[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

[Saif]

How are guerillas in Myanmar raising their funds?

Since Myanmar's guerrilla groups are not listed as “terrorist” organisations in Europe and the US, supporters are facing no problems in raising public funds

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How are guerillas in Myanmar raising their funds?​

Before the launch of Operation 1027 in October last year, the NUG managed to collect taxes from around 38 townships. However, since then, the number of townships from which NUG collects taxes has risen close to 50. FILE PHOTO: AFP

While the Tatmadaw in Myanmar is waging war using state funds, one may wonder: from where is the opposition, the guerillas, getting so many resources? What's the origin of their funds? The surprising fact is that, in their efforts to raise money, the guerillas have successfully established their very own bank—an extremely rare feat in the history of guerilla warfare.

How the 'guerilla bank' started its journey

Guerillas have different names in different regions of Myanmar. In the seven marginal provinces, the guerilla groups comprising non-Bamar tribes mainly raise funds through local businesses and contributions. These businesses involve everything, from timber to narcotics. The groups are quite experienced in this regard.​

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The situation in central Myanmar, however, is different. There, the Bamar youths, who went to war against the Tatmadaw to restore democracy, are novices in terms of both warfare and fundraising. These guerrillas, collectively known as the People's Defence Force (PDF), have no bordering countries to conduct business with.

In the beginning, PDF's funds came from foreign supporters, and it was tough to bring the money home due to strict government monitoring. Many of these supporters refrained from making financial contributions, fearing that the government would uncover their identities. To avoid these problems and streamline transactions, the Bamar guerillas opened their very own bank.

In 2021-22, many citizens across the country left their government jobs to oppose the military coup. Accordingly, one of the objectives of the Bamar guerillas' bank was to bring these people under the guerilla administration's umbrella by paying them regular salaries and allowances for the cause.

Through such initiatives, the guerrillas are constantly trying to stay one step ahead of the junta in terms of technology.
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Guerilla bank working through 'guerilla technology'​

Many may remember that elected representatives against the military coup named their movement the "Spring Revolution" in February 2021. That very movement has slowly transformed into guerilla warfare. Since the bank was created to finance the war, the National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar named it Spring Development Bank (SDB). Launched in July last year, around 1,000 individuals opened accounts with the bank on its very first day. That number now stands at one lakh. Akin to the PDF, the SDB operates in a guerilla-like fashion. Run using technology related to blockchain and cryptocurrency, this is a fully fledged digital bank. And this is why the junta is facing difficulties blocking guerilla financing.

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Although SDB's primary goal is to finance the war of resistance, its second goal is to block finances to the military government.
— Altaf Parvez​

A group of guerillas with expertise in this field have been assigned to further develop the banking system, and supporting it is Tin Tun Naing, planning minister of the anti-junta government-in-exile. At the time of establishment, SDB also took permission from the exiled government's "central bank." Through this move, the guerillas wanted to show that they were under the umbrella of a formal government, so the customers wouldn't have to worry about being defrauded.

Although SDB's primary goal is to finance the war of resistance, its second goal is to block finances to the military government. This is being accomplished by obstructing the junta's tax collection system, influencing public opinion against the junta's financial products, and by trying to isolate it from the international currency exchange system.

Through these efforts, Myanmar's state assets have been frozen in many countries.

While the bank is primarily based on cryptocurrencies, account holders can also transact in at least 10 currencies, from the US dollar to the Thai baht, and funds can be transferred internationally as well.

SDB, facilitated by currency swaps in the beginning, said in 2023 that it would connect to the international SWIFT system of financial transactions this year, and even obtain its own debit card. The government-in-exile is able to trade assets of the country through this bank alone. A "customer" can open up an account with the bank by disclosing very basic information, and SDB has over 100 "relationship managers" across the world.

Last year, the NUG raised over $100 million, a large part of which was raised from the "bazaar" through SDB issuing treasury bonds. In November, the bank sold 10 percent of its stake and earned $10 million in just 10 days. The guerilla warfare in Myanmar has reached its current heights due to these very funds.
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Whose assets is NUG trading, and how?​

Many are surprised to know that Myanmar's government-in-exile is trading the country's assets despite having no offices in the capital or in the country's other major cities. The NUG came up with this idea when it began its official fundraising programme. This involved virtual selling of the real estate of leading military generals, including the head of the junta, Min Aung Hlaing. NUG officials, who have acquired the necessary documents, have given buyers the assurance that if the Spring Revolution succeeds, it will hand the properties over to them. The programme was implemented with great enthusiasm and many properties were thus sold. In the process, the guerilla administration earned $150 million.

An incentive for such a programme is that those who are buying these properties are supporting the guerrilla warfare for their own gains. Some mineral resources have already been sold in advance within the framework. But the guerrilla economy is not entirely virtual.

According to various sources, before the launch of Operation 1027 in October last year, the NUG managed to collect taxes from around 38 townships. However, since then, the number of townships from which NUG collects taxes has risen close to 50, according to sources, because of their operational successes.

There have been cases of alleged coercion taking place because of such measures. However, the NUG's financial capacity is still quite weak compared to that of the junta. It can now spend up to $5 million a month on the guerrillas for warfare purposes, but the junta's budget is many times larger. However, for the junta, the financial backing that the guerrillas are getting is a permanent challenge.

The NUG once called for a boycott of about 111 products and organisations of various companies run by the generals, which weakened the junta's financial strength. On December 12, news agency AP published the results of a survey and stated that various cloth manufacturing companies in Myanmar were producing only 60 percent of their capacity.

Meanwhile, the exchange rate reached about 2,100 kyats per US dollar, which was 1,300 kyats before the military coup.

The fall of the kyat's value and the dwindling income of state institutions, as well as the rising value of cryptocurrencies, is good news for the PDF guerrillas, as SDB is enjoying double the benefits.

