[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy
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An analysis of reintroduction of package VAT

Dr. Md. Abdur Rouf

Published :
May 09, 2026 23:16
Updated :
May 09, 2026 23:16

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It is reported on 26 April, 2026 on the Financial Express that the government is considering reintroduction of package VAT-a fixed amount of VAT on small retail traders abolished in July 2019, following introduction of the new VAT law. There is a misunderstanding even among the concerned people about the abolition of package VAT and its impact. It is even understood that package VAT was abolished and in that place standard VAT was introduced, so those small retail traders are at disadvantage requiring justice. On this point, I believe, the need for reintroduction of package VAT has gained momentum recently. But the real scenario is completely different. The small retail traders eligible for package VAT along with some other traders with even larger business turnover remain outside VAT net under the current VAT regime. So, the need for reintroducing package VAT does not arise when they do not require paying VAT.

Under the previous VAT regime that ended in June, 2019, package VAT was in place only for small retail traders who had yearly sale of about Taka 5 lac or near. But under the current VAT regime that started from July 2019, all entities with yearly business turnover below Taka 30 lac remain outside VAT net. So, the rationale for reintroduction of package VAT becomes fade.

The VAT Regime

We need to keep in mind the basics of VAT regime of Banglaesh to get the point I am trying to make today. VAT is collected at import stage-we call it import VAT. VAT is collected at manufacturing stage-we call it production VAT. VAT is collected on the provision of services-we call it service VAT. VAT is collected at trading stage-we call it trade VAT. Under trade VAT, there falls dealer, distributor, commission agent, general store, departmental store, super shop, shopping mall, wholesaler, retailer etc. Trading stage remains widely dispersed with biggest entities as like as Walton Plaza and smallest entities as like as small shops at our neighbourhood.

If we look at the revenue scenario, last year NBR collected about Taka 1,56,000 core from domestic VAT. Of the amount, about 50 per cent came from manufacturing, about 40 per cent from service, about 5 per cent from trading and about the rest 5 per cent from Advance Tax (AT). Mentionably, import stage AT is shown with domestic collection but import stage VAT and SD is shown with import stage collection. In monetary value, trade VAT stands at about Taka 7,000 crore. Package VAT stands at the periphery of trade VAT that generated insignificant amount of VAT. So, an attention on package VAT is again misplaced.

The Trade VAT Regime

Commercial importers are traders. Those who purchase goods from commercial importers, manufacturers, local traders and then sell, they are traders. Traders can pay 15 per cent output VAT and can take input tax rebate. Out of the total about 8 lac VAT registered entities, about 2.5 lac are traders. Only a small number of them pay 15 per cent output VAT taking input tax rebate. A good number of traders pay 7.5 per cent output VAT without taking input tax credit. A large number of traders pay scanty amount of VAT. The lion's share of about Taka 7,000 crore trade VAT is paid by a small number of traders, though understatement also remains rampant. About 50 per cent of the registered traders do not submit VAT return. Lacs of small traders are now remain unregistered under VAT and do not pay any VAT. Mostly, they fall under Taka 30 lac bracket requiring no VAT registration. Under the above realities, we need paying more attention on the big and medium traders-not upon the package VAT eligible micro units.

The Package VAT Regime

Under the previous VAT regime, package VAT was meant for small retail traders only. We know that traders are of various types, such as: dealer, distributor, commission agent, super shop, shopping mall, departmental store, general store, wholesaler and retailer. From among them only the small retail traders were eligible to pay package VAT. There was a method of determining package VAT eligibility. They were large in numbers but the amount of VAT they paid was scanty. Package VAT was then ironically called as 'packet VAT'-reintroduction of the same may reintroduce the same possibility.

