[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

[Saif]

Plight of Rohingya refugees continues to intensify

In the second week of July UNHCR spokesperson Babar Baloch in a press briefing at the Palais des Nations in Geneva has indicated that UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, and humanitarian partners are mobilising to respond to the needs of up to 150,000 Rohingya refugees who have arrived at Cox's Bazar, Ba

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Plight of Rohingya refugees continues to intensify

Muhammad Zamir
Published :
Jul 20, 2025 23:13
Updated :
Jul 20, 2025 23:13

LABOUR: Rohingya refugee workers carrying bags of salt this month in a processing yard in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. Photo : REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir Hossain/Files

In the second week of July UNHCR spokesperson Babar Baloch in a press briefing at the Palais des Nations in Geneva has indicated that UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, and humanitarian partners are mobilising to respond to the needs of up to 150,000 Rohingya refugees who have arrived at Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh over the last 18 months.

In this context, it has been highlighted that "targeted violence and persecution in Rakhine State and the ongoing conflict in Myanmar have continued to force thousands of Rohingyas to seek protection in Bangladesh". This movement of Rohingya refugees into Bangladesh, spread over months, has been the largest from Myanmar since 2017, when some 750,000 fled the deadly violence in their native Rakhine State.

While this was the largest Rohingya exodus into Bangladesh, it was not the first. Myanmar's persecution of the Rohingya has long been an issue of concern, with significant refugee flows into Bangladesh in 1978 and 1991-92.

Since the civil war erupted in Myanmar in 2021, this influx has continued unabated. As of today, over one million Rohingya live in Bangladesh. Most of them are hosted in 33 camps in Cox's Bazar district and over 36,000 have been relocated to Bhasan Char, an island in Noakhali district.

Bangladesh has been generously hosting Rohingya refugees from Myanmar for more than three decades. In Cox's Bazar, these new arrivals join another nearly 1 million Rohingya refugees crowded in just 24 square kilometres of space - making the camps one of the world's most densely populated places. To ease the situation a good number of them has been moved to Bhasan Char where different facilities, including healthcare have been made available.

Bangladesh is home to the largest number of Rohingya refugees in the world. Understanding the country's role is therefore essential to comprehend the complexities of the Rohingya condition.

It needs to be understood that Bangladesh does not have a national refugee policy. Therefore, it deals with refugees on a largely ad-hoc basis, relying on administrative instruments and directives. It is not a signatory to the international refugee instruments of 1951 and 1967. Consequently, the Rohingya are not legally recognised as refugees.

However, the Chief Adviser of the current Interim Government, Prof. Muhammad Yunus, has recently indicated that the Rohingya in Bangladesh are considered refugees for all practical purposes. However, as refugees, though Rohingyas do not get the same rights as citizens, they according to Article 31 of Bangladesh's Constitution (which protects every person within Bangladesh against any action detrimental to their life, liberty, and property) have an unalienable right to the application of the provision under Article 31.

Consequently, Bangladesh works with UN agencies and a vast network of domestic and foreign non-profit organisations to provide shelter, food, water, healthcare, and basic assistance to the Rohingyas. Such engagement includes adult education, vocational training, and social awareness campaigns. It also needs to be mentioned here that immunisation programmes for them have been successful in reducing outbreak of cholera and curbing the spread of Covid-19 during the pandemic. Although there is no access to formal education, the Rohingya refugees are taught through over 3,000 community learning centres that are mostly supported by UNICEF. Though legally forbidden from working in Bangladesh, nearly half of the Rohingya residents in the country claim to be engaged in the informal sector. The camps are also active sites of economic activity, like trade, services, and small manufacturing.

Dhaka's widely-praised efforts to address the Rohingya crisis are shaped by a range of factors that include both practicality and altruism. Its appeal for a 'sustainable' repatriation of the Rohingya is a demonstration of the intermingling of these factors. This emphasis puts the onus on Myanmar to find a durable solution for the Rohingya and assure long-term rights.

Unfortunately, as evident from Bangladesh's experience, without an enduring political solution from within Myanmar, this cyclical influx will be perpetual. Other practical considerations shaping Bangladesh's approach are significant challenges related to funding, overcrowding, and security.

The Rohingya crisis continues to be a significant challenge not only for the refugees but also Bangladesh. Bangladesh's capacity is stretched thin, with resource scarcity and security challenges exacerbating the situation. The UN Secretary-General's recent visit to see for himself the Rohingya situation in Bangladesh underscored the need to keep this crisis at the forefront of global priorities. As a host state, Bangladesh's efforts are critical to managing the crisis, but durable solutions require greater and more concerted international cooperation.

