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[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh

G Bangladesh Defense
[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh
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More threads by Saif

LOL. Boasting about this BS does not work anymore Mr. Modi-ka-chela. :)

You are also poorer in income and worse than Bangladesh in GDP per capita with the world's unhealthiest unhygienic and hungriest population. Bottom tier position. Is this something to take pride in ?? We don't.

It is a shame that you have to compare yourself to Bangladesh which used to be bottomless basket, and cannot even compare your economy and GDP to China.


What good is having fourth largest military when people cannot eat or find toilets to poop in?

Think.

Wrong, wronger, wrongest priorities.

You can't just ignore basic reality and show one-sided picture of one or two factors or sectors.

Sounds kind of harsh but one has to point these things out when you start to boast.

Being No. 2 consumer market is worthless when divvied up among 1.4 Billion people.

Already there are signs (which Modi media tried so hard to repress) that family incomes and spending are headed for oblivion in India.

We are in a way happy in Bangladesh that India deserves a place of repute globally. After all we are all desis.

But boasting about 2nd, 3rd and 4th place in this or that is a bad Hindutva habit which makes India the laughing stock and subjects of derision in this world, with educated folks.

The time for this kind of idle boast has come and gone. Everyone knows about what and where India was and is.

Trying to get respect or validation for this or that from non-Indians is a laughable trait.

Those who will respect India don't have to be forced to do so.

Boasting is something which when you import rice from a country and call that that country faces hunger poverty. Let me post herewith the report of most reliable source of economic condition. That is none other than IMF. read here and decide whether I am boasting or you are boasting.

India has almost wiped out extreme poverty: International Monetary Fund​

ByZia Haq
Apr 07, 2022 05:40 PM IST

In India, the number of people living in extreme poverty -- defined by the World Bank as living on US$1.9 or less in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms -- was 0.8% of the population in the pre-pandemic year 2019, stated the IMF paper, published on April 5, 2022.​

New Delhi: India has almost eradicated extreme poverty and brought down consumption inequality to its lowest levels in 40 years through state-provided food handouts, according to a new working paper published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

India has almost wiped out extreme poverty, says IMF(REUTERS)
India has almost wiped out extreme poverty, says IMF(REUTERS)


The IMF working paper -- authored by economists Surjit Bhalla, Arvind Virmani and Karan Bhasin -- said that the proportion of people living in extreme poverty, at less than 1%, remained steady even during the pandemic on the back of “in-kind” subsidies, especially food rations.

The study comes at a time when several recent global reports have pointed to the widening gap between the rich and poor in Asia’s third-largest economy, while studies on the economic shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic vary in their conclusions.

In India, the number of people living in extreme poverty -- defined by the World Bank as living on US$1.9 or less in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms -- was 0.8% of the population in the pre-pandemic year 2019, stated the IMF paper, published on April 5, 2022.


Food rations were “instrumental” in ensuring that extreme poverty did not increase and “remained at that low level” in the pandemic year 2020, the study found. PPP is a metric that equalises the buying power of different currencies to make comparisons easy.


“Our results also demonstrate the social safety net provided by the expansion of India’s food subsidy program absorbed a major part of the pandemic shock,” the authors stated. Such back-to-back low poverty rates suggest India has eliminated extreme poverty, they concluded.

Also read: Pakistan in turmoil, IMF's $6 billion bailout programme on hold

What sets their study apart, according to the authors, is the effect of subsidy adjustments on poverty. The results are “striking”, they said in the working paper. Food handouts curbed poverty by acting like “cash transfers”.

IMF states that its working papers describe research in progress, and are published to elicit comments.

Real (inflation-adjusted) inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, which stands at 0.294, is now very close to its lowest level 0.284 observed in 1993-94, the paper stated. The Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, with 0 representing perfect equality and 1 representing perfect inequality.


