[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh

[Bilal9]

This is premature like Pakistan was celebrating the return of Taliban. It never be easy for any coming government in BD to ignore India. Even Pakistan couldn't stop even Indian movies. BD should be ready for face high inflation and economic recession if they try anything silly. Everything will be clear in next few months. No government in BD will afford to go against Indian Interest. Any such attempt will harm BD disproportionatly compared to what may harm to India.

We could actually say the same about failed Indian strategy and actions regarding Bangladesh.

Indian administration under Modi needs to re-cast and re-think their game-plan on how to deal with Bangladesh that clearly did not work for the last fifteen years.

In the last 30 days - since Hasina's ouster and fleeing to Indian territory, 90% of the content in Godi media has been "ahazari, gham, maatam and chest-beating" about "who lost Bangladesh".

Bangladeshis don't really have to do anything as far as "going against Indian interest". Most of us could really care less. India matters little now politically in Bangladesh, and what matters is mostly negative. This is all due to Modi's actions.

Notice most Bangladeshis are not even caring about Indian export embargos to Bangladesh and are busy substituting Indian commodities with imports from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, China etc.?

For all its vaunted fame, RAW completely failed at reading what Bangladeshis were thinking.

It is India which has lost the game on meddling in Bangladesh politics/economy and has to re-think WHAT it has lost and HOW to re-maneuver.

Most political thinkers globally - agree however, that that ship has sailed. India's chances of getting in the good books of Bangladeshis are rather remote now.

Bangladeshi administration may be polite with those of India, but popular opinion-wise, most people do not see Indian govt. positively at this time.

Indian Govt. established relations with a single politician (Hasina) who mostly cared about herself. By controlling her (she was RAW-trained), Indian administration thought that they could control Bangladeshi politics and trade. Indian Govt. cared little about Bangladeshis as a people and their interests.

Let's stop with the Dadagiri bravado about "Bringing Bangladesh back in line" and THINK with a cool head, like many of your politicians are already doing, on where Indian policy (and RAW itself) failed.

India has no leverage with Bangladesh as far as trade. We used to import $45 Billion of goods and services yearly from India, India used to import $2 Billion from us. Who will be the loser now?

Modi cannot do much, really, except opening up dammed flood-waters to flood us, like we saw. Another step in a drama series full of errors.

 

[Bilal9]

New American delegation re-iterates idea on working directly with Bangladesh bypassing Indian interference.

 

[Saif]

New American delegation re-iterates idea on working directly with Bangladesh bypassing Indian interference.

India is powerless. Bangladesh will deal with the USA directly right under India's runny nose.

 

[Saif]

Bangladesh is now India’s potential enemy, Pakistan a declared enemy, China an open enemy

We should stop hailing the bogus ‘people’s revolution’ in Dhaka and think about our own country instead. To celebrate the chaos is the same mistake as those who welcomed Arab Spring.

theprint.in

Bangladesh is now India’s potential enemy, Pakistan a declared enemy, China an open enemy
We should stop hailing the bogus ‘people’s revolution’ in Dhaka and think about our own country instead. To celebrate the chaos is the same mistake as those who welcomed Arab Spring.

File photo of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Indian PM Narendra Modi | Praveen Jain | ThePrint

Five things need to be said about the recent change of regime in Bangladesh. Some have—admittedly—been said before but they are, nevertheless, worth repeating.

One: This is terrible news for India. Whatever her faults, Sheikh Hasina was a good friend to India, a secular person who resisted a growing tide of Islamism.

 It is still not clear what form post-Hasina Bangladesh will take but the portents are far from encouraging. The decision to release the India-baiting Begum Khaleda Zia from jail and the presence of anti-Indian elements among those who may now be in charge do not augur well for India-Bangladesh relations.

Nor does the rise of Islamist movements. In 1971, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman said religion was not enough to hold a nation together. He was talking about Pakistan, of which Bangladesh was then a part, but his words ring true today.


 It may be too hasty to conclude that Bangladesh’s Hindus are all in mortal danger in the post-Hasina scenario and it is irresponsible of politicians and elements of the Indian media to keep repeating that to whip up anti-Muslim sentiment in India. But equally, it is hard to deny that the safety of Bangladesh’s Hindus is a major concern. In 1971 when the Pakistan army unleashed a genocide on what was then East Pakistan, Hindus bore the brunt of the attacks: many millions of them fled to India as refugees.

