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[🇺🇦] Monitoring Russian and Ukraine War.

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[🇺🇦] Monitoring Russian and Ukraine War.
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Russia, Ukraine each free first 390 prisoners in start of war's biggest swap

REUTERS
Published :
May 24, 2025 11:54
Updated :
May 24, 2025 11:54

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A still image from a video released by the Russian Defence Ministry shows what it said to be Russian service personnel captured by Ukrainian forces and released during the latest exchange of prisoners of war in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, as they sit in a bus at an unknown location in Belarus, in this image taken from handout footage released May 23, 2025 — Russian Defence Ministry/Handout via REUTERS

Russia and Ukraine each released 390 prisoners on Friday and said they would free more in the coming days, in what is expected to be the biggest prisoner swap of the war so far.

The agreement to exchange 1,000 prisoners each was the only concrete step towards peace to emerge last week from the first direct talks between the warring sides in more than three years, when they failed to agree a ceasefire.

Both sides said they had each released 270 soldiers and 120 civilians so far, with more due to be released on Saturday and Sunday.

The released Ukrainians arrived at a hospital in the northern Chernihiv region in buses and filed out, pale, most of them with shaven heads and wrapped in Ukrainian flags.

"I have no words to describe (my feelings). I was in captivity for 22 months,” said Ukrainian soldier Oleksandr Nehir. He embraced his wife who said she had not been informed of his release and came from their home in Sumy region out of hope.

"You can’t make it out if you don’t believe. You have to believe every day," Nehir said.

Another soldier, Oleksandr Tarasov, 38, from Mykolaiv, said he had been captured a year and nine months ago on the Kherson front after its recapture by Ukraine in 2022.

"I didn’t believe until this moment that it could happen," he said of his release.

The freed Russians arrived in Belarus, which neighbours Ukraine, where they were receiving psychological and medical assistance, the Russian Defence Ministry said.

They include civilians captured inside Russia's Kursk region during a Ukrainian incursion.

Video released by the ministry showed civilians on a bus, some smiling and others crying. "This is our gift, happiness," one woman said.

Another video showed released soldiers wearing military fatigues holding up a Russian and a Soviet flag and shouting "Hurrah!"

"Everything will be all right! Glory to Russia!" said one soldier.

TRUMP HAILS RELEASE

Referring to the prisoner swap earlier on Friday, US President Donald Trump, who had pressed the sides to meet last week, wrote on Truth Social: "Congratulations to both sides on this negotiation. This could lead to something big???"

Hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides are believed to have been wounded or killed in Europe's deadliest war since World War Two, although neither side publishes accurate casualty figures. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians have also died as Russian forces have besieged and bombarded Ukrainian cities.

Ukraine on Friday reiterated that it is ready for a 30-day ceasefire immediately.

Russia, which launched the war by invading its neighbour in 2022 and now occupies about a fifth of Ukraine, says it will not pause its assaults until conditions are met first. A member of the Ukrainian delegation called those conditions "non-starters".

Trump, who has shifted US policy from supporting Kyiv towards accepting some of Moscow's account of the war, had said he could tighten sanctions on Russia if it blocked peace. But after speaking to Putin on Monday he decided to take no action for now.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov told reporters at the hospital that the swap was "the first stage" and that Kyiv still hoped to secure a ceasefire.

"We hope that the U.S. will support Ukraine in achieving the ceasefire," he said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday that Moscow would hand Kyiv a draft document outlining its conditions for a long-term peace agreement once the prisoner exchange is completed.

STILL HOPING

Near the hospital in the Chernihiv region, dozens of people, mostly women, stood in line along a street holding up photographs of men they hoped would be included in the swap.

Many said they had relatives who were missing in action and that they had come to find out any news they could from those who had just been released.

"It’s very difficult," said Oksana Astapenko, carrying her daughter Anhelina on her shoulders and tearing up as she spoke.

"We're still hoping. We don't know if he's in captivity or not… he's just missing. We're hoping for positive news that he's there."​
 

Ukraine’s Zelensky expected to visit Berlin on Wednesday, sources say

REUTERS
Published :
May 26, 2025 19:33
Updated :
May 26, 2025 19:33

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to visit Berlin on Wednesday, several sources told Reuters on Monday.

A spokesperson for the chancellery declined to comment on the planned meeting, which was first reported by news outlet Spiegel.

Spiegel said Zelensky would hold talks with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz about possible steps towards further technical talks between Ukraine and Russia as well as briefing him on plans for a new EU sanctions package against Russia, Spiegel reported.

