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[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

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[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy
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Budget support
$400m more comes from AIIB
Reforms regarding climate resilience in focus


FE REPORT
Published :
Jun 24, 2025 00:55
Updated :
Jun 24, 2025 00:55

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Assistance worth US$400 million is forthcoming from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in a latest flow of foreign aid for bankrolling Bangladesh's budgetary programmes--this one for climate-centric reforms.

This amount comes under a credit deal signed Monday in Dhaka between Economic Relations Division (ERD) under the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the China-based AIIB.

Additional Secretary of the ERD Mirana Mahrukh and the AIIB Acting Chief Adviser Rajat Misra inked the deal. Under terms of funding laid down in the 'Climate Resilient Inclusive Development Programme-Subprogramme-2', Bangladesh has to conduct different climate-related reforms, officials said.

The AIIB's $400-million budget support would be the co-financing with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) where the Manila-based lender provided a $400 million to help Bangladesh enhance its resilience against climate impacts, cut emissions in climate-critical sectors, and promote inclusive development.

With AIIB and ADB's financial supports, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) would establish "environment for climate priorities across the ministries, facilitate climate-adaptation priorities, and accelerate climate-change-mitigation actions".

Meanwhile, the World Bank on June 21 confirmed US$500 million worth of budget support and the Asian Development Bank another $500 million on June 20.

The $500-million budget support from the ADB would be utilised to stabilise and reform the banking sector by strengthening regulatory supervision, corporate governance, asset quality, and stability.

The AIIB will charge SOFR-plus a variable spread and a 0.25-percent front-end fee for the $400 million loan confirmed Monday, ERD officials said.

The maturity of the loan will be 35 years with a grace period of five years.

Under the 'Climate Resilient Inclusive Development Program- Subprogramme-1' last year, the AIIB also provided another $400 million to Bangladesh in budget support for implementing some climate-related reforms.​
 

Foreign loans should be phased out: Anisuzzaman Chowdhury

Staff Correspondent Dhaka
Published: 23 Jun 2025, 18: 46

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Anisuzzaman Chowdhury, special assistant (economic affairs) to Chief Adviser, speaks at a budget review meeting in Dhaka on 23 June 2025. Prothom Alo

Anisuzzaman Chowdhury, special assistant (economic affairs) to the Chief Adviser, said that foreigners enjoy influence in the country's policymaking due to dependence on foreign loans.

The country must comply with various conditions while accepting foreign loan in development sectors and that hampers both revenue collection and foreign investment, that is why Bangladesh must pashed out foreign loans, he said.


Anisuzzaman Chowdhury made these remarks while speaking as the chief guest at a budget review meeting organised by Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) and Policy Research Institute (PRI) at Police Plaza in the capital on Monday.

The special assistant said, “We have no plan regarding when our tax policy will be formulated or implemented. Whereas I have seen in Australia that a political party loses an election merely for proposing a rise in VAT.”

He highlighted the lack of national unity, apathy towards implementing political agenda, and tendency of politicisation in healthcare and education sectors.

“We have no national unity. We think about our narrow political interests. Even doctors and teachers here are divided into separate associations of BNP, Awami League, and other parties. We have no national vision. If we catch a mild cold, we rush to Singapore. So, how will the healthcare sector of the country make progress?,” he said.

Anisuzzaman further said that the country continues to operate on the politics of the 21-point, 11-point, and 6-point programmes, but there is no roadmap for implementing them.

MCCI president Kamran T Rahman and PRI chairman Zaidi Sattar, among others, spoke at the event.​
 

Bangladesh’s reserves stand at $21.75b

Published :
Jun 24, 2025 17:45
Updated :
Jun 24, 2025 17:45

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The foreign exchange reserves held by Bangladesh Bank have increased to $21.75 billion, according to the BPM6 method of calculation used by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

On Apr 30 this year, reserves had exceeded $22 billion after 19 months. Before that, reserves had previously reached $22 billion in September 2023, as per a bdnews24.com report.

