[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

[Saif]

Asked China’s help as Myanmar conflict reached border: Quader

Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader today sought China’s intervention saying the internal conflict in Myanmar has reached the Bangladesh border

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Asked China’s help as Myanmar conflict reached border: Quader​

Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader. File photo


Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader today sought China's intervention saying the internal conflict in Myanmar has reached the Bangladesh border.

"Regular gunshots on the other side of the border are spreading panic in our people. The fighting [between the Arakan Army and Myanmar Army] is within their country. But the heavy fighting across the border is scaring people here. That is why I have sought China's intervention," he said.​

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Quader, also Awami League general secretary, made the remarks while replying to a query about tension on the Myanmar border while exchanging views with journalists at his secretariat office in Dhaka this afternoon.

Earlier in the morning, Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen paid a courtesy call on Obaidul Quader.

Responding to a question about the outcome of the meeting, Quader said China can play a key role in the repatriation of Rohingya people from Bangladesh as it is an extra burden for the country.

"Amid global crises, the flow of aid to the Rohingyas has also decreased. Feeding so many people is a big burden for Bangladesh," he added.

The Chinese envoy promised that the Asian powerhouse would try and strengthen its efforts to this end.

Quader said the US talked about free and fair polls in the past but it did not say the election was flawed.

"The United States did not say that the 12th national election was a flawed one. They will continue relations with the current government as both countries have mutual interests to this end," he said.

Quader said the election was a peaceful one.

"We do not know what else would be a free and fair election," he said adding that BNP's refusal to participate in the election didn't mean that the election was not acceptable.​

 

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Myanmar Civil War: Policy experts urge diplomatic push to end instability

As fears grow that Myanmar’s civil war and refugee crisis could deepen in the coming days, foreign policy experts are calling for a diplomatic push by the regional players to facilitate reconciliation among the warring parties.

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Myanmar Civil War: Policy experts urge diplomatic push to end instability​

Donald Lu says regional security at risk

As fears grow that Myanmar's civil war and refugee crisis could deepen in the coming days, foreign policy experts are calling for a diplomatic push by the regional players to facilitate reconciliation among the warring parties.

They said the security challenges for the regional countries, including Bangladesh and India, could go beyond control if steps are not taken immediately.

The issue came to fore when US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Donald Lu warned that the situation in Burma and the refugee crisis were not improving, and that security issues could deepen for Bangladesh and potentially for India in coming days.

"It's something we've to watch out for and enable our partners in the region, in this case Bangladesh and India, to cope with those stresses without it boiling over into instability in their countries as well," he told a discussion marking the two years of US' Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) at the US Institute of Peace in Washington DC on February 15.

Lu elaborated the role of the IPS for a free, open, prosperous and secure region and hailed Sri Lanka as an example of the success of the IPS in collaboration with partners such as India.

He also spoke about the Maldives, where China, the US, India and other countries are competing for influence, but viewed that China will be a good partner when there is genuine, actual competition.

"If there isn't competition, what we have seen over and over again is China offering unsustainable debt for unsustainable projects."

Experts said Lu's warning of regional fallouts due to the Myanmar crisis should trigger a concerted effort by the international community to stabilise Myanmar.

Bangladesh, which is the number one victim of the crisis, should increase its efforts in every manner possible.

They also said global powers are also competing for influence in resourceful Myanmar that is located strategically along the Indian Ocean.

Prof Imtiaz Ahmed of Dhaka University's International Relations Department said Washington supports Myanmar's National Unity Government (NUG), which has an armed wing "Peoples' Defence Force" that, along with the ethnic rebel groups, is fighting the Myanmar military for democracy.

He said Washington wants to have influence in this region to counter China, which has relations both with the Myanmar military and some of the rebel groups, including the Arakan Army (AA), that are now fighting in Bangladesh's bordering Rakhine state.

The civil war, which intensified following the Myanmar military's takeover of Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy in February 2021, spread further since October last year forcing hundreds of Myanmar military members to flee to India and Bangladesh.

Hundreds of thousands of Myanmar civilians, including Rohingyas, in Rakhine have already been displaced and several hundred have been waiting near the border to flee to Bangladesh, which has already been burdened by more than a million Rohingyas and is now denying accepting any more.

M Humayun Kabir, president of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute, said the Myanmar military will definitely try to take back the towns that were occupied by the rebel groups.

