[🇺🇦] Monitoring Russian and Ukraine War.

[Saif]

Ukrainian drones target Russian military airfield, oil refinery

Ukrainian drones targeted a military airfield, an oil refinery and substation in southern Russia, a defence source in Kyiv said yesterday, after Moscow reported an overnight aerial barrage.

www.thedailystar.net

Ukrainian drones target Russian military airfield, oil refinery

Rescuers carry the body of a person found under debris at the site where an apartment building was hit by a Russian missile strike in Kyiv, Ukraine yesterday. Targeting hospitals in Ukraine is a "war crime," a senior UN official told an emergency meeting of the Security Council yesterday, called in the wake of deadly strikes that Kyiv blamed on Russia. Photo: REUTERS

Ukrainian drones targeted a military airfield, an oil refinery and substation in southern Russia, a defence source in Kyiv said yesterday, after Moscow reported an overnight aerial barrage.

Kyiv has stepped up cross border aerial attacks on Russia in recent months, attempting to damage energy infrastructure and the Kremlin's war chest by hurting oil revenues.

Russia has launched drone and missiles attacks that have crippled Ukrainian power plants and halved the country's generation capacity.

In an operation coordinated by Security Services of Ukraine and the country's military intelligence, drone spurred explosions at the Akhtyubinsk military airfield in Russia's Astrakhan region.

It also said there had been blasts at an electrical substation in the Rostov region and an oil depot in the southern Volgograd region.

The source added that Ukrainian forces would pursue more strikes on "Russian military facilities working for the war against Ukraine."

There was no response in Moscow to the specific claims.

The Russian defence ministry however had earlier said that its air defence systems had destroyed 38 Ukrainian drones in regions near the border between the two countries, including Rostov and Astrakhan.

Rostov's governor Vasily Golubev in comments to state-run agency TASS acknowledged an electric substation had been damaged in a drone attack, saying repairs would take three days.

And Astrakhan's governor Igor Babushkin said Ukraine had launched a "massive attempt to attack targets with drones" in the north of the region, adding that the attack had been "successfully repelled".

Both sides have used drones, including larger self-detonating craft with ranges stretching hundreds of kilometres extensively throughout the conflict, which began in February 2022.​

 

[Saif]

Russia under fire at UN over Ukraine strikes

Russia came under fire at the UN Security Council on Tuesday for conducting ‘systemic attacks’ on Ukraine’s medical facilities after a wave of deadly strikes across the country...

www.newagebd.net

Russia under fire at UN over Ukraine strikes
Agence France-Presse . United Nations 09 July, 2024, 23:36

Russia came under fire at the UN Security Council on Tuesday for conducting 'systemic attacks' on Ukraine's medical facilities after a wave of deadly strikes across the country.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said 38 people across Ukraine were killed—including four children—and 190 wounded in the wave of nearly 40 missiles that targeted several towns and cities on Monday, damaging medical facilities.

'Intentionally directing attacks against a protected hospital is a war crime and perpetrators must be held to account,' Joyce Msuya, acting under-secretary for humanitarian affairs, told the emergency meeting.

'These incidents are part of a deeply concerning pattern of systemic attacks harming healthcare and other civilian infrastructure across Ukraine,' Msuya added.

Kyiv said a children's hospital was struck by a Russian cruise missile with components produced in NATO member countries, and announced a day of mourning in the capital.

'First Responders attending the scene immediately after the attack found children receiving treatment for cancer in hospital beds, set up in parks and on the street, where medical workers had quickly established triage areas,' Msuya said.

Ukrainian ally France's envoy Nicolas de Riviere said 'Russia has deliberately targeted residential neighborhoods and healthcare infrastructure.'

'France condemns these flagrant violations of international law, which are yet another entry and note list of war crimes for which Russia will be held accountable,' he said.

China, which has long called for a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine, said that both sides should 'show political will, meet each other halfway and start peace talks at an early date.'

'China will continue to actively promote peace talks,' said Beijing's envoy Fu Cong.

Russia previously claimed the extensive missile damage in Kyiv was caused by Ukrainian air defense systems.

'We continue to insist that we do not strike civilian targets,' spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a daily briefing Tuesday.

However, the United Nations said there was a 'high likelihood' that the children's hospital in Kyiv suffered 'a direct hit' from a missile 'launched by the Russian Federation.'

Russia currently holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council and its envoy to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, indicated earlier this month he will take a firm line with Ukraine and its Western allies.