Among the new arrivals, nearly 121,000 had been biometrically identified by the end of June, with more believed to be residing informally in the already overcrowded refugee camps. The overwhelming majority are women and children.

More humanitarian support is urgently required as the new arrivals are largely dependent on the solidarity of those living in the camps, overstretching severely diminished resources. Biometric identification has allowed humanitarian partners in Bangladesh to provide the new arrivals with basic services, including food, medical care, education and essential relief items. However, this will soon dry up without an immediate injection of funds. Access to shelter and other key necessities is also insufficient in the face of limited resources.

With the acute global funding crisis, the critical needs of both newly-arrived refugees and those already present, in all likelihood will be unmet and essential services are at risk of collapsing.

Unless additional funds are secured, health services will be severely disrupted by September and essential cooking fuel (LPG) will run out. By December, food assistance will stop. Education for some 230,000 children - including 63,000 new arrivals - is also at risk of being discontinued.

Refugees in the camps have already felt the impact of these reductions. They fear more cuts are looming. This is fueling a sense of desperation and anxiety, and driving some to embark on dangerous sea journeys to other countries in search of safety and a more dignified life for their families..

UNHCR and humanitarian partners are grateful that the government of Bangladesh has authorised newly-arrived Rohingya refugees to access emergency assistance and key services in the camps in Cox's Bazar. Nevertheless, some analysts involved with human rights have been advocating that as the conflict in Myanmar continues unabated, the Bangladeshi authorities need to provide managed access to safety and asylum for civilians fleeing the conflict.

Such an approach is being sought because over the years, the generous support from Bangladesh and the international community has been critical in meeting Rohingya refugees' most basic needs and providing protection.

However, currently every aspect of the refugee response is affected by fund scarcity. Accordingly, UNHCR and its humanitarian partners are also calling on the international community to stand in solidarity with Bangladesh and other countries. It is being stressed that the international community must continue to support the efforts for providing life-saving assistance to the Rohingya refugees until the situation in Myanmar's Rakhine State is conducive to their safe and voluntary return.

The United Nations has correctly observed that Rohingya refugees are in peril in Bangladesh as international financial support has waned.

Such an approach could definitely and rapidly affect the plight of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh which is bound to rapidly deteriorate further unless more funding can be secured for critical assistance services, according to the United Nations refugee agency.

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) spokesperson Babar Baloch has told reporters "there is a huge gap in terms of what we need and what resources are available. These funding gaps will affect the daily living of Rohingya refugees as they depend on humanitarian support on a daily basis for food, health and education."

Many involved with this crisis have also observed that the humanitarian sector has been churned by funding reductions from major donors, led by the United States under President Donald Trump and other Western countries, as they appear to be prioritizing defence spending prompted by growing concerns over Russia and China.

At the same time Baloch has added that "due to the acute global funding crisis, the critical needs of both newly arrived refugees and those already present will be unmet, and essential services for the whole Rohingya refugee population are at risk of collapsing unless additional funds are secured."

It has also been noted that if enough funding is not secured, health services will be severely disrupted by September, and by December, essential food assistance will stop according to the UNHCR. They have informed that their appeal for US Dollar 255 million has only been 35 percent funded. It may be recalled that in March, the World Food Programme announced that "severe funding shortfalls" for Rohingya were forcing a cut in monthly food vouchers from US Dollar 12.50 to US Dollar 6 per person.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.​

 

[Saif]

Rohingya refugees: World must meet funding shortfall

The Rohingya crisis, now in its seventh year, continues to test the resilience of the international humanitarian system and the moral conscience of the world. More than one million Rohingya refugees currently reside in squalid, overcrowded camps in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. Driven from their ancestr

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Rohingya refugees: World must meet funding shortfall

MIR MOSTAFIZUR RAHAMAN
Published :
Jul 22, 2025 00:00
Updated :
Jul 22, 2025 00:01

Rohingya Muslims carry their young children and belongings after crossing the border from Myanmar into Bangladesh, near Palong Khali, Bangladesh, Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2017 —Agency Photo

The Rohingya crisis, now in its seventh year, continues to test the resilience of the international humanitarian system and the moral conscience of the world. More than one million Rohingya refugees currently reside in squalid, overcrowded camps in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. Driven from their ancestral homeland in Rakhine State, Myanmar, by one of the most brutal campaigns of ethnic violence in recent memory, these refugees have been living under makeshift tarpaulin roofs, in what has become one of the most densely populated areas on earth -- just 24 square kilometres of land, housing a vast population in exile.

