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[🇧🇩] Trump's Victory/Tariff/ Bangladesh

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[🇧🇩] Trump's Victory/Tariff/ Bangladesh
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Partial tariff relief is a hard-won victory
A sober understanding of the new reality is necessary moving forward


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VISUAL: STAR

In securing a 20 percent tariff rate from Washington, Dhaka has navigated a perilous new era of US trade diplomacy. The immediate reaction is justifiably one of relief. A potential 35 percent tariff, which would have been catastrophic for the country's primary export engine, has been averted. This is a hard-won victory for Bangladesh.

Yet, this relief should be tempered with a sober understanding of the new reality. While National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman rightly praised the outcome as "good news," the more measured comments from Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin are equally telling. His admission that Bangladesh "expected a rate below 20 percent" reveals the fine print of modern transactional diplomacy: a win is not about achieving the ideal, but about securing a competitive position in a world of hard bargains. The new 20 percent benchmark, applied under the reciprocal trade framework, will stack atop the country's existing average tariff of 16 percent, pushing the total levy to 36 percent. While steep, the rate remains workable, precisely because it is not unique to Bangladesh. The same formula applies to all nations, ensuring the country stays competitive with key rivals.

Indeed, the outcome keeps Bangladesh in lockstep with Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia, and only marginally behind Pakistan's 19 percent. The contrast comes from the fate of India. Hit with a punitive 25 percent tariff, New Delhi's experience demonstrates that in President Donald Trump's Washington, strategic partnership alone is no longer a shield. Access to the world's largest consumer market is now explicitly tied to a country's willingness to align with American priorities.

The price of this access is clear. Bangladesh's negotiators wisely focused their commitments on purchasing US agricultural products, a move that serves food security goals and fosters essential goodwill. That was an astute concession. It illustrates that successful negotiation is no longer confined to tariff percentages but requires a holistic approach, linking trade to everything from food policy to strategic cooperation.

Therefore, this episode must serve as more than a momentary success; it must be a blueprint for the future. The era of predictable, rules-based trade relations is giving way to a more fluid and demanding environment. The White House has declared that each country's tariff rate reflects the "depth of its commitment" to US interests. Dhaka has proven it can meet this challenge, but the demands will not cease. The government should be applauded for securing this initial victory, as a failure to do so would have disrupted exports to the country's single biggest market. But the key takeaway is that such negotiations are the new normal. Bangladesh must now institutionalise this capacity for agile, interest-based statecraft. The hard work of navigating this complex new world order, where every trade benefit comes with a cost, has only just begun.​
 
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Defence Adviser Dr. Khalilur Rahman and Commerce Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin opines on Tariff wins for Bangladesh in DC, well spoken comments in Bengali. Happy to see well-qualified folks for a change in Bangladesh governance structure.



 
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Deal information to be made public with US’ consent: Commerce Adviser

UNB
Published :
Aug 02, 2025 18:12
Updated :
Aug 02, 2025 18:12

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Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin has said the information in the trade agreement following the negotiations with the United States will be released after the agreement is signed, subject to the consent of the United States.

“So, due to our rights to information (Right to Information Act- RTI), and based on the US’ consent, we will definitely disclose the agreement,” he said, adding that there will be a joint statement once the deal is signed.

The Commerce Adviser said it was to some extent unfortunate that the issue of the agreement was leaked. “You have seen, too. There is nothing against the country’s interest actually.”

He made the remarks during a conversation with Minister (Press) at the Bangladesh Embassy in Washington Golam Mortoza who shared it from his verified Facebook page for the media.

The Commerce Adviser said they have clearly come out from those issues which might go indirectly against the country’s interest and mainly they involved the private sector.

He said there is no alternative to increasing Bangladesh’s capacity if they want to implement the trade agreement. “At the same time, there is no room for complacency about this.”

“Its success or failure will depend on our capacity and competitiveness. To get fruits from this, we need to boost our capacity and competitiveness. I have heard that there is no room for complacency. I hundred percent agree on this. Under no circumstances, we have no room for complacency,” he added.

