[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

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Bangladesh presses Myanmar to resolve border issue

Bangladesh has called on Myanmar to address the ongoing border and Rakhine issues, stressing that it cannot engage in negotiations with non-state actors, such as the Arakan Army, over control of the border. Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanm

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Bangladesh presses Myanmar to resolve border issue
Published :
Dec 22, 2024 17:20
Updated :
Dec 22, 2024 17:20

Bangladesh has called on Myanmar to address the ongoing border and Rakhine issues, stressing that it cannot engage in negotiations with non-state actors, such as the Arakan Army, over control of the border.

Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held on Thursday in Thailand.

Senior representatives from Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, China, Laos, and other nations attended the consultation, BSS reports.

"I informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under your control. It is now controlled by non-state actors like the Arakan Army. As a state, we cannot engage with them. Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine," Hossain told reporters, sharing details of his discussions at the informal consultation.

He said, in reply, Myanmar informed him that they are trying to take over control of the border to resolve the issue.

Hossain reaffirmed Bangladesh’s policy of not allowing any further Rohingya refugees to enter the country.

However, he acknowledged that, under certain circumstances, Bangladesh had been compelled to accept 60,000 Rohingyas through various unofficial routes.

He also highlighted widespread corruption at the border, which facilitates the entry of Rohingyas.

"They are not entering through a single route; they are coming through multiple routes, making it very difficult to stop," Hossain said.

Responding to a question about a potential new influx of Rohingyas, Hossain dismissed these fears.

"I do not believe another influx will occur, although many are concerned. We too share these concerns, but we must take measures to prevent it, working with the international community," he said.

The meeting in Thailand on Thursday was chaired by Thailand's Foreign Minister, Maris Sangiampongsar, and included Myanmar's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe, Laos's Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, and China's Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.

Bangladesh was represented by Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain.

Hossain mentioned that the meeting focused on three main issues: the border, drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and Myanmar’s political future.

During the meeting, Hossain emphasised that peace and stability in the region would remain elusive without a resolution to the Rohingya crisis.

"Criminals are present on both sides of the border and in the camps, and I highlighted these concerns," he added.

On Myanmar's political future, Hossain noted that all participants expressed support for Myanmar’s efforts to resolve its internal issues and move forward.

“Everyone said they would support Myanmar, and if they choose a federal structure, we will not intervene. But we want a resolution," Hossain said.

Regarding border issues, the adviser explained that the discussions mainly focused on the northeastern and southern borders, with particular attention given to the western border, where Bangladesh has strategic interests.

Concerns were also raised about the rise of scam centres engaged in internet crimes, which have been troubling Myanmar, along with ongoing issues such as drug trafficking and border-related criminal activities.

Representatives from other countries urged Myanmar to take appropriate measures to address these concerns.​

 

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Bangladesh must stay vigilant amid growing Myanmar crisis

The situation is becoming increasingly complex

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Bangladesh must stay vigilant amid growing Myanmar crisis
The situation is becoming increasingly complex

VISUAL: STAR

The ongoing conflict in Myanmar between the military junta, the Arakan Army, and other rebel groups has thrown up yet another curveball for Bangladesh. The Arakan Army recently claimed to have captured the last Myanmar army outpost in the strategic western town of Maungdaw, thereby gaining full control of the 271-kilometre-long border with Bangladesh. In light of this development, Bangladesh has urged Myanmar to address the ongoing crisis in Rakhine State and along its borders, emphasising that it cannot negotiate with non-state actors like the Arakan Army.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held in Thailand on December 19. He also stressed that peace and stability in the region would remain unattainable without resolving the Rohingya crisis, which necessitates their safe and secure repatriation to Myanmar. According to the foreign adviser, at least 1.2 million Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh over the past seven years due to Myanmar's civil war and the persecution of Rohingyas. Moreover, Bangladesh recently had to accept over 60,000 additional Rohingyas through various unofficial channels, despite its decision to prohibit new arrivals. This has been attributed to corruption at the border, which has left the Bangladesh government with limited options.

Bangladesh recently had to accept over 60,000 additional Rohingyas through various unofficial channels, despite its decision to prohibit new arrivals. This has been attributed to corruption at the border, which has left the Bangladesh government with limited options.

