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The safest path for us is to maintain strategic neutrality

The biggest challenge on the context of Bangladesh is situation in Myanmar. The ongoing civil war there has begun to affect us. Notably, nearly 80 per cent of Rakhine territory has come under the control of the Arakan Army. The Bangladesh–Myanmar border is now entirely controlled by the Arakan...

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Interview: ANM Muniruzzaman
The safest path for us is to maintain strategic neutrality

ANM Muniruzzaman is a security analyst and president of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS). In an interview with Prothom Alo's Monoj Dey, he talks about the new geopolitical challenges faced by post-5 August Bangladesh, the Rakhine and Rohingya crisis, the risk of extremist activities by Bangladeshis in Malaysia, and more.

Prothom Alo: What are the complex geopolitical challenges that have emerged in front of the post-5 August Bangladesh?
ANM Muniruzzaman: The biggest challenge on the context of Bangladesh is situation in Myanmar. The ongoing civil war there has begun to affect us. Notably, nearly 80 per cent of Rakhine territory has come under the control of the Arakan Army. The Bangladesh–Myanmar border is now entirely controlled by the Arakan Army. The situation in Myanmar’s Chin State is also unstable and its impact is spilling over into Rakhine. For all these reasons, we must closely monitor developments in this region to ensure that the conflict there does not spill over into our territory in any way.

Myanmar is going through a complex international, geopolitical, and geostrategic situation. Three major powers have direct interest in Rakhine. In particular, China has established its presence there centered on the deep-sea port of Kyaukpyu. A significant portion of China's energy supply is now being transported through this port. There is a direct pipeline from Kyaukpyu to Kunming, making China deeply invested in Rakhine from a geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic perspective. China has set up several specialised economic zones in Rakhine.

Similarly, Russia has also established a presence in Rakhine and become involved in geo-economic activities. Russia, too, has begun setting up specialised economic zones in the region.

India also has deep interests in Rakhine, particularly because of the Kaladan Multimodal Highway. Progress has been made on the highway stretching from Sittwe to Mizoram, and India is now working to further expand this project. At the same time, the West, especially the United States, is closely monitoring the situation in Myanmar and Rakhine. The US Congress has passed the Burma Act, which enables them to provide direct assistance to various groups in Myanmar.

Overall, the civil war in Myanmar and the growing involvement of major powers mean that Bangladesh could potentially face a wide range of impacts.

Prothom Alo: India’s Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan has said that China, Pakistan and Bangladesh are leaning toward one another in their own interests. Since the fall of the Hasina government on 5 August, similar statements have been repeatedly made by top Indian officials. In recent months, there have also been incidents of push-ins from India. How do you view India’s position regarding Bangladesh?
ANM Muniruzzaman: Since 5 August, there has been a noticeable deterioration in Bangladesh–India relations. There is a kind of direct tension between the two countries on various issues. Recently, we have observed that a significant number of Indian nationals are being pushed into Bangladesh from India. This is completely illegal.

In addition, we’ve seen various statements from the Indian side from time to time that are not in keeping with Bangladesh’s interests. Most recently, a statement from the Indian armed forces expressed concern over a trilateral arrangement involving China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh in Kunming, China. While the purpose of this trilateral arrangement has been hinted at, detailed discussions on the matter have not yet taken place. It remains unclear where this will lead.

Even so, India has expressed deep concern. The reason is that we are beginning to see signs of a new polarisation in South Asia, much of which is becoming linked to China. Given the kind of tensions that exist in India’s relationship with China, any agreement, strategic arrangement, or partnership between China and another South Asian country is unlikely to be viewed positively by India.

Prothom Alo : The India-Pakistan tensions had hardly subsided when the Iran-Israel war shook the world. How much geopolitical risk do you think Bangladesh faces in this increasingly conflict-prone global reality?

