[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

[Saif]

Hundreds of Rohingyas await to enter Bangladesh

Breaking News, International News & Multimedia

thedailynewnation.com

Hundreds of Rohingyas await to enter Bangladesh
22 Apr 2024, 12:00 am
Staff Reporter :

Thousands of Rohingyas have sought refuge along the banks of the Naf River on the Myanmar side, waiting to cross into Bangladesh amidst escalating conflict between the military junta and rebel factions in the Arakan region.

Sources report that Myanmar is in turmoil due to the ongoing warfare between the junta and armed rebel groups.

According to reports, hundreds of Rohingya men, women, and children have gathered on the banks of the Naf River near Teknaf, attempting to enter Bangladesh.

In response, law enforcement authorities are taking stringent measures to prevent Rohingya infiltration into Bangladesh.

Law enforcement is maintaining a vigilant watch both day and night to ensure tight security.

Despite these efforts, locals claim that several Rohingyas have managed to clandestinely enter Bangladesh.

It's estimated that around 2,000 Rohingyas are seeking to enter Bangladesh, hiding in various areas along the border.

Additionally, there have been instances of pushback after the detention of some Rohingyas arriving by boat. This situation has persisted along the border for several days.

Sources said several thousand Rohingyas have come and taken shelter in different places on Shahporir Island since April 11, (the night of Eid).

They took shelter with their relatives in Rohingya camps. However, BGB claims that they are not aware of any Rohingya infiltration.

Meanwhile, pushbacked Rohingya claims, this time, along with the Myanmar army, the Arakan Army (AA), the armed forces of the Mugads, have attacked the Muslim minority in Rakhine. They are trying to move away as the conflict escalates.

The Bangladesh Coast Guard held a Rohingya-laden boat carrying 26 people while infiltrating along the Golapara Jhowban near the Naf River on Shahparir Island on Tuesday.

A Coast Guard official confirmed this information and said that the Rohingyas who infiltrated will be pushed back after verification.

According to Rohingya sources, several thousand Rohingyas are currently hiding in Mandipara Char across the Naf River, trying to enter Bangladesh through Shahparir Island. Sensing the opportunity, they are waiting to infiltrate.

Locals said there was a movement of suspects in the Jhowbagan and Kachubaniya remote fields of Teknaf Shahparir Island. Local people usually avoid going there because of the remoteness and poor communication system.

BGB members are not easily seen patrolling there. Rohingyas are trying to enter Bangladesh by choosing this difficult route.

Meanwhile, local people said that some Rohingyas have entered by getting help from four brokers on Shahparir Island. They alleged that the brokers take Tk 20,000 to 25,000 per person.

Most of the fleeing Rohingyas are residents of Buthedong village in Rakhine. Several of them are from some villages in Mangdu.​

 

[Saif]

JS body fears Myanmar border situation may deteriorate

The ongoing tense situation in Myanmar, bordering Bangladesh’s Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar, is likely to worsen next month, and as a result, more Rohingya people and...

www.newagebd.net

JS body fears Myanmar border situation may deteriorate
Staff Correspondent 28 April, 2024, 23:53

The ongoing tense situation in Myanmar, bordering Bangladesh's Bandarban and Cox's Bazar, is likely to worsen next month, and as a result, more Rohingya people and Myanmar nationals could attempt to infiltrate into Bangladesh, the Jatiya Sangsad standing committee on home ministry observed.

Such apprehension was expressed in a report placed in the meeting of the committee held in the parliament building on Sunday.

The report presented on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border situation said that by May 2024, the conflict situation in the region bordering Teknaf was likely to deteriorate further, several JS officials confirmed New Age.

'This could lead to increased attempts by the Rohingya people and members of Myanmar Border Police to enter Bangladesh,' the report stated.

The report highlighted the risks faced by Bangladesh due to the worsening situation along the Myanmar border.

The risks include influx of Myanmar nationals, including Rohingya, security threat along the unprotected land and marine borders of Bangladesh and Myanmar, smuggling of Rohingya rations, drug trading, subversive activities by terrorist groups, and the smuggling of firearms.

