[🇧🇩] Iran, US- Israel War: It's Impact On Bangladesh

[Saif]

Iran envoy says Bangladeshi oil tankers can pass safely through Strait of Hormuz

Iran has said it will allow Bangladeshi oil tankers to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz despite rising tensions in the Middle East. Iran’s Ambassador to Dhaka Jalil Rahimi Jahanabadi made the announcement on Friday, following requests from Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Energy Min

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Iran envoy says Bangladeshi oil tankers can pass safely through Strait of Hormuz

bdnews24.com
Published :
Mar 13, 2026 21:10
Updated :
Mar 13, 2026 21:10

Iran has said it will allow Bangladeshi oil tankers to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz despite rising tensions in the Middle East.

Iran’s Ambassador to Dhaka Jalil Rahimi Jahanabadi made the announcement on Friday, following requests from Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood.

"I have spoken with Iranian government officials and they are ready," the envoy told reporters after an event in the capital.

"If you have vessels intended to transport fuel, we will allow them to pass safely so that the people of Bangladesh do not face hardship."

The announcement comes amid a stern warning from Tehran that it may halt all vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil transit point, unless the United States ceases its attacks on Iranian territory.

Iran has further warned the international community to brace for oil prices as high as $200 per barrel, as it maintains its promise to block any tankers attempting passage through the waterway.

The threat has already sent shockwaves through global markets, with nearly 20 percent of the world's daily oil consumption typically passing through this maritime chokepoint.

The assurance of safe passage is a critical lifeline for Bangladesh, which faces a potential fuel shortage amid the conflict.

Long queues at filling stations have become a common sight, and the government recently declared an early closure for universities to manage the energy deficit.

Ambassador Jahanabadi defended his country’s stance, characterising the current hostilities as a defencive response to US and Israeli aggression.

"We are not seeking a regional war, but we cannot remain indifferent while being attacked from American bases in neighbouring countries," he said, specifically cautioning Arab nations against allowing their soil to be used for military strikes against Iran.

Since the conflict intensified on Feb 28, the Persian Gulf has seen heightened instability, with reports of at least 16 vessels being targeted.​

 

[Saif]

Endgames and lessons for Bangladesh

Veteran diplomat, M Humayun Kabir, explains the current escalation of war in the Middle East and the ramifications for Bangladesh, in an exclusive interview with Ramisa Rob, Geopolitical Insights Editor at The Daily Star

www.thedailystar.net

Endgames and lessons for Bangladesh

14 March 2026, 10:26 AM
Ramisa Rob

Veteran diplomat, M Humayun Kabir, explains the current escalation of war in the Middle East and the ramifications for Bangladesh, in an exclusive interview with Ramisa Rob, Geopolitical Insights Editor at The Daily Star.

The Daily Star (TDS): How has the current war and the Trump administration been different to US foreign policy you witnessed firsthand?

M Humayun Kabir (MHK): During the Bush administration, we have seen the US attacks on Iraq. Then during Obama’s time as well, we have seen Libya disintegrating thanks to the US involvement. The US establishment does have a tendency to get involved in external wars. But what makes President Trump’s administration different from his predecessors is that both the Bush and Obama administrations used multilateral facilities more. They would rally different countries and build up a coalition, then go into military action.

President Trump is more inclined to take unilateral initiatives, without as much consultations or taking Congress into as much of a consideration before going to war. We have seen what he has done in Venezuela. My sense is, that example inspired him to do something similar in Iran.

TDS: Do you think Trump is looking for an exit plan?

MHK: After nearly two weeks, he must be looking at some exit plans. As political analysts have stated in the US press, the administration seems to have gone to war thinking it would have been a short one and lead to regime change in Iran. But Iran is an extremely resilient country. Trump said that the war will end soon, but Iran has said they are not ready to end it now.

After 8 years, in 1988, Iran agreed to a ceasefire with the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. Motjaba Khamenei, who has just been elected as the new supreme leader, also fought in the Iran-Iraq war. The leaders of Iran are veterans of the war. Iran wants to remove the “shadow of war,” permanently. Iranian scholars are indicating a few demands to the US: guarantee of non-aggression; withdrawal of US bases from the Gulf nations; acknowledge their right to useful use of nuclear energy; and compensation for damages caused from the war. All these elements provide a framework of what could come, as parties search for a way out.

TDS: How long can Iran last against the US — historically the most powerful nation in the world?

