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[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

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Myanmar briefs neighbours on election plans
Agence France-Presse . Bangkok, Thailand 21 December, 2024, 04:58

Myanmar’s junta-appointed foreign minister briefed officials from five neighbouring countries on the military’s repeatedly delayed plans to hold elections, Thailand’s foreign minister said on Thursday.

The Myanmar military seized power in 2021, making unsubstantiated claims of massive electoral fraud in 2020 polls won resoundingly by the Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy.

It has since unleashed a bloody crackdown on dissent and as fighting ravages swathes of the country has repeatedly delayed plans for fresh polls that critics say will be neither free nor fair.

Junta-appointed foreign minister Than Swe met diplomats from China, India, Bangladesh, Laos and Thailand for an ‘informal consultation’, Thai foreign ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balankura told reporters.

Myanmar ‘outlined very broadly that progress is being made towards an election’ in 2025, he said, adding that no details, including an exact date, were discussed.

The talks in Bangkok were hosted by Thai foreign minister Maris Sangiampongsa and come a day ahead of informal talks on Myanmar hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, has made little progress towards resolving the Myanmar crisis.

Thailand, which regularly hosts thousands of people fleeing the conflict, has held its own bilateral talks with Myanmar’s junta leaders.

In 2023 its then foreign minister also said he had met briefly with Suu Kyi, who has been in military custody since the coup.

The junta has several times pushed back a timetable for fresh polls as it struggles to crush widespread opposition to its rule from ethnic rebel groups and pro-democracy ‘People’s Defence Forces.

In 2022, the junta-stacked election commission announced that Suu Kyi’s NLD would be dissolved for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law.

China, the junta’s most important ally, has grown increasingly alarmed at the conflict on its doorstep and in October called for a ‘reconciliation led by all people of Myanmar’.

Earlier this year, its foreign minister said Beijing backed the junta’s plans for polls.

The United States has said any elections under the junta would be a ‘sham’, while analysts say polls would be targeted by the military's opponents and spark further bloodshed.​
 

Dhaka wants to see democracy in Myanmar
Both Bangladesh and India also talked about extending support to the South Asian neighbouring country in this regard, if necessary
Diplomatic Correspondent
Dhaka
Updated: 20 Dec 2024, 16: 03


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This handout picture taken and released by Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 19 December 2024 shows (L-R) Foreign Secretary of the Republic of India Vikram Misri, Foreign Affairs Minister of Bangladesh Md. Touhid Hossain, Deputy Prime Minister and Union Minister for Foreign Affairs of Myanmar Than Swe, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Thailand Maris Sangiampongsa, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Lao PDR Thongsavanh Phomvihane and Vice Foreign Minister of China Sun Weidong posing for a group photo during a six-nation regional meeting in Bangkok AFP

The Rohingya people who have taken shelter in Bangladesh want a conducive environment in Rakhine state in Myanmar so that they could return to their homeland with safety and dignity. That is why Bangladesh wants to see a sustainable peace, stability and democracy in the neighbouring country.

Dhaka also has called for a roadmap to ensure repatriation of Rohingya people in Rakhine.

Bangladesh foreign adviser Md Touhid Hossain highlighted the position of Bangladesh on the future of Myanmar and Rohingya repatriation at an informal meeting in Bangkok of Thailand on Thursday.

Diplomatic sources from Bangkok and Dhaka informed Prothom Alo that alongside Bangladesh, India also put emphasis on democratic transition of Myanmar in the meeting that was organised at the initiative of Thailand foreign minister Maris Sangiampongsa.

Both Bangladesh and India also talked about extending support to the South Asian neighbouring country in this regard, if necessary.

Thailand also discussed urging all sides of Myanmar to return to democracy through holding elections.

Myanmar deputy prime minister and foreign minister Than Swe mentioned about organising elections by 2025 by the military government led by senior General Min Aung Hlaing. He, however, did not say anything about the roadmap.

Than Swe stated in the meeting that the incumbent Myanmar government is hopeful of holding an election next year. But he expressed doubts whether the election could be organised with everyone’s participation or not.

Bangladesh, India, Thailand and Laos joined the discussion, organised by Thailand, on the ensuing law and order situation in Myanmar and the country’s future.

