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[🇸🇾] Rebels Oust Assad

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[🇸🇾] Rebels Oust Assad
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Short Summary: Monitoring post Assad situation in Syria

A new Syria in a crises-enveloped world
Syed Badrul Ahsan
Published :
Dec 11, 2024 21:50
Updated :
Dec 11, 2024 21:50

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A man holds a revolutionary flag Tuesday as others celebrate during the third day of the takeover of Damascus, Syria, by insurgents Photo : Agency

The speedy fall of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria brings about a dramatic change in the politics of the Middle East. In the first place, it changes the dynamics in Syria, given that the 54-year family domination of the country, first by Hafez Assad and then by his son, has come to an end. In the second, the success achieved by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the rebel force which is now in control in Damascus, leads to the next question, which is whether Syria now has a democratic opening or there is the dire probability of the country sliding to Islamist rule.

One cannot ignore the fact that in countries such as the United States, the HTS leader Abu Mohamed al Jawlani remains on a list of terrorists. To what extent or whether that name can be removed from the list is a big question, the answer to which depends on the next few days and on what the rebels mean to do with their new found power. To suggest that the HTS has full control over the country would be wrong owing to the fact that over the last more than a decade Syria has been sliced into pockets of domination by various groups, all of which were dedicated to the overthrow of the Assad dispensation.

The dramatic change in Syria raises a good number of other questions, all of which have a bearing on geopolitics, especially on the state of the region from here on. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been cheered by the change, gloating that his country has reshaped the Middle East. Whether the military offensive by Israel in Gaza against Hamas and in Lebanon against Hezbollah has been a fresh and positive beginning for the Middle East is a question for scholars and historians to dwell on. The organised murder of 44,000-plus Palestinians and the scores of Hamas and Hezbollah senior figures killed in Israeli missile strikes are certainly no marker to any positive change.

But, yes, Israel's relentless military assaults on Hamas and Hezbollah have left the two forces hugely diminished in their power to undertake any fresh armed assault against Tel Aviv. The manner in which Israel pounded away at Hezbollah positions in Lebanon was admittedly instrumental in decimating the group, which for years has been a dominant player in Arab radicalism in the region. With Hezbollah in a battered state, the Assad regime had little chance of survival. More to the point, a weakened Hezbollah is a reflection of the loss of regional influence which now stares Iran in the face. Neither Hezbollah nor the clerics in Tehran had anticipated such a situation arising in the days when they backed Bashar Assad in his campaigns against his enemies.

The victory of the HTS leaves Iran with influence greatly shredded in the current situation. Add to that the loss of face for Russia, where President Vladimir Putin has been a strong pillar of support for Assad in the latter's fearsome military campaigns against the forces trying to remove him from power. Yet in the past couple of years, Moscow's focus on its war against Ukraine inevitably led to a steady erosion of military supplies to the Damascus regime, leaving Assad rather high and dry. The definitive conclusion today is that it is not merely Bashar Assad who has lost power; it is Iran and Russia which suddenly find themselves out of Syria, a loss of influence which may never be recovered, if at all, anytime soon.

The swiftness with which the HTS rebels overran Syrian cities is testimony to the determination with which the group shaped strategy to push the long-entrenched regime out of power in Damascus. The jubilation with which the rebels were welcomed in Damascus and the hero's treatment accorded to Jawlani when he arrived at Damascus' leading mosque were clearly a release of emotions long suppressed by Syrians. That thousands of Syrians went searching for their relatives long imprisoned by the regime in public and secret prisons threw up the image of the brutality which defined the working of the Assad regime. It may well be that many of those hidden away by the regime will never be found.