Clearly, the situation is becoming increasingly complex and concerning for Bangladesh. Corruption along the border, facilitating the influx of Rohingyas and potentially fuelling drug, weapon, and human trafficking, poses a growing security threat. Therefore, it is imperative for the government to address these issues urgently before they escalate further. Moreover, given the current border situation, progress in the Rohingya repatriation process has completely stalled. But how long can Bangladesh continue to provide shelter to them, especially with foreign aid to support Rohingyas steadily dwindling in recent years? The economic, environmental, and social burdens Bangladesh is shouldering to accommodate the Rohingyas are becoming more unsustainable by the day. The potential for further destabilisation, both for Bangladesh and the broader region, continues to grow because of the conflict.

The recent escalation of violence in Rakhine has again raised fears of a revival of organised violence against members of the Muslim Rohingya minority community, similar to that which drove huge numbers of them to flee to Bangladesh in 2017. Under these circumstances, Bangladesh must be extra vigilant about securing its border with Myanmar. At the same time, with the aid of the international community, the government should persuade the Myanmar junta and the various rebel factions to reach a peaceful resolution through dialogue for the sake of restoring regional stability.​

 

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Bangladesh reaffirms to stop further infiltration as conflicts in Myanmar escalate

Amid escalating conflicts in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, Bangladesh on Tuesday reiterated that it would take all necessary steps to ensure required security along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and stop further infiltration into Bangladesh. “Bangladesh will do whatever is necessary for its

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Bangladesh reaffirms to stop further infiltration as conflicts in Myanmar escalate
FE ONLINE DESK
Published :
Dec 24, 2024 22:14
Updated :
Dec 24, 2024 22:14

Amid escalating conflicts in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, Bangladesh on Tuesday reiterated that it would take all necessary steps to ensure required security along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and stop further infiltration into Bangladesh.

“Bangladesh will do whatever is necessary for its securing its border. All relevant agencies of the Bangladesh government, including the BGB (Border Guard Bangladesh), are on the highest and appropriate alert in this regard to prevent new infiltration into Bangladesh,” spokesperson at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mohammad Rafiqul Alam told reporters at its weekly briefing.

On December 8, he said, the Arakan Army captured Maungdaw city in Rakhine State, taking control of 13 out of 17 cities, reports UNB.

Responding to a question, Rafiqul Alam said it is difficult to say how many people are waiting on the other side of the border.

Bangladesh informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under their control; rather it is now controlled by non-state actors like the Arakan Army.

As a state, Bangladesh says, it cannot engage with a non-state actor and Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine.

Bangladesh renewed the call for a "comprehensive roadmap" for Rohingya repatriation with priority attached to ensuring stability in Rakhine State.

On Sunday, Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain said Bangladesh had to accept over 60,000 Rohingyas under certain circumstances through various unofficial channels, including border-related corruption, despite its decision in principle not to allow any new arrivals from Myanmar.

“We had a position in principle that no new arrival one will be allowed. No one was allowed formally. Another thing we need to keep in mind is that there is huge corruption at the border. And it is true,” he said while talking to reporters at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on his recent informal consultation at the ministerial level among Myanmar and its five neighbouring countries.

The six-nation consultation was held in Bangkok on Thursday under the chairmanship of the Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa.

The meeting was attended, among others, by Myanmar Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Than Swe.

Responding to a question, Hossain said the Rohingyas are not entering Bangladesh through a single route; they are coming through multiple routes, making it very difficult to stop.

Asked about a potential new influx of Rohingya refugees, he dismissed such possibilities. "I do not believe another influx will occur, although many are concerned. We too share these concerns, but we must take measures to prevent it, working with the international community," Hossain said.

Bangladesh is aware of the civil war situation currently prevailing in Myanmar, and the 1.2 million Rohingyas who were forcibly displaced from the Rakhine state under extreme atrocities, and are sheltered in Bangladesh for the last 7 plus years.

There has been no progress in their repatriation and the situation is further complicated by a non-state actor, the Arakan Army taking control of the entire border with Bangladesh, Adviser Hossain said.

