[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh

[Saif]

Source : https://www.PKDefense.com

Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh​

By Saif​

The independence movement under the leadership of Congress was for establishing undivided independent India through the eviction of British rulers from the soil of India, but the degeneration of Hindu-Muslim relations into hostility and the subsequent demand of Muslim league for a separate state for the Muslims of the region thwarted the dream of an undivided independent India and made the partition of subcontinent inevitable. While the initial proposal for the partition met with steep resistance as most of the senior leaders of Congress namely, Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, and Maulana Abul Kalam Azad vehemently protested such proposal and termed it as British conspiracy to divide India, the Congress finally gave its nod of approval in the fear that outright rejection of the partition proposal might be used by the British colonial rulers against the independence movement to perpetuate their political domination over the country and in the hope that with a small resource base, peculiar geographic reality that separates both the wings of the country by one thousand miles, and paucity of leaders with high political experience, Pakistan would not survive too long and would reunite with India in the end.

There is no surprise that partition of India came as a shock to Congress leaders and that they could never reconcile themselves to the idea of an independent Pakistan because their freedom struggle was for undivided India, and therefore they wanted to roll back the geographical changes made to Indian subcontinent through partition and their intention was clearly demonstrated to Pakistan from the very beginning, which gave rise to a plethora of problems and a paucity of trust between the two nations.

What Pakistan needed in those formative years was national unity and balanced development in the two wings to ensure security and progress to consolidate its position as a powerful nation in the subcontinent and to thwart Indian attempt to undo the geographical arrangements after partition. But the then Pakistani leaders' myopic failure to recognize Bengalis as equal partners and unforgivable reluctance to give them due share of political power and economic opportunity caused widespread resentment among the East Pakistanis, which was cunningly used by India against Pakistan in the subsequent years. The Indian political leaders in later years used their diplomatic channels and intelligence agencies to cultivate close relations with East Pakistani political establishment in order to involve themselves in almost all political movements in East Pakistan to use the prevailing sense of deprivation among East Pakistanis to their own political advantage and to instigate East Pakistanis against West Pakistanis to accelerate

the process of disintegration of Pakistan firstly, to weaken it, and secondly, to bring it back to India's lap through various political machinations to realize the dream of undivided India.

No amount of political negotiations between the two wings could improve the situation in East Pakistan due, mainly, to the stubbornness of West Pakistanis, which gave rise to increasing sense of alienation and deprivation among the people of East Pakistan, and finally when Sheikh Mujib was denied the premiership in 1970, Bengalis decided to get out of the relationship once and for all. So, for the first time and certainly for the last time in history, the disintegration of Pakistan became a common goal for both India and Bengalis of East Pakistan as the former wanted to break Pakistan to realize its vision of undivided India and the latter wanted to establish a separate independent nation to rid themselves of an insensitive and repressive political regime.

 

[Saif]

Evolution of Indian Strategic Goal

The Indian strategic goal underwent a gradual evolution since the independence of Bangladesh. The primary motivations for India to get involved in the liberation war of Bangladesh was the break-up of Pakistan and the emergence of a friendly but weak Bangladesh for the security of its North-East region. But aggressive endeavors were also conducted to gradually lure Bangladesh into a trap to make her India-locked strategically. This section will discuss:

• Specific Indian actions to help in the liberation war
• Indian motivations and seven point agreement
• 25 year friendship treaty and its impact

Steps Taken By The Indira Govt. To Help In The Liberation War


As soon as the Pakistani army cracked down on unarmed East Pakistanis, India, under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, took bold steps to help the Bengalis in their just struggle for independence against the fascist regime of Yahya Khan. The Indira government set the following objectives to ensure a desired outcome in the war for both Indians and East Pakistanis:

1. To give safe passage to top Awami League leaders to India and to help form the Mujibnagar government
2. To help form Mukti Bahini and to provide necessary training and weapons
3. To form Mujib Bahini as an alternative force and to use them in special operations
4. To provide asylum to refugees from East Pakistan
5. To launch a vigorous diplomatic campaign worldwide through its foreign services to garner support for East Pakistan's just struggle for freedom
6. To use its military and intelligence resources to the extent possible to help the freedom fighters sustain a prolonged war against the powerful Pakistan army

India Never Lost Sight of Its Strategic Goal

Some people may argue that India's decision to help in 1971 was based purely on humanitarian grounds, but the reality is that India's decision to extend its wholehearted support to Bangladesh's liberation war was a premeditated one and was primarily based on its own strategic goal of disintegrating Pakistan to undo the changes made through partition. Former Indian foreign secretary Mr. Dixit said, "We helped in the liberation of Bangladesh in mutual interest, it was not a favor”, and a senior RAW intelligence officer said, "Bangladesh was the result of a 10 year long promotion of dissatisfaction against the rulers of Pakistan”. These statements from two former top Indian government officials are testaments to the fact that Indian help for Bangladesh was not an altruistic one, but rather a carefully planned strategic maneuver to disintegrate Pakistan and that the intelligence agencies of India were engaged in fomenting unrest in East Pakistan long before 1971. With their strategic goal in mind, India concluded a seven point agreement with Mujibnagar government to seal the fate of a negotiated settlement between East and West Pakistan, to cripple Bangladesh by depriving it of its sovereign right to raise a standing army, and to strip Bangladesh of her power to independently formulate foreign policy. Now, for the benefit of the readers let me briefly describe the points of the 'seven point agreement':