Asked about the purchase of 25 Boeing aircraft from the United States, Bashir said the United States did not raise the issue at all in the trade talks. “This issue is one-sided. Boeing made 12 aircraft last year. So according to this agreement, they may be able to deliver the first aircraft in 2037.”

The United States was interested in agricultural products. Bangladesh imports food products worth $ 15 to 20 billion and the US is also a large producer of agricultural products.

Bangladesh has mainly talked about reducing the trade deficit on the basis of energy and agricultural products, products that Bangladesh already has to import.

The Commerce Adviser said the trade deficit with Bangladesh is about $6 billion. Bangladesh can try to reduce the trade deficit of $2 billion by increasing the import of cotton, soybean, corn and wheat products.

He said this approach will help Bangladesh significantly to reduce the trade deficit. “Boeing aircraft are not a very important issue,” Bashir said, adding that “You don’t buy it every day but you buy soybean every day.”

The Adviser laid emphasis on boosting the operational capacity of the aircraft and the interim government is trying to do that.

Bangladesh’s national flag carrier Biman Bangladesh Airlines has the potential to transport an additional 10 million passengers, he said, adding that considering that, 25 aircraft are not much.

The Commerce Adviser dismissed the speculations of any secret deal with the United States in exchange for the reciprocal tariff reduction on Bangladeshi exports from 35 percent to 20 percent, saying all discussions prioritised the national interests.

“There is no room to ignore our own interests. Whatever we did, we did by prioritising our country—just as the US prioritises its national security,” the Adviser said.

He also noted that a Bangladeshi business delegation is currently in the USA, and “they will not do anything that goes against their own interests.”​
 
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BD gets decent, though not a superb deal

Zaidi Sattar
Published :
Aug 02, 2025 08:07
Updated :
Aug 02, 2025 08:07

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Finally, the wait is over. The Office of US Trade Representative (USTR) -- actually President Donald Trump -- announced what tariffs will apply to which country as their goods enter the US market. A new world trade order has emerged. Trading according to comparative advantage of nations will no longer be the basis for export success in the US market, which happens to be the world's largest single country market and an attractive destination for exports of all countries. In the new world of trading with the United States, a relatively better bilateral trade deal is what matters. A bad deal (i.e. relatively higher import tariffs) could significantly undermine competitiveness.

So, after several tenacious sessions of negotiations with USTR, Bangladesh has been accorded a "decent" rate of 20% tariff on our exports reaching US shores. This compares with Sri Lanka's 20%, Pakistan's 19%, and India's 25%. Other notable ones in the 20% category (includes 19% ones) are Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, and Cambodia. It is worth ruminating about what happened in our neighbourhood. Pakistan got a marginally sweeter deal with 19%, perhaps for the offer of exclusive rights for offshore oil exploration (by still unknown US oil company) off the coast of Southern Pakistan. India seems to have got a bad rap with the imposition of 25% tariffs, despite long negotiations for months, primarily because of its traditional resistance to open up its agriculture and dairy sector by lowering its 40% average tariffs in this sector. So, in relative terms, Bangladesh gets a decent though not a superb deal as a reward to the tenacious negotiations pursued by our official Team at the table. Whether or not it would have made a difference I have always argued that the nation might have been better served with the inclusion of a seasoned trade economist with a deeper understanding of the intricacies of domestic trade and tariff policies, which is not as simple as it might seem to the external world. Be that as it may, it is time to commend our negotiators for staying the course despite the uphill task they faced.

