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[🇺🇦] Monitoring Russian and Ukraine War.

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[🇺🇦] Monitoring Russian and Ukraine War.
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War in Ukraine: What is Putin's negotiation strategy?
Deutsche Welle
Updated: 15 Mar 2025, 18: 33

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Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin was keen to get something off his chest right away. Before even responding to the proposal for a ceasefire in the war against Ukraine, the Russian president addressed "words of gratitude" to US President Donald Trump — "for paying so much attention to the Ukraine settlement," he said in Moscow on 13 March.

This was not a coincidence. "Putin wants Trump to believe that Putin is interested in a deal," commented Anton Barbashin, a political scientist and editor-in-chief of the analysis website Riddle Russia. Putin does not want to irritate Trump, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did. Instead, Barbashin explains, the Russian president "wants to push all the necessary buttons to get Trump to talk to him and strike a deal."

However, Putin's idea of what this deal should look like may be different to Trump's. The US president wants there to be an initial 30-day suspension of fighting between Ukraine and Russia. Putin indicated that he supported this, but added that there were "questions we need to discuss." What questions does he mean, and what do they reveal about how Russia plans to proceed?

Russia wants to expand the negotiations

Putin's objections, which he described as "questions," are in fact explicit demands. The Ukrainian soldiers still fighting on Russian territory in the Kursk region should surrender. Ukraine should not be allowed to mobilize any new soldiers during the ceasefire. And the West must stop delivering arms to Kyiv during this period.

According to Putin, the ceasefire should "lead to a long-term peace and eliminate the causes of the conflict." This vague phrasing is an attempt to steer the negotiations toward Moscow's long-term goals in Ukraine.

"Russia is aiming for a ceasefire that would lead directly to peace talks," said Anton Barbashin. Consequently, Moscow wants to secure several concessions upfront, including confirmation that Ukraine will never become part of NATO — and Barbashin says it wants this confirmation "from both NATO and Ukraine."

Furthermore, Putin's publicly stated war aims include a demand for Ukraine's complete withdrawal from the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which are currently only partially occupied by Russian forces.

Would Ukraine agree?

Kremlin-aligned experts believe Putin's conditions might be acceptable to Trump. "The US may well agree to the demand for an arms embargo, because Trump doesn't want to spend any more American money on Ukraine," the Moscow political scientist Sergei Markov wrote on his Telegram channel. He went on to speculate that continued mobilization in Ukraine is so unpopular that stopping it could actually strengthen the Ukrainian government.

But the US is once again supplying weapons to Ukraine, after a brief pause. And mobilization is still the only way that Ukraine, the country under attack, can maintain its defense. It therefore seems unlikely that Ukraine will agree to these terms.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy clashed with Donald Trump in the Oval Office at their meeting on 28 February.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy clashed with Donald Trump in the Oval Office at their meeting on 28 February.
"Despite everything we're hearing from Washington, Ukraine does actually still hold a lot of trump cards," the security expert Dmitri Alperovitch told DW. Ukraine, he said, could choose to go on defending itself with European help, even without support from the US: "It would be much more difficult, but they do have that option."

Russia is playing for time, not scaring Trump

Many experts believe Putin is playing for time. Time his army needs to drive Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory in the Kursk region. And time to convince Trump — at a summit meeting, perhaps — of the need for a more comprehensive deal.

According to Barbashin, if Putin succeeds in pushing through his demands, "this would pave the way to a much broader discussion on European security architecture." Trump, whose skepticism toward NATO is no secret, might be prepared to engage in such a discussion — which would create a unique opportunity for Russia.

At the same time, it looks as if Trump's options for influencing Putin are limited. Putin boasts that Russia's economy, fueled primarily by military spending, is still largely functioning, despite Western sanctions.

Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin has commented: "Trump has few options to counter either a Russian rejection or protracted feigned compliance. The most effective method will be the carrot rather than the stick: the temptation of a major deal." And this would very much align with Putin's interests.​
 

Zelenskiy says Kyiv's troops not surrounded in Kursk, warns of new Russian troop build-up
REUTERS
Published :
Mar 15, 2025 19:31
Updated :
Mar 15, 2025 19:31

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Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Kyiv, March 13, 2025. Photo : REUTERS/Alina Smutko

Ukrainian troops are still fending off Russian and North Korean forces in Russia's Kursk region but face a potential new attack on Ukraine's northeast Sumy region, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday.

