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[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

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[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy
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Bangladesh received $2.61b remittance in 29 days of April
UNB
Published :
May 03, 2025 23:13
Updated :
May 03, 2025 23:13

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Bangladesh received USD $2.61 billion in remittances in 29 days of the current month, April.

At the same period of the previous year, the expatriates sent $1.91 billion remittance.

According to the latest report of Bangladesh Bank, in the first 29 days of April, expatriates sent $2.61 billion in remittances. The remittance inward trend saw a growth of 36.6 per cent in 29 days of April 2025, compared with April 2024.

Bangladesh so far (till April 29) received $24.39 billion in remittances, which is already higher than what was received during the entire 2023-24 fiscal year.​
 

Balancing revenue goals and growth
Published :
May 04, 2025 00:20
Updated :
May 04, 2025 00:20

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As the government prepares the national budget for the upcoming fiscal year, its pre-budget consultation with trade bodies brought the longstanding issue of tax collection into sharp focus. This is unsurprising, given that businesses account for the majority of the country's revenue. The consultation took place against the backdrop of significant pressure on the National Board of Revenue (NBR) which has fallen short of its revenue collection target by Tk 650 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal year. This underperformance is particularly significant as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reportedly linked the release of pending tranches from its $4.7 billion loan package for Bangladesh to improved revenue performance, among other conditions. This has left the government caught between two opposing demands, one from tax authorities seeking tighter regulations to increase revenue, and the other from the business community calling for relief from tax burdens.

During the consultation hosted by the NBR and the FBCCI, business leaders from textiles, garments, steel and SME sectors detailed the various obstacles they face. They emphasised how escalating operational costs, driven by rising energy prices, bureaucratic delays and stringent tax regulations are stifling entrepreneurship, even in industries where the country holds a competitive advantage. The president of the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA), for instance, alleged that customs officials coerced businesses into paying bribes to release bank guarantees required for clearing goods at ports. Similarly, the president of the Steel Manufacturers Association cited bureaucratic inefficiencies as a major deterrent to investment, while the Meghna Group's chairman pointed to their $600 million investment in Cumilla EPZ lying underutilised due to two years of delays in securing utility connections. The concerns voiced by the business community are far from groundless. Their calls for policy consistency, reduced harassment and affordable utilities are not just requests for favours but essential prerequisites for industrial development. There can be no doubt that issues such as corruption and administrative bottlenecks not only inflate operational costs but also erode investor confidence and deter both domestic and foreign capital.

Seeking respite from current tax pressures, business leaders proposed several measures including raising the tax-free income threshold for individuals, reducing the source tax on all exports to 0.50 per cent, and establishing a uniform but lower VAT rate on local goods to support SMEs. While these proposals reflect the difficulties faced by businesses, the government has limited scope for concessions. The finance adviser present at the consultation rightly noted that significant tax relief is unfeasible given the country's growing deficits and debt obligations. With limited external borrowing options and development partners pushing for stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, the government has little fiscal freedom. In this context, the administration's cautious stance is understandable. That said, the government can and must address operational hurdles facing the private sector to improve the overall ease of doing business.

The government, therefore, faces a delicate and complex balancing act. A purely revenue-driven approach that overlooks the genuine challenges faced by businesses risks harming long-term economic growth and, ironically, future tax receipts. Conversely, excessive leniency could compromise essential revenue generation. As the saying goes, the art of taxation lies in plucking the goose so as to obtain the most feathers with the least hissing. The upcoming budget must reflect this wisdom by reducing structural barriers and cracking down on corruption, all the while meeting revenue targets without overburdening businesses. Only through such a balanced approach can the government sustain economic growth and secure the resources needed for national development.​
 

The political and economic reset process
Muhammad Mahmood
Published :
May 04, 2025 00:04
Updated :
May 04, 2025 00:04

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The collapse of the Sheikh Hasina regime and her hasty escape to India on August 5 last year were shocking in their speed but not surprising. She has been residing in New Delhi since the day she fled from Bangladesh. Also, on that day, one of India's geopolitical nightmares became a reality.

