[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

[Saif]

Reserves drop to $19.7b after ACU payment

Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves fell from $21.39 billion to $19.7 billion yesterday after the country paid $1.75 billion in regional import bills through the Asian Clearing Union (ACU).

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Reserves drop to $19.7b after ACU payment

Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves fell from $21.39 billion to $19.7 billion yesterday after the country paid $1.75 billion in regional import bills through the Asian Clearing Union (ACU).

The ACU, a Tehran-based organisation, facilitates payment settlements among nine member countries: India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Iran, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

Under the ACU mechanism, Bangladesh clears its import bills every two months, leading to a temporary decline in reserves after each payment.

As of March 6, the country's forex reserves stood at $21.39 billion, calculated in accordance with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) BPM6 manual.

Due to a growing trend in remittance inflows in recent months, the central bank has been able to mitigate the sharp decline in forex reserves, particularly since the end of the Awami League-led government's regime on August 5 in the face of mass uprising.

Last month, remittance inflows to Bangladesh rose 25 percent year-on-year to $2.52 billion as migrant Bangladeshi workers sent larger-than-expected amounts to their families back home for Ramadan-related purchases and Eid shopping.​

 

[Saif]

Govt releases Tk 10b incentives for exporters

The government has released Tk 10 billion as cash incentive for the country's exporters, according to sources. It offers such incentive and cash subsidy against export earnings. Finance Division issued an order to this end on March 05. It is the third instalment of the export incentive allocated

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Govt releases Tk 10b incentives for exporters
FE Report
Published :
Mar 10, 2025 08:58
Updated :
Mar 10, 2025 08:58

The government has released Tk 10 billion as cash incentive for the country's exporters, according to sources.

It offers such incentive and cash subsidy against export earnings.

Finance Division issued an order to this end on March 05.

It is the third instalment of the export incentive allocated in the current financial year, 2004-25, for export sectors.

Finance Division has set certain conditions, including providing the amount to different banks and export sectors, for receiving such assistance.

Besides, the banks concerned cannot use the fund for other purposes.

The parties concerned (banks, incentive receivers) should follow the existing policy strictly, otherwise legal action would be taken for non-compliance.

The Office of the Controller General of Accounts will announce the debit authority regarding the issue soon.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) will provide the incentive as per the demand by the respective banks for making payments to the exporters concerned.

Export-oriented sectors like ready-made garment, frozen shrimp and other fish, leather items, jute and jute products enjoy such incentives, according to an official order of the Finance Division issued recently.

Meanwhile, a special 1.0-per cent cash incentive support fund for the apparel industry has also been included in the instalment.

The government reduced rates of cash incentives against exports for all 43 categories up to 50 per cent for fiscal year 2024-25.​

 

[Saif]

BB relaxes loan exit policy for troubled businesses

Bangladesh Bank (BB) today relaxed the down payment requirements for exit facilities on defaulted loans of closed or loss-incurring companies.

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BB relaxes loan exit policy for troubled businesses

The Bangladesh Bank headquarters in Dhaka. Photo: Star/File

Bangladesh Bank (BB) today relaxed the down payment requirements for exit facilities on defaulted loans of closed or loss-incurring companies.

The central bank issued a notice in this regard.

From now on, such applications can be made with only 5 percent down payment on the existing loan balance, which was previously at 10 percent.

The notice said the management authority can now approve exit facilities for loans up to Tk 20 lakh whereas previously it was Tk 10 lakh.

Loans exceeding this amount will need approval from the board.

Bangladesh Bank on July 08 last year introduced an exit policy for businesses, industries, or projects that were established on loans but have shut down or are incurring losses due to uncontrollable factors.

The policy aimed to recover such loans within a maximum of three years through measures including interest waivers and other facilities.

Loans availing the exit facility will continue to be classified as defaulted until fully recovered.