Referring to his meeting in Bangkok, the Foreign Adviser said, "I told them in no uncertain terms that peace and order will not be possible in Myanmar, and consequently in the region, unless the Rohingyas lodged in Myanmar can go back to their homes with security and rights."

"It is incumbent on Myanmar and the regional powers to create a congenial atmosphere for their return, he said. “I had the scope to talk in detail as it was an informal discussion and I explained our position clearly,” Hossain told reporters at the foreign ministry.

“If Rohingya problem is not resolved, peace and stability that you are thinking of will never be achieved,” he said, while conveying Bangladesh’s position during the meeting in Bangkok.​

 

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Rohingya humanitarian crisis

THE Rohingya issue is a telling indicator of how the crisis calls for urgent solidarity across borders in the wake of unimaginable human agony. Since August 2017, when Myanmar’s military...

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Rohingya humanitarian crisis
by Serajul I Bhuiyan 26 December, 2024, 00:00

The photograph taken in September 12 shows a view of the Kutupalong Rohingya camp in Ukhia, Cox’s Bazar. | Agence France-Presse/Munir uz Zaman

THE Rohingya issue is a telling indicator of how the crisis calls for urgent solidarity across borders in the wake of unimaginable human agony. Since August 2017, when Myanmar’s military launched a campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingyas in Rakhine State, Bangladesh opened its borders to more than a million individuals. While this unparalleled humanitarian response has earned widespread international acclaim, the weight of this crisis bears heavily on Bangladesh. Strained national resources, a politicised domestic debate and a reordered set of diplomatic relations have pulled Bangladesh into a precarious balancing act. For the international community, the crisis is not purely a regional affair but a common cause that demands concerted intervention.

The Rohingyas, an overwhelmingly Muslim minority in a Buddhist-majority Myanmar, have been subjected to decades of systemic persecution. Denied citizenship under Myanmar’s 1982 citizenship law, they were rendered stateless. Myanmar’s military and people have perpetrated discrimination, forced labour and violence on the Rohingyas, culminating in the 2017 crackdown. In months, more than 700,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh, adding to the thousands who had fled to Bangladesh during earlier waves of violence.

At the very outset, Bangladesh was regarded as an icon because of its welcoming the Rohingyas. Cox’s Bazar, which houses the largest refugee camp in the world, epitomises the response. Emergency assistance including shelter and health care provided by the government along with international organisations such as the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and non-governmental organisation, ensued. The response has saved many lives, but the long-term consequences of hosting such a large population are becoming increasingly apparent.

Challenges

Hosting over a million refugees in one of the world’s most densely populated countries has strained Bangladesh’s infrastructure and resources. To accommodate refugee camps, vast areas of forests in Cox’s Bazar were cleared, causing ecological degradation. The sudden influx put water resources and sanitation facilities under stress, raising health concerns. Although international aid provides substantial support, the government has to bear considerable costs for managing the crisis. The local communities in Cox’s Bazar have seen inflation, decrease in wages and competition for resources.

The Rohingya crisis is a very contentious issue in Bangladeshi politics and there are multiple dimensions that affect domestic stability. Reports of illegal activities, which include human trafficking, drug smuggling and the potential for radicalisation within the camps, have caused alarm. Such a large stateless population has posed some long-term security risks. What began as general public support for hosting the Rohingyas seems to be slowly turning into anger among the local people around Cox’s Bazar who feel marginalised. The opposition have at times blamed the government for mismanaging the crisis for political mileage. The political polarisation makes it difficult to develop a unified national strategy in handling the crisis.

Geopolitical implications

Relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar have worsened. Despite multiple repatriation agreements, Myanmar has demonstrated little commitment to ensuring safe, voluntary, and dignified returns for the Rohingyas. Border tension has flared, with accusations of military incursion and shelling. China plays the role of a mediator between Bangladesh and Myanmar while it protects Myanmar’s interests on the global stage. Bangladesh has to play along carefully with China for economic reasons. India has given a lukewarm reaction as it balances strategic interests with Myanmar and relationship with Bangladesh. It gave humanitarian aid but stopped short of strongly condemning Myanmar’s action. Western nations, particularly the United States and the European Union, have provided significant humanitarian aid and imposed sanctions in Myanmar. However, they have not been able to pressure Myanmar sufficiently for a resolution.

