[🇧🇩] Trump's Victory and Bangladesh

[Saif]

Trump’s return raises cautious optimism

Govt, businesses should take proactive measures in light of the new reality

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Trump’s return raises cautious optimism
Govt, businesses should take proactive measures in light of the new reality

VISUAL: STAR

Donald J. Trump's second term as US president is expected to bring significant changes to the world's political and economic order, as reflected in his inaugural speech and the executive orders he signed on Monday. We look ahead to the next four years with cautious optimism, given the unpredictability of his actions during his first term in office (2017-2021).

Trump's re-election to the top seat of a superpower and the continued rise of the ultra-right in the US sends a strong message. It signals a shift in America's view of the world and its international commitment to uphold human rights and promote peace and stability. As before, Trump's America-first policies may significantly impact international affairs where belligerent competitiveness may outweigh reason and compromise. On the other hand, there is hope that Trump, who took credit for brokering the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, may influence an end to the Russia-Ukraine war as well—two biggest international crises in recent years. We, however, hope that his recent scepticism about this ceasefire will not result in another unfair deal for Palestinians, who have already suffered decades of repression by Israel with the support of the US's one-sided policy.

Sadly, America's own track record of human rights violations does not inspire confidence. Trump's pardoning of 1,500 rioters involved in the 2021 Capitol Hill attack signals the supremacy of personal loyalty over the rule of law. What does this act say about the US stance on justice and fairness—values it prescribes to other countries? Moreover, Trump's pledge to launch a "tariff war," his idea of a universal tariff on all foreign goods, and his withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization are quite concerning, especially for countries like Bangladesh. However, the recent meeting between the new Chargé d'Affaires of the US Embassy and Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has left room for hope as the former renewed the pledge to support the interim government on issues including development.

In the meantime, the business community and the government should take proactive measures such as exploring and diversifying markets and products, engaging in diplomatic initiatives, and strengthening regional and bilateral ties with other nations. The government should also engage with the Bangladeshi expatriate community in the US to build a stronger relationship with the Trump administration.

Finally, the prominent presence of tech giants at Trump's inaugural ceremony should be taken seriously. The re-emergence of an ultra-nationalist leader could have serious consequences for the world, particularly in a nuclear and tech-driven era. This is especially alarming for smaller nations like ours. We can only hope that the superpowers will see the bigger picture and that good sense will prevail in building a cooperative world.​

 

[Saif]

Bangladeshis needn't worry over Trump's immigration policy

Trump would want to see elections in Bangladesh as soon as possible In the past 128 years, no US president has received such a large mandate. Donald Trump has succeeded in the electoral and popular votes, as well as in seven swing states. This makes his second-term inauguration especially...

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Bangladeshis needn't worry over Trump's immigration policy
Imtiaz Ahmed
Updated: 21 Jan 2025, 19: 17

Trump would want to see elections in Bangladesh as soon as possible.

In the past 128 years, no US president has received such a large mandate. Donald Trump has succeeded in the electoral and popular votes, as well as in seven swing states. This makes his second-term inauguration especially significant.

Trump's mandate this time is very clear. The victory reflects voters' consensus on two major issues: peace and stopping wars. Under Joe Biden, two wars were ongoing. Trump directly pressured Netanyahu to stop the Gaza war, as heard in leaked phone calls. This can be seen as a reflection of his first mandate. In his speech, Trump said, “I want to be a peace builder and stop all wars.” The key question now is how effective this approach will be in Ukraine as well.

Another reason for Trump's mandate is his slogan, “Make America Great Again,” implying that America is no longer “great.” This signifies America’s decline. Trump stated in his speech, “The decline of America will stop today.” Various problems have arisen within the US due to ongoing wars and the maintenance of military bases.

Internally, the US has decayed. Infrastructure is deteriorating, and the manufacturing sector has moved abroad. Trump has spoken about the healthcare system as well, wanting to bring major changes. One key change is that America’s allies will no longer get things for free; they will have to spend.

This includes NATO. Trump has told Europe that NATO's expenses must increase by 5 per cent. America can no longer bear these costs alone. It’s clear that if Europe increases its spending, they will become more active partners rather than mere dependents on the US. This could enhance Europe’s defence capabilities, giving them the chance to act independently, which would be a step towards a multipolar world order, something Trump appears to accept.

Since America is no longer great, stopping its decline is only possible through partnerships. Trump aims to create a framework for this, where Europe, for example, will now need to spend. This was previously covered by the US, as seen when Trump withdrew funding from the World Health Organization after taking office.