During her 15-year rule, India has enjoyed very close ties with her authoritarian regime. India greatly emboldened her to consolidate her repressive regime to achieve its objectives in Bangladesh. In fact, India's unqualified support for Hasina clearly demonstrates complicity.

India's over-investment in Hasina is not only very symptomatic of its hegemonic approach to its neighbours but also its lack of realisation that it is a poor country lacking economic strength to influence events in its neighbourhood, and geographic size alone cannot do the trick. About two-thirds of India's population has an annual income comparable to that of Sub-Saharan countries. In fact, India now has a strained relationship with all its neighbours except Bhutan.

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Since August 8 last year, an interim government led by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus has been in power in Dhaka. The government has been grappling with a host of challenges, from high inflation and unemployment to delays in implementing crucial reforms across the judiciary, political system, and economy. These challenges are primarily due to ongoing law and order issues, and there is a growing concern about the resurgence of the criminal syndicate run by ousted Hasina.

Many Bangladeshis view Hasina's downfall as a 'second liberation', a clear indication of the public's fervent desire for significant change. This sentiment was echoed by a student leader who described the revolution as a 'once in a lifetime opportunity' to bring about systemic change in the country's political system and culture. The public's appetite for change is palpable, and it is driving the current political momentum.

The deeper cause of the uprising was far broader than the removal of the job quota system in public service appointments. The discontent also extended to include failure to deal with untamed inflation and high and rising unemployment amid the Hasina regime's growing concentration of power and impunity. Yunus and his colleagues still have widespread support, but popular expectations are double-edged.

Bangladesh's democratic transition remains fragile, challenged by weak law enforcement and economic instability. Massive protest rallies and vigilante and reprisal attacks on the Hasina regime's supporters, including on collaborator newspapers and other media outlets along with collaborator journalists, signal a population that has learned the power of direct action. This amplifies the state's inability to address public grievances and the fact that the government is without full authority to effectively deal with collaborators of Hasina's criminal syndicate in the various branches of the government and the public and political arenas.

But even after eight months in power, there remains a mix of unease about the future and some optimism that Yunus can get the economy back on track while spearheading political reforms needed to rebuild a durable democratic system and prevent another dictator from emerging. It is a monumental challenge.

Historically, the military has played a significant role in Bangladesh's politics. The current situation, with its political instability, has raised concerns that the army may decide to take a more direct role in governance.

Also, the interim government so far has failed to effectively rebut a vigorous campaign of misinformation and disinformation originating from India on the plight of Hindus in Bangladesh, given that reprisal attacks on the Awami League (AL) (political arm of Hasina's criminal syndicate) supporters and the police also included many from the Hindu community who have traditionally been strong supporters of the AL. The fake news published in the Indian media on the plight of Hindus was aimed at inflaming anti-Muslim sentiment (which is the staple diet of the Hindu supremacist prime minister Narendra Modi and his party, BJP) in India and undermining Bangladesh's interim government.

India's supposedly secular constitution stands in complete contradiction to its treatment of minorities, especially Muslims. The ruling Hindu supremacist BJP oversees systemic marginalisation and discrimination against Indian Muslims who live under constant threat of violence. This hostility extends beyond online hate speech and manifests in real-life incidents. No government in Bangladesh ever highlighted this aspect of Hindutva India under the BJP rule, while India is falsely playing the Hindu card in Bangladesh, which has bipartisan support in India.

Till now, the political situation in Bangladesh remains fragile and fluid. Bangladesh is currently undergoing a period of political and economic reset under the leadership of Yunus following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina. Since August last year, the democratic process has taken the form of a series of reform commissions focusing on the constitution, election, public administration and anti-corruption, judiciary, police, media, industry and women's rights. An economic white paper committee was instituted to recommend institutional reforms needed to forestall the return of the authoritarian regime of the past.