1. Bangladesh government will select only those people for administrative posts who have actively participated in the liberation war and any shortfall therein will be filled by the Indian government officials.
2. A joint force will be formed comprising of the Indian army and the Mukti Bahini and this force will be placed under the command of the chief of staff of the Indian army who will lead the liberation war.
3. Bangladesh will have no standing army.
4. India will help raise a paramilitary force to protect internal law and order of the country.
5. Open market will be the basis for trade relation between the two nations and this arrangement will be subject to periodical reviews.
6. The Indian army will be stationed in Bangladesh for an indefinite period of time, but the time frame for their gradual withdrawal will be determined through annual meetings between the two governments.
7. Bangladesh will formulate her foreign policy only in consultation with India.

The conclusion of the seven point agreement only ensured that the Mujibnagar government would continue the war until Bangladesh gained full independence from Pakistan, but it did not give the guarantee that China and America would not interfere in the event the Indian army directly intervened in East Pakistan. So, the Indira government approached the former Soviet Union for a security guarantee against impending Chinese and American threats, and it was made available to them in the shape of '25 year friendship treaty' by the erstwhile Soviet Union, which was also seeking to play a substantial role in the subcontinent to expand its own sphere of influence.

The signing of the seven point agreement with Mujib Government and the 25 year friendship treaty with the Soviets removed all obstacles for the Indian forces to directly intervene in East Pakistan, and it took them less than two weeks to overrun the defensive positions of the Pakistan army, which was already exhausted by a nine month long guerrilla war against Mukti Bahini and was at the final stages of disintegration and collapse. At the end of the war, Bangladesh got her much cherished independence and India could break Pakistan into two pieces for which it had been scheming since 1947.

 

[Saif]

Bangladesh Steps Into A Strategic Trap

While the public of Bangladesh, in general, and the Mujib government, in particular, were extremely grateful to India for its help and support in the war of liberation and wanted to maintain the best possible relationship with the Indian people, the Indians were not complacent with friendship from 'ex-East Pakistanis' and were making their own strategic plans in line with the seven point agreement to reduce Bangladesh's relevance as an independent nation through limiting her power to formulate national policies so as to protect their long term strategic interest in North-East India. A strategic trap was set for Bangladesh in the form of '25 year friendship treaty' which took away most, if not all, options for Bangladesh to independently establish foreign, defense, and economic relations with other nations in the world. I would like to briefly mention a few clauses of the '25 year friendship treaty' that had deleterious effects on our foreign, defense, and economic interests:

Article 4: Both the nations will hold regular meetings with each other at all levels to discuss major international issues for mutual benefits.​

Article 5: Both the nations will cooperate with each other in the field of trade, transport, and communications on the basis of equality, mutual benefit, and the most favored nation principle.​

Article 8: None of the nations will ever enter into a military alliance against each other and will refrain from allowing a third party from using their soil for military purposes that could constitute a threat to national security for either of the nations.​

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Article 9: Both the nations will refrain from providing any assistance to a third party taking part in an armed conflict against either of the nations to ensure regional peace and security.​

Article 10: Neither of the parties will undertake any commitment, secret or open, toward one or more states, which may violate the spirit of the treaty.​

Article 4 practically eliminated Bangladesh's power to devise an independent foreign policy and made it compulsory for Bangladesh to consult India about any major foreign policy matter.

Article 5 created an unequal economic relation between the two nations because contrary to India, Bangladesh, being a smaller economy, was unable to avail itself of the opportunities of most favored nation status.

Article 8 ensured that if there was a military conflict between Bangladesh and India, Bangladesh, as a weaker power, could not seek help from outside world to protect her territorial integrity.

Article 9 greatly diminished Bangladesh's own security by making her a party to the Indian strategic plan for the North-East and by putting her on a collision course with the insurgents who had nothing against Bangladesh and in fact were a great help in the liberation war, but India itself broke the sanctity of this clause by providing military and political assistance to Shanti Bahini in Chittagong Hill Tracts.

Article 10 restricted Bangladesh's power to sign a defense deal with a third party to improve her armed forces.

By dint of this treaty India was able to diminish Bangladesh's power to protect herself and her right to establish political and economic relations with other nations independently, and consequently became the de-facto power over Bangladesh to whom the new born country had to depend for her security and economic development only to lose her relevance as a sovereign nation.