He claimed that the US was spending too much, and others, like China, should contribute more. If China increases spending, its authority will grow as well. In this way, Trump implicitly acknowledges the shift towards a multipolar world. How much of this will happen, only time will tell. However, the people’s mandate is clear: peace and restoring America’s greatness.

The issue of immigration is another point of concern. Trump’s main focus is to curb Hispanic immigration from South America, which has been increasing in the US. Some believe that Hispanics will soon become the largest language group in America. Trump has even suggested renaming the Bay of Mexico to the Bay of America.

He aims to stop illegal immigration, but not legal immigration. The US cannot survive without immigration, and this is not a major concern for Bangladesh, as most of its immigrants are legal. A system of legal immigration allows a country to control illegal immigration.

Before and after the US elections, Trump has tweeted twice about Bangladesh. One tweet concerns the treatment of minorities, which is not a new issue. The previous government in Bangladesh had also been considered by the US on this matter. Another tweet mentions that Trump will build a close relationship with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi.

This is clear. The Republican government will push for elections in Bangladesh soon. The US ambassador to India has already mentioned this.
If the Democratic Party were in power, they might have been more flexible about the timing of the elections. However, the new US administration will likely push for a quick election in Bangladesh.

It should be noted that the previous Democratic administration had also begun discussing these issues. Therefore, this is not something unique to the Trump administration. However, there is no doubt that the Republican government wants to see an elected government in Bangladesh as soon as possible.

**Imtiaz Ahmed is former professor, Department of International Relations, Dhaka University

**This column appeared in the online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Rabiul Islam​

 

[Saif]

TRUMP POLICY SHIFTS: Bangladesh treads tightropes

THE Trump presidency has significantly shaped the trajectory of US-Bangladesh relations, departing from traditional diplomacy and ushering in a transactional foreign policy approach. Under Trump’s leadership, US foreign policy pivoted away from multilateral engagements, focusing instead on...

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TRUMP POLICY SHIFTS: Bangladesh treads tightropes
Simon Mohsin 24 January, 2025, 00:00

US president Donald Trump speaks in the Roosevelt Room at the White House on January 21 in Washington, DC. | Agence Frace-Presse/Jim Watson

THE Trump presidency has significantly shaped the trajectory of US-Bangladesh relations, departing from traditional diplomacy and ushering in a transactional foreign policy approach. Under Trump’s leadership, US foreign policy pivoted away from multilateral engagements, focusing instead on bilateral dealings driven by immediate strategic interests. For Bangladesh, navigating this framework during Trump’s initial term and preparing for the anticipated impacts of his second term revealed unique challenges and opportunities.

Since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, its relationship with the United States has been marked by fluctuating degrees of cooperation and contention. In the early years, the US’s reluctance to support Bangladesh’s liberation war left a legacy of scepticism. Over time, however, shared priorities in economic development, counterterrorism, and regional stability helped to strengthen bilateral ties. Yet, recurring issues such as human rights, democracy, and labour standards have often strained this relationship, underscoring the complexity of these interactions.

Bangladesh’s geopolitical significance in South Asia has become increasingly apparent. Nestled between India and China, its strategic location on the Bay of Bengal positions it as a crucial player in global trade and regional security. Recognising these factors, the US has sought deeper engagement with Bangladesh to counter China’s expanding influence. Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Strategy exemplify Washington’s commitment to cultivating partnerships with nations that align with its vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. However, for Bangladesh, aligning too closely with one global power poses the risk of alienating others, necessitating a delicate balancing act.

During Trump’s first term, his administration’s foreign policy reflected a transactional approach, prioritising quid pro quo arrangements over multilateral commitments. For Bangladesh, this manifested in several critical areas. Economic ties with the US remained robust, with the latter serving as the largest export destination for Bangladeshi goods, particularly in the ready-made garment sector. However, Trump’s “America First” policies introduced uncertainties regarding trade tariffs and preferential access, creating apprehension within Bangladesh’s export-driven economy. The US also pressured Bangladesh to improve labour rights and workplace safety, particularly after the Rana Plaza disaster. While these demands aimed to ensure ethical practices, they were often perceived as prerequisites for maintaining favourable trade terms.

Geopolitically, the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy sought to counterbalance China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As a participant in BRI, Bangladesh found itself in the crosshairs of this strategic rivalry. Washington encouraged Dhaka to align more closely with US-led initiatives. Still, Bangladesh’s deepening ties with China in trade and infrastructure — including major projects like the Padma Bridge — complicated this alignment. While Bangladesh pursued a policy of neutrality, its growing economic reliance on China raised concerns in Washington.