However, due to the payment of dues at the Asian Clearing Union (ACU), the number dipped below $22 billion again on May 6, within six days. The country's reserves have now been below $22 billion for 48 days.

Bangladesh Bank Executive Director and spokesman Arief Hossain Khan spoke to the media on reserves on Monday night. The data said that the country’s gross reserves stood at $26.82 billion.

During the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the country’s foreign reserves had risen to $48 billion, on the verge of the $50 billion milestone.

However, after the pandemic ended, fuel and food prices shot up in the global market. Then came the war in Ukraine, which drove up import costs. Foreign reserves have been on the decline since 2022.

But remittance flows and exports have been increasing since August 2024. As a result, there is a bit more stability in the dollar market.

Though remittances and exports have increased, reserves are not increasing as much as expected. On this, a senior official of Bangladesh Bank told bdnews24.com that the new governor has not sold dollars from reserves since taking office.

However, during this time, the outstanding dues on the previous letter of credit have been repaid. Therefore, even though remittances and export earnings have increased, reserves have not.

Under the circumstances, the question naturally arises - where have the approximately $9 billion that came in from excess remittances and export earnings in the current fiscal year go?

The answer is that Bangladesh Bank’s balance of payments (BOP) calculations say that the success of the large growth in remittances and export earnings has been offset by a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign grants and medium and long-term foreign loans.

Compared with the previous fiscal year, FDI was about $370 million less in the first 10 months (July-April) of the current fiscal year 2024-25. At the same time, grants (foreign aid) fell by $1.86 billion.

Medium and long-term foreign loans were also $1.36 billion lower. In total, these three sectors -– all important for any country's economy -– brought in $3.61 billion less.

And in the first 10 months of the current fiscal year, goods worth an additional $2.42 billion were imported. The amount of foreign loan repayments and expenditure in the service sector also increased during this period.

Bangladesh Bank officials say that the dollar crisis that prevailed in the last two to three years has passed. Since the change of course, a record amount of foreign debt, service charges, and outstanding letters of credit (LCs) dues have been paid on time.

Due to this, despite the large growth in remittances and expatriate income, reserves have not increased.

However, it is also true that the reserve level is not putting a strain on the economy. Traders are now able to open LCs for imports according to their needs.

Even after the exchange rate was market-oriented, the price of the dollar has remained stable. These are good signs for the country's economy, say senior officials of Bangladesh Bank.​
 

Reducing impacts of indirect tax on public

Published :
Jun 25, 2025 00:57

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In about every instance of the government's attempt at increasing revenue income from businesses, the burden ultimately falls on the common consumers. The general public, the overwhelming majority of whom are people in the low and middle income bracket, are law-abiding citizens and hence not willing to fall afoul of the law. But that is hardly the case with some business entities which are prone to evade tax and pass the buck to the general consumers. Some 152 items, majority of which belonging to the category of essential commodities such as rice, wheat, edible oils, etc., according to a report published in this paper on June 23, are going to see a price hike with the budget for FY 2025-26 taking effect from July 1 next.

The general consumer will have to spend extra money because the revenue authority will impose Advance Income Tax (AIT) at 2.0 per cent rate at the import stage of many of those commodities. Notably, the items under consideration are exempted from such kind of taxes in the current budget (for FY2024-25). Essentially, the measure aims to gradually phase out exemptions from the tax regime and enhance tax compliance among all the members of the business community and at the same time boost the government's revenue earning. AIT is expected to bring the usual tax-dodgers under the tax net, because they would like to be reimbursed against AIT paid before. Whether such hope of the revenue department would be finally realised remains to be seen.