Despite the heroic efforts of the Bangladesh government, local communities, and international humanitarian agencies, the situation for the Rohingyas is becoming increasingly dire. Not only have the conditions deteriorated within the camps due to prolonged displacement and environmental degradation, but also an alarming shortfall in international funding now threatens the very survival of this vulnerable population. Without urgent international action, the ongoing deplorable humanitarian situation may worsen, pushing an already traumatised community to the brink of desperation.

The current Rohingya crisis erupted in August 2017 when Myanmar's military unleashed a wave of targeted violence in Rakhine State, forcing over 700,000 Rohingya people to flee across the border to Bangladesh. With the influx that followed, Bangladesh became host to what is now the world's largest refugee settlement. Although Rohingyas were previously excluded from full citizenship and basic rights in Myanmar, the scale of brutality that ensued -- from arson and rape to indiscriminate killings -- amounted to what the United Nations described as a textbook example of ethnic cleansing.

In the face of such atrocities, the global community rallied, at least initially. A coordinated mechanism called the Joint Response Plan (JRP) was created, enabling the United Nations agencies and the Bangladesh government to pool resources and coordinate efforts to provide food, healthcare, shelter, water, sanitation, and education to the refugees. It was a shining example of multilateral cooperation, with many donor countries and international organizations stepping forward in solidarity.

However, this early momentum is now faltering. The crisis of compassion is being replaced by a crisis of commitment.

According to reports, the funding situation for Rohingya assistance has reached a critical point. In 2024, the JRP sought $934 million to provide basic services and support to the refugee community. As of May, only 15 per cent of that amount had been secured. This marks a continuation of the downward trend from last year, when the appeal for $852 million raised only $558 million. This widening gap between needs and resources is not just a bureaucratic concern -- it is a matter of life and death.

The consequences of such funding shortfalls are grave. The World Food Programme (WFP), for instance, has already reduced the monthly food voucher per refugee from $12.50 to $6 due to severe funding shortfalls.

The UNHCR has warned that unless additional funds are secured soon, health services will be severely disrupted by September, and food assistance could cease altogether by December. Such developments could have devastating effects --malnutrition, disease outbreaks, and social unrest are all likely outcomes in such conditions.

The funding crisis is being exacerbated by shifting global priorities. With major Western donors -- including the United States -- redirecting resources towards military support in Ukraine and other geopolitical hotspots, humanitarian crises like that of the Rohingyas are falling by the wayside. Global humanitarian budgets are shrinking even as global displacement reaches historic highs. This is not just a failure of economics; it is a failure of ethics.

The situation is further complicated by a renewed influx of Rohingyas into Bangladesh. In the past 18 months alone, at least 150,000 more refugees have crossed the border due to ongoing violence and persecution in Myanmar's Rakhine State. Far from improving, the situation within Myanmar has become more unstable due to military rule and widespread conflict. For the Rohingyas, the threat of further ethnic violence looms large, and for Bangladesh, the burden of hosting more displaced people becomes increasingly unsustainable.

The international community must recognise that the prolonged stay of refugees in host countries without adequate support creates long-term risks -- not only humanitarian but also social, environmental, and political. The host community in Cox's Bazar has already sacrificed much, enduring environmental degradation, rising living costs, and social strain. It is unreasonable -- and unjust -- to expect Bangladesh to continue bearing this burden alone.

It is imperative that the world not only steps up funding for Rohingya humanitarian assistance but also actively supports sustainable solutions to the crisis. While humanitarian aid is essential for immediate survival, the only viable long-term solution is safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation of the Rohingyas to their homeland in Myanmar. For this to happen, the international community must exert consistent and coordinated pressure on the Myanmar military junta to ensure the protection of the rights of the Rohingyas and guarantee their citizenship, security, and access to justice.

In this regard, the international legal mechanisms and diplomatic platforms, including the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN Security Council, ASEAN, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), must intensify efforts to hold Myanmar accountable and push for inclusive political reforms.

Bangladesh has shown tremendous generosity in opening its borders to a persecuted population. But generosity cannot be a substitute for global responsibility. The crisis is international in origin and must be international in its resolution.