Before joining the six-nation discussion, foreign adviser Touhid Hossain attended a bilateral meeting with Myanmar foreign minister Than Swe.

A source from Bangkok informed Prothom Alo that the one-hour-long meeting discussed various bilateral issues, including Rohingya repatriation, where both sides agreed to take the relationship forward.

They also agreed to work together in the light of the memorandum of understanding the two countries signed in November 2017 to resolve the Rohingya crisis. During the discussion, the Myanmar foreign minister reiterated his country’s goodwill to resolve the crisis surrounding Rohingya repatriation.

At that time, Touhid Hossain told him that the precondition for repatriation of Rohingya is to create a conducive environment in the Rakhine state. Myanmar has to create such an environment in the state so that the Rohingya people return to their homeland voluntarily. But currently the environment there is not conducive as the Arakan Army has taken control there. That is why the first task of the Myanmar government is to make Rakhine safe.

Six countries discussion

Speaking at the six-country meeting, Touhid Hossain said that another 60,000 Rohingya people crossed the border into Bangladesh in the last few months. That means, the Rohingya situation is worrying.

He also expressed grave concerns about the ensuing armed violence along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and various types of crimes regarding arms and drugs. He reiterated the call for a roadmap to Rohingya repatriation to ensure stability in the Rakhine state.

Touhid requested the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other major players of the region to play more active roles for peace, security and democracy in Myanmar. He also extended help from the Bangladesh side for economic reconstitution of Rakhine state and in other necessary spheres.

Touhid Hossain once again put emphasis on the three-point proposals chief adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus made in his address to the UN General Assembly in September this year.

He also stressed on sharing intelligence information among the law enforcement agencies and border guards to curb transborder crimes.

In the meeting, Myanmar foreign minister Than Swe mentioned about his government’s attempt to create a conducive environment for elections in the country in 2025.

Alleging that transborder criminals have been stoking armed violence in his country, Swe mentioned Myanmar government’s initiatives to bring such crimes under control.

He also spoke about his government’s initiatives to repatriate the Rohingya people.

China’s deputy minister for foreign affairs and India’s foreign secretary reasserted their support to the peace initiatives taken by Myanmar for regional security and development.

Both the countries informed the meeting about their initiatives for dialogues among various stakeholders of Myanmar and said they have been helping find a common ground for an inclusive and stable system in the country.

Thailand's foreign minister emphasised forming an informal forum like this discussion.​
 

Rebels ‘capture junta western command in Rakhine state’

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A Myanmar ethnic rebel group has captured a military regional command in Rakhine state, it said, in what would be a major blow to the junta.

The Arakan Army (AA) had "completely captured" the western regional command at Ann on Friday after weeks of fighting, the group said in a statement on its Telegram channel.

Ann would be the second regional military command to fall to ethnic rebels in five months, and a huge blow to the military.

Myanmar's military has 14 regional commands across the country with many of them currently fighting established ethnic rebel groups or newer "People's Defence Forces" that have sprung up to battle the military's 2021 coup.

Fighting has rocked Rakhine state since the AA attacked security forces in November last year, ending a ceasefire that had largely held since the putsch.

AA fighters have seized swathes of territory in the state that is home to China and India-backed port projects and all but cut off state capital Sittwe.

The AA posted photos of a man whom it said was the Ann deputy regional commander, in the custody of its fighters.

AFP was unable to confirm that information and has contacted the AA's spokesman for comment.

AFP was unable to reach people on the ground around Ann where internet and phone services are patchy.

In decades of on-off fighting since independence from Britain in 1948 the military had never lost a regional military command until last August, when the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) captured the northeastern command in Lashio in Shan state.

Myanmar's borderlands are home to myriad ethnic armed groups who have battled the military since independence for autonomy and control of lucrative resources.

Last month the UN warned Rakhine state was heading towards famine, as ongoing clashes squeeze commerce and agricultural production.

"Rakhine's economy has stopped functioning," the report from the UN Development Programme said, projecting "famine conditions by mid-2025" if current levels of food insecurity were left unaddressed.​
 

Conflict in Rakhine: Dhaka cannot engage with non-state actors
Says Touhid

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Photo: AFP

Bangladesh has called on Myanmar to address the ongoing crisis in the Rakhine state and its borders, stressing that it cannot engage in negotiations with non-state actors, such as the Arakan Army.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held on Thursday in Thailand.