While the economic white paper has delivered its first draft, other reports are coming out in a very slow motion, making it impossible to figure out the nature and the extent of reforms to take place and in what sequence these proposed reforms will be implemented. In resetting the political landscape, the Constitutional Reform Commission has proposed sweeping reforms to dismantle authoritarian legacies through bicameralism, term limits for the head of government, checks on executive power, and other reform measures to ensure long-term democratic stability. However, many are expressing concern that the interim government is being hemmed in by various political interests at home and abroad, and they are also worried that the pace of reforms has slowed down.

An election is expected to be held anytime between late 2025 and mid-2026, but strong voices are being raised to complete all reform programs before an election can take place, including a constituent assembly election to adopt the new constitution to precede before a general election to form a parliament. They also support the interim government headed by Yunus to continue for five years to complete the reform agenda. At this point, there appears to be significant support for this position than a hurried election which will likely bring the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to power, a party widely considered to be the other side of the same coin with the AL being on one side.

People supporting the 5-year tenure of the Yunus administration also point out that the interim government derives its real legitimacy from the popular mass support accorded to it in the wake of a mass uprising which overthrew the repressive government run by Hasina's criminal syndicate under the political banner of the AL.

Hasina has left behind a terrible economic mess that the interim government needs to deal with. Also, the corrupt and crony economic system that flourished under the Hasina regime has caused significant structural damage to the economy, creating a formidable challenge for the interim government. Her massive corruption involving mega-projects also extends to one of the biggest bank robberies in the history of central banks around the world in 2016, where US$101 million was transferred to different countries by hacking the central bank system. She, her family members and cronies have also embezzled from the banking system and then transferred an estimated amount of US$150 billion out of the country.

Bangladesh has achieved, as claimed, an annual average growth rate of about 6.5 per cent over the last decade and a half. However, the growth rate has slowed down considerably since the onset of the Pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The current macroeconomic crisis is manifested in slowing gross domestic product (GDP) growth, high inflation and unemployment, looming debt burden and a banking system in deep trouble. Multilateral and regional organisations such as the World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) all have downgraded Bangladesh's GDP growth rate for 2025 to 3.3 per cent, 3.76 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively. But they all provided a better growth forecast for 2026.

A large number of economic problems are systemic. Therefore, reforms are urgently needed to address systemic economic problems. Urgent actions needed include dealing with the problems facing the banking and finance sector, such as excessively high loan default rates, expanding the very low direct tax base, including increased compliance, and increasing economic openness to address the balance of payments and reserves problems as well as to attract foreign direct investment (FDI).

Many other economic issues also require attention. Poverty and unemployment are prevalent, along with a lack of attention to gender and environmental issues. About 40 per cent of the country's young population lacks reliable employment, and a balance-of-payments crisis looms large due to capital transfers out of the country made by the crony class, and this is directly related to high levels of political and bureaucratic corruption. However, the foreign reserves situation appears to be improving, but it is not yet at a sustainable level. The ready-made garments (RMG) industry made the country's fortune but has miserably failed to diversify beyond it, and the failure to diversify will prove very costly for the country's future.

Income inequality has steadily increased in Bangladesh, with the Gini coefficient, a measure of inequality, rising from 0.458 in 2010 to 0.50 in 2022. With rising income inequality coupled with stagnant to declining household income along with high levels of youth and graduate unemployment and very widespread underemployment clearly point out that whatever economic growth achieved so far, especially under the Hasina regime, cannot be considered as inclusive growth.

To escape poverty and squalor and to financially support families in Bangladesh, close to almost 10 million Bangladeshis are now living and working abroad. Annual remittances transferred to Bangladesh were $27 billion in 2024. The Bangladesh state has failed to provide employment at home for these people, rather encouraged and still encouraging people to seek employment in overseas countries. In their journey overseas to seek employment, quite often, these Bangladeshis land in countries with a serious lack of human rights with no labour rights or minimum wage guarantee.