MHK: For Iran, the survival of the regime is not a big deal. Iran has been under sanctions for nearly 40 years. The war is devastating for them. The US and Israel have the capacity to destroy Iran. But the regime in Iran would bet on surviving at the minimum, despite the destruction. If someone can survive at rock bottom, it is difficult to push them down even further. Iran is dexterous at asymmetric warfare. They know they cannot fight the US and Israel face-to-face. They are using other tools: the power of geography and economy by choking the Strait of Hormuz, putting a lot of pressure on the Gulf nations, the entire international community and the US as well. Iran is using whatever leverage it has, and using it intelligently.

We, in Bangladesh, are not at war but we’re facing multiple challenges. We’re seeing huge lines at the petrol pumps. A panic has caught up with the users of petrol and fuel. Our economy is in a fragile state — our inflation will go up if the war continues for another few weeks. There are millions of expatriate workers living in the Middle East, who form the remittance lifeline. Due to the disruptions to economic activities in the region, many people will also lose work if the war continues.

TDS: How can Bangladesh’s government insulate the economy from negative impact in the long-run?

MHK: The current government is talking to different countries for oil supply, such as gasoline from China and diesel from India. In the long-term, we need to focus on renewable energy. So far, we have only been talking about it and there has been practically no contribution of renewable energy to our energy supply. This war should be a lesson to improve our energy security. We also have both onshore and offshore gas. For the last 12 years, no progress has taken place. It is time for Bangladesh to find a new strategy for energy for the long-run.

TDS: Is getting Russian oil refined through India an option for an emergency solution?

MHK: Russian crude oil is thick, and cannot be suitably processed in our refineries. We can look at the opportunity of importing Russian oil through India, if we can do that. India has been given 30-day relief by the US, and I am sure India will be importing a lot.

TDS: There have been reports in Middle East Monitor, though it hasn’t been substantiated by the government, that Iran is granting Bangladesh safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Will that grant relief?

MHK: If it happened, I would say it’s a gracious move on the part of Iran to give us the concession of safe passage. However, even if they have given us that facility, getting the vessels and insurance companies to cover that, will not be easy. Regardless, if we can get that, my position would be: let’s try it.

TDS: How would that impact the relationship with the US though?

MHK: Well, my sense is that if the US can give relief to India to import Russian oil, we can very well approach the United States and ask to bring oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz to Bangladesh.

TDS: Is now the time to defer LDC graduation?

MHK: I think the new Bangladesh government has already decided and applied for deferral to the United Nations. My understanding is that Bangladesh may get three years of deferral time, to graduate in 2029. Even then, we need to focus on the graduation process with the Iran war shaking us again. My personal observation is that previous processes were more of a slogan than a preparation.

LDC graduation will require massive internal reforms. We will lose our preferential access, and Bangladesh will have to renegotiate agreements with all our partners. That will be very difficult especially with the reciprocal tariff agreement that we have signed with the United States. We will have to sign similar agreements with India, China, the European Union which is already in talks with Bangladesh to sign GSP plus facilities. The moment we ask the EU to give us such facilities, we have to sign all the human rights records and so on. What this means is that we have to make ourselves more competitive on multiple fronts.

We have to reorganise our economic management, our governance structure, our skills management, among others. All of these elements need reforms, in order to be brought to a global, competitive standard. So, we need to take massive measures to prepare, and ensure that the transition will be less painful.

TDS: What should the people and government of Bangladesh focus on now?

MHK: The war should be a reminder that the world outside is very uncertain. If we want to weather through such uncertainty, consolidation of our homefront is very important. The July uprising has given indications of which way to go. We really need to focus on reforms and build a consensus-based, inclusive political structure so that Bangladesh can go beyond both the domestic transition — characterised by the rising aspirations of people — and the economic transition that is coming up, along with the geopolitical shifts that are occurring from the war in Iran. We have to think differently. We have to do things differently. Only then, we can face the challenges ahead with dignity as a nation.​

 

[Saif]

Iranian envoy says Bangladeshi tankers can pass Strait of Hormuz

Bangladesh has received reassurance from Iran regarding the safe passage of fuel shipments amid growing concerns about global oil supply disruptions.

www.newagebd.net

Iranian envoy says Bangladeshi tankers can pass Strait of Hormuz

United News of Bangladesh . Dhaka 15 March, 2026, 00:49

Bangladesh has received reassurance from Iran regarding the safe passage of fuel shipments amid growing concerns about global oil supply disruptions.