And that is a tragedy which is generally the aftermath of the fall of brutal and corrupt regimes in the underdeveloped regions of the world. In Syria's difficult history, such brutality and corruption surfaced in the 1950s, following feeble attempts to have the country, free of dominance by the French, who ruled the place from 1920 to 1946, under what was known as a mandate, inaugurate a democratic order for its citizens. Coups, counter-coups, intrigues, executions of military officers caught in the act of planning insurrections have been part of Syrian history. There have been leftist politicians such as Michel Aflaq whose attempts to have Syria governed through socialism amounted to little. And then came the short-lived political union with Egypt under Gamal Abdel Nasser, known as the United Arab Republic (UAR). It lasted from 1958 to 1961. Syrians were happy to have their independence restored following the collapse of the UAR experiment.

Syria was pulverised in the Six-Day War in June 1967 by Israel. It lost the Golan Heights even as Egypt saw the Sinai passing under Israeli occupation and Jordan lost the most productive part of it, the West Bank, to Israel. To put it briefly, Syrians have historically paid a price for reasons that were not of their making. But worse was to come after 1967, when in 1970 Hafez Assad, defence minister in the government, seized power and would keep the country in his grip till his death in 2000. Any expectations that his passing would lead to a democratic opening for Syria came to naught, given his family's hold on power. Pusillanimous loyalists of Hafez Assad duly placed Bashar Assad, an eye specialist trained in Britain, in power as the country's new President. Under both Assads, sections as well as religious sects in the country suffered heavily. Under both men, chemical weapons were freely deployed against civilians and groups opposed to the regime.

The fall of the Bashar Assad regime sharply changes equations in the Middle East. It introduces a new element in a widening circle of global crises. With Ukraine and Russia remaining locked in war, with Sudan unravelling through the unabashed ambitions of its generals, with Afghanistan back in medievalism, with the far right making dents in European politics, an Assad-free but unstable Syria adds to the woes of the world. Looking behind one's shoulder, one spots the grave uncertainty looming over the coming four years with Donald Trump back in the American presidency.​
 

Israel continues strike on Syria military sites
Agence France-Presse . Beirut/Ankara 14 December, 2024, 23:12

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Israeli troops deploy inside the UN-patrolled buffer zone that is supposed to separate Israeli and Syrian forces on the Golan Heights. | AFP photo

A Syria war monitor said Israel launched strikes early Saturday targeting military sites in Damascus and its countryside, in the latest such raids since rebels brought down Bashar al-Assad almost a week ago.

‘Israeli strikes destroyed a scientific institute’ and other related military facilities in Barzeh, in northern Damascus, and targeted a ‘military airport’ in the capital’s countryside, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Strikes also targeted ‘Scud ballistic missile warehouses’ and launchers in the Qalamun area, as well as ‘rockets, depots and tunnels under the mountain’, according to the Britain-based Observatory, which has a network of sources inside Syria.

The Observatory said several rounds of bombardment targeted ‘military sites of the former regime forces, as part of destroying what is left of the future Syrian army’s capabilities’.

Israel air strikes on Friday targeted ‘a missile base at the top of Damascus’s Mount Qasyun’, the group said, as well as an airport in southern Sweida province and ‘defence and research labs in Masyaf’, in Hama province.

Since Assad’s fall, Israel has launched hundreds of strikes against Syrian military sites, targeting everything from chemical weapons stores to air defences.

In a move that has drawn international condemnation, Israel also seized a United Nations-patrolled buffer zone on the Syrian Golan Heights just hours after the rebels, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, took Damascus.

On Thursday, UN chief Antonio Guterres expressed concern over ‘extensive violations’ of Syrian sovereignty and the Israeli strikes in the country, his spokesman said.

Turkey said it had urged Russia and Iran not to intervene militarily to support Bashar al-Assad’s forces as Islamist-led rebels mounted their lightning advance on Damascus that ended with the Syrian strongman’s ouster.

‘The most important thing was to talk to the Russians and Iranians to ensure that they didn’t enter the equation militarily. We had meetings with (them) and they understood,’ Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Turkey’s private NTV television.