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Co-operation have largely been ineffective in addressing the crisis, reflecting the limitations of regional cooperation. The response of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has been criticised as tepid, given its principle of non-interference. Bangladesh’s diplomatic efforts have focused on gaining international support for repatriation and humanitarian aid. While the United Nations has condemned Myanmar, enforcement mechanisms are weak. The ICC investigation of alleged crimes against the Rohingya adds a legal dimension to the crisis but has yet to yield tangible outcomes.

Economic implications

The inflow of international aid has generated some economic activities, especially in Cox’s Bazar. Infrastructure development, logistics and services industries have benefited. But over-reliance on foreign aid can weaken local governance and long-term economic planning. Political instability associated with the crisis may deter foreign investment, especially in areas near the camps.

Arakan army’s dominance

The Arakan Army is one of the most powerful ethnic armed groups in Myanmar and over the past year, it has consolidated control over key areas of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, including Maungdaw Township. Now, with the seizure of authority over the entire 270-kilometre border previously managed by Myanmar’s military junta, the Arakan Army has added a fresh layer of complexity to the already fraught Rohingya crisis. This strategic dominance disrupts local governance, fuels regional instability and raises significant security concern for Bangladesh, which shares this volatile frontier.

The presence of the Arakan Army further complicates the plight of the Rohingya refugees, who remain one of the most vulnerable communities in the region. Accused of rights violations, including forced displacements and violent attacks against the Rohingya, the group has deepened the crisis. The actions hinder repatriation efforts and leave more than a million Rohingya refugees in the camps of Bangladesh with little hope for a safe return. The possibility of increased cross-border tension and a fresh wave of displacement heightens the stress on resources and the security apparatus of Bangladesh. This is a growing situation that underlines a need for a coordinated regional approach to address the humanitarian and geopolitical challenges posed by the territorial gains of the Arakan Army.

The Rohingyas are unwilling to return to Myanmar without guarantees of citizenship, safety, and rights. Myanmar resists international pressure, adding to the stalemate. Bangladesh has resisted giving the Rohingyas permanent status out of fear that it would encourage more influxes and further tear its social fabric. Proposals for relocating refugees to Bhasan Char, a remote island, have been criticised on safety and isolation grounds. As international focus shifts to other crises, sustaining aid and advocacy for the Rohingyas becomes increasingly challenging.

Path forward

THE Rohingya crisis, with its deep-rooted humanitarian, political, and security dimensions, requires a multi-pronged approach to address its challenges effectively. Coordinated global efforts are vital to holding Myanmar accountable for its actions against the Rohingya community. Countries must amplify diplomatic pressure by suspending bilateral agreements, withholding development aid and excluding Myanmar from international forums unless it takes concrete steps toward resolving the crisis. Comprehensive sanctions targeting Myanmar’s military leadership and their economic interests can deter continued persecution. The measures should be coupled with strict enforcement to prevent evasion. International institutions, rights organisations and influential nations must sustain global attention on the crisis through advocacy and campaigns that highlight the plight of the Rohingyas and the responsibility of the Myanmar government. The magnitude of the crisis warrants stronger regional collaboration, particularly among South and Southeast Asian countries.

A cohesive framework for refugee management, spearheaded by the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations can distribute the humanitarian burden across the region. This includes commitments for financial contributions, temporary resettlement, and shared logistical support. Regional countries must strengthen border management to prevent human trafficking and ensure that the refugee camps do not become hubs for illegal activities. Regional powers such as India and China can facilitate constructive dialogues between Bangladesh and Myanmar to build trust and explore pathways for repatriation. Cox’s Bazar, the epicentre of the Rohingya refugee crisis, requires substantial investment to alleviate pressure on local communities and create a sustainable environment for all. Projects focused on improving roads, water supply and sanitation systems can serve both refugees and local residents.

