[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

[Saif]

Prospect of repatriating Rohingya refugees has dimmed further

Analysts interested in monitoring the continuing crisis in the Rakhine area in Myanmar consider that the evolving scenario is casting a long shadow on hopes of repatriation of Rohingya refugees. They have started suggesting that prospects for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar are dim

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Prospect of repatriating Rohingya refugees has dimmed further
Muhammad Zamir
Published :
Jan 19, 2025 21:42
Updated :
Jan 19, 2025 21:42​

Rohingya refugees sit on wooden benches of a navy vessel on their way to the Bhasan Char island in Noakhali district, Bangladesh, December 29, 2020 Photo : REUTERS

Myanmar consider that the evolving scenario is casting a long shadow on hopes of repatriation of Rohingya refugees. They have started suggesting that prospects for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar are dimming as the Rakhine state descends deeper into conflict and humanitarian crisis.

Some have also suggested that since July 2023, nearly 60,000 Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh amid acute food shortage, prolonged farming disruptions, and recruitment drives by the Arakan Army (AA). This ongoing turmoil is underscoring the escalating challenges facing both Myanmar and Bangladesh in addressing the plight of the stateless minority.

It is correct that the Bangladesh government has been officially opposing the accepting of new Rohingya arrivals and is also struggling to stem their flow of refugees but there is another continuing dimension which is exacerbating the situation. These new refugees are entering through unofficial routes. Corruption at the border is also aggravating the situation.

Foreign Adviser Md. Touhid Hossain has acknowledged the government's challenges on the border. It has also been noted that despite Dhaka's repeated calls for a sustainable resolution, conditions in Myanmar are moving in the opposite direction. With the Arakan Army nearing full control of Rakhine, the possibility of creating a safe and stable environment for Rohingyas to return is rapidly vanishing.

Bangladesh in the meantime has offered to provide support for rebuilding the Rakhine State economy, emphasising the importance of peace, stability, and democracy in Myanmar as a foundation for commencing the repatriation of forcibly displaced Rohingyas to their homeland. "Bangladesh has every interest to see lasting peace, stability and democracy in Myanmar, and a conducive environment in Rakhine State for the Rohingya to have confidence to go back there in safety and dignity", said Foreign Adviser Md. Touhid Hossain. He made this call when speaking at an Informal Consultation at the Ministerial level among Myanmar and its five neighbouring countries recently in Bangkok. The six-nation consultation was held in the third week of December, 2024 under the Chairmanship of the Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa. The meeting was also attended, among others, by the Myanmar Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe.

Touhid Hossain has also offered Bangladesh's assistance in rebuilding Rakhine's economy when the time is appropriate, reiterating Dhaka's call for a comprehensive roadmap for Rohingya repatriation, with stability in Rakhine as a priority. He has also urged ASEAN and other key regional actors to play a proactive role in restoring peace, security and democracy in Myanmar. The Bangladesh Foreign Adviser expressed concerns over the protracted Rohingya humanitarian situation. He also raised serious concerns over the ongoing armed conflicts along the border areas as well as transnational crimes, involving trafficking in persons, drugs and arms.

In this context, the Bangladesh Adviser also reiterated the three-point proposals made by the Interim Government Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus during the 79th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York in September 2024. In November, Bangladesh's determined lobbying resulted in the United Nations General Assembly adopting a Resolution calling for a "high-level Conference" in 2025. It was also observed that the Conference would contribute to "a comprehensive, innovative, concrete and time-bound plan for sustainable resolution of the crisis, including the voluntary, safe and dignified return of Rohingya Muslims to Myanmar", according to the Resolution. Both Bangladesh and Qatar were mentioned as potential venues for the conference, which the Bangladesh government said it expects to take place in September or October, 2025 with arrangements finalised by April.

Organisers of this Rohingya Conference, however, now face two immediate questions. First, how to define the scope of the conference? Second, how to ensure that the perspectives of the de facto authorities in Rakhine are reflected?

