World Defense Forum The archive Database for Defense Worldwide

[🇧🇩] LDC Graduation For Bangladesh

  • Thread starter Thread starter Saif
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies Replies 11
  • Views Views 105
G Bangladesh Defense Forum
[🇧🇩] LDC Graduation For Bangladesh
11
105
More threads by Saif

Short Summary: Monitoring the events towards LDC graduation.

Saif

Senior Member
Jan 24, 2024
9,725
5,333
Origin

Residence

Axis Group

Bangladesh prioritises smooth LDC graduation, says Salehuddin
FE ONLINE DESK
Published :
Nov 10, 2024 22:28
Updated :
Nov 10, 2024 22:28

1731287594863.png


Adviser to the interim government on the Ministries of Finance and Commerce Dr Salehuddin Ahmed has said Bangladesh is prioritising to ensure smooth and sustainable graduation from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category.

“Bangladesh will prioritise smooth graduation from LDC. It will not happen suddenly.

It will happen at a reasonable time. The graduation will be in the interest of Bangladesh, in the interest of the people,” he said.

Salehuddin came up with the comments while speaking at the negotiation launching ceremony of the Bangladesh-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA) at the Ministry of Commerce in Dhaka on Sunday, reports BSS.

“The decision will be taken considering the situation that can be overcome easily,” he said about the country’s graduation from the LDC.

Salehuddin said the government will take initiatives to sign FTA with as many countries as possible.

He mentioned that Singapore is a potential country for Bangladesh's trade expansion. “In addition to products, there is also the possibility of developing Bangladesh's relations with Singapore in the service and investment sectors,” he added.

He said the initiative to sign a FTA has been taken initially with an aim to increase the trade and investment between the two countries.

High Commissioner of Singapore in Dhaka Derek Loh said that Bangladesh, especially Chattogram, is very important for Singapore due to its geographical location.

Singaporean shipping company PSA is investing in Chattogram Terminal, which will become a major international port through Bay-Terminal Transformation, he added.

Based on this, the trade between the two countries will increase, he opined.

Chief adviser’s Special Envoy on International Affairs Lutfe Siddiqui, Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA) Executive Chairman Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun and Secretary of the Ministry of Commerce Md Selim Uddin, among others, spoke on the occasion.

Earlier, Singapore’s High Commissioner Derek Loh had a courtesy call on Salehuddin Ahmed in his secretariat office​
 

LDC GRADUATION: Bangladesh’s to be or not to be moment
Anis Chowdhury 14 January, 2025, 00:00

1736811395720.png


BANGLADESH is scheduled to graduate out of the least developed country status in November 2026. An LDC’s graduation status depends on meeting the threshold in terms of income, human asset and vulnerability (economic and environmental).

A country’s condition is assessed by the Committee for Development Policy of the United Nations triennially. The Committee also assesses whether a country has an adequate strategy for a smooth transition so that it does not face serious challenges when special support measures for LDCs are withdrawn. That is, a graduated country should not fall back into a condition akin to LDCs.

The Committee for Development Policy then recommends to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission whether a country is ready for graduation and when it should occur. A country may request a deferment based on changed circumstances. The Solomon Islands, which was scheduled to graduate in December 2024, has been granted an additional preparatory period of three years on the request of the government.

Bangladesh passed CDP’s triennial graduation thresholds in 2018, 2021 and 2024. This was hailed as a great development achievement.

But it’s the data, stupid

SOME respectable economists and international institutions, including development partners, have highly praised Bangladesh and termed it as a role model. For example, the former UK prime minister Rishi Sunak called Sheikh Hasina a ‘role model’ for growth and said, ‘Sheikh Hasina is an inspiration to us… You are an effective leader in the economy. You serve as a wonderful role model for my two girls’.

However, as the draft white paper on the economy revealed, the fascist regime succeeded in fooling domestic and international observers largely by manipulating data to epic proportions. The white paper struggled to explain how ‘Bangladesh [was celebrated] as one of the fastest growing countries in the world’ and concluded, ‘The excess growth paradox is a figment of statistical manipulation’ (p. 8).

It is pertinent here to note that the Committee for Development Policy uses, as all other international agencies, the data supplied by the country. Supplying data that discredits a regime is just stupid.

Darrell Huff, in his 1954 book, How to Lie with Statistics, showed how manipulating statistics is not as difficult as we might think. Although statistics is about presenting hard numbers, that does not mean that they cannot be skewed or framed in a way to make the data look better to serve a certain purpose. ‘The crooks already know these tricks,’ Huff wrote.

However, Tim Hartford, the author of the 2022 book How to Truth with Statistics, noted, ‘Statistics can be used to deceive, but they are also a vital tool in our quest to understand the world around us, like a telescope for an astronomer’.

Bangladesh’s Shakespearean dilemma

THE white paper has rightly pointed out the weaknesses in Bangladesh’s preparations for a smooth transition out of its LDC status. It notes, ‘One major concern is the lack of adequate preparation in promoting private investment to assist the country in overcoming post-LDC graduation challenges… the country runs the risk of being confronted by slower economic growth, less competitiveness, and an inability to adapt to the changing market dynamics worldwide’ (p. 135).

It also observes, ‘Bangladesh’s external trade faces critical challenges, including a gradual decline in trade orientation, limited export diversification, capital flight concerns, RMG sector issues, tariff liberalisation hurdles, and weak participation in FTAs... Unfortunately, the previous government failed to address these issues effectively, leaving Bangladesh’s external trade sector vulnerable and hindering its path toward sustained, diversified growth’ (p. 168).

The white paper is also aware of the additional challenge posed by Bangladesh’s other graduation, ie, from the World Bank’s list of low-income countries to a middle-income country (MIC) in 2015. Prior to its middle-income graduation, most loans were on highly concessional terms (p. 313). That is no longer the case.

Of course, the country can negotiate for a mix of concessional and the rates applicable for middle-income countries. However, the white paper doubts whether the country has the necessary professional capacity and institutional strength to negotiate complex borrowings (p. 322).