The report said that the Arakan Army could try to destabilise the Chittagong Hill Tracts area by taking advantage of its affinity with local ethnic communities.

According to meeting insiders, in the previous meeting of the committee, the senior secretary of the public security department of the home ministry mentioned that effective action was not taken against the culprits after the Bayley Road fire.

Referring to the Bayley Road fire incident, he said that often a crackdown starts after an incident before everything becomes business as usual within a short time.

According to the press release of the Parliament Secretariat, the committee has recommended action against juvenile gangs in addition to urging everyone to come forward to eliminate drugs.

In the meeting, the committee recommended that all forces under the home ministry should be more aware and vigilant in maintaining law and order.

Committee members and home minister Asaduzzaman Khan, Shamsul Alam Dudu, Samil Uddin Ahmed Shimul, Moyj Uddin Sharif, Sanowar Hossain, Chayan Islam, Md Saddam Hossain,

and Hasina Bari Chowdhury attended the meeting presided over by committee chairman Benjir Ahmed.​

 

[Saif]

Three Bangladeshis injured in mine explosions along Myanmar border in Bandarban

Three Bangladeshis have been injured in two separate incidents of landmine explosions at Naikhongchhari in Bandarban along the Myanmar border. Two people were injured in the first blast near border pillar No. 47 in the Fultali area on Saturday night and the second explosion in the same area injure

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Three Bangladeshis injured in mine explosions along Myanmar border in Bandarban
Published :
May 05, 2024 20:30
Updated :
May 05, 2024 20:30

Three Bangladeshis have been injured in two separate incidents of landmine explosions at Naikhongchhari in Bandarban along the Myanmar border.

Two people were injured in the first blast near border pillar No. 47 in the Fultali area on Saturday night and the second explosion in the same area injured a third person on Sunday morning, said Nurul Absar Emon, chairman of Naikhongchhari Sadar Union Council.

All of them crossed the border into Myanmar illegally to bring cattle, Absar said.

The injured are Md Rafique from Ramu in Cox's Bazar, Mohammad Abdullah of Garjania, and Rashid Ahmed of Kachchhapia, reports bdnews24.com.

One of the explosions caused the dismemberment of Abdullah's both legs. He was sent to Chattogram Medical College Hospital in a critical condition.

The two others were transferred to Cox's Bazar District Hospital.

Md Ashikur Rahman, resident medical officer of the district hospital, said one of the injured was brought in a critical condition on Saturday night and the other on Sunday morning.

Saber Ahmed, member of Naikhongchhari Sadar Union, said Border Guard Bangladesh strengthened security along the border.

Bangladeshis experienced casualties in mine blasts along the Myanmar border several times in the recent years amid intense fighting between the Myanmar military and rebels in the Rahine state.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar armed group captures hundreds of junta personnel

A Myanmar ethnic armed group said on Monday it had captured a military command and taken hundreds of junta personnel prisoner in...

www.newagebd.net

Myanmar armed group captures hundreds of junta personnel
Agence France-Presse . Bangkok 07 May, 2024, 00:36

A Myanmar ethnic armed group said on Monday it had captured a military command and taken hundreds of junta personnel prisoner in western Rakhine state, the latest blow to the military.

Clashes have rocked Rakhine since the Arakan Army attacked security forces in November, ending a ceasefire that had largely held since the junta's 2021 coup.

The military still holds the state capital Sittwe but AA fighters have seized territory in surrounding districts, including bases on the border with India and Bangladesh.

A video released by the AA's media channel said the group had captured 'Military Operations Command 15' near the town of Buthidaung, around 90 kilometres north of Sittwe.

The video did not say when its fighters had captured the site but local media have reported regular clashes around Buthidaung in recent days.

'The video record of the deputy commander of MOC 15 after a certain period of siege,' read a message published in Burmese, Chinese and English.

After a 'final assault' the junta troops had 'faced total defeat and surrendered,' it said.

Images showed a long line of men, some wearing what appeared to be military uniforms, walking single file through a field.

Some were in shorts and T-shirts and sandals while others were not wearing any footwear. Some shots showed women and children accompanying the men.