Security cooperation between the US and Bangladesh also evolved during Trump’s tenure. Counterterrorism emerged as a shared priority, with the US providing support to address violent extremism within Bangladesh’s borders. Joint training exercises and military aid strengthened defence ties, reflecting mutual interests in regional stability. However, these efforts were occasionally overshadowed by US concerns over human rights abuses by Bangladeshi security forces. The administration’s compartmentalised approach — prioritising strategic gains while downplaying governance issues — highlighted the transactional nature of these engagements.

Democracy and governance in Bangladesh became focal points of contention during Trump’s presidency. The US expressed concerns over alleged democratic backsliding, particularly during the 2014 and 2018 elections, which were marred by allegations of voter suppression, media restrictions and opposition harassment. While the Trump administration raised these issues, it refrained from imposing severe consequences, reflecting a pragmatic stance where strategic interests often superseded moral imperatives. This approach underscored a shift in US foreign policy priorities, where democracy promotion became secondary to immediate geopolitical considerations.

As Trump’s second term unfolds, the implications for US-Bangladesh relations are significant and multifaceted. The intensifying US-China rivalry and evolving regional dynamics will likely influence the trajectory of these interactions. The Trump administration is expected to intensify its efforts to integrate Bangladesh into the Indo-Pacific framework, leveraging diplomatic channels to curtail Chinese influence and align Dhaka more closely with US strategic goals. However, Bangladesh’s balancing act between China and the US will be tested as it seeks to maintain economic and political autonomy while navigating competing global powers.

Economic relations between the US and Bangladesh are poised to face further scrutiny under Trump’s transactional approach. While the US remains a vital market for Bangladeshi exports, particularly in the garment sector, stricter conditions or tariffs could jeopardise these trade flows. Bangladesh’s reliance on the US as its largest trading partner underscores the need for diversification. Expanding trade relationships beyond traditional western markets, including strengthened ties with Asian, African, and Middle Eastern countries, could mitigate potential disruptions. Additionally, opportunities for American investments in energy, technology, and manufacturing sectors may expand, but these will likely be tied to governance or strategic alignment concessions.

The recent suspension of US foreign aid has introduced another layer of complexity to Bangladesh’s relationship with the United States. On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order pausing all foreign assistance for 90 days, initiating a comprehensive review of aid programmes. This decision, rooted in the “America First” doctrine, prioritises aligning aid with US national interests over development goals. The ramifications of this policy shift are significant for Bangladesh, which has historically been a major recipient of US assistance.

US foreign aid has supported Bangladesh’s healthcare, education, and infrastructure sectors. Programmes funded by USAID have addressed critical issues such as maternal and child health, infectious diseases, and disaster preparedness. However, the aid suspension threatens to disrupt these vital initiatives, potentially stalling progress in key areas. For instance, NGOs that rely heavily on US funding may face operational challenges, leading to staff layoffs and reduced services. This impact would be felt most acutely in rural and underserved communities, where US-supported programmes provide essential social safety nets.

The suspension also raises questions about Bangladesh’s diplomatic and economic strategies. A pause in US assistance may be perceived as a signal of reduced commitment from a longstanding ally, prompting Bangladesh to reconsider its foreign policy priorities. China’s growing economic influence in the region presents an alternative, but over-reliance on Chinese investments could limit Bangladesh’s strategic autonomy. Balancing these dynamics will require careful navigation to ensure sustainable development and maintain geopolitical stability.

Bangladesh’s strategic location and regional significance present both opportunities and challenges. Its proximity to the Bay of Bengal positions it as a key player in maritime security, counterterrorism efforts, and regional trade networks. Reduced American involvement in these areas could weaken Bangladesh’s capacity, prompting the country to explore alternative partnerships. China’s growing influence through investments and infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative could provide short-term economic relief but may limit Bangladesh’s diplomatic flexibility in the long run. Bangladesh must adopt a carefully calibrated approach to its foreign policy to maintain autonomy and leverage opportunities.

In response to these evolving dynamics, Bangladesh must prioritise proactive measures to safeguard its national interests. Reducing reliance on foreign aid and trade with a single partner requires comprehensive domestic reforms and targeted strategies. Enhancing tax collection mechanisms, broadening the tax base, and improving public financial management can increase government revenues, providing more sustainable funding for development initiatives. Encouraging remittances through formal banking channels and incentivising expatriate workers can also boost foreign reserves, strengthening Bangladesh’s economic resilience.