Military analysts say Russia is close to ejecting Ukrainian forces from their months-old foothold in the western Russian region, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to warn that thousands were "completely surrounded".

In a statement on social media after being briefed by his top general, Zelenskiy said Kyiv's troops were not encircled in Kursk but that Moscow was accumulating forces nearby for a separate strike.

"This indicates an intention to attack our Sumy region," he said. "We are aware of this, and will counter it."

"I would like all (our) partners to understand exactly what Putin is planning, what he is preparing for, and what he will be ignoring."

Russian leader Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he supported in principle Trump's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, but would fight on until several crucial conditions were worked out.

On Saturday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told a meeting of about 25 European leaders and other allies that they would need to increase pressure on Putin to accept a ceasefire.

"The build-up of Russian forces indicates that Moscow intends to keep ignoring diplomacy," Zelenskiy added. "It is clear that Russia is prolonging the war."

In his statement, he also said the battlefield situation near the strategic eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk had "stabilised", and that Ukraine had successfully used a new domestically-produced long-range missile in combat.

Kyiv is seeking to expand its domestic defence industry to wean itself off Western allies who have provided critical artillery, air-defence and long-range strike capabilities.

Ukraine's new "long Neptune" missile has a range of 1,000 kilometres (621 miles), Zelenskiy said.​
 

Putin must negotiate, says Starmer
Agence France-Presse . London, United Kingdom 15 March, 2025, 22:12

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Russian president Vladimir Putin. | File photo

British prime minister Keir Starmer on Saturday said Russian president Vladimir Putin would ‘sooner or later’ have to ‘come to the table’ as he opened a virtual gathering to drum up support for Ukraine.

‘My feeling is that sooner or later, he’s going to have to come to the table and engage in serious discussion,’ Starmer told about 25 fellow leaders who joined the virtual summit.

The talks hosted in a call set up by Downing Street aim to urge participating countries to sign up to a coalition willing to protect any eventual ceasefire in Ukraine.

Starmer told allies the meeting would focus on three points ‘strengthening Ukraine, being prepared to defend any deal ourselves through a coalition of the willing and keeping that pressure on Russia at this crucial time’.

He said Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky had shown that Ukraine was the ‘party of peace because he has agreed to and committed to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire’.

‘Putin is the one trying to delay... if Putin is serious about peace, I think it’s very simple, he has to stop his barbaric attacks on Ukraine and agree to a ceasefire, and the world is watching,’ he added.

‘We can’t allow president Putin to play games with president Trump’s deal,’ Starmer said in comments released by Downing Street late Friday.

‘The Kremlin’s complete disregard for president Trump’s ceasefire proposal only serves to demonstrate that Putin is not serious about peace.

‘If Russia finally comes to the table, then we must be ready to monitor a ceasefire to ensure it is a serious, and enduring peace. If they don’t, then we need to strain every sinew to ramp up economic pressure on Russia to secure an end to this war,’ he added.

Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron have been leading efforts to assemble a so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ ever since Trump opened direct negotiations with Moscow last month.

They say the group is necessary—along with US support—to provide Ukraine with security guarantees by deterring Putin from violating any ceasefire.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday also confirmed the call and said he had discussed ‘technical aspects’ of how the ceasefire could be implemented with Macron.

‘Our teams continue to work on clear security guarantees, and they will be ready soon,’ Zelensky said on social media platform X.

Macron called on Russia late Friday to accept the proposal for a ceasefire, and stop making statements aimed at ‘delaying the process’.

The French president also demanded that Moscow stop its ‘acts of violence’ in Ukraine.

Germany on Friday likewise criticised Putin’s response to the US-proposed ceasefire in Ukraine as ‘at best a delaying tactic’.

‘One must seriously question whether there is a genuine interest in working toward a lasting ceasefire and a resolution,’ foreign ministry spokeswoman Kathrin Deschauer told reporters.

Turkey has indicated it could play a part in peacekeeping efforts, while Ireland’s prime minister Micheal Martin has said Irish troops would not be deployed in any ‘deterrent force’.

Starmer has said he welcomes any offer of support, raising the prospect that some countries could contribute logistics or surveillance.

British Commonwealth partners Canada, Australia and New Zealand have been involved in early talks and are due to dial in to the summit.

Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni has already rejected the idea of sending Italian troops to Ukraine.​
 

Trump, Putin begin crucial call on Ukraine ceasefire
AFP
Washington
Published: 18 Mar 2025, 21: 49

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This combination of pictures created on 7 November, 2024 shows former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (l) attends a Fox News Townn Hall moderated by US television host Harris Faulkner (out of frame), in Cumming, Georgia, on 15 October, 2024, and Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) speaks during the BRICS summit in Kazan on 24 October, 2024. AFP

US President Donald Trump and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin began a critical phone call on Tuesday, with the White House saying the talks on securing a ceasefire in Moscow's invasion were "going well."

Trump has already made clear that he is ready to discuss what parts of occupied Ukraine that Russia will be allowed to keep, saying at the weekend Moscow and Washington are talking about "dividing up certain assets."

The call comes amid concerns in Kyiv and European capitals that the 78-year-old Republican will cede too much ground to Putin, a leader for whom he has repeatedly expressed admiration in the past.

"President Trump is currently in the Oval Office speaking with President Vladimir Putin of Russia since 10:00am (1400 GMT)" deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino said on X almost an hour later.

"The call is going well, and still in progress."

A ceasefire is still far from guaranteed. Kyiv has agreed to halt fighting for 30 days and enter talks with Russia more than three years into Moscow's invasion, but Putin has set a string of conditions.

Trump said on his Truth Social network late Monday that "many elements of a final agreement have been agreed to, but much remains" to be settled.

The talks were "getting down to a very critical stage," Trump added.

Putin speech

Putin gave a hardline anti-Western speech Tuesday before the call, saying the West would still try to undermine Russia even if it lifted sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine.

He mocked the G7 to wild applause from the audience, saying it was too small to "see on a map."

Kyiv said it expected Moscow to "unconditionally" accept to the ceasefire.

"It is time for Russia to show whether it really wants peace," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned Putin does not want peace and is trying to achieve a better position militarily ahead of any halt in fighting.

Russia has attacked Ukraine with near daily barrages of drones and missiles for more than three years, occupying swathes of southern and eastern Ukraine and pressing a grinding advance in recent months.

Putin has said that a ceasefire only benefits Kyiv and not the Russian army, that he said was "advancing".

Moscow has also made clear that it would not accept NATO troops deployed as peacekeeping forces in Ukraine and has said it was against the US arming Ukraine -- demands that he could put forward to Trump.

The push towards a ceasefire began in February when Trump announced last month that he had spoken to Putin -- a surprise call that broke Western efforts to isolate the Russian leader while his invasion continues.

As Trump upended years of US policy he then had a televised shouting match with Zelensky in the Oval Office on February 28, which led to the United States temporarily suspending its billions of dollars in military aid to Kyiv.

End now

On Sunday Trump said he would discuss issues of "land" and "power plants" with Putin -- a likely reference to the Moscow-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe's largest that fell to Russia in the first days of its invasion.

Zelensky said over the weekend that any discussions over territory should take place at the negotiating table only after a ceasefire.

Trump is intent on delivering on an election pledge to end fighting in Ukraine, blaming his predecessor Joe Biden's policy on Russia for fueling the war.

"It must end NOW," he said on Truth Social.

As Washington and Moscow prepared for the talks, authorities in Russia's Kursk region were evacuating several hundred civilians from areas retaken from Ukraine last summer.

The Kremlin has hailed Moscow's quick offensive there last week as a major success, with Putin calling for Ukrainian soldiers to surrender or be killed.

Russian pensioner Olga Shkuratova's husband was killed last week during fighting as Russia ousted Ukrainian troops from her village of Goncharovka.

"A shell hit. Everything was blown apart in a second. No house, no garage, no barn," the 62-year-old told AFP as she was taken to safety by volunteers.​
 

Russia-Ukraine war
Rivals report attacks amid US peace push

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  • EU says Putin clearly unwilling to make concessions​
  • Zelensky warns against slowing aid, says will speak to Trump​
  • Kremlin says Trump, Putin understand each other​
  • New round of ceasefire talks as early as Sunday​

Russia and Ukraine yesterday accused each other of violating a new agreement to refrain from attacks on energy targets, with scores of drone strikes launched hours after US President Donald Trump spoke by phone to Russia's Vladimir Putin.

