Wars 2023 10/08 Monitoring the Israel and Lebanon War

[Krishna with Flute]

Iran has taken a step back/ time out and is analyzing the evolving chess board. Fresh eyes and younger minds in the IRGC are giving it a good look over, a new war plan being formulated.

Iran could pull yet another Oct 7th any moment.......but a much bigger/ far more sinister event this time around.

This is not a religious war bhai.......This is just Iran doing what it always does. Fukks with anyone standing in its way. Doesn't matter who or why or how.

What you say is very correct but verses from Holi books are invoked for political purpose whenever it is required. Islamic brotherhood is one such Fraud . They fight among themselves and unite on the name of Islamic brotherhood and opposes Israel and India by invoking the verses from Holi book.

 

[Saif]

What will Israel, Iran, Hezbollah do next?

The last 72 hours in the Middle East – in which Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and continued to bombard the Iran-backed group across Lebanon – have once more ratcheted up fears that this long-running conflict could spiral into a wider regional war. Here’s what we know so far and...

www.thedailystar.net

NASRALLAH’S KILLING IN ISRAELI STRIKES
What will Israel, Iran, Hezbollah do next?

The last 72 hours in the Middle East – in which Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and continued to bombard the Iran-backed group across Lebanon – have once more ratcheted up fears that this long-running conflict could spiral into a wider regional war. Here's what we know so far and where things might go next.

ESCALATING CONFLICT

Israel has pounded what it says are Hezbollah targets in the Lebanese capital of Beirut and elsewhere in the country on Friday, Saturday and yesterday, including the attack on the capital's southern suburbs that killed Nasrallah and another top figure Nabil Kaouk.

Lebanese civilians say they cannot heed warnings from Israel's military to avoid places where Hezbollah is operating, because the group is highly secretive.

The US sees the possibility of a limited ground incursion into Lebanon as Israel moves forces to its northern border, CNN reported earlier. But the US officials stressed that Israel does not appear to have made a decision on whether to carry out a ground incursion.

WHAT WILL HEZBOLLAH OR IRAN DO?

In the wake of Nasrallah's killing – and the attack on pagers and walkie-talkies – Hezbollah's remaining leaders are likely to be assessing how to meet, communicate and respond. But analysts say the setbacks faced by the group are unlikely to leave it completely weakened.

"Hezbollah has taken the biggest blow to its military infrastructure since its inception," said Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and author of "Hezbollahland."

The group, however, still retains skilled commanders, as well as many of its most powerful assets – including precision-guided missiles and long-range missiles that could inflict significant damage to Israel's military and civilian infrastructure, said Ghaddar.

But the latest development raises the potential for a shift. Hezbollah will almost certainly respond, according to Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official.

Another key question is the extent to which Iran could get involved.

Iran's embassy in Lebanon in a social media post Friday called Nasrallah's killing a "serious escalation that changes the rules of the game," and said its perpetrator "will be punished and disciplined appropriately."

The Iranian envoy to the UN on Saturday also requested an emergency meeting of the Security Council to "condemn Israel's actions in the strongest possible terms."

Pointing to the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Hamas, Israel and Hezbollah, and Israel and Iran, former US State Department Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller told CNN: "None of these wars of attrition are going to end any time soon… there are no transformative, diplomatic Hollywood endings."​

 

[Lulldapull]

The issue here is the incessant backing of Israel by the west against Iran. Iran will not relent and fight the west for its share and take. This ain’t no religious war by any stretch of the imagination. Irani mulla are hardcore Persian nationalists.

It’s Iran vs the west for the control of the region. Plain n simple.

We need to watch out for which country next Iran will take over now. Is it Sudan? Or is it Ethiopia? Or is it Bahrain? Or is it goin be Afghanistan?

 

[Saif]

Several Bangladeshis missing, hurt in Lebanon

Several Bangladesh nationals living in Lebanon reportedly remained missing while many others became injured as Israel continued attacks on the East Asian country...

www.newagebd.net

Several Bangladeshis missing, hurt in Lebanon
Rashad Ahamad 29 September, 2024, 23:48

Several Bangladesh nationals living in Lebanon reportedly remained missing while many others became injured as Israel continued attacks on the East Asian country that killed hundreds of people and compelled millions to flee their homes amid air strikes that were intensified since September 23.

The panicked migrants who left the high-risk zones and took shelter on roads, mosques, makeshift centres, and other open spaces were passing inhuman life amid the crisis for food and drinking water.

Stranded migrants complained that they were not getting any support from the Bangladesh embassy in Beirut though the embassy, in an emergency notice, asked them to contact over the phone.

Shahriar Ashik Joy, son-in-law of a Lebanon migrant Razia Sultana, said that Razia remained missing since Friday.

