🇧🇩 Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh (29 Viewers)

[Saif]

Panic spreads to new areas amid fighting in Myanmar

Panic gripped the residents of Shah Porir Dwip and Saint Martin in Teknaf amid sound of gunfights and shelling from heavy weapons as fighting between...

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Panic spreads to new areas amid fighting in Myanmar​

Staff Correspondent | Published: 00:36, Feb 17,2024

Panic gripped the residents of Shah Porir Dwip and Saint Martin in Teknaf amid sound of gunfights and shelling from heavy weapons as fighting between Myanmar junta forces and ethnic rebel group Arakan Army continued in Rakhine on Friday.

Residents said that they saw Myanmar helicopters and fighter jets hovering over Rakhine amid the fighting, which left them concerned about their safety.

The firing in Myanmar along the border of the two areas started on Thursday after Bangladesh deported 330 Myanmar soldiers and civilians who fled to the country between February 4 and 8, fleeing the conflict in Rakhine.
Bangladesh authorities ferried the Myanmar escapees to the naval ship of the country anchored in the deep sea with a private ship and Bangladesh Coast Guard tugboat after verification of their identities by the two countries.
Sabrang union parishad member Abdus Salam said after the shelling in Myanmar, many locals appeared worried.

However, Teknaf upazila nirbahi officer Mohammad Adnan Chowdhury said that no artillery shells were dropped on Bangladesh territory on Friday.

Md Jakaria Alfaj, a resident at Shah Porir Dwip, said that he woke up in the morning hearing the sound of firing inside Myanmar.

He said that he saw helicopters and planes in the morning and the afternoon.

He added that such a sound of shelling or firing is not very familiar in the locality, so it left residents panicking.
Meanwhile, residents of Whykong said they also heard a barrage of firing along the border at about 9:15pm.

Home minister Asaduzzaman Khan said at a programme in Chattogram on Friday that no one from Myanmar carrying firearms would be allowed anymore, confirming that some Myanmar rebels had also entered Bangladesh.
The heavily armed BGB and Coast Guard have patrolled the bordering Naf River and adjacent areas since Monday.

At the same time, the local administration has suspended the movement of civilian ships between Teknaf and Saint Martin since February 10.​

 

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We must pursue multi-track diplomacy with Myanmar

In the present scenario, we have unfortunately failed in our diplomacy

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We must pursue multi-track diplomacy with Myanmar​

Since the very birth of the nation, Myanmar has been dependent on China. Therefore, Chinese influence in Myanmar will remain despite a junta existing. China shares the largest border with the country, is the biggest trading partner and has also been a partner for Myanmar in dire times. We must always remember this context.

Let's come down to the second aspect, which is India. What was India's relation? British India occupied places in Myanmar, in a sense. During that time, it was the Indians who were running Myanmar. Yangon was made by the British. So there were many Indians who lived in Myanmar and were later expelled from the country in the 1950s. The relationship between India and Myanmar has never been that great.

Now let's talk about us. When Pakistan was formed in 1947, Rakhine wanted to come with Pakistan. And they had a leader, who was known as the "Rakhine Jinnah." But Pakistan then declined their request for existent technicalities.

The Tatmadaw's greatest fear is Bangladesh, and the reason is it's a Muslim majority country. They always use refererence of Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, that these were countries that did not have a Muslim majority but do now. Bangladesh is overpopulated and will make Myanmar a Muslim majority country. And therefore, the Rohingya are its agents. This is their psyche.

In the present scenario, we have unfortunately failed in our diplomacy. Not just at present, but even earlier. Even after liberation, we haven't done much. Now, what do we do?

In my opinion, by this year, Rakhine will fall. If you look at the map, the areas starting from Paletwa to Mrauk U have been taken over. If you've seen the news, you'll see that the Myanmar authority has demolished two bridges, so that the Arakan Army doesn't come to Sittwe. But as per my estimation, by the end of this year, the whole of Rakhine would be taken over.

So what should Bangladesh do? I think we cannot deal with this situation through a single stream. The biggest mistake in our diplomacy was probably the bilateral approach that we took with Myanmar. Tatmadaw is in a very bad shape because they kept 18,000 troops just for Naypyidaw and Section 144 has been announced. On top of that, they have ordered compulsory military service. So we should also consider a different track for diplomacy, and we must go and try to connect with the people who in future will be calling the shots, which are the NUG and the Arakan Army. Our foreign ministry knows how to best deal with that.