Diversifying economic partnerships is another critical priority. By expanding trade relationships with non-traditional markets and negotiating favourable trade agreements, Bangladesh can reduce its dependence on US markets. Strengthening ties with emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will open new avenues for exports and investment, enhancing Bangladesh’s strategic flexibility.

Investments in renewable energy, technology, and local manufacturing can further reduce dependency on external funding. Developing domestic industries and fostering public-private partnerships will create a more resilient economic framework, positioning Bangladesh for sustainable growth. Prioritising education and workforce development to drive innovation-led growth is equally critical, ensuring a competitive edge in the global economy.

Adaptive diplomacy will be crucial in navigating the complexities of US-Bangladesh relations under Trump’s presidency. Engaging in constructive dialogue with US policymakers to emphasise the mutual benefits of sustained cooperation will be essential. Highlighting the success stories of American-funded projects and their contributions to regional stability can strengthen the case for continued investment. Building people-to-people ties through educational exchanges, cultural programs, and professional partnerships can further solidify bilateral relations, fostering goodwill and understanding.

The Trump presidency underscores the importance of strategic adaptability in Bangladesh’s foreign policy. While challenges like trade uncertainties, human rights pressures, and geopolitical rivalries persist, opportunities for deeper economic and security cooperation remain. By strengthening domestic resilience, diversifying partnerships, and engaging in constructive diplomacy, Bangladesh can navigate the complexities of US relations under Trump’s transactional leadership, charting a path toward sustainable growth and equitable prosperity.

Simon Mohsin is a political and international affairs analyst.​

 

[Saif]

Yunus thanks Trump for continuing aid support for Rohingya

Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus in a statement expressed his gratitude to President Donald Trump for exempting life-saving food and nutrition support for the displaced Rohingya sheltered in Bangladesh from the US aid freeze..“Officials of the US Embassy in Dhaka visited High Representati

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Yunus thanks Trump for continuing aid support for Rohingya

COLLAGE: STAR

Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus in a statement expressed his gratitude to President Donald Trump for exempting life-saving food and nutrition support for the displaced Rohingya sheltered in Bangladesh from the US aid freeze.

"Officials of the US Embassy in Dhaka visited High Representative Dr Khalilur Rahman this afternoon and informed him about this exemption," said the CA's press wing in a statement.

CA's Deputy Press Secretary Apurba Jahangir also confirmed the development at a media briefing at the Foreign Service Academy this evening, reports UNB.

Apurba referred to USAID's nutrition assistance provided to Rohingya refugees and said this assistance will remain unaffected.

Chief Adviser's Press Secretary Shafiqul Shafiqul Alam and Deputy Press Secretary Abul Kalam Azad Majumder were present at the briefing.

US President Donald Trump recently issued an executive order suspending US aid to all countries for 90 days to review it and the decision was not country-specific.

"It's not country specific," Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain told reporters at the foreign ministry when his attention was drawn regarding the executive order.​

 

[Saif]

US presidential order suspends USAID projects: Should we panic?

The scale, magnitude, and rapidity of the executive order that has now paused all ongoing projects of USAID around the world is one of a kind in the history of aid.

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US presidential order suspends USAID projects: Should we panic?

The executive order issued by US President Trump has nothing to do with Bangladesh or its government. Photo: REUTERS

First of all, we need to stop politicising it. The executive order issued by US President Trump has nothing to do with Bangladesh or its government; neither does the government have anything to be credited or discredited for. USAID represents the interests of the US federal government. It goes through policy shifts depending on the priorities of the Republican or Democratic party and the incumbent US president. That there will be a major shift in USAID's funding policy was known. However, the scale, magnitude, and rapidity of the executive order that has now paused all ongoing projects of USAID around the world is one of a kind in the history of aid.

Which countries are affected?

It is despicable that Indian media and some Bangladeshi media outlets are trying to pick a point here against the Bangladeshi government. The Trump administration issued the executive order shortly after taking the oath on January 20, 2025. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clearly explained that the stop-work order is to review all USAID projects across the globe to assess whether the projects are aligned with the "America First" policy and principles. Staff working on Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility (DEIA) have been sent on mandatory leave. The order exempts emergency food aid from the pause. USAID has obligated funding of $68 billion. Among South Asian countries, Afghanistan stands at the top with $886.5 million in obligated funding, while Nepal stands second with obligated funding of $696.1 million. Bangladesh has obligated funding of $487.5 million and India has obligated funding of $153.3 million. However, all the obligated funding is subject to review.