As a permanent member of the UN's top security body, Moscow wields a veto which it has used on several occasions to thwart efforts to censure its war in Ukraine.

It initially appeared that Russia would seek to block Ukraine from participating in Tuesday's meeting after Nebenzya said Kyiv had not correctly formatted its letter requesting to participate.

Ukraine could participate 'only on condition it was requested by the United States... we regret that Ukraine cannot act independently... (and) it has to be led by its sponsor,' said Nebenzya.

'Mr President, we are appalled by the strikes on Ukraine by the country that you are representing,' Slovenia's representative to the UN Samuel Zbogar said to Nebenzya, calling the strikes 'brutal' and 'another low.'

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the deadly Russian strikes in Ukraine as 'particularly shocking,' his spokesman Stephane Dujarric said on Monday.

UN rights chief Volker Turk echoed Guterres, calling the attacks 'abominable,' and saying that 'the strikes severely damaged the intensive care, surgical and oncology wards of Okhmatdyt, which is Ukraine's largest children's referral hospital.'

Zelensky has been urging allies to bolster Ukrainian air defense systems and was expected to renew those calls as a NATO summit kicked off later Tuesday in Washington.​

 

[Deleted due to Error (Muji Iqbal)]

Personally I want Russia to win in Ukraine. Because there needs to be alternatives to USA.

 

[Saif]

Nato begins sending F-16 jets to Ukraine

Nato allies have begun the promised transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to bolster defenses against Russia, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday.

www.thedailystar.net

Nato begins sending F-16 jets to Ukraine
Says US top diplomat

Nato allies have begun the promised transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to bolster defenses against Russia, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday.

"As we speak, the transfer of F-16 jets is underway, coming form Denmark, coming from the Netherlands," Blinken said at a Nato 75th anniversary summit in Washington.

Meanwhile, Nato allies have reached agreement on the summit declaration that includes a pledge by the alliance to continue to support Ukraine "on its irreversible path to full Euro-atlantic integration, including Nato membership", a source told Reuters yesterday.

The declaration goes on to reaffirm that Nato will "be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met", according to the source in the alliance.

On the eve of the summit, Russia fired a barrage of missiles on Ukraine, killing dozens.​

 

[Saif]

Erdogan warns against NATO-Russia conflict

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Thursday that any possibility of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO was ‘worrying’, the official Anadolu news agency...

www.newagebd.net

Erdogan warns against NATO-Russia conflict
Agence France-Presse . Istanbul 11 July, 2024, 22:28

Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Thursday that any possibility of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO was 'worrying', the official Anadolu news agency reported.

Erdogan's comments came as NATO leaders huddled in Washington and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was planning 'response measures' to contain the 'very serious threat' from the alliance.

'The possibility of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia is undoubtedly worrying,' said Erdogan, who is in Washington for the NATO summit. 'Any steps that could lead to this outcome should be consciously avoided.'

Erdogan spoke a day after NATO allies announced they had started transferring F-16 jets to Ukraine and stepped up promises to Kyiv on eventual membership of the alliance.

Peskov, in comments published by Russian news agencies, said the Western military alliance was now 'fully involved in the conflict over Ukraine'.

NATO member Turkey has sought to balance ties between its two Black Sea neighbours Russia and Ukraine since Moscow's full-scale invasion in 2022.

Ankara has sent drones to Ukraine but shied away from Western-led sanctions on Moscow.

On Thursday, Erdogan also played down the influence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a regional bloc that Moscow and Beijing have promoted as a counterweight to US domination.

'We do not think that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is an alternative to NATO,' Erdogan said.

Turkey has been an SCO dialogue partner since 2012 and Erdogan, who attended the July summit, has suggested in the past he wanted full membership.

Namik Tan, a lawmaker for the opposition CHP party who served as Turkey's ambassador to Washington, called out the government for its friendly relations with Russia.

'We were the only NATO country that attended the 24th SCO Summit last week,' he wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

'Isn't it a contradiction?'

Before flying to Washington on Tuesday, Erdogan called for more NATO involvement in the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Erdogan has already voiced concerns over what he said were Israeli plans to attack Lebanon and on Thursday renewed his warnings about the war spreading.

'Israel's threats and attempts to spread the conflict must come to an end,' he said.