He said if Moscow and Tehran, both key Assad allies since the start of the civil war in 2011, had come to the Syrian president’s aid, the rebels could still have won but the outcome could have been far more violent.

‘If Assad had received support, the opposition could have achieved victory with their determination, but it would have taken a long time and could have been bloody,’ he said.

Turkey’s aim was to ‘hold focused talks with the two important power players to ensure minimum loss of life,’ Fidan said.

When the Islamist-led HTS rebel alliance first began its offensive on November 27, Moscow and Tehran initially offered Assad military support to hold off the rebels.

But the scale of the collapse of Assad’s forces took them by surprise.

And it came at a time when both nations were caught up with problems of their own: Russia mired in the war with Ukraine, and Iran’s proxies including Lebanon’s Hezbollah taking a major battering from Israel.

They quickly realised the game was up, that Assad ‘was no longer someone to invest in’ and ‘there was no point anymore’, the Turkish minister added.

Turkey expressed support for the rebels with experts saying it even gave its green light for the offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), without being directly involved.

Many nations, especially in the region, have expressed concern about HTS, which is rooted in Al-Qaeda’s former Syria branch and proscribed by many Western governments as a terror organisation.

But Fidan said it was ‘perfectly normal’ to have such concerns about HTS, which would ‘need to be resolved’.

‘No one knows them as well as we do, we want a Syria without terrorism, not posing a threat to the countries in the region.’

Since 2016, Turkey has held considerable sway over northwestern Syria, maintaining a working relationship with HTS which ran most of the Idlib area, which was Syria’s last bastion of opposition.

With open lines of communication with HTS, Turkey was relaying such concerns directly to them, he said.

‘We reflect our friends’ concerns to them and ensure they take steps. They have made many announcements and people see they are on the right track,’ he said.

The message that Ankara was sending to the new administration in Damascus was: ‘This is what Turkey—which has stood by you for years—expects. And this is what the world expects,’ he said.​
 

US, regional diplomats meet to discuss Syria’s future
REUTERS
Published :
Dec 14, 2024 22:02
Updated :
Dec 14, 2024 22:02

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Arab Contact Group on Syria, Aqaba, Jordan, December 14, 2024. Photo : ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/Pool via REUTERS

Top diplomats from the United States, Turkey, the European Union and Arab nations met in Jordan on Saturday for talks on Syria as regional and global powers scramble for influence over whatever government replaces ousted President Bashar al-Assad.

Outgoing US President Joe Biden’s administration has begun engaging with the victorious rebel groups including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led a lightning assault that ended in the capture of Damascus on Sunday.

Biden sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the region this week to seek support for principles that Washington hopes will guide Syria’s political transition, such as respect for minorities.

Meanwhile Syria’s northern neighbour Turkey has for years supported Syrian opposition forces looking to oust Assad and is poised to play an influential role in Damascus.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Friday that his country’s embassy in the Syrian capital would resume work on Saturday, after Turkey’s intelligence chief visited this week.

Syria’s neighbour Jordan was hosting Saturday’s gathering in Aqaba. Russia and Iran, who were Assad’s key supporters, were not invited.

Blinken, UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pederson and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Fidan and foreign ministers from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar met around a circular table at a Jordanian government guesthouse. There was no Syrian representative at the table.

The Arab diplomats earlier met separately and issued a statement calling for a peaceful and inclusive political transition that leads towards elections and a new constitution for Syria. The foreign ministers said they were committed to combating terrorism, which they called a threat to security in Syria, the region and the world.

Blinken, meeting Pederson at his hotel earlier on Saturday, said it was a time of “both opportunity but also real challenge” for Syria.

Arab diplomats attending the talks told Reuters they were seeking assurances from Turkey that it supports an inclusive political process that prevents partition of Syria on sectarian lines.