Recently, as the Tatmadaw's grip on the bordering areas with Bangladesh, India, and Thailand is loosening, the junta's income from inter-country trade has gone down, and continues to go down. Meanwhile, the guerilla groups' income is rising through various types of legal and illegal businesses in these areas. Although the bulk of this money will go to non-Bamar guerrillas, the Bamar-PDF has friendly relations with them. The declining junta control over border trade is also good news for the NUG.
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The many faces of contributions​

Many may know that lotteries are very popular in Myanmar, and the government itself used to conduct lotteries. Banking on this, since the beginning of the guerilla war, the NUG has also been raising funds by issuing various types of lottery tickets. It is through this initiative, and the need to make lottery payments, that the idea of the digital bank occurred to NUG organisers. Although funds raised from lotteries may not be much, they still help finance the cause and, at the same time, hurt the junta's fundraising efforts. While Naypyidaw rulers are still outmatching the guerillas in terms of ammunition, the latter's ingenuity is chipping away at the junta's armour.

Many local artists are also donating money to the NUG by selling their artworks at open auctions through social media. In addition, in different countries of the world—especially Thailand, Singapore, Australia, and Japan—Myanmar expatriates are organising musical events and selling T-shirts and various cultural products to raise funds. To help in whatever way possible, many even sell homemade noodles at these events. Youngsters, meanwhile, are selling Myanmar-related mobile games to send money back home.

Since Myanmar's guerrilla groups are not listed as "terrorist" organisations in Europe and the US, supporters are facing no problems in raising public funds. The money is not only being used to buy ammunition from the illegal market, but also to run hospitals and educational institutions in the free zones, and even to entice government soldiers to switch sides. Besides the Bamars, the Karens, Kachins, and Rakhines are also raising a lot of money this way. All this is being done to help the guerillas, even if a tiny amount, and fight for the cause.

Translated from Bangla by Shoaib Ahmed Sayam.
Altaf Parvez is a researcher of history and has authored 'Burma: Jatigoto Shonghater Shaat Doshok.'
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[Saif]

Civil war in Myanmar: Bangladesh should beef up border security

Some 264 members of Myanmar’s border and security forces have entered the Bangladesh side illegally to escape fighting

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Civil war in Myanmar: Bangladesh should beef up border security​

Members of Myanmar's Border Guard Police take shelter at a Border Guard Bangladesh outpost in Ghumdum, Bandarban on February 5, 2024. PHOTO: COLLECTED

Since the Three Brotherhood Alliance—comprising Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Arakan Army (AA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)—launched Operation 1027 on October 27, 2023, and took the fight to the despotic ruling military junta, Myanmar is being torn apart by the two unstoppable forces.

While the military is leaving no stones unturned to suppress the resistance fighters—including indiscriminate shelling of occupied civilian townships, cities and villages, resulting in collective punishment and killings of unarmed civilians—the Three Brotherhood Alliance is making short work of routing the junta, capturing strategic regions and towns, including Chin State's Paletwa, northern Shan State and Rakhine State, bordering Bangladesh's Chattogram division in the northwest and the Bay of Bengal to the west.

Bangladesh is already feeling the heat of escalating clashes in the bordering regions, with the sound of gunfights keeping the locals in bordering areas awake at nights. In the last five days, fighting between the Arakan Army and the military junta flared once again. As a result, mortal shells are falling inside the Bangladeshi territory and has caused at least two deaths and multiple injuries. Some 264 members of Myanmar's border and security forces have entered the Bangladesh side illegally to escape fighting, according to Border Guard Bangladesh (as of 3:45 pm Tuesday). Some of them have bullet injuries.

Overall, with civil order rapidly deteriorating in Myanmar, things are not looking good for its three neighbours: China, India and Bangladesh.

The recent violent fighting in Rakhine has created panic among the Bangladeshi population living in the bordering areas in Bandarban's Naikhongchhari upazila. Residents of Tumbru village in the upazila's Ghumdum union are fleeing their homes to escape stray bullets. Academic activities in five primary schools and a madrasa had to be suspended amid the growing security concerns. Vehicular movement has been somewhat restricted and people are being advised to stay indoors.

Bangladesh has done the right thing by engaging with China and asking for its intervention to diffuse the tensions as a key party with influence with the ruling Myanmar junta. But it is high time the country beefed up surveillance and security in the bordering areas with Myanmar.

In response to the growing concerns after Myanmar's border and security force members infiltrated Bangladeshi territory, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal has said that security has been strengthened in the bordering areas with Myanmar and local police and coast guard have also been put on alert. Perhaps the government should also consider keeping the armed forces ready and the navy on heightened alert, should things go beyond control on the other side of the border, while also making sure that they are being cautious in their actions. The parliament is in session; now could be a good time to discuss this national security concern to raise consensus about the potential course of actions in the coming months, if not weeks.

For Bangladesh, the spillover effect of this conflict will be multipronged: national security, socioeconomic, and geopolitical. The border areas with Myanmar, even before the recent wave of conflict, have been vulnerable. The two countries share a 271-kilometre porous border, which has been used by refugees, resistance fighters and smugglers for their own means. In the face of escalations, where Myanmar border guards themselves are fleeing to Bangladesh, others might leverage this vulnerability to smuggle in drugs, arms, people, and even their causes.

The Rohingya camps are already tense with sporadic turf war among gangs. ARSA is reported to have been operating inside the Bangladeshi territory for some years now, adding to the seething tensions in the camps. Yaba pills being smuggled into Bangladesh from Myanmar, for both local sales and cross-border transshipment, is no new information for our intelligence agencies either. These non-state, rogue actors will be on the lookout to make the most of the tensions along the borders to make gains.

At the same time, as Myanmar military shells civilian towns and villages, displacing thousands, there is a high risk of them turning towards Bangladesh for shelter.