ANM Muniruzzaman: The world today is closely interconnected. Whenever conflict arises in any part of the world, its impact is directly felt in Bangladesh, just as it is in other countries. We’ve seen that the recent disruption of stability in South Asia has had adverse consequences for Bangladesh. Similarly, the current state of conflict in the Middle East is also having a direct negative impact on us. This is because the Middle East is our largest labour market with over 3 million Bangladeshis working there. It is also a major source of our foreign currency earnings.

As a country, we heavily depend on energy imports. The conflict in the Middle East poses a serious threat to both our energy security and economic security. We have already seen how the Ukraine war, ongoing for more than three years, has had a negative impact on Bangladesh’s economy. We import a large amount of wheat from Ukraine and that market has now become risky. We also import fertiliser from Russia, which has similarly come to be seen as an unstable market.

Therefore, any conflict leads to geopolitical and geo-economic challenges for Bangladesh. We cannot avoid this reality. However, we must take measures to contain the impact as far as possible.

Prothom Alo: In both cases, we see that the nature of conflict has changed. This warfare based on drones, missiles and modern technology has exposed the vulnerabilities of our national security system. What should Bangladesh do in this situation?
ANM Muniruzzaman: There have been radical changes in the fields of national security and warfare in today's world. The traditional concepts framework of warfare and national security are being completely transformed. War is no longer conducted solely by the military. It is shifting entirely towards technology-driven warfare. We urgently need a comprehensive national-level discussion to decide how to revamp our national security framework. Our armed forces and defence systems must be modernised and restructured based on advanced technology.

Prothom Alo: You previously spoke about establishing a National Security Coordination Agency. Has that become even more relevant in the current reality?
ANM Muniruzzaman: This has become more relevant than ever before. There are glaring gaps in Bangladesh’s state-level policies, especially regarding national defence policy and national security policy, which have not yet been clearly formulated. Such policies are extremely important for any country. So far, we have not been able to establish a proper national security architecture or state security framework. As a result, coordinating our capabilities at the state level often cannot be done effectively in many areas.

National security is not solely the concern of the armed forces. In today’s world, the entire society, government and state are involved in this area. We must very soon establish the kind of infrastructure needed to coordinate all state capabilities under one umbrella. So far, there have been significant gaps in this regard. This is completely unacceptable.

To be continued....................​

 

[Saif]

Prothom Alo : Given Bangladesh’s geographical location and geopolitical realities, how realistic is it for the country to lean towards any single global or regional power? What should Bangladesh’s policy stance be in this regard?

ANM Muniruzzaman: Bangladesh occupies a very important geopolitical position. In particular, we are located at the gateway to the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh is also a significant country in the Indian Ocean region. Because of this, Bangladesh’s geopolitical importance in today’s world has increased considerably and risen to a higher level. Due to the Indo-Pacific Strategy formulated by the United States and the West, the Indian Ocean has become a strategically important area.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) also shows that through various corridors, China is increasingly involved with the Indian Ocean. Thus, with both major powers having strong interests and focus on the same ocean, our geopolitical situation is becoming somewhat sensitive.

In this context, the most important step for us is to maintain neutrality in all matters. We should avoid becoming solely aligned with any one group or agreement. While preserving our national interests, we want to work with everyone and at the same time maintain our neutrality. If we become exclusively aligned with one party, we risk coming under the negative perception of the other side, which could harm our interests and security. Therefore, the safest path for us is to uphold strategic neutrality and strategic self-reliance.

We are lacking the capacity to monitor or control extremist activities. We are unable to properly assess where and how extremist threats are emerging within our own borders. This issue demands our urgent attention

Prothom Alo : The balance of the civil war in Myanmar has tilted toward the rebel groups. Much of Rakhine is now under the control of the Arakan Army. Due to the Rohingya issue, we have significant interests in Rakhine. China and India also have major stakes in the state. Additionally, the US has passed the Burma Act to support Myanmar’s democratic process. Altogether, a complex geopolitical equation surrounds Myanmar and Rakhine. What could be Bangladesh’s strategic approach in this situation?