Addressing the funding gap for the Rohingya crisis must begin with moral clarity. The world must reaffirm that no population should be allowed to languish in limbo, deprived of basic human dignity, simply because their suffering is no longer headline news. Donor countries must recommit themselves to the humanitarian principles they claim to uphold.

Firstly, major donors, especially those who once played a significant role in supporting Rohingya assistance, must increase their contributions to the JRP. New donors -- including emerging economies -- should be encouraged to participate as part of a shared global responsibility.

Secondly, humanitarian aid must be depoliticised. The provision of food, healthcare, and education to vulnerable populations should never be held hostage to shifting geopolitical interests.

Thirdly, regional cooperation must be enhanced. Countries in South and Southeast Asia must develop a coordinated framework for refugee management, burden-sharing, and cross-border humanitarian assistance.

Finally, repatriation should remain the central pillar of international engagement with the Rohingya issue. This requires not only sustained diplomatic pressure but also investment in rebuilding the Rakhine State with infrastructure, security guarantees, and inclusive governance mechanisms that can ensure the safe return of the Rohingya people.

The plight of the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh is not merely a local or regional issue -- it is a global test of our shared humanity. The international community must act now, decisively and generously, to bridge the widening funding gap and prevent a humanitarian disaster. At the same time, the world must press harder for a sustainable, rights-based solution in Myanmar. The cost of inaction is too high, not just for the Rohingya, but for the credibility of global humanitarian commitment.

Bangladesh has done more than its fair share. Now the world must do the same.

​

 

[Saif]

Reasons why the US lifted sanctions on Myanmar

This move has very little to do with Myanmar’s domestic politics.

www.thedailystar.net

Reasons why the US lifted sanctions on Myanmar

Myanmar’s value to the US isn’t rooted in ideology—it’s logistics, minerals, and map lines. FILE PHOTO: REUTERS

It slipped in quietly. No grand announcement, no televised press conference. Just a routine notice from the US Treasury: several Myanmar-linked individuals—business elites connected to the military junta—have been removed from the sanctions list. That's it. No real explanation. For anyone who's been following US policy since Myanmar's 2021 coup, this looked off. Human rights groups were quick to call it "shocking" and "deeply troubling." And fair enough—on the surface, it seems like the US just eased up on a regime responsible for mass violence and democratic backsliding. But here's the thing: this move has very little to do with Myanmar's domestic politics. It's not about democracy or human rights. It's about other geostrategic and geopolitical actors like China. It's about rare earths. It's about geography. And it's about time.

Let's back up a bit. The sanctions weren't lifted in a vacuum. Two weeks earlier, Myanmar's top general, Min Aung Hlaing, sent a letter to US President Donald Trump. In it, he praised Trump's leadership, floated tariff reductions, and, importantly, asked for sanctions relief. The wording was deliberately flattering, almost performative. But also pragmatic. Myanmar wants access to US markets. It needs economic oxygen. And it knows how to talk to a White House that thinks in deals. Shortly after, the US Treasury removed several junta-linked names: businesspeople operating in defence logistics, tech, and supply chains. Some had only been sanctioned recently. Again, no formal reason was offered. But nothing in geopolitics happens in a vacuum.

Myanmar's value to the US isn't rooted in ideology. It's logistics, minerals, and map lines. Look at where it sits, wedged between Bangladesh, India, China, and the Bay of Bengal. It's a perfect fulcrum point in what's become the most contested strategic region today: the Indo-Pacific. From the US perspective, this isn't just about what Myanmar is. It's about what China is doing inside Myanmar. And the picture isn't simple. Beijing has, for years, been investing in infrastructure, buying access, and forging relationships with both the military and insurgent ethnic groups in Myanmar. This includes groups that control key territories filled with rare earth minerals. That part is important. Rare earths are the raw ingredients in nearly every modern technology: batteries, jets, radar systems, smartphones, the whole stack. Right now, China processes more than 90 percent of global supply. Myanmar's mines, most of which are barely regulated, are one of the few alternatives. But China is already embedded there too, refining the ore across the border and flooding global markets.

For the US, that's a nightmare scenario. It means China not only dominates the processing game but is also securing the upstream supply chain. So if Washington wants to reduce dependency, it can't just keep shouting from a distance. It needs to be inside the room. That room, like it or not, includes people with close ties to the military.