It also expresses concerns about the lack of a robust and credible statistical ecosystem that would be required to monitor the country’s smooth transition, identify lapses in implementation, and respond effectively with agility (p. 357). The paper remains concerned about coordinated implementation of a Smooth Transition Strategy, including the challenge of institutional and policy leadership (p. 380).

Thus, the white paper believes smooth transition ‘will require putting forward a transition plan to counteract the negative fallouts of Bangladesh’s graduation out of the LDC group and enable the required structural transformation of the economy’ (p. 380).

Yet, the white paper concludes, ‘Notwithstanding the reservations expressed by certain exporters’ groups, there is hardly any plausible reason, as of now, for Bangladesh to request a deferment of the exit date from the LDC group’ (p. 380). It posits that this is because, ‘It will not be out of place to mention that the postponement or deferment of Bangladesh’s LDC graduation date is going to invite political backlash from the expected quarters’ (p. 380).

So, the white paper fuzzily concludes, without evidence or explanations, ‘Indeed, even the recent dampened economic performance during the current fiscal year is not expected to bring the country down below the stipulated thresholds. Further, the concern raised recently about the inflated nature of certain critical indicators will have little relevance in this case’ (p. 380).

Way out of the dilemma

SHOULD fear dictate sound public policy making? Clearly not.

Hamlet, in his famous soliloquy, is torn between perception and reality. He feels it is better to die rather than live and mutely bear the pangs that life has sent him. But he does not know what happens after death, so it seems to him that before diving deeper into the regions of the unknown and unseen, it is better to wait and see.

Instead of passive wait-and-see, the interim government can take some active measures. First, in light of massive data fudging and poor preparations by the previous regime and the downgrading of economic outlook by the World Bank and Moody’s, Bangladesh can justifiably request UN bodies such as ESCAP or CDP to do an independent assessment.

Second, it can initiate national dialogue involving all stakeholders, especially the business leaders and workers of the sectors most likely to be affected. The dialogue will discuss preparedness and work out detailed strategies for a smooth transition.

Third, the smooth transition strategy should be complemented by active industry and human resources development policies aimed at dynamic structural transformation of the economy. The interim government needs to give a clear signal that the economy cannot continue to remain in a comfort zone like an infant and never grow to be an adult. So, the government support measures for a smooth transition and economic diversification should have agreed-upon, monitorable performance indicators, as well as gradual but clear end dates.

Fourth, the interim government should request some additional period of preparations — the specific period to be determined by the outcomes of the above processes.

Fifth, the interim government should immediately act to implement reforms of the statistical ecosystem as the white paper recommended. This is critical for monitoring the transition and economic diversification strategies.

These actions will give the newly elected government — likely to be in office less than half a year before graduation — some breathing space for facing the headwinds of graduation. The newly elected government will also inherit well-developed, smooth transition and dynamic structural transformation strategies, including skill development measures.

The authors of the white paper should support the above actions, which will ensure the white paper’s domestic buy-in and will constitute an external validation of their findings, especially by the United Nations.

Anis Chowdhury is emeritus professor, Western Sydney University, Australia. He held senior United Nations positions in New York and Bangkok.​
 

Is deferment of LDC graduation a viable option for Bangladesh?

1737613117357.png

Visual: Anwer Sohel

As may be recalled, Bangladesh is set to graduate from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category on November 24, 2026. However, some stakeholders in the country argue for a deferment of this graduation for an unspecified period. An objective analysis of the issue and an assessment of the veracity of these divergent views hold practical significance in shaping Bangladesh's stance in this context.

Some clarity in this regard is necessary. While specific criteria exist for including a developing country in the LDC group, it is ultimately up to the concerned country to decide whether it wants to be categorised as such. On the contrary, graduation from the group is contingent upon the LDC meeting the graduation thresholds and fulfilling the graduation procedures. In this sense, inclusion in the LDC group is "voluntary," while graduation is somewhat "mandatory."

To reinforce this point, in 2006, Zimbabwe rejected the UN Committee for Development Policy's (CDP) determination to categorise it as an LDC, stating that it "refuses to be downgraded as an LDC." On the other hand, as noted above, there is a defined procedure for an LDC's graduation. An LDC must meet the criteria for graduation and sustain the record over two successive triennial reviews conducted by the CDP. The CDP then recommends the LDC in question to the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) for graduation. Based on these recommendations, and following consultations and deliberations, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) makes the final decision regarding the graduation of the concerned LDC and the effective date of the decision. For Bangladesh, the UNGA decided that its graduation would take effect on November 24, 2026 (alongside Nepal and Lao PDR).

It is worth noting that the graduation of LDCs has been deferred in the past, even when eligibility for graduation was met. For instance, the graduation of several Pacific Island LDCs (e.g., Small Island Developing States such as Vanuatu and Kiribati) was deferred multiple times due to their vulnerability to environmental challenges. These countries were eligible for graduation primarily based on the "income-only" criteria. Similarly, Nepal, which first met the graduation criteria in 2015 (three years before Bangladesh), will graduate simultaneously with Bangladesh, as it was not recommended for graduation in 2018 due to the 2017 earthquake.

Understandably, the call for Bangladesh's graduation deferment is being led by the export-oriented RMG sector, which accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total exports. The implications of the loss of preferences for this sector and the country are significant. Since tariffs on apparel items in major markets range from 10-15 percent, the adverse impact of preference erosion on RMG competitiveness will undoubtedly be considerable. Deferment of graduation would allow Bangladesh to continue enjoying various "Special and Differential" treatment provisions in the World Trade Organization (WTO), specifically targeted at LDCs.

Indeed, among the LDCs, Bangladesh has benefited the most from preferential treatment due to its relatively higher supply-side capacities compared to most other LDCs. Not surprisingly, the country also stands to lose the most in the absence of such preferences. WTO estimates (2020) show that of the potential losses from preference erosion (in terms of foregone export earnings) for the 12 LDCs eligible for graduation at the time, 90 percent would be incurred by Bangladesh alone.