What does the executive order entail?

The last couple of days were quite volatile for those working on international development. I woke up to a frantic series of emails and WhatsApp messages on January 20: "All media and social media communications related to USAID projects should be stopped immediately," the messages read. The next round of instruction was to stop activities related to DEIA. Finally, the communication was to suspend operations altogether for 85 days, within which there will be a review of the projects.

What is happening now?

As per the order, all USAID projects across the world have been suspended. The projects will now be reviewed based on which recommendations will be made to continue, modify, or cease a foreign assistance programme. This means, unless otherwise written, an ongoing project has not been terminated, rather, the projects have entered a review phase.

What will be the direct effect on Bangladesh?

As per World Bank data, Bangladesh received $5.12 billion in official development assistance (ODA) in 2022. USAID disbursed $469 million in 2022, which decreased to $448 million in 2024. USAID is a major partner, especially for emergency food assistance ($98.8 million), food for progress ($34.2 million), and Rohingya Response ($24.7 million). I do not anticipate much effect on the food assistance and humanitarian programmes that are subject to the review. Moreover, emergency food assistance is already exempt from it. It is evident that the Trump administration will not fund activities that have connections or relevance to DEIA or climate change. The DEIA sanction also extends to gender-based violence and activities related to gender, race, and sex. Health activities are likely to come under severe sanctions in line with the Trump administration's policy related to health in the United States. Bangladesh received around $40 million in aid assistance for health interventions from USAID in 2024. In brief, a review of Trump's internal policy should explain the likely outcomes of the review.

What will be the institutional and individual impact of this order?

Exactly how much of the obligated funding will be terminated is unknown. It is likely that there will be major reshuffles and realignments. In case a project is fully terminated, the shock will be primarily absorbed by the international contractors of USAID. These are all US contractors, barring a few major local contractors. The first hit therefore will be taken at home in the USA. The contractors are unlikely to incur a major loss as all expenses until January 24, 2025, will be paid for. The contractors, of course, have huge opportunity costs as they have to forego projected revenue. Essentially, they will cut down on expenses, trim down their sizes, reduce exposure to USAID, and shift to other donors. All of these will affect a narrow group of executive team members of the contractors in the USA and their regional hubs.

Absurdly, there are local contractors in Bangladesh that are heavily dependent on individual donors. These contractors lack the agility to move. There will be an institutional impact here. In case of termination of projects, there will be an immediate impact on the jobs of the local staff in the projects, a majority of whom are youth. There will be a displacement, but I believe, eventually, the market will absorb them as their skills are interdisciplinary.

The major impact will be on people who are direct recipients of the benefits from the projects. They will be deprived of the transformational services that were being facilitated by the projects. However, USAID is continuing food assistance for the Rohingya refugees, which is an early signal that direct transfers will continue. This means the poorest of the poor will be safeguarded.

Future implications

Change in policy is a constant in any field, but customers are never constant. Any business, whether for-profit or non-profit, should be agile, adaptive, and creative to sustain. By design, aid is temporary. Even though global aid has been on the increasing curve, it is way below the target to support activities to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

In 1970, in the United Nations General Assembly, economically advanced countries committed 0.7 percent of their gross national income (GNI) to official development assistance. In 2023, ODA/GNI stood at 0.37 percent despite overall growth in aid by 1.6 percent between 2022-2023. With an ODA/GNI ratio of 0.24 percent, the USA stands at number 25 among the economically advanced countries. For Bangladesh, the USA is the third largest donor. In terms of global diplomacy for aid, the USA is expected to commit more funding.

However, in terms of how the Trump administration sees aid, the USA's influence on aid might be much bigger than its commitment to aid. Whether the changes administered by the Trump administration are sustained or not is a matter that will be resolved over the next five years. But what is certain is that the organisations working on international aid have to embrace the uncertainty and work towards finding new avenues to support the development targets.

Md Rubaiyath Sarwar is managing director at Innovision Consulting.​

 

[Saif]

Trump’s tariff shockwaves and implications for Bangladesh

The imposition of tariffs by US President Donald Trump is a departure from traditional free trade principles promoted by the World Trade Organization.