Bangladesh is already feeling the pinch of halted trade and commerce with Myanmar—for instance, due to a trade halt at Teknaf land port since November 14 last year, the Bangladesh government is losing about Tk 3 crore each day in revenue alone—while also having to provide for more than a million Rohingya refugees with foreign aid dwindling fast. On top of these existing challenges, a new influx of refugees from Myanmar would add to Bangladesh's economic burdens.

At the same time, the Bangladesh government should proceed with caution in sending back Myanmar's border and security force members and warning the border guards to demonstrate highest restraint, as it should not look like we are taking a side in this conflict of others. So far, Bangladesh has made the right moves, disarming the fleeing security personal and opening communication channels to discuss their return to Myanmar. However, their infiltration is evidence that border surveillance is still not strong in Bangladesh, and should more border police, army personnel or refugees enter Bangladesh, it would become difficult for the country to negotiate the return of so many to Myanmar.
At this point, Bangladesh could consider forming a joint coordination cell with representatives from home, foreign affairs and defence ministries, and national security and foreign policy experts to closely monitor the fast-evolving situation in Rakhine and recommend coordinated measures to protect our national interests.

One the one hand, we need to secure our borders, and on the other, we need to create enough diplomatic pressure on Myanmar military junta to pave the way for inclusive democracy in the war-ravaged country. Only through restoration of democracy and the rights of its people would Myanmar be able to heal from the wounds of decades past. Given China and India are also facing similar challenges, Bangladesh should initiate tripartite discussions on how best to help diffuse the tensions in Myanmar. If this tension is allowed to fester and spill over into other countries unchecked, it will create regional instability and major national security threats for all of Myanmar's neighbours.

While the government is acting calm—and it should be commended on how it has handled the delicate situation so far—it is time we also weighed all possibilities unfolding in the coming weeks and take concerted measures to tackle them.

Tasneem Tayeb is a columnist for The Daily Star. Her X handle is​

 

[Saif]

We must pursue multi-track diplomacy with Myanmar

In the present scenario, we have unfortunately failed in our diplomacy

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We must pursue multi-track diplomacy with Myanmar​

Since the very birth of the nation, Myanmar has been dependent on China. Therefore, Chinese influence in Myanmar will remain despite a junta existing. China shares the largest border with the country, is the biggest trading partner and has also been a partner for Myanmar in dire times. We must always remember this context.

Let's come down to the second aspect, which is India. What was India's relation? British India occupied places in Myanmar, in a sense. During that time, it was the Indians who were running Myanmar. Yangon was made by the British. So there were many Indians who lived in Myanmar and were later expelled from the country in the 1950s. The relationship between India and Myanmar has never been that great.

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Now let's talk about us. When Pakistan was formed in 1947, Rakhine wanted to come with Pakistan. And they had a leader, who was known as the "Rakhine Jinnah." But Pakistan then declined their request for existent technicalities.
The Tatmadaw's greatest fear is Bangladesh, and the reason is it's a Muslim majority country. They always use refererence of Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, that these were countries that did not have a Muslim majority but do now. Bangladesh is overpopulated and will make Myanmar a Muslim majority country. And therefore, the Rohingya are its agents. This is their psyche.

In the present scenario, we have unfortunately failed in our diplomacy. Not just at present, but even earlier. Even after liberation, we haven't done much. Now, what do we do?

In my opinion, by this year, Rakhine will fall. If you look at the map, the areas starting from Paletwa to Mrauk U have been taken over. If you've seen the news, you'll see that the Myanmar authority has demolished two bridges, so that the Arakan Army doesn't come to Sittwe. But as per my estimation, by the end of this year, the whole of Rakhine would be taken over.

So what should Bangladesh do? I think we cannot deal with this situation through a single stream. The biggest mistake in our diplomacy was probably the bilateral approach that we took with Myanmar. Tatmadaw is in a very bad shape because they kept 18,000 troops just for Naypyidaw and Section 144 has been announced. On top of that, they have ordered compulsory military service. So we should also consider a different track for diplomacy, and we must go and try to connect with the people who in future will be calling the shots, which are the NUG and the Arakan Army. Our foreign ministry knows how to best deal with that.

We need to prepare for backup diplomacy with some kind of show of force, otherwise you can't resolve this issue. And we have to work towards making the Arakan Army believe that the Rohingya are their people. They have mentioned in one of their communications that they recognise them as Arakan Muslims, not Rohingya.

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Brig Gen (retd) Dr M Sakhawat Hussain is former election commissioner of Bangladesh, and senior fellow at the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance (SIPG), North South University (NSU).​

 

[Saif]

Fierce fighting is going on between Tatmadaw and Arakan Army.

 

[Saif]

Global, regional crises: Experts bat for pragmatic foreign policy

Experts yesterday urged Bangladesh to take a pragmatic foreign policy to deal with the challenges, including the worsening situation in Myanmar, in a changing world

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Global, regional crises: Experts bat for pragmatic foreign policy​

Experts yesterday urged Bangladesh to take a pragmatic foreign policy to deal with the challenges, including the worsening situation in Myanmar, in a changing world.

Violent situation prevailing in the eastern part of Myanmar, especially in Rakhine and Chin states bordering Bangladesh, is a big reason to worry, they added.

They said the absence of political consensus in Bangladesh is causing detrimental impact on diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical fronts.

Speaking at a programme in the capital's Brac Centre Inn they also raised concerns about the lack of transparency regarding government negotiations, emphasising the absence of parliamentary discussions on crucial matters such as the Rohingya crisis.

Titled, "Rifts in the Global Order and the Rise of Multipolarity: Counterbalancing Strategies for Bangladesh," South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) organised the programme.

Dr Lailufar Yasmin, professor and chairperson of the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University, chaired the discussion.

Brig Gen (retd) M Shakhawat Hossain, former election commissioner and Senior Fellow at the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance of North South University; Ambassador M Humayun Kabir, president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI); and Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, professor of the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University, took part in the discussion.

Shakhawat said it is still unknown where the ongoing violence in Rakhine will stop. Along with that, the radical nationalism that is developing in India and Myanmar can also threaten the security of Bangladesh.