Turkey and the United States, both NATO members, have conflicting interests when it comes to some of the rebels. Turkish-backed rebels in northern Syria have clashed with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The SDF, which controls some of Syria’s largest oil fields, is the main ally in a US coalition against Islamic State militants. It is spearheaded by YPG militia, a group that Ankara sees as an extension of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants who have fought the Turkish state for 40 years and who it outlaws.

Blinken told Turkish officials during a visit to Ankara on Thursday and Friday that Islamic State must not be able to regroup, and the SDF must not be distracted from its role of securing camps holding IS fighters, according to a US official. Turkish leaders agreed, the official with the US delegation said.

Fidan told Turkish TV later on Friday that the elimination of the YPG was Turkey’s “strategic target” and urged the group’s commanders to leave Syria.​
 

Israel ‘crossed the lines of engagement’
Says Syria’s rebel leader as dozens of airstrikes hit Syrian military sites

Israel struck dozens of sites in Syria overnight with airstrikes, despite Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani saying his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group was not interested in conflict with Israel.

"Israeli arguments have become weak and no longer justify their recent violations. The Israelis have clearly crossed the lines of engagement in Syria, which poses a threat of unwarranted escalation in the region," Sharaa said in an interview published on the website of Syria TV, a pro-opposition channel.

"Syria's war-weary condition, after years of conflict and war, does not allow for new confrontations. The priority at this stage is reconstruction and stability, not being drawn into disputes that could lead to further destruction."

He also said diplomatic solutions were the only way to ensure security and stability and that "uncalculated military adventures" were not wanted, reports Reuters.

Israel has launched 61 strikes on Syrian territory over the past few hours, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said early yesterday.

The latest airstrikes follow a statement by Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, that Israeli troops, who seized the Golan Heights buffer zone with Syria last week, would remain for the winter on Mount Hermon in positions they occupied last week.

Katz's office said in a statement that "due to what is happening in Syria, there is enormous security importance to our holding on to the peak".​
 

Israel to double population in annexed Golan
Israel to double population in annexed Golan 16 December, 2024, 05:32

The Israeli government approved on Sunday a plan to increase the population of the annexed Golan Heights, while insisting it had no intention of confronting Syria after seizing a UN-monitored buffer zone.

As Islamist-led rebel forces swept Syrian president Bashar al-Assad out of power in the past week, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had ordered troops to seize the demilitarised zone between the two countries’ forces on the Golan Heights.

On Sunday, his office said that the government approved a plan to double the population on the Israeli-held Golan Heights.

The government ‘unanimously approved’ the $11 million ‘plan for the demographic development of the Golan... in light of the war and the new front in Syria and the desire to double the population’, Netanyahu’s office said.

Israel has occupied most of the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau, since 1967 and annexed that area in 1981, a move recognised only by the United States.

Netanyahu said, ‘The strengthening of the Golan is that of the State of Israel, and it is particularly important at this time. We will continue to establish ourselves there, develop it and settle there.’

The occupied Golan is home to around 30,000 Israelis and about 23,000 Druze Arabs, whose presence predates the occupation and most of whom retain Syrian citizenship.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar swiftly denounced the Israeli move.

Riyadh’s foreign ministry expressed ‘condemnation and denunciation’ of the plan in a statement, calling it part of the ‘continued sabotage of opportunities to restore security and stability in Syria’.

Doha said the Israeli declaration was a ‘new episode in a series of Israeli aggressions on Syrian territories and a blatant violation of international law’.

Last week, Netanyahu declared that the annexed Golan would be Israeli ‘for eternity’.

That followed an order he gave for troops to cross into the UN-patrolled buffer zone separating Israeli and Syrian forces since 1974. Troops have also operated in some areas outside the buffer zone ‘to maintain stability’, according to the military.

Israel portrayed the move, which drew international condemnation, as a temporary and defensive measure after what Netanyahu’s office called a ‘vacuum on Israel’s border and in the buffer zone’, following Assad’s fall.

