[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy
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G Bangladesh Defense

Relevance of a single VAT rate in BD

Md Abdur Rouf

Published :
Apr 10, 2026 23:13
Updated :
Apr 10, 2026 23:13

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Much has been said about value added tax (VAT) reform in Bangladesh, and considerable work has also been undertaken so far. However, the ultimate result is that our tax-GDP ratio remains one of the lowest in the world. This demonstrates that the reform measures were not properly aligned with field-level realities. Having worked in Bangladesh’s VAT management system for more than 30 years, I have come to understand that less important issues are discussed more, and less important initiatives are started. These initiatives neither progress well nor conclude effectively. Introduction of VAT software, Electronic Cash Registrar (ECR), Electronic Fiscal Devise (EFD), policy-implementation separation efforts are the examples. The most crucial step needed in our VAT administration is rarely discussed and scarcely implemented.

The reason is that discussions on VAT reform in Bangladesh are often initiated by donor groups and agencies. Subsequently, some economists, researchers, civil society activists and intellectuals in our country merely echo those discussions. As a result, less important issues come to the forefront, while more critical issues remain overlooked.

One of the most frequently discussed topics about VAT reform in Bangladesh is the introduction of a single VAT rate. Currently, Bangladesh has essentially 10 VAT rates: 15, 10, 7.5, 5, 4.5, 4, 2.4, 2, 1.5, and 0 (per cent). However, 15 per cent VAT is applicable to the majority of VATable economic activities. The other reduced rates have relatively narrow bases. Despite this, there are repeated calls to introduce a single VAT rate—meaning that the reduced rates should be raised to 15 per cent which is considered as a major VAT reform.

In terms of the number of goods and services, most are currently subject to 15 per cent VAT. The Third Schedule of the VAT Act lists goods and services subject to reduced VAT rates. According to the schedule, 5 per cent VAT rate applies at the production stage to goods under only 60 headings and to just 7 services. Seven and half (7.5) per cent VAT rate applies to goods under only 7 headings and to 2 services. No goods at the production stage are now subject to 10 per cent VAT; only 5 services fall under that rate. Fixed VAT applies to goods under 22 headings at the production stage and to 1 service only. Beyond these, hundreds and thousands of goods at import and production stages, as well as other services, are subject to 15 per cent VAT rate. At the trading stage, the application of 15 per cent VAT is left to the seller’s discretion.

From revenue perspective, the major VAT-contributing goods and services are already taxed at 15 per cent. These include cigarettes, gas, pharmaceuticals, petroleum products, bidis, cement, beverages, soap and detergents, telecommunications, banking, leasing, warehousing, insurance, hotels etc. Only three major VAT-contributing services are now subject to reduced rates. Those are construction contractor (10 per cent), procurement provider—commonly known as supplier (10 per cent), and electricity distributor (5 per cent).

An analysis of VAT rates in 142 countries worldwide shows that 70 countries maintain reduced VAT rates. Countries such as Austria, Belgium, Brazil, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden all have reduced VAT rates. Reduced VAT rates are, therefore, a global reality. Economic, social, cultural, and geographical considerations often justify reduced rates. The existence of reduced VAT rates is not inherently problematic, nor does eliminating them automatically solve all issues of VAT management.

In homogeneous economies, a single VAT rate is generally easier to implement. Countries such as Australia, Canada, Denmark, Fiji, Georgia, Israel, Jamaica, South Korea, Lebanon, Mauritius, the Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland, and Taiwan have adopted a single VAT rate.

In contrast, heterogeneous economies often require multiple VAT rates, and implementing a single rate can be challenging. Countries such as Algeria, Brazil, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, France, Finland, India, Ireland, Italy, Mongolia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Tunisia, and Venezuela operate multiple VAT rates. Bangladesh’s economy is not homogeneous; therefore, like many other similar countries, maintaining multiple VAT rates is in conformity with the local realities.