Strategically, this starts to make sense. US grand strategy, as discussed by Hal Brands in American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump, rarely prioritises ideals over positioning. It's often reactive, improvisational, and focused on regaining leverage. Robert Kaplan's The Revenge of Geography helps explain why Myanmar matters regardless of its internal politics, because where it sits matters. Chokepoints like the Bay of Bengal are too important to leave open to adversaries. John Mearsheimer's structural realism, outlined in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, provides the grim rationale: in a zero-sum world, you engage where your rivals thrive, even if it means dealing with actors you'd otherwise shun. Michael Klare's The Race for What's Left adds the final piece: resources define 21st-century power. Controlling or disrupting rare earth supply chains is no longer just an economic concern; it's a national security concern.

And still, even beyond the resource game, there are other layers. One is maritime control. China has been busy building its "String of Pearls"—a network of ports and naval facilities stretching from mainland China to the Horn of Africa. Myanmar's coast, particularly the Kyaukpyu port, is a jewel in that string. For Washington, preventing this region from becoming a Chinese naval corridor is a high priority, even if it means taking uncomfortable steps. Another layer is regional diplomacy. Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka are watching.All of them are trying to balance relations with Beijing and Washington. The US, by engaging Myanmar, even symbolically, may be signalling that it can be pragmatic, offering carrots, not just sticks.

There's also the issue of influence down the road. The Myanmar junta is under pressure, economically, militarily, and diplomatically. Ethnic armed groups are gaining ground. The economy is a mess. If things fall apart, and they very well might, the US will want contacts inside the country who aren't just civil society activists or dissidents in exile. It'll need people who know how things work on the ground, even if those people have, until now, been on the other side of the ledger. Lifting sanctions might be less about rewarding anyone, and more about rebalancing options. In diplomatic terms, this is keeping the door ajar without committing to a full pivot.

Of course, none of this will sit well with rights groups or Myanmar's pro-democracy forces. It sends a confusing message: that the junta's crimes can be overlooked if the timing suits. That may be true, but it's also consistent with how international politics often works. Morality, unfortunately, is a variable, not a constant, especially when strategic minerals, shipping lanes, and regional influence are in play.

So here we are. The US lifted sanctions on some military-linked figures. It didn't do it out of friendship. It did it to stay in the game—to push back, however subtly, against China's tightening grip on Southeast Asia's most strategic fault line. It's messy, uncomfortable, and maybe even risky. But in the long run, it might be the only way to get a seat at a table that's already being set, without Washington.

Syed Raiyan Amir is senior research associate at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA).​

 

[Saif]

The world is failing Rohingya children again

About 6,400 learning centres halt early-grade classes amid deep aid cuts

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The world is failing Rohingya children again
About 6,400 learning centres halt early-grade classes amid deep aid cuts

VISUAL: STAR

We are deeply concerned about the future of 400,000 Rohingya children who are facing uncertainty due to disruptions in their education. Reportedly, because of a shortage of funding, nearly 6,400 informal schools run by NGOs in the refugee camps of Cox's Bazar have either suspended classes or significantly reduced teaching hours. On June 3, UNICEF and Save the Children, which supervise the informal learning centres, suspended classes for students ranging from kindergarten to class 4. This is deeply worrying, as these centres not only provide education but also serve as safe spaces for the children.

The total budget requirement for the 1.2 million Rohingyas and 300,000 members of the host community is $934 million this year, but as of July 12, only $303 million (32 percent) has been secured. This means the refugees will now have to struggle even more to access basic rights, including proper nutrition and healthcare. The suspension of educational activities is particularly worrying considering its long-term impact. While $72 million is reportedly required to cover the educational expenses of Rohingya children this year, less than $10 million has been received so far. Hundreds of teachers at the learning centres have also lost their jobs as a consequence of the funding crunch, which was caused by a drastic reduction in humanitarian aid from the US.

Rohingya leaders and teachers of these centres believe that suspending classes from kindergarten to class 4 is not a good idea since most children are enrolled in grades below class 6. Teachers proposed reducing lesson hours for kindergarten to class 4 instead of full suspension, like the way other classes are receiving reduced hours—classes 5 to 7 are receiving lessons four days a month, and those in classes 8 to 10 five days a week. That way, teachers say, the children will not be deprived of their education. They also demanded that the suspended teachers be reinstated. These proposals are valid, and we hope the relevant authorities will consider them.

The learning centres have offered the Rohingya children a hope for a better future and their suspension threatens to rob them of that hope, which must not happen. We urge the government, international donors, and NGOs to work together to secure alternative funding to continue education projects in the camps, and prevent these children from becoming a lost generation.​