Some modifications have been brought about in the policy, further relaxing the conditions. The revised policy states that loans availing the exit facility cannot be rescheduled or restructured.​

 

[Saif]

No action taken based on white paper: economist

The interim government has not taken any of the measures recommended by the White Paper on the state of the economy and the task force, even after a long time since the report's submission, said an economist yesterday.

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No action taken based on white paper: economist

Selim Raihan. Photo is taken from his Facebook page.

The interim government has not taken any of the measures recommended by the White Paper on the state of the economy and the task force, even after a long time since the report's submission, said an economist yesterday.

"We are yet to see any progress or discussion inside the government about the White Paper and the task force's recommendations," said Prof Selim Raihan, a member of the both White Paper and Task Force.

"Even the interim government didn't ask us (panel members) to explain what we had written or recommended," said Prof. Raihan, also the executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem).

He made the comments at a seminar titled "Unveiling the Truth: The State of Bangladesh's Economy and Governance," held at the University of Dhaka's Economics Department. The event, organised by the Economics Study Center, was attended by nearly a hundred students.

On 28 August, a 12-member committee was formed, was given three months to prepare the report, submitted on December 01, which aims to provide a clearer picture of the economy.

"There was a significant opportunity for the government to engage with panel members, who are among the country's top economists," said Prof. Raihan.

He further noted that various institutions and ministries could have implemented the recommendations relevant to their respective sectors, but no such steps have been taken.

He believes the interim government could adopt some of the recommendations, setting a precedent for the next political government to build upon and implement them further.

Besides, the taskforce report called "Re-strategising the Economy and Mobilising Resources for Equitable and Sustainable Development" was submitted January 30 to the Chief Adviser.

Prof Raihan said the Awami League government took on many projects without conducting proper feasibility studies, causing great losses for the country.

"Many projects lack proper feasibility studies. Even when studies were conducted, they were often flawed and overestimated," he said.

He also gave examples of Chattogram's Karnaphuli Tunnel, the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project, and the Dhaka-Chattogram Highway.

Regarding Sri Lanka's financial recovery, Prof. Raihan said their central bank was free from political interference, which helped them recover quickly from the economic crisis.

Denouncing Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H. Mansur's recent comments on the International Monetary Fund—that Bangladesh does not need IMF funds if it can generate adequate revenue.

"If it happens, that's fair and good. But I fear that we're going to walk away from reform again," said Prof Raihan.​

 

[Saif]

Revenue Tk 52,000cr short of IMF target for Jul-Dec

Revenue collection fell significantly short of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) target in the first six months of the current fiscal year, with the floor for the fourth instalment of an ongoing $4.7 billion loan programme proving too ambitious.

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Revenue Tk 52,000cr short of IMF target for Jul-Dec

Revenue collection fell significantly short of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) target in the first six months of the current fiscal year, with the floor for the fourth instalment of an ongoing $4.7 billion loan programme proving too ambitious.

The government raised Tk 162,892 crore in total revenue, including from both National Board of Revenue (NBR) and non-NBR sources, according to finance ministry data, missing the IMF's target to collect Tk 215,120 crore by Tk 52,228 crore.

Bangladesh needed to achieve 34 percent growth in tax collection to meet the goal set in the current fiscal year's budget, meaning it was always going to be an uphill battle.

The revenue collection remained largely static compared to the Tk 162,262 crore recorded during the same period of the preceding year, reflecting sluggish growth.

According to finance ministry data, the NBR collected Tk 159,137 crore in the first six months of FY25, a marginal increase from the Tk 158,482 crore collected in the same period of the year prior.

However, the contribution from non-NBR sources declined slightly to Tk 3,755 crore from Tk 3,780 crore in the same period.

Although only around 50 percent of its non-NBR revenue collection target could be met last fiscal year, the Awami League government fixed an ambitious target for the current fiscal year before being ousted by a mass uprising in August last year.

The IMF was supposed to disburse the fourth instalment in February this year but deferred it to June, according to government officials.

A review mission from the IMF will visit Bangladesh next month.