"Can Bangladesh stop the Myanmar nationals if the military bombs the bordering towns? There will be obvious influx and spillover of the conflict. This was already evident," he said.

The former ambassador said regional countries besides Bangladesh -- India, China, Thailand -- all will be affected by the conflict. Human trafficking, drug smuggling and conflicts within the Rohingya camps in Cox's Bazar have already been rampant, creating security concerns for Bangladesh.

Trade and connectivity projects, including those of India and China are also being affected, which is why nobody wants an unstable Myanmar, experts say.

Humayun Kabir further said China has been trying for stability in Myanmar but it is going nowhere.

"Other countries including the US, India and China should come up with a diplomatic initiative to facilitate a reconciliation."

Bangladesh, the worst victim of the Myanmar crisis, can also initiate a diplomatic move and the five-points consensus of the ASEAN -- that includes immediate cessation of violence, constructive dialogue among all parties and provision of humanitarian assistance – can be the starting point, he said.

"The ethnic rebel groups want autonomy, not independence. On the other hand, Myanmar army wants a safe exit.

There should be a big push for a solution by the actors. Bangladesh can definitely play a role here."

Prof Imtiaz says there are sociological aspects of the military in Myanmar's governance process.

"Though the majority of Bamar civilians are now fighting for democracy, military influence is very strong there. So, the western type of democracy may not be a feasible option for Myanmar.

"Also, China and India may not want the US to come into the play of Myanmar affairs."

He also said, "In recent times, we have seen India and China, despite having enmity over land borders, took similar positions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Bangladesh's election. They also work together in BRICS. So, they can also work together for stability in Myanmar."

Bangladesh Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud and Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval recently agreed to work together for this purpose, he said.

"I think this is a good move. China can also be involved here."​

 

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Myanmar Border: Gunshots, blasts ring out after 3 days’ lull

After three days of lull, fighting resumed across the Bangladesh-Myanmar border yesterday morning, with sound of gunshots and explosions travelling to residents in the nearby Balukhali area of Teknaf upazila in Cox’s Bazar.

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Myanmar Border: Gunshots, blasts ring out after 3 days’ lull​

After three days of lull, fighting resumed across the Bangladesh-Myanmar border yesterday morning, with sound of gunshots and explosions travelling to residents in the nearby Balukhali area of Teknaf upazila in Cox's Bazar.

"Residents awoke to the loud sounds of gunfire and explosions coming from the other side of the border at 7:00am today [Friday], which continued till 10:00am with brief intervals in between," Sirajul Mustafa, a member of the Whykong union parishad, told The Daily Star.

The resumption of fighting near the border has sparked fresh fear among the residents, he added.

Locals say the rebel Arakan Army has already occupied the region in Myanmar across the Balukhali border, and Myanmar's border guards fled to Bangladesh after failing to put up a resistance.

They believe the latest gunfight near the border took place between members of the Arakan Army and a Rohingya drug trafficking gang known as Nabi Hussain group.

For the past few weeks, fierce fighting has been going on between the Arakan Army and Myanmar junta forces across the border near Ghumdhum union of Naikhongchhari upazila in Bandarban, and Palongkhali union of Ukhiya upazila and Whykong union of Teknaf upazila in Cox's Bazar.

Rohingya leaders living in refugee camps in Ukhiya and Teknaf fear that a possible retaliation by Myanmar forces to regain territories in Rakhine may force more Rohingyas to attempt to enter Bangladesh.

In the midst of tension in Myanmar's Rakhine state along the border stretching from Bandarban to Cox's Bazar, nine Rohingyas tried to enter Bangladesh but were turned away Thursday morning.

Aside from that, Border Guard Bangladesh and Bangladesh Coast Guard intercepted a total of 372 Rohingyas attempting to cross the Naf river on small boats this month.

Early this month, fierce clashes broke out between the junta troops and the Arakan Army across the border from the Tumbru area of Naikhongchhari upazila.

The fighting forced 330 members of the Myanmar junta to flee to Bangladesh. They were later handed over to the Myanmar authorities on February 15.

Later, the fighting moved to the border area in Myanmar opposite Shahporir Dwip in Teknaf upazila of Cox's Bazar.