We need to prepare for backup diplomacy with some kind of show of force, otherwise you can't resolve this issue. And we have to work towards making the Arakan Army believe that the Rohingya are their people. They have mentioned in one of their communications that they recognise them as Arakan Muslims, not Rohingya.​

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Brig Gen (retd) Dr M Sakhawat Hussain is former election commissioner of Bangladesh, and senior fellow at the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance (SIPG), North South University (NSU).​

 

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Has our policy towards Myanmar failed?

There should have been a multilayered approach to the Rohingya issue from the beginning

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Has our policy towards Myanmar failed?​

There should have been a multilayered approach to the Rohingya issue from the beginning. Since there are varied interests in Myanmar of different stakeholders—the West, China, and India— when it comes to investment and economic prospects, there is naturally a conflict of interest. So, it is not wise to depend solely on any of those actors for a solution. This is why we needed to bring up the repatriation issue strongly in multilateral forums.

We can see that the problem with repatriation was created right at the beginning when we introduced the term FDMN (forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals) instead of using the term refugee. How did we come up with this term, and why? Had we used the term refugee, we could have cited the UN Refugee Convention, even if we are not a signatory. We are a signatory state to the Global Compact of Refugees, and it falls upon all signatories to resolve the refugee crisis. We could have brought it to the UN General Assembly in a different way; we could have mentioned the R2P (responsibility to protect) principle. A multilayered approach would have allowed us to offset the conflicting interests we are now having to navigate.​

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The countries we are looking to for solutions have economic interests in the region of Rakhine—such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, Trilateral Highway Project, investment in Sittwe Port, and the oil and gas pipeline project. This is why we cannot really be certain whether they are serious about the Rohingya repatriation or if we are becoming pawns in their game.

Instead of saying whether our foreign policy failed, I would say that in order for it to be successful, particularly for the Rohingya repatriation, we needed to effectively create the intellectual and institutional space and capacity to pursue the issue. Instead, we made things worse by not using the term "refugee."

In the current context, one might argue that a window of opportunity has been created for repatriation. With the central authority in a major crisis, and the Arakan Army and the Northern Alliance needing international recognition, we are in a good bargaining place. It is likely that administrative control might go to the Arakan Army in the near future, which means we need to keep the door open. They said in an interview that the Arakan Army is ready to accept Rohingya Muslims as citizens, though they did not use the word Rohingya. Whether or not we will seize this opportunity will depend on whether our foreign ministry is able to exercise its autonomy, or is trapped in the interests of others. We are still solely dealing with the central authority, but now we need to maintain neutrality and create space with other groups.

When it comes to crisis management in foreign policy, there should be a consultation group with experts and independent thinkers to guide the foreign ministry, if we want to ensure our autonomy. The ministry should create a group of consultants who can brief it about the complex terrain in Myanmar and give suggestions. We must remember that in this current geopolitical climate, we need to strengthen our intellectual capacity as much as our intuitional capacity when it comes to diplomacy.​

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Dr Mohammad Tanzimuddin Khan is professor at the Department of International Relations in Dhaka University.​

 

[Saif]

Our understanding about Myanmar is limited

Neither the Rohingya issue nor the recent developments happened overnight; they have a history.

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Our understanding about Myanmar is limited​

In my opinion, our understanding of the world, including our neighbours, is limited. We only focus inward. This limits our knowledge of international and regional dynamics. Our diplomatic engagement often remains transactional, lacking nuance and depth. Consequently, facing crises like the one in Myanmar, we find ourselves hesitant and ill-prepared.

Neither the Rohingya issue nor the recent developments happened overnight; they have a history.

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One crucial layer of Myanmar's problems has persisted since its independence: the ethnic/racial dilemma. Myanmar opted for a centralised government instead of a federal structure, which fuelled tensions and violent conflicts across the nation. This explains the ongoing insurgencies within the country. Myanmar has been experiencing a low-intensity insurgency since 1948.

This coexisted with a degree of tacit acceptance and established a modus operandi, with the government recognising the presence of various armed groups in different areas. But now, the dynamic has changed.

Following the democratic process initiated in 2010-11, aspirations for growth and prosperity became widespread, particularly among the Bamars. During my visits to Myanmar around 2015-2016, and in 2020, I saw a clear increase in affluence. This new generation developed aspirations for further economic advancement.

Naturally, the military takeover in 2021 triggered widespread protests demanding participation, democracy, and respect for rights. These demonstrations gave rise to the National Unity Government (NUG) and the People's Defence Force (PDF). Many PDF members received training from existing ethnic armed groups, further complicating the situation. This culminated in a joint military campaign launched by different ethnic groups in October last year, exerting significant pressure on the Myanmar military.

Has Bangladesh thoroughly researched and analysed the Myanmar situation? To my knowledge, Bangladesh lacks dedicated institutions for in-depth research on such critical international and sub-regional events, unlike other countries. This lack of research culture hinders our ability to fully comprehend complex geopolitical events.