 

[Saif]

Strategic Importance of Bangladesh

Notwithstanding her small geographical size, Bangladesh does have certain strategic advantages that make her important to regional and extra regional powers which may draw her into a complex geopolitical scenario of big power rivalry. Bangladesh being the land-bridge between South and South-East Asia, and between East and North-East India provides the most cost-effective and the safest way for inter-regional and intra-regional connectivity. Describing the strategic importance of Bangladesh in relation to India, a renowned security analyst Mr. C. Raja Mohan, said “Relations with Bangladesh are too important to be left to traditional ways of doing diplomatic business. Bangladesh is one of the few Islamic nations of the world where a fragile democracy is taking root; it is a large market for Indian goods and has a huge bearing on India's security and development challenges in the North East." Now, Bangladesh may be seen as a key player in strategic game plan of the U.S.A., China, India, and Pakistan because of the following reasons:

1. Bridge between East and North-East India: The unique geographical location of Bangladesh which cuts the troubled North East region of India off from the mainland constitutes a significant security weak point for India for the fact that the region shares border with China and that various insurgent groups are active within the region who are fighting against the Indian government for self determination. In light of their experience in Indo-China war in 1962, the Indian defense planners consider the 'strategic chicken neck' to be inadequate and see Bangladesh as the safest and the shortest route to transport military logistics to North-East region in case of a future military conflict with China. A strategic corridor through Bangladesh is also seen as important to conduct sustained military campaign against the insurgents in North East. The corridor through Bangladesh has economic significance as well because it is the most cost effective route to connect North-East to the rest of India for transshipment of industrial goods to improve the economic condition of this land-locked region. Describing the economic significance of a corridor through Bangladesh for India, Mr. G. Srinivasan said, “The road route between East India and Northeast India through Bangladesh reduces transport distance by more than 60 per cent in comparison to the current route around Bangladesh through Siliguri”
2. Bridge between SAARC and ASEAN: Bangladesh which is the land-bridge between SAARC and ASEAN has enormous geographical advantage for her proximity to Myanmar and other South-East Asian nations to promote inter- regional economic, political, and security cooperation. Once connected via Asian Highway (AH-41) and Trans-Asian Railway, Bangladesh will be the main transit point for inter-regional economic interactions amongst South and South-East Asian nations. Bangladesh with appropriate policies and infrastructures in place will be playing a pivotal role in defining the direction of economic relations between these two emerging regional groups.
3. Gateway to Bay of Bengal: Bangladesh is considered the gateway to Bay of Bengal with her 45000 sq. miles of sea territory in which lies valuable marine resources such as hydrocarbon, fisheries etc. Her well developed sea ports are of enormous importance because India can use these port facilities to increase trade with its landlocked North-East region while other South and South East Asian countries and China can use them to increase intra-regional and inter-regional economic cooperation. The Chinese navy is also making rapid progress in developing naval relations with coastal nations such as Myanmar and Bangladesh to gain access to their port facilities so as to conduct sustained naval operations in the sea to control the oil transshipment and trade routes in the Indian Ocean. In light of the recently concluded Indo-U.S. Strategic agreement, it is understood that any Chinese naval presence in the Bay of Bengal may be construed as strategic interference in South Asia, and the U.S.A and India may act to prevent Bangladesh from allowing any permanent naval base facilities to China. Therefore, Bangladesh is considered a country of enormous strategic maritime importance for major powers to establish strategic control over South Asia.
4. Energy security: Because of its burgeoning population, high economic growth rate, and rapid industrialization, India has become the sixth largest energy consumer in the world, but it has to import oil to meet 70% of its domestic demand which cost 40% of its total export earnings. It has to diversify import source for uninterrupted supply of energy, but due to international politics importing hydrocarbon from Iran and Venezuela has become uncertain leaving Bangladesh and Myanmar as only cheap and secure sources of energy supply. While Bangladesh has a speculative gas reserve of 33 TCF, her proven reserve is only 12 -15 TCF which is inadequate to meet her own domestic demand so the government has already decided against exporting gas to other countries unless new reserves are found. Even though Bangladesh has expressed her inability to export gas at the moment, India considers Bangladesh a major source of energy in the long run because of her potentials to discover huge hydrocarbon reserves in the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh also is the most cost effective route for India to import gas from Myanmar, and therefore Bangladesh may emerge as a significant player in regional strategic energy game.
5. Balance of power: Bangladesh is significant because of the complex strategic scenario that has emerged due to India's strategic alliance with the U.S.A to contain China and its rivalry with Pakistan for regional supremacy. India has to take cognizance of the fact that Bangladesh has established deep military relations with China and has somewhat repaired her fractured relations with Pakistan to correct the problem in balance of power situation with India. So, the possible military role of Bangladesh in case of a war either between India and China or between India and Pakistan could be a strategic concern for India.

 

[Saif]

Indian strategic plan to dominate Bangladesh

In light of Bangladesh's endeavors to take control of her own affairs and her attempts to seek greater independence in foreign policy matters, India formulated a detailed strategic plan to deny Bangladesh a fair opportunity to

build capacity commensurate with her strategic importance and national strength to reduce India's strategic vulnerabilities and to keep Bangladesh within its own sphere of influence as part of its greater regional game plan. In this section we will discuss what goals and objectives India is pursuing and the strategies they have put in place to achieve them.

