over half of China's trade and investment going to Kazakhstan, Beijing sees the country as its main economic partner in Central Asia. China's economic interests are further supported by the transportation opportunities that have emerged since Russia's invasion.
Beijing is becoming increasingly interested in playing the role of a security supplier in the region due to its rising concerns about the unrest in Afghanistan and Central Asia. This development may cause future difficulties with Moscow. China-Central Asia's security cooperation has already been strengthened by BRI efforts. More robust security allies like China could undermine Russia's position as the principal security guarantor. China's growing influence in Central Asia after the invasion presents a challenge to Moscow's dominance, potentially altering the dynamics of security cooperation and posing future complications for Moscow.
Md Tariqul Islam Tanvir is Erasmus scholar in the International Master in Central & East European, Russian & Eurasian Studies programme at the University of Glasgow.
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