Furthermore, neglecting the influence of sub-national entities like the Arakan government and the historic connections of ethnic groups now residing in both Myanmar and Bangladesh creates a blind spot in our understanding of the conflict's deeper roots and potential spillover effects on the country's security.

Our current approach of "institutional diplomacy" relies solely on government-to-government and state-to-state communication, potentially limiting our understanding and ability to respond effectively. The current situation involves three distinct levels of complexity: national (Naypyidaw), regional (Arakan and such), and the Rohingya issue. Bangladesh cannot count on simply sending a protest note to Naypyidaw to address the issue when its central government itself holds little control over different regions of Myanmar.

The recent increase in armed group activities and civilian and non-civilian movements across our borders cannot be solved merely through a military approach. During conflicts around the borders of Vietnam-Laos, Laos-Cambodia, or Pakistan-Afghanistan, there were cross-border movements, and such movements are largely inevitable.

Therefore, it's crucial for us to take initiatives to facilitate a ceasefire in Myanmar. Regardless of the specific form or outcome, achieving a ceasefire might mitigate the emerging complexities within Bangladesh. While I acknowledge our limitations in addressing this issue alone, I believe we should collaborate with those currently possessing the necessary capacity. China's involvement with the Shan and Kachin states demonstrates a potential precedent. Perhaps similar engagement with the Arakan Army, leveraging China's unique influence, could facilitate a ceasefire. This would be key to overcoming the immediate crisis. Discussions on Rohingya repatriation and other long-term solutions can then follow.

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M Humayun Kabir, a former diplomat, is president of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI).

 

[Saif]

Bullet-injured Rohingya woman, family in dinghy

An injured Rohingya woman with four others in a dinghy on Saturday sought refuge to the Border Guard Bangladesh at Shah Porir Dwip in Teknaf...

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Bullet-injured Rohingya woman, family in dinghy​

They seek refuge at Shah Porir Dwip​

Staff Correspondent | Published: 00:32, Feb 18,2024

An injured Rohingya woman with four others in a dinghy on Saturday sought refuge to the Border Guard Bangladesh at Shah Porir Dwip in Teknaf amid continued firing and shelling in bordering Rakhine, Myanmar, for the last three days.

Details of identities of the Rohingya family could not be known but witnesses said that the woman was given primary treatment in Rakhine and was advised to take better treatment.

Apart from the injured woman, the dinghy had in it the boatman and three others, possibly her family members.
The Border Guard Bangladesh personnel stopped them from getting to the jetty.

No comment from the BGB was available until 8:30pm.

Shah Porir Dwip union parishad member Abdus Salam said that he saw the boat with its occupants was adrift until 8:00pm on Saturday.

He said the boat was spotted at about 5:00pm.

Local residents said that the BGB prevented them from talking with the Rohingyas.

Panic gripped the residents of Shah Porir Dwip and Saint Martin’s islands in Teknaf upazila amid the sound of gunfights and shelling from heavy weapons as fights between Myanmar junta forces and ethnic rebel group Arakan Army raged on in neighbouring Rakhine.

The firing in Myanmar along the border of the two areas started on Thursday after Bangladesh deported 330 Myanmar soldiers and civilians who fled conflicts in Rakhine in February 4–8.

Home minister Asaduzzaman Khan said at a programme in Chattogram on Friday that no one from Myanmar carrying firearms would be allowed anymore, confirming that some Myanmar rebels had also entered Bangladesh.

The heavily armed BGB and Coast Guard have been patrolling the bordering Naf River and adjacent areas since February 12.

The local administration has suspended the movement of civilian ships between Teknaf and Saint Martin’s since February 10.
During attending a programme on the day of sending back 330 Myanmar troops and civilians on a ship in Cox’s Bazar, BGB director general Major General Mohammad Ashrafuzzaman Siddiqui on Thursday stressed that no more influx would be allowed.

At least two people were killed due to an explosion of an artillery shell on Naikyangchhari border in Bandarban and two other bodies were found killed along Cox’s Bazar border in February 4–12.

Referring to the Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Arakan Army, Thailand-based Irrawaddy news portal reported on Friday that the war in the Rakhine state is intensifying as the Arakan Army increases its attacks on junta targets in three coastal townships, namely Maungdaw, Ramree and Rathedaung.

It reported that the junta’s military is attempting to defend its remaining bases in the three townships by bombing around them in a campaign coordinating by its army, navy and air force.