Educational programmes tailored for refugees and host community members can foster economic self-reliance and reduce social tension. Expanding healthcare facilities ensures improved living conditions for refugees and minimizes the strain on local health services. These efforts also reduce the risk of disease outbreaks, which could affect both populations. Legal action through international courts is an essential avenue to seek justice and set a global precedent against ethnic cleansing and genocide. Supporting the International Criminal Court investigation of Myanmar’s military leaders for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity can bring accountability. Cases brought before the International Court of Justice by states or organisations, as seen in the Gambia’s filing against Myanmar, demonstrate the potential of legal mechanisms to pressure compliance with international norms. Continued efforts to gather and preserve evidence of atrocities are critical for the success of these legal initiatives.

While voluntary and safe repatriation remains the ultimate goal, realistic contingency planning is crucial to address the prolonged displacement of the Rohingya. Refugees must be provided with opportunities for education, vocational training and employment, enabling them to contribute positively to host economies. Building partnerships between refugees and host communities through joint initiatives can foster social harmony and mitigate resentment. For the controversial relocation plan to succeed, measures must be taken to ensure the safety, sustainability, and voluntariness of refugee transfers to Bhasan Char island.

Call for solidarity and action

THE Rohingya crisis needs not only urgent humanitarian responses but also far-reaching and visionary strategies embedded in cooperation and justice. This solution requires firm commitments on part of the international community, from diplomatic pressure on Myanmar to regional harmony and sustainable development. Seeking accountability through courts of law and contemplating dignified futures for refugees are key components in marking the road towards a resolution. The acts are a testament to the collective commitment to uphold human rights, ensure regional stability, and adhere to shared values of humanity.

To Bangladesh, this crisis is not a national challenge but a moment in history that tests its resilience, compassion, and leadership. The burden is immense, affecting its politics, economy and global standing, but hope abounds in transformative leadership and global solidarity. It is through unity and shared responsibility that the path to peace and dignity for the Rohingyas can be realised.

Dr Serajul I Bhuiyan is a professor and former chair of the journalism and mass communications department at Savannah State University, Georgia.​

 

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Bangladesh’s Rakhine dilemma

MYANMAR’S Rakhine State with 36,780 square kilometres of land area is composed of seven districts — Ann, Kyaukphyu, Maungdaw, Mrauk-U, Sittwe, Taungup and Thandwe. As of December 25...

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Bangladesh’s Rakhine dilemma
by Mohammad Abdur Razzak 28 December, 2024, 00:00

A file photo shows Rohingya refugees gathering in the ‘no man’s land’ behind Myanmar’s border lined with barb wire fences in Maungdaw, Rakhine state bounded by Bangladesh, in April 25, 2018. | Agence France-Presse/Ye Aung Thu

MYANMAR’S Rakhine State with 36,780 square kilometres of land area is composed of seven districts — Ann, Kyaukphyu, Maungdaw, Mrauk-U, Sittwe, Taungup and Thandwe. As of December 25, the Arakan Army has taken the full control of five districts — Ann including western command headquarters, Maungdaw, Mrauk-U, Taungup and Thandwe along with the Paletwa in the neighbouring Chin State. The Arakan Army is now focused on Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine State and Kyaukphyu. India has 484 million dollar investment on Kaladan Multimodal Transport Transit project in Sittwe. Kyaukphyu has military significance to junta. China has strategically important investment in Kyaukphyu. A complete fall of Rakhine State appears a matter of time.

The change of control of the Rakhine State created streams of challenges for all stakeholders, including Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s stakes in Rakhine are different from those of others. The most important stake is the repatriation of more than 1.2 million Rohingyas. To repatriate Rohingyas, Bangladesh has adopted three approaches — internationalisation of the refugee issue, China-brokered bilateral agreement with Myanmar and a joint working group involving Bangladesh, China and Myanmar. Talks on the repatriation has stalled since the Chinese ambassador’s remark at a press conference on May 10, 2021 that he did not see any possibility of holding a tripartite meeting in the ‘foreseeable future’ and there is no such plan to hold such a meeting involving China, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Since then, there has not been any progress in the bilateral or tripartite arrangement. Interim measures detailed by the International Court of Justice on the protection of Rohingyas remaining inside Myanmar had no effect either. In seven years, none of the options yielded results.