While it is conceivable that the government might, at some future point (before the November 2026 deadline), decide to request a deferment of graduation, such a request would need to be strongly justified. The CDP will closely monitor and assess the smooth transition process. Ultimately, the UNGA must be convinced of the validity of the request.

In the end, any request for deferment must also be seen as a "political call" that Bangladesh must weigh carefully. Nepal and Lao PDR are progressing towards graduation without considering deferment, while Bhutan graduated in December 2023 without seeking a deferral. Should Bangladesh choose deferment, it will be the only South Asian country, aside from war-ravaged Afghanistan, to remain an LDC beyond 2026. Is this a position Bangladesh would find acceptable?

In this context, Bangladesh's best course of action would be to prepare for smooth and sustainable graduation from the LDC group. Bangladesh has already developed a "Smooth Graduation Strategy," with concrete recommendations from seven sub-committees, awaiting approval by the National Committee on Graduation. According to the most recent triennial review by the CDP (February 2024), Bangladesh's eligibility for graduation has been reaffirmed, and as noted in the white paper committee report, "there is hardly any plausible reason, as of now, for Bangladesh to request a deferment of the exit date from the group." However, the white paper also highlights concerns about the coordinated implementation of the strategy, including challenges related to institutional and policy leadership. These concerns must be addressed with urgency and within a time-bound framework.

To this end, Bangladesh should focus on necessary reforms and structural transformations to ensure smooth and sustainable graduation. Trade policies, incentives, and import duties should be scrutinised to ensure compliance with global obligations associated with graduation. The country must transition from preference-based competitiveness to one based on skills and productivity. Adequate measures should be taken to ensure compliance with Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) obligations, the Trade Facilitation Agreement, and other WTO-mandated agreements applicable to non-LDC developing countries. Compliance with International Labour Organization (ILO) conventions and protocols must also be ensured and enforced. Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) should be negotiated, and "offensive" and "defensive" strategies should be designed appropriately in view of this. In the absence of membership in such trading partnerships and groupings, Bangladesh may find itself in a situation where it will need to export on a non-preferential basis, while its competitors, such as India, Pakistan, Vietnam, China and Cambodia, will enjoy preferential access to many markets (thanks to bilateral and regional free trade agreements and CEPAs to which these countries are members).

The global trading landscape is evolving rapidly, with an increased emphasis on greening trade, enhanced compliance requirements, and stricter environmental, gender and labour standards. Many of these requirements are being demanded not only by governments but also by brands, buyers, advocacy groups, and consumers.

Bangladesh's priorities must focus on domestic preparations and the implementation of its smooth graduation strategy. Reforms and structural changes must be implemented, the capacity to access regional and global markets from a position of strength must be enhanced, compliance with the newly emerging global trading regime must be ensured, and triangulation of transport, investment and trade connectivity must be established.

The discussion on deferring Bangladesh's LDC graduation should not divert attention from undertaking the urgent tasks required to address the challenges of smooth graduation and ensure its sustainability. Gaining a few additional years (if at all) must not serve as an excuse to avoid taking the necessary steps. Bangladesh's policy measures and implementation efforts must be aligned with the new and upcoming phase of its journey as a non-LDC developing country.

Dr Mustafizur Rahman is distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).​
 

WTO to support Bangladesh’s LDC graduation, its DG tells Dr Yunus
UNB
Published :
Jan 24, 2025 21:19
Updated :
Jan 24, 2025 21:19

1737763851144.png


World Trade Organisation (WTO) Director General Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on Friday said the global trade body would help Bangladesh graduate smoothly from Least Developed Country (LDC) and persuade top businesses to shift their supply chains to the South Asian nation.

The WTO Director General made the comments when she met Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in the Swiss mountain city of Davos.

Referring to Bangladesh’s impending graduation from the LDC category, Dr Ngozi said that the WTO would make sure that the process is smooth.

“We have established principles. We will be working with you,” Chief Adviser’s Deputy Press Secretary quoted her as saying.

The WTO DG also said she was talking with top global businesses and trying to persuade them to relocate their supply chains to Bangladesh as part of global logistic decentralisation.

“I told them, why not Bangladesh? We are doing more pushes to have more supply chains in Bangladesh,” she added.

Chief Adviser Prof Yunus praised the leadership of Dr Ngozi, saying she has brought dynamism to the global trade talks.

Dr Yunus also said Bangladesh is now open for business, after the misrule and oligarchs-linked business deals ruined the country’s economy.

He said Bangladesh can easily be one of the largest manufacturing hubs with millions of young and tech-savvy skilled workers.

The Chief Adviser said the interim government was carrying out vital reforms in the economy and eased congestion in Chittagong Port in an effort to attract more foreign investment.

“We’ve also launched a fight against corruption,” he said, adding people linked with the ruling family were involved in corrupt international deals.

Dr Ngozi said she was impressed by the spirits of the young protesters during the July mass uprising. “They have set an unprecedented example sending the most impactful messages.”

She also praised the leadership of Professor Yunus in bringing stability to the country and putting Bangladesh back on the global map. “You are an image of stability. And stability and calm have returned to Bangladesh.”

During the talks at a Davos hotel, Dr Ngozi urged Bangladesh to ratify the fisheries subsidy agreement. Bangladesh will look into it, the Chief Adviser said.

On Dr Ngozi’s request on the Fish-2 agreement, Ambassador Tareq Md Ariful Islam, Bangladesh’s Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, said Bangladesh is constructively engaging in its negotiation.

Dr Ngozi also requested Bangladesh to facilitate other instruments under negotiation at the WTO, including the investment facilitation for development agreement.

Lamiya Morshed, SDGs Affairs Principal Coordinator, also attended the meeting.​
 

Defer LDC graduation by 3 years: BCI

1737848422907.png


The government should take steps to defer Bangladesh's United Nations status graduation from a least developed country (LDC) to a developing one by at least three years, said the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI) yesterday.