A UN official in New York confirmed to AFP that peacekeeping force UNDOF ‘has noted a number of daily instances of the IDF (Israeli army) operating to the east of the buffer zone’.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has ordered troops to ‘prepare to remain’ in the buffer zone throughout the winter months.

In the aftermath of Assad’s overthrow, Israel launched hundreds of strikes on Syria targeting strategic military sites and weapons, including chemical weapons.

On Sunday, the Israeli premier said his country had ‘no interest in confronting Syria. Israel’s policy toward Syria will be determined by the evolving reality on the ground’.

In a video statement following a phone call with US president-elect Donald Trump, Netanyahu said Syria had attacked Israel in the past and allowed others including Lebanese Hezbollah to do so from its territory.

‘To ensure that what happened in the past does not happen again, we have taken a series of intensive actions in recent days,’ he said.

‘Within a few days, we destroyed capabilities that the Assad regime had built over decades.’

The Islamist rebel leader whose group spearheaded the offensive that toppled Assad on Saturday accused Israel of ‘a new unjustified escalation in the region’ by entering the buffer zone.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who now goes by his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, said, ‘The general exhaustion in Syria after years of war and conflict does not allow us to enter new conflicts’.

Washington in 2019 became the first and only country to recognise Israeli sovereignty over the Golan, during Trump’s first term.

Israel has previously announced plans to increase the number of settlers in the Golan, with the government of then-premier Naftali Bennett approving a $317 million, five-year programme to double the settler population in December 2021.

At the time, the Israeli population in the occupied Golan Heights was around 25,000.​
 

Israel to double population in annexed Golan
Israel to double population in annexed Golan 16 December, 2024, 05:32

The Israeli government approved on Sunday a plan to increase the population of the annexed Golan Heights, while insisting it had no intention of confronting Syria after seizing a UN-monitored buffer zone.

As Islamist-led rebel forces swept Syrian president Bashar al-Assad out of power in the past week, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had ordered troops to seize the demilitarised zone between the two countries’ forces on the Golan Heights.

On Sunday, his office said that the government approved a plan to double the population on the Israeli-held Golan Heights.

The government ‘unanimously approved’ the $11 million ‘plan for the demographic development of the Golan... in light of the war and the new front in Syria and the desire to double the population’, Netanyahu’s office said.

Israel has occupied most of the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau, since 1967 and annexed that area in 1981, a move recognised only by the United States.

Netanyahu said, ‘The strengthening of the Golan is that of the State of Israel, and it is particularly important at this time. We will continue to establish ourselves there, develop it and settle there.’

The occupied Golan is home to around 30,000 Israelis and about 23,000 Druze Arabs, whose presence predates the occupation and most of whom retain Syrian citizenship.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar swiftly denounced the Israeli move.

Riyadh’s foreign ministry expressed ‘condemnation and denunciation’ of the plan in a statement, calling it part of the ‘continued sabotage of opportunities to restore security and stability in Syria’.

Doha said the Israeli declaration was a ‘new episode in a series of Israeli aggressions on Syrian territories and a blatant violation of international law’.

Last week, Netanyahu declared that the annexed Golan would be Israeli ‘for eternity’.

That followed an order he gave for troops to cross into the UN-patrolled buffer zone separating Israeli and Syrian forces since 1974. Troops have also operated in some areas outside the buffer zone ‘to maintain stability’, according to the military.

Israel portrayed the move, which drew international condemnation, as a temporary and defensive measure after what Netanyahu’s office called a ‘vacuum on Israel’s border and in the buffer zone’, following Assad’s fall.

A UN official in New York confirmed to AFP that peacekeeping force UNDOF ‘has noted a number of daily instances of the IDF (Israeli army) operating to the east of the buffer zone’.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has ordered troops to ‘prepare to remain’ in the buffer zone throughout the winter months.

In the aftermath of Assad’s overthrow, Israel launched hundreds of strikes on Syria targeting strategic military sites and weapons, including chemical weapons.

