[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy
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G Bangladesh Defense

Overcoming barriers to business

SYED FATTAHUL ALIM

Published :
May 02, 2026 23:24
Updated :
May 02, 2026 23:24

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Formulating investment-friendly policies, reducing cost of doing business, developing infrastructures and streamlining as well as modernising the government departments to ensure the necessary services to business enterprises have been the main focus of view exchanges at the meetings held at different forums over the past few days. In this connection, the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) in its pre-budget discussion emphasized structural reforms in tax systems, especially reduction of minimum tax on annual gross turnovers. The apex business body argued that under the current system, businesses have to pay such tax even when they sustain losses amid high inflation and high interest rates, shortages of foreign currency and rising input costs.

Actually, the apex trade body pleaded for phasing out tax on the businesses that are operating at a zero or negative taxable incomes and the newly-established businesses for a certain period of time. Businesses would naturally seek tax reduction to lower their cost of businesses and maximize profit. However, in the present case, the proposal seems existential since businesses in general have suffered in recent years due to multiple factors of both international and domestic origin. Those include, for instance, the Ukraine war that started in February 2022 and the recent wars on Iran started by Israel and the USA resulting in the closure and blockade of a major global energy route, the Strait of Hormuz. These international issues have disrupted global supply chains and left its deleterious impacts on businesses and investments globally and Bangladesh has been no exception to that. Add to those the domestic factors like the student-led July uprising of 2024 leading to the handover of power to the interim government. Together these issues have militated against the growth of business in this part of the world. Meanwhile, the rate of inflation began to rise in early 2022, which further escalated following the hiking up of fuel prices in August 2022 by the then-government and has since remained a persistent challenge for the economy with the rates (of inflation) hovering above 9 to 10 per cent throughout 2023, 2024 and early 2025. Even in early 2026, the rate of inflation has remained high. The tightening of monetary policy by pre-July 2024 autocracy and continued by the interim government through raising central bank's policy rate did not help. The new BNP government is evidently bearing the burden of the legacy it has inherited from the past. Naturally, the business community who has been taking the most hit all these years is seeking a breathing space from the incumbent government that enjoys a popular mandate.

As expected, among all other issues the business community is grappling with to run its operations, the prevailing tax regime and bank interest rates have proved to be the major stumbling blocks to its growth. So far as the tax system is concerned, it is still holding the old legacy of arbitrariness. What is required, on the contrary, is a taxation system that is sensitive to special needs of the taxpaying businesses or individuals. But how is the government going to address, for instance, the tax-related concerns of the business community when it (the government) has to maintain macroeconomic stability by enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, managing debt and optimizing public spending, particularly to finance social safety nets, health, education and maintaining as well as developing infrastructures? No doubt, as a major source of the government's revenue earnings, taxation plays a critical role. In that case, rather than being lazy and limiting the revenue department's collection within a given group of citizens and businesses, the best option is to expand the tax-base. But simply holding tax fairs is not going to address the problem. The revenue department has to be innovative in its approach to attract potential taxpayers still remaining beyond the tax-net. The stakeholders in this connection also pointed out the bottlenecks arising out of the person-based structure of revenue collection system. So, as suggested by business leaders as well as some executives of the international trade bodies, to address human-bias, the taxation system should be institutionalized through digitalization. As part of modernizing revenue regime, some development partners laid emphasis on digitalization of the customs procedures. Also, the bureaucracy was pointed out as a major bottleneck to foreign as well as domestic investment. While bureaucracy breeds corruption and kills time, unpredictability at the policy level is yet another big impediment to investments in the economy. Such unpredictability or uncertainties can largely be attributed to changes of governments either through constitutional or by unconstitutional means. Notably, Bangladesh has experienced either form of change in government over time. Small wonder foreign governments and investors often stress continuity of policy as the most-sought-after condition for overseas investments. On this score, business leaders and policymakers at a dialogue on business climate underscored among other issues the importance of regulatory predictability that would help set priorities in the upcoming budget for the next fiscal. Evidently, such predictability would go a long way in easing doing business and bolstering investor confidence. Evidently, that would strengthen investment climate and support sustainable economic growth.