"We are not ready for LDC graduation right now. Why should we consciously commit suicide?" said BCI President Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury at a press briefing organised by the BCI in the capital.

He also shared his concerns over the country's economic challenges and business climate.

Chowdhury alleged that the previous Awami League government pursued the LDC graduation based on inflated economic figures in order to portray an achievement.

"If the graduation is not deferred, the economy will face a massive collapse," he said.

The garment and textile sector, which accounts for 40 percent of manufacturing employment and contributes roughly 85 percent of exports, will bear the brunt of the challenges, he added.

Chowdhury said Vietnam would enjoy zero-tariff access to the European Union from 2027, while European importers of Bangladeshi garments would face a 12 percent duty from 2029.

"We strongly believe that the graduation period should be deferred by at least three more years," he said.

Other business platform earlier also recommended the deferment.

But Education and Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud had pointed out that Bangladesh had no option to adopt the deferment.

Members of a committee which prepared a white paper on the state of Bangladesh's economy also advised the government not to defer the LDC graduation.

About the current economic situation, Chowdhury alleged that the incumbent government was trying to steer the country based on the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) prescriptions.

"It will not suit the nation's existing economic conditions," he said.

Bangladesh Bank has adopted contractionary policies, reduced liquidity, and taken "unfavourable" steps for the economy, industries, and businesses, he said.

"While partial adherence to IMF prescriptions can help meet compliance requirements, full implementation will adversely impact the economy," said Chowdhury.

The BCI president criticised the government for "not prioritising economic reforms".

"High-interest rates, contractionary monetary policies, unresolved energy crises, and potential fuel price hikes clearly show the government's approach is not supportive of industrial growth," Chowdhury said.

He warned that such policies would not only deter new investments but also make survival difficult for existing industries.

On the political front, Chowdhury expressed disappointment over a lack of focus on economic issues.

"The government and political parties have overlooked pressing economic issues and the challenges faced by businesses, diverting their attention to less critical priorities," he claimed.

He also urged the interim government to expedite the electoral process to stabilise the political climate.

Chowdhury pointed to recent statements by Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur and Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed downplaying the impacts of rising interest rates and VAT hikes, labelling them as "misleading".

He criticised the government's decision to increase reliance on VAT hikes instead of expanding the tax net.

"Such measures are creating confusion among industrial entrepreneurs, who are already grappling with rising costs and operational uncertainties," he said.

Chowdhury also raised concerns about branding entrepreneurs as classified or defaulters without considering the systemic challenges they face.

"The burden of banking irregularities caused by a few individuals or groups is being unfairly placed on the shoulders of all entrepreneurs. Many defaulters are victims of rising operational costs and adverse conditions," he said.

Calling for the introduction of bankruptcy laws, Chowdhury added, "If the government fails to provide protection, entrepreneurs will be forced to shut down their businesses. This gap in legal infrastructure must be urgently addressed."

BCI Senior Vice-President Priti Chakraborty and directors Shahidul Islam, Delowar Hossain, S M Shah Alam, and Zia Hayder were present.​
 

High external trade costs should be reduced for LDC graduation
29 January, 2025, 00:00

EXTERNAL trade costs, the costs incurred in trading in goods and services internationally in addition to the price for which producers sell the goods and services, are significantly high. They are also higher than such costs in India, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore. Such high costs of external trade — which cover the cost of transport, taxes, infrastructure, communications, foreign exchange, insurance, customs clearance and trade documentation — work as a curb on import and export. A former Trade and Tariff Commission member, who delivered the keynote speech at a seminar on ‘reforms in customs, income tax and value-added tax management to address LDC graduation challenges’ that the Economic Relations Division organised in the National Economic Council conference room in Dhaka on January 27, blamed delayed customs clearance, lack of competence and improper logistic services and poor trade and transport infrastructure for the high external trade costs, noting that the overall export could increase by 7.4 per cent if the time needed for customs clearance would be cut by a day and the easing of customs procedures could boost the competitive domestic products by at least 5 per cent. The finance adviser who attended the seminar as chief guest, therefore, calls for an increased competitiveness of domestic trade before the graduation of Bangladesh from one of the least developed countries to a developing country in November 2026.

The graduation will come without duty- and quota-free access to some major export markets, which is why it is imperative to increase the efficiency of all the agencies involved to cut down on the high external trade costs as a leverage against the loss of entitlements. The government would also need to phase out subsidy on export products. All this makes reforms in tax measures, value-added tax management and customs procedures imperative. Representatives from the private sector who attended the seminar put out a call for the deferral of the graduation by a few more years so that the country gets some time to prepare for the challenges that would be forthcoming. They, perhaps, believe that the graduation, for which Bangladesh qualified for in 2021 and was initially set to take place in 2024 but was deferred by two years on a government request, could be further deferred to prepare to fully reap the benefits of the graduation. A further deferral could hardly be an option as it would mean the deferral of the graduation entitlements. And, it would also mean that Bangladesh has not made the preparation all these years. The adviser calls for an increase in the competitiveness of the local business before the graduation by also maintaining labour and environmental compliance, putting out a call for the private sector to be proactive along with the government in meeting the graduation challenges and effectively implementing the transition strategy adopted in November 2024, which could also be reviewed in the changed political context.

It is already time that the government, along with the private sector, took steps to reduce the high external trade cost to stay competitive after Bangladesh, in effect, graduates to a developing country in 2026.​
 

Should Bangladesh defer LDC graduation?
Atiqul Kabir Tuhin
Published :
Jan 29, 2025 23:54
Updated :
Jan 29, 2025 23:54

1738195717139.png


As Bangladesh approaches its scheduled graduation from the United Nations' Least Developed Country (LDC) category in November 2026, concerns are mounting among industrialists and exporters about the potential impact on their businesses. With the impending loss of trade benefits typically enjoyed by LDC countries, there is a growing call from business leaders for a deferment of this graduation.

