[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh

[Saif]

Bangladesh wants good ties with India: Adviser

Md Touhid Hossain, Foreign Affairs Adviser to the interim government, said on Thursday that no one, including himself or anyone within the government, has ever stated that they do not want good relations with India. He made the remark in response to a journalist’s question at the Ministry of

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Bangladesh wants good ties with India: Adviser

FE ONLINE REPORT
Published :
Jul 24, 2025 19:56
Updated :
Jul 24, 2025 19:56

Md Touhid Hossain, Foreign Affairs Adviser to the interim government, said on Thursday that no one, including himself or anyone within the government, has ever stated that they do not want good relations with India.

He made the remark in response to a journalist’s question at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday evening.

When asked whether India sending a special medical team to Dhaka to assist with treatment for those injured and burned in the recent fighter jet crash at Milestone School and College in Uttara signalled any diplomatic coldness between the two countries, Touhid Hossain replied, “We want good relations with India. We want a good working relationship based on mutual respect. Our position on this has been consistent. No one has ever said — neither I nor anyone in this government — that we don’t want good relations with India.”

He added, “We have extended all necessary courtesies. After the incident (the aircraft crash), several countries expressed interest in helping, and India was one of them. We consulted the burn unit regarding their needs and conveyed those to India. In response, they sent two doctors and a nurse. They will provide whatever support they can. You see, people-to-people contact between the two countries has always been positive.”

On Wednesday evening, a three-member Indian medical team arrived in Dhaka to assist with the treatment of burn victims from the incident.

When asked about the foreign policy priorities of the current government, Touhid Hossain said, “We have not done anything to harm our relationships with any country. Maintaining good relations with neighbours has been a key focus, but that doesn’t mean we have become overly dependent on anyone. We have prioritised our national interests. Our goal with India is to maintain good relations, but there must be mutual respect and a conducive environment for cooperation.”

Responding to a question, he said the Chinese Ambassador in Dhaka recently assured him that the dam on Brahmaputra River by China won’t affect Bangladesh.

They have assured us, he added.

Replying to a question, he said that the setting up of the mission office of the UN Human Rights Council will be positive for Bangladesh.

The decision was taken in the interest of the people of the country, he noted.​

 

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Dhaka-Delhi relations show positive signs despite border worries

Bangladesh-India relationship demonstrated some ‘encouraging signs of goodwill’ in recent days despite killings along the border and push-ins prompting concerns from Dhaka

en.prothomalo.com

Dhaka-Delhi relations show positive signs despite border worries

UNB Dhaka
Published: 26 Jul 2025, 19: 39

The relationship between Bangladesh and India has demonstrated some ‘encouraging signs of goodwill’ in recent days despite killings along the border and push-ins prompting concerns from Dhaka which keeps focusing on good working relations with New Delhi, officials from both sides said.

The arrival of an Indian medical team in Bangladesh, coupled with a symbolic gesture from Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus in the form of sending delicious mangoes to the Indian leaders, reflects the ‘underlying spirit of friendship and cooperation’ that continues to shape bilateral ties.

Though tourists’ visas remain closed for nearly a year, official spokesperson at the Indian Ministry of External Affairs Randhir Jaiswal said they have been issuing visas to Bangladesh for various reasons - for various travels, medical emergencies and students. “We are issuing substantial visas.”

The visit of the Indian doctors and nursing officials follows Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s assurance to extend all possible assistance and support to Bangladesh in the wake of the tragic incident of plane crash in Dhaka on 21 July 2025.

The Indian medical team, now in Dhaka to help provide treatment to Milestone crash victims, held detailed medical consultations with senior officials of the Bangladesh Ministry of Health and doctors at the National Institute of Burn and Plastic Surgery in Dhaka.

They reviewed each of the critical cases, exchanged views on the treatment methodologies, and conveyed their assessment on future courses of treatment.

Taking India’s medical team’s presence in Bangladesh positively, Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain said the interim government always wanted a good working relationship with India on the basis of reciprocity and mutual respect.

“We always wanted that ... .from day one we said we want a good working relationship with India on the basis of reciprocity and mutual respect. Our position remains unchanged,” he said on Thursday, noting that they -- no one from the interim government -- never said they do not want good relations with India.

Earlier this month, Prof Yunus sent mangoes to the Indian President and Prime Minister in a sweet gesture of goodwill.