The Arakan Army, however, said that it will continue to attack the junta targets until the troops inside them surrender.
The junta military continues to bomb Ramree town from land, sea and air, turning it into the most bombed town in Myanmar’s westernmost state, said the Arakan Army.
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Myanmar crisis: Opposition deputy leader fears regional instability

The Deputy Leader of the Opposition and a Jatiyo Party MP Anisul Islam Mahmud today in parliament expressed fear that the ongoing conflict in Myanmar may disrupt the security of Bangladesh and India

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Myanmar crisis: Opposition deputy leader fears regional instability​

Anisul Islam Mahmud

The Deputy Leader of the Opposition and a Jatiyo Party MP Anisul Islam Mahmud today in parliament expressed fear that the ongoing conflict in Myanmar may disrupt the security of Bangladesh and India.

He suggested that a joint initiative should be taken with India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China and the United States to address the situation.

Pointing to the recent remarks of US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu, the JP MP said the situation in Myanmar might heighten security risks for Bangladesh and neighbouring regions.

Last week, Donal Lu warned both Dhaka and Delhi that the security situation born out of the Rohingya refugee crisis and the general instability in Myanmar will worsen and continue to have implications for its neighbours.

Anisul said Bangladesh needs to take more precautionary steps to deal with the war-like situation in Rakhine.

He said benefactors of the conflict can try to take advantage of the situation by drawing Bangladesh into the conflict.

"So, I think India, US, Myanmar and China should take a joint initiative to look into this matter," Anisul said.​

 

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Bangladesh needs to view Rohingya issue from Asean's point of view

Says former foreign minister of Singapore George Yeo

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Bangladesh needs to view Rohingya issue from Asean's point of view​

Says former foreign minister of Singapore George Yeo

Photo: Collected

Former foreign minister of Singapore George Yeo has said if Bangladesh wants closer cooperation with the Asean, such as becoming a sectoral dialogue partner, it has to view the Rohingya issue from the regional bloc's point of view.

"You need to incorporate the view of Asean, not dismissing the importance of the Rohingya issue but also not allowing it to become such a dominating issue," he said addressing a discussion here in the city.

Cosmos Foundation, the philanthropic arm of the Cosmos Group, hosted the discussion as part of its distinguished speaker series, titled "Bangladesh and Asean in a Multipolar World" at Hotel Renaissance in the capital's Gulshan.

Terming the Rohingya crisis a human tragedy, the former Singaporean foreign minister in his keynote address said, "There is no simple solution. Because the problems are rooted in history and the solutions could be rooted in history."

Responding to a question, he said Asean didn't condemn the Rohingya genocide when it happened as it considers it an internal political problem.

"Asean has tried to separate the humanitarian issue in Rakhine estate from a political issue," he said, adding that Asean doesn't interfere in the affairs of its member countries.

Among the Asean members, the Muslim countries Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, also Singapore are sympathetic towards the Rohingya people. Others don't have the same view. Laos has shared traditional relations with Myanmar, he said.

In Myanmar, the Rohingya is a side issue but in Bangladesh it is a central issue, he continued.

Focusing on the development of Bangladesh, George Yeo highly praised the recent progress of the country in different economic and social indexes.

Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Cosmos Foundation president, scholar-diplomat, and former Foreign Affairs Advisor of caretaker government, chaired and conducted the discussion, while Enayetullah Khan, chairman of the Cosmos Foundation, delivered the welcoming remarks.

Iftekhar said the discussion on ASEAN and Bangladesh is a timely one and the deliberations at this time are apt for two broad reasons.

Dr Chowdhury said the second reason is the burgeoning turmoil in Myanmar, an ASEAN member, which is now threatening to spill into Bangladesh as well, with protagonists from contending sides looking to Bangladesh as a safe haven.

"We understand the ASEAN principle of non-interference in another member-state's affairs. We also note, however, it contributes to the failure to rein in the junta leadership, and the ineffectiveness of the Five-point Consensus. Very applicable to the junta is that dire dictum of Tacitus: 'They create a desolation and call it peace,'" he said.

Citing that ASEAN is a political institution, he said there is a huge risk that its inability to resolve the Myanmar crisis will take a toll, not only on its credibility, but on its unity.

Enayetullah Khan, also editor-in-chief of UNB, in his welcoming remarks expressed deep gratitude to George Yeo despite his pressing schedule.

Talking about Bangladesh-Singapore relations, he said, "We are happy that our leaders Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong have such a close rapport. We are looking forward to the day that rapport can be translated into a mutually rewarding free trade agreement."