In fact, regulatory complexity, policy unpredictability and the barriers to investment have remained the major obstacles to businesses. Those are, as though, constraints no government ever denied, but could do little to do away with. Nevertheless, the businesses are pinning their hopes on the incumbent government to address such intractable problems stymieing their progress since long. Reassuringly, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman in his response to an MP's query in parliament on Wednesday (April 29) regarding his government's plans to improve the country's investment climate and promote job creation, he put forward a 180-day plan aiming to strengthen the foundation for investment growth through short-term administrative, institutional and infrastructural measures to create a business-friendly environment in the country. The plan, the prime minister further informed, was jointly prepared by the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA), Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (BEZA), Public Private Partnership (PPP) Authority and Maheshkhali Integrated Development Authority (MIDA). Clearly, this is a highly-focused initiative from the highest policy level of the present government. Businesses might take heart from the prime minister's short-term plan to improve investment climate in the country.​
 

Revenue, defaults and the coming storm

FE

Published :
May 02, 2026 23:25
Updated :
May 02, 2026 23:25

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For all the electoral enthusiasm of February, change of government in Bangladesh has not brought with it any substantial change in the economic condition. The early optimism of a new dispensation has already worn thin. As it turns out, the country is caught between the failures that long predate the new government and fresh external pressures that have arrived with little warning. Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury did not pretend otherwise when he recently warned parliament of two difficult years ahead, and the figures he cited left little room for misreading the situation. The country's tax-to-GDP ratio has now fallen below 7 per cent, the lowest in South Asia, while the poverty rate stands at 29.93 per cent. Default loans in the banking sector have ballooned to over 30 per cent of total lending, a threshold at which, as the minister himself acknowledged, an economy nearly grinds to a halt. The April 2026 Economic Update from the General Economics Division only reinforces this distress signal noting that headline inflation eased only marginally to 8.71 per cent and non-food inflation remained stubbornly high at 9.09 per cent. In the meantime, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) collected only Tk 335 billion against a revised target of Tk 532 billion in March, demonstrating that the state's capacity to fund its own obligations remains deeply in question.

Obviously, the reason this situation is so resistant to speedy repair is that it is the result of purposeful choices made over the course of a decade and a half. The banking sector, for instance, could not have gotten to its 30 per cent non-performing loans as a result of random chance. This occurred due to the fact that political patronage was prioritised over regulatory supervision, and connected borrowers were permitted to extract capital with minimal repercussions. Nevertheless, the new government can only go so far by referencing that legacy. At some point, and that point is arriving faster than the government may be comfortable with, the ruling BNP would be judged not by what it was handed but by what it does with it. The immediate-past interim administration, for all its accountability efforts, failed to reverse this economic downturn, leaving the new government with the same liabilities and no clear way out. This is perhaps most evident in the state of revenue collection where the disparity between fiscal need and fiscal capacity is still enormous. How much budgetary manoeuvre can the government be reasonably expected to do to support its social security or public investment when its tax department could hardly meet 60 per cent of its own revised monthly targets?

Throughout this period, remittances have been a vital lifeline, boosting the external account and helping to preserve reserves at generally comfortable levels despite monthly swings. The cushion so far has kept greater balance of payments concerns at bay. Nevertheless, it will not be able to permanently fix the fundamental issues with revenue mobilisation, subdued investment and energy-driven cost pressures that make prices go up and hurt competition. More concerning is the approaching graduation from LDC status in November 2026, which will remove tariff preferences covering roughly 70 per cent of global exports and add further strain to an already unstable economic condition.

The two difficult years the finance minister has spoken of will undoubtedly test the government's resolve. But difficulty is not the same as futility, and those two years can still be made purposeful ones provided the government has the institutional will and foresight to address what's coming in its its way.​

The theft and massive looting in the banking sector has to be stopped.

Single biggest factor in our not achieving economic goals.

These thieves and looters have to be taken out (I mean taken out by whomever possible) to stop the bleeding. This is a must.

Looters have become too bold and fearless and they are enabled by Indian help.
 

Export earnings rebound in April after eight-month slump

bdnews24.com

Published :
May 03, 2026 20:03
Updated :
May 03, 2026 20:03

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Bangladesh's export earnings have rebounded in April, rising almost 33 per cent year-on-year after declining for eight straight months.

The country earned more than $4 billion from merchandise exports in April, driven mainly by strong growth in the ready-made garment sector.

Data released by the Export Promotion Bureau on Sunday showed Bangladesh earned $4.01 billion from goods exports in April, the 10th month of fiscal year 2025-26.

That was up 32.91 per cent from $3.01 billion in April last year and 15.20 per cent higher than March's $3.48 billion.

Garments Lead Recovery

The ready-made garment sector, Bangladesh's largest export earner, generated $3.14 billion in April, up 31.21 per cent from $2.39 billion a year earlier.

Garments accounted for 78.32 per cent of total export earnings during the month.

Knitwear exports rose 30.02 per cent to $1.70 billion, while woven garment exports increased 32.65 per cent to $1.42 billion.

Despite April's strong performance, cumulative exports for the first 10 months of the fiscal year remained in negative territory.