Strategic Goals

1. To reduce strategic and economic vulnerabilities of North-East India through improving connectivity and accessibility, and through gaining access to the Sea.
2. To diminish strategic advantage of Bangladesh and to gain disproportionate influence on Bangladesh's national policies in general, and foreign, defense, and economic policies in particular.

Strategic objectives

1. To obtain unrestricted transit facilities to transport goods, industrial or military, to and from North-East India and to obtain perpetual rights to use Chittagong sea port.
2. To stop Bangladesh from marching toward the East to confine her within Indian sphere of influence and to reduce Bangladesh's options for integrating her economy with other emerging economies in adjacent regions in order to restrict growth potentials.
3. To extend political help and support to promote friendly elements in domestic politics in order to extract undue favors and privileges from Bangladesh.
4. To deter and discourage Bangladesh from seeking outside help to resolve outstanding issues so as to impose bilateral-ism to negotiate from the position of strength.

 

[Saif]

Strategies

India devised the following set of strategies to isolate, intimidate, and coerce Bangladesh to submit to Indian domination to reap the benefit of breaking Pakistan:

1. Strategy of intimidation and application of force: The aggressive posture of its border security forces along 4096 km. Indo-Bangla border and its deployment of navy near a disputed Island named South Talpatty in the Bay of Bengal in the early 80s to erect illegal structures are signs that in case Bangladesh fails to accommodate Indian unjust demands causing further deterioration in bilateral relations, India will not hesitate to intimidate and use military power against Bangladesh. Mr. Harun ur Rashid, an ex foreign secretary of Bangladesh, described the episode of illegal occupation of South Talpatty by India as, “While bilateral discussions were pending to resolve the dispute, on May 9, 1981, India sent an armed ship "INS Sandhayak" with one helicopter and some military personnel to the island. Some huts, tents, one aerial mast and one pole bearing the Indian flag were seen erected there. Bangladesh was taken by surprise at India's aggressive mood to claim the island. Bangladesh on 11 May 1981 lodged a strong protest against such unwarranted, unilateral and illegal action of India that was in breach of the agreements reached at the highest political level.”
2. Strategy of supporting secessionist movements in Bangladesh: Chittagong Hill Tracts, which is one tenth of the total size of the country, with its enormous natural resources and strategic geographical location is vital for the existence of Bangladesh. Taking advantage of Chittagong Hill Tracts geographical proximity to India's Tripura state and making full use of discontent of the local Tribal people, India sponsored the worst kind of organized terrorism in the Chittagong Hill Tracts to dismember Bangladesh. The surreptitious Indian involvement in providing money and weapons to tribal insurgents in the Chittagong Hill Tracts since 1976 was acknowledged by Bimal Chakma—a Shanti Bahini official-- in an interview with 'The New York Times' on June 11, 1989. India used the insurgents against Bangladesh as a tool to gain political concessions which it would not otherwise be able to extract from the government of Bangladesh. Finally, Bangladesh entered into a peace agreement with Shanti Bahini in 1997 to end insurgency and to restore law and order in Chittagong Hill Tracts, but the security and intelligence agencies of the country are still convinced that a lot of ex-Shanti Bahini members and other terrorists like Kuki Chin are still getting help from Indian security agencies and are hiding in the North East states of India.
3. Strategy of using Bangladesh to alleviate challenges in the North-East: Because of India's step motherly attitude towards its land-locked North-Eastern states, a growing sense of deprivation, exploitation, and insecurity is prevalent among the people of this region, which has contributed to giving birth to a number of insurgent groups who have taken up arms against their own government for self-determination. India's myopic decision to crush insurgency through military means without finding the root cause to better understand the problem and the absence of a mature policy of providing economic and social incentives to remove inequalities have created myriad of problems causing further alienation of indigenous people. Now India wants to involve Bangladesh in quelling insurgency in its North-East region disregarding the fact that without offering appropriate political and economic incentive package to address the legitimate grievances of the indigenous people no third party can do anything to mitigate the problem and that such involvement bears the risk of antagonizing the insurgents which could seriously undermine the security of Bangladesh.
4. Strategy of Trade Exploitation: In bilateral trade relations with its neighbors, India follows a policy of deriving maximum benefits by securing duty free access for its commodities, by cornering other smaller regional countries by not allowing them to have similar trade privileges, and by imposing non tariff barriers on their exports. The SAARC trade leaders have also termed India as the major roadblock in boosting regional trade. Bangladesh is a victim of the same exploitative Indian trade strategy and suffers from a trade deficit to the amount of almost $9 billion with India because of non removal of tariff and non tariff barriers on her exports. To offset the negative impact of this yawning trade gap, so far India has not offered any significant amount of investments and loans to Bangladesh. Harshly criticizing the Indian attitude toward trade liberalization, Mr. C. Raja Mohan said, “ If the penny-pinching bureaucrats of the Commerce Ministry look beyond the immediate revenue-loss, they could find that freer trade with Bangladesh would facilitate faster growth in Bangladesh and make it a bigger market for Indian goods." Many in Bangladesh and India argue that when two unequal economic powers live together the bigger economy dominates the smaller one, but this notion is obsolete because there are examples in other parts of the world where smaller economies are deriving more benefits from their bigger neighbors through freer access to markets and other trade privileges. One such example is the U.S.-Canada trade relations where Canada being a smaller economy is enjoying a substantial trade surplus with the U.S.A because of latter's mature trade policy to foster improved regional cooperation.
5. Strategy of Unilateral Exploitation of Shared Resources: The Indian strategy of bilateralism and non implementation of water sharing treaties has caused enormous difficulties to its lower riparian neighbors because India uses the prevailing asymmetry of power to its own advantage to deprive its neighbors of their due share of water. This has caused enormous ecological damage to riverine Bangladesh as supply of water during dry season has dwindled at an alarming rate. Renowned water expert, Dr. Ainun Nishat in an interview with a local daily said, “But Article-2 (2) stipulates that India will protect the flow at a specified level. Unless this protection mechanism is in operation the residual flow that arrives at Farakka may not be the flow that matches 40 years average condition. In short, the flow distributed has not been protected by India as per provision of the treaty..............What India is doing now is that it is supplying residual water to Farakka to be shared by Bangladesh as India is either withdrawing water from upper riparian rivers or diverting water flows to other rivers within India by river linking projects.” There are examples where other nations have successfully resolved disagreements over sharing common natural resources based on justice and equality through treaty agreements that not only preserved the rights of the lower riparian countries, but also fostered cooperation in joint exploitation of shared resources for the benefit of the region. 'The Boundary Water Treaty 1909' between the U.S.A and Canada set forth a set of principles for both the countries in using the water of common rivers. As per the treaty, both the countries must agree to any project that would change the natural levels or flows of boundary waters to ensure the legitimate rights of lower riparian country are not violated.
6. Strategy of Eroding neighbors Geographical Advantages: The geographical reality is such that India needs a strategic land transit through Bangladesh to directly link itself with South-East Asia in order to implement its much touted look-east policy, but the risk is such land transit will make Bangladesh a land-bridge between South and South-East Asia and will diminish India's own strategic importance vis a vis Bangladesh. So, India has, with the help of UNESCAP, forced Bangladesh to accept the Asian Highway route alignment that will link India's mainland to North-East and through North-East to Myanmar to implement its look-east policy. This will permanently isolate Bangladesh from South-East Asia, and will also diminish her strategic advantage vis a vis India. There can be no dispute in the veracity of such a strategic move to isolate Bangladesh from South-East Asia because India has already implemented Ganga-Mekong cooperation, which is in line with its look-east policy, that includes its North-East and most of South-East Asian countries but excludes Bangladesh. Excluding Bangladesh from such a project defies the reality of geography, but that has been done with an aim to use Bangladesh as a mere land-corridor between East and North-East India and to permanently isolate Bangladesh from South-East Asia through deceiving her into accepting an uneconomical Asian Highway route.