Often referred to as ‘mango diplomacy’, this tradition has become an annual gesture symbolising warmth and neighbourliness between the two nations and the gesture is seen as a seasonal reminder of shared culture and mutual respect.

In addition to the President and Prime Minister of India, the recipients include the King and Prime Minister of Bhutan; the President, Vice President, and Prime Minister of Nepal; the President and Prime Minister of Pakistan; and the President of the Maldives. These mangoes were sent on behalf of the Chief Adviser, an official told UNB.

Border killings

In February this year, Bangladesh and India agreed to take concrete measures to eliminate border killings, strengthen security and enhance cooperation on cross-border issues, following the 55th border conference between Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and India’s Border Security Force (BSF).

In order to reduce the incidents of shooting, killing, injuring, and beating of unarmed citizens on the border to zero, both sides agreed to intensify joint patrols in vulnerable areas, exchange intelligence promptly, undertake awareness campaigns among border communities and implement socio-economic development initiatives.

Dhaka, however, says border killings continue. On July 25, two Bangladeshi nationals were killed and another injured after Indian Border Security Force troops opened fire on them along the Bashpadua border in Feni's Parshuram upazila early.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Hossain said no border guard force has the right to shoot and kill someone who violates the law along the border, stressing that those who do this should be tried under Indian law.

“We are clearly saying that the border guard force does not have the right to shoot and kill someone who violates the law at the border. It is illegal. We have been protesting about this regularly. We keep continuing our protest,” he said.

As journalists wanted to know whether the interim government, although initially strict in its stance on protesting the border killings, has become a little softer now, Adviser Hossain said, “Not at all.”

Push-ins

Bangladesh remains concerned about reported push-ins from India to Bangladesh and Dhaka thinks these are still happening which is against the existing arrangements between the two countries.

The Foreign Affairs Adviser said there is a prescribed process between the two countries to identify and take back citizens through exchange of lists, but if push-ins are carried out without following it, it is a clear violation of the rules.

He said they have recently taken back several citizens through the existing arrangement. “We insist that they maintain this procedure. This is our expectation.”

On 23 July, the Human Rights Watch (HRW) said Indian authorities have expelled hundreds of ethnic Bengali Muslims to Bangladesh in recent weeks without due process, claiming they are “illegal immigrants” and many of them are Indian citizens from states bordering Bangladesh.

The government should stop unlawfully deporting people without due process and instead ensure everyone’s access to procedural safeguards to protect against arbitrary detention and expulsion, said the New York-based rights body.

On 8 May, Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry wrote to the Indian government calling these ‘push-ins’ – an apparent reference to collective expulsions – ‘unacceptable’, and saying that they would “only accept individuals confirmed as Bangladeshi citizens and repatriated through proper channels.”

Neighbours can’t be changed

Bangladesh and India witnessed changes after 5 August last year and both sides are trying to take forward the relations accepting this changed reality.

The downturn that the two countries witnessed over the past months in terms of bilateral business activities affected both Bangladesh and India, not just Bangladesh.

“Despite ups and downs, we can’t ignore India as our neighbor. At the same time, India can’t ignore Bangladesh. It is better for both sides to maintain cordiality,” a senior official told UNB.

He said, “A kind of imbalance was created during the previous regime. We are trying to make a balance,” he added, noting that Bangladesh-India relationship is not without its challenges.

Bangladesh is now heading towards the next national election, likely to be held in February or April in 2026. Like Bangladesh’s other foreign partners, India is also keeping its eyes on the developments in Bangladesh.

“We have said that as a democracy we would welcome holding of elections that are inclusive and includes everybody in its fold,” said Randhir Jaiswal in a regular briefing in New Delhi.

He said India wants a ‘positive and constructive’ partnership with Bangladesh.

“We have had engagements at the leaders’ level. We also had Foreign Secretary visiting Bangladesh. We have had meetings between our External Affairs Minister and his counterpart, and you know there are several areas of cooperation between the two countries that are ongoing including development partnership. So, that is the context in which you must look at how we want to approach India-Bangladesh ties,” Jaiswal said.

On 23 July, the Human Rights Watch (HRW) said Indian authorities have expelled hundreds of ethnic Bengali Muslims to Bangladesh in recent weeks without due process, claiming they are “illegal immigrants” and many of them are Indian citizens from states bordering Bangladesh.