The tax authority's target is, as could be gathered, to increase revenue collection by around Tk20 billion. But the sectors' targeted for such exemption phase-out include critical raw materials for the country's garment sector such as cotton and manmade fibres. The essential food items include potato, onion, lentil, chickpea, soybean, maize and so on. Also, fertilisers, crude edible oil, sugar, various medical implements, computers, printers, even aircraft and buses will be affected by the new tax regime. It is worthwhile to note that each of the mentioned items to be brought under the phase-out programme is going to affect common consumers. But how is the exemption phase-out measure by the revenue authority affect the average taxpaying citizens? In the case of essential commodities, for instance, traders who import those essential items would avoid submission of tax returns. In consequence, they won't get the opportunity to be reimbursed by the tax authority against AIT they were supposed to pay at the beginning. But to make up for the loss, the only option before them will be to punish the general consumers by hiking up commodity prices. Price hike of essential commodities means a concomitant rise in inflation rate, though the Bangladesh Bank expects that the inflation will remain within the range of 7.0 to 8.0 per cent. But once the impact of AIT on the previously tax-exempted items start to affect the commodities market by pushing up prices, the projection that the inflation rate would at a point decline to 5.0 per cent by the end 2025 may not materialise.

So, any fall in prices of commodities and energy in the next fiscal may turn out to be a pipe dream. Such pessimism is not entirely attributable to the developments at home. Bangladesh being highly dependent on the external markets for its imports as well as exports, any instability in the international market is going to affect not only the economy, but also life in general here. Any disruptions in the energy supply chain arising, for instance, from the ongoing Middle-Eastern conflicts would spell disaster locally. The government's policies ought to be geared to making life easier for common people by reducing additional tax or any other forms of burden.​
 

Transitory inflation relief may mask risks of derailing recovery

FE REPORT
Published :
Jun 25, 2025 00:41
Updated :
Jun 25, 2025 00:41

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inset-p-1-2Transitory inflation relief may be masking long-term risks that could derail Bangladesh's economic recovery, an official outfit alerts as pressures of prices persist.

High prices of essential food items, particularly rice and fish, have kept food inflation stubbornly high, despite signs of macroeconomic stabilisation and government efforts to tame prices, says the General Economic Division (GED) of the Planning Commission.

In its latest report, the GED reveals that these two staples alone accounted for a staggering 62 per cent of total food inflation in May, highlighting deep-rooted structural weaknesses in agriculture and supply chains.

The June issue of the 'Economic Update and Outlook' shows that headline inflation fell to 9.05 per cent in May -- the lowest since the post-pandemic and Ukraine war-induced inflationary surge.

However, volatility in essential-commodity markets continues to plague consumers, and the GED warns that short-term relief may be masking long-term risks that could derail the broader economic recovery.

The General Economic Division released its publication Tuesday, underscoring continued volatility in the essential-commodity markets.

It points out that the medium varieties of rice alone contributed 20.46 per cent to the food inflation, followed by significant inputs from coarse rice and Hilsa fish. Price drops in potatoes and poultry saved the situation with modicum relief, but were insufficient to counteract the broader upward pressure from staple items.

"Inflationary pressures remain a serious concern," the report notes. The government's dual-track approach, combining supply-side actions with foreign-exchange stabilisation, has helped cool prices slightly, but long-term risks persist.

Despite latest signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, the GED alerts, Bangladesh's economy remains burdened with persistent inflation, weak revenue mobilisation, and external-sector vulnerabilities.

The report also analyses several issues of the national budget worth Tk 7.97 trillion for the next fiscal year (FY 2025-26) approved recently and marks a shift toward fiscal restraint.

The GED says the budget aims to reduce the deficit to 3.62 per cent of GDP but successful implementation of the budget is contingent upon collecting revenue equal to 9.0 per cent of GDP -- an ambitious target in a slow-growing, inflation-hit economy.

The budget sharply reduces bank borrowing targets by 24 per cent compared to the current fiscal year, but weak revenue inflows have already led to increased government dependence on bank financing.