 

[Saif]

Strategic Planning for Bangladesh

With 17 times larger landmass, 10 times larger population, and 6 times larger military, India is placed in an advantageous position to negotiate with Bangladesh from the position of strength to define the bilateral relation in such a way that suits its own political, strategic, and economic interests. Being the weaker party, Bangladesh has to be creative in devising strategies to utilize India's geographical and security vulnerabilities to her own advantage to deal with the strategic challenges that arise from asymmetry of power with India. Strategic alliances, membership with international security forums, and smart planning to use geographical advantages against India are some of the things that Bangladesh needs to do to maintain a power equilibrium.

Strategic Goals

1. To use geographical advantages to define relationships with regional and extra-regional countries on the basis of equality and mutual interdependence.
2. To promote multilateralism in negotiations and conflict resolutions to ensure balance of power and to protect national interests.
3. To consider maritime zone a vital strategic outlet to connect to the rest of the world, to promote trade and economic interests, to maintain independence in crafting foreign relations, and to avoid being sea-locked by neighboring states.

Strategic Objectives

1. To utilize geographical vulnerabilities of neighboring countries to maximize strategic advantages and minimize strategic vulnerabilities.
2. To fully utilize the advantage of geographical proximity to be a land-bridge between South and South-East Asia to increase economic, political, and strategic opportunities.
3. To actively seek security cooperation from friendly nations under bilateral, regional, and global security framework to reduce disadvantages arising from asymmetry of power with India.
4. To enact relevant laws, set principles, formulate procedures, and raise and equip maritime agencies with appropriate tools to enforce those laws, principles, and procedures to establish sovereignty over the maritime zone of the country.

Strategy Recommendations

The government of Bangladesh will define the responsibilities of different agencies to design, to implement, and to enforce strategies to deal with existing power inequalities with India. They will also establish policies to review the current strategies to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to ensure effectiveness to respond to current risks and to adjust to future risks.

No single strategy is enough to deal with a country as big and powerful as India, so Bangladesh has to employ several different strategies to diminish India's strategic advantage over Bangladesh through identifying and taking advantage of their security weak points, and through internationalizing bilateral issues to seek help from powerful friends and international forums so as to force India to resolve any disputes on the basis of justice, equality, and mutual respect.