Iranian ambassador to Bangladesh Jalil Rahimi Jahanabadi on Friday said that Iran stood ready to ensure that Bangladeshi oil tankers could pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz, despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

I have seen that there is an energy crisis in your country. Due to the energy problem, prime minister Tarique Rahman and the energy minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood have requested the Iranian government to allow Bangladeshi oil tankers to pass through, said the ambassador.

‘I have spoken with Iranian government officials and they are ready. If you have vessels willing to transport fuel, we will allow them to pass safely so that the people of Bangladesh do not face difficulties,’ the ambassador said following an event in Dhaka.

Iran’s secretive new leader issued his first public statements on Thursday, resolving to keep fighting, promising more pain for Gulf Arab states and threatening to open ‘other fronts’ in a war that has already disrupted world energy supplies, the global economy and international travel, reports AP.

Early Friday, US president Donald Trump issued a new threat online to Iran, writing, ‘Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today’.

Trump tallied the damage inflicted on Iran and its leaders and called it a ‘great honour’ to be responsible for it.

The remarks by supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei came as Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that his country’s attacks were creating conditions for the Iranian population to topple the government.

‘It is in your hands,’ Netanyahu said at a news conference, addressing the Iranian people. ‘We are creating the optimal conditions for the fall of the regime.’

Iran will continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest oil shipping channel, according to a statement attributed to Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, reports the BBC.

His message was broadcast on Iranian state TV, but Khamenei did not appear in person. His message was instead read out by a newsreader.

Iran would ‘avenge the blood’ of Iranians killed in the war with the US and Israel, Khamenei said in the statement, which also warned neighbouring countries to stop hosting US bases.

He was named supreme leader on March 8 after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of the war.

Ambassador Jahanabadi defended his country’s position, and said, ‘We are not seeking a regional war, but we cannot remain indifferent while being attacked from American bases in neighbouring countries.’

The first week of war with Iran cost the United States $11.3 billion, according to the Pentagon, which provided the estimate to Congress in a briefing earlier this week, according to a person familiar with the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the private meeting.

The US military reported spending $5 billion on munitions alone in the war’s first weekend.

The war continued to escalate on its 13th day as oil prices spiralled up again to $100 per barrel, and stocks sank worldwide over fears that the conflict could drag on longer than hoped.

To relieve the surge in prices, the US treasury department announced that it was further easing sanctions on Russian oil by granting a license that authorises the delivery and sale of some Russian crude oil and petroleum products for the next month.

Trump signalled earlier this week that he would take more action to address the squeeze on oil flows. The move follows the administration’s decision to grant temporary permission for India to buy Russian oil.

The new exemption applies only to Russian oil already at sea. Last week, analysts estimated there were about 125 million barrels loaded on tankers. To put that in perspective, about 20 million barrels of oil per day usually pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency.​

 

[Saif]

The hidden cost of war for Bangladesh

Wars fought thousands of miles away often feel distant from Bangladesh. But in today's interconnected economy, conflict in one region can quickly affect daily life in another. Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow corridor through which about 30-40 per cent of Bangladesh's fuel and

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

From oil routes to rice fields
The hidden cost of war for Bangladesh
Ravi Nandi and Wais Kabir

Published :
Mar 16, 2026 00:15
Updated :
Mar 16, 2026 00:15

Wars fought thousands of miles away often feel distant from Bangladesh. But in today's interconnected economy, conflict in one region can quickly affect daily life in another. Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow corridor through which about 30-40 per cent of Bangladesh's fuel and LNG imports pass, show how closely food security is tied to global shipping routes. When that route becomes risky, the impact can reach Bangladesh's rice fields faster than diplomacy can react.

For Bangladesh, the impact is straightforward: when the Gulf becomes unstable, energy prices, freight charges and insurance costs rise. Fuel prices rise, and transport costs increase across the food supply chain. In an import-dependent economy like Bangladesh, the cumulative result is inflation at the market stall.

To address these challenges, the government must recognise that this is not merely an energy issue. It is a food security issue. And the most vulnerable point in that system is irrigation.

IRRIGATION-THE WEAK LINK: The most fragile point in Bangladesh's food system is not the port or warehouse; it is the irrigation pump. Bangladesh operates about 1.6 million irrigation pumps, nearly 80 per cent of them powered by diesel; much of this irrigation supports water-intensive boro cultivation. Dry-season boro rice, the backbone of national production, depends heavily on irrigation because rainfall is scarce.