The economic factor will ultimately be the key factor in the Yunus-led interim government's longevity. Now, to get the economy on a sustained growth trajectory, the interim administration must ensure political stability, law, and order, build enhanced state capacity, and improve governance. The government must provide a stable and predictable policy environment with a firm commitment to economic openness and growth. At the same time, the interim government must undertake required reform measures to attract investment, including FDI, with an emphasis on a fairer distribution of income unencumbered by the tentacles of bureaucracy, which need to be credibly put in check by political and legal institutions.​
 

ADB may back Bangladesh budget with IMF nod
Doulot Akter Mala from Milan, Italy
Published :
May 04, 2025 19:14
Updated :
May 04, 2025 20:12

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has signalled to consider a ‘letter of comfort’ from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to extend budget support for Bangladesh, said Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed.

ADB Vice President Yingming Yang said this in a meeting with the finance adviser on Sunday at the 58th ADB annual meeting sideline events in Milan, Italy.

Talking to the FE, at the meeting premises, Dr Salehduddin said signing an agreement with the IMF may not be so important if the ADB gets a green signal from the IMF on the macroeconomic stability of Bangladesh.

The finance adviser said as the IMF does the due diligence on macroeconomic issues, its positive signal is important for budget support of the ADB.

“The scope of a soft landing has already been squeezed gradually as we have exhausted it,” he said.

Bangladesh has proposed to go for Ordinary Capital Resources (OCR), but ADB found it has limited scope as other countries are also demanding the same, he added.

Still, the ADB high-ups have assured us to consider the proposal, added Dr Salehuddin.

“We told the ADB that our negotiation with the IMF is going on and about to reach a decision,” he added.

ADB wants Bangladesh to sort out the IMF issues, said the adviser.

“We won’t rush to signing an agreement accepting the IMF’s loan conditions,” said the finance adviser.

Bangladesh’s economic condition has improved in the last four months; its banking fundamentals and private sector have improved, he added.

ADB wants to support our infrastructural development besides budget support, the FA said.

It also wants to help us with reforms, banking and project support.

“We will be able to present a manageable, realistic budget,” he said, adding that the economy has the strength in case of non-availability of budget support from the IMF.​
 

Remittance inflow rises by 34.6pc in April
FE Online Desk
Published :
May 04, 2025 18:00
Updated :
May 04, 2025 18:00

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The country’s remittance inflow witnessed a remarkable year-on-year growth of 34.6 percent, reaching US$2,752 million in April.

According to the latest data of Bangladesh Bank (BB), the country logged a total of $2,044 million in remittances during the same period last year, reports BSS.

Expatriates have sent remittances of $24,537 million during the July-April (2024-25) of the current fiscal year, which was only $19,119 million during the same period of the previous fiscal year.​
 

Bangladesh deepens cooperation with key international financial partners: Finance ministry
FE ONLINE REPORT
Published :
May 05, 2025 17:23
Updated :
May 05, 2025 17:23

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Bangladesh is deepening cooperation with key international financial partners through high-level bilateral meetings, the finance ministry said Monday.

On the sidelines of the 58th Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Italy, Bangladesh has strengthened its development cooperation with key international financial partners through high-level bilateral meetings, says a press release.

Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed on Monday held a bilateral meeting with Nadia Calvino, president of the European Investment Bank (EIB).

The meeting focused on expanding EIB’s ongoing support in Bangladesh’s priority sectors.

The EIB, the primary lending institution of the European Union (EU), has been engaged in Bangladesh since 2000 under a framework agreement with the Government of Bangladesh.

To date, EIB has invested nearly 635 million euro in six ongoing projects across the health, water supply, transport, and communication sectors.