Annual maximum value addition was the criteria for ascertaining the status of the small retail traders. In the Dhaka (North), Dhaka (South) and Chittagong City Corporation areas, for retail traders, yearly maximum value addition was ascertained at Taka 1,86,667 with a fixed amount of minimum Taka 28,000 package VAT. In other City Corporation areas, for small retail traders, yearly maximum value addition was ascertained at Taka 1,33,334 with a fixed amount of minimum Taka 20,000 package VAT. In the district municipal area, for small retail traders, yearly maximum value addition was ascertained at Taka 93,334 with a fixed amount of minimum Taka 14,000 package VAT. And in other areas, for small retail traders, yearly maximum value addition was ascertained at Taka 46,667 with a fixed amount of minimum Taka 7,000 package VAT. It was directed that the VAT Divisional Officer, Circle Officer, Assistant Revenue Officer and local business leaders together shall prepare list of such small retail traders. So, determination was also assumptive. Even today, ascertaining value addition is a challenging task in our VAT management system. These small retail traders were required to preserve purchase documents, cash memo and sale register. Package VAT could be paid yearly once or in monthly instalments. Based on the above value addition and considering about 30 to 40 per cent value addition in a business, the yearly turnover stands at around Taka 5 lac or near. Currently, an entity with Taka 30 lac or below annual turnover enjoys VAT-free status. So, the need for reintroduction of package VAT does not arise.

In the years close to 2019 when package VAT was scrapped, total trade VAT collection stood at about Taka 4,000 core a year. Of the amount, package VAT contributed to Taka 238, 189 and 117 crore respectively during FYs 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2018-19-a very insignificant amount (The Fiancial Express, 26 April, 2026). Mentionably, the amount of Turnover Tax (TT)-another tax on SME during this period was about Taka 4.85, 2.45 and 20.74 crore respectively-scanty amount. So, the collection from package VAT and TT is very negligible. So, this shall not be a sane proposal to pursue these micro entities-then the bigger ones may go unattended.

A stark reality of our economy is overwhelming amount of turnover is generated by a small number of actors and the overwhelming number of actors generate small amount of turnover. This is true at manufacturing, service, trading all stages. Revenue pattern is also same. The dark reality is the VAT authorities till today could not know the real amount of turnover. This is the greatest challenge in our revenue system requiring utmost attention. An attention on package VAT is rather misguided or misdirected.

Points of Consideration

Detection of the actual amount of turnover of the business entities is the biggest challenge in our VAT system. So, we need to find criteria-based solution on that basis we can differentiate the traders eligible to pay VAT and keep some of them outside VAT. Our current trade VAT regime is a bit anomalous. Generally, we know that an entity with a yearly turnover not exceeding Taka 30 lac enjoys VAT exemption, an entity with a yearly turnover not exceeding Taka 50 lac shall pay 4 per cent Turnover Tax (TT) and an entity with above Taka 50 lac yearly turnover shall pay VAT. But NBR's General Order No-17/Mushak/2019, dated 17 July 2019 lists goods and services those require paying VAT compulsorily whatever be their business turnover. So, at the field level, it is challenging for the common people to ascertain which entity is required to pay VAT and which entity enjoys VAT-free status.

It is challenging for the small traders to maintain proper accounts. Their revenue contribution is scanty. The VAT administration is not properly equipped to fight in all fronts. Highest amount of VAT is paid by a small number of entities though till today, there persists large-scale underreporting among big and medium entities. VAT is imposed on sale. We need to know the proper amount of sale-of course of the toppers first. Roaming around the utmost periphery of package VAT may generate disturbing discourse only.

Recommendations

To meet the objectives of facilitating SMEs with less strain on revenue collection, provisions can be made to specifically determine who shall pay trade VAT and who shall remain VAT-free. Rather than reintroducing package VAT, the small retail traders may be kept outside VAT net along with current Turnover Tax payers. Only commercial importers, supershops, traders located at shopping mall, general store, departmental store, sole dealer, sole agent, sole distributor, entities with limited company and partnership status can be kept under trade VAT regime. A trader located anywhere with less than 150 square feet space who is a retailer and not a limited company or not a partnership firm can be kept outside trade VAT. Advance Tax (AT) paid at import stage by any commercial importer can be made final settlement with ease during first sale. Those who sell at purchase price being sole agent on commission basis shall not pay any VAT since there is no value addition. Rate of trade VAT may be reduced to 3-5 per cent-the current 7.5 per cent trade VAT without input tax credit is too heavy. It is recommended that trade VAT provisions may be framed accordingly. Prior to its introduction, complete invoice automation of these entities at one go is suggested strongly.