Former ambassador Farooq Sobhan, former Principal Secretary Md Nojibur Rahman, former Foreign Secretary Touhid Hossain, Secretary at Foreign Ministry Shabbir Ahmad Chowdhury, Dhaka University Professor Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir and Cosmos Group Deputy Managing Director Masud Khan, among others, took part in the discussion during the question-answer session.​

 

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Myanmar Conflict: It may worsen security risks for Bangladesh

The situation in Myanmar isn’t improving and this might heighten security risks for Bangladesh and neighboring regions, said US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu.

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Myanmar Conflict: It may worsen security risks for Bangladesh​

Says Donald Lu

The situation in Myanmar isn't improving and this might heighten security risks for Bangladesh and neighboring regions, said US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu.

He warned both Dhaka and Delhi that the security situation born out of the Rohingya refugee crisis and the general instability in Myanmar will worsen and continue to have implications for its neighbours.

"It is something we have to watch out for and enable our partners in the region, in this case Bangladesh and India, to cope with those stresses without it boiling over into instability in their countries as well," Lu said.

While speaking at an event in Washington last week on "The Indo-Pacific Strategy in Action: Commemorating the Second Anniversary", Lu emphasised the need for empowering partners in the region.

Acknowledging Dhaka's remarkable generosity in hosting over a million people from Myanmar for years, Lu said Washington also put significant efforts to engage and collaborate with Bangladesh to tackle the crisis.

"I have spent a lot of times on Bangladesh, [I saw] the effects of instability in Burma and what it means for the region," Lu, who visited Rohingya refugee camps, said.

Lu also highlighted the international community's efforts to solve the crisis by finding a way for the safe repatriation of the refugees back to Myanmar.

Lu said that the Indo-Pacific strategy is based on the premise that US and like-minded partners would try to offer a better proposition to solve crises in the region.

As the most dynamic and fastest-growing region on earth, the Indo-Pacific is a leading priority for US foreign policy and essential to global security and prosperity.

In 2022, the US inaugurated its Indo-Pacific Strategy, which lays out a shared vision for a free and open region that is more connected, prosperous, secure and resilient.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar situation deepening security problems for Dhaka: US

US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu has said the current situation in Myanmar does not seem to be getting better and he sees deeper security problems for Bangladesh and beyond

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Myanmar situation deepening security problems for Dhaka: US​

Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu recognises State Department employees during an awards ceremony hosted by Secretary of State Antony J Blinken at the US Department of State, in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022. Photo: US State Department/Freddie Everett

The situation in Myanmar isn't improving and this might heighten security risks for Bangladesh and neighboring regions, said US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu.

He warned both Dhaka and Delhi that the security situation born out of the Rohingya refugee crisis and the general instability in Myanmar will worsen and continue to have implications for its neighbours.​

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"It is something we have to watch out for and enable our partners in the region, in this case Bangladesh and India, to cope with those stresses without it boiling over into instability in their countries as well," Lu said.

While speaking at an event in Washington recently on "The Indo-Pacific Strategy in Action: Commemorating the Second Anniversary", Lu emphasised the need for empowering partners in the region.

Acknowledging Dhaka's remarkable generosity in hosting over a million people from Myanmar for years, Lu said Washington also put significant efforts to engage and collaborate with Bangladesh to tackle the crisis.

"I have spent a lot of times on Bangladesh, [I saw] the effects of instability in Burma and what it means for the region," Lu, who visited Rohingya refugee camps, said.

Lu also highlighted the international community's efforts to solve the crisis by finding a way for the safe repatriation of the refugees back to Myanmar.

Lu said that the Indo-Pacific strategy is based on the premise that US and like-minded partners would try to offer a better proposition to solve crises in the region.

As the most dynamic and fastest-growing region on earth, the Indo-Pacific is a leading priority for US foreign policy and essential to global security and prosperity.

In 2022, the US inaugurated its Indo-Pacific Strategy, which lays out a shared vision for a free and open region that is more connected, prosperous, secure and resilient.​

 

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Conflict in Myanmar: Bangladesh needs to handle the situation smartly

Dhaka should not fall into the trap of global and regional players over the Myanmar conflict, which has caused casualties inside Bangladesh, said foreign policy and security analysts.

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Conflict in Myanmar: Bangladesh needs to handle the situation smartly​

Say experts, warn of regional players going to extremes to protect their interests

Dhaka should not fall into the trap of global and regional players over the Myanmar conflict, which has caused casualties inside Bangladesh, said foreign policy and security analysts.

The government needs to have a multi-layered diplomacy in place, which includes engaging the Arakan Army and Chin National Front that are dominating in Chin and Rakhine states bordering Bangladesh, alongside engagement with the Myanmar military, they said.​

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It should form an advisory group for consultation on the Myanmar issue for formulating strategies, they said at a discussion titled "Myanmar Spillover: How worried should Bangladesh be?" organised by The Daily Star at The Daily Star Centre yesterday.