During the meeting, Touhid also emphasised that peace and stability in the region would remain elusive without a resolution to the Rohingya crisis.

Senior representatives from Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, China, Laos, and other nations attended the consultation focused on Myanmar.

"I informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under your control. Non-state actors like the Arakan Army are controlling it. As a state, we cannot engage with them. Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine," Touhid yesterday told reporters in the capital, sharing details of his discussions at the consultation.

In reply, Myanmar said they are trying to regain control of the border.

Touhid said that the meeting focused on a few key issues regarding Myanmar, including the border, drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and its political future.

On Myanmar's political future, Touhid noted that all participants expressed support for its efforts to resolve internal issues and move forward.

"Everyone said they would support Myanmar, and if they choose a federal structure, we will not intervene. But we want a resolution," Touhid said.

The meeting on Thursday was chaired by Thailand's Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsar. The attendees included Myanmar's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe, Laos's Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, and China's Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.

Meanwhile, speaking as the chief guest at an international seminar in Dhaka yesterday, the foreign adviser said peace in Myanmar is crucial to unlocking the full potential of the Bay of Bengal and its surrounding countries and that peace cannot be achieved without solving the Rohingya crisis.

"Peace and order will not be possible in Myanmar, and consequently in the region, unless the safe and secure return of Rohingyas to their homes," he said at the seminar titled "Reconnecting the Bay of Bengal Region: Exploring the Convergence of Interest," at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) in the capital.

Noting that a civil war situation is currently prevailing in Myanmar, he said at least 1.2 million Rohingyas, who have fled the Rakhine state facing extreme atrocities, have fled to Bangladesh in the last seven years.

"There has been no progress in their repatriation and the situation is further complicated by a non-state actor, the Arakan Army, taking control of the entire border with Bangladesh," he said.

"It is on Myanmar and the regional powers to create a congenial atmosphere for their return," said the foreign adviser.

Supported by the Embassy of Japan, the BIISS, in collaboration with the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), hosted the international seminar.

He said that the Bay of Bengal has emerged as a focal point of geopolitical and economic activity with its vast natural resources, crucial shipping routes, and potential for economic integration.

Touhid said the countries surrounding the Bay and other stakeholders should align their diverse interests, "ensuring that the Bay of Bengal becomes a region of collaboration rather than conflict; a hub of connectivity rather than contention".

He said Bangladesh is uniquely poised to become a regional transit hub and a key player in the global value chain with its strategic location and growing industrial base.

"In order to unlock these possibilities, Bangladesh must address pressing challenges and seize emerging opportunities," the adviser said.

He acknowledged that initiatives like the "Bay of Bengal Industrial Value Chain," championed by Japan, provide a blueprint for achieving this transformation by leveraging investment, technology, and labour.

The adviser also lauded Japan's overall contribution to Bangladesh's development.

Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Iwama Kiminori, BIISS Chairman Gousal Azam Sarkar and Director General Major General Iftekhar Anis, among others, spoke at the event.

Responding to a question about a potential new influx of Rohingyas, Touhid said, though the government is concerned, he does not believe such an event is on the cards.​
 

Bangladesh presses Myanmar to resolve border issue
Published :
Dec 22, 2024 17:20
Updated :
Dec 22, 2024 17:20

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Bangladesh has called on Myanmar to address the ongoing border and Rakhine issues, stressing that it cannot engage in negotiations with non-state actors, such as the Arakan Army, over control of the border.

Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held on Thursday in Thailand.

Senior representatives from Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, China, Laos, and other nations attended the consultation, BSS reports.

"I informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under your control. It is now controlled by non-state actors like the Arakan Army. As a state, we cannot engage with them. Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine," Hossain told reporters, sharing details of his discussions at the informal consultation.

He said, in reply, Myanmar informed him that they are trying to take over control of the border to resolve the issue.

Hossain reaffirmed Bangladesh’s policy of not allowing any further Rohingya refugees to enter the country.

However, he acknowledged that, under certain circumstances, Bangladesh had been compelled to accept 60,000 Rohingyas through various unofficial routes.