Today’s protesters have forgotten their history and blanked out that terrible murderous phase, which preceded the creation of Bangladesh. And so, there is always the danger that Islamists will pick on Hindus. They are the softest targets.

Even if this does not happen—and let us pray that such fears are groundless—Bangladesh’s location means that there are strategic consequences for India. In its East Pakistan avatar, the region offered shelter and assistance to anti-India elements and our secessionists. Even after the creation of independent Bangladesh, whenever anti-India regimes have been in power, the border has become a source of danger for India.

Two: It is foolish and naïve of people, especially those on the Left (or what remains of the Left) to rejoice over the ouster of Sheikh Hasina and to celebrate the victory of a so-called ‘peoples movement’. While Sheikh Hasina had become increasingly autocratic in recent years (see below), she was hardly a blood-thirsty tyrant.

To celebrate the chaos on the streets of Dhaka is to make the same mistake that so many liberals made when, in a fit of ignorant and unrealistic optimism, they gleefully welcomed the chaos of the Arab Spring. In many countries, the Arab Spring led to a rise in Islamist feelings, civil war, suffering, a break-down of law and order and military takeovers.

To cheer for people who pull down statues of Sheikh Mujib and set fire to historical buildings is stupidity of the worst kind. Just because people riot and overthrow a government, they are not necessarily heroes. And the end result is rarely a victory for democracy.

India is in a dangerous place

Three: All the statistics will show you how many economic strides Bangladesh has made in the last decade. In many ways, its people are more prosperous than citizens of other countries in the sub-continent. Sheikh Hasina must get at least some credit for this.

But ultimately that was not enough. All too often supporters of dictatorial regimes claim that the average person does not care about democracy or liberal freedoms as long as there is prosperity. Events in Bangladesh remind us that this is utter nonsense.

Economic progress alone is not enough to keep the populace happy. We should have learned that lesson from Iran’s experience in the 1970s. Oil revenues and rising prosperity made no difference; people still revolted against the Shah.

We should also remember another lesson from Iran. When an unpopular and undemocratic ruler is overthrown, it does not always mean that freedom and democracy follow. It is hard to argue that the brutal, medieval regime that replaced the Shah was any improvement on his absolute rule.

So always be sceptical of people who say liberal freedoms don’t matter, only prosperity does.

Four: Shaikh Hasina won an overwhelming victory in the last General Election in Bangladesh for the simplest of reasons: the Opposition boycotted the polls.

 At the time, this seemed like a minor obstacle to her continued progress. After all, went the argument, she had been in charge for so long and the economy had done well so who really cared about the sulking Opposition? In fact, as last week’s events demonstrate, the role of an Opposition is crucial in any democracy.

Any government, intoxicated with its own power and lulled into believing that parliamentary democracy works better when the Opposition is expelled, ignored, arrested or diminished in some way risks the future of parliament democracy itself.

 Even when a government is popular, democracy needs an Opposition to serve as a conduit for the public’s grievances and unfulfilled desires.

Take away the Opposition and you leave the people no choice but to take to the streets. Eventually, it can have the sort of consequences we have just seen in Bangladesh.

Five: South Asia is now a more dangerous place—especially for India and for Indians. Even if you don’t believe the many theories that foreign powers (China, Pakistan or even the US) were behind the turmoil in Dhaka, it is clear that Bangladesh is much less stable than it was just a couple of months ago. And that is dangerous for the whole region.

Consider now, the position of India—Bangladesh is a potential enemy, Pakistan is a declared enemy with a dangerously unstable polity, China is an open enemy which occupies our territory, and Sri Lanka has only just recovered from a major upheaval, which also saw scenes such as ones we have just seen on the streets of Dhaka. And despite India’s attempts to win back our warm relationship with the Maldives (such as inviting the Prime Minister to the swearing-in of our government), there are concerns that the Chinese are increasing their influence in the country.

 In Nepal, Prime Ministers come and go and India has to constantly remain one step ahead of our critics to maintain the relationship.

It is not a happy situation to be in. So perhaps some of us should stop hailing the bogus ‘people’s revolution’ in Dhaka and think about our own country instead. There is a lot to worry about.