During the fighting between the Myanmar junta troops and the Arakan Army, one Bangladeshi woman and a Rohingya man were killed after a stray mortar shell landed in Ghumdhum under Naikhongchhari upazila earlier this month.​

 

[Saif]

More military bases seized in Myanmar, Rebels claim

These include Kachin, Rakhine and Mon states, and Sagaing and Bago regions

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More military bases seized in Myanmar, Rebels claim​

Myanmar's anti-junta and ethnic armed groups claimed to have captured several more bases from Myanmar Army in some regions of the country in the past five days.

These include Kachin, Rakhine and Mon states, and Sagaing and Bago regions.

 

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Myanmar trying to wage war against Bangladesh: Rab DG

'Myanmar has been doing it for a while now… they have been pushing in narcotics as well as Rohingyas into our soil,' says Khurshid Hossain

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Myanmar trying to wage war against Bangladesh: Rab DG​

Photo: Collected

Rapid Action Battalion Director General M Khurshid Hossain yesterday said Myanmar has been trying to wage war with Bangladesh for a long time.

The Rab DG said this while speaking to journalists after a programme in Kashiani upazila of Gopalganj.

"Myanmar has been doing it for a while now… they have been pushing in narcotics as well as Rohingyas into our soil," he added.

However, he said, thanks to the visionary leadership and wisdom of the prime minister, they could not succeed.

"Our premier has firmly said Bangladesh will not engage in war with anyone…," he said.

He continued, "Myanmar has a military government. They are at war with the Arakan Army. They are trying to save themselves by provoking war (with Bangladesh)."

"The situation is worsening in Myanmar… as the Arakan Army is claiming new territories within the country," he said.

Mentioning Myanmar as a major drug route, the Rab DG said drugs are being smuggled into Bangladesh in a planned way for political purposes.

However, he said that they (law enforcers) are aware of it and have already taken measures in this regard.

Drug control is a big challenge now. The Myanmar route has to be closed at any cost. Drugs have become one of the biggest businesses in Bangladesh. Anyone can get rich overnight through drug trading, he said.

All the forces have to work together to eliminate drugs, he said. He also called for a social movement against drugs.​

 

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How are guerillas in Myanmar raising their funds?

Since Myanmar's guerrilla groups are not listed as “terrorist” organisations in Europe and the US, supporters are facing no problems in raising public funds

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How are guerillas in Myanmar raising their funds?​

Before the launch of Operation 1027 in October last year, the NUG managed to collect taxes from around 38 townships. However, since then, the number of townships from which NUG collects taxes has risen close to 50. FILE PHOTO: AFP

While the Tatmadaw in Myanmar is waging war using state funds, one may wonder: from where is the opposition, the guerillas, getting so many resources? What's the origin of their funds? The surprising fact is that, in their efforts to raise money, the guerillas have successfully established their very own bank—an extremely rare feat in the history of guerilla warfare.

How the 'guerilla bank' started its journey

Guerillas have different names in different regions of Myanmar. In the seven marginal provinces, the guerilla groups comprising non-Bamar tribes mainly raise funds through local businesses and contributions. These businesses involve everything, from timber to narcotics. The groups are quite experienced in this regard.​

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The situation in central Myanmar, however, is different. There, the Bamar youths, who went to war against the Tatmadaw to restore democracy, are novices in terms of both warfare and fundraising. These guerrillas, collectively known as the People's Defence Force (PDF), have no bordering countries to conduct business with.

In the beginning, PDF's funds came from foreign supporters, and it was tough to bring the money home due to strict government monitoring. Many of these supporters refrained from making financial contributions, fearing that the government would uncover their identities. To avoid these problems and streamline transactions, the Bamar guerillas opened their very own bank.

In 2021-22, many citizens across the country left their government jobs to oppose the military coup. Accordingly, one of the objectives of the Bamar guerillas' bank was to bring these people under the guerilla administration's umbrella by paying them regular salaries and allowances for the cause.

Through such initiatives, the guerrillas are constantly trying to stay one step ahead of the junta in terms of technology.
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Guerilla bank working through 'guerilla technology'​

Many may remember that elected representatives against the military coup named their movement the "Spring Revolution" in February 2021. That very movement has slowly transformed into guerilla warfare. Since the bank was created to finance the war, the National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar named it Spring Development Bank (SDB). Launched in July last year, around 1,000 individuals opened accounts with the bank on its very first day. That number now stands at one lakh. Akin to the PDF, the SDB operates in a guerilla-like fashion. Run using technology related to blockchain and cryptocurrency, this is a fully fledged digital bank. And this is why the junta is facing difficulties blocking guerilla financing.