He also said that the US-led unipolar world order is still in place, which is beginning to crumble.

Shakhawat also said Bangladesh's foreign policy -- friendship to all and malice to none -- is not working right now.

'I am worried about what is happening in our neighbouring country Myanmar. I am especially worried about Myanmar's Chin and Rakhine states. There is instability. We don't know where it will end up," he said

He concluded with a call to action, urging Bangladesh to chart its own path.

Humayun Kabir said changes are now taking place at a rapid pace. He outlined three layers of transformation, starting with the erosion of global norms and order.

Reflecting on past consensus, he noted, "The idea was that the international community should respect sovereignty and the world should enjoy equity."

Addressing the concept of multi-polarity, he questioned, "China wants to become like the US. India wants to become like the US. So where is the multi-polarity everybody is talking about?"

He expressed concerns over diminishing guarantees of sovereignty and privacy, saying, "Sovereignty is no longer a guarantee… privacy is no longer a guarantee. Everybody is being spied on. Where is human sanctity, human dignity?"

Concluding with a note of caution, he urged vigilance in assessing regional developments, stating, "We have to be careful about how our region is evolving."

Dr Ahmed positioned Bangladesh favourably in this multipolar world, stating, "Bangladesh is better placed when it comes to multi-polarity."

He underscored the importance of professionalism and global engagement for Bangladesh's success.

Dr Ahmed emphasised the inevitability of multipolarity, stating, "In no way can we go back to unipolarity."

He urged Bangladesh to enhance its engagement with regional powers like India and China, asserting, "Bangladesh needs to engage with India and China on a much bigger scale."

Dr Lailufar Yasmin noted the emergence of a new assertive Bangladesh on the global stage, prompting the necessity to develop indigenous policies tailored to the country's population.

She advocated for interdisciplinary collaboration to foster the holistic development of Bengalis, highlighting the importance of a multifaceted approach to national growth.

She highlighted the evolving centre of gravity in international politics, noting, "In international politics, the centre of gravity is gradually shifting toward Asia."

She underscored Bangladesh's pivotal role as a gateway to Northeast India.

She said, "When you do not write your own story, another person will write it from their vantage point. That is why we have to write our own story."​

 

[Saif]

Rohingyas being forcibly recruited by Myanmar military: report

Community leaders have been pressured to compile lists of at least 50 men for each small village and at least 100 for each IDP camp and large village

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Rohingyas being forcibly recruited by Myanmar military: report​

Rohingyas offered citizenship cards, $41 monthly salary if they join the military

Photo: Collected

Myanmar's military is forcibly recruiting Rohingya men from villages and camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Rakhine State and it is feared that they will be used as human shields, said a report.

The report comes after the UN special rapporteur on the country said that Myanmar's ruling military junta has "doubled down" on civilian attacks while showing signs of becoming "increasingly desperate" by imposing military service.

Earlier this month, the military said it would enforce a law allowing it to call up all men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 to serve for at least two years, as it struggles to quell opposition to its 2021 coup, reports AFP.

"While wounded and increasingly desperate, the Myanmar military junta remains extremely dangerous," the UN's Tom Andrews said in a statement.

"As the junta forces young men and women into the military ranks, it has doubled down on its attacks on civilians using stockpiles of powerful weapons."

Activists and residents of Rakhine, meanwhile, said the military has conducted an initial drive to force Rohingya men in the war-torn state to join their ranks, which saw at least 400 Rohingya men from villages and IDP camps sent to military bases for two weeks of basic training.

"The training period is only two weeks. The junta's military can only use those who have been trained for just two weeks as human shields," Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, told The Irrawaddy, a Myanmar news outlet.

At least 400 Rohingya men have already been forcibly recruited from villages and IDP camps in Sittwe and Buthidaung townships to fight the Arakan Army (AA), residents of the townships and Rohingya activists say.

The recruitment drive follows the first-ever enforcement of Myanmar's conscription law on Feb. 10. Since then, the regime's military has pressured Rohingya community leaders and administrators in villages and IDP camps in three Rakhine townships -- Buthidaung, Maungdaw and Sittwe -- to compile lists of men between 18 and 35 years of age so that they can be conscripted to the military.

Community leaders and administrators have been pressured to compile lists of at least 50 men for each small village and at least 100 for each IDP camp and large village.

"What we were able to confirm on Wednesday (February 21) was that at least 300 people from IDP camps in Sittwe had already been drafted and are now in [military] training grounds," Nay San Lwin said.

Junta troops also arrested at least 100 men from four villages in Buthidaung Township on Feb 18 and 19 and they were sent to a nearby military base for basic military training, he added.

The conscription law only applies to Myanmar citizens. Rohingya people are not recognised as citizens of Myanmar.
Junta forces have told Rohingya men that if they serve in the military, each one will receive a sack of rice, a citizenship identity card and a monthly salary of 150,000 kyats (US$ 41), Rohingya residents of Rakhine State and activists say.

Sittwe, the state capital, has 13 IDP camps for about 100,000 Rohingya people who were displaced by ethnic and religious violence in the western state in 2012. The 300 Rohingya men already forcibly drafted to the junta's military from the IDP camps are just the first group. A list of 300 more, including their names, has already been drafted for the next group, local residents and activists say.

The Irrawaddy was unable to independently verify the numbers.

Rohingya people say they are anxious for those who have already been forcibly drafted as well as for themselves. Sooner or later, it will happen to them or a loved one, they say.

The first 300 Rohingya men forcibly conscripted from IDP camps are receiving "basic military training" inside the base of Artillery Battalion 373 in Sittwe.

The Irrawaddy was unable to independently verify the numbers.

Nay San Lwin is calling for rapid and more effective international action against the junta's atrocities and human rights violations. He called on neighboring countries and Asean to do more.