In the United Kingdom, the standard VAT rate is currently 20 per cent. Historically, the UK has tested VAT rates at 15 per cent, 20 per cent, and 25 per cent at different periods. After evaluation of revenue impact, economic stability, and consumer response, policymakers concluded that 20 per cent was the most balanced and beneficial standard rate for the country’s economic structure. The UK also maintains reduced and zero rates for certain goods and services. This demonstrates that VAT rate decisions are context-specific and depend on national economic realities rather than universal formulas.

As mentioned earlier, most goods and services in Bangladesh are already taxed at 15 per cent. Has that solved all problems? Is there no VAT evasion in these sectors? The answer is clear. Problems persist, and VAT evasion remains widespread. Therefore, extending the 15 per cent rate to all remaining goods and services would not resolve systemic issues.

On January 09, 2025, a good number of goods and services attracting reduced rates were brought under 15 per cent rate. So far, we have not heard any report that the presumed objectives have been met.

The core problem is not whether the VAT rate is 15 per cent or less. The fundamental problem in our VAT management system is underreporting of sales. It is difficult to find any business that fully reports its actual sales. If true sale volumes were accurately determined, VAT revenue could multiply even under the existing rates.

Although it may sound surprising, reduced VAT rates sometimes generate more net revenue than the 15 per cent rate. Under the 15 per cent rate, businesses are allowed input tax credit. In practice, they often claim input tax credit amounting to 10–12 per cent, meaning that effectively only 3–5 per cent VAT is paid. Under reduced VAT rates, input tax credit is not allowed. Therefore, businesses pay the full 5 per cent, 7.5 per cent, or 10 per cent directly to government coffer. In many cases, this results in higher effective revenue for the government.

Thus, converting reduced rates to 15 per cent could potentially decrease revenue. Proponents of a uniform 15 per cent rate often cite international best practices. However, international practices require to be adapted to domestic realities. Otherwise, reforms may cause more harm than benefit as is evident in the current performance of our VAT management system.

Another argument is that universal input tax credit would create an ideal VAT system. However, this requires universal issuance of VAT invoices. Without ensuring proper invoicing, implementation of a single VAT rate would likely become another failed reform attempt. Conversely, ensuring proper invoicing under current rates could significantly increase VAT collection.

Regardless of the VAT rate, if all sales were properly recorded, VAT collection in Bangladesh would increase several times. Most sellers do not pay VAT on their actual sales. Discrepancies are often found between the turnover declared in CA audit report and VAT returns. Market observations clearly indicate substantial VAT evasion in our trading and service sectors.

The culture of issuing and demanding VAT invoices has not yet developed in Bangladesh. Therefore, the main focus of VAT reform should be proper recording of sales information through invoice automation. Invoice automation is the most critical step in our VAT reform. Issuing all VATable and non-VATable sales invoices through automated systems and storing data on central servers would create transformative success in our VAT collection. This task is not difficult. What is required is decisive commitment and initiative.

Md. Abdur Rouf is Chairman, Bangladesh VAT Professionals Forum and International VAT Training Institute.​
 

Jul-Jan fiscal deficit narrows 5.0pc

FE REPORT
Published :
Apr 11, 2026 08:36
Updated :
Apr 11, 2026 08:36

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Bangladesh's fiscal deficit narrowed slightly during the first seven months of the current fiscal year compared to the same period a year earlier, although government spending continued to outpace revenue collection.

Data from the Bangladesh Bank shows the deficit stood at Tk 680 billion during July 2025-January 2026, about 5.0-percent lower than the Tk 717 billion recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Government revenue during the period under review totalled Tk 2.69 trillion, including both tax and non-tax receipts, while total expenditure reached Tk 3.37 trillion, resulting in the deficit.

Public spending, however, remained subdued in the development sector.

The implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) - the government's main public investment programme - fell to a nine-year low during the period.

In the first seven months of the 2025-26 fiscal year, ADP implementation reached only 21.18 per cent of the annual allocation, reflecting slower progress in executing development projects.

According to official figures, development expenditure amounted to about Tk 420 billion during July-January, compared with the total ADP allocation of Tk 2.39 trillion for the whole FY26.