One man with a bandage around his knee was limping and some were being carried in makeshift stretchers.

The video also showed around 200 people sitting in rows in a clearing and men in uniform and guns watching over them.

AFP has attempted to contact a junta spokesman for comment.

The AA is one of several armed ethnic minority groups in Myanmar's border regions, many of whom have battled the military since independence from Britain in 1948 over autonomy and control of lucrative resources.

The AA claims to be fighting for more autonomy for the state's ethnic Rakhine population.

In 2019 clashes between the AA and the military roiled the region and displaced around 2,00,000 people.

In 2017 the military launched a crackdown on the Rohingya minority there that is now the subject of a United Nations genocide court case.

Since the November outbreak, fighting had spread to 15 of Rakhine state's 17 townships, the UN's human rights chief said last month.

Hundreds have been killed or wounded and more than 3,00,000 displaced, it said.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar conflicts hinder repatriation of Rohingyas

Breaking News, International News & Multimedia

thedailynewnation.com

Myanmar conflicts hinder repatriation of Rohingyas
6 May 2024, 12:00 am

Staff Reporter :

The ongoing conflict between the Myanmar Army and Arakan Army forces continues to impede the establishment of a safe environment for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees who sought shelter in Bangladesh in 2017.

The intensity of the fighting has led to Myanmar Army personnel seeking refuge across the border in Bangladesh to ensure their safety, as they reportedly struggle to withstand the attacks from the Arakan forces.

On Sunday, a group of 88 members of the Myanmar Border Guard Police (BGP) crossed into Bangladesh through the Teknaf border, armed and seeking protection from the fierce clashes.

They surrendered to the Teknaf Coast Guard at the Shahparir and Nazirpara border areas, as confirmed by Lt. Tahsin Rahman, a media official of Coast Guard Chattogram (East).

Lt. Rahman stated, "The surrendered BGP members would be handed over to the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) soon."

The official further added that they are ready for any situation along the border.

Mohammad Islam, a local resident, said, "We have been hearing gunfire from within Myanmar and witnessing the influx of BGP members seeking refuge in Bangladesh.

Additionally, we have also heard that there are reports of Rohingyas attempting to enter Bangladesh through the border."

Previously, a total of 618 members of the BGP and Myanmar military were sent back to their countries twice. Of these, 288 BGP military personnel were repatriated on April 25 and 330 on February 15 by Bangladesh.

Despite numerous attempts, the repatriation of Rohingya Muslims to their homes in Rakhine State has not been implemented, even six years after the initial displacement in 2017.

The international community has always vowed to create a safe, durable, and sustainable environment before commencing any repatriation process.

Even a group of Rohingya individuals who visited Rakhine last year reported that they did not find a safe environment for their return. Though China is mediating to resolve the crisis through the repatriation process, several tripartite meetings were also held, including the Kunming meeting in April last year.

However, Western countries, which are funding assistance for the Rohingyas, have expressed concerns about the lack of a favourable environment in Rakhine and the reluctance of the Rohingyas to return amid the volatile atmosphere. Even the United Nations said that repatriation of the Rohingyas amid a volatile situation would not be correct until a favourable condition prevailed there.

In recent months, fierce fighting between the Myanmar Army and Arakan Army has intensified, creating an atmosphere of fear along the borders. In the last several months, there has been fierce fighting between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army, creating an environment of fear along the borders.

Many mortar shells and bullets entered Bangladeshi territory during the clashes along the borders. The local residents of Bangladesh were also evacuated to avoid any casualties.

At that time, the Myanmar Army entered Bangladesh to save their lives, although they were handed over later when the situation improved.

The trend of entering Bangladeshi territory by the Myanmar Army and BGP members, however, is not being stopped, which is a clear sign of a volatile situation there.

But the lingering of conflicts is creating a burden for Bangladesh as the Rohingya repatriation process is not yet within sight.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar displaced now at 3m: UN

The number of displaced people in Myanmar has reached three million, the United Nations said, the vast majority forced to flee their homes by conflict unleashed by the military’s 2021 coup...

www.newagebd.net

Myanmar displaced now at 3m: UN
Agence France-Presse . Yangon 08 May, 2024, 23:13

The number of displaced people in Myanmar has reached three million, the United Nations said, the vast majority forced to flee their homes by conflict unleashed by the military's 2021 coup.

