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[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh
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G Bangladesh Defense

Bangladesh bets on China diplomacy to end decade-long Rohingya impasse

Nearly a decade after the mass displacement of Rohingya from Myanmar, Bangladesh is turning to China in search of a breakthrough.

Dhaka announced this month it plans to hold trilateral talks with China and Myanmar, with State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir stressing that only a political settlement can resolve the crisis, reports Arab News.

Bangladesh insists any return must be safe, voluntary, dignified and sustainable.

China is central to the effort. Beijing maintains working relationships with both Dhaka and Naypyidaw, holds significant economic interests in the region and has been involved in Rohingya diplomacy before—helping establish a trilateral mechanism in 2019 that ultimately yielded little progress.

The renewed push carries fresh economic urgency.

Rakhine sits along critical infrastructure under China’s regional connectivity plans, including the Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port and pipelines linking Myanmar’s coast to China. A Bangladesh-China-Myanmar economic corridor is also under discussion—a project whose viability depends on stability in Rakhine.

China’s position is also diplomatically unique. Unlike Western governments constrained by sanctions, Beijing has maintained access to Naypyidaw while deepening ties with Dhaka—a combination few other actors can offer.

The obstacles remain serious. Myanmar’s civil war has reshaped the political landscape, and any return will have to address citizenship, security and political inclusion in areas where territorial control has shifted considerably.

For China, however, the incentives are real. A stable Rakhine secures infrastructure investments, deepens regional connectivity and reduces instability on its doorstep.

After nine years, the question is whether Beijing has the will to use its leverage.​
 
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