The fighting between the Myanmar military and Arakan Army has forced some 330 Myanmar security forces and their family members into Bangladesh, while stray mortar shells and bullets landing in Bangladesh have created panic among locals.

Thousands of Myanmar nationals, including the Rohingya, were displaced, and there is a risk of new influx. Against this backdrop, the Border Guard Bangladesh has strengthened its capabilities along the border.

Bangladesh has sheltered over a million Rohingyas. No repatriation has taken place. The situation would be complicated due to the ongoing conflict in Myanmar, they said.

Security analyst Sakhawat Hussain said Bangladesh made mistakes in past by engaging with Myanmar bilaterally on the Rohingya repatriation.

"We can see clear possibilities of Arakan Army taking full control of Rakhine state by the year end, and the Myanmar military is now in a bad state."

"At this stage of time, we should go for diplomacy at track-2, track-3, and track-4 levels. We should engage the National Unity Government and the Arakan Army as well," said Brig Gen (retd) Sakhawat Hussain, also senior fellow at the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance at North South University.

"We also should have the show of force as backup for diplomatic offensive," he said.

Bangladesh Enterprise Institute President M Humayun Kabir said the Myanmar crisis has created a more strategic problem than that of the Rohingya repatriation, and it is urgent to take effective measures to prevent it.

"There are risks of free movement to and from Myanmar. China can be involved in stabilising the conflicts in Rakhine. In that case, we can prevent further influx," said the former ambassador.

He suggested that ASEAN already has a five-point demand for Myanmar to transition into democracy, and Bangladesh can pursue for including the issue of Rohingya repatriation there.

Prof Tanzimuddin Khan of International Relations at Dhaka University said several crises could be created by the Myanmar conflicts -- there may be a fresh influx of Myanmar nationals, entry of the Myanmar's beleaguering forces, spread of arms and the insecurity of Bangladeshis along the border area.

He said the fact that the Arakan Army and other groups of Brotherhood Alliance are taking control of Rakhine and Chin states and they would require international recognition, Bangladesh should start "multi-layered diplomacy" by engaging various stakeholders in Myanmar.

Two major regional players will do everything to protect their national interests in Myanmar, and Bangladesh being the most affected country needs to smartly handle the situation, said Prof Tanzimuddin.

The government must keep in mind the national interest and strategic autonomy and smart handling of the Myanmar issue so that it is not in the trap of regional players, he said.

The foreign ministry should have an advisory group consisting of foreign policy and security experts for consultation, Prof Tanzimuddin said.

Southeast Asian history researcher Altaf Parvez said Bangladesh's focus is Rakhine state, but Chin state is also very important for geopolitical reasons. The Chin state borders Bangladesh and there are commonalities between the Chin and some ethnic groups of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh needs to engage the Chin National Front (CNF), which has already formed its government and a constitution, as CNF is positive about Rohingya repatriation and their recognition, he said.

Altaf said Bangladesh may seek support of the CNF leaders for engaging the National Unity Government that is fighting the junta and committed to recognising and repatriating Rohingyas under federal democracy in Myanmar.

The Daily Star Deputy Editor Arun Devnath also spoke at the event moderated by Tanjim Ferdous, In-Charge of NGOs and Foreign Missions of the newspaper.​

 

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Asked China’s help as Myanmar conflict reached border: Quader

Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader today sought China’s intervention saying the internal conflict in Myanmar has reached the Bangladesh border

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Asked China’s help as Myanmar conflict reached border: Quader​

Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader. File photo


Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader today sought China's intervention saying the internal conflict in Myanmar has reached the Bangladesh border.

"Regular gunshots on the other side of the border are spreading panic in our people. The fighting [between the Arakan Army and Myanmar Army] is within their country. But the heavy fighting across the border is scaring people here. That is why I have sought China's intervention," he said.​

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Quader, also Awami League general secretary, made the remarks while replying to a query about tension on the Myanmar border while exchanging views with journalists at his secretariat office in Dhaka this afternoon.

Earlier in the morning, Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen paid a courtesy call on Obaidul Quader.

Responding to a question about the outcome of the meeting, Quader said China can play a key role in the repatriation of Rohingya people from Bangladesh as it is an extra burden for the country.

"Amid global crises, the flow of aid to the Rohingyas has also decreased. Feeding so many people is a big burden for Bangladesh," he added.

The Chinese envoy promised that the Asian powerhouse would try and strengthen its efforts to this end.

Quader said the US talked about free and fair polls in the past but it did not say the election was flawed.

"The United States did not say that the 12th national election was a flawed one. They will continue relations with the current government as both countries have mutual interests to this end," he said.