The leaders are also expected to discuss further military support for Ukraine, the report said, adding that Zelensky would also meet with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Shortly after taking office earlier this month, Merz travelled with his French, British and Polish counterparts to Kyiv where they declared that Russia would be hit by new punitive measures if it did not heed calls for a 30-day ceasefire within days.​
 

Russia fired record barrage of 355 drones at Ukraine overnight: Kyiv
AFP Kyiv, Ukraine
Published: 26 May 2025, 15: 08

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People look at a multistory residential building damaged following a drone strike in Kyiv on May 25, 2025, amid Russian invasion in Ukraine. Russia launched a record number of drones against Ukraine and killed 12 people across the country, officials said on May 25, even as Kyiv and Moscow completed their biggest prisoner exchange since the start of the war. AFP

Russia fired 355 drones at Ukraine overnight in the biggest such attack since Moscow’s 2022 invasion, Kyiv said on Monday, a day after Russian strikes killed 13 people.

US President Donald Trump earlier said that Russian leader Vladimir Putin had gone “absolutely crazy” in a rare rebuke of the Kremlin chief as Moscow bombed Ukraine during a major prisoner exchange.

Ukraine’s air force said Russia had launched “355 Shahed-type drones”, including decoys, as well as nine cruise missiles, with its spokesman Yuriy Ignat confirming to AFP that it was the largest drone attack since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The drone strikes on Monday came after what Kyiv described as a weekend of “terror”.

Kyiv has so far not reported deaths from the drone attack, but said that Russian shelling in the last 24 hours had killed one civilian man in the north-eastern Sumy region, which has been under relentless Russian attack for several months.

Air alerts in Kyiv lasted for six hours, the capital’s authorities said.

In the western Khmelnytsky region, local authorities said that 18 residential buildings were damaged by Russian drones.

The head of the southern Odesa region said a 14-year-old boy was wounded there.​
 

Russia says Ukraine, backed by Europe, is trying to wreck peace talks

REUTERS
Published :
May 27, 2025 16:58
Updated :
May 27, 2025 16:58

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Russia's Defence Minister Andrei Belousov attends a military parade on Victory Day, marking the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Red Square in central Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2025. Photo : REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/Files

Russia's defence ministry said on Tuesday that Ukraine, backed by certain European countries, had taken several 'provocative steps' aimed at derailing Moscow-initiated direct peace talks with Kyiv.

The first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years took place on May 16, but failed to produce a ceasefire agreement.

"At the initiative of the Russian Federation, direct Russian-Ukrainian dialogue on a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine has been resumed," the ministry said.

"At the same time, the Kyiv regime, supported by certain European countries, has taken a number of provocative steps aimed at disrupting the negotiation process."

According to the Russian ministry, since May 20, Ukraine has significantly increased drone and missile attacks on Russian territory, using Western-supplied munitions and targeting civilian areas.

Between the evening of May 20 and the morning of May 27, Russian air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 2,331 Ukrainian drones, including 1,465 outside the immediate conflict zone, the ministry said.

Ukraine has also reported a sharp escalation in Russian attacks on its territory, including a record barrage on Sunday night.

The intensification prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to comment that Russian President Vladimir Putin had "gone absolutely CRAZY," while also threatening new sanctions.

Russia's defence ministry on Tuesday said that its strikes were retaliatory, precise, and targeted solely at military facilities and enterprises within Ukraine’s military-industrial complex.​
 

Kremlin on Trump's 'playing with fire' comments: National interests paramount for Putin

REUTERS
Published :
May 28, 2025 20:53
Updated :
May 28, 2025 20:53

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Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a statement to the media at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia May 11, 2025. Photo : Sergey Bobylev/Host agency RIA Novosti/Handout via REUTERS/Files

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, in comments about US President Donald Trump's remark that Vladimir Putin was "playing with fire" by refusing to engage in ceasefire talks with Kyiv, said the national interest was paramount for the Russian leader.

He also said in a conference call with reporters on Wednesday that a possible meeting of Putin with Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy should take place only following preparations and talks.​
 

Is Trump’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine war a geopolitical gamble or a strategic withdrawal?