In light of the above discussion, Bangladesh may employ the following strategies to protect her national interest vis a vis India:

1. Diplomacy: To use bilateral diplomatic channel to resolve dispute in an amicable manner; if that fails then use regional forums to raise the issue and to involve other regional actors in the dispute resolution process, and if still that doesn't work then use the United Nations to take diplomatic action to prevent dispute from escalating into conflict.
2. International security forums: To make exhaustive efforts to raise bilateral security issues with India in ASEAN Regional Forum in an attempt to engage all the members of the forum in constructive security dialogue to resolve dispute through confidence building or through preventive diplomacy.
3. Strategic alliance: To form strategic alliance with China to obtain security guarantee for protection against any possible Indian military misadventure, and to obtain political guarantee that China will use her veto power to thwart Indian attempt to use the United Nations Security Council to legitimize its unilateral action with respect to dispute with Bangladesh. Bangladesh will also work with China on matters affecting Chinese security interest based on mutual cooperation, interest, and utmost respect for each others sovereignty.
4. Strategic chicken neck: To consider the 'chicken neck' a strategic asset and to take political decision based on national consensus to not allow India the land transit rights on a bilateral basis through Bangladesh to transport goods, military or industrial, to its North-East region. Bangladesh should follow multilateralism in providing land transit which will give Bangladesh a clear strategic advantage over India because the latter will be forced to rely on Bangladesh for the stability and economic development of its North-East region.
5. Military strength: To gain substantial military power to tie the entire Eastern Command of India in a long term war to cause erosion in its ability to fight a simultaneous war against Bangladesh and China or other friendly forces in the region.

 

[Saif]

Peaceful Endeavors For A Broader cooperation And Partnership

Despite having divergent strategic and security outlook, Bangladesh and India, being so close neighbors and part of so many regional and international forums, should try to take solid actions to minimize differences to foster understanding and cooperation in various socio-economic and security issues for amicable co-existence and regional stability. The following set of actions are recommended to achieve a peaceful bilateral relation:

1. To promote regional cooperation to harness water resources for the benefit of agriculture and production of electricity
2. To provide duty free access for each others commodities to promote greater economic cooperation
3. To take prompt diplomatic actions to demarcate land and maritime borders in the spirit of justice, equality, and good neighborliness
4. To work closely to combat sea piracy, illegal arms trade, drug trafficking and human trafficking for the sake of regional security and stability
5. To create the culture of non-interference in each others internal affairs to promote trust, confidence, and cooperation​

Concluding Observations

The geopolitical environments of Europe and South-East Asia are different from that of South Asia for the fact that the major European and South-East Asian nations have already discarded their regional ambition in favor of building regional community based on equality whereas in South Asia India still is adamantly pursuing its big power ambition and is therefore guided by the principles of domination making it impossible to build a regional community based on equality. Bangladesh, being the 8th largest country by population in the world and having an economy larger than that of combined economies of Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri-Lanka, and Maldives should assiduously strive to achieve a significant power status in South Asia through creatively using her strategic geographical location and competitive advantages. Any deficiency in bargaining power vis a vis India should be corrected through economic and political alliances with China and South-East Asia.

 

[Bilal9]

‘India Out’ campaigns simmer in Bangladesh amid election fallout​

Calls to boycott Indian goods in Bangladesh follow allegations of Indian interference in national elections.

Grocery stores have been unable to sell Indian-made chips [Al Jazeera]
By Faisal Mahmud
Published On 7 Feb 20247 Feb 2024

Dhaka, Bangladesh – Amid allegations of Indian interference in national elections, there’s a call to boycott Indian goods in Bangladesh.

Last week, a supplier for the Indian consumer goods giant Marico faced a chilly reception in Dhaka’s Panthapath area. Grocery shops, usually eager to stock their shelves with its hair oil, cooking oil, body lotion and other products, refused to take new deliveries.

“Sales of Parachute oil, a Marico bestseller, have plummeted to almost zero in recent weeks,” local shopkeeper Aman Ullah said. “Indian products just aren’t moving. We’re stuck with unsold stock and won’t be restocking.”

Another shop owner who requested anonymity revealed a deeper reason: “I don’t want to sell Indian products any more.” He cited YouTube videos advocating a boycott of Indian goods, which he wholeheartedly supported.

Simmering anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh has boiled over in the past decade, culminating in public displays such as celebrations in Dhaka last year after India’s loss in the Cricket World Cup final.

But after last month’s elections in Bangladesh, in which Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina secured a fourth term while the opposition boycotted the polls, a massive “India Out” campaign was launched, alleging Indian interference in Bangladesh politics.

The Bangladeshi diaspora and opposition groups have fuelled this anti-India movement and advocated boycotts of Indian products. This movement mirrors similar campaigns in the Maldives, where Mohamed Muizzu capitalized on anti-India sentiment to win the presidential election.