The government should stop unlawfully deporting people without due process and instead ensure everyone’s access to procedural safeguards to protect against arbitrary detention and expulsion, said the New York-based rights body.

On 8 May, Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry wrote to the Indian government calling these ‘push-ins’ – an apparent reference to collective expulsions – ‘unacceptable’, and saying that they would “only accept individuals confirmed as Bangladeshi citizens and repatriated through proper channels.”​

 

[Saif]

Bangladesh-India relations should be based on equity

There have been positive developments in connectivity between the two nations, including the revival of rail and road links, the utilisation of ports, and growing energy cooperation.

www.thedailystar.net

Bangladesh-India relations should be based on equity

Despite frequent affirmations of friendship, Bangladesh often finds itself on the receiving end of disproportionate behaviour. The sharing of the Teesta River serves as a glaring example. FILE VISUAL: SALMAN SAKIB SHAHRYAR

The relationship between Bangladesh and India has been tense since the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina following the nationwide student-led movement in July-August 2024. Subsequently, anti-Bangladesh propaganda in the Indian media, coupled with Delhi's seeming reluctance to extradite Hasina, fuelled growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. Additionally, the chief adviser of the interim government visited China on his first bilateral visit abroad, breaking the longstanding tradition of visiting India first. This shift also led to reciprocal trade restrictions between India and Bangladesh on crucial trade routes.

India, as a regional giant and emerging global power, bears responsibility to recalibrate its approach to Bangladesh. The relationship has often been marked by asymmetry, characterised by political goodwill but lacking in equity. Dhaka is not just a smaller ally but a genuine partner, deserving of fair treatment that recognises its legitimate interests.

Equity in diplomacy does not equate to equality. It entails fair treatment, recognition of differing capabilities, and the establishment of systems that address power asymmetries rather than exploit them. Stronger nations must shoulder greater responsibilities not to dominate but to facilitate balanced cooperation.

The United Nations Charter upholds the sovereign equality of all its members. Regardless of size or strength, every country, including Bangladesh, deserves an equal voice in regional decisions affecting its people, resources, and security.

Non-intervention in domestic affairs is another fundamental principle of international relations, directly relevant to Bangladesh-India relations. India's perceived involvement in Bangladesh's internal political dynamics has often bred resentment and suspicion, undermining mutual trust.

These principles are not just moral ideals but practical guidelines for sustainable and respectful diplomacy. For Bangladesh-India relations to thrive in the 21st century, both countries must embody these values.

Despite frequent affirmations of friendship, Bangladesh often finds itself on the receiving end of disproportionate behaviour. The sharing of the Teesta River serves as a glaring example. Despite over a decade of negotiations, India's domestic political considerations, especially opposition from West Bengal, have repeatedly stalled the Teesta River sharing agreement. Meanwhile, farmers in Bangladesh's northern regions suffer from water shortages. The solution demands equitable negotiation and sensitivity to the environmental and human costs on both sides of the border, rather than dominance.

Similarly, border killings by Indian security forces remain a tragic and unresolved issue. Although both governments claim to be working to reduce such incidents, they continue to occur regularly, often involving unarmed civilians. Such actions not only violate bilateral agreements but also undermine the spirit of peaceful coexistence enshrined in international law. India must increase efforts to hold its forces accountable and address Bangladesh's concerns seriously.

Bangladesh maintains a significant trade deficit with India. While India exports over $11 billion worth of goods annually to Bangladesh, its imports from Bangladesh remain below $2 billion. This imbalance is shaped not just by market dynamics but also by non-tariff barriers, bureaucratic hurdles, and restrictive Indian trade policies. Equity demands that India provide preferential market access and remove trade barriers hindering Bangladesh's export growth. Only then can the bilateral relationship mature into a true partnership.

There have been positive developments in connectivity between the two nations, including the revival of rail and road links, the utilisation of ports, and growing energy cooperation. Bangladesh has accommodated Indian requests for transit and access to its territory. However, regional connectivity must be reciprocal, viewing Bangladesh's strategic location not merely as a corridor to India's northeast but as a sovereign asset to be respected and fairly negotiated.

India's aspiration to lead South Asia as a regional power must be grounded in consensus-building rather than unilateralism. Legitimate leadership requires generosity, fairness, and the capacity to uplift neighbours rather than dominate them.