The junta's military is suffering major defeats in battles with the AA, one of three ethnic armies in the Brotherhood Alliance that spearheaded Operation 1027, which was launched in northern Shan State on Oct. 27 last year.
After humiliating the junta's military in northern Shan State, the AA did the same in Rakhine State.

On Nov. 13, it launched a large-scale offensive against regime targets across northern Rakhine State and in Paletwa Township in neighboring Chin State.

It has seized more than 170 junta bases and outposts since Nov 13, as well as six towns in Rakhine State and one in Chin State.

The junta's military is fighting an army that knows the terrain of Rakhine State better than it does and has public support.​

 

[Saif]

Brigadier General (rtd) Shakhawat Hossain expressed concern about the volatile situation in Chin and Rakhine state of Myanmar and its effect on national security of Bangladesh.

Global, regional crises: Experts bat for pragmatic foreign policy

Experts yesterday urged Bangladesh to take a pragmatic foreign policy to deal with the challenges, including the worsening situation in Myanmar, in a changing world

www.thedailystar.net

Global, regional crises: Experts bat for pragmatic foreign policy​

Experts yesterday urged Bangladesh to take a pragmatic foreign policy to deal with the challenges, including the worsening situation in Myanmar, in a changing world.

Violent situation prevailing in the eastern part of Myanmar, especially in Rakhine and Chin states bordering Bangladesh, is a big reason to worry, they added.​

​

They said the absence of political consensus in Bangladesh is causing detrimental impact on diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical fronts.

Speaking at a programme in the capital's Brac Centre Inn they also raised concerns about the lack of transparency regarding government negotiations, emphasising the absence of parliamentary discussions on crucial matters such as the Rohingya crisis.

Titled, "Rifts in the Global Order and the Rise of Multipolarity: Counterbalancing Strategies for Bangladesh," South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) organised the programme.

Dr Lailufar Yasmin, professor and chairperson of the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University, chaired the discussion.

Brig Gen (retd) M Shakhawat Hossain, former election commissioner and Senior Fellow at the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance of North South University; Ambassador M Humayun Kabir, president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI); and Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, professor of the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University, took part in the discussion.

Shakhawat said it is still unknown where the ongoing violence in Rakhine will stop. Along with that, the radical nationalism that is developing in India and Myanmar can also threaten the security of Bangladesh.

He also said that the US-led unipolar world order is still in place, which is beginning to crumble.

Shakhawat also said Bangladesh's foreign policy -- friendship to all and malice to none -- is not working right now.

'I am worried about what is happening in our neighbouring country Myanmar. I am especially worried about Myanmar's Chin and Rakhine states. There is instability. We don't know where it will end up," he said
He concluded with a call to action, urging Bangladesh to chart its own path.

Humayun Kabir said changes are now taking place at a rapid pace. He outlined three layers of transformation, starting with the erosion of global norms and order.

Reflecting on past consensus, he noted, "The idea was that the international community should respect sovereignty and the world should enjoy equity."

Addressing the concept of multi-polarity, he questioned, "China wants to become like the US. India wants to become like the US. So where is the multi-polarity everybody is talking about?"

He expressed concerns over diminishing guarantees of sovereignty and privacy, saying, "Sovereignty is no longer a guarantee… privacy is no longer a guarantee. Everybody is being spied on. Where is human sanctity, human dignity?"

Concluding with a note of caution, he urged vigilance in assessing regional developments, stating, "We have to be careful about how our region is evolving."

Dr Ahmed positioned Bangladesh favourably in this multipolar world, stating, "Bangladesh is better placed when it comes to multi-polarity."

He underscored the importance of professionalism and global engagement for Bangladesh's success.

Dr Ahmed emphasised the inevitability of multipolarity, stating, "In no way can we go back to unipolarity."

He urged Bangladesh to enhance its engagement with regional powers like India and China, asserting, "Bangladesh needs to engage with India and China on a much bigger scale."

Dr Lailufar Yasmin noted the emergence of a new assertive Bangladesh on the global stage, prompting the necessity to develop indigenous policies tailored to the country's population.

She advocated for interdisciplinary collaboration to foster the holistic development of Bengalis, highlighting the importance of a multifaceted approach to national growth.

She highlighted the evolving centre of gravity in international politics, noting, "In international politics, the centre of gravity is gradually shifting toward Asia."

She underscored Bangladesh's pivotal role as a gateway to Northeast India.

She said, "When you do not write your own story, another person will write it from their vantage point. That is why we have to write our own story."​

 

[Saif]

Sounds of firing return along Teknaf border

Sounds of heavy firing and shelling from Myanmar were heard daylong on Thursday in Teknaf of Cox’s Bazar, causing fresh tension among the local people...

www.newagebd.net

MYANMAR CONFLICT​

Sounds of firing return along Teknaf border​

Our Correspondent . Cox’s Bazar | Published: 00:14, Mar 01,2024

--File photo

Sounds of heavy firing and shelling from Myanmar were heard daylong on Thursday in Teknaf of Cox’s Bazar, causing fresh tension among the local people after days of break as fighting between the Myanmar army and the ethnic Arakan Army continued.

The residents of Teknaf said sounds of heavy firing and shelling were heard on the Hnila and Whykong borders, while airstrikes were also reported some two kilometres inside Myanmar territory.

A Myanmar national from Rakhine told New Age that firing and shelling continued in their area between the AA and Myanmar Army in the Bolibazar area.

Witnesses in Teknaf also saw Myanmar gunships using artillery.

Hnila union parishad chairman Rashed Mahmud Ali told New Age that they heard sounds of gunshots and explosions between the early hours and afternoon.

The Border Guard Bangladesh’s Teknaf battalion commanding officer, Lieutenant Colonel Mohiuddin Ahmed, said they had kept their forces on standby and were observing the situation closely.

Myanmar-based Arakan Army on Tuesday claimed to have taken complete control of the junta’s 9th Central Military Training School based in Minbya Township, Rakhine State, after 10 days of intense fighting, according to Thailand-based news portal Irrawaddy.