He also highlighted widespread corruption at the border, which facilitates the entry of Rohingyas.

"They are not entering through a single route; they are coming through multiple routes, making it very difficult to stop," Hossain said.

Responding to a question about a potential new influx of Rohingyas, Hossain dismissed these fears.

"I do not believe another influx will occur, although many are concerned. We too share these concerns, but we must take measures to prevent it, working with the international community," he said.

The meeting in Thailand on Thursday was chaired by Thailand's Foreign Minister, Maris Sangiampongsar, and included Myanmar's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe, Laos's Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, and China's Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.

Bangladesh was represented by Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain.

Hossain mentioned that the meeting focused on three main issues: the border, drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and Myanmar’s political future.

During the meeting, Hossain emphasised that peace and stability in the region would remain elusive without a resolution to the Rohingya crisis.

"Criminals are present on both sides of the border and in the camps, and I highlighted these concerns," he added.

On Myanmar's political future, Hossain noted that all participants expressed support for Myanmar’s efforts to resolve its internal issues and move forward.

“Everyone said they would support Myanmar, and if they choose a federal structure, we will not intervene. But we want a resolution," Hossain said.

Regarding border issues, the adviser explained that the discussions mainly focused on the northeastern and southern borders, with particular attention given to the western border, where Bangladesh has strategic interests.

Concerns were also raised about the rise of scam centres engaged in internet crimes, which have been troubling Myanmar, along with ongoing issues such as drug trafficking and border-related criminal activities.

Representatives from other countries urged Myanmar to take appropriate measures to address these concerns.​
 

Bangladesh must stay vigilant amid growing Myanmar crisis
The situation is becoming increasingly complex

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VISUAL: STAR

The ongoing conflict in Myanmar between the military junta, the Arakan Army, and other rebel groups has thrown up yet another curveball for Bangladesh. The Arakan Army recently claimed to have captured the last Myanmar army outpost in the strategic western town of Maungdaw, thereby gaining full control of the 271-kilometre-long border with Bangladesh. In light of this development, Bangladesh has urged Myanmar to address the ongoing crisis in Rakhine State and along its borders, emphasising that it cannot negotiate with non-state actors like the Arakan Army.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held in Thailand on December 19. He also stressed that peace and stability in the region would remain unattainable without resolving the Rohingya crisis, which necessitates their safe and secure repatriation to Myanmar. According to the foreign adviser, at least 1.2 million Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh over the past seven years due to Myanmar's civil war and the persecution of Rohingyas. Moreover, Bangladesh recently had to accept over 60,000 additional Rohingyas through various unofficial channels, despite its decision to prohibit new arrivals. This has been attributed to corruption at the border, which has left the Bangladesh government with limited options.

Bangladesh recently had to accept over 60,000 additional Rohingyas through various unofficial channels, despite its decision to prohibit new arrivals. This has been attributed to corruption at the border, which has left the Bangladesh government with limited options.

Clearly, the situation is becoming increasingly complex and concerning for Bangladesh. Corruption along the border, facilitating the influx of Rohingyas and potentially fuelling drug, weapon, and human trafficking, poses a growing security threat. Therefore, it is imperative for the government to address these issues urgently before they escalate further. Moreover, given the current border situation, progress in the Rohingya repatriation process has completely stalled. But how long can Bangladesh continue to provide shelter to them, especially with foreign aid to support Rohingyas steadily dwindling in recent years? The economic, environmental, and social burdens Bangladesh is shouldering to accommodate the Rohingyas are becoming more unsustainable by the day. The potential for further destabilisation, both for Bangladesh and the broader region, continues to grow because of the conflict.

The recent escalation of violence in Rakhine has again raised fears of a revival of organised violence against members of the Muslim Rohingya minority community, similar to that which drove huge numbers of them to flee to Bangladesh in 2017. Under these circumstances, Bangladesh must be extra vigilant about securing its border with Myanmar. At the same time, with the aid of the international community, the government should persuade the Myanmar junta and the various rebel factions to reach a peaceful resolution through dialogue for the sake of restoring regional stability.​
 

Bangladesh reaffirms to stop further infiltration as conflicts in Myanmar escalate
FE ONLINE DESK
Published :
Dec 24, 2024 22:14
Updated :
Dec 24, 2024 22:14

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Amid escalating conflicts in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, Bangladesh on Tuesday reiterated that it would take all necessary steps to ensure required security along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and stop further infiltration into Bangladesh.