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An explosion of a drone lights up the sky over the city during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine May 24, 2025. PHOTO: REUTERS

When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, he vowed to end the Russia-Ukraine war, saying that he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. This aptitude, repeated relentlessly during his campaign, hinged on his self-proclaimed prodigy for dealmaking and personal rapport with Vladimir Putin. Yet over 100 days into his presidency, the war rages on, as well as Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities have intensified. Trump's strategy has devolved into a pattern of contradictions and disengagement. The US president's initial bravado has collided with the grim realities of a war now in its fourth year, with escalating drone warfare and a large number of casualties on both sides. Trump's policy reversals—abandoning sanctions threats to Russia by lowering them, downplaying the US leadership, prioritising rare-earth mineral deals with Ukraine—have left the Kremlin emboldened and strained transatlantic unity.

However, the roots of this shift lie in Trump's transactional worldview. His administration inherited a war that had settled into a brutal attritional grind under President Joe Biden, with Ukraine relying on Western arms to thwart Russian advances. However, where Biden's approach marked the war as a struggle for "democratic sovereignty," Trump has treated it as a nuisance—an obstacle to his vision of a grand bargain with Moscow. Since Trump's win, US direct involvement has decreased. Meanwhile, enforcement of sanctions has ground to a halt and ceasefire plans have only advanced demands favourable to Russia. Yet in May 2025 alone, Russia carried out its largest aerial bombardment in the war. In this respect, Trump's recent calling of Putin "absolutely crazy" has been notable, but how much impact it will pose on the US approach remains a critical question.

The surge of Russian attacks coincided with Trump's diplomatic inertia. His sole tangible intervention—a two-hour call with Putin in mid-May—yielded little beyond vague Russian commitments to draft a "memorandum" on peace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky slammed Russia for the delay, while some other officials dismissed the "document" as a stalling tactic. Also, the US president's criticism of Putin contrasted sharply with his reproach of Zelensky, whom he accused of "causing problems," demanding that he "better stop."

The administration's failure to act decisively has had dire consequences. While Trump's Defense Intelligence Agency warned that Russia planned to fight through 2025, Trump at first kept pressuring Kyiv to make concessions without visible pressure on Russia to halt its attacks. Civilian casualties soared, with over 664 civilians killed and 3,425 injured, reported in the first four months of 2025, as reported by Kyiv Independent. All the while, the US president emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin by declining to impose pressure for an immediate ceasefire—backed by Europe—of meaningful sanctions. After Trump's two-hour phone call with Putin, he told reporters on May 19 that the call was "meaningful and frank" while the Russian leader declined to support the 30-day ceasefire plan. Putin instead ordered a "security buffer zone" along Ukraine's Eastern borders, and strikes on Ukraine's civilian buildings escalated to the heaviest bombings on May 10, with 70 missiles and almost 300 drones. Russian air raids continued on May 25, and Trump remained silent until May 27, when he finally addressed the massive aerial attacks on Ukraine. Posting on TruthSocial, Trump referring to the Russian President, said, "Something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY!" On the same day, sources interviewed by The Wall Street Journal said Trump is considering renewed sanctions, but he could also decide to not impose sanctions at all. One of Trumpʼs key considerations, according to US officials interview by The Wall Street Journal, was his belief that he knew Putin well and that the Russian leader would end the war as a favour.

Trump's dynamic of bluster and retreat has undermined US credibility. It left Kyiv to face intensified attacks and fractured Europe's trust. Critics argue that Trump's approach has been less about diplomacy than coercion, pressuring Ukraine to comply with the territorial concessions. It became explicit in May, when the US declined to join the European-led sanctions, instead suggesting that Kyiv and Moscow resolve the conflict "independently." For Ukraine, already strained by dwindling Western aid, the lack of US leadership has been critical.

The differing approaches of the Biden and Trump administrations divulge a dichotomy. Biden considered the war as "a defense of democratic values," rallying NATO allies to supply tanks, artillery, and air defence systems. His strategy reached a fragile stalemate, suggesting the preservation of Ukraine's territory while avoiding direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. On the other hand, Trump has been considering the war through a transactional viewpoint. His early moves—halting arms shipments to pressure Kyiv into ceasefire talks—allowed Russian forces to regain momentum in eastern Ukraine. Diplomatically, Trump sidelined European partners, insisting Ukraine and Russia negotiate bilaterally. This approach became more apparent when Vice President JD Vance said that the war is "not our conflict." It drew sharp rebukes in Kyiv. Consequently, the contrast extends to their handling of alliances. Biden's administration worked closely with Europe to coordinate sanctions and aid. By contrast, Trump's "America First" policy gave rise to cynicism. Therefore, European leaders question whether NATO can function without US commitment, particularly after Trump hinted at withdrawing troops from Europe's eastern border.