People familiar with the development say weak implementation of development projects has become a recurring issue, often linked to bureaucratic delays, slow procurement processes, and limited project readiness at the beginning of the fiscal year.

They, however, say in the coming months, the deficit will be higher, including higher subsidies and fuel payments.

The fiscal gap was financed mainly through domestic sources, particularly borrowing from the banking sector.

The Bangladesh Bank data shows net bank borrowing by the government reached around Tk 730 billion during the period under review.

However, the government also made repayments against earlier borrowings, partly offsetting the overall increase in bank-based financing.

Higher borrowing from the banking sector can help bridge the government's financing needs in the short term, but economists warn that excessive reliance on banks could put pressure on liquidity in the financial system and potentially crowd out private sector credit.

With several months remaining in the fiscal year, the pace of revenue collection and development spending will be closely watched to assess whether the government can maintain fiscal stability while supporting economic growth, which has already been forecast by the World Bank at 3.9 per cent.​
 

Govt plans more loans for higher expenditure
Staff Correspondent 12 April, 2026, 00:19

The newly elected Bangladesh Nationalist Party-led government is planning to expand public expenditure in the next financial year by taking more loans from the local and external sources against the backdrop of the revenue collection shortfall.

Finance ministry officials said that it was imperative for the BNP-led government to place an expansionary national budget to implement election pledges like the introduction of family card, farmer card and health card.

The overall projected costs for the cards are about Tk 50,000 crore in the 2026-27 financial year which will begin on July 1.

The government is also under pressure to implement the new pay scale for the government officials and employees partly, which will require about Tk 25,000 crore.

Besides, more allocations on energy items and fertiliser will be required to absorb price shocks of energy items and fertiliser due to the war in the Gulf destabilising maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

With hundreds of ships stranded in the Gulf because of the closure of the Strait by the Iranian authorities after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, peace talks among the warring parties began in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad on Saturday amid a two-week truce.

Finance ministry officials said that more time would need to normalise the situation, especially the maritime trade through the Strait, accounting for 20 per cent supply of the global fuel oils.

Bangladesh is already feeling pinches from the supply disruption, evident from a huge rush for fuel oil by consumers at the filling stations amid the supply shortage and hoarding.

Finance ministry officials said the less-than-expected revenue collection would force the government to obtain loans worth about Tk 3 lakh crore from the local and foreign sources to meet the next national budget deficit of about 5 per cent of the gross domestic product.

In the current financial year, the projected budget deficit of 3.5 per cent of the GDP of Tk 62,44,578 crore was set by the interim government, the tenure of which ended in March following the February 12 national election.

Besides, the FY26 national budget of Tk 7.9 lakh crore has been aimed at prioritising economic recovery over high growth as it is roughly 1 per cent smaller than the original budget for the FY25.

Of the overall loans, the government is looking to ensure more than Tk 1.2 lakh crore from the foreign sources and the rest — about Tk 1.6 lakh crore — from the local sources.

On April 10, a meeting of the coordination council on budget and macro-economy outlined the provisional targets for the forthcoming financial year, aiming at the overall outlay of over Tk 9 lakh crore for achieving 6.5 per cent GDP growth.

Presided over by finance and planning minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, the online meeting also set the inflation target at 7 per cent.

The country has been grappling with high inflation over recent years, with the rate hitting the double digit in 2023. In March 2026, the point-to-point general inflation eased slightly to 8.71 per cent from 9.13 per cent in February, according to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics data.

On April 9, an update by the General Economics Division of the planning ministry highlighted mounting challenges from energy crisis and persistent inflation, despite some improvement in foreign exchange reserves.

The report warned that the ongoing energy crisis was affecting fiscal balances, external accounts and investment activities.

Amir Khasru, who is expected to place the new national budget in parliament on June 11, is likely to project the revenue income at Tk 6.5 lakh crore. The size of the FY27 annual development programme is likely to be over Tk 3 lakh crore.

For the FY26 budget, the revenue target has been set at Tk 5.64 lakh crore and the revised ADP at Tk 2 lakh crore. The National Board of Revenue has been missing the tax collection targets over the years.​
 

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