In the phone call between the US and Russian leaders on Tuesday, Putin rejected a proposed full 30-day ceasefire, which had been sought by Trump and previously accepted by Ukraine.

Putin said he would agree only to pause attacks on energy infrastructure, a proposal that was swiftly accepted by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, who nevertheless denounced Moscow for rejecting a more comprehensive truce.

But even that narrow pause appeared in doubt yesterday. Moscow said Ukraine hit an oil pumping station in southern Russia, while Kyiv said Russia had struck hospitals and homes, and knocked out power to some of its railways.

Zelensky said that the continued attacks showed Moscow's words were not aligned with its actions, and that Russia was still not ready for peace. He said the United States should be put in charge of monitoring any ceasefire.

Zelensky also warned against heeding a Kremlin call to halt military aid for his country and announced he would speak with Trump later within hours.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin and Trump understand each other well and were determined to restore badly damaged ties.

Russia and the United States will decide on dates for future talks in the coming days, the Kremlin said.

"Both today and tomorrow, there will be additional agreements on the exact, precise dates," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about future talks with the US.

Some European leaders said Putin's rejection of Trump's proposed full truce was proof Moscow not seeking peace. The offer to temporarily stop attacking Ukrainian energy facilities counted for "nothing" and Trump would have to win greater concessions, Germany's defence minister said.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that Moscow cannot be trusted.​
 

Europe meets over Ukraine peace plans
Trump floats US takeover of Ukraine nuclear plants

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Senior military figures and European leaders yesterday gathered to thrash out plans for long-term peace in Ukraine, as the United States and Russia prepared for fresh talks on ending the war.

Around 30 military leaders from countries keen to help police any lasting ceasefire in Ukraine were to meet north of London, while on the other side of the Channel, EU leaders headed to Brussels.

The flurry of European activity comes with lingering concern about the United States' commitment to backing security on the continent, and fears of future Russian aggression against Baltic and Nordic countries.

Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia's Vladimir Putin both held talks with their US counterpart Donald Trump this week, and have indicated they are prepared to halt attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days.

But there has since been no let-up in strikes and both countries reported a barrage of new drone strikes overnight, as questions remained about the exact details of any lasting peace deal.

Trump, who has spooked European and Nato allies by his overtures to Putin and lukewarm commitment to European security, suggested on Wednesday night the United States could take over and run Ukraine's power plants.

Putin, for his part, has made an end to further Western military support for Ukraine a red line for Russia agreeing to a long-term truce.

Zelensky, who is due to address EU leaders in Brussels, has said that will make Ukraine vulnerable to further attack and warned against making concessions that would embolden Moscow.

Despite Trump going cold on support for Ukraine, the United States is looking at acquiring additional air defence systems for Kyiv to counter Russia's ballistic missiles.

"This is extremely important," said the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas, who is pushing member states to meet a Ukrainian request for two million shells worth five billion euros ($5.4 billion).​
 

Russia and US to discuss Black Sea shipping and Ukraine peace in Saudi Arabia
REUTERS
Published :
Mar 20, 2025 17:51
Updated :
Mar 20, 2025 17:51

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A Russian floating dock is towed by tugboats through Bosphorus to the Black Sea, in Istanbul, Turkey, September 18, 2024.
Photo : REUTERS/Yoruk Isik/Files

Russia and the U.S. will discuss ways to ensure safe shipping in the Black Sea at talks on a possible Ukrainian peace settlement in the Saudi city of Jeddah over coming days, the Kremlin said on Thursday.

After Russian forces made gains in 2024, President Donald Trump reversed U.S. policy on the war, launching bilateral talks with Moscow and suspending military assistance to Ukraine, demanding that it take steps to end the conflict.

Trump envoy Steve Witkoff earlier this week said U.S.-Russian talks would take place on Sunday in Jeddah. But when asked by Reuters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said they might instead be early next week.

“We expect that negotiations will continue at the expert level and will continue in the coming days,” Peskov said, adding that Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov had spoken to Mike Waltz, the U.S. national security adviser, on Wednesday.

Peskov said that when Putin and Trump spoke by telephone on Tuesday, they had discussed the “Black Sea Initiative”

Turkey and the United Nations helped mediate the so called Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal struck in July 2022 that allowed the safe export of nearly 33 million metric tons of Ukraine grain across the Black Sea despite the war.