Recently, the president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI) Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury also voiced concerns about the potential consequences of LDC graduation. He warned that Bangladesh's economy could face severe consequences if the LDC graduation proceeds as scheduled. Highlighting the country's ongoing economic challenges, including a depressed business climate, he noted that approximately 100 garment factories have already been closed in the past year, and another 200 are on the verge of closure. He concluded that amidst this challenging environment, "LDC graduation would be suicidal for Bangladesh."

There is no denying that the economy is in the throes of a multitude of crises, including persistent high inflation, foreign exchange imbalance, dollar shortage, dwindling foreign reserves, decline in investment, widening fiscal deficit, and a surge in non-performing loans in the banking sector. Initially, the economy started facing headwinds due to a confluence of external shocks - COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war. Then, internal political instability, widespread corruption, and an estimated $16 billion in annual money laundering during Sheikh Hasina's autocratic rule have exacerbated the country's economic woes. And then, following the August 5 changeover, a prolonged political chaos and uncertainty, coupled with gas crisis have led to widespread factory closures and labour unrest. This has made many weary of the country's economic future and prompted calls for the deferment of the graduation.

While graduation from the LDC category marks a significant milestone in Bangladesh's development trajectory, it will present new economic realities and challenges. As an LDC, Bangladesh has historically enjoyed a range of significant benefits, including duty-free and quota-free market access to major markets, which has particularly helped the garment sector to thrive, access preferential treatment and extended implementation periods under World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements, eligibility for significant financial and technical assistance from donor countries and international organizations under the Official Development Assistance (ODA), and lowered budgetary contributions to international organisations such as the United Nations.

These benefits have played a crucial role in Bangladesh's economic development. However, upon graduation from LDC status, Bangladesh will lose access to these preferential treatments. For example, according to a recent government strategy paper, 75 per cent of Bangladesh's exports enjoy duty-free access to international markets due to its LDC status. Once Bangladesh graduates to a developing country, it will no longer be eligible for this preferential treatment. Instead, an average tariff of 20 per cent could be imposed on exports, depending on the importing country. This raises concerns about the future of the country's export-oriented industries. Will exporters be able to maintain their competitiveness without these privileges? Can the economy withstand a potential decline in exports as a result of loss of preferential trade benefits in export?

Given these impending challenges, many are of the view that the government must carefully consider the implications of the graduation and determine the timeframe for a smooth transition based on economic realities. But the question is, will it be feasible for Bangladesh to request a deferment?

Precedents for deferment exist. For instance, Nepal, which first met the graduation criteria in 2015, requested to defer its graduation following a devastating earthquake in 2017. Now, Nepal will graduate from LDC in 2026.

However, any request for deferment would require strong justification and would undergo rigorous scrutiny by the United Nations Committee for Development Policy (CDP). The CDP will closely monitor Bangladesh's progress and assess the country's readiness for a smooth transition.

It is important to note that Bangladesh has already met the graduation criteria on two previous occasions (2018 and 2021). The CDP's latest triennial review (February 2024) reaffirmed that Bangladesh has comfortably met the criteria for LDC graduation. According to the latest assessment, Bangladesh's Gross National Income (GNI) per capita stands at $2,684, significantly above the graduation threshold. The Human Assets Index (HAI) of 77.50 also surpasses the graduation requirement and the LDC average. Additionally, Bangladesh's Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) of 27 in 2024 meets the graduation criteria of 32 or below. Even considering the recent subdued economic performance, it is unlikely that Bangladesh will fall below the required thresholds for LDC graduation.

Moreover, a deferment would position Bangladesh as an outlier among its South Asian neighbours. Bhutan graduated in 2023, and Nepal is set to graduate in 2026, leaving only war-torn Afghanistan to stay in the LDC category after 2026. Would Bangladesh find it comfortable to remain in such a position?

Considering this, some observers opine that the best option for Bangladesh will be to focus on necessary reforms and capacity building for a smooth and sustainable graduation, rather than getting distracted by calls for deferment. The panel of experts that prepared the white paper on Bangladesh's economy has also recommended proceeding with the scheduled graduation. It advised the government to formulate a robust transition plan to mitigate potential adverse impacts and facilitate structural transformation.

Experts suggest that to tackle post-LDC challenges, Bangladesh must diversify its economy and export basket, reduce reliance on preferential trade agreements, and develop competitive advantages in skills, productivity, and innovation. By enhancing trade competitiveness, improving export quality, negotiating bilateral and regional trade agreements, and complying with WTO regulations, intellectual property rights, and labour standards, Bangladesh can avail itself of preferential access to many markets. Equally important will be compliance with evolving global trade trends, which increasingly emphasise sustainability, environmental responsibility, and social equity. By addressing these challenges and implementing a comprehensive strategy, Bangladesh will be better equipped to navigate the post-LDC challenges and position itself as a more competitive and competent player in the global market.​
 

WTO and LDC graduation
Asjadul Kibria
Published :
Feb 01, 2025 23:24
Updated :
Feb 01, 2025 23:24

1738455291038.png


There is a call for deferring the country's graduation from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. Some civil society activists and trade bodies have raised concerns about the possible adverse effects of the graduation, which is scheduled to happen by the end of next year formally. Though the discussion about deferment of graduation is not new, it has become widespread after the fall of the Hasina regime. The ousted regime displayed the decision of graduation, taken by the United Nations (UN), as one of its great success stories. Due to the oppressive attitude of the Hasina government, it was difficult to raise questions about the move at that time. Nevertheless, some differed with the government for its hurry in pursuing graduation and called for extensive preparation to equip the post-graduation shock. But The autocratic government took little heed of it.

It's important to note that seeking graduation from the LDC category is not inherently negative. In fact, it signifies a nation's ambition to progress, fostering prosperity and reducing poverty. This aspiration can inspire a poor country to strive for a better future, where citizens can enjoy an improved standard of living and the government can rely less on foreign aid.