Finance ministry officials said some prior actions required from the Bangladesh Bank and the NBR were not implemented, which resulted in the deferred disbursement. The prior actions were outlined by a review mission in December last year.

Until now, tax collection targets have not been included as a quantitative performance criterion (QPC), a mandatory benchmark that Bangladesh must meet to unlock IMF loan instalments.

However, during the December visit, the IMF mission indicated that they would make tax collection a QPC, increasing pressure on the government to strengthen revenue generation efforts.

QPCs are a kind of monitoring process of the IMF and if someone demands a waiver from the target, then they need the executive board's approval.

As of now, it remains an indicative target, meaning any breach can be discussed and sorted out through talks between officials.

Former NBR chairman Muhammad Abdul Majid said the IMF made an ambitious target without taking reality into account.

"The government should not agree to such targets," he said, adding that the government must increase tax collections.

He said the NBR itself is responsible for not expanding the revenue collection as they don't want to encourage reforms.

Nasiruddin Ahmed, another former NBR chairman, criticised the IMF's revenue target, arguing that it was not based on realistic assessments.

"The IMF target was based on unrealistic estimates, not reality," he said.

Nasiruddin also pointed to "structural and policy problems" within the NBR that continue to hinder tax collection. Without full automation, he warned, the NBR cannot boost revenue collection effectively.

He further said that, given the existing inefficiencies in the tax system, the government should not have agreed to the IMF's "ambitious revenue target in the first place".

Following the visit in December, the IMF mission stressed the need to rationalise tax exemptions, improve compliance, and separate tax policy from tax administration to create a more efficient revenue collection system.

Despite previous commitments to improve tax compliance and expand the tax base, Bangladesh's revenue collection remains stagnant, raising concerns about its ability to meet future fiscal targets.

Economists stress that a failure to implement these long-pending reforms could further complicate the country's economic challenges, including high inflation, exchange rate volatility and external debt repayment pressures.​

 

[Saif]

Policy gaps hinder SDG progress: experts

Despite progress in corporate social responsibility (CSR) and green initiatives, systemic barriers, poor policy alignment, and a lack of effective public-private collaboration continue to hinder Bangladesh’s achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), experts said.

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Policy gaps hinder SDG progress: experts

Despite progress in corporate social responsibility (CSR) and green initiatives, systemic barriers, poor policy alignment, and a lack of effective public-private collaboration continue to hinder Bangladesh's achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), experts said.

"Adopting a sustainable business model without creating a favourable business environment for the private sector would be contradictory," said Debapriya Bhattacharya, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

He made the remarks while summarising discussions among business leaders during a consultation on the "National SDG Report (NVR) 2025: Perspectives of Business Leaders," organised by the Citizen's Platform for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Bangladesh, at the Bangladesh-China Friendship Exhibition Centre in the capital's Agargaon yesterday.

Bhattacharya emphasised that Bangladesh's investment climate must be improved, with greater support from government officials, to establish a sustainable business model.

He also stressed the importance of transparent monitoring platforms to assess advancements in sustainability and highlighted that ethical leadership is crucial for development.

Additionally, he called for institutionalised monitoring and evaluation at the policy level to ensure transparency.

Regarding CSR and policy implementation, Bhattacharya advocated for better organisation of CSR funding in Bangladesh.

He suggested tax incentives to promote corporate contributions but cautioned against tax evasion.

Bhattacharya also noted that policymakers often lack awareness of CSR and sustainable economics, calling for training.

He concluded by saying that effective public-private collaboration and strong leadership are essential for building a sustainable economy in Bangladesh.

Asif Ibrahim, vice-chairman of NewAge Group of Industries, said they began working on SDG-related initiatives in 2017 by raising awareness about the significant role of the private sector.

He stated that SDG financing cannot be solely managed by the government or international organisations and that the private sector must play an active role.

After the Rana Plaza collapse, reforms took place in Bangladesh's readymade garments sector, but mapping remained incomplete, he noted.