Bangladesh and India possess significant potential for cooperation, ranging from climate change and disaster response to trade, counterterrorism, and cultural exchange. To unlock this potential, both countries must move beyond the old paradigm of dominance and dependency. India should regard Bangladesh not as a subordinate but as an equal stakeholder in South Asia's future.

Bangladesh, meanwhile, should assert its national interests confidently yet diplomatically, leveraging its growing geopolitical significance. Multilateral forums, particularly SAARC and BIMSTEC, should serve as platforms for reinforcing norms of equity, with active engagement from both nations to rejuvenate these institutions.

Sadia Aktar Korobi is a graduate from the Department of Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Dhaka.​

 

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Surely India won’t decide Bangladesh’s ties with Pakistan: Touhid Hossain

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain on Monday said as Bangladesh does not decide the nature of India’s relationship with Pakistan, similarly, India surely will not determine Bangladesh’s relationship with Pakistan. He made the remark while responding to a newsperson’s question at the...

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Surely India won’t decide Bangladesh’s ties with Pakistan: Touhid Hossain
Diplomatic Correspondent Dhaka
Published: 04 Aug 2025, 22: 28

Foreign affairs adviser Md Touhid Hossain speaks to the newspersons at the foreign ministry Prothom Alo file photo

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain on Monday said as Bangladesh does not decide the nature of India’s relationship with Pakistan, similarly, India surely will not determine Bangladesh’s relationship with Pakistan.

He made the remark while responding to a newsperson’s question at the Foreign Service Academy in Dhaka on Monday evening .

Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is scheduled to visit Dhaka on 23 August. This will be the first bilateral visit of any Pakistani foreign minister in the past three decades.

When asked whether India’s concerns over Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan would be taken into account, Touhid Hossain said, “I don’t decide how India’s relationship with Pakistan will be. Likewise, surely India won’t decide how our relations with Pakistan will be.”

Speaking about Ishaq Dar’s upcoming visit to Bangladesh, the foreign affairs adviser further said that the visit involves matters of mutual interest between Bangladesh and Pakistan, including trade and commerce, and that all aspects of the bilateral relationship will be open for discussion.

Bangladesh, he said, seeks normal relations with Pakistan. Relations are not going to rise abnormally to a higher level; at the same time, Bangladesh has also moved away from the earlier position of intentionally keeping ties strained with Pakistan. “Our relationship with Pakistan will be like that with any other country.”

Asked whether issues such as a formal apology for 1971 or the return of outstanding funds (including Bangladesh’s share of the State Bank of Pakistan and USD 200 million in foreign donations intended for cyclone victims in 1970) would be on the table, Touhid Hossain said, “Every issue will be on the table. What hasn’t been possible in 50 years won’t be resolved in six months.”

Emphasising that Bangladesh will approach talks with a positive mindset, the foreign adviser said, “We don’t want one issue to block another.”

On whether a Bangladesh–China–Pakistan trilateral initiative would be discussed during Ishaq Dar’s visit, Touhid Hossain said there is no such alliance among Dhaka, Beijing, and Islamabad.

According to him, an informal meeting took place. That doesn’t mean there can’t be another one soon. Bangladesh would welcome broader participation—perhaps one or two other countries could join.​

 

[Saif]

India to offer gun licences to people in state bordering Bangladesh

India's Assam state, bordering Muslim-majority Bangladesh, is to issue gun licences to ‘indigenous’ residents, its Hindu nationalist leader has announced, a move raising concerns among the state's Muslims.

www.newagebd.net

India to offer gun licences to people in state bordering Bangladesh
Agence France-Presse. New Delhi, India 08 August, 2025, 07:12

India's Assam state, bordering Muslim-majority Bangladesh, is to issue gun licences to ‘indigenous’ residents, its Hindu nationalist leader has announced, a move raising concerns among the state's Muslims.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has previously warned that the Assamese-speaking population ‘face the threat of attacks from the Bangladesh side, and even in their own villages’.

The northeastern state of around 31 million people is riven by multiple ethnic, linguistic and religious fault-lines, and was troubled by several bloody clashes in past decades.

Muslims make up roughly 35 percent of the population, most of them Bengali speaking, according to the most recent national census in 2011, with the rest largely Hindus.

Sarma announced on Wednesday the introduction of a website ‘where indigenous people, who perceive a threat to their lives and reside in sensitive areas, can apply for arms licenses’.

India has otherwise strict gun control laws, and critics and opposition leaders condemned the move.