From July to April, Bangladesh exported goods worth $39.39 billion, down 2.02 per cent from $40.21 billion in the same period a year earlier.

A Volatile Fiscal Year

The fiscal year began strongly, with exports surging 24.90 per cent to $4.77 billion in July.

But momentum quickly faded.

Exports declined 2.93 per cent in August, 5.66 per cent in September, 7.43 per cent in October, 5.54 per cent in November, 14.25 per cent in December, 0.50 per cent in January, 12.03 per cent in February and 18.07 per cent in March.

March marked the steepest monthly fall, with exports dropping to $3.48 billion.

Trump Tariffs and Market Uncertainty

Exporters had initially expected Bangladesh to benefit after the United States reduced reciprocal tariffs on Bangladeshi goods from 35 per cent to 20 per cent on Jul 31, just before the measures took effect on Aug 7.

Higher tariffs imposed on Chinese and Indian goods had also raised hopes of additional orders shifting to Bangladesh.

However, exports continued to weaken.

Fresh uncertainty emerged after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's global tariff measures on Feb 20.

A new 10 per cent tariff was imposed the next day, later raised to 15 per cent.​
 

NBR on hunt to recoup revenue shortfall

Weak ADP spending weighs down govt revenue

Doulot Akter Mala

Published :
May 03, 2026 23:46
Updated :
May 03, 2026 23:46

Government's revenue authority launches an extensive drive to recoup domestic revenue shortfall by tapping potential sectors as limited scope left for a last-quarter boost in taxing development-project spending.

Field-level officials say implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) is traditionally a major source of domestic revenue, contributing significantly -- particularly in the final quarter of a fiscal year -- with taxes deducted at source from government payments.

However, fiscal constraints and ongoing global uncertainties have forced the government to scale down development spending, weakening this key revenue stream.

Government expenditure dropped significantly, to approximately Tk 122.80 billion in March of FY26, down from around Tk 153.41 billion in the same month of the fiscal year 2024-25. The monthly utilisation rate also declined from 6.78 per cent to 5.88 per cent.

A recent report by the General Economics Division (GED) indicates that the usual end-of-quarter spending surge would be subdued this year due to below-average ADP implementation.

To offset the expected revenue gap, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has formed a taskforce to intensify collection efforts during April-June, the final quarter of the fiscal year.

The taskforce is conducting daily monitoring of revenue performance across field offices.

The must-dos includes reviewing income-tax and VAT returns, recovering arrears, and expediting dispute resolution from field offices to the headquarters under close supervision.

Three senior officials from the income tax, customs, and VAT wings are leading the taskforce crusade for revenue netting.
A taskforce member told The Financial Express that a digital dashboard has been introduced to closely monitor revenue-collection activities.

"On average, 50 to 60 per cent of annual revenue comes from development-project implementation. This year, however, collection from this source is expected to be weak, potentially leading to a significant shortfall," says the official.

Field-level data show challenges mounting as a major part of revenue comes from government bills -- typically cleared in the final quarter -- for development-project works.

Roads and Highways Department and Civil Aviation sector alone account for around Tk 3.0 billion in outstanding payments in a value-added tax (VAT) zone, officials say.

Meanwhile, recent tax waivers in sectors such as LPG -- previously a major revenue contributor -- have further narrowed the revenue base.

Officials also note that generating additional revenue from sectors like restaurants remains difficult. For instance, collecting an additional Tk 500 million in VAT would require an estimated Tk 10 billion in sales turnover, which appears unrealistic under current economic conditions. Macroeconomic pressures are compounding the challenge.

While inflation remains elevated, wage growth has been inconsistent, eroding consumers' purchasing power and reducing their capacity to pay taxes.

Currently, around 0.8 million businesses are registered under the VAT system, but many are struggling to sustain operations amid declining demand.​
 

Remittance inflow crosses $3.0 billion mark in April

BSS

Published :
May 03, 2026 18:52
Updated :
May 03, 2026 18:52

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The country’s remittance inflow has crossed the US$3.0 billion milestone in April, reflecting sustained strong inflows from expatriate Bangladeshis, according to data released by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) on Sunday.

During this period, remittance receipts reached $3,127 million, marking a 13.6 per cent increase year-on-year compared to $2,752 million in the same period last year.

On a cumulative basis, expatriate Bangladeshis sent $29,332 million in remittances from July to April of the current fiscal year, significantly higher than $24,537 million recorded in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

The continued rise in remittance inflows is playing a vital role in supporting external sector stability, strengthening foreign exchange reserves, and contributing to overall macroeconomic resilience.​
 

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