“The food subsidy is 5kg per person. In terms of a household, that would be about 25 kg a month. Now if you convert that into prices, that would come to about ₹750. This is not an insignificant amount for really poor households,” said Pronab Sen, former chief statistician of India.

“But I cannot imagine ₹750 changing the inequality part of it. Absolute poverty in terms of hunger…yes, but inequality is a different ballgame. ₹750 is just not enough to move the needle on inequality,” Sen added.

Also read: Why IMF praised PM Modi’s food security scheme during pandemic

Most previous studies and measures of poverty and inequality did not account for the role of food handouts, the paper’s authors noted. “These (new) estimates include, for the first time, the effect of in-kind food subsides on poverty and inequality,” the paper stated.


During the first Covid-19 lockdown in 2020, the Modi government launched the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana (PMGKAY), a programme to distribute a fixed quantity of free foodgrain (5kg per head) to the poor beyond their usual entitlement of 25kg a month of subsidised grains.

Over 800 million beneficiaries under the National Food Security Act are covered by the programme. Last week, the government said it would extend the PMGKAY till September 2022.

A National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper in December last year, too, showed that inequality surprisingly reduced during the pandemic, mainly because incomes of the rich from the services sector had plunged, while farm-sector output was resilient. However, this paper found a spike in extreme poverty during the pandemic.


When India’s economy saw its worst-ever recession of -6.6% in 2020-21, the farm sector grew 3.3%, according to revised official estimates.

The World Inequality Report, released in December last year, said India emerged as the most unequal country with the top 1% of the population holding more than one-fifth of the total national income in 2021.

The richest Indians more than doubled their wealth during the Covid-19 crisis, according to the global Oxfam Davos Report of 2022.

Yet another study by the International food Policy Research Institute scholar Yanyan Liu in 2019 found that the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme, acting as a conditional cash transfer, had increased welfare and reduced inequality.

Bhalla, one of the authors of the IMF paper, said, “Given that extreme poverty has been eradicated, India should move from $1.9 PPP poverty line to $3.2 poverty line”. This essentially means setting the poverty line high and is significant because it raises the income threshold for determining those below poverty line, and such a move would allow more people to qualify for subsidies.


“Bhalla’s method of using National Accounts Statistics numbers to estimate poverty is not new and he had declared poverty to have become insignificant in India 20 years ago,” said Jawaharlal Nehru University economist Himanshu.

Most economists do not agree with his method, Himanshu said, adding: “That is why we need another round of consumer expenditure survey to ascertain exact trends in poverty and inequality in India.”


 

Why IMF praised PM Modi’s food security scheme during pandemic​

videos
Published on Apr 06, 2022 03:06 PM IST
youtube-cta

A new study by International Monetary Fund has praised the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana for keeping extreme poverty levels in check during the pandemic. The latest IMF paper, published on 5 April 2020, found that extreme poverty (less than PPP USD 1.9 per person per day) in India is less than 1 per cent in 2019 and it remained at that level even during the COVID-19 pandemic year 2020. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's food security scheme has been critical in preventing any increase in extreme poverty levels in India during the COVID-19 pandemic." the report added. Watch this video for more details.​

 

Touhid likely to meet Jaishankar in Oman

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Bangladesh Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain and Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar may meet in Oman, on the sidelines of the Indian Ocean Conference slated for February 16-17.

This would be the second foreign minister-level meeting between the two. The first one was held in New York on the sidelines of UN General Assembly in September last year.

The New Delhi-based think tank, India Foundation, is organising the Indian Ocean Conference that has emerged as the flagship consultative forum for countries in the region over regional affairs.

The meeting between Touhid and Jaishankar in Oman could help ease the Indo-Bangla relations that remained strained since deposed prime minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India on August 5 amid a mass uprising, said diplomatic sources.

"The meeting will be an occasion to ease the relations," a diplomatic source in Dhaka told The Daily Star last night.

After the political changeover in Bangladesh, India on several occasions complained of repression against minorities, especially the Hindus. Bangladesh has repeatedly said the accusations were inflated, and majority of the attacks were political in nature, not religious.