ANM Muniruzzaman: We need to move forward on two fronts. We have official relations with Myanmar’s central government, which we have recognised. At the same time, control of our neighboring Rakhine State has shifted to the Arakan Army. However, the Arakan Army is not a recognised state actor. They are a non-state entity. As a state, we cannot engage in direct talks with them. Even so, we must find a way to establish effective communication with the Arakan Army through alternative channels. In this case, strategic manoeuvering will be more useful than conventional diplomacy.

In some areas, we will need to engage in open diplomacy, while in others, we must rely on backchannel diplomacy. This is a major challenge for our foreign ministry to demonstrate its strategic capacity, as we must maintain effective relations with both sides. Also, under no circumstances should we take any action that directly contradicts the interests of the Myanmar government.

Prothom Alo: The situation in Rakhine has added a new dimension to the Rohingya crisis. Rohingya armed groups are visibly active. There are fresh arrivals of Rohingyas, but international assistance had decreased. How complex has had repatriation of the Rohingyas to their homeland become?
ANM Muniruzzaman: The Rohingya situation is shifting from a humanitarian crisis to a security problem. Many within the Rohingya camps and among the Rohingya population are getting involved in various illegal activities. A number of them are now involved in drug trafficking. Human trafficking to different countries is also taking place from these camps. Various types of small arms are entering the camps and being smuggled into other countries. As a result, this is not only creating a complex situation for our internal security, but is increasingly becoming a serious threat to regional security as well.

Moreover, the rise of extremist ideologies in the region is starting to influence the Rohingya community in the camps. Armed groups like ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army) and RSO (Rohingya Solidarity Organisation) have already engaged in various conflicts within Rakhine. In some cases, they have fought against the Arakan Army. Given the extent of control the Arakan Army now holds over Rakhine, the Rohingyas will not be able to return to their homeland without its support.

Because of the activities of groups like ARSA and RSO, the Arakan Army has taken a strongly negative stance toward Rohingya repatriation. Even if the central government of Myanmar agrees to take them back, it’s likely that the Arakan Army will not open the path for their return. As a result, the future of Rohingya repatriation is highly uncertain. It seems unlikely that they will be able to return in the near future.

Therefore, we must reconsider how we will continue to host this large population, as international aid for the Rohingya is declining at an alarming rate.

Prothom Alo: Recently, several young Bangladeshis in Malaysia have been accused of involvement in extremist activities. How much of a risk does this pose for us in the context of both global and our domestic security?
ANM Muniruzzaman: The involvement of Bangladeshi youths in extremist activities in Malaysia is a major cause for concern. Malaysia is one of our largest labour markets. The problem created by these extremist youths is not confined to Malaysia alone. They were reportedly raising funds there to send to ISIS in the Middle East, which adds an international dimension to the issue. There is also a strong possibility that such extremist groups have links inside Bangladesh as well. So, we should not view this merely as a problem limited to Malaysia. We need to thoroughly investigate what kind of threats they may pose within Bangladesh and to whom they are connected.

Another major concern is that Bangladesh’s internal security situation is currently in a very precarious state. Since 5 August, the police have not been functioning effectively. Specialised units were formed within the police force to counter extremism and militancy, but those units are now completely inactive. The capabilities that had been built within those units have almost been dismantled. As a result, we are lacking the capacity to monitor or control extremist activities. We are unable to properly assess where and how extremist threats are emerging within our own borders. This issue demands our urgent attention.

If we do not take strong, clear and visible action regarding those who are in prison or being deported from Malaysia, it will not just affect our labour market in Malaysia, but in other countries like Singapore as well. The home ministry must take immediate and decisive action in this regard. Unfortunately, we have not seen any visible initiative from the ministry so far. They have not responded to this issue with the seriousness it demands. This weakness could potentially deepen the crisis even further.

Prothom Alo : Thank you.

ANM Muniruzzaman: Thank you too.​