Estimates indicate that there are 2.8 million Rohingya around the world, of whom just 23 per cent remain in their home country of Myanmar - a vivid reminder of the decades of brutal oppression and discrimination. Aside from Myanmar, the four countries with the largest Rohingya populations are Bangladesh with 1.1 million, Pakistan with 400,000, Saudi Arabia 340,000 and Malaysia 210,000.

The situation of the Rohingya, however, differs between these countries. In Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, for example, most Rohingya arrived several decades ago and their children have never seen their homeland. MSF found that while 76 per cent Rohingyas who fled within the past five years wanted to return to Myanmar, this fell to just 28 per cent among those who have spent more than 20 years abroad. This suggests that solutions should be tailor-made and guided by the objectives of the 2018 Global Compact on Refugees, including easing pressure on host countries, enhancing refugee self-reliance, expanding access to third-country solutions, and supporting conditions in countries of origin for return in safety and dignity.

Given the Rohingya refugee burden Bangladesh has been shouldering since the 1970s, its demand for speedy and effective repatriation is understandable. The UN resolution is a welcome effort to ensure the Rohingya crisis remains a global priority. It is also notable because there is presently no credible international dialogue about the crisis.

The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic Rakhine armed group, has apparently hardened its grip over much of the state, further destabilising the region. Reports suggest the AA is also preparing to declare either independence or autonomy, intensifying clashes with other factions, including the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation. These developments, coupled with Myanmar's broader political upheaval, have rendered efforts to facilitate a dignified return for the Rohingya increasingly vain.

It needs to be recalled at this point that Bangladesh has been hosting nearly 1.2 million Rohingya refugees since the mass exodus triggered by a Myanmar military crackdown in 2017. Despite international pressure and periodic talks, progress on repatriation has been negligible. Observers are now arguing that without engaging the AA, now a crucial stakeholder in Rakhine, any meaningful resolution to the crisis remains unlikely. Some have also stressed that ignoring the AA's role in the region's power dynamics could promote failure rather than any success related to repatriation.

International Relations analyst Professor Imtiaz Ahmed has made some interesting observations about the evolving scenario. He has pointed out that it is crucial not only to establish communication with all ethnic groups in Myanmar but also understand that "the fragmented sovereignty within Myanmar has created a complex situation, and our security forces already have some connections with the ethnic minorities there. If we had engaged with the Arakan Army, the situation might have unfolded differently. Our communication should not be limited to the AA. We must build connections with other ethnic groups as well. These relationships do not necessarily have to be open; they can be developed through various discrete channels. The AA's control over a significant area is a reality that we must acknowledge. While key strategic points remain under Tatmadaw's control. Communication does not need to be confined to traditional diplomatic channels." He has also added that incentives should be offered to encourage the AA to facilitate the repatriation of Rohingyas.

There is also another dimension that needs to be remembered by the relevant authorities in their efforts to resolve the repatriation crisis. We are currently in an awkward position. We need to clearly understand that resolving this issue will be impossible without the involvement of China and India, as both nations have aligned interests in this matter.

There is also a different aspect that needs to be recognised. Inside Myanmar, over 400,000 Rohingyas remain in Rakhine-- many confined in 33 squalid internally displaced persons (IDP) camps. With farming disruptions now stretching into a second year, entire communities are being forced to abandon their homes. This has led to recruitment efforts by the Arakan Army targeting young people in rural villages, further compounding fears of a large-scale migration that would definitely perpetuate instability across the region.

References have also emerged about another perspective that needs to be carefully monitored. It relates to shifting from a state-centric approach. The Resolution and debate at the UN General Assembly reflected a traditional state-centric approach, one that assumes that in Myanmar a central government can shape political life in all its component parts. The multiple references to "Myanmar" appear to refer exclusively to the military regime. However, the SAC appears to have now lost control of much of the country. In Rakhine, it barely retains a toehold: following recent heavy losses and its authority is limited to the state capital Sittwe, the island of Munaung, and small sections of Kyaukphyu and Gwa townships - with the latter seemingly about to fall.