Dhaka has complained of misinformation about Bangladesh in the Indian media and protested the statements of Hasina via social media, saying that those statements were inciting instability in Bangladesh.

There was also tension over India installing border fences within the 150 yards of the international borders at several places along the Bangladesh-India border.

After the demolition of Bangabandhu Memorial Museum in Dhanmondi 32, Bangladesh foreign ministry summoned Pawan Badhe, the Indian deputy high commissioner in Dhaka, to lodge a strong protest against Hasina's statements.

On February 7, Indian Ministry of External Affairs also summoned Bangladesh's Deputy High Commissioner Nural Islam.

Dhaka on February 9 termed India's condemnation of the incidents in Dhaka "unwarranted and unexpected".

"In the meeting in Oman, both the leaders may share their concerns and try to normalise the relationship," said a foreign ministry official.​
 

Foreign adviser likely to meet Jaishankar in Oman
UNB
Published :
Feb 12, 2025 22:57
Updated :
Feb 12, 2025 22:57
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Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain will attend the 8th Indian Ocean Conference to be held in Muscat, Oman, on February 16-17 with the theme "Voyages to New Horizons of Maritime Partnership."

Indian External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar will also attend the conference, raising hope for a bilateral meeting between Hossain and Jaishankar on the sidelines.

If it happens, this will be their second meeting since the formation of the interim government led by Prof Muhammad Yunus in August last year.

Hossain and Jaishankar had their first meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September last year.

The 8th Indian Ocean Conference is being organised by India Foundation in association with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Oman.

The Indian Ocean Conference was started by India Foundation in 2016 in Singapore, with participation from 30 countries.

In the last 8 years, the conference has emerged as the flagship consultative forum for countries in the region over regional affairs.

The conference endeavours to bring critical states and principal maritime partners of the region together on a common platform to deliberate upon the prospects of regional cooperation for Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR).

Foreign Adviser Hossain left Dhaka for Dubai, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Wednesday evening, said a senior official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

He is scheduled to go to Muscat, Oman from Dubai on February 14, the official said.

The adviser is scheduled to return home on February 18 after attending the Indian Ocean Conference.

In Muscat, President of the India Foundation Ram Madhav on Wednesday said the conference brings together the countries of the Indian Ocean region. "It has become a calendar event, not only in the region but the entire world.”

Oman Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi (host) along with foreign ministers of Australia Penny Wong, Bahrain Abdullatif Bin Rashid, Bhutan DN Dhungyel, Iran Abbas Araghchi, Maldives FM Abdulla Khaleel, Mauritius D Ramful, Nepal Arzu Rana Deuba, Sri Lanka Vijitha Herath, Seychelles Errol Fonseka, Eritrea FM Osman Saleh, will be present in Muscat.

Around 27 foreign ministers will be attending the gathering, with delegations from 45 countries in attendance.

The conference aligns with Oman’s Vision 2040, which focuses on economic diversification, environmental sustainability, and promoting renewable energy.​
 

Touhid, Jaishankar for working on bilateral challenges
Border-related issues to be discussed, resolved during BGB-BSF talks in Delhi

1739746555664.png

Photo: Collected

Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain and Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar today acknowledged the challenges facing bilateral relations and stressed the need for joint efforts to address them.

The discussion took place during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the 8th Indian Ocean Conference (IOC) in Muscat, Oman, according to a press release issued by the Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

"Both sides recognised the challenges the two neighbours are facing in terms of bilateral relations and discussed the necessity to work together to address those," it said.

During the meeting, Touhid underscored the importance of initiating discussions for the renewal of the Ganga Water Sharing Treaty.

He also emphasised the need for convening the SAARC Standing Committee meeting and requested India's support.

Both sides expressed optimism that various border-related issues would be addressed during the upcoming meeting at the director-general level of the border forces of the two countries, scheduled to be held in New Delhi from February 18 to 20.