“Bangladesh will do whatever is necessary for its securing its border. All relevant agencies of the Bangladesh government, including the BGB (Border Guard Bangladesh), are on the highest and appropriate alert in this regard to prevent new infiltration into Bangladesh,” spokesperson at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mohammad Rafiqul Alam told reporters at its weekly briefing.

On December 8, he said, the Arakan Army captured Maungdaw city in Rakhine State, taking control of 13 out of 17 cities, reports UNB.

Responding to a question, Rafiqul Alam said it is difficult to say how many people are waiting on the other side of the border.

Bangladesh informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under their control; rather it is now controlled by non-state actors like the Arakan Army.

As a state, Bangladesh says, it cannot engage with a non-state actor and Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine.

Bangladesh renewed the call for a "comprehensive roadmap" for Rohingya repatriation with priority attached to ensuring stability in Rakhine State.

On Sunday, Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain said Bangladesh had to accept over 60,000 Rohingyas under certain circumstances through various unofficial channels, including border-related corruption, despite its decision in principle not to allow any new arrivals from Myanmar.

“We had a position in principle that no new arrival one will be allowed. No one was allowed formally. Another thing we need to keep in mind is that there is huge corruption at the border. And it is true,” he said while talking to reporters at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on his recent informal consultation at the ministerial level among Myanmar and its five neighbouring countries.

The six-nation consultation was held in Bangkok on Thursday under the chairmanship of the Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa.

The meeting was attended, among others, by Myanmar Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Than Swe.

Responding to a question, Hossain said the Rohingyas are not entering Bangladesh through a single route; they are coming through multiple routes, making it very difficult to stop.

Asked about a potential new influx of Rohingya refugees, he dismissed such possibilities. "I do not believe another influx will occur, although many are concerned. We too share these concerns, but we must take measures to prevent it, working with the international community," Hossain said.

Bangladesh is aware of the civil war situation currently prevailing in Myanmar, and the 1.2 million Rohingyas who were forcibly displaced from the Rakhine state under extreme atrocities, and are sheltered in Bangladesh for the last 7 plus years.

There has been no progress in their repatriation and the situation is further complicated by a non-state actor, the Arakan Army taking control of the entire border with Bangladesh, Adviser Hossain said.

Referring to his meeting in Bangkok, the Foreign Adviser said, "I told them in no uncertain terms that peace and order will not be possible in Myanmar, and consequently in the region, unless the Rohingyas lodged in Myanmar can go back to their homes with security and rights."

"It is incumbent on Myanmar and the regional powers to create a congenial atmosphere for their return, he said. “I had the scope to talk in detail as it was an informal discussion and I explained our position clearly,” Hossain told reporters at the foreign ministry.

“If Rohingya problem is not resolved, peace and stability that you are thinking of will never be achieved,” he said, while conveying Bangladesh’s position during the meeting in Bangkok.​
 

Rohingya humanitarian crisis
by Serajul I Bhuiyan 26 December, 2024, 00:00

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The photograph taken in September 12 shows a view of the Kutupalong Rohingya camp in Ukhia, Cox’s Bazar. | Agence France-Presse/Munir uz Zaman

THE Rohingya issue is a telling indicator of how the crisis calls for urgent solidarity across borders in the wake of unimaginable human agony. Since August 2017, when Myanmar’s military launched a campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingyas in Rakhine State, Bangladesh opened its borders to more than a million individuals. While this unparalleled humanitarian response has earned widespread international acclaim, the weight of this crisis bears heavily on Bangladesh. Strained national resources, a politicised domestic debate and a reordered set of diplomatic relations have pulled Bangladesh into a precarious balancing act. For the international community, the crisis is not purely a regional affair but a common cause that demands concerted intervention.

The Rohingyas, an overwhelmingly Muslim minority in a Buddhist-majority Myanmar, have been subjected to decades of systemic persecution. Denied citizenship under Myanmar’s 1982 citizenship law, they were rendered stateless. Myanmar’s military and people have perpetrated discrimination, forced labour and violence on the Rohingyas, culminating in the 2017 crackdown. In months, more than 700,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh, adding to the thousands who had fled to Bangladesh during earlier waves of violence.