Consequently, we all have a difficult challenge ahead which needs to be overcome with great care.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar rebel group admits to beheadings

A Myanmar rebel group said on Friday its members beheaded two prisoners in a rare admission of deadly violence as it fights the ruling junta to maintain control of the country’s western borderlands.

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Myanmar rebel group admits to beheadings
Agence France-Presse . Yangon 25 January, 2025, 01:07

A Myanmar rebel group said on Friday its members beheaded two prisoners in a rare admission of deadly violence as it fights the ruling junta to maintain control of the country’s western borderlands.

The incident, which ‘violated military discipline’, occurred in February last year during an Arakan Army offensive on Kyauktaw township in Rakhine state, according to the militant group’s spokesman Khaing Thu Kha.

‘Our local AA militias were unable to control their anger and committed crimes... in retaliation for the terrorist Myanmar army soldiers who had unjustly arrested, tortured, and killed their families,’ he said.

In a two-minute clip that circulated on social media, around seven men — some wearing AA uniforms and holding firearms — kicked and beat two shirtless men on the ground.

In another video, the same alleged killers were seen beheading the captives with machete-like knives.

Khaing Thu Kha admitted on Friday that the videos were authentic and the perpetrators were members of the AA ethnic armed group.

Rakhine state in Myanmar’s west is riven with ethnic and religious divisions.

It came under the global spotlight after a bloody 2017 army crackdown that forced some 7,40,000 Rohingya Muslims over the border into Bangladesh.

The military junta took control of the country in a 2021 coup against the democratically elected Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government.

The AA says it is fighting for more autonomy for the ethnic Rakhine people, a population that is also accused of aiding the military in their expulsion of the Rohingya.

The militant group claimed complete control of a key region along the Bangladesh border in December, piling further pressure on the junta battling opponents elsewhere across the country.

The human rights organisation Fortify Rights has called on the International Criminal Court to investigate war crimes committed by the AA in connection with the beheadings, in a report published Thursday.

Khaing Thu Kha said the AA had identified and punished all those involved in the incident and added the group did not accept unlawful killings.​

 

[Saif]

Addressing Rohingya crisis: New Canadian envoy assures support

The assurance came when he called on Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain at the foreign ministry today

www.thedailystar.net

Addressing Rohingya crisis: New Canadian envoy assures support

Photo: PID

Newly-appointed Canadian High Commissioner Ajit Singh has assured maximum support to Bangladesh in addressing the Rohingya crisis as well as ease visas for the Bangladeshi students.

The assurance came when he called on Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain at the foreign ministry today.

According to a foreign ministry statement, they had discussions on key issues, including agricultural cooperation, trade and investment, financial sector, and Rohingya crisis.

The foreign adviser mentioned the daunting challenges faced by Bangladesh in hosting around 1.3 million Rohingyas in Bangladesh and sought international cooperation including Canada's strong support for their sustainable return to their homeland.

He also requested expedited processing of Canadian visas for Bangladeshi nationals, with particular emphasis on student visas.

"The High Commissioner noted these concerns and assured maximum support in addressing them," the statement said.​

 

[Saif]

Rohingya crisis: a call for shared responsibility and lasting solutions

The Rohingya crisis has become an enduring humanitarian disaster, with renewed violence in Myanmar forcing nearly 80,000 more refugees to seek shelter in Bangladesh since August last year

www.thedailystar.net

Rohingya crisis: a call for shared responsibility and lasting solutions

Reuters file photo

The Rohingya crisis has become an enduring humanitarian disaster, with renewed violence in Myanmar forcing nearly 80,000 more refugees to seek shelter in Bangladesh since August last year.

This has further strained the already overstretched resources of Cox's Bazar, home to over 1.2 million displaced Rohingyas. This burden cannot remain the sole responsibility of one nation. The international community must act decisively to address the root causes of this crisis and support Bangladesh in its efforts to manage it.