The two leaders also exchanged views on other bilateral issues of mutual interest and concern.

Reflecting on their last meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2024, they noted that since then, the two nations have engaged in multiple bilateral dialogues, including the Foreign Office Consultations (FOC) at the Foreign Secretary level in Dhaka on December 9.

Besides, they also recalled the Bangladesh energy adviser's participation in the India Energy Week events in New Delhi on February 10-11.

Touhid also held meetings with the Second Minister of Foreign Affairs of Brunei, the Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of Vietnam, and the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tanzania on the sidelines of the IOC.

He is scheduled to meet the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Oman on Monday.​
 

Dhaka committed to boosting Indian Ocean partnership: foreign adviser

1739747053167.png

Md Touhid Hossain. File photo

Bangladesh has reiterated its commitment to embracing the tremendous opportunities that the Indian Ocean region offers by strengthening partnerships.

"We are committed to strengthening our partnerships across the Indian Ocean, addressing emerging challenges, and embracing the tremendous opportunities this region offers," said Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain today.

The multiple challenges and other geo-economic and geo-strategic factors require increased cooperation among the States, he said.

Hossain made the remarks while speaking at the plenary session titled "Strengthening Maritime Supply Chains: Overcoming Disruptions and Enhancing Resilience" as part of the 8th Indian Ocean Conference (IOC)-2025 in Muscat, Oman.

Sheikh Humaid Al Maani, Head of the Diplomatic Academy, MoFA, Oman chaired the session.

The foreign adviser said the Indian Ocean region is a crucial strategic area that links the Asia-Pacific and African regions, with profound economic, political and security significance.

The conference provided a platform for participants to engage in "constructive discussions, share ideas, exchange knowledge, identify actionable solutions, and build meaningful partnerships and cooperation" in the region.

"We look forward to working together to ensure a brighter, more prosperous future for all nations of the Indian Ocean and beyond," Adviser Touhid said.

As a littoral state, he said, Bangladesh has long been a centre of maritime activities and it actively participates in various regional platforms, including the Indian Ocean Rim Association and the International Seabed Authority.

The 8th Indian Ocean Conference is being held under the theme "Voyage of New Horizons of Maritime Partnership."

He said Bangladesh places strong importance on maritime cooperation for facilitating the efficient movement of goods, services and people and for advancing food security, energy security, water cooperation, disaster risk reduction and providing fair access to global public goods. Bangladesh advocates for "shared prosperity" through "shared responsibility".

Maritime transport is the main artery of global trade and maritime supply chains remain the backbone of the global economy, he added.

He said eighty percent of global trade by volume, and over seventy percent by value, is transported by sea and the Indian Ocean, the world's third-largest body of water, plays a crucial role in this global trade.

Approximately 80 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade transits through the strategic choke points of the Indian Ocean, making it a vital link between the East and the West.

"Countries depend on the Indian Ocean for the movement of goods through maritime trade routes, safeguarding their economic and energy interests. However, the sector is facing multifaceted challenges that endanger the efficiency, reliability, resilience and sustainability of maritime supply chains," he said.

Maritime supply chain is vulnerable to many challenges like port congestion, capacity limitations, regulatory, operational and administrative issues, cyberattacks, piracy, and geopolitical tensions, which can disrupt the efficiency of maritime supply chains.

"We must also remember that the oceans are not only a driving force for global economic growth but also a vital source of food security," Hossain said.

The oceans are facing growing pressures from population growth, global competition for resources, rising food demand, water scarcity, maritime security threats, climate change, biodiversity loss and marine pollution.

"We need to take appropriate actions to tackle the maritime security threats of piracy, armed robbery, human trafficking, illegal arms trade, and illegal and unregulated fishing, among others. We need to address regulatory and administrative issues," said the foreign adviser.

The global economy, food security, and energy supplies are at increasing risk due to vulnerabilities at key maritime routes, he noted.