At the very outset, Bangladesh was regarded as an icon because of its welcoming the Rohingyas. Cox’s Bazar, which houses the largest refugee camp in the world, epitomises the response. Emergency assistance including shelter and health care provided by the government along with international organisations such as the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and non-governmental organisation, ensued. The response has saved many lives, but the long-term consequences of hosting such a large population are becoming increasingly apparent.

Challenges

Hosting over a million refugees in one of the world’s most densely populated countries has strained Bangladesh’s infrastructure and resources. To accommodate refugee camps, vast areas of forests in Cox’s Bazar were cleared, causing ecological degradation. The sudden influx put water resources and sanitation facilities under stress, raising health concerns. Although international aid provides substantial support, the government has to bear considerable costs for managing the crisis. The local communities in Cox’s Bazar have seen inflation, decrease in wages and competition for resources.

The Rohingya crisis is a very contentious issue in Bangladeshi politics and there are multiple dimensions that affect domestic stability. Reports of illegal activities, which include human trafficking, drug smuggling and the potential for radicalisation within the camps, have caused alarm. Such a large stateless population has posed some long-term security risks. What began as general public support for hosting the Rohingyas seems to be slowly turning into anger among the local people around Cox’s Bazar who feel marginalised. The opposition have at times blamed the government for mismanaging the crisis for political mileage. The political polarisation makes it difficult to develop a unified national strategy in handling the crisis.

Geopolitical implications

Relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar have worsened. Despite multiple repatriation agreements, Myanmar has demonstrated little commitment to ensuring safe, voluntary, and dignified returns for the Rohingyas. Border tension has flared, with accusations of military incursion and shelling. China plays the role of a mediator between Bangladesh and Myanmar while it protects Myanmar’s interests on the global stage. Bangladesh has to play along carefully with China for economic reasons. India has given a lukewarm reaction as it balances strategic interests with Myanmar and relationship with Bangladesh. It gave humanitarian aid but stopped short of strongly condemning Myanmar’s action. Western nations, particularly the United States and the European Union, have provided significant humanitarian aid and imposed sanctions in Myanmar. However, they have not been able to pressure Myanmar sufficiently for a resolution.

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Co-operation have largely been ineffective in addressing the crisis, reflecting the limitations of regional cooperation. The response of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has been criticised as tepid, given its principle of non-interference. Bangladesh’s diplomatic efforts have focused on gaining international support for repatriation and humanitarian aid. While the United Nations has condemned Myanmar, enforcement mechanisms are weak. The ICC investigation of alleged crimes against the Rohingya adds a legal dimension to the crisis but has yet to yield tangible outcomes.

Economic implications

The inflow of international aid has generated some economic activities, especially in Cox’s Bazar. Infrastructure development, logistics and services industries have benefited. But over-reliance on foreign aid can weaken local governance and long-term economic planning. Political instability associated with the crisis may deter foreign investment, especially in areas near the camps.

Arakan army’s dominance

The Arakan Army is one of the most powerful ethnic armed groups in Myanmar and over the past year, it has consolidated control over key areas of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, including Maungdaw Township. Now, with the seizure of authority over the entire 270-kilometre border previously managed by Myanmar’s military junta, the Arakan Army has added a fresh layer of complexity to the already fraught Rohingya crisis. This strategic dominance disrupts local governance, fuels regional instability and raises significant security concern for Bangladesh, which shares this volatile frontier.

The presence of the Arakan Army further complicates the plight of the Rohingya refugees, who remain one of the most vulnerable communities in the region. Accused of rights violations, including forced displacements and violent attacks against the Rohingya, the group has deepened the crisis. The actions hinder repatriation efforts and leave more than a million Rohingya refugees in the camps of Bangladesh with little hope for a safe return. The possibility of increased cross-border tension and a fresh wave of displacement heightens the stress on resources and the security apparatus of Bangladesh. This is a growing situation that underlines a need for a coordinated regional approach to address the humanitarian and geopolitical challenges posed by the territorial gains of the Arakan Army.