He said that Razia, a resident of Hularhat in Pirojpur, migrated from Bangladesh 20 years ago and lastly lived in Dahieh.

‘On Friday morning, she talked to me but we could not reach her after that time. I heard from many that Dahieh area was demolished by airstrikes,’ he said and added that that they were not sure about what exactly happened to Razia.

He said that Delwar Hossain from Noakhali, now a hotel worker in the Navatia area in Beirut, also remained missing for the past seven days.

Emran Hossain Shovan, a Bangladeshi migrant in Lebanon, said that he had left the Dahieh area and taken shelter in a centre located five kilometres away from his place of living.

He said that his friend Shahab Uddin, who had been living near Beirut, also remained missing.

Md Firuz Dakua, another Bangladeshi migrant in Lebanon and the president of Probashi Odhikar Parishad in Lebanon, said that relatives of many migrants alleged that their relatives remained missing in Lebanon while some others sustained injuries in the strikes.

He said that at least five critically injured Bangladeshi workers were undergoing treatment at a local hospital though taking treatment in Lebanon was a challenging issue now.

Migrants said that Rehana Begum from Narsingdi and Abdul Mottalib from Feni were undergoing treatment at Hadat Central Hospital since they were injured in an attack on Friday.

Migrant workers said that there was no report of the death of Bangladeshi migrants so far.

They alleged that the embassy in Beirut remained uncaring about the humanitarian crisis of the migrants.

They, however, said that some humanitarian organisations and individuals came forward to help the affected people.

They demanded to the embassy to evaluate the situation like some other countries that had already relocated their workers to safe zones.

Neither the Bangladesh ambassador to Lebanon nor the first secretary (labour) there could be reached for comments over the telephone.

However, ambassador Javed Tanveer Khan in a video message on early Sunday asked Bangladeshi migrants to contact them over the embassy’s helpline and hotline numbers for any sort of help.

He said that the embassy informed the current situation to their Dhaka office and was trying to stand by the migrants.

He advised Bangladeshis staying there to stand by others and face the situation with courage and patience.

The south and east parts of Beirut are the most unrest areas and the authorities asked migrants to take shelter at safe zones.

The Bangladesh embassy in Beirut on Friday, in an emergency notice, advised the Bangladeshis in Lebanon to stay in safe areas.

‘In the given situation, the Bangladeshis who are still living in Dahieh or adjacent areas are advised to leave the area for northern Beirut or any other safe area,’ the notice said.

The embassy opened emergency phone numbers and asked Bangladeshi migrants to call for support. The phone numbers are 71217139 (embassy’s front desk), 70635278 (hotline), 81744207 (helpline). They were also asked to communicate through the Beirut mission’s email ‘mailto: Beirut.mission@mofa.gov.bd’.

The migrants, however, alleged that nobody in the embassy responded to their calls over the telephone.

According to the media reports, at least 700 people, including dozens of children, were killed since Israel intensified a bombing campaign in Lebanon on September 23.

It is estimated that over one lakh people now work in Lebanon, mostly in garment factories, hotels, hospitals and households.

According to Bangladesh’s Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training statistics, at least 267,364 Bangladeshis migrated to the country since 2002. Of them, 61,786 migrated since 2015.

Migrants estimated that over one lakh people were now working in the West Asian country.​

 

[Saif]

Is Hezbollah losing the war against Israel?

Dispelling speculations the Lebanese Shia Islamist militant group, Hezbollah, has admitted that their supreme leader Hassan Nasrallah has been killed in Friday evening in a massive Israeli air attack in Southern Beirut. Israeli Defence Force (IDF) also claimed that in the same airstrike it killed A

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Is Hezbollah losing the war against Israel?
SYED FATTAHUL ALIM
Published :
Sep 29, 2024 21:32
Updated :
Sep 29, 2024 21:32

Dispelling speculations the Lebanese Shia Islamist militant group, Hezbollah, has admitted that their supreme leader Hassan Nasrallah has been killed in Friday evening in a massive Israeli air attack in Southern Beirut. Israeli Defence Force (IDF) also claimed that in the same airstrike it killed Ali Karki, commander of Hezbollah's southern front as well as other Hezbollah commanders. Meanwhile, other senior Hezbollah leaders have been killed in Israeli attacks. With the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah as a political party, virtually the group's top leadership has been decimated. Definitely it's a huge blow to Hezbollah as it is now facing a leadership vacuum and the remaining leadership is perhaps in disarray. With Hezbollah thus put on the back foot, it's definitely a turning point for Israel, which saw no significant success in its war against Palestinian resistance led by the Hamas militants in Gaza. For Hezbollah it is obviously an hour of reckoning when Israel is mercilessly continuing its bombing campaign against it in Lebanon.

