[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh

[Bilal9]

[H3]India can’t take Bangladesh for granted anymore[/H3]
In the next three to six months, how India will deal with Bangladesh will become clear

I think three critical factors probably contributed to what Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said. First, he wanted to address the domestic constituency and assure the Indian people. It was pretty clear from what he mentioned in his speech, "We have to deal with the unexpected." From the word "unexpected," it became clear that he mainly meant the changes in Bangladesh, which have been seen as major setbacks for India by its media and as some Indian policymakers have indicated after August 5. I think India needed to assure the domestic constituency, "Look, it was unexpected, but we are looking into it," "We are monitoring the situation, we know what is happening," etc. I am sure much of India must have been thoroughly shocked, given that for the last decade or so, it had been saying that it had the best relationship with Bangladesh. Now, there is a missing point: India's relationship was not with the people of Bangladesh; it was with a particular political party or group. And that has failed. I am sure they have now understood that it is far better to have a relationship with the people than with a particular group of people or political party.

Read more
[H4]Why can’t India accept that the people of Bangladesh toppled Sheikh Hasina?[/H4]
The second point is that we are now in a multipolar world where India wants to acquire its position as one of the major powers. Its economy has already surpassed the UK and France in terms of volume. So, from that point of view, India also wanted to alert the US. Because the general narrative in India has been that the US was behind the uprising in Bangladesh, the defence minister also wanted to alert China at the same time. He tried to tell them that although changes have occurred in Bangladesh, India is prepared if anything happens. It has particularly alerted the US because India is involved with that country in many areas, including on the Indo-Pacific issue. But at the same time, India has increasingly shown that its foreign policy has to be The India Way (as per the title of the book of S Jaishankar). There's a bit of consensus on that in India. While it has maintained a relationship with Russia despite the sanctions, it also has a relationship with China, particularly when it comes to BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and Myanmar. I think that was addressed in some way through this particular statement by the Indian defence minister.

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[H4]Regime change in Bangladesh: The fallout for India[/H4]
The third factor is not to take Bangladesh for granted, as was done during the Awami League rule. So, I think that message has been put forward to the Indian hierarchies and the stakeholders. It is pretty straightforward because our chief adviser has pointed out a couple of things regarding Teesta water-sharing, border killing, reviving SAARC, and several other issues. Earlier, he also made a particular statement about the northeast. So, I think what the Indian defence minister wanted to say is that it is not going to be what it used to be in the last decade or so, when the Awami League was not a headache for them. Also, it wants to deal with Bangladesh's new regime.

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[H4]India needs to pursue equal partnership with Bangladesh[/H4]
While these three factors are important, the ball is now in India's court. It's now up to them how they will deal with Bangladesh. But it's too early. In the next three to six months, how India will deal with Bangladesh will become clear. If there is a meeting between the Bangladesh chief adviser and the Indian prime minister at the United Nations in New York, that could give us an indication of what kind of changes will come. But no doubt New Delhi is quite sure that this is a different regime from the Awami League one. So, they will have to deal with it accordingly.

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Dr Imtiaz Ahmed is former professor of international relations at the University of Dhaka.

 

[Bilal9]

[H3]India is failing to understand Bangladesh’s new reality[/H3]

The statement by Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh calling upon the Indian military leadership to analyze the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Bangladesh has caused confusion and concern in Dhaka. It is crucial for India to clarify the meaning behind this statement, given its official status. The comparison with Ukraine—which is facing invasion and war with Russia—and Gaza—which has been destroyed by Israel's brutal military campaign that has killed over 40,000 people since October 7, 2023—are quite intriguing, extreme, and certainly not appropriate.

For the past month, there has been a pressing need for India to recognise that a people's revolution, now being referred to as the "Monsoon Revolution," has taken place in Bangladesh. And the two countries now need to recalibrate their relationship, rebuilding it based on mutual respect, which has not yet been achieved—nor has there been any clear indication that it will be.

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As Bangladesh works to rebuild after the Monsoon Revolution, we need our neighbours and friends to stand with us. Statements like that of the Indian defence minister will vitiate the tense atmosphere and are not conducive to fostering a constructive relationship between Bangladesh and India. The Bangladesh foreign ministry should seek an urgent clarification as to what this statement means.

Read more
[H4]The Bangladesh-India friendship dilemma[/H4]
It is equally important for New Delhi to understand that a people's revolution has occurred in Bangladesh—people have toppled an autocratic and despotic order. And that this revolution represents the aspirations of all Bangladeshis (from all religions and walks of life) for a just and equitable society.

New Delhi also needs to accept and address the perception that its relationship with Bangladesh was previously centred on a single individual and political party, rather than being a broad-based relationship. In light of this, we also need to take into account the recent killing of Swarna Das by India's Border Security Force (BSF). Incidents like this are unacceptable, but they continue to remain unaddressed. So, there is an urgent need to recast this relationship, making it broad-based, constructive, and grounded in mutual respect.

I have said this before and will say it again: New Delhi needs to recognise the new order which has emerged in Bangladesh and send a special envoy to send a clear and unequivocal signal that it is ready to work with our new interim government, especially after the defence minister's statement, which risks fuelling tensions between these two South Asian nations. India also needs to work with all the stakeholders in Bangladesh and build a relationship between the two republics, rather than with just one political party or leader.