Around 2.7 million have fled since the putsch that toppled Aung San Suu Kyi's government after a short-lived experiment with democracy.

The coup sparked renewed clashes with established ethnic armed groups and birthed dozens of new 'People's Defence Forces' that the military has failed to crush.

'Myanmar stands at the precipice in 2024 with a deepening humanitarian crisis,' the UN's resident coordinator in the country said in a statement released on Monday.

An estimated one-third of those displaced are children, according to the statement.

Around half of the three million have been displaced since late last year, when an alliance of ethnic armed groups launched an offensive across northern Shan state, the statement said.

The offensive seized swathes of territory and lucrative trade crossings on the China border, posing the biggest threat to the junta since it seized power.

Myanmar's borderlands are home to a plethora of ethnic armed groups, many of whom have battled the military since independence from Britain in 1948 over autonomy and control of lucrative resources.

The UN said a severe funding shortfall was hampering its relief efforts, particularly ahead of the May-June cyclone season.

Last year cyclone Mocha smashed into western Myanmar's Rakhine state, killing at least 148 people.

More than 3,55,000 people are currently displaced in western Rakhine state, which has been rocked since November by clashes between the Arakan Army and the military, the UN said.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar's opposition gains ground in conflict, civilian casualties mount

Six months into an offensive against Myanmar ’s military government, opposition forces have made massive gains, but civilian casualties are rising sharply as regime troops increasingly turn toward scorched-earth tactics in the Southeast Asian country's bitter civil war, reports AP. The

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Myanmar's opposition gains ground in conflict, civilian casualties mount
Published :
May 09, 2024 11:41
Updated :
May 09, 2024 11:41

Six months into an offensive against Myanmar 's military government, opposition forces have made massive gains, but civilian casualties are rising sharply as regime troops increasingly turn toward scorched-earth tactics in the Southeast Asian country's bitter civil war, reports AP.

There is pressure on all fronts from powerful militias drawn from Myanmar's ethnic minority groups and newer resistance forces. Troops are retaliating with air, naval and artillery strikes on hospitals and other facilities where the opposition could be sheltered or aided.

"When the mass of people rise up against them, I think it terrifies them," said Dave Eubank, a former U.S. Special Forces soldier who founded the Free Burma Rangers, a humanitarian aid organization that has provided assistance to both combatants and civilians in Myanmar since the 1990s.

"They know that hospitals, churches, schools and monasteries are important places for human care, and gathering, and symbols — and they hammer them," said Eubank. "That's new."

Military forces now control l ess than half the country, but are holding on tenaciously to much of central Myanmar including the capital, Naypyidaw — recently targeted by drone attacks — and largest city, Yangon, and is far better armed than the resistance forces, with support from Russia and China.

"People have been saying that the regime was on the brink of collapse since two weeks after the coup," in February 2021, said Morgan Michaels, an analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project.

"On the other hand, obviously the regime is weaker than it's ever been.... so there's no doubt that it's in serious, serious trouble," he said.

Thet Swe, a spokesman for the military government, acknowledged an email from The Associated Press seeking comment but did not respond to questions.

As the fighting has moved into more populated areas, about 1 million people have been forced to flee their homes since the start of the offensive in October, contributing to the more than 3 million internally displaced people in the country of some 56 million, according to the U.N.'s humanitarian aid agency.

With the collapse of its health care system and food supplies dwindling, 18.6 million people are in need, up 1 million from a year ago, including 6 million children, the agency said.

HOW IT BEGAN

Opposition in Myanmar, also known as Burma, had been growing since the army seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, but it gained new momentum in October when major militias known collectively as the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched a joint offensive.

Together, the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army — among the most powerful militias formed by Myanmar's ethnic minorities — made quick advances.

As they captured huge swaths of territory largely in the north and northeast, including economically important border crossings with China and several major military bases, other ethnic armed groups sensed momentum and joined the fighting.