Trump's policy has been marked by a reluctance to leverage sanctions against Russia, a departure from the Biden-era consensus. Biden used to believe that economic pressure could curb Moscow's aggression. Where the European Union (EU) imposed 17 rounds of sanctions targeting Russian energy, finance, and technology sectors, Trump deemed such measures as obstacles to maximising opportunities for Americans. This shift was clear during Trump's call with Putin this May, where discussions focused less on ending the war than on post-conflict economic collaboration. The Kremlin later emphasised Trump's enthusiasm for Russian rare-earth minerals and energy exports—sectors critical to US tech and manufacturing. In the meantime, the lack of US enforcement diluted EU efforts to isolate Moscow. One EU diplomat remarked, "We cannot deter Putin if America prioritises trade over security."

Putin's chess game is complex. On May 27, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan went on a two-day visit to Moscow, and Russian stressed on bilateral relations rather than Ukraine. Russian sources have said they viewed Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman as potentially suitable venues for direct talks with Ukraine in a direct blow to Trump who posed himself as the chief negotiator to end the war. The Kremlin's state media in February, framed Trump's deference as a victory. For Putin, Trump's isolationism validates a long-standing assumption: that Western resolve would fracture under economic and political pressure.

In March, the EU unveiled an 800-billion-euro defence plan with a view to bolstering arms production and making a joint rapid-response force. However, internal divisions persist. Poland and the Baltics advocate for unswerving military aid to Ukraine, while Hungary's Viktor Orbán—echoing Trump's rhetoric—calls for pragmatic engagement with Moscow. The EU's May 2025 sanctions package, targeting Russian LNG and shadow tankers, marks progress but highlights lacunae. Europe lacks the capacity to replace US intelligence sharing or advanced air defences. It leaves Ukraine vulnerable to missile strikes. At the same time, Trump's threats to withdraw US troops from NATO's eastern flank have given rise to concerns. If the US does not ensure its commitments, Europe cannot help but prepare to defend itself. For Ukraine, Europe's resolve is a lifeline, but doubts linger. Although the EU amplified aid, Kyiv's battlefield prospects depend on sustained Western unity—a unity questioned and puzzled by Trump's ambivalence.

Trump's approach to Ukraine raises questions regarding transatlantic ties (with NATO and the EU) as it has insofar left Kyiv fighting for survival with waning support. For Europe, the lesson should be clear. The EU's push for strategic autonomy faces immense hurdles—from internal divisions to military inadequacies. For the US, the cost of winning a trade deal with Russia may be the loss of its role as the self-proclaimed anchor of global stability. The war in Ukraine has become a referendum on something far larger: whether a world order built on rules and alliances can withstand the rise of transactional nationalism. In the era of a geopolitical and geoeconomic crux, ambiguity is the only certainty.

Kawsar Uddin Mahmud is a geopolitical analyst and researcher based in Dhaka.​
 

Russia masses 50,000 troops near Sumy front
Says Ukraine’s Zelensky; US, Russia clash in public over intensifying war

Russia has massed more than 50,000 troops, including some of its best forces, near Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region, but Kyiv has taken steps to prevent them from conducting a large-scale offensive, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The build-up comes as Russia appears to be gearing up for a summer offensive in Ukraine while Kyiv waits for Moscow to present a memorandum laying out its conditions to proceed with ceasefire talks.

Sumy lies across the border from Russia's Kursk region where Ukraine previously seized and held a pocket of land for months, before being almost fully pushed out last month, although it says it still holds some small areas there.

"Their largest, strongest forces are currently on the Kursk front," Zelensky told reporters on Tuesday. "To push our troops out of the Kursk region and to prepare offensive actions against the Sumy region."

Putin has said he wants a "buffer zone" along Russia's border with Ukraine. Zelensky said he believed Russia wants to carve out an area of Ukrainian territory about 10 km (6 miles) deep.

Kremlin rebuffs a call by Zelensky for a three-way summit with Trump and Putin

Meanwhile, the Kremlin yesterday rebuffed a call by Zelensky for a three-way summit with Trump and Putin.

The United States and Russia also quarrelled in public yesterday over the intensifying Ukraine war after US President Donald Trump warned that President Vladimir Putin was "playing with fire"

Trump, in a post on Truth Social, said that Putin was playing with fire and cautioned that "REALLY BAD" things would have happened already to Russia if it was not for Trump himself.

Top Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev, a former president, dismissed Trump's criticism.

"Regarding Trump's words about Putin 'playing with fire' and 'really bad things' happening to Russia. I only know of one REALLY BAD thing — WWIII. I hope Trump understands this!" Medvedev wrote in English on the social media platform X.​
 

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