Quader said the election was a peaceful one.

"We do not know what else would be a free and fair election," he said adding that BNP's refusal to participate in the election didn't mean that the election was not acceptable.​

 

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Myanmar Civil War: Policy experts urge diplomatic push to end instability

As fears grow that Myanmar’s civil war and refugee crisis could deepen in the coming days, foreign policy experts are calling for a diplomatic push by the regional players to facilitate reconciliation among the warring parties.

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Myanmar Civil War: Policy experts urge diplomatic push to end instability​

Donald Lu says regional security at risk

As fears grow that Myanmar's civil war and refugee crisis could deepen in the coming days, foreign policy experts are calling for a diplomatic push by the regional players to facilitate reconciliation among the warring parties.

They said the security challenges for the regional countries, including Bangladesh and India, could go beyond control if steps are not taken immediately.

The issue came to fore when US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Donald Lu warned that the situation in Burma and the refugee crisis were not improving, and that security issues could deepen for Bangladesh and potentially for India in coming days.

"It's something we've to watch out for and enable our partners in the region, in this case Bangladesh and India, to cope with those stresses without it boiling over into instability in their countries as well," he told a discussion marking the two years of US' Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) at the US Institute of Peace in Washington DC on February 15.

Lu elaborated the role of the IPS for a free, open, prosperous and secure region and hailed Sri Lanka as an example of the success of the IPS in collaboration with partners such as India.

He also spoke about the Maldives, where China, the US, India and other countries are competing for influence, but viewed that China will be a good partner when there is genuine, actual competition.

"If there isn't competition, what we have seen over and over again is China offering unsustainable debt for unsustainable projects."

Experts said Lu's warning of regional fallouts due to the Myanmar crisis should trigger a concerted effort by the international community to stabilise Myanmar.

Bangladesh, which is the number one victim of the crisis, should increase its efforts in every manner possible.

They also said global powers are also competing for influence in resourceful Myanmar that is located strategically along the Indian Ocean.

Prof Imtiaz Ahmed of Dhaka University's International Relations Department said Washington supports Myanmar's National Unity Government (NUG), which has an armed wing "Peoples' Defence Force" that, along with the ethnic rebel groups, is fighting the Myanmar military for democracy.

He said Washington wants to have influence in this region to counter China, which has relations both with the Myanmar military and some of the rebel groups, including the Arakan Army (AA), that are now fighting in Bangladesh's bordering Rakhine state.

The civil war, which intensified following the Myanmar military's takeover of Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy in February 2021, spread further since October last year forcing hundreds of Myanmar military members to flee to India and Bangladesh.

Hundreds of thousands of Myanmar civilians, including Rohingyas, in Rakhine have already been displaced and several hundred have been waiting near the border to flee to Bangladesh, which has already been burdened by more than a million Rohingyas and is now denying accepting any more.

M Humayun Kabir, president of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute, said the Myanmar military will definitely try to take back the towns that were occupied by the rebel groups.

"Can Bangladesh stop the Myanmar nationals if the military bombs the bordering towns? There will be obvious influx and spillover of the conflict. This was already evident," he said.

The former ambassador said regional countries besides Bangladesh -- India, China, Thailand -- all will be affected by the conflict. Human trafficking, drug smuggling and conflicts within the Rohingya camps in Cox's Bazar have already been rampant, creating security concerns for Bangladesh.

Trade and connectivity projects, including those of India and China are also being affected, which is why nobody wants an unstable Myanmar, experts say.

Humayun Kabir further said China has been trying for stability in Myanmar but it is going nowhere.

"Other countries including the US, India and China should come up with a diplomatic initiative to facilitate a reconciliation."

Bangladesh, the worst victim of the Myanmar crisis, can also initiate a diplomatic move and the five-points consensus of the ASEAN -- that includes immediate cessation of violence, constructive dialogue among all parties and provision of humanitarian assistance – can be the starting point, he said.

"The ethnic rebel groups want autonomy, not independence. On the other hand, Myanmar army wants a safe exit.

There should be a big push for a solution by the actors. Bangladesh can definitely play a role here."

Prof Imtiaz says there are sociological aspects of the military in Myanmar's governance process.

"Though the majority of Bamar civilians are now fighting for democracy, military influence is very strong there. So, the western type of democracy may not be a feasible option for Myanmar.

"Also, China and India may not want the US to come into the play of Myanmar affairs."

He also said, "In recent times, we have seen India and China, despite having enmity over land borders, took similar positions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Bangladesh's election. They also work together in BRICS. So, they can also work together for stability in Myanmar."

Bangladesh Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud and Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval recently agreed to work together for this purpose, he said.