A brief summary of the notable features of the latest version of US reciprocal tariffs can be captured as follows (few countries not listed yet, may be due to negotiations not concluded yet):

• A baseline (minimum) tariff of 10% applies to UK and Falkland Islands;

• 15% tariff applies mostly to African countries, and few countries that have largely open economies or on particularly friendly terms with the USA (not necessarily allies); Turkey, S. Korea and New Zealand are other notables;

• 19-20% tariffs apply to countries that have shown eagerness to negotiate and offer as many zero-tariff concessions and offers to substantially raise imports from USA; 19% serves as a sweetener for countries that went the extra mile to appease USTR;

• 25-30% tariffs (India, South Africa) sound like punitive impositions for not reaching agreement, or some outstanding geopolitical issues;

• China-US trade negotiations remained inconclusive until now; so 30% previously imposed remain;

• Singapore, one of the most open economies is not named; my understanding is that there is an impasse with pharmaceutical tariffs;

• Quite a few countries are also missing in the list.

What could be a quick take away?

First, the baseline tariff of 10% was first imposed uniformly across all countries when President Trump first talked about launching reciprocal tariffs. To my mind, a theoretical case for this was made by the Council of Economic Advisers to enact a "tariff offset" for the perennial over-valuation of the US dollar (undermining competitiveness of US export products to start with).

Second, this a new world of differentiated tariffs for countries rather than products. This is contrary to the fundamental principle of rules-based trade (MFN principle) regarding equal treatment of all WTO member nations. If I understand it right, the other novelty is that a country is subject to one import tariff for all its exports to the USA. For Bangladesh, that means all its exports ranging from garments and footwear to ceramic tiles and handicrafts will be subject to the same tariff rate. Since 90% of our current exports are RMG, the focus has been on what tariffs will this be subject to versus the rate for competitors like India, Vietnam, and so on. But Footwear, toys, etc., two promising exports, will now be facing the 20% rate as well.

Third, there is also a punitive tariff for "transshipments"; i.e. for re-exporting goods that originate from another country, in order to ensure that the applied tariff is only meant for the country concerned. China or any other country subject to higher tariffs cannot take the advantage of shipping their goods via another country.

Finally, in relative terms, the 20% rate for Bangladesh gives our exporters some respite and a competitive landscape for entry to the US market. In the new world of reciprocal tariffs, there will be a lot of churning in the market with enormous redirection or trade diversion happening in the months ahead. The global world of trade is no longer the same. So our exporters need to gear up if they wish to carve out a bigger slice of the potential.

To sum up, as I understand it, the 20% rate shows that imports from Bangladesh will not be subject to punitive tariffs, under the present tariff scheme. Given the overall distribution of the new tariffs I consider 20% in the moderate range, though all the reciprocal tariffs could be considered punitive if compared to pre-Trump US tariffs which had an effective rate of 2-3% only and the US economy was among the most open economies in the world. Not any more.

(Dr. Zaidi Sattar is Founder Chairman, Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh.​
 
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As Trump tariff tempest calms, US buyers begin activating trade
Some already ask BD suppliers to resume production, shipment


Jasim Uddin
Published :
Aug 02, 2025 23:36
Updated :
Aug 02, 2025 23:36

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Apparel exporters and their US buyers are gathering wits for full-steam resumption of trade as the Trump tariff tempest calms with the United States deciding to settle on a pared-down 20-percent reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi exports.

Some of the buyers are already asking their suppliers to resume production and shipment which previously had made a pause amid uncertainty over the threatened 35-percent reciprocal tariff and breathtaking negotiations to scale the barrier, according to the industry-insiders.

Talking to The Financial Express, Shovon Islam, Managing Director of Sparrow Group, one of the leading US-focused exporters with annual exports of around $300 million-more than half to the US-said the tariff concerns had halted approximately US$5 million worth of orders, equivalent to 300,000 pieces of garments.

"But, after the tariff was reduced to 20 per cent, our buyers got back in touch and gave us the go-ahead," he said about the turnaround.

Nearly one and half a dozen iconic US buyers have not asked for halting their production or passed on the burden of the further tariff hike. "As I have discussion with many retailers, they are ready to increase their retail prices considering tariff and other costs, which may cause a reduction in apparel demand and result in lesser orders for next couple of months."

He adds: "Even with the new rate, they haven't asked for any cost-sharing-they absorbed the impact themselves."