The Iran-backed anti-Israel resistant group, a formidable military force of the region, has suffered a series of reversals over a fortnight. September 17's explosions of pagers and other radio devices had already hit Hezbollah hard, a fact Hassan Nasrallah himself acknowledged in his speech after the incident as saying that it dealt a severe blow to the organisation. The pager attacks obviously disrupted the internal communication network of the militant group. Though the present leadership of the organisation has expressed its defiance and determination to continue the fight against Israel to support its comrades, the Hamas fighters in Gaza, question remains about the morale, quality of leadership and level of coordination within the organisation. The pager attacks followed by serial assassination of other senior Hezbollah leaders are a clear indication of the fact that Israel knows too much about Hezbollah so much so that the movement and its leadership are constantly under Israel's scanner. No doubt the militant organisation's security system has been severely compromised.

So, what is going to happen next? Will Israel take full advantage of this security flaw of Hezbollah to launch a full-scale ground offensive in Lebanon as it did it in Gaza about a year ago? Well, mobilisation of Israeli forces on Lebanon's southern border may be indicative of an imminent offensive. There is no doubt that Netanyahu, who successfully took out Hassan Nasrallah and his close comrades one by one, spruced up his image significantly, following a year-long Gaza debacle. The Israeli public is now expecting that Netanyahu could finally give them a victory that evaded them so far in Gaza. However, if Israel remembers the history of its past ground invasions in Lebanon, it will have to think twice. Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982, for instance, was initially a big success. Israel's army swept through Beirut, killed tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians and drove out the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) from Lebanon. There was no Hezbollah then. But Israeli occupation of Lebanon created the Hezbollah, from Shi'ite Amal movement. After splitting from Amal, Hassan Nasrallah and his associates first formed Islamic Amal, and in 1985 established Hezbollah with its stated objective of destroying Israel. He became the top leader of this organisation in 1992 at the age of 32 after the assassination of its top leader Abbas al-Musawiin in an Israeli helicopter strike.

Born in 1960 as the eldest of the nine children to Abdul Karim, who owned a small green grocery shop in Beirut's eastern Bourj Hammoud neigbourhood, Hassan Nasrallah was naturally drawn towards radical movements as Lebanon descended into a civil war in 1975.

After assuming Abbas al-Musawi's mantle as Hezbollah's top leader, he has been running the resistance group for 32 years. And the resistance war he started against the Israeli occupation forces in Lebanon actually forced Israel to withdraw its troops in 2000 from Southern Lebanon.

Other than carrying out blitzkriegs to win quick victory, Israel's capacity for sustaining long resistance of a hostile population is very limited as it has already been proved in Gaza. Killing civilians by air strikes is one thing, maintaining control over an occupied territory is quite another matter. Moreover, in consequence of the Gaza war and Hezbollah's year-long war of attrition against Israel, the economy of this Zionist state is already in a shambles. It is only through constant replenishment of depleted military arsenal of the Zionist state mainly by the US and its European allies that Israel can still continue the war against the Hamas and Hezbollah. From that point of view, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Hamas of Gaza are not just fighting Israel. In truth, they are fighting the collective West under the leadership of the USA where Israel is a client state. The question is how long can the West continue this support for Israel, which has already lost its acceptability globally, especially for committing genocide in Gaza? Along with Israel, the collective West, too, has lost its moral high ground as the champion of human rights, democracy and other great values they claim they stand for. Not only morally, the US and its Western allies are on the wane also economically. In that case, Israel's continued existence as an apartheid, settler-colonial power backed by the decaying, decadent West is not sustainable in the long run. So, the successful assassinations of the top Hezbollah leadership by Israeli airstrikes do not mean the end of Hezbollah; nor do those signify the turn of the tide for Israel.

Israel might have won a battle against Hezbollah, but it is essentially fighting a losing war.​

 

[Saif]

Justice or assassination: How world leaders react to killing of Nasrallah

World leaders warned of potential repercussions on Saturday after Lebanese militant group Hezbollah announced its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli air strike on a suburb of Beirut.

en.prothomalo.com

Justice or assassination: How world leaders react to killing of Nasrallah
Published: 29 Sep 2024, 08: 31

Hezbollah chief Nasrallah File photo

World leaders warned of potential repercussions on Saturday after Lebanese militant group Hezbollah announced its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli air strike on a suburb of Beirut.

The killing of the Iran-backed group's chief has intensified fears of all-out war in the Middle East.

US President Joe Biden welcomed "a measure of justice".

Iran

First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref warned Israel that Nasrallah's death would "bring about their destruction", Iran's ISNA news agency quoted him as saying.

The foreign ministry of Iran, which finances and arms Hezbollah, said Nasrallah's work will continue after his death. "His sacred goal will be realised in the liberation of Quds (Jerusalem), God willing," spokesman Nasser Kanani posted on X.

Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced five days of public mourning.