"We must take measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance resilience," he said

Strengthening maritime supply chains involves a holistic approach combining technology, infrastructure improvements, strategic planning, risk management strategies and cross-border collaboration.

"We need to facilitate maritime connectivity, reduce the trade barriers," he said, adding that they also need to consider liberalisation of the visa regime, particularly easing visas and other administrative processes for the seafarers, ensuring facilities for them, as their roles are crucial in maintaining the maritime supply chain.

He said the Indian Ocean has historically been a region of great collaboration.

"The benefits of multilateral cooperation in maritime issues are likely to increase over time," Touhid said, adding that to ensure a resilient and improved shared future, it is essential for the countries in the Indian Ocean region to explore opportunities for mutual collaboration across all possible areas.

Each coastal nation should ensure that growth and prosperity in the Indian Ocean region, as well as the surrounding seas and bays, are built on mutual trust, respect.

All nations should understand the idea of equal interests, as all littoral states collaborate to develop together, he added.

"We also must prioritise conservation and the sustainable use of ocean and coastal resources to ensure that the use of these resources does not contribute to the decline in the health of oceanic and coastal environments," the foreign adviser said.​
 

Bangladeshis’ credit card spending drops in India
Staff Correspondent 16 February, 2025, 22:47

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A file photo shows a salesperson swiping credit card of a customer through a POS machine. | New Age photo

Credit card spending by Bangladeshis in India has been falling, while such expenditures in USA, Thailand and Singapore have been rising, according to central bank data.

Industry insiders attribute this shift to India’s restricted visa issuance, which has reduced the number of Bangladeshi patients and tourists visiting the country.

In December 2024, Bangladeshi credit card spending in India fell to Tk 40 crore from Tk 47.2 crore in November.

In contrast, Thailand and Singapore saw substantial increases.

Spending in Thailand reached Tk 64.8 crore in December, up from Tk 42 crore in September, making it the second-largest destination for Bangladeshi credit card transactions abroad.

Similarly, spending in Singapore rose to Tk 41.2 crore in December from Tk 30 crore in September.

Historically, India had been the top destination for Bangladeshi credit card spending abroad. From March 2023 to June 2024, India consistently held the top spot.

However, with the student quota reform protests in July—eventually turning into the movement that led to the fall of the Awami League-led government on August 5—the United States overtook India as the leading destination.

In July 2024, Bangladeshis spent Tk 79 crore in the USA, surpassing India’s Tk 73.2 crore.

By December 2024, the USA maintained the top position with Tk 74.3 crore in transactions, followed by Thailand (Tk 64.8 crore), Singapore (Tk 41.2 crore), and India (Tk 40 crore).

India’s share of total overseas credit card spending by Bangladeshis dropped from 19.95 per cent in December 2023 to just 8.13 per cent in December 2024.

India has traditionally been the most popular outbound destination for Bangladeshis, accounting for around 40 per cent of total travellers due to cultural ties, proximity, and easy visa access.

Following the political transition in August and the formation of the interim government, India scaled down its visa operations in Bangladesh, approving only medical and emergency cases under certain conditions.

As a result, many Bangladeshis seeking medical treatment or travel options have shifted to Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore.

Tourists who previously visited Kolkata are now opting Thailand, Singapore, and Nepal instead.

Meanwhile, domestic credit card transactions in Bangladesh rose by 15.10 per cent in December, reaching Tk 3,215 crore from Tk 2,793 crore in November.

International credit card transactions also increased by 13.98 per cent, amounting to Tk 491.5 crore in December compared to Tk 431.2 crore in November.

Additionally, transactions involving foreign-issued credit cards used within Bangladesh saw an 18.90 per cent rise, climbing to Tk 240.9 crore in December from Tk 202.6 crore in November.​
 
কলকাতায় বাংলাদেশি পর্যটকের অভাবে দুরাবস্থা (Kolkata businesses are facing severe hardship due to the absence of Bangladeshi tourists)

 

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