Diesel is the most consumed fuel in the country, accounting for around 73 per cent of the country's total fuel consumption. When diesel prices rise sharply, the costs of irrigation, transport, and farm mechanisation services increase immediately. Farmers either pay more for water or reduce irrigation hours to manage expenses. For small farmers already operating on thin margins, this is not theoretical. Higher fuel prices mean delayed watering and lower yields. Some farmers may reduce production, leading to higher imports. The implications for the national food supply are serious. Boro rice production has been central to Bangladesh's progress toward food self-sufficiency. If irrigation becomes unreliable due to rising fuel prices or uncertain supplies, the consequences will be felt across both production and prices.

The government must therefore treat irrigation fuel as a strategic priority during this crisis.

Ensuring an uninterrupted diesel supply for agricultural regions during irrigation seasons should become an explicit policy objective. Strategic reserves and targeted distribution can help prevent supply disruptions from cascading into crop losses.

FERTILISER - THE SECOND SHOCKWAVE: Fertiliser markets are closely linked to global energy and shipping networks. When geopolitical tensions disrupt supply routes or raise freight costs, fertiliser prices can rise dramatically. Bangladesh imports large quantities of fertilisers, including urea, diammonium phosphate, triple superphosphate, and muriate of potash. Disruptions in shipping routes through the Gulf or surges in transport costs can quickly push up import prices. This not only increases the government's subsidy burden and farmers' input costs, but also has ripple effects across other sectors. Beyond rice cultivation, fertiliser price shocks also affect maize production, a key component of poultry and livestock feed. As Bangladesh's expanding poultry sector relies heavily on maize-based feed, rising feed costs soon drive up the prices of eggs and chicken, placing additional strain on household budgets.

What begins as a maritime security issue can quickly become a nutrition crisis.

WHY THE POOR SUFFER FIRST: Price shocks do not affect all households equally. Poor families suffer the most because food takes up the largest share of their household budget. Higher diesel prices raise costs throughout the supply chain from irrigation and harvesting to transport and distribution. If fertiliser prices rise simultaneously, farmers may reduce input use or take on more debt, both of which increase the risk of lower yields. At the consumer level, low-income households have little room to adapt. They cannot stockpile food or switch to premium suppliers. Instead, they reduce food consumption or substitute cheaper, less nutritious options.

This is how distant wars quietly translate into hunger at home.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT MUST DO NOW: The government must act quickly to reduce these risks. Four priorities stand out. These recommendations are:

First, protect irrigation continuity. Fuel supply planning must prioritise agricultural irrigation during critical cropping seasons. Strategic fuel reserves and targeted distribution mechanisms can help ensure that farmers have uninterrupted access to diesel.

Second, strengthen fertiliser procurement strategies. Bangladesh should diversify import sources and secure supply contracts early, before geopolitical shocks drive prices even higher. Timely procurement can prevent panic buying during market peaks.

Third, expand targeted consumer protection. Market interventions, food assistance programs, and cash transfers can help protect vulnerable households from sudden spikes in food prices without imposing unsustainable fiscal costs.

Fourth, integrate freight and insurance risks into macroeconomic planning. Rising shipping costs directly affect import bills for fuel, food and agricultural inputs. Economic policy must anticipate these shocks rather than react after prices surge.

BUILDING RESILIENCE FOR THE FUTURE: Emergency measures alone will not protect Bangladesh from future global disruptions. Structural reforms are equally important.

The most important long-term solution is reducing dependence on diesel irrigation. Solar and grid-powered irrigation can lower farmers' exposure to volatile fuel markets while supporting climate commitments. However, these programs must be designed carefully to avoid groundwater overuse and ensure equitable access for small farmers.

Second, improving input efficiency in agriculture can reduce vulnerability to fertiliser price shocks. Conservation, precision agriculture practices and improved nutrient management can lower fertiliser use while maintaining yields. Input use efficiency is lower in Bangladesh; it must be enhanced to reduce loss.

Third, strengthening mechanisation services and agricultural extension systems can help farmers maintain productivity even when labour or input costs rise.

Finally, digital early-warning systems and better agricultural advisory services can allow farmers to respond more effectively to changing conditions, reducing crop losses and improving decision-making.

Bangladesh cannot control conflicts in the Middle East, but it can prepare for their economic consequences. Energy shocks often turn into food shocks, hitting the poorest hardest. To protect food security, the government must act early through strategic fuel planning, reliable fertiliser supply, targeted social protection, and stronger agricultural resilience.