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Although SDB's primary goal is to finance the war of resistance, its second goal is to block finances to the military government.
— Altaf Parvez​

A group of guerillas with expertise in this field have been assigned to further develop the banking system, and supporting it is Tin Tun Naing, planning minister of the anti-junta government-in-exile. At the time of establishment, SDB also took permission from the exiled government's "central bank." Through this move, the guerillas wanted to show that they were under the umbrella of a formal government, so the customers wouldn't have to worry about being defrauded.

Although SDB's primary goal is to finance the war of resistance, its second goal is to block finances to the military government. This is being accomplished by obstructing the junta's tax collection system, influencing public opinion against the junta's financial products, and by trying to isolate it from the international currency exchange system.

Through these efforts, Myanmar's state assets have been frozen in many countries.

While the bank is primarily based on cryptocurrencies, account holders can also transact in at least 10 currencies, from the US dollar to the Thai baht, and funds can be transferred internationally as well.

SDB, facilitated by currency swaps in the beginning, said in 2023 that it would connect to the international SWIFT system of financial transactions this year, and even obtain its own debit card. The government-in-exile is able to trade assets of the country through this bank alone. A "customer" can open up an account with the bank by disclosing very basic information, and SDB has over 100 "relationship managers" across the world.

Last year, the NUG raised over $100 million, a large part of which was raised from the "bazaar" through SDB issuing treasury bonds. In November, the bank sold 10 percent of its stake and earned $10 million in just 10 days. The guerilla warfare in Myanmar has reached its current heights due to these very funds.
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Whose assets is NUG trading, and how?​

Many are surprised to know that Myanmar's government-in-exile is trading the country's assets despite having no offices in the capital or in the country's other major cities. The NUG came up with this idea when it began its official fundraising programme. This involved virtual selling of the real estate of leading military generals, including the head of the junta, Min Aung Hlaing. NUG officials, who have acquired the necessary documents, have given buyers the assurance that if the Spring Revolution succeeds, it will hand the properties over to them. The programme was implemented with great enthusiasm and many properties were thus sold. In the process, the guerilla administration earned $150 million.

An incentive for such a programme is that those who are buying these properties are supporting the guerrilla warfare for their own gains. Some mineral resources have already been sold in advance within the framework. But the guerrilla economy is not entirely virtual.

According to various sources, before the launch of Operation 1027 in October last year, the NUG managed to collect taxes from around 38 townships. However, since then, the number of townships from which NUG collects taxes has risen close to 50, according to sources, because of their operational successes.

There have been cases of alleged coercion taking place because of such measures. However, the NUG's financial capacity is still quite weak compared to that of the junta. It can now spend up to $5 million a month on the guerrillas for warfare purposes, but the junta's budget is many times larger. However, for the junta, the financial backing that the guerrillas are getting is a permanent challenge.

The NUG once called for a boycott of about 111 products and organisations of various companies run by the generals, which weakened the junta's financial strength. On December 12, news agency AP published the results of a survey and stated that various cloth manufacturing companies in Myanmar were producing only 60 percent of their capacity.

Meanwhile, the exchange rate reached about 2,100 kyats per US dollar, which was 1,300 kyats before the military coup.

The fall of the kyat's value and the dwindling income of state institutions, as well as the rising value of cryptocurrencies, is good news for the PDF guerrillas, as SDB is enjoying double the benefits.

Recently, as the Tatmadaw's grip on the bordering areas with Bangladesh, India, and Thailand is loosening, the junta's income from inter-country trade has gone down, and continues to go down. Meanwhile, the guerilla groups' income is rising through various types of legal and illegal businesses in these areas. Although the bulk of this money will go to non-Bamar guerrillas, the Bamar-PDF has friendly relations with them. The declining junta control over border trade is also good news for the NUG.
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The many faces of contributions​

Many may know that lotteries are very popular in Myanmar, and the government itself used to conduct lotteries. Banking on this, since the beginning of the guerilla war, the NUG has also been raising funds by issuing various types of lottery tickets. It is through this initiative, and the need to make lottery payments, that the idea of the digital bank occurred to NUG organisers. Although funds raised from lotteries may not be much, they still help finance the cause and, at the same time, hurt the junta's fundraising efforts. While Naypyidaw rulers are still outmatching the guerillas in terms of ammunition, the latter's ingenuity is chipping away at the junta's armour.