Bangladesh, despite its limited resources, has demonstrated immense compassion by sheltering such a vast number of refugees. However, this has come at a significant cost. The Rohingya camps are overwhelmed, with living conditions deteriorating and gender-based violence escalating. The study by the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies and the Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit, published in The Daily Star on January 26, depicts a grisly picture of widespread insecurity, forced marriages, and psychological trauma within the camps. The growing involvement of armed groups like ARSA, RSO, and the Arakan Army further exacerbates the crisis, with thousands of young men forcibly recruited.

Moreover, the refugees' reliance on informal labour, such as salt cultivation and deep-sea fishing, underscores the inadequacy of the daily allowance they receive. While these activities offer a semblance of livelihood, they expose refugees to exploitation and unsafe working conditions, adding another layer of vulnerability to their plight.

The Rohingya crisis is not merely a regional issue -- it is a global humanitarian challenge. Yet, international support has been insufficient and fragmented. While countries like Malaysia and China have engaged diplomatically, their efforts need to be more robust and result-oriented.

A multi-pronged approach is essential to address the crisis. Firstly, global actors must intensify diplomatic efforts to ensure Myanmar creates conditions conducive to the safe and dignified repatriation of Rohingyas. This includes holding the Myanmar government accountable for the human rights abuses that have led to this exodus.

Secondly, the international community must provide more financial and technical support to Bangladesh. Thirdly, addressing gender-based violence should be a priority. Establishing community-led programmes that challenge patriarchal norms and provide psychological support, legal aid, and rehabilitation for survivors of violence can create safer environments in the camps.

Finally, regional diplomacy must take centre stage. The UN and other global bodies should lead peacebuilding efforts in Myanmar, focusing on restoring governance and preventing further displacement.

Bangladesh cannot continue to bear this burden alone. As Women and Children's Affairs Adviser Sharmeen S Murshid rightly noted, this is not just another humanitarian crisis -- it is a cycle of violence rooted in decades of instability. To break this cycle, the world must act collectively and decisively.​

 

[Saif]

Fresh Rohingya influx will deteriorate the refugee crisis

World leaders must address renewed concerns over funding

www.thedailystar.net

Fresh Rohingya influx will deteriorate the refugee crisis
World leaders must address renewed concerns over funding

VISUAL: STAR

It's alarming to learn that renewed violence in Myanmar has forced around 80,000 more Rohingyas to take shelter in Bangladesh since August last year, adding to the staggering 1.2 million already rising here. This has been revealed by a study conducted by the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC) and the Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU). It goes without saying that the fresh influx puts Bangladesh in a particularly tight spot, as it finds itself scrambling to not just address the challenges festering within the overcrowded camps but also to handle the pressure of new arrivals amid renewed concerns over funding sparked by the policy shift under the new president of the United States—the largest donor for the Rohingya refugees.

Funding shortages have been a persistent issue since nearly a million refugees entered Bangladesh in 2017, with each passing year widening the gap between funding requirements and provisions. For example, the total funding requirement in 2024 was $852.4 million, but donors provided only $548.9 million. Since 2017, the US has provided nearly $2 billion in humanitarian assistance. However, with the recent suspension of US funding for development projects in Bangladesh for at least three months, there is uncertainty about how this will affect Rohingya funding and whether previous commitments will be honoured. The declining donor support in recent years speaks volumes about the international community's waning attention to the crisis, leaving critical services underfunded. The World Food Programme, for instance, has had to repeatedly cut rations due to funding shortfalls, pushing refugees further into desperation.

With such uncertainties around, the state of the camps is likely to worsen. The RMMRU study paints a grim picture of living conditions, gender-based violence, and security concerns in these camps. With each refugee receiving a meagre allowance of Tk 16 per day, many have been forced into informal labour or criminal activities. The crisis is further illustrated by escalating gender-based violence, with physical assault, sexual abuse, forced marriages, and severe psychological trauma becoming commonplace. There have also been reports of increasing militarisation with armed groups, including ARSA, RSO, and the Arakan Army, forcibly conscripting young men. One estimate suggests that between 3,000 and 5,000 were recruited in the first half of 2024 alone.