According to Ibrahim, sustainable business financing can happen in three ways: impact investments, cost-effective investments, and CSR initiatives.

He stressed that financial policies must be more accessible for entrepreneurs to support SDG implementation and that collaboration between stakeholders is essential for progress.

Md Fazlul Hoque, a former president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said Bangladesh leads globally in environmentally friendly garment factories, with around 250 green factories, including 90 that are platinum-rated.

However, he said this achievement lacks global recognition.

He emphasised that Bangladesh ensures world-class workplace safety and is among the top in decent, safe, and secure workplaces, yet international promotion remains weak.

"The key challenge is proper branding and recognition. Despite a sustainable production system, the Rana Plaza tragedy still affects the industry's image," he said.

He stressed the need for joint efforts from Bangladesh Bank, government policies, and private initiatives to enhance global visibility.

"Global partnership is essential for correctly representing Bangladesh's garment industry," he added.

Shamima Zaman, executive director of Global Compact Network Bangladesh, emphasised Bangladesh's need for global recognition in sustainability.

She highlighted Bangladesh's progress in CSR and sustainable business but stressed gaps in branding and implementation.

While many companies practice CSR, it remains on an ad-hoc basis, and public banks lag in CSR initiatives despite government incentives, she said.

She urged better reporting, stocktaking, and alignment with SDGs.

According to her, collaboration among the private sector, public institutions, and civil society is essential for effective CSR and long-term growth.

Kamran Tanvirur Rahman, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka, said that stimulus packages are not reaching their intended targets.

He noted that many of these packages are not designed for export-oriented sectors, which are crucial for economic growth.

Rahman stressed the importance of aligning policies with real-life situations, as without proper alignment, implementation becomes ineffective.

He highlighted the need for a clear roadmap for implementing policies related to SDGs and called for better coordination between the corporate sector and the government.

Rahman also underlined the need for a solid legal framework to facilitate meaningful changes, especially for businesses working in the social impact sector.

The session was moderated by Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the CPD, with contributions from Shihab Quader, director general (SDG Affairs), and Anowarul Huq, assistant resident representative at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bangladesh.​

 

[Saif]

Economic state is very fragile, says new special assistant to CA

Anisuzzaman Chowdhury, special assistant to the Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus on the finance ministry, has said the country's economy is "very fragile" and getting out of this phase will be the priority of his work. While speaking to journalists at the Secretariat on Tuesday for the first time afte

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Economic state is very fragile, says new special assistant to CA
bdnews24.com
Published :
Mar 11, 2025 21:13
Updated :
Mar 11, 2025 21:13

Anisuzzaman Chowdhury, special assistant to the Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus on the finance ministry, has said the country's economy is "very fragile" and getting out of this phase will be the priority of his work.

While speaking to journalists at the Secretariat on Tuesday for the first time after taking charge as a special assistant in the rank of a state minister, the professor of Macroeconomic Policy & Development Division at Australia’s Western Sydney University, said: "The state of the economy is very fragile. There's no opportunity to say much more.

“The chief advisor compared the economy with Gaza City yesterday. The hint is enough to understand the circumstances.”

Highlighting that everything in the economy, including investment and employment, is connected, he said: "You call a government interim. This word itself is problematic for investment.

“An investor will think about the sustainability of these interim policies before investing as politics and economics are interlinked."

STOLEN MONEY WILL BE BACK

Commenting that it is possible to bring back the laundered money, Anisuzzaman said: "It is very possible. You'll just be strong. Many have offered to return the money. Our biggest asset is the chief advisor.

"The countries where the money has gone are the beneficiaries. There is international law, and since they are the beneficiaries, they will not leave it easily. But they are offering to help the chief advisor in this regard. We are working very fast. I hope we succeed."

Asked who had made the proposal, he said: "It is not possible to say as we need to maintain confidentiality to avoid problems at work.

"There are legal issues here, proper laws have to be made in line with the relevant country. There are several ways here. We have international cooperation in this area. Many, including the World Bank, are working."