On Sunday, the Israeli premier said his country had ‘no interest in confronting Syria. Israel’s policy toward Syria will be determined by the evolving reality on the ground’.

In a video statement following a phone call with US president-elect Donald Trump, Netanyahu said Syria had attacked Israel in the past and allowed others including Lebanese Hezbollah to do so from its territory.

‘To ensure that what happened in the past does not happen again, we have taken a series of intensive actions in recent days,’ he said.

‘Within a few days, we destroyed capabilities that the Assad regime had built over decades.’

The Islamist rebel leader whose group spearheaded the offensive that toppled Assad on Saturday accused Israel of ‘a new unjustified escalation in the region’ by entering the buffer zone.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who now goes by his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, said, ‘The general exhaustion in Syria after years of war and conflict does not allow us to enter new conflicts’.

Washington in 2019 became the first and only country to recognise Israeli sovereignty over the Golan, during Trump’s first term.

Israel has previously announced plans to increase the number of settlers in the Golan, with the government of then-premier Naftali Bennett approving a $317 million, five-year programme to double the settler population in December 2021.

At the time, the Israeli population in the occupied Golan Heights was around 25,000.​
Socially/ economically/ culturally marginalized Pakistani migrants/ online jihadists in the UK/ EU/ US will stay quiet on this development.
 

Turkey for providing military support to new Syria govt
Agence France-Presse . Istanbul 15 December, 2024, 19:15

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A rebel fighter stands guard as Syrian students rally near the campus of the Damascus University in the Syrian capital on December 15, 2024. | AFP photo

Turkish defence minister Yasar Guler said on Sunday that his country was ready to provide military support to Syria’s new government set up by rebels who overthrew Bashar al-Assad if it requested it.

He said the new leadership should be given ‘a chance’ and that Turkey was ‘ready to provide the necessary support’ if needed, in remarks reported by state news agency Anadolu and other Turkish media outlets.

‘It is necessary to see what the new administration will do. We think it is necessary to give them a chance,’ Guler said of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel alliance, which is rooted in Al-Qaeda’s Syria branch and designated a ‘terrorist’ organisation by many Western governments.

HTS has sought to moderate its rhetoric and its transitional government has insisted the rights of all Syrians would be protected along with the rule of law.

‘We have military training and cooperation agreements with many countries. We are ready to provide the necessary support if the new administration requests it,’ the Turkish defence minister said, without specifying what might be provided.

The new administration, Guler said, had pledged to ‘respect all government institutions, the UN and other international organisations’ and promised to report any evidence of chemical weapons to the OPCW watchdog.

Turkey’s top priority in Syria was to rid the country of Kurdish separatist fighters -- a goal which was supported by the new government, Guler said.

‘In this new period, the PKK/YPG terrorist organisation will be eliminated in Syria, sooner or later. Both we and the new administration in Syria want this,’ he said.

‘We have no problems with our Kurdish brothers living in Iraq and Syria. Our problem is only and exclusively with terrorists.’

The YPG (Syrian Kurdish People’s Defence Units) makes up the bulk of the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), a key US ally that defeated the Islamic State group’s self-declared caliphate in Syria in 2019.

Ankara views the YPG as an extension of its domestic foe, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which has led a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state.

By extension, it sees the SDF as a terror outfit, setting it sharply at odds with Washington, which has called the group ‘crucial’ for preventing a resurgence of IS group jihadists in Syria.

‘Our priority (in Syria) is the liquidation of the PKK/YPG terrorist organisation,’ Guler said.

‘We have expressed this to our American friends. We expect them to re-evaluate their positions.’

His remarks echoed comments on Friday by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who said Turkey would give the new Syrian government time to tackle the problem.

‘The elimination of the YPG is our strategic goal. We will wait for our brothers in Syria to eliminate the threat in their own land,’ he told the private NTV channel, saying the Kurdish group’s leadership ‘must leave the country’.​
 

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