'Otherwise, our region will face the risk of deeper conflicts and even a war.'​

 

[Saif]

Doomed to fail: Unaccountability in Ukraine’s plight

This ever-increasing Ukrainian death toll is painting a grimmer picture of the country as its military is being bled to white by Russia.

www.thedailystar.net

Doomed to fail: Unaccountability in Ukraine's plight

It is not only Russia that Zelensky is fighting a war against; it is also the Ukrainian press—as confirmed by the US Department of State. Photo: REUTERS

Just as the Soviet Union fell, the United States proudly acknowledged Francis Fukuyama's famous claim that both Nazism and communism had been defeated, and adopted the grand strategy of the liberal international order. Yet, in a paradoxical twist, the US is now funding the Azov Brigade in Ukraine, a neo-Nazi militia founded and armed by the Ukrainian ministry in 2014 which the White House itself had banned in 2018. This complex and contradictory nature of US foreign policy reveals a crack in the edifice of supporting a democratic, benign Ukraine against an autocratic, aggressive Russia.

As Republican Senator Lindsey Graham once said, Ukrainians "will fight to the last person." This deeply troubling declaration summarises two primary sentiments that are prevalent among Western elites. First, as political scientist John Mueller concluded, Americans are highly sensitive to the loss of American lives, but there is a marked indifference to the casualties suffered by foreigners. Second, as some analysts opine, the US objective in this war isn't Ukrainian prosperity, but something else.

Examining the US posture on Ukraine reveals a broader strategy where its primary objective is to weaken Putin's regime militarily, politically, and socially, rather than prioritising the well-being and sovereignty of Ukraine. This tactic is exemplified in Joe Biden's remarks about how Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power," Lindsey Graham's tweet that "the only way" to end this war is a Russian insurgency and regime change, Canadian deputy prime minister's parliament speech advocating the "entire vanquishing" of Putin, and the similarly aligned worldviews of the governments of UK and Sweden.

While this geopolitical objective of the "collective West" takes precedence, the true cost of the war is borne by Ukrainian citizens who continue to suffer immense casualties, displacement, and incalculable losses. A report by The New York Times referred to at a US congressional hearing indicates that Ukrainians have suffered more deaths than Russians. This ever-increasing Ukrainian death toll is painting a grimmer picture of the country as its military is being bled to white by Russia.

Apart from relentless Russian bombardment, Ukraine's vulnerabilities are appearing stronger as videos of forced conscription of young Ukrainians are circulating on social media. Its average military age is now 43, and the balance of power decisively favours the Russians. There are certainly no metrics in this war that ensures a Ukrainian victory, since the regime is facing collapsing manpower, airpower, and artillery stockpile. No amount of Western aid can rectify this imbalance, since the US itself does not have the industrial capacity to produce adequate artillery and munitions for Ukraine. Russian defence production outnumbers that of the US and Europe combined by three to sevenfold, as reported by NATO intelligence and Estonian intelligence, respectively.

It is not only Russia that Zelensky is fighting a war against; it is also the Ukrainian press—as confirmed by the US Department of State. However, international coverage of Ukrainian domestic politics remains critical of the current leadership. Zelensky's decisions to cancel elections, fire unit heads of different ministries, and the growing discontent among Ukrainian public, vividly portray a nation in internal turmoil—all of which have "shaken the confidence" of the West in his regime. Both parties "have hit their lowest ebb," according to Ukrainian officials. Biden's decision not to attend Ukraine's peace summit in Switzerland has also made Zelensky "very irritated," fueling speculations that the US views Ukraine as a lost cause.

Moreover, unrest is not confined to Ukraine alone. Fractions within the European Union are experiencing uproar as well. The defeat of leftist and centrist parties in EU polls reflect that the public opinion is aligned with those political parties that oppose Ukrainian complicity. Amid that, talks of forced conscription are circulating among the German political class. Even the former defence minister of the UK compared the inadequate support to Ukraine with a failed European leadership. So, in an effort to increase Europe's support for Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz recommended Ukraine use French and German missiles to attack the Russian homeland just as Biden approved using US missiles to hit Russian territories.

These developments have influenced Russia to implement a series of diplomatic initiatives. Its latest bilateral partnership with North Korea aims to provide mutual assistance in the face of an attack. Russia's Eurasian Security Framework aims to align with other nations to counter NATO, and its Vietnam partnership further solidifies this strategy. Furthermore, Moscow has offered yet another peace deal just a day before Ukraine's peace summit, aiming to establish Russia's eagerness to end the conflict sooner. Unsurprisingly, the US rejected the deal almost immediately. Putin foresaw this as he mentioned that the essence of this proposal is to end the conflict, not freeze it, "as the West wants".