The objective of reintroduction of package VAT is to give relief to the small traders-a good move but cauious weighing is needed about whether the measures to be taken shall meet the objectives. It is more expedient to remove VAT from small traders, rather than reintroducing package VAT because reintroduction of package VAT shall neither give the small traders relief, nor shall it contribute to any significant amount of revenue. At the same time, Turnover Tax (TT) may also be scrapped. This can be the proper approach to facilitate the SMEs. The government shall lose pea nuts. VAT administration can be engaged in ensuring compliance of large and medium players generating many times more returns in terms of revenue.

The writer is a former Member of NBR. He is currently Chairman of Bangladesh VAT Professionals Forum and International VAT Training Institute.​
 

Finance Minister Amir Khosru deems IMF conditions ‘not suitable’ for Bangladesh economy

bdnews24.com

Published :
May 11, 2026 23:45
Updated :
May 11, 2026 23:45

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Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has said the conditions being added by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the loan agreement are not “suitable” for the economy of Bangladesh.

He made the comments at a discussion titled “Roadmap to Building Bangladesh’s Economic Future in the Face of Global Uncertainty” organised by the Daily Bonik Barta in Dhaka on Monday.

The finance minister said the government could not accept all IMF conditions out of “responsibility” to the people.

Khosru said, “Most of the development partners agree with the BNP’s election manifesto. They are my development partners. If they do not agree with me, I will not be able to move forward.

“There are disagreements in many places with the IMF, because the conditions that they are giving are not suitable for my economy.”

Explaining the government’s continued stance against the IMF’s conditions, he said: “We are an elected government with a responsibility to the people. We cannot do everything according to their words.

“That is why we have differences with some multilateral organisations, and these differences will continue.

“I will correct my course as much as it is consistent with my manifesto. It is not possible to do anything beyond this.”

Amid concerns about the release of the remaining amount of the loan agreement with the IMF, the minister claimed on Apr 18 that the IMF has a “positive” attitude to continue the loan programme.

Earlier, after a meeting with IMF Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clark in Washington DC, US, he told journalists: “The discussions [on the release of funds] are still ongoing.”

About three weeks later, he indicated that Bangladesh had failed to meet the IMF’s conditions, even as the country sought an additional $2 billion beyond the existing loan package.

The additional funds were requested to tackle the fuel crisis amid the war in the West Asia.

However, the IMF reportedly imposed stricter conditions than those under the current agreement.

Bangladesh signed a $4.7 billion loan deal with the IMF in early 2023 after several rounds of negotiations during the Awami League government to address the financial crisis.

In June 2025, the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus increased the package by $800 million, raising the total to $5.5 billion.

So far, Bangladesh has received $3.64 billion in five instalments, leaving $1.86 billion outstanding. The sixth instalment and the remaining funds were due in December last year.

At the time, the IMF said the remaining amount would be released following discussions with an elected government.

Before disbursing the funds, the lender also sought progress on reform conditions, including improvements in revenue collection, where implementation has lagged.​
 

Revamping state-owned sugar mills

SYED FATTAHUL ALIM

Published :
May 11, 2026 21:21
Updated :
May 11, 2026 21:21

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Being part of a region that was historically the first producer of sugar by boiling sugarcane juice until it turned into crystals, Bangladesh now meets 95 to 98 per cent of its annual demand (of roughly between 2 and 2.5 million metric tons) for sugar through import. With the domestic production ranging between 1.0 and 5.0 per cent of the annual demand, the country has to import its sugar from even faraway lands like Brazil. The country has some 15 sugar mills under the Bangladesh Sugar and Food Industries Corporation (BSFIC). But these industries, as in the case of other state-owned industries, are loss-making, top-heavy institutions. Moreover, the obsolete machinery of these sugar mills contributes to increasing sugar's production cost, which often far exceeds its market price. Unsurprisingly, running these sugar mills have become commercially unviable. So, they need major rehabilitation to make them viable. As these sugar mills cannot meet the public's demand for sugar, the market is now under the control of private businesses (five to six large industrial groups essentially control the sugar market), who import raw sugar and refine it. That is the main reason why the sugar market is so volatile. In such circumstances, unless the state-owned sugar mills are rehabilitated, modernised and made operational, the private refiners' grip on the market and its attendant instability will continue. The good news is that the commerce minister, Khandakar Abdul Muktadir, who is also in charge of the industry ministry, told journalists that the government was going to reopen nine of the 15 sugar mills under the BSFIC, which are now sitting idle.