Most residents and junta administrators have reportedly fled Sittwe as AA forces advance on the state capital.​

 

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Protecting Rohingyas: Don’t repeat mistakes of the past

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has appealed to the international community not to repeat the failings of the past in protecting the Rohingya community in Myanmar’s Rakhine State which has spiralled further in violence since November.

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Protecting Rohingyas: Don’t repeat mistakes of the past​

UN rights chief urges int’l community

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has appealed to the international community not to repeat the failings of the past in protecting the Rohingya community in Myanmar's Rakhine State which has spiralled further in violence since November.

"After suffering decades of systematic discrimination, repression, forced displacement, and other serious human rights violations, the Rohingya today remain essentially imprisoned in villages and internment camps," he said while addressing the 55th session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva yesterday.

He said more than a million continue to languish in refugee camps in Bangladesh, and in Myanmar, they continue to be denied citizenship rights and free movement, and there is currently no prospect for safe and sustainable return.
Türk said since November, amid communications blackouts, sources indicated that nearly 200 people have died in Rakhine, of which at least 50 were Rohingya. Over 150,000 people fled their homes seeking safety – most Rohingya, however, are not allowed to flee.

"Just yesterday [Thursday], military naval vessels shelled a market in Rakhine's capital of Sittwe, reportedly killing at least 16 civilians and injuring over 80 others. This violence impacts every community, many of which are still reeling from last year's Cyclone Mocha," he said.

"In Rakhine State, we have heard reports that displaced Rohingya youth are being offered money, food, and even citizenship if they join the ranks of those who displaced them years ago. They are threatened with punishment if they refuse. And reports of forced recruitment, including child recruitment, have already proliferated among many warring parties.

"Military-imposed movement restrictions have almost completely disrupted the delivery of life-saving humanitarian aid. Homes have been burned down. Supply routes connecting Rakhine to other parts of Myanmar have been closed, creating an acute food shortage and significant price hikes. Most families are now surviving on one meal a day."

"Up to 5,000 Rohingya undertook perilous boat journeys last year in their search for safe haven. Hundreds of others have been detained as they seek to escape to other parts of Myanmar," Türk added.

He said his office has received multiple credible reports that hundreds of Rohingya fleeing violence are being prevented from entering Bangladesh. I appeal to all Member States to ensure international refugee protection to people fleeing persecution and conflict in Myanmar.

Four years ago, the International Court of Justice called on Myanmar to halt any activities that could violate provisions of the Genocide Convention. It ordered that the authorities protect Rohingya communities, preserve evidence of wrongdoing against them, and create conditions conducive to a safe, dignified, and voluntary return to their places of origin.

"Yet, the military continues to engage in the same callous, heavy-handed behaviour. This Council must act on these alarming warning signs."​

 

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Myanmar now ‘never-ending’ nightmare: UN

Three years of military rule in Myanmar have inflicted unbearable cruelty, leaving people trapped in an unending nightmare as the conflict spreads, the UN human...

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Myanmar now ‘never-ending’ nightmare: UN​

Blast in Myanmar market kills, wounds civilians​

Agence France-Presse . Geneva | Published: 00:44, Mar 02,2024

Three years of military rule in Myanmar have inflicted unbearable cruelty, leaving people trapped in an unending nightmare as the conflict spreads, the UN human rights chief said on Friday.

The junta is crushing all forms of dissent with total impunity, Volker Turk told the UN Human Rights Council, urging the United Nations’ top rights body and countries to focus on preventing further atrocities.

‘The human rights situation in Myanmar has morphed into a never-ending nightmare, away from the spotlight of global politics,’ Turk said.

‘Armed conflict has escalated and spread to nearly every corner of the country. Three years of military rule have inflicted — and continue to inflict — unbearable levels of suffering and cruelty on people in Myanmar.’

He said the junta was cracking down on any opposition with ‘total abuse of power’, while development in the southeast Asian nation was now in freefall.

Meanwhile, a blast hit a busy market in Myanmar’s conflict-torn Rakhine state on Thursday, killing and wounding civilians, the country’s junta and an ethnic rebel group said, blaming each other for the attack.

Clashes have rocked Myanmar’s western Rakhine state since the Arakan Army attacked security forces in November, ending a ceasefire that had largely held since the junta’s 2021 coup.

The AA is one of several armed ethnic minority groups in Myanmar’s border regions, many of whom have battled the military since independence from Britain in 1948 over autonomy and control of lucrative resources.

A junta naval vessel shelled the popular ‘Korea port’ market in state capital Sittwe early Thursday, the AA’s political wing said in a statement, killing 12 civilians and ‘critically’ wounding 31 others.

Fifty others suffered minor wounds, it said, accusing the junta of targeting the civilian population.

The junta said the blast was a result of ‘careless heavy artillery shooting’ by the AA, which had killed and injured a number of local people. It did not say how many.

The junta came to power in the February 2021 coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically-elected government, ending a 10-year experiment with democracy and plunging the country into bloody turmoil.

The junta is struggling to crush resistance to its rule by long-established ethnic rebel groups and newer pro-democracy People’s Defence Forces.

Turk told the council that credible sources had verified that over 4,603 civilians, including 659 women and 490 children, had been killed by the military since February 2021.

‘The actual toll is almost certainly much higher,’ he noted.

He said around 400 civilians, including 113 women, had been burnt — either alive or after being executed.

Turk said the violence had intensified since late October, when ethnic armed groups launched coordinated attacks, triggering punishing retaliation from the military.

He said that in January, 145 out of 232 verified civilian deaths were attributable to air strikes and artillery attacks as the military increasingly directs its jets on towns and cities.

‘This is horrific,’ said Turk.

‘For the last three years, people in Myanmar have sacrificed everything, and kept alive their aspirations for a better and safer future.