Besides concerns for Rohingya repatriation, Bangladesh has grave unease at a probable increase in the unfettered supply of synthetic drugs from Myanmar. The junta-controlled Bangladesh-Myanmar border was porous, with drugs from Myanmar entering Bangladesh. An insecure border will be haven for illicit drug smugglers. In the changed situation, Bangladesh will need cooperation from the Arakan Army to keep the smuggling of drugs, arms and other contraband items in check. But it is discussed in the diplomatic circle that a state entity cannot engage diplomatically with a non-state actor. The thought contradicts the theory of necessity or the theory of reality. Bangladesh is yet to make a decision on border management.

The desolate expanse on the Bangladesh’s eastern maritime frontier is a potential ground for a wider conflict between the Arakan Army and the Myanmar navy. Apart from the Bangladesh-Myanmar land border, Rakhine cost is a life line for the Arakan Army. The junta navy could impose naval blockade to cut the lifeline. With this probability in mind, the Arakan Army could develop its maritime wing to run through the blockade.

The Arakan Army’s takeover does not portend peace in Rakhine. Rakhine State will remain restive until the fall of regime in Nay Pyi Taw. A restive Rakhine coast will affect the use of the sea by the coastal population of Teknaf and St Martins Island. They will become victims of the fight between the Arakan Army’s sea component and the Myanmar navy. Recent conflicts along the Myanmar coast spilled over into the waters of the River Naf and waters adjacent to St Martins Island, killing innocent Bangladeshi fishers. The Arakan Army and the Myanmar navy also abducted fishers at sea. They are already in the line of fire at sea. Bangladesh will have to act to defend them.

Bangladesh has always been in a dilemma in deciding the appropriate course of action except solving the face-off at sea in 2008. Bangladesh failed to appreciate the military junta’s intention after the Kofi Anan Commission’s report on the integration of the Rohingyas into Myanmar society. Bangladesh also failed to understand the purpose of Myanmar’s military build-up in northern Rakhine in June–July 2017. While the army was bringing in extra forces into northern Rakhine, the Arakan Army and the Myanmar army were holding an unofficial ceasefire. Warring parties normally do not move personnel or war materials while a truce or ceasefire is in force. Extra forces were brought in to conduct the planned Clearance Operation to evict the Rohingyas.

Ignorance or insouciance about the political and military developments across the Bangladesh’s eastern border with Myanmar together with political leadership’s debated wish resulted into a historical blunder to bear the burden of more than 1.2 million refugees and pushed the country into the uncertainty with their repatriation. Blunder was repeated by planning to relocate 100,000 refugees to Bhashan Char, far away from the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. The military regime in Nay Pyi Taw must have interpreted the relocation scheme that Bangladesh has accepted refugees and integrating them into main stream population. Consequently, the regime became disinterested in the repatriation talk. Another blunder was not creating leadership within the Rohingya community. The community needed a leader to keep them organised for settling in their homes in Myanmar.

The national unity government in June 2021 in a historical declaration cleared its position on the Rohingyas. The national unity government recognised the Rohingya as an ethnicity in Myanmar and announced the repatriation of the Rohingyas with full citizenship and other rights after toppling the military junta that had taken control of the country through a coup in 2021. The national unity government, Myanmar’s government in exile, was interested to have dialogues with Bangladesh. But it has not been in communication.

The Arakan Army was also interested in engaging with Bangladesh after the Brotherhood Alliance had launched military campaign on October 27, 2023 to topple the junta. As Bangladesh was hesitant to engage officially with the national unity government or the Arakan Army, track 2.0 or 2.5 level engagement could be a feasible option. On the other hand, India and China have played all sides — the national unity government, the Arakan Army and other armed groups fighting the regime. They also maintained a diplomatic engagement with the military ruler in Nay Pyi Taw. In December 2024, India officially invited the national unity government, the Arakan Army, the Chin National Front and the Kachin Independence Army to a seminar hosted by the Indian Council of World Affairs, a think-tank funded by the Indian government. China also held an official meeting with the Arakan Army in Tengchong, China on December 1.

In the context of the change of control of Rakhine State and situation unfolding in Myanmar, Bangladesh should shrug off shakiness and be decisive about engaging all stakeholders fighting the regime for democracy in Myanmar, and in particular the stakeholders in Rakhine politics.

Mohammad Abdur Razzak, a retired commodore of Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.​