Vir Sanghvi is a print and television journalist, and talk show host. Views are personal.​

 

[Krishna with Flute]

We could actually say the same about failed Indian strategy and actions regarding Bangladesh.

Indian administration under Modi needs to re-cast and re-think their game-plan on how to deal with Bangladesh that clearly did not work for the last fifteen years.

In the last 30 days - since Hasina's ouster and fleeing to Indian territory, 90% of the content in Godi media has been "ahazari, gham, maatam and chest-beating" about "who lost Bangladesh".

Bangladeshis don't really have to do anything as far as "going against Indian interest". Most of us could really care less. India matters little now politically in Bangladesh, and what matters is mostly negative. This is all due to Modi's actions.

Notice most Bangladeshis are not even caring about Indian export embargos to Bangladesh and are busy substituting Indian commodities with imports from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, China etc.?

For all its vaunted fame, RAW completely failed at reading what Bangladeshis were thinking.

It is India which has lost the game on meddling in Bangladesh politics/economy and has to re-think WHAT it has lost and HOW to re-maneuver.

Most political thinkers globally - agree however, that that ship has sailed. India's chances of getting in the good books of Bangladeshis are rather remote now.

Bangladeshi administration may be polite with those of India, but popular opinion-wise, most people do not see Indian govt. positively at this time.

Indian Govt. established relations with a single politician (Hasina) who mostly cared about herself. By controlling her (she was RAW-trained), Indian administration thought that they could control Bangladeshi politics and trade. Indian Govt. cared little about Bangladeshis as a people and their interests.

Let's stop with the Dadagiri bravado about "Bringing Bangladesh back in line" and THINK with a cool head, like many of your politicians are already doing, on where Indian policy (and RAW itself) failed.

India has no leverage with Bangladesh as far as trade. We used to import $45 Billion of goods and services yearly from India, India used to import $2 Billion from us. Who will be the loser now?

Modi cannot do much, really, except opening up dammed flood-waters to flood us, like we saw. Another step in a drama series full of errors.

BD has never been so Important nation for India like India is to Bangladesh. Assuming that India's policy towards BD is a total failure (Just for the sake of Argument), it is not going to affect India much looking to the stature of India. Facing Reality is something different from Bravado on Forum. Our Pakistani friends were over enthuse when the regime change happened in Afghanistan. Like what our Bangladeshi friends think and express here, they also used to write that now Indian consulates in Afghanistan shall stop, terrorism from Afghanistan soil will stop etc. What happened thereafter? When BD people will face reality, electricity shortage, food shortage, fall in export etc. their perception will change like the people of Pakistan.

 

[Bilal9]

BD has never been so Important nation for India like India is to Bangladesh. Assuming that India's policy towards BD is a total failure (Just for the sake of Argument), it is not going to affect India much looking to the stature of India. Facing Reality is something different from Bravado on Forum. Our Pakistani friends were over enthuse when the regime change happened in Afghanistan. Like what our Bangladeshi friends think and express here, they also used to write that now Indian consulates in Afghanistan shall stop, terrorism from Afghanistan soil will stop etc. What happened thereafter? When BD people will face reality, electricity shortage, food shortage, fall in export etc. their perception will change like the people of Pakistan.

If Bangladesh is as unimportant to India as you say, then why come over to this section and post?

As incredulous as I am, I am truly curious what you base your doomsday statement about Bangladesh on, other than BJP and Godi propaganda.

As immature it may be, I need to get to the basis of your thinking process (and your logic) so I can gauge your credibility from now going forward.

Some would gather that this is a waste of time, but what the heck, I will take the bait.

Why do you think, Bangladesh will face,

1. electricity shortage,
2. food shortage,
3. fall in export
4. or any other calamity

Answer each point with your SPECIFIC reason. If you can't - then I will figure that your logic is non-existent.

 

[Bilal9]

Bangladesh is now India’s potential enemy, Pakistan a declared enemy, China an open enemy

We should stop hailing the bogus ‘people’s revolution’ in Dhaka and think about our own country instead. To celebrate the chaos is the same mistake as those who welcomed Arab Spring.

theprint.in

Bangladesh is now India’s potential enemy, Pakistan a declared enemy, China an open enemy
We should stop hailing the bogus ‘people’s revolution’ in Dhaka and think about our own country instead. To celebrate the chaos is the same mistake as those who welcomed Arab Spring.