Although its core focus is on EU member states, the EIB plays a vital role in EU development cooperation with over 160 countries worldwide, particularly in areas such as climate action, innovation, infrastructure, SMEs, and skill development, the press release said.

The EIB has committed to providing 350 million euro in framework loans to support renewable energy projects in Bangladesh.

The EU will also contribute an additional 45 million euro in grant funding. These projects are aimed at enhancing environmental sustainability and contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation, aligning with Bangladesh’s sustainable development goals.

During the discussion, the finance adviser emphasised the urgent need for greater investment in human capital development and infrastructure to address the dual challenges of graduating from Least Developed Country (LDC) status and avoiding the middle-income trap.

He called on the EU and its institutions to provide enhanced concessional or subsidised financing in strategic sectors critical to Bangladesh’s development trajectory.

The finance adviser also held a bilateral meeting with representatives of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC).

JBIC has long been a valued partner in Bangladesh’s development journey through financing and strategic collaboration. Its investments include the DAP-II Fertiliser Plant ($715.6 million, now fully repaid), the Ghorasal Fertiliser Plant, and the Meghnaghat Power Plant ($265 million, co-financed with ADB).

Additionally, the Bangladesh delegation held bilateral meetings with Yingming Yang, Vice President (South, Central, and West Asia) of ADB, the Vice President of the OPEC Fund, and Michael Kremer, Vice President of the Agriculture Innovation Mechanism for Scale (AIM for Scale). In these meetings, issues of mutual interest were discussed by both parties.

These engagements emphasise Bangladesh’s commitment to deepening strategic partnerships with key global financial institutions to accelerate sustainable and inclusive growth.​
 

GED projects gradual economic recovery for Bangladesh
Published :
May 07, 2025 18:46
Updated :
May 07, 2025 18:46

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The General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission has projected a gradual economic recovery for Bangladesh, buoyed by favorable trends in exports, remittances, a stable exchange rate, and easing inflationary pressures.

In its April 2025 Economic Update and Outlook, GED noted that improved investors’ confidence-particularly following the successful Bangladesh Investment Summit 2025-along with a moderately tight but accommodative monetary policy, is expected to further support industrial growth, reports BSS.

“Economic recovery is expected to be bolstered by a favorable external sector with positive exports and remittances growth, a stable exchange rate and declining inflationary pressures,” said the GED outlook.

The report highlighted the need to reduce commercial lending interest rates to stimulate investment. GED emphasised the importance of tackling non-performing loans and boosting banking sector efficiency to improve access to credit.

It also stressed the government’s ongoing efforts toward fiscal consolidation, which are expected to strengthen fiscal accounts. “Enhancing efficiency in the selection of development projects-prioritizing sustainability-will increase the prospects for quality growth,” the report added.

While inflation is expected to remain stable between 8.0% and 9.0% during April and May 2025, it remains a concern. Food inflation, which surged to 10.65% in FY2023-24, eased to 8.93% in March 2025 after the availability of winter vegetables improved supply.

Key contributors to overall inflation in March included rice (14.62%), fish (11.58%), and vegetables (6.08%). Notably, the prices of brinjal (17.12%), medium rice (16.73%), and hilsa (11.37%) drove up food costs-partly due to seasonal demand during Ramadan and the Bengali New Year.

However, rural areas continue to face higher inflation, highlighting the need for more efficient food supply chain management.

Bangladesh’s external sector showed signs of strength in March 2025, with remittances reaching a record $3.29 billion-up 65% year-on-year-boosted by Eid-related transfers and a shift to formal remittance channels following regulatory tightening.

From July 2024 to March 2025, total remittances climbed to $21.77 billion, compared to $16.69 billion during the same period of the previous year. Foreign exchange reserves rose accordingly, now standing at approximately $25.62 billion.

Exports also saw an 11.44% year-on-year increase, reaching $4.25 billion, largely driven by the readymade garment sector.

Bangladesh’s immediate positive response to Trump’s reciprocal tariff has worked well and brought a sigh of relief for exporters.