Although bank-deposit growth briefly improved in March due to increased remittances and regained clientele trust, high inflation continues to erode real savings.

The division found strong export-sector performance in May, following a seasonal low in April, but expressed concern over persisting pressure on exchange rate.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh's nominal and real effective exchange rates point to a loss in external competitiveness, driven by structural imbalances and rising import costs, it says.

Foreign-exchange reserves showed signs of recovery, peaking in April, but usable reserves remain under pressure as reflected in BPM6-adjusted figures.

The GED report applauds initiatives such as digital budgeting, tariff cutbacks in preparation for LDC graduation, and expansion of social- protection schemes.

Daily wages for employment-support programmes are set to rise from Tk 400 to Tk 500, and monthly allowances for the disabled and widows will also increase.

But GED stresses that these measures must be backed by reforms in banking, capital market, and governance to deliver real impact.

A noteworthy feature of the FY26 budget is recognising women's unpaid domestic and caregiving work in GDP estimates -- a significant shift in economic accounting.

"While the fiscal framework signals a return to discipline, risks around inflation, exchange-rate volatility, and revenue shortfalls could undermine budget execution," the report concludes.

The government targets 5.5-percent GDP growth and 6.5-percent inflation for the next fiscal year, but GED warns that without urgent reforms, these targets may prove overly optimistic in an increasingly uncertain economic environment.​
 

Reserves to edge up as IMF expands support to $5.5b
The lender backs reform progress despite political uncertainty, trade volatility

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Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves are projected to rise modestly to $23.6 billion in the next fiscal year from $21.7 billion in the current year, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expanded its total support package amid ongoing efforts to stabilise the country's macroeconomy.

The reserve uptick comes after the IMF Executive Board approved the completion of the third and fourth reviews of Bangladesh's reform programme. The decision unlocked immediate access to a combined amount of $1.34 billion.

Gross reserves stood at $27.30 billion as of June 24, while reserves measured under the IMF's BPM6 manual were $22.24 billion, according to data published by Bangladesh Bank. The latest numbers underscore the limited room available to manage external shocks.

With foreign reserves still fragile, a narrow fiscal margin, and banking risks rising, the IMF's backing provides both funding and credibility. But, as the IMF made clear, the next phase of Bangladesh's recovery will depend on consistent execution across all fronts -- from exchange rate management and tax reform to governance and green investment.

"Bangladesh's economy continues to navigate multiple macroeconomic challenges," said Nigel Clarke, IMF deputy managing director and acting chair. "Despite a difficult environment, programme performance has remained broadly on track, and the authorities are committed to implementing necessary policy actions and reforms."

The original IMF loan package for Bangladesh, approved in 2023, totalled $4.7 billion. Following the augmentation approved on Monday, the total size of the programme has increased by $800 million to $5.5 billion. Of this, $3.31 billion has been disbursed so far.

The IMF cited "broadly satisfactory" performance despite political instability, rising trade barriers, and financial sector stress in the wake of the 2024 popular uprising that unseated the previous government. "Advancing the reform agenda is critical to restoring economic stability, protecting the vulnerable, and supporting inclusive and environmentally sustainable growth," the IMF said.

Trade figures highlight ongoing volatility. Exports are expected to grow by 5.2 percent in FY2025, recovering from a 17.1 percent decline the previous year. Momentum is projected to accelerate in the next fiscal year, with exports rising 19.8 percent. Imports are also set to increase by 5.8 percent in FY2025 and 11.6 percent the following year, reflecting a gradual pickup in domestic demand and higher energy-related costs.

Economic growth is now projected at 5.4 percent in the next fiscal year, a downward revision from the IMF's earlier 6.5 percent forecast, and broadly in line with the government's own estimate of 5.5 percent. Annual average inflation is expected to fall to 6.2 percent in FY2026, down from 9.9 percent in the current year. In April, the IMF had forecast a lower 5.18 percent inflation rate.