Noting that various development data of Bangladesh are not reliable, the former professor said, Bangladesh has not provided trade data to the UN since 2015. The data is crucial to prevent money laundering through misinvoicing in global trade.”

Speaking about his priority in the field of work, Anisuzzaman said: "Some work has to be done on the development narrative that has been created for LDC graduation on the basis of fake information.

“The foreign debt has gone above $100 billion. The growth rate of external debt has increased significantly since 2010. At the same time, domestic resource mobilisation has been greatly reduced.

“At one time, 'our' tax to GDP ratio was 11/12 percent. Now it's down to 7 percent. So I have to focus on internal resource management. We also need to shed light on the stock market."​

 

[Saif]

Trade with China and India: is there any shift?

Whether the political change in Bangladesh on August 5 has made an impact on the country's bilateral trade with India is a matter of discussion for understandable reasons. The media has already shed light on the matter, linking it with the deterioration of overall bilateral relations between the tw

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Trade with China and India: is there any shift?
Asjadul Kibria
Published :
Mar 15, 2025 23:29
Updated :
Mar 15, 2025 23:29

Whether the political change in Bangladesh on August 5 has made an impact on the country's bilateral trade with India is a matter of discussion for understandable reasons. The media has already shed light on the matter, linking it with the deterioration of overall bilateral relations between the two countries. In the discussion, the trend of bilateral trade with China has also emerged as an important factor. Some are eager to show that the country's bilateral trade with China is rising as it is declining with India after the ouster of the Hasina regime through a mass uprising led by students.

There is no doubt that India heavily backed the Hasina regime. Bangladesh's closest and biggest neighbour has also supported the now-ousted regime since 2009. The regime's fall is considered a setback for New Delhi, which is yet to accept the new reality in Bangladesh. India's unwillingness to accept the new reality in Bangladesh is clear. The strong allegation is also there that the BJP-led Indian government is trying to destabilise the interim government through various means. Indian media is also continuously spreading misinformation and disinformation against Bangladesh, adding fuel to anti-India sentiment.

On the other hand, Beijing signals its readiness to work with Bangladesh despite the changes, which is a promising development that is making China more popular with most Bangladeshis. There is also a move to enhance bilateral trade, which is reflected in a further increase in imports from China, marking a potential invigoration of Bangladesh economy.

Bilateral trade with India has increased significantly in the last decade with some fluctuations. Gone are the days when the trade deficit with India was a matter of disappointment. Bangladesh continues to source various raw materials and intermediate goods from the neighbouring country mainly due to geographical proximity and historical links. Bangladesh is also used to import food items and consumer goods from India. The major import items include textiles and textile articles, vegetable products, prepared foodstuffs, products of the chemical or allied industries, mineral products, machinery and mechanical appliances, electrical equipment, etc, to meet domestic demands.

Nevertheless, the size of Bangladesh's economy has been continuously growing over the decades. So, higher and diverse demand for various products and items has gradually made China the main import source. Currently, around one-fourth of the country's total imports are sourced from China, and this is not a unique feature for Bangladesh. Today, one-tenth of global imports are sourced from China. The United States of America (USA) is ahead of China, supplying around 13 per cent of global imports. Though India is the eighth top global importer, it still provides less than three per cent of global imports of goods.

The rise of China as a global export powerhouse started to become evident at the beginning of the current century. However, the background work was done more than three decades before that. During the 1970s, China started a set of reforms to transform its economy from a communist model to a market economy mixed with socialism. So, the country also started to open up to the world gradually. At that time, China's share of global trade was less than one percent.

During the first decade of the current century, two critical events pushed China to become a global manufacturing powerhouse. One is the emergence of global value chains (GVCs), a system where different stages of production are spread across different countries to take advantage of their unique strengths, and another is China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Using the leverage of intertwined events, China has become a global trade giant at a rapid pace that no country has been able to attain so far. India was far behind in this regard due to the country's slow pace of trade liberalisation coupled with inadequate reforms to transfer it into a full-fledged market economy.