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Trump’s tariff shockwaves and implications for Bangladesh

On February 1, 2025, President Donald Trump announced the imposition of new tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. FILE PHOTO: AFP

Trade policies play a crucial role in shaping global economic relations. The imposition of tariffs by US President Donald Trump is a departure from traditional free trade principles promoted by the World Trade Organization (WTO). On February 1, 2025, President Trump announced the imposition of new tariffs on three countries. As per the announcement, from February 4, imports from Canada and Mexico will face a 25 percent tariff while those from China will face a 10 percent tariff in the US. This policy shift has significant implications not only for economic growth and income distribution in these countries, but also for global trade and the US economy. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico have promised to impose retaliatory tariffs on the import of US products to their respective countries. China, on the other hand, has announced to file a case against the US at the WTO.

As a trade partner of the US, there are apprehensions as to how Bangladesh may experience the impact of such trade measures. The impact of Trump's tariff imposition on certain countries could have ripple effects on others in various ways.

First, the introduction of these tariffs is poised to disrupt established trade flows. Canada and Mexico, being the US's immediate neighbours and key trading partners, are particularly vulnerable. In 2023, Canada's exports to the US made up 78 percent of its total exports, while Mexico's were 80 percent. The 25 percent tariff imposition could lead to a significant reduction in their export volumes. China will also be affected, but it may be less than that on Canada and Mexico since China may be able to mitigate the impact due to its diversified export markets. In 2023, Chinese exports to the US stood at 15 percent of total exports, while 85 percent was to the rest of the world. Besides, the share of trade in Chinese economy has reduced since the early 2000s, which now accounts for about 37 percent of its GDP compared to over 60 percent in the early 2000s.

Second, the tariffs are expected to have contractionary effects on Canada's and Mexico's economies. Since they rely heavily on the US market, the increased costs of their goods may lead to reduced demand, factory closures, and job losses. Estimates indicate that Canada's economy could contract by 2-2.6 percent annually. As a result, over a million jobs could be at risk, particularly in the automotive and oil sectors.

In Mexico, the automotive and agricultural sectors are likely to be hit the hardest. The tariffs may lead to a reduction of economic growth by two percentage points. The automobile industry of Mexico is a large source of employment where more than one million people are employed. The tariff could lead to factory shutdowns and significant layoffs. The reduction in export revenue may also strain public finances and affect social programmes and income distribution.

Third, the US tariff imposition on these countries could also impact its own economy. While higher tariff is imposed to protect domestic industries, reduce trade deficits, increase tax revenue and protect jobs, consumers and businesses may face higher prices for imported goods. Higher production costs would push businesses either to absorb the increased costs or pass them on to consumers, creating inflationary pressures. Consumers could face increased prices for a range of products, including automobiles, electronics, and agricultural products.

Industries that rely on imported components, such as automotive and electronics manufacturing, could see increased production costs, potentially leading to higher consumer prices and reduced competitiveness. It has been estimated that these tariffs could shrink US economic output by 0.4 percent and increase taxes by $1.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034. The estimated job losses due to such tariffs on the three countries could be 344,000. Another estimate suggests that the new tariffs will lower the incomes of US citizens from all income groups—ranging from about four percent income reduction for the poorest fifth (poorest 20 percent) to about two percent reduction for the wealthiest fifth (richest 20 percent). Businesses that rely on imported raw materials and components may see increased production costs, which could lead to reduced profit margins, layoffs or relocation of production facilities. The uncertainty surrounding trade policies may also deter investment and disrupt supply chains.

For countries like Bangladesh, these developments present both challenges and opportunities as the US is a significant export destination, particularly for apparel products. The tariffs on China could make Bangladeshi goods more competitive in the US market, potentially leading to increased export orders. During the first tenure of the Trump administration, Bangladesh enjoyed a similar spillover effect of the tariff imposed on China. Therefore, it is critical to review the implications for Bangladesh's trade with the US, though Bangladesh is not directly targeted by the new tariffs. As US importers seek alternatives to higher-cost goods due to the recent tariff hike, Bangladesh may find opportunities to increase its exports to the US, particularly in the textile and apparel sectors.

However, there will be competition from other countries that are also aiming to fill the gap left by Canada, Mexico, and China. On the other hand, any global economic slowdown resulting from the tariffs could reduce the overall demand for Bangladeshi exports. To benefit from any possible trade opportunities and sustain growth, Bangladesh needs to strengthen its trade policies, enhance production efficiency, and diversify its export base in an evolving global trade landscape. Therefore, policymakers must work to mitigate potential risks associated with shifting global trade dynamics and seize the evolved opportunities from changes in the tariff regimes of important global trade players.

Dr Fahmida Khatun is executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.​