‘This will lead to gang violence and crimes based on personal vendettas,’ said opposition Congress lawmaker Gaurav Gogoi on social media platform X.

‘This is not governance, this is a dangerous step backwards towards lawlessness.’

Sarma is from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The move is part of a wider populist campaign by Sarma's BJP government backing the majority Assamese-speaking people, including large-scale eviction drives against what he has called ‘illegal foreigners or doubtful citizens’.

It is widely seen as targeting Muslims speaking Bengali -- the main language in neighbouring Bangladesh.

But many ethnic Bengalis are Indian citizens, with roots in Assam long before the region that is now Bangladesh was carved out at the bloody end of British imperial rule in 1947.

Assam was the first state to implement a controversial citizenship verification exercise in 2019, which excluded nearly two million people -- many of them Muslims.

Tensions in Assam have grown in the past year since the overthrow of Bangladesh's autocratic government, once a close ally of Modi's BJP.

Sarma has warned that ‘the indigenous people’ in border districts ‘live in an atmosphere of insecurity due to the recent developments in Bangladesh’.​

 

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Indian ban unlikely to impact Bangladesh’s export target: commerce adviser

India already enjoys a substantial bilateral trade surplus, he says

www.thedailystar.net

Indian ban unlikely to impact Bangladesh’s export target: commerce adviser
India already enjoys a substantial bilateral trade surplus, he says

Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin today said India's import ban through land ports is unlikely to have any significant impact on Bangladesh's new export target for the 2025-26 fiscal year.

India already enjoys a substantial trade surplus with Bangladesh, while Bangladesh's apparel exports are many times higher than India's exports of products like jute to the country, he said.

The adviser confirmed that his ministry had sent a letter to India's commerce minister seeking bilateral talks to advance trade relations, but no response has been received yet.

"We have set the target conservatively, but we believe we can do better," he added.

The adviser made the comments at a press conference at the commerce ministry in Dhaka.

India yesterday banned the entry of certain categories of jute products, including sacks and bags, from Bangladesh through land ports with immediate effect.

However, imports of these jute products will be allowed only through the Nhava Sheva seaport in Maharashtra.

On agricultural goods, particularly onions, the adviser said Bangladesh has not imported them for a long time due to strong local production, though limited imports may be considered if necessary.

He also addressed ongoing negotiations with the United States on tariffs and non-tariff barriers, noting that the ministry is working to reduce imposed duties from 20 percent to 15 percent or lower.

Many tariff lines, particularly for food items, already stand between zero and one percent. These efforts, he said, aim to reduce the trade deficit without undermining the economy's resilience.

Last fiscal year's high growth, he noted, came from sustained efforts, including diversification, though more work remains both within the garments sector and in promoting non-traditional items.

The adviser said the FY26 export target is realistic and achievable, but performance could surpass it if domestic challenges such as energy shortages, banking sector issues, and customs bottlenecks are resolved.​

 

[Saif]

Step back or risk disintegration

THIS article critically examines India’s expanding regional hegemony, characterised increasingly by domination rather than genuine partnership. Under diplomatic rhetoric, this posture undermines the core democratic values India professes to uphold, including pluralism and regional cooperation...

www.newagebd.net

INDIA’S REGIONAL HEGEMONY
Step back or risk disintegration
14 August, 2025, 00:00

In its recent unneighbourly attitude, India has continued pushing people, including Rohingyas and Indian citizens, into Bangladesh. | Focus Bangla

India’s hegemonic impulses risk pushing its neighbours into adversarial alliances and fragmenting a once-promising regional architecture, writes Abdullah A Dewan

THIS article critically examines India’s expanding regional hegemony, characterised increasingly by domination rather than genuine partnership. Under diplomatic rhetoric, this posture undermines the core democratic values India professes to uphold, including pluralism and regional cooperation. Focusing on India’s sixteen-year dominance over Bangladesh, the article analyses how this influence compels ruling powers to actively or passively align with Indian interests, thereby eroding the principles India claims to defend.

The piece argues that resisting this hegemonic bullying — often disguised as ‘big brotherliness’ — should not be mistaken for anti-Indian sentiment. Rather, the critique targets hegemonic policies, particularly highlighting New Delhi’s enabling role in sustaining a fascist-leaning kleptocracy in Bangladesh, which poses grave dangers to regional stability and democratic integrity.