At the same time, People's Defense Forces — armed resistance groups that support the shadow National Unity Government, which views itself as Myanmar's legitimate administration — have been increasing in number and launching their own attacks, often supported and trained by the ethnic armed militias.

Both sides claim they have inflicted heavy tolls. And the military government under Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing has acknowledged it is under pressure, recently reintroducing conscription to increase its ranks.

That has pushed some young people into the resistance. Many more have fled to rural areas or neighboring countries to avoid fighting.

With the violence across its border, China helped broker a cease-fire in Myanmar's north in January with the Three Brotherhood Alliance. But the alliance's Arakan Army continues to fight in its home Rakhine state in the west and has made significant gains, while PDFs and other ethnic armed groups continue their own attacks elsewhere.

THE LATEST FIGHTING

The fiercest fighting in recent weeks has been in the southeast, where the main ethnic Karen fighting force, the Karen National Liberation Army, claimed in early April to have seized all the military bases in Myawaddy, the main town on the border with Thailand in Kayin state.

One army battalion clung to a position beside one of Myawaddy's two bridges, assisted by the Border Guard Force, a rival Karen group that had been in charge of border area security for years, conducting lucrative business by providing protection to area casino resorts with links to organized crime.

The force, which declared itself neutral in January, now controls the town with military government administrators still in place, highlighting how some militia groups still prioritize their own interests.

"This is not a black and white situation. This is not the regime reconquering and reconsolidating control," Michaels said of the fighting in the area. "This is the regime hanging on, keeping a foothold by the razor's edge."

Meanwhile, the military has pushed KNLA and People's Defense Forces out of Kawkareik, a strategically important town along the road that connects Myawaddy with the rest of the country.

Thousands of civilians have fled Myawaddy and Kawkareik. But many civilians haven't managed to escape.

At least 1,015 civilian deaths have been documented from Nov. 1 through May 1, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a watchdog group that tracks political arrests, attacks and casualties. It says 4,962 civilians have been killed overall since the military took power three years ago.

The watchdog blamed the deaths on the military's increasing use of scorched-earth tactics and fighting moving into more populated areas.

"The military has increasingly lost areas of control in recent months, which has only increased their use of this strategy, responding with airstrikes, shelling and so on in civilian areas," the AAPP said in an email.

The group added that the number of civilian deaths in the recent months of fighting is likely double what it reported, if not more, but that it can't document the numbers due to the intensification of the conflict.

Kyaw Zaw, a spokesperson for the shadow National Unity Government, said the military had destroyed 343 hospitals and clinics since it took power, and that those attacks had accelerated in the last two months, though he didn't have specific details.

Eubank, with the Free Burma Rangers, said he and his teams operating near the front lines have witnessed the military, known as the Tatmadaw, fighting with a " speed and force and a viciousness that we've never seen."

But in fighting a common enemy, the resistance is showing growing unity, he said.

"The Burma army is still stronger than any of these resistance groups, and if they want to bring a division or two to bear, they will win the battle, but they're not stronger than everybody else together," he said.

WHAT COMES NEXT

Whether that unity will continue if the regime falls, and if the disparate resistance forces can agree on a common path ahead for Myanmar, is an open question, Michaels said.

"On one hand, Myanmar is not Syria — there is common cause in fighting the regime," Michaels said. "But at the same time, as the regime has receded from some areas, there are at least indicators of potential future conflicts between groups."

He noted an incident in northern Shan state last month in which troops from two members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance — the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army — traded fire over a territorial dispute. One person was injured.

The groups quickly agreed to stand down, but the incident illustrates that territorial tension is real, Michaels said.

An opposition politician still inside the country, speaking on condition of anonymity for his own safety, said Myanmar's people have a common desire for peace and stability, but the various factions still pursue their own interests.

"It is hard to predict what is ahead, and they still don't have a single political direction or goal. I think there is quite a problem in this situation," he said.