"Near-term policies should prioritise rebuilding external resilience and reducing inflation," Clarke said. "The authorities' recent steps to implement a new exchange rate regime and include revenue-enhancing measures in the FY2026 budget are welcome."

Clarke warned that "efforts to raise tax revenues and rationalise expenditures, including through subsidy reduction, are critical for creating the fiscal space needed to strengthen social, development, and climate initiatives."

"Sustained progress in reducing government subsidies to a fiscally sustainable level, along with enhanced public financial management, is essential to improving spending efficiency and mitigating fiscal risks," he added.

The IMF also flagged continued stress in the financial sector and urged authorities to accelerate banking reform. "Financial sector policy should prioritise safeguarding stability and addressing rising vulnerabilities," Clarke said. "Developing a comprehensive, sequenced strategy to guide reforms is an immediate priority, followed by the swift implementation of the new legal frameworks to enable orderly bank restructuring while protecting small depositors."

On climate finance, the IMF reiterated that reforms must be anchored in institutional efficiency. "Building resilience to natural disasters is essential for achieving high and inclusive growth," Clarke said.

While the IMF granted a waiver for the temporary breach of a performance criterion related to exchange restrictions, citing corrective measures, the IMF made clear that the path ahead will require sustained reform. "Sustained structural reforms are essential for Bangladesh to achieve its goal of attaining upper-middle-income status," Clarke said.​
 

Bulging NPLs enough to derail economy

Mir Mostafizur Rahaman
Published :
Jun 17, 2025 00:00
Updated :
Jun 17, 2025 00:00

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A sound banking sector is the bedrock of a sound economy. The experience of economies across the world attests to this assertion: without a vibrant, healthy, and functioning banking system, no country can dream of sustainable development, let alone achieve rapid economic growth. In Bangladesh, however, the very pillar that is meant to support the economy stands increasingly weakened by a long-standing and dangerous affliction -- classified loans, also known as non-performing loans (NPLs).

Non-performing loans are the Achilles heel of the country's banking sector. This is not a new problem; it has plagued Bangladesh for decades. Yet the gravity of the crisis has intensified alarmingly in recent years, especially since the previous Awami League-led government came to power. That regime, often accused of favouring certain oligarchic business groups, oversaw a disturbing trend of ballooning bank credit disbursed to politically connected individuals and firms. As these borrowers defaulted on repayment, with little or no punitive action, the culture of willful default took root and grew like an unchecked weed.

Despite efforts by the current interim government to restore discipline in the banking sector, the classified loan problem continues to snowball. The new administration had pledged decisive steps to reduce bad loans, and indeed it undertook several measures aimed at stricter classification rules and enforcement. Yet, the latest figures paint a grim picture: the volume of NPLs has risen significantly, threatening not just the stability of the banking sector but also the broader economy.

According to the latest data, classified loans in Bangladesh's banking industry soared by around Tk 750 billion in just three months -- an astronomical jump that pushed total NPLs to a record Tk 4.20 trillion by the end of March 2025. This now accounts for a staggering 24.13 per cent of all loans -- up from just 11.11 per cent a year earlier. In real terms, nearly one out of every four taka lent by the banks has gone bad.

To put this into perspective, the total outstanding loans across the 61 commercial banks in the country now stand at Tk 17.42 trillion. The Tk 4.20 trillion in classified loans includes substandard, doubtful, and bad/loss categories. Alarmingly, a massive 81.38 per cent -- over Tk 3.41 trillion -- of this amount falls under the "bad loan" category, which means there is little hope of recovery unless extraordinary measures are taken.

The implications are serious. When banks are saddled with high NPLs, their ability to disburse fresh loans gets crippled. As more of their funds are locked up in unrecoverable accounts, their liquidity dries up, forcing them to become extremely conservative in extending new credit. This hits private investment hard. Without access to finance, businesses cannot expand, create jobs, or innovate. Economic stagnation follows. And in a country like Bangladesh, where private sector investment is a key growth driver, this can be disastrous.