UN also encourages LDCs to transform themselves into competitive ones. Certain benchmarks have also been set in this connection to measure the advancement of the LDCs and identify whether they are fit for getting out of the category of the poorest nation. An increase in per capita income to a certain amount (at least $1306), advancement in human development and reduction in economic vulnerabilities are the factors that help a country to become non-LDC. The LDCs regularly provide information about their development in these areas to the relevant body of the UN, the Committee for Development Policy (CDP), for review. After reviewing the data and statistics so presented, the UNCDP decides which LDCs are moving toward graduation.

It's crucial to understand that the UN body does not independently verify the authenticity or reliability of a country's data. It's the responsibility of each nation to provide accurate data, ensuring a clear and trustworthy representation of their development. Similarly, countries must undertake the necessary groundwork and preparations to effectively manage the challenges that come after graduation.

Those urging for deferment of the LDC graduation have provided several reasons for doing so. According to them, the country's socio-economic advancement scenario is based on some flawed and distorted data and statistics. They blamed the ousted Hasina regime for manipulating key data to conceal weakness and provide deceptive advancement in some areas. They also argued that without adequate preparation and measures to reform the key areas, the ousted government pushed the agenda of graduation based on distorted data.

The arguments are valid to a large extent. The problem is that these can't be presented as reasons before the UN while seeking the deferment of graduation. Trying to do so will tarnish the country's image and severely damage the acceptability of national development. Instead, some prudent and widely acceptable factors need to be presented with strong arguments to substantiate the request for deferment of graduation. But the work is not so easy.

A popular misperception is the role of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Last month, Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus met WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos. At the meeting, the WTO chief said that the multilateral trade body would help Bangladesh graduate smoothly from the LDC category. Taking a cue from the meeting, some expressed disappointment and blamed WTO for pushing the graduation.

Being an LDC, Bangladesh has enjoyed several benefits and flexibilities, especially in the area of global trade. These also help the country become competitive after a certain period when compliance with international trade rules and regulations becomes easier. WTO is the international organisation that makes trade rules and trade-related dispute settlements. Bangladesh has been a member of the organisation since its formal inception in 1995 and joined GATT, the predecessor of the WTO, in 1972. So, the country is closely associated with the organisation and has been playing an active role in various multilateral trade negotiations under the umbrella of the WTO. Bangladesh also led the LDC group in these negotiations for long.

There's a common misconception that the WTO determines the graduation of LDCs. This misunderstanding has led some civil society organisations to pressure governments to seek a waiver from the WTO. However, it's important to clarify that the WTO has no authority over a country's inclusion in or exclusion from the LDC category. This decision falls solely under the jurisdiction of the UNCDP.

In fact, the multilateral trade body cannot offer any unilateral facility. Bangladesh and other LDCs have been frantically trying to extend the trade benefits for graduating LDCs for a couple of years. In other words, these countries want to get the benefits even after they are stripped of the LDC tag for three to six years. They also wish to gradually phase out the LDC-specific benefits to make graduation smooth and sustainable. So far, little progress has been made in this regard, and the LDCs are still negotiating. WTO DG actually referred to the process. And there is no scope for requesting WTO to defer the graduation.​
 

Bangladesh cannot unilaterally defer its LDC graduation timeframe: Dr. Zahid
BSS
Published :
Feb 01, 2025 18:36
Updated :
Feb 01, 2025 18:36

1738455425224.png


Former lead economist of the World Bank Bangladesh Office Dr. Zahid Hussain has said Bangladesh cannot unilaterally defer its LDC graduation timeframe.

“The United Nations Committee for Development Policy (UN-CDP) had recommended Bangladesh’s graduation from the LDCs in 2021. This recommendation, while not automatically enforcing graduation, is seen as largely mandatory since the UN General Assembly tends to follow the CDP's recommendations,” he said.

Zahid Hussain said this in a recent interview with the national news agency at his residence while sharing his insights on the country's graduation from the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) category.

Dr. Hussain noted that several countries that faced setbacks during the graduation process were granted an extended preparatory period before graduation.

This provides them with additional time to address any concerns or challenges identified. Bangladesh has already got a two-year extension.

Addressing reservations from the business community about Bangladesh’s LDC graduation slated for 2026, Dr. Hussain clarified that once a country qualifies for graduation, the responsibility falls on them to ensure that all concerns are adequately addressed.

As Bangladesh prepares for its graduation in 2026, it is imperative for the country to address the concerns of the business community and ensure a smooth transition.

The renowned economist shared these perspectives providing a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for Bangladesh from LDC graduation.

Elaborating on the matter, Dr. Zahid said, “Now, I think there is limited scope for deferring the country’s graduation through changing data and statistics. There is also less scope for bringing down the statistics below the threshold level on per capita income, human development, and vulnerability indices,” he said.

Bangladesh is the first country recommended for graduation by meeting all three criteria, Dr Zahid said adding “We’ll have to accept that we’ll graduate and acting on tackling the possible impact on our competitiveness. We should be prepared.”

In the last Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO) held in Abu Dhabi, the ministers decided to allow the continuation of the LDC trade benefits to the graduating LDCs for three more years.

The European Union (EU) will continue the LDC trade benefits for Bangladesh up to 2029, offering a three-year grace period to the graduating LDCs.

A few other countries like Canada, the UK, and Australia will also continue the LDC trade benefit for Bangladesh even after the graduation.

When asked about the ‘middle-income trap’ that many are apprehending Bangladesh is already in, Dr. Zahid said if political stability and structural economic reforms are not ensured, then nothing will get us out of the trap.

“We’ll have to bring about necessary changes in three areas in particular- in export diversification, investment and skill development. We’ve a big opportunity ahead of us which is the new economic policy of US President Donald Trump,” Dr Zahid said.

Under this circumstance, the multinational companies which have businesses in China are searching for alternate places to relocate their businesses ...like Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, he noted.