‘They need the entire international community to support them.’​

 

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Myanmar junta's access to arms, cash must be cut off, UN rights chief says

The international community must take "targeted action" to restrict the Myanmar junta's access to arms, jet fuel and foreign currency to prevent it from committing "atrocities" against its people, the UN human rights chief said on Friday. "I repeat my call to the international community to refocus

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Myanmar junta's access to arms, cash must be cut off, UN rights chief says​

REUTERS

Published :​

Mar 01, 2024 16:09

Updated :​

Mar 01, 2024 16:09

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Volker Turk, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, attends the high-level event commemorating the 75th Anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, December 11, 2023. Photo : Reuters

The international community must take "targeted action" to restrict the Myanmar junta's access to arms, jet fuel and foreign currency to prevent it from committing "atrocities" against its people, the UN human rights chief said on Friday.


"I repeat my call to the international community to refocus its energy on preventing atrocities against all people in the country, including the Rohingya," Volker Turk, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, told the Human Rights Council in Geneva, referring to the junta.

He said countries should "end the military's access to arms, jet fuel and foreign currency that it needs to sustain its campaign of repression against civilians."

Myanmar has been plunged in turmoil since the military seized power from an elected government in a 2021 coup.

Muslim Rohingya have faced persecution in Buddhist-majority Myanmar for decades and nearly a million of them live in crammed camps in Bangladesh's border district of Cox's Bazar. Most fled a military crackdown in 2017.

Myanmar's military rulers view the Rohingya as foreign interlopers and have denied them citizenship.

"After suffering decades of systematic discrimination, repression, massive forced displacement, and other serious human rights violations, the Rohingya today remain essentially imprisoned in villages and internment camps," Turk said.

Bangladesh said last month it will not allow any more Rohingya refugees from Myanmar to enter the country because supporting the huge numbers already there threatens its own security.

"My Office has received multiple credible reports that hundreds of Rohingya fleeing violence are being prevented from entering Bangladesh," Turk said.

"I appeal to all member states to ensure international refugee protection to people fleeing persecution and conflict in Myanmar."​

 

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Rohingyas are being forced into joining the army by Junta.

 

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Teknaf border shelling intensifies

Smoke and flames were observed at the border between Bangladesh and Myanmar after continuous loud explosions amid a violent conflict between the Myanmar military and rebels of the Arakan Army. Smoke was seen across the Hnila border in Cox's Bazar's Teknaf from 8am on Saturday. On the other side of

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Teknaf border shelling intensifies​

BDNEWS24.COM

Published :​

Mar 02, 2024 22:02

Updated :​

Mar 02, 2024 22:02

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Smoke and flames were observed at the border between Bangladesh and Myanmar after continuous loud explosions amid a violent conflict between the Myanmar military and rebels of the Arakan Army.

Smoke was seen across the Hnila border in Cox's Bazar's Teknaf from 8am on Saturday. On the other side of the border are Balibazar and Nagakura Para in Myanmar.

Tarek Mahmud Roni, the president of Hnila Adarsha Govt Primary School, believed that a village located between these areas appears to have been deliberately set ablaze.

Roni noted a shift in the conflict dynamics, with gunfire subsiding by Friday evening, only for explosions to intensify post-midnight into Saturday morning.

A series of around 40 to 50 explosions were reported between 7:30am and 8am, with fires raging until noon.

However, upon recalling the Rohingya crisis in 2017, Roni noted that the residents are terrified of the explosions and the smoke.

The Arakan Army clashed with the military in Myanmar's villages east of the Whykong and Hnila border, including Kumirhali, Naichdong, Kwangchigong, Shilkhali, and Nafpura.

The Border Guard Bangladesh and Coast Guard members have increased their patrols along the Naf River, covering a 54km stretch from Whykong in Teknaf Upazila to Shah Pori’s island at the border.

Residents of the border region reported intermittent shelling and mortar fire in some villages around Maungdaw in Myanmar’s Rakhine State from Friday evening to Saturday afternoon.

Rashed Mahmud Ali, chairman of Hnila Union, mentioned that fighting intensified in Rakhine State over two days, with mortar shells exploding across the Naf River.

Fear prevented thousands from going to their farms, he added.

Shah Jalal, the panel chairman of the Whykong union council, noted that the loud sound of mortar shells caused tremors in his area. Children were disturbed by frequent vibrations at night, and many cried out in fear.

The Arakan Army took control of the Totardia area on the Naf River bank across the Whykong Union two weeks ago, and now it is believed that the Myanmar security forces are trying to retake it.

Adnan Chowdhury, the Upazila executive officer or UNO, said the BGB and the Coast Guard have strengthened patrols along the Myanmar border and residents have been advised to remain vigilant amid the escalating conflict in Rakhine state.

Residents living on the Naikhongchhari border in Bandarban and the Ukhia border in Cox’s Bazar did not hear any gunfire last three days.

Lt Col Mohiuddin Ahmed, leading the Teknaf 2 Battalion of the BGB, said they are closely monitoring the situation in Rakhine and the BGB is on high alert to prevent Rohingya infiltration.​

 

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Arakan Army inflicts significant damage upon Myanmar Navy.

 

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'We need to demonstrate diplomatic agility and manoeuvring skills'

What Bangladesh can do regarding the ongoing crisis in Myanmar

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Civil War in Myanmar​

'We need to demonstrate diplomatic agility and manoeuvring skills'​

Maj Gen (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman, president of the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), suggests what Bangladesh can do regarding the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, in an exclusive interview with Naimul Alam Alvi of The Daily Star.

For Bangladesh, what are the implications of the current situation in Myanmar?​

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The current situation in Myanmar is in a state of flux. The Myanmar military junta is rapidly losing control of areas, including areas of interest to Bangladesh—Rakhine and Chin states. The Arakan Army's significant gains suggest they will soon control large swathes. They have already captured Pauktaw, Minbya, and Paletwa. Not only are civilians fleeing these areas, but military soldiers and paramilitary forces are also retreating. Some of them are crossing into Bangladesh, creating a tense and volatile situation. The rapidly changing situation makes it difficult for Bangladesh to receive complete information on the ground, posing a major security threat.