Furthermore, banks are legally required to maintain provisioning -- setting aside a portion of their earnings to cover the potential losses from bad loans. As NPLs mount, so does the provisioning requirement, which eats into bank profits and leaves them less capitalised. Weak capitalisation can invite further regulatory scrutiny, damage investor confidence, and eventually force banks into a vicious cycle of distress.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB), the country's central bank, acknowledges the worsening trend. In an effort to impose tighter discipline, the central bank revised the overdue loan classification system, reducing the tenure from nine months to six months. Starting from March 31, 2025, the classification period will be further shortened to three months. While these stricter norms are commendable and necessary, they also mean that the banks must brace for more loans turning classified in the coming quarters unless recovery improves dramatically.

There are structural and historical reasons behind this surge in NPLs. For the last 15 years, during the previous government's rule, a number of business accounts were opened by individuals and entities favoured by the regime. Many of these accounts were based on inflated projections, non-existent cash flows, or political protection. With the change in regime following the July-August 2024 mass uprising, many such businesses have gone into hibernation. Sales turnover has plummeted, and cash flow has dried up. These accounts are now turning toxic, and banks are left to deal with the fallout.

Moreover, some banks have been effectively captured by vested interest groups -- a "vicious circle" of politically connected borrowers and complicit bank directors. These forces have laundered public money with impunity, leaving behind a hollowed-out financial system. Now, with the regulatory environment tightening, the hidden rot is surfacing.

The problem is not just managerial but also philosophical. Many banks in Bangladesh have failed to recognise that banking is a high-risk business -- especially in emerging markets. Lending money is not just a routine function; it requires robust Credit Risk Management (CRM) frameworks, capable loan appraisals, and vigilant monitoring. Unfortunately, in several banks, especially state-owned ones, risk management has been perfunctory or even non-existent. Even the presence of Board Risk Management Committees (BRMCs), a requirement in many jurisdictions, has been symbolic at best.

The way forward requires a multi-pronged approach.

First, banks must urgently intensify their cash-recovery efforts. The current recovery rate is abysmally low and reflects a lack of seriousness. Legal processes to recover defaulted loans need to be streamlined, special tribunals empowered, and willful defaulters publicly named and penalised.

Second, the regulatory role of the Bangladesh Bank must be strengthened. No more political interference in bank appointments -- especially at the board and managing director levels -- should be tolerated. Independent directors must be made truly independent, and audit committees must be empowered to flag irregularities.

Third, policymakers must realise that the banking sector does not operate in isolation. Global factors -- such as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, fluctuating oil prices, and rising U.S. tariffs -- can all affect trade and investment in Bangladesh. Hence, any national strategy to improve bank performance must be built on macroeconomic foresight and external risk assessment.

Fourth, structural reforms are essential. The government must seriously consider merging weaker banks and recapitalising them, but only after ensuring good governance and accountability. No recapitalisation should be done blindly using taxpayer money without resolving the root causes of inefficiency.

Finally, a broader cultural shift is necessary. The idea that bank loans are grants or political rewards must be shattered. Loan default must carry social stigma and legal consequences. At the same time, good borrowers -- especially SMEs and exporters -- must be incentivised and supported.

Bangladesh's banking sector has reached a critical juncture. The rise in classified loans is not just a financial issue; it is a national crisis. If left unaddressed, it could derail the country's economic ambitions. The interim government must use this window of opportunity to enact meaningful reforms -- reforms that may be difficult but are indispensable. The alternative is continued decay and erosion of public trust in the very institutions that are supposed to safeguard the country's financial health.

As the numbers rise, so must our collective resolve. Bangladesh deserves a banking system that fuels growth -- not one that drowns it.​

The govt. should enforce lifetime jail to bank managers for providing loans by taking bribe.
 

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