Meanwhile, Washington has offered everything to Ukraine but a NATO membership. So far, Zelensky has received a 10-year security guarantee, $60 billion in aid, a $50 billion loan, and foolhardy guidance. It is no surprise that he lambasted NATO several times for not holding up its promises. Since the US understands that NATO membership for Ukraine means crossing the "Russian red line," something which the Head of NATO himself acknowledged, it is prolonging this losing war simply to put up a fight against Putin's regime. But in reality, such action is allowing Russia to turn Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump-state.

At this crucial stage, one might think it is time for the West to explore potential exit strategies or negotiate a settlement that minimises losses. But as can be seen with the 10-year security guarantee Washington has provided, this is not likely to occur anytime soon.

"There is no faith in Kyiv," laments Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister. After what happened with the peace talks, upholding trust has become difficult for Russia. When the 2014 Minsk Accords progressed towards mutual agreement, its key architects—German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President François Hollande, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko—walked out from the negotiation and later explicitly admitted that they were deceiving Vladimir Putin to buy Ukrainians time. What's ironic is Angela Merkel herself opposed NATO enlargement to Ukraine in 2008 and said that this move would be interpreted as a "declaration of war" by Russia.

Fast forward to post-invasion, Zelensky declared in March 2022 that Ukraine will not join NATO and proceeded to cut a deal at the Istanbul Communiqué in April 2022. However, Washington and London influenced Kyiv to withdraw, as confirmed by then Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who was part of the negotiations himself. This concludes that Russia has already been betrayed twice with these negotiations, which demands Putin become more stringent in future peace deals.

In the present landscape, the future looks dismal for Ukraine. Last summer's much awaited counteroffensive, the record-high sanctions, and hundreds of billions in loans and aid—all have failed miserably. With Russia standing stronger than ever, Ukraine will have no relief as the war will be prolonged. It will lose more territory and most importantly, more lives. The West, meanwhile, will certainly escape accountability, just as it was able to after previous NATO quagmires in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, and elsewhere.

Sirazum Monir Osmani is an analyst at a start-up.​

 

[Bilal9]

Interesting US-bias article by Forbes, they claim North Korea is supplying ammunition for obsolete Russian heavy howitzers (M-46).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russia's 'New' Artillery Piece Is A 70-Year-Old Behemoth Firing North Korean Shells.

To make good for losses in Ukraine, the Kremlin is pulling hundreds of old M-46 howitzers out of long-term storage.
David Axe
Forbes Staff
David Axe writes about ships, planes, tanks, drones and missiles.



Jul 17, 2024,11:18am EDT

A Soviet M-46 in 1964.

THOMAS TAYLOR HAMMOND PHOTO

Russian ground forces went to war in Ukraine in February 2022 with around 5,000 artillery pieces and rocket launchers. Twenty-eight months later, they've lost no fewer than 1,400 of the guns and launchers to Ukrainian action.


But combat losses aren't the only drag on Russia's artillery corps. More than two years of hard fighting have worn out the barrels on many howitzers—and also depleted Russia's pre-war ammunition stocks.

Increasingly desperate for heavy firepower and struggling to manufacture new artillery and shells, the Kremlin has opened up storage yards from the early Cold War and guns that were obsolete decades ago. And to arm them, the Russia has turned to a new ally: North Korea.

The 1950s-vintage M-46 howitzer is indicative of this new dynamic. The 8.5-ton, eight-person gun fires a 130-millimeter shell as far as 17 miles at a rate of five shells a minute. It's a powerful weapon—but heavy, hard to transport and manpower-intensive. Which is why, in the 1970s, the Soviet army replaced the M-46s with more efficient 152-millimeter howitzers.

Steep losses of those newer guns—and the depletion of Russia's pre-war stocks of artillery barrels and shells—drove the Kremlin back in time. A year or so into the wider war in Ukraine, the M-46s' drawbacks were no longer disqualifying. At that point, the alternative to old artillery was no artillery.

As of 2022 there were 665 M-46s in reserve in Russia, according to @highmarsed, an analyst who scrutinizes satellite imagery of Russian storage yards. By February 2024, around 65 had been removed. And now the pace of the reactivation is increasing.

A video that appeared on social media early this month depicts M-46s on a train apparently bound for the front line. "They have probably taken about half of the stored 130-millimter M-46 from storage," @highmarsed concluded last week.