This is not a burden that Bangladesh should be expected to bear alone. Bangladesh has repeatedly urged the international community to take meaningful action to resolve the Rohingya crisis so that these displaced individuals can return to their homeland. Their safe repatriation to Myanmar remains the only sustainable solution. We, therefore, urge world leaders to step up efforts to resolve the crisis, and increase funding while such efforts are underway. At the same time, Bangladesh does have a responsibility to ensure that Rohingya refugees within our borders are protected. It must work to improve conditions in the camps. It also must take decisive action to address the reality of new arrivals.​

 

[Saif]

Geopolitics rewritten: The Arakan Army’s unprecedented rise

After decades of centralised military control, the AA has shifted Rakhine’s power dynamics, emerging as the de facto authority.

www.thedailystar.net

Geopolitics rewritten: The Arakan Army’s unprecedented rise

Rohingya refugees gather behind a barbed-wire fence in a temporary settlement set up in a "no man's land" border zone between Myanmar and Bangladesh. PHOTO: AFP

The rise of the Arakan Army (AA) in Myanmar's Rakhine State marks a historic shift in South and Southeast Asian geopolitics, redefining regional power and security. Between October and December 2024, the AA seized over 80 percent of Rakhine State, including its 271 km border with Bangladesh—a rare instance of a non-state actor controlling an international border. The seizure of the regime's Western Command headquarters in Ann town, after the fall of Maungdaw, represents a territorial as well as strategic reshuffling that undermines the military junta's grip on power and raises fundamental issues for the region.

The shifting power dynamics

After decades of centralised military control, the AA has shifted Rakhine's power dynamics, emerging as the de facto authority. In particular, the past 15 to 16 months have seen the AA transform dramatically, seizing dozens of townships and army outposts, culminating in the seizing of Western Command headquarters in Ann town—marking a serious blow to the legitimacy of the military junta.

There are various reasons behind the group's success. Its military capabilities have increased tremendously and it can now mount effective operations against well-entrenched military positions. However, the AA has shown a level of military sophistication beyond that of many other armed organisations in Myanmar, proving its ability to capture and hold territory. Its capability to coordinate operations with allies in the Three Brotherhood Alliance was particularly evident as these forces secured important areas on multiple fronts.

Politically, the AA, as the United League of Arakan's (ULA) military wing, has established parallel governance in the areas it controls. It demonstrates a deep understanding of the need to synthesise military victories with political legitimacy, as seen in its efforts to weave a governance framework that includes both Buddhist Rakhine and Muslim populations. The junta's loss of control in Rakhine State is the second regional military command to fall under the control of ethnic rebels in five months. The loss of the Western Command headquarters alone could signal the start of a domino effect, further weakening the military's grip on power.

The Rohingya question

With more than one million Rohingya currently in Bangladesh, the issue of their return and future status under AA control has become a major regional concern. The AA leadership—particularly through its political wing, the ULA—has outlined a vision of Rakhine that includes both Buddhist and Muslim populations, such as the Rohingya. This marks a significant departure from Myanmar's historically exclusionary stance. However, this position must be viewed in the context of the AA's historically troubled relationship with the Rohingya community, whatever form that relationship has taken in the past.

Complicating matters are reports that both the AA and the Myanmar military recruit Rohingya for their respective causes. This exploitation of the vulnerable community raises questions about the AA's true commitment to Rohingya rights and inclusion. Some analysts argue that elements of the AA's vision of an "Arakan Dream" are influenced by Burmese nationalist discourse, which could potentially erase evidence of the Rohingya's presence.