In Dhaka, the campaign was launched against the backdrop of India’s traditionally strong ties with Hasina’s government and its strained relationship with the opposition, leading many to believe India favoured the status quo.

Exiled Bangladeshi physician Pinaki Bhattacharya, who fled alleged government harassment in 2018, has emerged as the key figure in this burgeoning social media movement accusing India of interfering in Bangladesh’s recent elections to keep Hasina in power.

Through his more than two million followers across social media platforms, Bhattacharya launched the #BoycottIndia campaign in mid-January, urging them to join “this monumental endeavour”. His call, emphasizing love of homeland and determination to break free from perceived shackles, resonated with thousands.

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The anti-India movement has surged online, fuelled by user-generated content. Photos of crossed-out Indian products like Amul butter and Dabur honey are circulating alongside barcode identification tips to boycott these goods. A single post highlighting the 890 prefix used in barcodes for Indian products garnered more than 1,000 shares, showcasing the movement’s online reach.

Why did the campaign gain traction?​

The Indian High Commission in Dhaka declined Al Jazeera’s request for a comment on this anti-India campaign.

At a Mumbai forum on January 30 with Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, attendees raised concerns about India’s foreign policy amid perceived shifts in regional dynamics, particularly the growing pull of major rival China on neighbouring countries like Bangladesh and the Maldives.
Jaishankar downplayed concerns about foreign policy shortcomings but conceded the competitive reality. He pointed out that China’s geographical proximity naturally grants it influence over neighbouring countries like the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.



Screengrab from Facebook of online movements advocating boycott of Indian products

State Minister of Information and Broadcasting and lawmaker from the ruling Awami League Mohammad A Arafat, too, dismissed the concerns saying Bangladesh had received global attention because of the unprecedented fact of a fourth term for the ruling government.

“If I have to talk about other country’s interest in our local politics, then the first name I would mention is the United States which even declared a Visa restriction policy based on Bangladesh election. On the other hand, India, from the very onset officially stated that Bangladesh’s election is its internal matter and it has no say in it,” Arafat said.

Obaidul Quader, general secretary of Awami League told Al Jazeera that the “India out” campaign is run by opposition parties who instead of taking part in the election blaming “India for their misfortune.”

“They [the opposition parties] have this trump card of bashing India if anything goes against them,” said Quader, “I don’t think common people of Bangladesh support this campaign. They know that Awami League will never work against the interest of people.”

The burgeoning anti-India campaign, meanwhile, is finding traction within Bangladesh’s domestic political landscape, raising concerns about potentially destabilising Bangladesh’s economy and impacting regional relations.

Gono Odhikar Parishad, a rising political force aligned with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led opposition, is promoting the boycott movement. Party leader Nurul Haque Nur declared at a recent rally in Dhaka that “We all have to start an ‘India Out’ campaign'” while alleging Indian interference in the recent elections.

Rumeen Farhana, international affairs secretary of the BNP, told Al Jazeera that the people of Bangladesh never liked India’s interference in Bangladesh politics. “It’s now crystal clear that India did everything possible to keep the regime in power since 2014,” she alleged.

Resentment against India reached a boiling point in Bangladesh after Hasina’s Awami League secured a resounding victory in the January 7 elections, capturing 223 seats out of 300 in parliament. Critics alleged the process lacked legitimacy due to the opposition’s boycott and the presence of numerous Awami League-backed independent candidates, raising questions about the fairness of the vote.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered swift congratulations to both Hasina and “the people of Bangladesh for the successful conduct of elections”, endorsing the outcome. In contrast, Western governments expressed reservations, highlighting the boycott and the lack of a strong opposition presence.


Facebook Screengrab of calls for a boycott of Indian products in favour of Bangladeshi products

Farhana said anti-India public sentiment in Bangladesh goes beyond politics. “The border killing, unresolved water sharing of 53 rivers including Teesta, trade deficit all play roles to that,” she said.

Around 1,276 Bangladeshis have been killed and 1,183 injured by India’s border forces since 2010, according to human rights organisation Odhikar. Then there are the decades-old unresolved water-sharing agreements for 53 transboundary rivers in addition to Bangladesh’s massive trade deficit with India, all of which have raised concerns about Bangladesh’s sovereignty and economic independence.

Ali Riaz, distinguished professor of politics and government at Illinois State University, told Al Jazeera that India’s unqualified support of the Awami League and Hasina during the 2024 elections has raised questions among many citizens about “whether it has compromised the country’s sovereignty”.

However, Sreeradha Datta, a professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs in Sonepat, India, refuted the claims of India’s “unqualified support” and said the Awami League was “creative in going past the polls even if India [had] not agree[d] to recognise the election”.

“China and so many others congratulated PM Hasina right after the election, so would that make any difference if India didn’t support it?” she asked.

​

The economic fallout​

Analysts, meanwhile, pointed out that boycotting Indian goods could have major repercussions for the economic relationship between the two countries.

India is a major exporter to Bangladesh with annual trade historically exceeding $12bn. Additionally, Bangladesh relies heavily on India for essential commodities, and the two governments are currently in talks on an annual quota of imports of Indian farm products.