"Myanmar is now at a crossroads."​

 

[Saif]

UN says 3m forced to flee in Myanmar conflict

Breaking News, International News & Multimedia

thedailynewnation.com

UN says 3m forced to flee in Myanmar conflict
9 May 2024, 12:00 am

Aljazeera :

The number of people in Myanmar forced from their homes by conflict now exceeds more than 3 million in what the United Nations has described as a "bleak milestone" for the country.

The UN said the number displaced had surged by 50 percent in the last six months as fighting escalated between the military and armed groups trying to remove the generals who seized power in a coup in February 2021.

"Myanmar has this week marked a bleak milestone with more than 3 million civilians now displaced nationwide amid intensifying conflict," the office of the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Myanmar said in a statement on Monday.​

 

[Saif]

Rohingya man shot dead in Teknaf

A Rohingya man was shot dead in a refugee camp under Hnila union of Teknaf upazila in Cox's Bazar this morning

www.thedailystar.net

Rohingya man shot dead in Teknaf

Star Online Graphics

A Rohingya man was shot dead in a refugee camp under Hnila union of Teknaf upazila in Cox's Bazar this morning.

The incident took place at Mochni registered Rohingya camp in the union around 8:30am, said Oficer-in-Charge Mohammad Osman Gani of Teknaf Police Station.

The deceased Mohammad Alam, 48, was a resident of E-Block of Mochni Rohingya camp.

According to the locals and police, Alam was stopped by five to six miscreants in the morning while going to a local arbitration meeting.

They picked up Alam and took him to an area near to a local school. He was shot in the head, the OC said, adding that he died on the spot.

We are suspecting that previous enmity might be the reason behind the killing, he added.

Police are trying to arrest those involved in the incident, the OC said.

The body has been sent to Cox's Bazar District Sadar Hospital's morgue for autopsy.​

 

[Saif]

Civilian casualties rise in Myanmar’s civil war

Breaking News, International News & Multimedia

thedailynewnation.com

Civilian casualties rise in Myanmar's civil war
11 May 2024, 12:00 am

AFP :

Six months into an offensive against Myanmar 's military government, opposition forces have made massive gains, but civilian casualties are rising sharply as regime troops increasingly turn toward scorched-earth tactics in the Southeast Asian country's bitter civil war.

There is pressure on all fronts from powerful fighters drawn from Myanmar's ethnic minority groups and newer resistance forces.

Troops are retaliating with air, naval and artillery strikes on hospitals and other facilities where the opposition could be sheltered or aided.

"When the mass of people rise up against them, I think it terrifies them," said Dave Eubank, a former US Special Forces soldier who founded the Free Burma Rangers, a humanitarian aid organization that has provided assistance to both combatants and civilians in Myanmar since the 1990s.

"They know that hospitals, churches, schools and monasteries are important places for human care, and gathering, and symbols – and they hammer them," said Eubank. "That's new."

Military forces now control less than half the country, but are holding on tenaciously to much of central Myanmar including the capital, Naypyidaw – recently targeted by drone attacks – and largest city, Yangon, and is far better armed than the resistance forces, with support from Russia and China.

"People have been saying that the regime was on the brink of collapse since two weeks after the coup," in February 2021, said Morgan Michaels, an analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project.

"On the other hand, obviously the regime is weaker than it's ever been…. so, there's no doubt that it's in serious, serious trouble," he said.

Thet Swe, a spokesman for the military government, denied that troops were targeting buildings and areas where civilians were sheltering, blaming their destruction instead on the opposition forces, without citing evidence.

"The military never harmed hospitals, churches and civilians in our country," he told The Associated Press in an email. "They did not use that strategy and are fighting the rebels only for the sovereignty of our country."

As the fighting has moved into more populated areas, about 1 million people have been forced to flee their homes since the start of the offensive in October, contributing to the more than 3 million internally displaced people in the country of some 56 million, according to the UN's humanitarian aid agency.

With the collapse of its health care system and food supplies dwindling, 18.6 million people are in need, up one million from a year ago, including six million children, the agency said.

Opposition in Myanmar, also known as Burma, had been growing since the army seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, but it gained new momentum in October when major fighters known collectively as the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched a joint offensive named "Operation 1027."