The refugee crisis remains a major regional challenge, particularly for Bangladesh, which now hosts the bulk of Rohingya refugees. The AA's new control over the border region introduces new variables into potential repatriation efforts. While the AA's claimed willingness to accept Rohingya return offers some hope, any repatriation programme would face significant challenges without guarantees of citizenship rights, security, and economic integration.

The great power game

With its control over Rakhine State, the AA has introduced a new dimension to the great power contest between China and India in the region. Rakhine is vital to China's $1.5 billion investment in oil and gas pipelines to Kunming and its Belt and Road Initiative in the region. These investments, including a $2.5 billion oil and gas pipeline project, a $7.3 billion port project at Kyaukphyu, and a $2.7 billion special economic zone (SEZ), are critical for reducing China's dependence on energy imports via the Malacca Strait.

In retrospect, China has enjoyed a close relationship with Myanmar's military junta and is its principal trade partner and biggest weapons supplier, but the ground reality has compelled it to move with a more nuanced attitude. Recent developments show that Chinese officials have been having talks with the AA's allies in an attempt to broker ceasefires, indicating a pragmatic accommodation with shifting relative power.

India's strategic interests in the region are equally significant but differ in focus. The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport and Transit Project (KMTTP) represents India's major strategic investment in establishing connectivity between Kolkata, Sittwe port, and India's northeastern states via Mizoram. India's Act East policy has traditionally relied on ties with Myanmar's military but is now compelled to consider engaging with the AA to safeguard its strategic interests in the face of shifting ground realities.

Bangladesh's strategic dilemma

With the AA in control of their shared 271-kilometer border, Bangladesh faces an unprecedented diplomatic and security challenge. Over the past few months, Bangladeshi security experts and former diplomats have increasingly called for engagement with the AA, given the new reality on the ground. Former defence attaché to Myanmar, Major General (Retd) Md Shahidul Haque, stated that engagement with the AA would be a "win-win situation" for Bangladesh, both from security and economic perspectives. This perspective reflects a growing sense within Bangladesh's security establishment that traditional diplomatic approaches may need reconsideration.

Nevertheless, Bangladesh's foreign ministry spokesperson Mohammed Rafiqul Alam and others have reiterated the country's official position of not working with non-state actors, stating that relevant ministry departments would take appropriate action. While engagement with the AA could address border security concerns and facilitate Rohingya repatriation, it might also complicate Bangladesh's relations with Myanmar's central government and other regional powers.

The battle for infrastructure control

The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project in India has been thrown off its course due to the changing security landscape. How the group stands in respect to this project will play an important role in India's strategic position in the region. Because of the AA's influence over maritime traffic and potential development projects in the Bay of Bengal coastline, its position along the Bay of Bengal shoreline is vital.

Also, the case of Kyaukphyu is particularly evident as the terminus for China's strategic oil and gas pipelines. Security expert Ye Myo Hein of the US Institute of Peace said the AA theoretically could launch a military campaign to seize Kyaukphyu, it appears to be employing a more calculated strategy, leveraging its control as a bargaining chip in broader regional negotiations.

The rise of the AA in Rakhine State demonstrates that non-state actors can reshape regional dynamics in ways that compel traditional power structures to adapt. It is worth recalling that the regional security architecture is not static, but evolves itself to the new power configurations. The future of South and Southeast Asian security will depend, in part, on how regional stakeholders navigate these changes while striving to preserve stability.

Kawsar Uddin Mahmud is a geopolitical analyst and a researcher at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs.​

 

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FOUR YEARS SINCE COUP: UN probe warns Myanmar violence may worsen

UN investigators said on Thursday that serious international crimes had been committed in the four years since Myanmar’s military coup, warning this would only worsen unless the perpetrators faced justice...

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FOUR YEARS SINCE COUP: UN probe warns Myanmar violence may worsen
Agence France-Presse . Geneva 30 January, 2025, 23:56

UN investigators said on Thursday that serious international crimes had been committed in the four years since Myanmar’s military coup, warning this would only worsen unless the perpetrators faced justice.

Nicholas Koumjian, head of the United Nations’ Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar, said impunity was emboldening the perpetrators to commit further violence.