"I think this is a good move. China can also be involved here."​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar Border: Gunshots, blasts ring out after 3 days’ lull

After three days of lull, fighting resumed across the Bangladesh-Myanmar border yesterday morning, with sound of gunshots and explosions travelling to residents in the nearby Balukhali area of Teknaf upazila in Cox’s Bazar.

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Myanmar Border: Gunshots, blasts ring out after 3 days’ lull​

After three days of lull, fighting resumed across the Bangladesh-Myanmar border yesterday morning, with sound of gunshots and explosions travelling to residents in the nearby Balukhali area of Teknaf upazila in Cox's Bazar.

"Residents awoke to the loud sounds of gunfire and explosions coming from the other side of the border at 7:00am today [Friday], which continued till 10:00am with brief intervals in between," Sirajul Mustafa, a member of the Whykong union parishad, told The Daily Star.

The resumption of fighting near the border has sparked fresh fear among the residents, he added.

Locals say the rebel Arakan Army has already occupied the region in Myanmar across the Balukhali border, and Myanmar's border guards fled to Bangladesh after failing to put up a resistance.

They believe the latest gunfight near the border took place between members of the Arakan Army and a Rohingya drug trafficking gang known as Nabi Hussain group.

For the past few weeks, fierce fighting has been going on between the Arakan Army and Myanmar junta forces across the border near Ghumdhum union of Naikhongchhari upazila in Bandarban, and Palongkhali union of Ukhiya upazila and Whykong union of Teknaf upazila in Cox's Bazar.

Rohingya leaders living in refugee camps in Ukhiya and Teknaf fear that a possible retaliation by Myanmar forces to regain territories in Rakhine may force more Rohingyas to attempt to enter Bangladesh.

In the midst of tension in Myanmar's Rakhine state along the border stretching from Bandarban to Cox's Bazar, nine Rohingyas tried to enter Bangladesh but were turned away Thursday morning.

Aside from that, Border Guard Bangladesh and Bangladesh Coast Guard intercepted a total of 372 Rohingyas attempting to cross the Naf river on small boats this month.

Early this month, fierce clashes broke out between the junta troops and the Arakan Army across the border from the Tumbru area of Naikhongchhari upazila.

The fighting forced 330 members of the Myanmar junta to flee to Bangladesh. They were later handed over to the Myanmar authorities on February 15.

Later, the fighting moved to the border area in Myanmar opposite Shahporir Dwip in Teknaf upazila of Cox's Bazar.

During the fighting between the Myanmar junta troops and the Arakan Army, one Bangladeshi woman and a Rohingya man were killed after a stray mortar shell landed in Ghumdhum under Naikhongchhari upazila earlier this month.​

 

[Saif]

More military bases seized in Myanmar, Rebels claim

These include Kachin, Rakhine and Mon states, and Sagaing and Bago regions

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More military bases seized in Myanmar, Rebels claim​

Myanmar's anti-junta and ethnic armed groups claimed to have captured several more bases from Myanmar Army in some regions of the country in the past five days.

These include Kachin, Rakhine and Mon states, and Sagaing and Bago regions.

 

[Saif]

Myanmar trying to wage war against Bangladesh: Rab DG

'Myanmar has been doing it for a while now… they have been pushing in narcotics as well as Rohingyas into our soil,' says Khurshid Hossain

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Myanmar trying to wage war against Bangladesh: Rab DG​

Photo: Collected

Rapid Action Battalion Director General M Khurshid Hossain yesterday said Myanmar has been trying to wage war with Bangladesh for a long time.

The Rab DG said this while speaking to journalists after a programme in Kashiani upazila of Gopalganj.

"Myanmar has been doing it for a while now… they have been pushing in narcotics as well as Rohingyas into our soil," he added.

However, he said, thanks to the visionary leadership and wisdom of the prime minister, they could not succeed.

"Our premier has firmly said Bangladesh will not engage in war with anyone…," he said.

He continued, "Myanmar has a military government. They are at war with the Arakan Army. They are trying to save themselves by provoking war (with Bangladesh)."

"The situation is worsening in Myanmar… as the Arakan Army is claiming new territories within the country," he said.

Mentioning Myanmar as a major drug route, the Rab DG said drugs are being smuggled into Bangladesh in a planned way for political purposes.

However, he said that they (law enforcers) are aware of it and have already taken measures in this regard.

Drug control is a big challenge now. The Myanmar route has to be closed at any cost. Drugs have become one of the biggest businesses in Bangladesh. Anyone can get rich overnight through drug trading, he said.

All the forces have to work together to eliminate drugs, he said. He also called for a social movement against drugs.​