Notably, six of these sugar mills are still operational. On this score, the minister reportedly visited the Panchagar Sugar Mills Limited and stressed the need for renovation and introduction of new technology for the age-old sugar mills. As he assured, once made operational, those sugar mills will be able to reduce country's dependence on imported sugar, contribute to the economy, benefit workers and sugarcane farmers, create jobs and stimulate income-generating activities in the areas centering the sugar mills. The fact that the minister talked with the sugarcane farmers in Panchagarh is reassuring. In fact, most of the state-owned sugar mills in the past were responsible for exploitation of the sugarcane farmers. The administration of those sugar mills was corrupt to the core. The sugarcane farmers would be subjected to cheating by mill officials as soon as the farmers emptied their sugarcane-laden bullock carts on the factory premises. Farmers would be cheated while weighing sugarcane. A sizeable chunk of their product would be rejected without rhyme or reason. The payment against their supply of sugarcane would also fall into bureaucratic traps. That is the reason why the sugarcane farmers in some districts formed associations and staged protests against the exploitative sugar mills officials. In the face of such raw deal meted out to the sugarcane farmers by the sugar mills authorities, the farmers naturally lost interest in supplying their products of hard labour to the mills. This acted as a disincentive to the sugarcane growers.

The state-owned sugar mills' failures could also be traced to the resentment of the sugarcane farmers who gradually stopped growing sugar cane and switched to other cash crops. In that case, the government has to convince the farmers that the rehabilitated sugar mills authorities would treat them fairly and the past practice of mistreating the farmers by mill officials would stop. It is believed the commerce minister's exchange of views with the sugarcane farmers would be motivating enough for the growers. While assuring the farmers about the benefits they would be able to draw from the revived sugar mills, the minister, at the same time, would also do well to issue strict warning against any instance of mistreatment or exploitation of sugarcane growers by the mill officials in the future. In this connection, alongside renovating the sugar mills, their administration needs also to be revamped to render those efficient, productive and free from corruption.​
 

Forex reserves above $34b despite rising ACU payments

Siddique Islam

Published :
May 11, 2026 10:53
Updated :
May 11, 2026 10:53

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Bangladesh's external account looks stable with gross foreign-exchange reserves standing above US $34 billion despite deferred import payment through the Asian Clearing Unit (ACU), official statistics show.

The government cleared payments worth $1.51 billion against imports made in March-April period of 2026.

After the payment, the country's gross forex reserves came down to $34.14 billion Sunday from $35.62 billion of previous working day.

As per the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s Balance of Payments International Investment Poisson Manual-six edition, generally known as BMP6, the reserves fell to $29.48 billion during the period under review from $30.96 billion, according to the central bank's latest data.

"Our forex reserves remain at a satisfactory level even after making the routine payment to the ACU," a senior official of Bangladesh Bank (BB) told The Financial Express (FE) in response to a query.

He also says Bangladesh is now capable of meeting more than five months' import-payment obligations with its existing reserves.

"Higher remittance inflows and lower import-payment obligations have contributed to an improvement in the country's reserve position," the central banker explains.

The purchasing of the US dollar from the commercial banks by the central bank has also helped push up the forex reserves recently, according to the central banker.

The central bank of Bangladesh has so far bought $5.75 billion from banks directly since July 13 last under the prevailing free-floating exchange-rate arrangement, the BB data show.

"We're now giving priority to keeping the exchange of the US dollar against the local currency stable despite ongoing geopolitical tensions," the central banker says in response to another query.

The central banker also says the gross forex reserves may cross $36 billion by the end of June if the government secures minimum $2.0 billion in loans from overseas sources.

Meanwhile, the amount of ACU payments rose to $1.51 billion during the period under review from $1.37 billion earlier mainly due to higher imports from the ACU-member countries, particularly from India.

Bangladesh is now importing different consumer items, cotton, raw materials and capital machinery from the ACU countries, especially from neighbouring India, according to the central bankers.

As per the existing provisions, outstanding import bills and interest thereof are to be paid by member-countries at the end of every two months.