Together, the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – among the most powerful fighters formed by Myanmar's ethnic minorities – made quick advances.

As they captured huge swaths of territory largely in the north and northeast, including economically important border crossings with China and several major military bases, other ethnic armed groups sensed momentum and joined the fighting.

At the same time, People's Defense Forces (PDF)- armed resistance groups that support the shadow National Unity Government (NUG), which views itself as Myanmar's legitimate administration – have been increasing in number and launching their own attacks, often supported and trained by the ethnic armed fighters.

Both sides claim they have inflicted heavy tolls. And the military government under Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has acknowledged it is under pressure, recently reintroducing conscription to increase its ranks.

That has pushed some young people into the resistance. Many more have fled to rural areas or neighboring countries to avoid fighting.

With the violence across its border, China helped broker a cease-fire in Myanmar's north in January with the Three Brotherhood Alliance.

But the alliance's Arakan Army continues to fight in its home Rakhine state in the west and has made significant gains, while PDFs and other ethnic armed groups continue their own attacks elsewhere.

The fiercest fighting in recent weeks has been in the southeast, where the main ethnic Karen fighting force, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), claimed in early April to have seized all the military bases in Myawaddy, the main town on the border with Thailand in Kayin state, also known as Karen state.

One army battalion clung to a position beside one of Myawaddy's two bridges, assisted by the Border Guard Force, a rival Karen group that had been in charge of border area security for years, conducting lucrative business by providing protection to area casino resorts with links to organized crime.

The force, which declared itself neutral in January, now controls the town with military government administrators still in place, highlighting how some fighter groups still prioritize their own interests.

"This is not a black and white situation. This is not the regime reconquering and reconsolidating control," Michaels said of the fighting in the area. "This is the regime hanging on, keeping a foothold by the razor's edge."

Meanwhile, the military has pushed KNLA and People's Defense Forces out of Kawkareik, a strategically important town along the road that connects Myawaddy with the rest of the country.

Thousands of civilian have fled Myawaddy and Kawkareik. But many civilians haven't managed to escape.

At least 1,015 civilian deaths have been documented from November 1 through May 1, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), a watchdog group that tracks political arrests, attacks and casualties. It says 4,962 civilians have been killed overall since the military took power three years ago.

The watchdog blamed the deaths on the military's increasing use of scorched-earth tactics and fighting moving into more populated areas.

"The military has increasingly lost areas of control in recent months, which has only increased their use of this strategy, responding with airstrikes, shelling and so on in civilian areas," the AAPP said in an email.

The group added that the number of civilian deaths in the recent months of fighting is likely double what it reported, if not more, but that it can't document the numbers due to the intensification of the conflict.

Kyaw Zaw, a spokesperson for the shadow National Unity Government, said the military had destroyed 343 hospitals and clinics since it took power, and that those attacks had accelerated in the last two months, though he didn't have specific details.

Eubank, with the Free Burma Rangers, said he and his teams operating near the front lines have witnessed the military, known as the Tatmadaw, fighting with a " speed and force and a viciousness that we've never seen." But in fighting a common enemy, the resistance is showing growing unity, he said.

"The Burma army is still stronger than any of these resistance groups, and if they want to bring a division or two to bear, they will win the battle, but they're not stronger than everybody else together," he said.

Whether that unity will continue if the regime falls, and if the disparate resistance forces can agree on a common path ahead for Myanmar, is an open question, Michaels said.

"On one hand, Myanmar is not Syria – there is common cause in fighting the regime," Michaels said. "But at the same time, as the regime has receded from some areas, there are at least indicators of potential future conflicts between groups."

He noted an incident in northern Shan state last month in which troops from two members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army – traded fire over a territorial dispute. One person was injured.

The groups quickly agreed to stand down, but the incident illustrates that territorial tension is real, Michaels said.

An opposition politician still inside the country, speaking on condition of anonymity for his own safety, said Myanmar's people have a common desire for peace and stability, but the various factions still pursue their own interests.

"It is hard to predict what is ahead, and they still don't have a single political direction or goal. I think there is quite a problem in this situation," he said. "Myanmar is now at a crossroads."​