From ally to enabler

SINCE 1971, India’s approach to Bangladesh has been defined less by partnership than by control. Water sharing has been manipulated in its favour, with the Teesta and other river accords left to decay while upstream withdrawals cripple our agriculture. Energy trade terms and tariff barriers tilt against us, undermining industrial competitiveness as Indian goods flood our markets.

Since 2009, India has extended unwavering strategic, political and rhetorical support to the now-deposed Awami League government in Bangladesh — a regime that methodically dismantled democratic institutions, captured the judiciary, criminalised dissent, manipulated elections, and turned state agencies into instruments of lootopoliticraft. This is not a neutral alliance. It is a regional power abetting domestic tyranny for geopolitical convenience.

More damaging has been New Delhi’s interference in our politics. By propping up the Awami League, it has helped entrench a party-state that dismantled democratic institutions and normalised kleptocracy — a system where elites loot domestically in exchange for compliance with Indian interests. India remained silent as every major opposition party was systematically weakened through mass arrests, politicised court cases, enforced disappearances and relentless harassment.

New Delhi hailed Bangladesh’s elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 — despite overwhelming evidence of electoral engineering, vote rigging and the effective exclusion of credible opposition forces. India celebrated the Awami League’s ‘stability’ while ignoring that such stability was manufactured by crushing dissent, co-opting institutions and institutionalising a bureaucratic-mafia alliance.

Such silence is deafening. What kind of neighbour chooses silence — or worse, applause — as democracy collapses next door? India’s endorsement sends a dangerous signal: that power and control trump principles.

In the 18 months since Sheikh Hasina’s ouster and her absconding to India, the only favour India has inadvertently done for Bangladesh is sparing the nation the chaos of street riots that might have erupted over her hanging or execution in a gas chamber. Indian media and government have been untiringly involved in machinations to make Bangladesh unstable to reinstate her in power — despite the fact she no longer has any official address to return to other than a maximum-security undisclosed prison building.

Kleptofascism with Delhi’s blessing

THE regime India continued to support was not simply authoritarian — it was kleptofascist, a system where crony capitalists and party elites siphon national wealth, often shielded by public-private partnerships and politically sanctioned monopolies. Security forces and intelligence agencies operated with impunity, torturing, disappearing and intimidating critics. Elections became spectacles, not expressions of public will, serving merely to reproduce power structures.

India has seen all this — and endorsed it with open acquaintance. Why? Because Delhi’s calculus is cold: it prefers a compliant Bangladesh over a democratic one. A regime that grants overland transit, suppresses anti-Indian sentiment, opens ports and airspace, and aligns its foreign policy with India’s — even at the cost of its own sovereignty — is useful.

This is a transaction of convenience, not a partnership. The price of this utility? The slow, deliberate suffocation of 170 million people’s right to self-determination, justice and dignity.

Breaking promises

THIS complicity is compounded by India’s consistent breaking or delaying of critical bilateral agreements affecting Bangladesh’s sovereignty and welfare. Agreements on water, energy and trade are broken or stalled when convenient to Delhi; connectivity projects serve its advantage while deepening our dependencies.

One glaring example is the long-pending Teesta River water-sharing agreement. Despite promises over decades, New Delhi refuses to finalise this crucial pact, citing political obstacles in West Bengal and domestic opposition. The result is profound water shortages in northern Bangladesh during dry seasons — devastating farmers and communities, fostering deep mistrust and stalling regional development.

Energy cooperation reveals similar contradictions. Bangladesh has sought Indian assistance for energy imports and infrastructure, yet agreements are delayed, conditional or limited in scope, while India pursues energy diversification elsewhere. This leaves Bangladesh vulnerable to shortages and dependent on Indian goodwill, undermining its energy security.

Trade relations are no less problematic. India frequently imposes non-tariff barriers, arbitrary customs inspections and fluctuating regulations that disrupt vital Bangladeshi exports. While India demands open access to its own markets, its protectionist practices towards Bangladesh demonstrate a double standard that stifles economic growth and regional integration.

Strategic servility: a manufactured dependence

INDIA’S policy towards Bangladesh is not partnership but strategic servility. It ensured Dhaka’s ruling elite remain dependent on New Delhi’s blessings, and in return India extracts trade concessions favouring its north-eastern states, controls water diplomacy by withholding agreements like Teesta, militarises borders with impunity (where Bangladeshi civilians have routinely been killed by India’s Border Security Force), and cultivates a docile media narrative that suppresses criticism of India within Bangladesh.