Russia withdrew from the agreement after a year, complaining that its own food and fertiliser exports faced serious obstacles.

“We fulfilled all the conditions then, but the conditions in relation to us were not fulfilled,” Peskov said.

The White House, in its March 18 statement on the Putin-Trump call, said the leaders agreed to technical negotiation on the implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, a full ceasefire and permanent peace.

Nayla Cherino Parra believes a small needle can make a big difference to a cow’s health.

The World Bank’s global commodities outlook from April 2024 says that despite the Black Sea shipping risks, both Russia and Ukraine were shipping grain to global markets without major problems. It also said the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative had a minimal fallout.

The bank’s latest report from October 2024 does not mention Black Sea shipping risks.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has left hundreds of thousands of dead and injured, displaced millions of people, reduced towns to rubble and triggered the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West in six decades.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine began in 2014 after a Russia-friendly president was toppled in Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution and Russia annexed Crimea, with Russian-backed separatist forces then fighting Ukraine’s armed forces in the east.​
 

Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of blowing up Russian gas pumping station
REUTERS
Published :
Mar 21, 2025 20:06
Updated :
Mar 21, 2025 20:06

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Black smoke rises from the site of fire following an explosion at an oil depot, which was recently hit by a drone what local authorities called a Ukrainian a military strike, in the settlement of Kavkazskaya in the Krasnodar region, Russia, in this still image from video released March 21, 2025. Photo : Krasnodar Region's Ministry of Internal Affairs/Handout via REUTERS

Russia and Ukraine accused each other on Friday of blowing up a Russian gas pumping station in a border area where Ukrainian troops have been retreating, amid talks over a proposed US-backed moratorium on attacks on energy infrastructure.

Video footage showed a blaze at the Sudzha facility, which is located inside Russia several hundred metres from the Ukrainian border.

It is inside a pocket of Russian territory that had been captured by Ukrainian forces last year, but which Moscow has mostly recovered in heavy fighting in recent weeks. Russian troops pushed Ukrainian forces out of the nearby town of Sudzha last week.

Russia's defence ministry said Ukraine's troops had left the pumping station and blown it up in their retreat. Moscow described this as a violation of the moratorium on attacks on energy infrastructure, which it said it has abided by since a phone call between President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump on Tuesday.

Kyiv said Russian forces had blown up the facility themselves as a provocation, describing Russia's accusations as fake.

Putin agreed to the pause in attacks on energy facilities during his phone call with Trump, when Putin rejected a proposal for a more comprehensive 30-day ceasefire. Kyiv says it is prepared to accept the proposal if hammered out formally in talks.

Russia's Investigative Committee, which probes serious crimes, said it had opened a criminal case over what it called "an act of terrorism" which had done "significant damage" to the gas transit facility, which once took Russian gas to Europe.

The Ukrainian military accused Russian forces of shelling it with artillery in a false flag "provocation".

"The Russians continue to produce numerous fakes and seek to mislead the international community," the Ukrainian army General Staff said in a statement.

Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian president's chief-of-staff, said: "Russian attempts to deceive everyone and pretend that they are 'adhering to the ceasefire' will not work, as the fake (news) about the strikes on the gas station will not work."

Reuters could not independently verify the accounts of the situation at the plant or the cause of the blast.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Putin's order for Russian forces to temporarily halt attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine remained in force, and the Sudzha explosion showed Ukraine could not be trusted to keep its word.

Separately, a new explosion rocked an oil depot in Russia's southern Krasnodar region on Friday where firefighters had been trying to extinguish a blaze that had broken out on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack hours after Putin spoke to Trump.

"During the extinguishing process, due to depressurisation of the burning tank, there was an explosion of oil products and release of burning oil," Russian regional authorities said on the Telegram messaging app.

The fire spread to another tank, and the fire area increased to 10,000 sq metres (108,000 sq feet), they added - more than twice the original size of the blaze. More than 450 firefighters were trying to tackle it, and two had been injured.

Russia has pounded Ukraine's energy grid throughout the war, causing frequent blackouts affecting civilians and industry, arguing that civilian infrastructure is a legitimate target because it helps Ukraine's war effort.

More recently, Kyiv has also been launching attacks on Russian oil and gas targets, which it says provide fuel for Moscow's forces in Ukraine and funds Russia's military.​
 

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