Bangladesh's bilateral trade with China started to surge at the beginning of the second decade of the current century. Though China offers flexible market access, Bangladesh has yet to tap it for various reasons, so the country's exports to China have yet to reach the $1 billion level. But, imports from China continued to grow, ballooning the trade deficit with the world's second-biggest economy. In the last fiscal year (FY24), Bangladesh's trade deficit with China reached around $16 billion. In contrast, the trade deficit with India was recorded at $7.44 billion.

Undoubtedly, intensified anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh cast a shadow on bilateral trade to some extent. As reported in some media, the country's imports from India have declined following the call for boycotting Indian products. After the 12th national parliament election in January last year, in which Hasina secured a fourth term while the opposition boycotted the polls, a massive 'India Out' campaign was launched as a protest against India's interference in Bangladesh politics. The campaign forced many stores to remove Indian goods from shelves. During the July uprising, a period of significant civil unrest, anger against India intensified for its persistent backing of Hasian's oppressive move to curb the protest movement. After the fall of Hasina, anti-Indian sentiment burst across the country, which is also reflected in the reduction of imports from India, according to some media reports. These reports also linked the rise in imports from China with the decline in imports from India last year.

It is, however, not easy to suddenly change the source of import on a large scale, as finding the alternative source requires some time. Statistics available from Bangladesh Bank showed that imports from India increased by 15 per cent in the last quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of 2023. At the same time, imports from China increased by 6.60 per cent.

Looking at the decade-long data provides more insights into the rise in imports from China than India. In FY10, imports from China accounted for around 55 per cent of combined imports from China and India. The ratio increased to 60 per cent in FY20 and further increased to 67 per cent in the first half of FY25. It means there is a linear trend, with some fluctuations in imports from China and India. Again, the ratio of imports from China was 26 per cent of the total imports in Bangladesh in FY23, which increased to 26.31 per cent in FY24 and 28.32 per cent in the first half of FY25. The ratio of imports from India was 13.90 per cent in FY23, which also increased to 14.23 per cent in FY24 but dropped slightly to 14 per cent in the first half of FY25.

Thus, the latest fluctuation in imports from India is not entirely linked to the deterioration of the bilateral relation, which is also reflected in the export trend. According to Bangladesh Bank statistics, Bangladesh exports to India increased to $502 million in the last quarter of 2024 from $391.20 million in the third quarter of the last year. At the same time, exports to China increased to $171.40 million from $155.80 million respectively. So, the buzz that the Indo-Bangla trade is shifting fast to the Sino-Bangla trade is misleading.​

 

[Saif]

CPD wants budget anchored in economic stability

Restoring macroeconomic stability should be the top priority for policymakers amid a challenging environment for the interim government, the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) wrote in its budget recommendations yesterday.

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CPD wants budget anchored in economic stability

Restoring macroeconomic stability should be the top priority for policymakers amid a challenging environment for the interim government, the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) wrote in its budget recommendations yesterday.

"This requires targeted interventions to address inflationary pressures, stabilise the exchange rate, and ensure fiscal prudence," it said.

The think-tank presented its recommendations for the upcoming national budget for fiscal year (FY) 2025-26 at the CPD office in Dhaka.

The CPD said that the interim government inherited an economy characterised by high inflation, subdued revenue collection, sluggish budget implementation, a liquidity crunch in the banking sector, and fast-depleting foreign exchange reserves.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the CPD, remarked, "The upcoming budget must prioritise the protection of vulnerable and disadvantaged groups and economic recovery.

"Short-term corrective actions are needed, along with medium-term reforms in resource mobilisation, public finance management, and spending efficiency," she said.

DO NOT HIKE GAS PRICES

The CPD proposed not hiking gas prices, saying it would adversely impact the inflation scenario -- particularly concerning non-food items.

The warning was sounded as consumer prices, despite easing in the last two months, have stayed over 9 percent since March of 2023, eroding purchasing power, especially for low-income households.