That's 330 or so powerful—but old and heavy—replacement howitzers for the firepower-starved Russian force in Ukraine. Russian factories no longer produce 130-millimeter rounds, but North Korean factories do—so it should come as no surprise that videos have appeared online depicting Russian M-46s firing North Korean shells.

The howitzer ammo is the fruit of Moscow's closer military ties to Pyongyang—ties that have alarmed Kyiv and Seoul and prompted the latter to boost its financial support for the former.

With its powerful shell and decent range, the M-46 is particularly useful as a "counterbattery" weapon—that is, a howitzer for destroying other howitzers. That the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency's conclusion when it scrutinized North and South Korean artillery holdings in 2009. The CIA called the M-46 the "most effective counterbattery weapon in Korea."

But the Russians may struggle to transport and support the big guns along the 700-mile front line in Ukraine. The Russian military has lost so many vehicles in Ukraine—not just tanks and armored personnel carriers but also trucks and artillery tractors—that it's begun equipping front-line regiments and brigades with civilian-style all-terrain vehicles and dirt bikes.

It should go without saying that a 1.5-ton ATV can't tow an 8.5-ton M-46.

The other problem for the Russian gunners who are about to receive 70-year-old M-46s is that they're going to depend on foreign largess for their ammunition. North Korea and Iran are the only major manufacturers of 130-millimeter shells.

To keep its new old howitzers in action, Moscow will have to maintain good relations with Pyongyang and Tehran.

Follow me on Twitter. Check out my website or some of my other work here. Send me a secure tip.

Sources:

1. @highmarsed:
2. Oryx: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
3. Central Intelligence Agency: https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP84S00553R000100070002-0.pdf

 

[Saif]

Russia deploys cheap drones to locate Ukraine's air defences

Russia has begun including new, cheaply-made drones in its long-range attacks on Ukraine, to try to identify air defences, film any damage and act as decoys, a Ukrainian military spy official said. The two new types of drone, which Russia has used in five drone attacks in the last two to three wee

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Russia deploys cheap drones to locate Ukraine's air defences
REUTERS
Published :
Jul 26, 2024 19:13
Updated :
Jul 26, 2024 19:13

Paths of bullets are seen during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kherson, Ukraine July 26, 2024. Photo : Reuters/Stringer/Files

Russia has begun including new, cheaply-made drones in its long-range attacks on Ukraine, to try to identify air defences, film any damage and act as decoys, a Ukrainian military spy official said.

The two new types of drone, which Russia has used in five drone attacks in the last two to three weeks including an overnight strike on Thursday, are produced from materials like foam plastic and plywood, the official told Reuters.

One type carries a camera and a Ukrainian mobile phone SIM card to send images back to the Russian military.

"They identify where our mobile groups are positioned, where the machine guns are that can destroy them. They're trying ... to get a picture of where all our air defences are located," said Andriy Cherniak, a military spy agency spokesperson.

The previously unreported details from Cherniak are further evidence of Russia seeking to adapt its tactics and try new technology to gain an edge during its daily missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones, which fly to their target and detonate on impact, have become a staple of Russian aerial attacks since they began being used in the first year of Russia's full-scale invasion launched in February 2022.

Ukraine, which has been appealing to the West to provide more air defences to repel increased Russian airstrikes on its power facilities since March, tries hard to conceal the locations of its air defence systems.

The new Russian drones with cameras do not carry explosives but closely resemble regular Shahed drones and fly with groups of them, Cherniak said.

The second new type of drone contains no explosive charge or only a small one and is being used as a decoy, Cherniak added.

Because it is virtually indistinguishable from a regular attack drone from the ground, it still needs to be shot down, revealing where Ukraine's air defence systems are located.

He said the new drones probably cost as little as $10,000 each despite their long range, making them far cheaper to produce than air defence missiles.

The drones can also fly at an altitude of 1,000 m (3,000 ft), putting them out of range of machine guns and automatic rifles, he said.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has served as a testing ground for drone warfare technology, with both sides using attack and reconnaissance drones on the battlefield extensively. Kyiv has poured energy into domestic drone production to narrow the gap between its strike capabilities and Moscow's, staging long-range drone attacks on Russian targets including oil refineries.

Russia says its long-range aerial attacks are used to degrade Ukraine militarily. Ukraine says Russia's attacks have hit civilian buildings and caused serious damage to civilian energy facilities and loss of civilian life.

Russian troops occupy around 18% of Ukrainian territory and have been making incremental gains in the east in recent months, putting Kyiv on the back foot along a 1,000-km (600-mile) front line.​