Myanmar’s ruling junta seized power in a February 1, 2021 coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government, ending a 10-year experiment with democracy and plunging the Southeast Asian nation into bloody turmoil and a humanitarian crisis.

‘Since then, according to substantial evidence collected and analysed by the IIMM, serious international crimes have been committed across the country,’ Koumjian said in a statement.

Myanmar has been rocked by fighting between numerous ethnic rebel groups and the army. The civil war has displaced more than 3.5 million, according to the UN.

‘Protests against the military regime were suppressed with often lethal violence. Thousands of perceived opponents have been unlawfully imprisoned, where many have suffered torture, sexual violence and other abuses,’ said Koumjian.

‘Increasingly frequent and indiscriminate air strikes, artillery and drone attacks have killed civilians, driven survivors from their homes, and destroyed hospitals, schools and places of worship.’

He said that while most of the evidence collected so far concerned crimes committed by the military, investigators were also probing ‘disturbing’ reports of atrocities committed by other armed groups, including rape, killings and torture.

The IIMM was established by the UN Human Rights Council in 2018 to collect evidence of the most serious international crimes and prepare files for criminal prosecution.

In November, the International Criminal Court’s prosecutor requested an arrest warrant for junta chief Min Aung Hlaing for alleged crimes committed against the Rohingya minority during clearance operations in 2016 and 2017.

There are no judicial proceedings under way for any serious international crimes committed since the military takeover, said Koumjian.

‘We believe that impunity for crimes emboldens perpetrators to commit more violence, and ending this impunity is necessary,’ he said.

‘The mechanism stands ready to assist authorities who are willing and able to investigate and prosecute these cases. Until the perpetrators are brought to justice, violence will continue to spiral.’

The UN estimates that 19.9 million people, or more than a third of Myanmar’s population, will need humanitarian aid in 2025.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar junta extends state of emergency

Myanmar’s junta extended a state of emergency by six months on Friday, four years after it seized power triggering a civil war that has claimed thousands of lives.

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Myanmar junta extends state of emergency
Agence France-Presse . Yangon 01 February, 2025, 01:21

Myanmar’s junta extended a state of emergency by six months on Friday, four years after it seized power triggering a civil war that has claimed thousands of lives.

The country is mired in a bloody, multi-sided conflict stemming from the February 1, 2021 putsch that ended a 10-year experiment with democracy.

The military is struggling to contain armed resistance to its rule, suffering a series of damaging battlefield losses over the past year to an alliance of ethnic minority armed groups in the north and west of the country.

The ruling military council headed by army chief Min Aung Hlaing unanimously approved the extension, the junta’s information team said in a statement.

‘All members of National Defence and Security Council including the commander in chief as well as acting president decided in unison for the extension of the state of emergency for another six months,’ the statement said.

Elections cannot be held under a state of emergency, so long-promised polls the junta has said will be held in 2025 will not take place until the second half of the year at the earliest.

Min Aung Hlaing told the ruling council that ‘peace and stability is still needed’ before the state of emergency can be lifted and polls held.

Critics and Western governments have said that any elections held under the auspices of the junta will be neither free nor fair.

The military seized power after making unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in 2020 elections which Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won in a landslide.

It has extended the state of emergency multiple times since as it battles established ethnic minority armed groups and newer pro-democracy ‘People’s Defence Forces’.

More than 6,000 civilians have been killed since the coup, and more than 20,000 arrested, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners onitoring group.

On Thursday the UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar said serious international crimes had been committed in the four years since the coup.

The conflict has forced more than 3.5 million people to flee their homes, while an estimated 19.9 million people — or more than a third of Myanmar’s population — will need humanitarian aid in 2025, according to the UN.

Earlier this month, foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations regional bloc urged the junta to prioritise a ceasefire in the conflict over holding elections.

ASEAN has led international efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis but, despite multiple meetings and declarations, has made no substantial progress.​