Dr. Zahid said many are also talking about Bangladesh on the global stage...but Bangladesh is still not fully ready in terms of investment climate like addressing complexities in getting visas, readiness of the economic zones, and complexities of business regulation, money repatriation, and so on.

“If we can become fully ready, then there could be a quantum jump in FDI and thus the door of immense opportunities would be opened,” he hoped.

As Bangladesh approaches this crucial transition, Dr Zahid said the government’s proactive stance on economic zones is a laudable step. Instead of an ambitious plan to establish 100 economic zones, the focus has shifted to creating five well-equipped zones urgently.

“This strategic move aims to provide the necessary facilities and regulatory reforms to foster a ‘plug-and-play’ environment for investors,” he added.

Dr Zahid observed that by streamlining business regulations and ensuring the readiness of these special economic zones (SEZs), Bangladesh can hope to attract significant foreign direct investment (FDI) and boost the country's economic prospects.

Dr. Zahid acknowledged the issues raised by the business community about their concerns over current business environment. The state of the financial sector and the inconsistent supply of gas and electricity are two major factors contributing to low business confidence to some extent, he said.

The former World Bank lead economist further highlighted the challenges related to the supply of LNG. The government faces difficulties in maintaining sustainable supply while selling LNG below the buying price, he said.

In the new Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), Dr Zahid said some forward guidance is likely to come in which way the central bank would run its policy and programs.

“With the unveiling of the FY26 budget in June this year, he said, all will be able to know in which way the economic policy and management will move forward and then the cloud in the sky will clear.”

Asked whether the government’s economic reforms agenda is getting less importance than other reform agendas, he said the government certainly has the realization that they would have to carry out economic reforms and there is no doubt in this regard.

“But, despite having strong will, they often couldn’t translate those into actions as the initiatives should have to come from the administration itself and from the concerned ministries,” he said.​
 

Diversification can meet post-LDC challenges

Published :
Feb 13, 2025 23:47
Updated :
Feb 13, 2025 23:47

1739493886816.png


The government's initiative to speed up export diversification in preparation for post-LDC challenges is a complex task requiring both persistent efforts and innovative approaches. A FE report says the relevant authorities are developing a strategy to maintain the competitiveness of four major export products-excluding ready-made garments (RMG)-after Bangladesh graduates from its Least Developed Country (LDC) status in 2026. These include leather and leather goods, jute goods, agricultural and agro-processed products, and pharmaceuticals. Upon graduation, Bangladesh will no longer be permitted to provide export subsidies under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) regulations. In anticipation of this transition, the government has been gradually phasing out cash incentives to mitigate the impact of subsidy withdrawal. Currently, leather and leather goods sector benefits from a 10 per cent cash incentive, jute products receive 10 per cent, agricultural and agro-processed goods enjoy 10 per cent, and pharmaceutical products receive 6.0 per cent. Last year, the government reduced cash incentives for nearly all sectors, signalling the gradual elimination of these benefits. However, a complete withdrawal of subsidies will significantly impact competitiveness of industries here, necessitating strategic interventions to sustain export growth.

Export diversification is a package comprising scores of issues from product development, adaptation, quality assurance, market demand analysis, compliance fulfilment, competitive pricing and so on. So, when it comes to diversification of exportable products, it must not be seen as a remedy readily available. It has to be worked on, in a planned manner taking into account all relevant factors as a package. In the past, the Export Promotion Bureau undertook many foreign-aided export diversification projects. However, as many of the projects approached the aforementioned package only partially, the outcome was far from satisfactory.

The reason why diversification figures so prominently is because of its many tangible benefits. Diversification of export composition protects a country from the risk of an unpredictable declining trend in international prices of exportable commodities that, in turn, leads to unstable export earnings. Export diversification could, therefore, help stabilise export earnings in the long run. Diversification provides the opportunities to extend investment risks over a wider portfolio of the economic sector which eventually increases income. It can also be seen as an input factor that has the effect of increasing the productivity of other factors of production. Furthermore, economic growth and structural change depend upon the type of products that are being traded. Thus export diversification allows an economy to achieve some of its macroeconomic objectives namely sustainable economic growth, satisfactory balance of payment situation, employment, and redistribution of income.

The four selected sectors are well-chosen given their strong growth potential and market demand. However, two additional sectors, light engineering and plastics, also warrant consideration. These have demonstrated remarkable potential and could further contribute to export diversification efforts. As the government develops its strategic framework, it is crucial to engage all stakeholders, including industry representatives, exporters, and policymakers, in order to build a comprehensive and consensus-driven approach to remain competitive in the post-LDC era.​
 
relevant authorities are developing a strategy to maintain the competitiveness of four major export products-excluding ready-made garments (RMG)-after Bangladesh graduates from its Least Developed Country (LDC) status in 2026. These include leather and leather goods, jute goods, agricultural and agro-processed products, and pharmaceuticals.

The four selected sectors are well-chosen given their strong growth potential and market demand. However, two additional sectors, light engineering and plastics, also warrant consideration. These have demonstrated remarkable potential and could further contribute to export diversification efforts.

Light Engineering and Plastics (as well as Pharma) are going to need strong investment encouragement policy regimes in absence of export subsidies, which are banned by WTO rules and which Bangladesh govt. has been providing so far, which helped.

Letting Pakistani light-engineering investors to invest in Bangladesh will also be wonderful as that sector is very well-developed there. These guys have made a science out of value-added products out of ship-scrap alone (motorcycle parts and lathes among other thousand things) and their involvement in Bangladesh will be a Godsend. We should also encourage stainless steel surgery implement makers as well as sports good folks from Pakistan to set up shop to supply locally in Bangladesh to help import substitution. These companies are based in the Sialkot area.

In particular I refer to API manufacturing (for basic Pharma Ingredients) and plastic pellets manufacturing (as well as mold-making expertise) for plastic molders locally in Bangladesh. These and other backward integration encouragement steps need to be taken immediately, to foster competitive advantage for exports.

Look how many Pharma API companies Indian entrepreneurs invested in (I'm sure India Govt. subsidized some of this. Ours efforts are quite poor in comparison.