Many local artists are also donating money to the NUG by selling their artworks at open auctions through social media. In addition, in different countries of the world—especially Thailand, Singapore, Australia, and Japan—Myanmar expatriates are organising musical events and selling T-shirts and various cultural products to raise funds. To help in whatever way possible, many even sell homemade noodles at these events. Youngsters, meanwhile, are selling Myanmar-related mobile games to send money back home.

Since Myanmar's guerrilla groups are not listed as "terrorist" organisations in Europe and the US, supporters are facing no problems in raising public funds. The money is not only being used to buy ammunition from the illegal market, but also to run hospitals and educational institutions in the free zones, and even to entice government soldiers to switch sides. Besides the Bamars, the Karens, Kachins, and Rakhines are also raising a lot of money this way. All this is being done to help the guerillas, even if a tiny amount, and fight for the cause.

Translated from Bangla by Shoaib Ahmed Sayam.
Altaf Parvez is a researcher of history and has authored 'Burma: Jatigoto Shonghater Shaat Doshok.'
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[Saif]

Civil war in Myanmar: Bangladesh should beef up border security

Some 264 members of Myanmar’s border and security forces have entered the Bangladesh side illegally to escape fighting

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Civil war in Myanmar: Bangladesh should beef up border security​

Members of Myanmar's Border Guard Police take shelter at a Border Guard Bangladesh outpost in Ghumdum, Bandarban on February 5, 2024. PHOTO: COLLECTED

Since the Three Brotherhood Alliance—comprising Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Arakan Army (AA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)—launched Operation 1027 on October 27, 2023, and took the fight to the despotic ruling military junta, Myanmar is being torn apart by the two unstoppable forces.

While the military is leaving no stones unturned to suppress the resistance fighters—including indiscriminate shelling of occupied civilian townships, cities and villages, resulting in collective punishment and killings of unarmed civilians—the Three Brotherhood Alliance is making short work of routing the junta, capturing strategic regions and towns, including Chin State's Paletwa, northern Shan State and Rakhine State, bordering Bangladesh's Chattogram division in the northwest and the Bay of Bengal to the west.

Bangladesh is already feeling the heat of escalating clashes in the bordering regions, with the sound of gunfights keeping the locals in bordering areas awake at nights. In the last five days, fighting between the Arakan Army and the military junta flared once again. As a result, mortal shells are falling inside the Bangladeshi territory and has caused at least two deaths and multiple injuries. Some 264 members of Myanmar's border and security forces have entered the Bangladesh side illegally to escape fighting, according to Border Guard Bangladesh (as of 3:45 pm Tuesday). Some of them have bullet injuries.

Overall, with civil order rapidly deteriorating in Myanmar, things are not looking good for its three neighbours: China, India and Bangladesh.

The recent violent fighting in Rakhine has created panic among the Bangladeshi population living in the bordering areas in Bandarban's Naikhongchhari upazila. Residents of Tumbru village in the upazila's Ghumdum union are fleeing their homes to escape stray bullets. Academic activities in five primary schools and a madrasa had to be suspended amid the growing security concerns. Vehicular movement has been somewhat restricted and people are being advised to stay indoors.

Bangladesh has done the right thing by engaging with China and asking for its intervention to diffuse the tensions as a key party with influence with the ruling Myanmar junta. But it is high time the country beefed up surveillance and security in the bordering areas with Myanmar.

In response to the growing concerns after Myanmar's border and security force members infiltrated Bangladeshi territory, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal has said that security has been strengthened in the bordering areas with Myanmar and local police and coast guard have also been put on alert. Perhaps the government should also consider keeping the armed forces ready and the navy on heightened alert, should things go beyond control on the other side of the border, while also making sure that they are being cautious in their actions. The parliament is in session; now could be a good time to discuss this national security concern to raise consensus about the potential course of actions in the coming months, if not weeks.

For Bangladesh, the spillover effect of this conflict will be multipronged: national security, socioeconomic, and geopolitical. The border areas with Myanmar, even before the recent wave of conflict, have been vulnerable. The two countries share a 271-kilometre porous border, which has been used by refugees, resistance fighters and smugglers for their own means. In the face of escalations, where Myanmar border guards themselves are fleeing to Bangladesh, others might leverage this vulnerability to smuggle in drugs, arms, people, and even their causes.