Furthermore, India’s growing military cooperation with Bangladesh — while justified as regional security — comes with strings attached, serving to maintain influence over Dhaka’s defence and intelligence apparatus. The asymmetry of power renders Bangladesh vulnerable to coercion disguised as collaboration.

A partnership of paradoxes

INDIA claims to uphold democratic values globally. It participates in forums like the Quad and BRICS, preaches the ‘rules-based international order,’ and positions itself as the Global South’s voice. Yet, in its own neighbourhood, it is the chief enabler of despotism.

In 2008, Bangladesh held one of its last genuinely competitive elections. Since then, under the Awami League’s unbroken reign — fortified by Indian backing — we have witnessed the near-total collapse of judicial independence, the rise of party-based oligarchs, normalisation of extrajudicial executions, erosion of parliament into a rubber stamp, and bureaucratic colonisation by politicised loyalists.

How could India — which fought colonialism — help entrench a postcolonial autocracy on its eastern border? The answer is simple: geopolitical utility outweighs moral consistency. Bangladesh under Hasina’s regime did India’s bidding. For New Delhi, democracy is expendable.

Regional disintegration: cost of complicity

WHEN I say, ‘Back off or face disintegration,’ I mean not just India’s internal fissures — though Kashmir, Assam and northeast unrest are serious — but the broader unravelling of South Asian cohesion. Regionally, India’s hegemonic posture — from the Northeast to its hardline stance towards Pakistan — fuels mistrust and instability, leaving Bangladesh squeezed by pressures on multiple fronts. Many neighbours now explore deeper ties with China’s Belt and Road Initiative or regional alignments like BIMSTEC and the Bay of Bengal Cooperation.

Meanwhile, India’s moral credibility erodes as it undermines the very values it touts abroad — democracy, secularism, pluralism. This hypocrisy corrodes diplomatic capital and soft power. Crucially, India’s heavy-handedness in the region accelerates diplomatic disintegration, fraying trust and opening strategic gaps that rivals can — and do — exploit.

Nowhere is the risk of actual fragmentation more palpable than in India’s own north-eastern frontier. The Seven Sisters remain politically fragile, economically underdeveloped and ethnically volatile. Movements for autonomy, insurgency and cultural independence have simmered for decades, recently reignited by ethnic violence in Manipur and border tensions between states.

These regions, more culturally tied to Southeast Asia than the Indian mainland, perceive Delhi’s neglect and centralisation with growing resentment. India’s aggressive foreign posture — while trying to project unity and strength — may thus mask and worsen its own fault lines. Unless Delhi pursues genuine federalism at home and principled cooperation abroad, it risks catalysing the very disintegration it seeks to prevent.

Contradictions of Indian policy

INDIA presents itself as a democratic champion internationally but enables autocracy next door. It advocates sovereignty and non-interference while routinely intervening in neighbours’ domestic affairs. Economically, it pushes both liberalisation and protectionism, geopolitically balancing military confrontation with China alongside economic cooperation, and courting the US while engaging Russia for energy.

This dissonance weakens India’s credibility and undermines regional trust. It raises fundamental questions: Can a country that champions pluralism at home and abroad justify supporting kleptofascist regimes at its doorstep? Can it reconcile its democratic aspirations with hegemonic ambitions?

India’s policy appears torn between its rising great-power ambitions and the principles it once espoused, leaving neighbours caught in the crossfire. This delicate balancing act risks alienating crucial allies and destabilising India’s own growth trajectory. Moreover, the inability to decisively choose between competing global blocs may undermine New Delhi’s ability to influence regional outcomes effectively.

Step back or risk disintegration, not by force, but through erosion of trust, legitimacy, and history. The South Asian region’s future depends on respect for sovereignty, democratic norms and mutual trust. India’s hegemonic impulses risk pushing its neighbours into adversarial alliances and fragmenting a once-promising regional architecture. This is a moment for New Delhi to reflect: does it wish to be remembered as a liberator and partner, or as an overlord whose shadow hastened disintegration? The choice is India’s. But make no mistake: those who choose domination over dignity sow the seeds of their own undoing.

Dr Abdullah A Dewan is a former physicist and nuclear engineer at the BAEC and professor emeritus of economics at Eastern Michigan University, USA.​