Dr Ravi Nandi, Policy and Food Systems Economist, CGIAR CIMMYT, Bangladesh. Dr Wais Kabir, former Executive Chairman, BARC.​

 

[Saif]

Iran war could wipe out up to 3% of Bangladesh GDP

A prolonged US-Israel war on Iran could reduce Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 3 percent over the next two years, according to a new policy analysis by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem).

www.thedailystar.net

Iran war could wipe out up to 3% of Bangladesh GDP

Sanem says worst‑case modelling shows risks from falling Gulf remittances, slowing exports and rising shipping costs

Md Asaduz Zaman

A prolonged US-Israel war on Iran could reduce Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 3 percent over the next two years, according to a new policy analysis by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem).

The study says that Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on imported energy, remittances from Gulf countries, and global trade networks leaves the economy exposed to geopolitical shocks in the Middle East.

“Real wages could come under pressure and export growth would likely slow,” the report said.

The study was conducted by using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model, a widely used analytical framework for assessing global trade and policy shocks.

Researchers modelled three scenarios to estimate the potential damage.

The first assumed a sharp rise in global energy prices, with crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices climbing around 40 percent and 50 percent, respectively, if the conflict disrupts production or transport routes.

Higher fuel costs would push up domestic electricity generation costs, manufacturing expenses and consumer prices. Under such a situation, Bangladesh’s GDP is likely to decline by 1.2 percent, according to the paper.

“This contraction mirrors how central energy is to production and transportation throughout the economy. High fuel prices set off a chain reaction across industries, pushing production costs higher,” it said.

The second scenario examined disruptions to international trade and shipping routes, estimating a 25 percent rise in freight costs due to higher fuel prices and increased insurance premiums for vessels in high-risk maritime zones.

In this scenario, there could also be a 5 percent drop in export demand to the European and American markets. These shocks would altogether cause a 1.4 percent GDP decline, said the study.

The paper said Bangladesh’s export sectors are very sensitive to transport costs and delivery reliability.

“When exports shrink, the related backward linkages, such as textiles, logistics, and supporting services, decline. The economy, therefore, experiences a slowdown that spreads gradually through multiple layers of the production network.”

The third scenario combined several shocks at once, including a 10 percent fall in remittance inflows from Gulf countries, reflecting possible economic disruptions in the nations where millions of Bangladeshi workers are employed.

The combined shock scenario produces the largest effect, including a roughly 3 percent decline in GDP, said the paper.

Prof Selim Raihan, executive director of Sanem and author of the study, said these pressures combined could trigger moderate to significant economic stress in the short to medium term.

“This result is not surprising,” he said. “The effects reinforce each other when multiple external pressures come at the same time. Higher fuel prices raise production costs. Trade disruptions weaken export demand. At the same time, declining remittance inflows lower household income and consumption.”

“These forces work together, impacting the supply and demand sides of the economy. This is because rising costs and a weakening market mean firms cut back production. Households struggle with lower purchasing power and tighten their belts. The interaction between these changes generates a deeper slowdown than any of the shocks would create on their own.”

The paper said Bangladesh’s exports may decline by about 2 percent in the case of an energy price shock. This is because industries’ higher production costs can make Bangladeshi goods a little less competitive in international markets.

“This decline gets even larger when introducing trade disruptions. In the shipping disruption scenario, exports would shrink by about 3.4 percent. Freight costs and the uncertainty of logistics are significant here.”

In the combined scenario, however, that pressure is multiplied. Exports drop by nearly 6 percent, a sign of the cumulative effect of rising costs, reduced demand, and shipping disruptions, it added.

The report said Bangladesh’s export-oriented garments sector stands out as one of the most vulnerable sectors in both of the simulations. Its output may decline as much as 4.5 percent.

But the transport and logistics sector would be the worst hit, by as much as 5 percent, energy-intensive manufacturing 4 percent, and agriculture 1.5 percent, according to the findings.

Prof Raihan said in the case of a prolonged war, the effect could be felt in around two years. “In fact, the impact can be larger if the situation gets worse,” he said.

The paper said Bangladesh’s development model has relied on export-led manufacturing and overseas employment, but that same integration exposes it to external shocks when geopolitical crises erupt elsewhere.

The study recommends diversifying energy sources, improving trade logistics infrastructure, expanding export markets and broadening strategies for overseas employment.​