The ACU is an arrangement involving Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives through which intraregional transactions among the participating central banks are settled on a multilateral basis.​
 

Aligning domestic policies with international trading practices

Wasi Ahmed

Published :
May 12, 2026 21:47
Updated :
May 12, 2026 21:47

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The question whether domestic policies alone can effectively boost trade is both timely and complex. To understand the impact and limitations of such policies, it is essential to consider them within the broader context of today's global trading environment-an environment shaped as much by external forces as by internal ones.

It is commonly acknowledged that the power of domestic policies to stimulate trade has certain limits, particularly when considered against the backdrop of an increasingly interconnected and interdependent global economy. Trade today is less about isolated national efforts and more about navigating a web of regional agreements, international regulations and cross-border market dynamics. While domestic policy frameworks-such as competition policy, export-import (exim) policy, and industrial policy-play a crucial role in shaping the trade potential of a country, their influence is significantly constrained by external variables over which countries, especially developing and less-developed ones, have limited control.

Domestic policies are generally geared towards creating an enabling environment within the national economy. They aim to ensure price stability, encourage fair business practices, enhance industrial productivity and create infrastructure conducive to trade. These measures support domestic firms in becoming more competitive, both at home and abroad. For example, a well-formulated industrial policy may promote sector-specific growth, leading to increased production for export. Similarly, competition policy can reduce monopolistic tendencies and improve consumer choice and pricing, thereby indirectly influencing the global competitiveness of domestic firms.

However, this is only one side of the coin. The other side presents a more challenging picture. No matter how sound a country's internal policies are, they often fall short in addressing trade barriers imposed by foreign partners. This includes non-tariff barriers, restrictive standards, subsidies, and protectionist measures that distort fair competition. The imbalance in economic strength and negotiating power between trading partners further complicates matters. Developing countries, for instance, frequently find themselves on the weaker end of trade negotiations, having to comply with rules that do not favour their interests.

It is precisely because of these challenges that nations increasingly seek alternative strategies to facilitate trade, such as forming regional alliances or entering into bilateral agreements. These arrangements are often seen as more achievable and less demanding than global trade negotiations. Regional trade agreements (RTAs) and bilateral deals offer a more manageable framework for cooperation, one in which countries can expect a certain degree of mutual understanding and benefit. Geographical proximity often leads to shared challenges and goals, which can be more effectively addressed through joint efforts. For example, neighbouring countries may have similar agricultural concerns, infrastructure limitations, or energy needs, making cooperation more practical and results-driven.

The rise of regionalism in trade, therefore, has been largely driven by the desire for a level playing field-something that multilateralism, despite its broader reach, has frequently failed to provide. Yet, regionalism is not without its flaws. Asymmetries in the economic strength of countries within regional trade blocs have often resulted in unequal benefits. In several such arrangements, smaller or economically weaker members have struggled to keep up, unable to take full advantage of market access opportunities due to their limited production capacity or lack of export-ready goods. These internal disparities can undermine the broader goals of equitable trade and shared prosperity.

Coming back to domestic policies, their role in boosting trade, though undeniably important, must be viewed within these wider perspectives. At best, domestic policies can serve to strengthen a country's internal supply base, address inefficiencies, improve product quality and invest in research and innovation. They can enhance infrastructure, facilitate logistics, streamline customs procedures, and improve the business climate. All of these factors contribute to trade readiness and resilience.

However, domestic policies alone cannot address or overcome the external challenges that come with international trade. These include policy-induced barriers from partner countries, such as anti-dumping duties, phytosanitary standards that act as disguised restrictions and sudden regulatory changes that disadvantage exporters. No matter how proactive or well-designed a country's internal policies are, they cannot shield the shifting landscape of international trade rules that may be tilted in favour of stronger players. For instance, many developing countries have experienced market access difficulties despite liberalising their own markets and aligning domestic policies with international norms. This suggests that mere adoption of trade-friendly policies is not enough to guarantee success in global markets. The external environment, particularly the actions and decisions of trade partners, plays a critical role in shaping outcomes. Without reciprocal openness, supportive international institutions and fair dispute resolution mechanisms, the potential of domestic policies remains constrained.

Therefore, while domestic policies form the foundation of a country's trade strategy, they must be complemented by strategic engagement in regional and multilateral forums, capacity-building for trade negotiations, and efforts to diversify trade partners and products. Furthermore, building alliances with like-minded countries, investing in regional value chains and advocating for fairer international trade rules are all critical elements in a broader trade policy framework.​
 

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