Bangladesh’s diplomatic engagement with the U.S. over reciprocal tariffs has resulted in a temporary reprieve, with the country agreeing to increase imports of American agricultural products.

Despite external gains, investment activity remains subdued. In February 2025, deposit growth slowed to 7.88%, while private sector credit growth was just 7.15%-among the lowest in recent years.

Contributing factors included high lending rates, political and economic uncertainty, and weakened bank health, with around 10 banks seeing diminished lending capacity due to irregularities. Increased government borrowing from commercial banks-up 60% year-on-year-has further strained private sector credit availability.

In March, the Taka traded within a narrow band of Tk 121.5755-121.9542 per U.S. dollar, reflecting relative exchange rate stability despite growing demand for LCs and foreign currency.

Remittances helped stabilize the currency, with the improved foreign reserve position enhancing the outlook for the external sector.

After a weak first quarter, with GDP growing just 1.96% due to industrial slowdown and floods affecting agriculture, the second quarter of FY2025 saw a rebound to 4.48%.

Growth was driven largely by the industrial sector, which grew 7.1% in Q2, led by manufacturing (8.49%), mining, and quarrying (8.01%), and wholesale and retail trade (6.63%).

While the economic recovery is underway, GED underscores the need for accelerated reforms, investment stimulation, and structural improvements to sustain the momentum.​
 

Inflation drops from 14.5pc to 8.5pc in 9 months: BB Governor Mansur
UNB
Published :
May 08, 2025 19:17
Updated :
May 08, 2025 19:17

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Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur on Thursday said that the country's inflation rate has dropped significantly – from 14.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent-over the past nine months.

The governor made the remarks while speaking as the chief guest at the opening ceremony of the Banker SME Women Entrepreneurs' Gathering, Product Exhibition and Fair, held at the Bangla Academy premises in the capital.

He expressed optimism that inflation could fall further by 4.0 to 5.0 percentage points if the government maintains consistent efforts and stable policies.

The SME and Special Programmes Department of Bangladesh Bank organised the event.

According to the latest estimates from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), overall inflation stood at 9.17 per cent in April, down from 9.35 per cent in March. Both food and non-food inflation declined last month. However, the average annual inflation remains above 10 per cent.

Bangladesh Bank Deputy Governor Nurun Nahar, Executive Director Md Khasru Parvez, City Bank MD and CEO Masrur Arefin, and Naushad Mostafa, Director of the SME and Special Programs Department, also spoke at the event.

"If we keep printing money and expect inflation to drop, that won't work. We need to adopt a strict stance. Inflation will take time to ease, but it is on the right track and will continue to decline gradually." Governor Mansur said.

Referring to the current figures, he said, "Food inflation was at 14.5 per cent, which has now come down to 8.5 per cent. Non-food inflation, which was over 12.5 per cent, is now slightly above 9.0 per cent."

"I am hopeful that it will fall further. If we maintain policy stability and put in the effort, reducing inflation to 4.0 to 5.0 per cent is achievable – and that would be a satisfactory outcome for all," he added.

Addressing gender disparities in financial access, Dr Mansur said women are still not receiving their rightful share of banking services.

"Women are getting only 6.0 per cent of total disbursed loans in the banking sector. This is far from realistic. There are many obstacles for women in accessing loans. We must find ways to overcome these and move women forward. Financial awareness among women also needs to improve," he said.

The governor went on to say, "We are committed to supporting women entrepreneurs, but not merely by expanding central bank funds, as that would require creating new money. Instead, commercial banks must lend from their own resources, recognising women's rights in financial inclusion."

The ongoing four-day fair, organised by Bangladesh Bank to boost the participation of women entrepreneurs, will run until May 11. A total of 68 women entrepreneurs from various districts are showcasing their products at the event.

On the final day, six women entrepreneurs will be honoured for their achievements.​
 

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