The Rohingya camps are already tense with sporadic turf war among gangs. ARSA is reported to have been operating inside the Bangladeshi territory for some years now, adding to the seething tensions in the camps. Yaba pills being smuggled into Bangladesh from Myanmar, for both local sales and cross-border transshipment, is no new information for our intelligence agencies either. These non-state, rogue actors will be on the lookout to make the most of the tensions along the borders to make gains.

At the same time, as Myanmar military shells civilian towns and villages, displacing thousands, there is a high risk of them turning towards Bangladesh for shelter.

Bangladesh is already feeling the pinch of halted trade and commerce with Myanmar—for instance, due to a trade halt at Teknaf land port since November 14 last year, the Bangladesh government is losing about Tk 3 crore each day in revenue alone—while also having to provide for more than a million Rohingya refugees with foreign aid dwindling fast. On top of these existing challenges, a new influx of refugees from Myanmar would add to Bangladesh's economic burdens.

At the same time, the Bangladesh government should proceed with caution in sending back Myanmar's border and security force members and warning the border guards to demonstrate highest restraint, as it should not look like we are taking a side in this conflict of others. So far, Bangladesh has made the right moves, disarming the fleeing security personal and opening communication channels to discuss their return to Myanmar. However, their infiltration is evidence that border surveillance is still not strong in Bangladesh, and should more border police, army personnel or refugees enter Bangladesh, it would become difficult for the country to negotiate the return of so many to Myanmar.
At this point, Bangladesh could consider forming a joint coordination cell with representatives from home, foreign affairs and defence ministries, and national security and foreign policy experts to closely monitor the fast-evolving situation in Rakhine and recommend coordinated measures to protect our national interests.

One the one hand, we need to secure our borders, and on the other, we need to create enough diplomatic pressure on Myanmar military junta to pave the way for inclusive democracy in the war-ravaged country. Only through restoration of democracy and the rights of its people would Myanmar be able to heal from the wounds of decades past. Given China and India are also facing similar challenges, Bangladesh should initiate tripartite discussions on how best to help diffuse the tensions in Myanmar. If this tension is allowed to fester and spill over into other countries unchecked, it will create regional instability and major national security threats for all of Myanmar's neighbours.

While the government is acting calm—and it should be commended on how it has handled the delicate situation so far—it is time we also weighed all possibilities unfolding in the coming weeks and take concerted measures to tackle them.

Tasneem Tayeb is a columnist for The Daily Star. Her X handle is​

 

[Saif]

We must pursue multi-track diplomacy with Myanmar

In the present scenario, we have unfortunately failed in our diplomacy

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We must pursue multi-track diplomacy with Myanmar​

Since the very birth of the nation, Myanmar has been dependent on China. Therefore, Chinese influence in Myanmar will remain despite a junta existing. China shares the largest border with the country, is the biggest trading partner and has also been a partner for Myanmar in dire times. We must always remember this context.

Let's come down to the second aspect, which is India. What was India's relation? British India occupied places in Myanmar, in a sense. During that time, it was the Indians who were running Myanmar. Yangon was made by the British. So there were many Indians who lived in Myanmar and were later expelled from the country in the 1950s. The relationship between India and Myanmar has never been that great.

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Now let's talk about us. When Pakistan was formed in 1947, Rakhine wanted to come with Pakistan. And they had a leader, who was known as the "Rakhine Jinnah." But Pakistan then declined their request for existent technicalities.
The Tatmadaw's greatest fear is Bangladesh, and the reason is it's a Muslim majority country. They always use refererence of Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, that these were countries that did not have a Muslim majority but do now. Bangladesh is overpopulated and will make Myanmar a Muslim majority country. And therefore, the Rohingya are its agents. This is their psyche.

In the present scenario, we have unfortunately failed in our diplomacy. Not just at present, but even earlier. Even after liberation, we haven't done much. Now, what do we do?

In my opinion, by this year, Rakhine will fall. If you look at the map, the areas starting from Paletwa to Mrauk U have been taken over. If you've seen the news, you'll see that the Myanmar authority has demolished two bridges, so that the Arakan Army doesn't come to Sittwe. But as per my estimation, by the end of this year, the whole of Rakhine would be taken over.

So what should Bangladesh do? I think we cannot deal with this situation through a single stream. The biggest mistake in our diplomacy was probably the bilateral approach that we took with Myanmar. Tatmadaw is in a very bad shape because they kept 18,000 troops just for Naypyidaw and Section 144 has been announced. On top of that, they have ordered compulsory military service. So we should also consider a different track for diplomacy, and we must go and try to connect with the people who in future will be calling the shots, which are the NUG and the Arakan Army. Our foreign ministry knows how to best deal with that.