What are the specific challenges?

The first challenge is the insecure border. There have been airspace violations and mortar shells from Myanmar have landed in Bangladesh, damaging settlements; two civilians have already been killed and several villagers have been injured. This is disrupting life and security in Bangladesh.

Secondly, the influx of fleeing Myanmar soldiers poses a major threat. There is information that civilians are gathering on the other side of the border, preparing to enter Bangladesh, including over 400 members of the Chakma ethnic group. We can also expect that others may follow—even the remaining Rohingya who are in Myanmar may also try to enter Bangladesh.

Can the unrest there spill over and create unrest inside our border?

Instability is inherently contagious. When one region experiences turmoil, it can naturally spread to neighbouring areas. This concern is heightened due to the presence of shared ethnicities on both sides of the border. An attack on one group there could easily invite sympathy and even cause unrest among their kin on this side. Therefore, the potential for ethnic tensions spilling over is a significant cause for concern and something to be analysed.


Is there a possibility of unrest increasing in the Rohingya refugee camps?

Of course, the possibility exists. The Rohingya camps have already faced various security issues and disruptions over several years. Internal conflicts and violence between groups within the camps are still going on. If the instability on the other side intensifies, it will undoubtedly affect the Rohingya population here, further complicating an already complex situation.

The prospects for repatriation, already bleak, have dimmed further due to the escalating crisis in Myanmar. Discussions, effective arrangements, and sustained action seem nearly impossible in the current turmoil. The situation worsens daily.

Bangladesh recently summoned the Myanmar ambassador to express its displeasure. However, given the Myanmar government's precarious control, how effective is such an act? What can Bangladesh realistically achieve?

Traditional diplomatic methods might struggle in this fluid conflict zone. Summoning the ambassador and issuing a protest note is standard diplomatic practice, but this is no ordinary situation. It's a dynamic conflict demanding a robust approach. We may need to explore avenues of understanding and communication with various actors involved.

Major international players like India, China, the US, other Western powers, and Russia are directly involved due to their diverse interests. Communicating solely with Myanmar won't be entirely effective. We must engage in broader diplomatic manoeuvring, leveraging our existing relationships.

I fear crucial time has been lost, but establishing new communication channels is imperative. We need to demonstrate the diplomatic agility and manoeuvring skills required in such complex conflict situations. Clinging to routine diplomacy will leave us overtaken by events. We cannot repeat our inactiveness during the Rohingya crisis, when we'd started our diplomacy after the influx. We must be proactive, anticipating developments and taking steps to prevent the situation from spiralling out of control.


What additional measures can we take?

Beyond diplomacy, we must prioritise physical security. This requires fortifying and strengthening our borders, and closing any loopholes vulnerable to infiltration or security breaches. We need comprehensive armed arrangements to effectively respond to potential threats across the entire border region. These are immediate crisis management needs.

Furthermore, engaging with regional powers is vital. Understanding their perspectives on the security situation and aligning our own needs with theirs is crucial. This multipronged approach requires a comprehensive understanding of how to effectively secure our borders.

You mentioned major global players being involved. Can you elaborate on their motivations and specific interests in Myanmar?

Myanmar's geostrategic significance has long attracted major powers seeking spheres of influence, driven by national interests, security concerns, and strategic aspirations. The ongoing crisis has reignited their involvement, with each aiming to maintain or expand their reach.

For example, India has a significant presence in our bordering state Rakhine. There is the Kaladan Multi-Modal Highway, which enters India's northeast from Sittwe port by land and river. This is a multi-billion dollar project for India, and India's interests are directly involved in it.

We also know that Rakhine is a major gateway to the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. And for this reason, all the major powers have a special interest in this region. The deep sea port that has been built in Kyaukpyu is a major Chinese port. It does not only serve as a deep sea port but is also a major energy hub—transporting oil and gas directly to China's Yunnan province. This strategic location aligns with their national and energy interests. So China has significant interest in Rakhine.

There are also several special economic zones being set up in Rakhine, where Russia and China plan to establish industrial zones, drawing Russia into the mix.

In the current geopolitical reality, with global strategic competition being high, wherever China has an interest, the US gets involved to counter it. So that's why the US has a big interest here too. This is evident in their close monitoring of Myanmar and the recent Burma Act legislation, signalling their readiness for action.

What strategy do you propose to deal with the current crisis?

Our approach must be exceptionally dynamic and innovative. We need unconventional solutions alongside traditional diplomacy, engaging with multiple actors. Maintaining active communication with Asean, given Myanmar's membership, is crucial. Additionally, establishing communication with the major global players I have mentioned, while considering their interests alongside our own, is essential. We must also reevaluate the timing of formally engaging with non-state actors. Time is of the essence. Delays in effective diplomacy could lead to even more significant challenges.

This is a crisis, and like any crisis, it demands more than a routine 9-to-5 office. Establishing a dedicated crisis task force is paramount. This team, comprising representatives from various ministries and government agencies (foreign affairs, home affairs, defence, intelligence), humanitarian organisations and relevant stakeholders, should operate 24/7. Their mandate would be to constantly monitor the situation, analyse developments, and propose solutions for political decision-making across various angles: security, diplomacy, conflict resolution, humanitarian aid, and resource management.

It's crucial to remember that this is not just a security concern; it's a multifaceted crisis with diverse dimensions requiring a holistic approach. Addressing emerging challenges swiftly and effectively necessitates a collaborative effort beyond the capabilities of any single ministry.

Traditional diplomatic methods of summoning ambassadors or issuing protests are inadequate for this dynamic situation. We need a fresh, analytical approach, tailoring responses to emerging threats. Proactive measures are essential; there is no time to lose.​