View attachment 8519
File photo of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Indian PM Narendra Modi | Praveen Jain | ThePrint

Five things need to be said about the recent change of regime in Bangladesh. Some have—admittedly—been said before but they are, nevertheless, worth repeating.

One: This is terrible news for India. Whatever her faults, Sheikh Hasina was a good friend to India, a secular person who resisted a growing tide of Islamism.

 It is still not clear what form post-Hasina Bangladesh will take but the portents are far from encouraging. The decision to release the India-baiting Begum Khaleda Zia from jail and the presence of anti-Indian elements among those who may now be in charge do not augur well for India-Bangladesh relations.

Nor does the rise of Islamist movements. In 1971, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman said religion was not enough to hold a nation together. He was talking about Pakistan, of which Bangladesh was then a part, but his words ring true today.


 It may be too hasty to conclude that Bangladesh’s Hindus are all in mortal danger in the post-Hasina scenario and it is irresponsible of politicians and elements of the Indian media to keep repeating that to whip up anti-Muslim sentiment in India. But equally, it is hard to deny that the safety of Bangladesh’s Hindus is a major concern. In 1971 when the Pakistan army unleashed a genocide on what was then East Pakistan, Hindus bore the brunt of the attacks: many millions of them fled to India as refugees.

Today’s protesters have forgotten their history and blanked out that terrible murderous phase, which preceded the creation of Bangladesh. And so, there is always the danger that Islamists will pick on Hindus. They are the softest targets.

Even if this does not happen—and let us pray that such fears are groundless—Bangladesh’s location means that there are strategic consequences for India. In its East Pakistan avatar, the region offered shelter and assistance to anti-India elements and our secessionists. Even after the creation of independent Bangladesh, whenever anti-India regimes have been in power, the border has become a source of danger for India.

Two: It is foolish and naïve of people, especially those on the Left (or what remains of the Left) to rejoice over the ouster of Sheikh Hasina and to celebrate the victory of a so-called ‘peoples movement’. While Sheikh Hasina had become increasingly autocratic in recent years (see below), she was hardly a blood-thirsty tyrant.

To celebrate the chaos on the streets of Dhaka is to make the same mistake that so many liberals made when, in a fit of ignorant and unrealistic optimism, they gleefully welcomed the chaos of the Arab Spring. In many countries, the Arab Spring led to a rise in Islamist feelings, civil war, suffering, a break-down of law and order and military takeovers.

To cheer for people who pull down statues of Sheikh Mujib and set fire to historical buildings is stupidity of the worst kind. Just because people riot and overthrow a government, they are not necessarily heroes. And the end result is rarely a victory for democracy.

India is in a dangerous place

Three: All the statistics will show you how many economic strides Bangladesh has made in the last decade. In many ways, its people are more prosperous than citizens of other countries in the sub-continent. Sheikh Hasina must get at least some credit for this.

But ultimately that was not enough. All too often supporters of dictatorial regimes claim that the average person does not care about democracy or liberal freedoms as long as there is prosperity. Events in Bangladesh remind us that this is utter nonsense.

Economic progress alone is not enough to keep the populace happy. We should have learned that lesson from Iran’s experience in the 1970s. Oil revenues and rising prosperity made no difference; people still revolted against the Shah.

We should also remember another lesson from Iran. When an unpopular and undemocratic ruler is overthrown, it does not always mean that freedom and democracy follow. It is hard to argue that the brutal, medieval regime that replaced the Shah was any improvement on his absolute rule.

So always be sceptical of people who say liberal freedoms don’t matter, only prosperity does.

Four: Shaikh Hasina won an overwhelming victory in the last General Election in Bangladesh for the simplest of reasons: the Opposition boycotted the polls.

 At the time, this seemed like a minor obstacle to her continued progress. After all, went the argument, she had been in charge for so long and the economy had done well so who really cared about the sulking Opposition? In fact, as last week’s events demonstrate, the role of an Opposition is crucial in any democracy.

Any government, intoxicated with its own power and lulled into believing that parliamentary democracy works better when the Opposition is expelled, ignored, arrested or diminished in some way risks the future of parliament democracy itself.

 Even when a government is popular, democracy needs an Opposition to serve as a conduit for the public’s grievances and unfulfilled desires.