Calling the anti-India campaign a “political stunt”, Munshi Faiz Ahmed, former chairman of the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies, a state-funded think tank, told Al Jazeera that the economic fallout of boycotting Indian products will be more severe for Bangladesh.

“I don’t think any rational Bangladeshi would opt for taking part in this campaign. India is our neighbouring country, and we are heavily dependent on them for our everyday essentials like rice and onions. We are dependent because we get those products at the cheapest prices because of geographical proximity,” Ahmed said, adding that sourcing those products from somewhere else would cost much more.

Jyoti Rahman, an Australia-based economist told Al Jazeera that the “India Out” movement may be politically important to the extent that “it sends a strong message to the Indian policymakers” about growing discontent in Bangladesh but the “economic effects are less clear cut”.

Rahman pointed out that despite being India’s fourth largest export destination, Bangladesh still comprises about 3.5 percent of the Indian export market. “Even if all exports to Bangladesh stopped, it probably wouldn’t significantly affect the Indian economy as these products would find a market elsewhere,” Rahman said.

On the other hand, he said, a fifth of Bangladeshi imports are from India, including essentials such as cotton for the garment manufacturing sector, cereals and produce such as onions. “[Looking at] other sources of imports for these products could stoke inflation further,” Rahman said.

However, he highlighted the potential political effectiveness of boycotting non-essential items like tourism, cultural imports like Bollywood movies and consumer products, which he said could benefit domestic industries.

The overwhelming dependence of Bangladesh on India also means that “Indian businesses are vulnerable if such a movement gains traction and support”, Riaz said.

Even if the economic impacts are limited or not immediate, the boycotts will contribute to the public discourse on the role of India in Bangladeshi politics and highlight the unequal relationship, he said. “This is no less important.”

Additional reporting by Abu Jakir

 

[Saif]

Before 'India out' campaign we need to start 'Hasina out' campaign. Because if Hasina remains in power, she will subserve Indian interest by hook or by crook. So, let's kick Hasina out from Gonobhaban.

 

[Bilal9]

Before 'India out' campaign we need to start 'Hasina out' campaign. Because if Hasina remains in power, she will subserve Indian interest by hook or by crook. So, let's kick Hasina out from Gonobhaban.

Economic Boycott of Indian products have unfortunately become necessary (nay crucial) because the current Indian Central govt. is using the deficit of trade and our dependence on Indian exports as leverage to strong arm Bangladesh and subjugate Bangladesh to her short and long term interests, boycott is a must to make the Indian central govt. understand - that we mean business (literally) and we need to resolve long-term irritants in the external affairs relationship which Indian govt. seems to ignore.

Obviously this has nothing to do with long term relations with the everyday citizens of India. You don't choose who your neighbors are.

But yes - I understand your points and arguments on Hasina as well - who also needs to go because of the reasons you mentioned. She is just buying time at this point, her days may be numbered.

 

[Saif]

Economic Boycott of Indian products have unfortunately become necessary (nay crucial) because the current Indian Central govt. is using the deficit of trade and our dependence on Indian exports as leverage to strong arm Bangladesh and subjugate Bangladesh to her short and long term interests, boycott is a must to make the Indian central govt. understand - that we mean business (literally) and we need to resolve long-term irritants in the external affairs relationship which Indian govt. seems to ignore.

Obviously this has nothing to do with long term relations with the everyday citizens of India. You don't choose who your neighbors are.

But yes - I understand your points and arguments on Hasina as well - who also needs to go because of the reasons you mentioned. She is just buying time at this point, her days may be numbered.

If we can oust Hasina from the power, the new Govt. will definitely restrict Indian export to Bangladesh. We cannot force Indian products out from Bangladesh as long as Hasina remains in power. Hasina will implement her India first policy because she is subservient to India.

 

[Bilal9]

If we can oust Hasina from the power, the new Govt. will definitely restrict Indian export to Bangladesh. We cannot force Indian products out from Bangladesh as long as Hasina remains in power. Hasina will implement her India first policy because she is subservient to India.

I am afraid you are correct on this.

 

[Bilal9]

 

[Saif]

Today's discussion with Hasan Mahmud will strengthen Dhaka-Delhi ties: Jaishankar

Hasan Mahmud is visiting India at the invitation of his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar

www.thedailystar.net

Today's discussion with Hasan Mahmud will strengthen Dhaka-Delhi ties: Jaishankar​

Photo taken from the Indian External Affair Minister S Jaishankar's X account.

Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said today that discussions with his Bangladesh counterpart Hasan Mahmud would strengthen Dhaka-Delhi relations.

"Our discussions today will strengthen Bangladesh-India Maitri [friendship]," Jaishankar said in a brief message shared on X, formerly Twitter.

He welcomed Hasan to India.

Hasan Mahmud is visiting India at the invitation of his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar.

He held a meeting with India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on the first day of his visit.

After the meeting, the Awami League Joint General Secretary paid floral tributes at Mahatma Gandhi's cremation ground and memorial square at Rajghat.​