We need to prepare for backup diplomacy with some kind of show of force, otherwise you can't resolve this issue. And we have to work towards making the Arakan Army believe that the Rohingya are their people. They have mentioned in one of their communications that they recognise them as Arakan Muslims, not Rohingya.

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Brig Gen (retd) Dr M Sakhawat Hussain is former election commissioner of Bangladesh, and senior fellow at the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance (SIPG), North South University (NSU).​

 

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Fierce fighting is going on between Tatmadaw and Arakan Army.

 

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Global, regional crises: Experts bat for pragmatic foreign policy

Experts yesterday urged Bangladesh to take a pragmatic foreign policy to deal with the challenges, including the worsening situation in Myanmar, in a changing world

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Global, regional crises: Experts bat for pragmatic foreign policy​

Experts yesterday urged Bangladesh to take a pragmatic foreign policy to deal with the challenges, including the worsening situation in Myanmar, in a changing world.

Violent situation prevailing in the eastern part of Myanmar, especially in Rakhine and Chin states bordering Bangladesh, is a big reason to worry, they added.

They said the absence of political consensus in Bangladesh is causing detrimental impact on diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical fronts.

Speaking at a programme in the capital's Brac Centre Inn they also raised concerns about the lack of transparency regarding government negotiations, emphasising the absence of parliamentary discussions on crucial matters such as the Rohingya crisis.

Titled, "Rifts in the Global Order and the Rise of Multipolarity: Counterbalancing Strategies for Bangladesh," South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) organised the programme.

Dr Lailufar Yasmin, professor and chairperson of the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University, chaired the discussion.

Brig Gen (retd) M Shakhawat Hossain, former election commissioner and Senior Fellow at the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance of North South University; Ambassador M Humayun Kabir, president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI); and Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, professor of the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University, took part in the discussion.

Shakhawat said it is still unknown where the ongoing violence in Rakhine will stop. Along with that, the radical nationalism that is developing in India and Myanmar can also threaten the security of Bangladesh.

He also said that the US-led unipolar world order is still in place, which is beginning to crumble.

Shakhawat also said Bangladesh's foreign policy -- friendship to all and malice to none -- is not working right now.

'I am worried about what is happening in our neighbouring country Myanmar. I am especially worried about Myanmar's Chin and Rakhine states. There is instability. We don't know where it will end up," he said

He concluded with a call to action, urging Bangladesh to chart its own path.

Humayun Kabir said changes are now taking place at a rapid pace. He outlined three layers of transformation, starting with the erosion of global norms and order.

Reflecting on past consensus, he noted, "The idea was that the international community should respect sovereignty and the world should enjoy equity."

Addressing the concept of multi-polarity, he questioned, "China wants to become like the US. India wants to become like the US. So where is the multi-polarity everybody is talking about?"

He expressed concerns over diminishing guarantees of sovereignty and privacy, saying, "Sovereignty is no longer a guarantee… privacy is no longer a guarantee. Everybody is being spied on. Where is human sanctity, human dignity?"

Concluding with a note of caution, he urged vigilance in assessing regional developments, stating, "We have to be careful about how our region is evolving."

Dr Ahmed positioned Bangladesh favourably in this multipolar world, stating, "Bangladesh is better placed when it comes to multi-polarity."

He underscored the importance of professionalism and global engagement for Bangladesh's success.

Dr Ahmed emphasised the inevitability of multipolarity, stating, "In no way can we go back to unipolarity."

He urged Bangladesh to enhance its engagement with regional powers like India and China, asserting, "Bangladesh needs to engage with India and China on a much bigger scale."

Dr Lailufar Yasmin noted the emergence of a new assertive Bangladesh on the global stage, prompting the necessity to develop indigenous policies tailored to the country's population.

She advocated for interdisciplinary collaboration to foster the holistic development of Bengalis, highlighting the importance of a multifaceted approach to national growth.

She highlighted the evolving centre of gravity in international politics, noting, "In international politics, the centre of gravity is gradually shifting toward Asia."

She underscored Bangladesh's pivotal role as a gateway to Northeast India.

She said, "When you do not write your own story, another person will write it from their vantage point. That is why we have to write our own story."​