Similarly, Asian Group, a leading apparel exporter based in Chattogram, with annual exports worth $340 million-93 per cent of which go to the US-has welcomed the breakthrough in negotiations.

"Two of our largest US buyers, Target and Walmart, did not halt their production or shipments during the uncertainty," says Khondaker Belayet Hossain, Executive Director of the corporate, Asian Group. "However, some buyers are still taking a wait-and-see approach since the deal has yet to be formally signed. It may take another two to three days before they make further decisions."

After the 10-percent tariff hike in April, a few buyers informally requested cost-sharing measures from suppliers. "They didn't ask directly, but in cases of delayed shipments, they sought up to a 3.9-percent discount-something that hadn't occurred before," Belayet notes.

Now that the reciprocal tariff has been fixed at 20 per cent, he anticipates that some buyers might again seek partial cost-sharing. "It really depends on the strength of the buyer-supplier relationship. When suppliers have leverage, buyers are more cautious," he says.

He also emphasizes the need for Bangladeshi manufacturers to reduce dependency on a single market like the US and focus on lowering production costs by at least 1.0 to 2.0 per cent. "Factories must invest in automation and adopt industrial engineering methods to reduce wastage and boost efficiency," suggests Mr Belayet, a former BGMEA director.

SM Majedur Rahim, Director of Giant Group, another major exporter with 70-percent capacity dedicated to the US market, echoes the sentiment.

"This reciprocal tariff rate brings immediate relief to both buyers and suppliers," he says. "It restores some competitiveness for Bangladeshi exporters."

He notes that while most buyers are on summer holidays, conversations are ongoing. "Buyers are now assessing how the new tariff-effective from 7 August-will affect final retail prices."

He warns that rising retail prices could suppress consumer demand in the US. "Next month's orders may see some slowdown. But Bangladesh is still in a relatively favourable position because we export basic, low-cost products."

Rakibul Alam Chowdhury, Chairman of RDM Group, which exports $65 million annually-70 per cent of which go to the US-informs that production for some previously halted orders has now resumed.

"Buyers who had paused production for goods scheduled to ship after 30 July have now asked us to restart," he told the FE. "We expect formal confirmation once US offices reopen fully on Monday."

Exporters are still uncertain about the 40-percent local-value -addition requirement tied to the tariff regime. "We don't know yet whether this clause applies. If it does, some factories will struggle, because achieving that level of local value addition isn't feasible for all products," Chowdhury added.

He urges manufacturers to build direct relationships with buyers instead of relying on buying houses. "To improve value addition, exporters must enhance their in-house merchandising capabilities," said Chowdhury, a former BGMEA vice president.

SM Khaled, Managing Director of Snowtex Group, another major exporter, says a large order from a US buyer had been on hold but is now expected to be confirmed within the next week.

"We haven't had formal communication yet, but the fear that the order might shift to another country is largely gone," he says, on a note of relief. "Now, the question is how much they will order, because prices will rise, and that could dampen consumption."

As Bangladesh faces 20-percent tariff-compared to Vietnam's as much, 20 per cent, and India's 25 per cent-its competitive standing has improved, but Mohammad Hatem, President of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), feels that exporters must stay alert.

"President Trump could revise tariffs on India or change Vietnam's trade status at any moment," he warns. "We must be proactive and not allow buyers to pass the entire tariff burden onto us. Tariffs have risen for everyone, and right now, Bangladesh has no direct substitutes."

Hatem also points out that China's declining export volume presents an opportunity. "Vietnam, due to its dependency on Chinese raw materials, could face challenges. With combined tariffs on Chinese-origin products reaching up to 64 per cent, many buyers will be looking for alternative sourcing options-and Bangladesh stands to gain."​
 
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Tariff can be reduced by using US raw materials
BGMEA says

Staff Correspondent 03 August, 2025, 00:35

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Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association organises a press conference at the BGMEA Complex in the capital on Saturday to address the impact of US reciprocal tariff. | Press release

The recently announced 20 per cent reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi goods exported to the United States could be reduced further by using US raw materials, said business leader Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu.