United States

Biden said Nasrallah's death was "a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis and Lebanese civilians".

Washington supports Israel's right to defend itself against "Iranian-supported terrorist groups" and the "defence posture" of US forces in the region would be "further enhanced", Biden added in a statement.

Vice President Kamala Harris said Nasrallah was "a terrorist with American blood on his hands" and said she would "always support Israel's right to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis."

Leading Republicans in the House of Representatives also welcomed the end of a "reign of bloodshed, oppression, and terror" by "one of the most brutal terrorists on the planet".

Russia

Russia's foreign ministry said "we decisively condemn the latest political murder carried out by Israel" and urged it to "immediately cease military action" in Lebanon.

Israel would "bear full responsibility" for the "tragic" consequences the killing could bring to the region, the ministry added in a statement.

Germany

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told ARD television that the killing "threatens destabilisation for the whole of Lebanon", which "is in no way in Israel's security interest".

Canada

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described Nasrallah as "the leader of a terrorist organization that attacked and killed innocent civilians, causing immense suffering across the region".

But he called for more to be done to protect civilians in the conflict, adding: "We urge calm and restraint during this critical time."

Britain

Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in a post on X that he had spoken with the Lebanese premier.

"We agreed on the need for an immediate ceasefire to bring an end to the bloodshed. A diplomatic solution is the only way to restore security and stability for the Lebanese and Israeli people," he said.

France

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot demanded Israel "immediately stop its strikes in Lebanon" and said it was opposed to any ground operation in the country.

France also "calls on other actors, notably Hezbollah and Iran, to abstain from any action that could lead to additional destabilisation and regional conflagration", the foreign ministry said in a statement.

United Nations

UN chief Antonio Guterres said he was "gravely concerned by the dramatic escalation of events in Beirut in the last 24 hours".

Hamas

Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel sparked the devastating war in Gaza that drew in fellow Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah, called Nasrallah's killing "a cowardly terrorist act".

"We condemn in the strongest terms this barbaric Zionist aggression and targeting of residential buildings," Hamas said in a statement.

Palestinian Authority

Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas offered his "deep condolences" to Lebanon for the deaths of Nasrallah and civilians, who "fell as a result of the brutal Israeli aggression", according to a statement from his office.

Huthis

The Iran-backed Yemeni rebels, who have been firing on ships in the Red Sea in solidarity with Hamas, said in a statement that Nasrallah's killing "will increase the flame of sacrifice, the heat of enthusiasm, the strength of resolve" against Israel, with their leader vowing Nasrallah's death "will not be in vain".

Turkey

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country maintains diplomatic relations with Israel but who has been a sharp critic of its offensive in Gaza, said on X that Lebanon was being subjected to a "genocide", without referring directly to Nasrallah.

Cuba

In a post on X, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel called the killing a "cowardly targeted assassination" that "seriously threatens regional and global peace and security, for which Israel bears full responsibility with the complicity of the United States."

Argentina

Argentine President Javier Milei reposted on X a message from a member of his council of economic advisers, David Epstein, who hailed the killing.

"Israel eliminated one of the greatest contemporary murderers. Responsible, among others, for the cowardly attacks in #ARG," it said. "Today the world is a little freer".

Saudi Arabia

Saudi foreign minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud told the UN that "this escalation will have... negative repercussions for the entire region".

"We call upon all parties to show wisdom and to show restraint in order to avoid a true war from breaking out in the region."

Venezuela

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro expressed solidarity with Nasrallah and Lebanon.

"They want to justify it, but to assassinate him, they attacked buildings, housing estates and killed hundreds of people. There's a word for this: crime."​

 

[Lulldapull]

Hezb is intact. Just assassination of some leaders. Iran just has to reevaluate the situation going forward. This is not a show stopper. Iran won’t back down unless the country gets invaded by the west, like all the other Muslim countries are who can’t even mumble anything publicly.

 

[Vsdoc]

The issue here is the incessant backing of Israel by the west against Iran. Iran will not relent and fight the west for its share and take. This ain’t no religious war by any stretch of the imagination. Irani mulla are hardcore Persian nationalists.

It’s Iran vs the west for the control of the region. Plain n simple.

We need to watch out for which country next Iran will take over now. Is it Sudan? Or is it Ethiopia? Or is it Bahrain? Or is it goin be Afghanistan?

Persian nationalism or Pan Persian Nationalism as its commonly called in the west, is greatly misunderstood. By Iranians as well as non Iranians, including you apparently.

How can the Mullas be Persian nationalists when many of them are not ... Persian.

Velayat e Faqih is not a Persian nationalism paradigm. Its an IR one.

This is a highly nuanced topic, dunno if it fits here on a Bangladeshi sub forum. Or what its even doing here in the first place.

Cheers, Doc