Take away the Opposition and you leave the people no choice but to take to the streets. Eventually, it can have the sort of consequences we have just seen in Bangladesh.

Five: South Asia is now a more dangerous place—especially for India and for Indians. Even if you don’t believe the many theories that foreign powers (China, Pakistan or even the US) were behind the turmoil in Dhaka, it is clear that Bangladesh is much less stable than it was just a couple of months ago. And that is dangerous for the whole region.

Consider now, the position of India—Bangladesh is a potential enemy, Pakistan is a declared enemy with a dangerously unstable polity, China is an open enemy which occupies our territory, and Sri Lanka has only just recovered from a major upheaval, which also saw scenes such as ones we have just seen on the streets of Dhaka. And despite India’s attempts to win back our warm relationship with the Maldives (such as inviting the Prime Minister to the swearing-in of our government), there are concerns that the Chinese are increasing their influence in the country.

 In Nepal, Prime Ministers come and go and India has to constantly remain one step ahead of our critics to maintain the relationship.

It is not a happy situation to be in. So perhaps some of us should stop hailing the bogus ‘people’s revolution’ in Dhaka and think about our own country instead. There is a lot to worry about.

Vir Sanghvi is a print and television journalist, and talk show host. Views are personal.​

Another Gobar Bhakt with heartburn - playing the favorite of all cards to Indians, the "Hindu Victim" card.

They should heed the social media posts of Bangladeshi Hindus, who have said that they would not try to go over to India "even to use the loo". I have seen these types of posts myself. The more polite Bangladeshi Gen-Z Hindus have openly proclaimed that they refuse to be used as geo-political pawns by Indians.

A little harsh may be to judge bhakts like this, but seems to be they are just crying over spilt milk. This bhakt should stop worrying about "stability" in Bangladesh, and worry more about "stability" in Manipur. Apna ghar samhalo bhai.

 

[Saif]

India wants to keep ties with Bangladesh stable

Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar on Tuesday said the political churn in Bangladesh is that country’s ‘internal matter’ but India is keen to continue what was...

www.newagebd.net

India wants to keep ties with Bangladesh stable
United News of Bangladesh . Dhaka 17 September, 2024, 17:36

Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar. | UNB photo

Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar on Tuesday said the political churn in Bangladesh is that country’s ‘internal matter’ but India is keen to continue what was a stable relationship.

In an interview with NDTV, Jaishankar underlined the maxim that neighbouring nations are ‘dependent on each other’.

He touched on Russia’s war on Ukraine and Delhi’s potential peacemaker role in that conflict, as well as Iran leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s remark, the war in Gaza, and a flurry of foreign visits in the first 100 days of prime minister Narendra Modi’s third term.

‘What happens is their internal matter. Bangladesh is our neighbour and the relationship, on our part, is something we want to keep stable. We have good trade... our people-to-people ties are good... I want to keep the relationship that way,’ Jaishankar said on the Bangladesh ‘crisis’.

Bangladesh experienced civil disobedience and violence - the result of a student-led movement against quota in government jobs - that forced then prime minister Sheikh Hasina to resign. Hasina fled Dhaka in a military aircraft to land at an Indian Air Force base near Uttar Pradesh’s Ghaziabad.

She was expected to proceed to London to claim political asylum but British home office sources told NDTV its rules do not allow people to travel to that country to seek asylum or temporary refuge.

For now, Hasina is believed to be in the custody of Indian intelligence agencies.

Last month Jaishankar told Parliament Hasina’s office had requested permission to flee Dhaka for Delhi ‘at very short notice’.

At an all-party briefing he said the Indian government was prepared to give Hasina time to decide on her next steps, which could include political retirement.

Last week Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus - who leads an interim government - said his country too wants to maintain its previous good relationship with India, but that these ties should reflect ‘fairness and equality’. Yunus said he had received a congratulatory phone call from prime minister Modi.

‘We want the world to recognise Bangladesh as a respected democracy,’ the 84-year-old said in his address to his nation.

For Hasina, the chief advisor had stern warning, demanding she must remain silent to prevent compromising the two countries’ relationship till her extradition is sought, according to NDTV. ‘If India wants to keep her till Bangladesh wants her back, the condition would be that she has to keep quiet,’ he said.​