The president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association was addressing reporters during a press conference at the BGMEA Complex in the capital on Saturday, discussing the US reciprocal tariff.

‘According to the clause F of section 3 (pages 13 and 14) of the US Executive Order 14257 on reciprocal duty, if a product exported to the US contains 20 per cent or more US-origin contents (raw materials), the reciprocal tariff would not apply to that portion,’ he added.

For example, if an RMG item worth $100 contains 26 per cent US content, then the reciprocal tariff could only be imposed on the value of the remaining 74 per cent.

Babu said that if this provision could be utilised effectively, it would offer significant tariff relief for the exporters.

However, he said that the implementation process of this clause remains unclear.

‘It is not specified how this rule would be applied or through which mechanism. We need greater clarity on this from the US side,’ he added.

He also stated that they would discuss this with the US side and US Customs and Border Protection regarding the execution of this clause, including traceability, mechanisms, greater transparency, detailed guidance, and clarification.

He also stated that approximately 75 per cent of the readymade garment items exported to the US were made from cotton.

He also said that if they could obtain a tariff waiver, there would be no pressure to import more US cotton and synthetic fibres, as this, in turn, could bring the effective tariff down below 20 per cent.

He also said that the reduction in reciprocal tariff from 35 per cent to 20 per cent brought some relief for the Bangladeshi exporters.

‘However, we have no room for self-satisfaction as competitors like India, Vietnam, China, and Pakistan are unlikely to be idle. They will continue negotiations and lobbying, and at any point, their tariff rates may drop even further,’ he added.

‘The latest US executive order mentioned that trade or security agreement talks were still ongoing with several countries. Bangladesh must remain engaged in this diplomatic process,’ he said.

He also expressed concerns, saying that the buyers might now face additional financial pressure.

‘To purchase the same volume of goods, buyers would need to arrange for 20 per cent more capital,’ he noted, saying that if a buyer has that capacity, they would proceed, and if not, they might resort to bank loans.

And if they don’t qualify for loans, they could reduce the number of orders. That’s where the concern lies, he added.

Moreover, the additional duty burden could ultimately fall on the end consumers, and if consumers reduce their purchases in response to higher retail prices, that too could lead to a decline in order volumes.

‘However, we are hopeful the market won’t head in that direction. At least one full season will be needed to truly understand how this plays out,’ he added.

Responding a question from a journalist on who would bear the reciprocal tariff, he said that about 95 per cent of the RMG exports operate under the Free-on-Board model, where the buyer is responsible for all charges after shipment—including import duties.

‘So far, no buyer has explicitly said they won’t bear the cost of this new countervailing duty. Therefore, we are assuming they will cover it,’ he added.

However, he said that they don’t want to jump ahead and make assumptions, but if buyers wish to open a discussion, they are ready to engage.

He urged the government to provide sustained policy support to ensure the sector’s competitiveness concerning the NBR, customs, ports, and gas and electricity supply.

Members of the BGMEA board of directors were also present at the event.​
 
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US trade adviser says Trump tariff rates unlikely to change

Some trade ministers "want to talk more and see how they can work differently with US," says trade representative​

By AFP
August 03, 2025


US President Donald Trump gestures while boarding Air Force One to depart for New Jersey, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, August 1, 2025. — Reuters

US President Donald Trump gestures while boarding Air Force One to depart for New Jersey, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, August 1, 2025. — Reuters

New US tariff rates are "pretty much set" with little immediate room for negotiation, Donald Trump's trade adviser said in remarks aired Sunday, also defending the president's politically driven levies against Brazil.

Trump, who has wielded tariffs as a tool of American economic might, has set tariff rates for dozens of economies, including the European Union, at between 10% and 41% come August 7, his new hard deadline for the duties.

In a pre-taped interview broadcast Sunday on CBS's "Face the Nation," US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said "the coming days" are not likely to see changes in the tariff rates.

 
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