 
Last edited:

Life after LDC graduation
Are we prepared to seize the new global opportunities?


1739749575963.png

VISUAL: SHAIKH SULTANA JAHAN BADHON

As Bangladesh prepares to graduate from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category in November 2026, a pressing question looms: should the new government reconsider its strategy for this monumental transition?

It is important to recognise that this graduation is a collective leap forward for its people and businesses, who will be at the forefront of both the challenges and opportunities that come with this transition.

Bangladesh presents a sui generis case for two primary reasons. First, it is the largest LDC to graduate, with a population of 171 million. Second, according to a WTO study on the "Trade Impacts of LDC Graduation," 90 percent of the graduation-related trade losses would be incurred by Bangladesh alone. It is estimated that graduation will result in a 14.28 percent decline in Bangladesh's exports.

Bangladesh is set to graduate at a pivotal moment marked by unprecedented global and domestic instabilities. Serious questions are now being raised about the veracity of the development narrative upheld by the past regime of nearly two decades, which relied on questionable public statistics.

As critics argue that the decision to pursue LDC graduation was, to a large extent, politically motivated, and as part of the business community voices its resistance to this move, it is critical to qualitatively assess Bangladesh's preparedness for sustainable LDC graduation. It must be taken into account that, for countless entrepreneurs, this is not merely a policy shift but a direct threat to the survival of their businesses, livelihoods, and the health of their communities.

Bangladesh should urgently establish a structured consultative mechanism to engage all key stakeholders—businesses, civil society, and experts—in deliberating the best course of action: whether to delay LDC graduation by a few more years after 2026 or to embrace it now.

If the consultative mechanism determines that Bangladesh should proceed with graduation, as generating "real" statistics within the stipulated time is practically challenging, the existing transition strategy, which began nearly a decade ago, can be revisited. A National Committee was formed in 2021 to assess the impacts and draft an action plan. The committee's recommendations are currently under government review for final approval.

The recommendations of that committee should be highlighted, as they rightly suggest strategically navigating Bangladesh's evolving status to capitalise on current and future opportunities. The approach is threefold. First, as an LDC, Bangladesh should actively advocate for the implementation of existing LDC-specific policy flexibilities. Second, Bangladesh must proactively push for the creation of multilateral rules to support sustainable graduation. Third, assuming its new status as a developing country, Bangladesh must prepare and act upon forward-looking strategies to seize emerging global opportunities.

By now, Bangladesh has made significant progress on the first two counts. Notably, it has played a leading role at the WTO, representing the LDC Group and ensuring that concerns surrounding LDC graduation receive due attention. In 2020, the LDC Group tabled a proposal requesting a 12-year extension of all LDC-specific trade support measures after graduation.

After intense discussions, WTO members partially adopted a few elements of this proposal by: i) encouraging preference-granting countries to provide "a smooth and sustainable transition period" for the withdrawal of preferences; ii) extending LDC-specific technical assistance for three years after graduation; and iii) maintaining the peace clause for dispute settlement for three years after graduation.

While these developments are steps in the right direction, they fall short of the original 12-year request, reflecting the systemic reluctance of some developed countries, particularly the US, to prolong LDC-specific flexibilities. As a result, Bangladesh must prepare for the reality of losing access to LDC-related benefits.

Bangladesh's priority must now be building domestic institutions, strengthening negotiation capacity, and leveraging new economic opportunities. LDC graduation presents a chance for Bangladesh to rethink its development model and position itself as a competitive, sustainable, and digitally driven economy.

Trade will remain the cornerstone of Bangladesh's integration into the global economy. To translate these opportunities into tangible benefits, Bangladesh must immediately implement a set of strategic action plans.

First, LDC graduation could make Bangladesh more attractive to foreign investors. However, this requires significant domestic legal and regulatory reforms. Outdated regulations, infrastructure gaps, and bureaucratic inefficiencies must be addressed to create a conducive investment climate. The demand for dedicated commercial courts continues to grow. The government must not only establish these courts in Dhaka and Chattogram as initially planned but also prioritise their creation in at least six divisional headquarters, followed by an expansion into every district.

Second, Bangladesh's strategic location in the Asia-Pacific region offers immense potential for regional integration and connectivity. This region is growing rapidly and is home to over 200 regional and free trade agreements (FTA). Deeper economic integration with regional economies can diversify Bangladesh's exports and enhance economic resilience. Bangladesh should actively pursue FTAs with key trading partners.

Third, LDC graduation should be viewed as an opportunity to embrace sustainable industrialisation. Bangladesh should capitalise on its comparative green advantages, such as eco-friendly jute products and renewable energy. A roadmap for green economic transformation must be developed to align with global sustainability goals and standards.

Fourth, Bangladesh holds immense potential in digital trade, particularly in digitally delivered services. The country has already emerged as a leader in freelance digital services. To scale up, Bangladesh must develop a regulatory framework that enables and facilitates cross-border e-commerce. To pursue this, the domestic e-commerce sector must be strengthened by developing a trust-based business model that follows global best practices.

Fifth, SMEs are vital contributors to GDP and employment. To mitigate the negative impacts of graduation, particularly in cross-border trade, targeted policies must be developed. These should include granting SMEs greater access to Export Processing Zones (EPZs), thereby facilitating their smoother integration into global supply chains and boosting their competitiveness on the international stage.

It is crucial to assess whether the existing reform commissions have adequately addressed these priorities. The proposed consultative mechanism should design and implement targeted measures to fully capitalise on the opportunities presented by LDC graduation.

Muhammad Omar Faruque is a researcher in law.

Mohammed Abu Saleh is an international trade lawyer, who formerly worked with the WTO Secretariat in Geneva, Switzerland.​
 

Latest Tweets

Dogun18 Ghazi52 Dogun18 wrote on Ghazi52's profile.
Hello Mr. Legend!

Members Online

No members online now.

Latest Posts

Back