Moreover, New Delhi needs to understand that this revolution was driven by the Bangladeshi youth—the Gen Z. And so, understanding the perspectives, dreams, and aspirations of the next generation of Bangladeshis is critical for fostering sustainable, long-term relations. Their views about the Bangladesh-India relationship are very different from those of the previous generations, and Indian policymakers should also take this into account.

Read more
[H4]Why can’t India accept that the people of Bangladesh toppled Sheikh Hasina?[/H4]
From Bangladesh's side, there is an urgent need to revamp its diplomatic presence in New Delhi. I believe the true message of the post-Monsoon Revolution order in Bangladesh is not being appropriately communicated. We need to think outside the box, as traditional approaches won't cut it anymore. Moving forward, we need to build a future-oriented, forward-thinking agenda.

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Shafqat Munir is senior research fellow at Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS). He can be reached at shafqat@bipss.org.bd.

 

[Bilal9]

[h3]'More surprised than worried' at Delhi's war preparations: Foreign Adviser[/h3]
"I don't think there is any chance of us having a war with India."

Foreign Adviser. Touhid Hossain. Photo: Collected

The foreign advisor of the interim government. Tauhid Hussain said he was 'surprised' by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh's statement on war preparations.

He told reporters at the regular press briefing on Sunday afternoon, 'I am more surprised than why he said such things.'

In his speech on the last day of the Joint Commanders' Conference in Lucknow, India on September 5, Rajnath said that the armed forces of peace-loving India must be ready for war to maintain peace.

Rajnath asked the country's top military leadership to analyze the current situation in Bangladesh and the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts to assess what kind of problems India might face in the future and be ready for anything 'unexpected'.

When asked about this, the foreign adviser said, 'I can't find any reason why he made such a comment.'

He said, 'I don't think there is any possibility of war with India. We have to understand whether he said this for the consumption of his own country or not. And the way he said it, it's a lot of beating around the bush.'

'Because I don't see any need for India to prepare because of Ukraine war. Or what India has to do with what is happening with Hamas! How Bangladesh compares with the Ukraine and Hamas issues is also beyond my understanding,' he added.

Regarding giving political asylum to Sheikh Hasina, he said, 'Political asylum can be given to anyone by any country. Whether it should be given or not, in this case it is a matter to be seen.

Noting that they are not willing to give shelter to even one Rohingya, he said, still we know that something is going in. We are trying to prevent it as much as possible. BGB is pushing back every day. Capacity also has some limitations. But we are trying to give back as much as we can.'

 

[Bilal9]

 

[Saif]

India plays politics of dominance with neighbours, says BNP

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party on Monday said that India’s relations with neighbouring countries were not going well and one of the main reasons for this was that India has always played...

www.newagebd.net

India plays politics of dominance with neighbours, says BNP
Staff Correspondent 10 September, 2024, 00:11

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party on Monday said that India’s relations with neighbouring countries were not going well and one of the main reasons for this was that India has always played the politics of dominance with its neighbours.

‘This tendency of dominance will neither be good for them not for the neighbours. Relationships need to be built on the basis of respect, dignity and mutual interests,’ said the party’s secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir while talking to reporters after visiting the grave of party founder Ziaur Rahman in the capital, marking the 46th founding anniversary of Jatiyatabadi Mahila Dal.

‘India understands better the reasons for its politics and behaviour towards its neighbouring countries,’ he said, adding that his party believed that India’s relationships with Bangladesh should be built on mutual respect, dignity, and shared interests.

According to Indian media reports, defence minister Rajnath Singh emphasised the need for India’s armed forces to be ready for war to maintain peace.

Fakhrul said that Bangladesh gained freedom from the hands of the fascist Awami regime after almost 16 years through a student-led mass uprising.

He mentioned that many students, as well as women and children, sacrificed their lives in this revolution.

Mirza Fakhrul emphasised that no one could deny the contribution of women in this movement to restore democracy.

‘On this day, we’ve taken an oath to continue our struggle to consolidate the freedom that has been achieved, restore democracy, and establish the rule of law and the rule of the people in the country,’ he said.

He also expressed hope that the interim government would hand over power to the people through an election after completing the necessary state reforms as soon as possible.

In response to a question, the party’s secretary general said that he met with the interim government’s chief adviser twice and requested him to present the reform proposals to the public and set a timeline so that the national election could be held in a specific and reasonable timeframe.

Party standing committee members Selima Rahman and AZM Zahid Hossain, Mohila Dal president Afroza Abbas, general secretary Sultana Ahmed, and joint general secretary Helen Zerin Khan, among others, were present at the programme.​

 

[Saif]

BJP accused Congress of making India another Bangladesh.

ভারতকে বাংলাদেশে পরিণত করার ষড়যন্ত্র চলছে, কেন্দ্রীয় মন্ত্রীর হুঁশিয়ারি

 

[Vsdoc]

Regardless of political affiliations, Congress or BJP, India is essentially a 1.4 billion strong Hindu country.

Hence there will naturally be heightened tensions in India if Hindus are being killed in Bangladesh, which is essentially a Muslim country.

Its not very complicated.

These heightened tensions are currently on slow boil. But it will not take much to spark a population wide uproar if the killings do not stop.

In which case, regardless of the government at the center, centrist or right wing Hindu, the deep state will swing into action.

Hope things do not come to that and Bangladesh moves back from where it is now on the brink of frank radical Islamism riding piggy back on the "revolution".