Last month, the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission proposed increasing gas prices for new industries to Tk 75.72 per cubic metre, up from the current Tk 30, which drew widespread opposition.

"At this stage, if the proposal to hike gas prices is accepted, it will likely impact inflation adversely. The uncertainty in the global economy owing to the tariff war might add to this," Fahmida added.

The Bangladesh Bank's target to contain inflation within a 7-8 percent range by end-June 2025 is likely to be missed if gas prices are raised, she said.

RAISE TAX-FREE INCOME LIMIT TO TK 4 LAKH

The CPD also recommended raising the tax-free income threshold to Tk 4 lakh in the next fiscal year's budget to ease the burden on taxpayers amid high inflation.

Currently, the tax-free income threshold stands at Tk 3.50 lakh, which was set in the current fiscal year.

"Inflation eased in the last three months, perhaps due to the seasonal effects and policy intervention. However, it rose earlier in the current fiscal year. Furthermore, food inflation rates were substantially greater in rural areas than in cities," Fahmida said.

"People are depleting their savings to buy food. In this situation, we believe it [raising the floor] will be logical."

ALLOCATE BUDGET FOR JULY UPRISING INJURED AND MARTYRS

The CPD recommended allocating financial assistance in the upcoming national budget to support the families of those killed and injured in the July uprising last year, which led to the ouster of the Awami League government.

"During the July movement, nearly 1,400 people were killed, and 14,025 others were injured," said Khatun, citing reports from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

"It is crucial to allocate funds for these individuals and their families."

The think tank also urged the interim government to introduce a scholarship programme to finance the education of those injured or disabled during the uprising until they complete their undergraduate degrees.

OVERHAUL NBR, REVISE VAT CUTS

The CPD also called for reforms to the National Board of Revenue (NBR), including developing a modern tax structure, digitisation, creating a consistent tax policy, and establishing a hassle-free tax payment system.

Besides, the CPD recommended withdrawing a 5 percent value-added tax (VAT) on tuition fees for English-medium schools.

Furthermore, CPD suggested exempting all taxes on imported books.

It also proposed reducing the corporate tax rate for private universities, medical colleges, dental colleges, engineering colleges, and institutions offering information technology education from the existing 15 percent to 10 percent.

TRUMP'S TARIFF WAR WON'T HELP BANGLADESH

At the event, Prof Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow of the CPD, rejected the notion that Donald Trump's return to power and his tariff policies would open new export opportunities for Bangladesh.

Instead, he cautioned that Bangladesh's export prospects could become "constrained and stagnant".

"There is an assumption that the tariffs on China could benefit Bangladesh, as we are competitors in the US market," Rahman said.

"However, after the US imposed a 25 percent tariff on China in 2016, our exports to the US initially declined, despite a rebound this year. So, I don't believe there is a direct benefit for us," he added.

One key reason is that China's ready-made garment (RMG) exports to the US largely consist of man-made fibre garments rather than cotton-based products.

"In contrast, Bangladesh's RMG exports are almost entirely cotton-based. Therefore, in the market segment where China faces tariffs, Bangladesh does not directly compete with them.

"It is crucial to recognise the diversity within the RMG sector when analysing these trends," he said.

Secondly, various economists have pointed out that the tariff war initiated by Trump could have a negative impact on global economic growth, including that of the United States, Rahman said.

"A slowdown in US economic growth would reduce consumer demand and contribute to inflation, ultimately leading to a decline in overall import demand," he said.

For export-dependent countries like Bangladesh, this means that demand for products in the US market could also be negatively affected.

This ongoing global tariff war could have far-reaching adverse effects on global growth. The potential decline in US economic growth and demand could limit and even stagnate our export opportunities.

"Such a situation is undesirable," Rahman said.

"We hope that ongoing discussions, including those between Canada and the US, will prevent this situation from worsening further. If the situation deteriorates, it will not yield any positive outcomes for the global economy or Bangladesh."​