The Rohingyas are unwilling to return to Myanmar without guarantees of citizenship, safety, and rights. Myanmar resists international pressure, adding to the stalemate. Bangladesh has resisted giving the Rohingyas permanent status out of fear that it would encourage more influxes and further tear its social fabric. Proposals for relocating refugees to Bhasan Char, a remote island, have been criticised on safety and isolation grounds. As international focus shifts to other crises, sustaining aid and advocacy for the Rohingyas becomes increasingly challenging.

Path forward

THE Rohingya crisis, with its deep-rooted humanitarian, political, and security dimensions, requires a multi-pronged approach to address its challenges effectively. Coordinated global efforts are vital to holding Myanmar accountable for its actions against the Rohingya community. Countries must amplify diplomatic pressure by suspending bilateral agreements, withholding development aid and excluding Myanmar from international forums unless it takes concrete steps toward resolving the crisis. Comprehensive sanctions targeting Myanmar’s military leadership and their economic interests can deter continued persecution. The measures should be coupled with strict enforcement to prevent evasion. International institutions, rights organisations and influential nations must sustain global attention on the crisis through advocacy and campaigns that highlight the plight of the Rohingyas and the responsibility of the Myanmar government. The magnitude of the crisis warrants stronger regional collaboration, particularly among South and Southeast Asian countries.

A cohesive framework for refugee management, spearheaded by the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations can distribute the humanitarian burden across the region. This includes commitments for financial contributions, temporary resettlement, and shared logistical support. Regional countries must strengthen border management to prevent human trafficking and ensure that the refugee camps do not become hubs for illegal activities. Regional powers such as India and China can facilitate constructive dialogues between Bangladesh and Myanmar to build trust and explore pathways for repatriation. Cox’s Bazar, the epicentre of the Rohingya refugee crisis, requires substantial investment to alleviate pressure on local communities and create a sustainable environment for all. Projects focused on improving roads, water supply and sanitation systems can serve both refugees and local residents.

Educational programmes tailored for refugees and host community members can foster economic self-reliance and reduce social tension. Expanding healthcare facilities ensures improved living conditions for refugees and minimizes the strain on local health services. These efforts also reduce the risk of disease outbreaks, which could affect both populations. Legal action through international courts is an essential avenue to seek justice and set a global precedent against ethnic cleansing and genocide. Supporting the International Criminal Court investigation of Myanmar’s military leaders for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity can bring accountability. Cases brought before the International Court of Justice by states or organisations, as seen in the Gambia’s filing against Myanmar, demonstrate the potential of legal mechanisms to pressure compliance with international norms. Continued efforts to gather and preserve evidence of atrocities are critical for the success of these legal initiatives.

While voluntary and safe repatriation remains the ultimate goal, realistic contingency planning is crucial to address the prolonged displacement of the Rohingya. Refugees must be provided with opportunities for education, vocational training and employment, enabling them to contribute positively to host economies. Building partnerships between refugees and host communities through joint initiatives can foster social harmony and mitigate resentment. For the controversial relocation plan to succeed, measures must be taken to ensure the safety, sustainability, and voluntariness of refugee transfers to Bhasan Char island.

Call for solidarity and action

THE Rohingya crisis needs not only urgent humanitarian responses but also far-reaching and visionary strategies embedded in cooperation and justice. This solution requires firm commitments on part of the international community, from diplomatic pressure on Myanmar to regional harmony and sustainable development. Seeking accountability through courts of law and contemplating dignified futures for refugees are key components in marking the road towards a resolution. The acts are a testament to the collective commitment to uphold human rights, ensure regional stability, and adhere to shared values of humanity.

To Bangladesh, this crisis is not a national challenge but a moment in history that tests its resilience, compassion, and leadership. The burden is immense, affecting its politics, economy and global standing, but hope abounds in transformative leadership and global solidarity. It is through unity and shared responsibility that the path to peace and dignity for the Rohingyas can be realised.

Dr Serajul I Bhuiyan is a professor and former chair of the journalism and mass communications department at Savannah State University, Georgia.​
 

Bangladesh’s Rakhine dilemma
by Mohammad Abdur Razzak 28 December, 2024, 00:00

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A file photo shows Rohingya refugees gathering in the ‘no man’s land’ behind Myanmar’s border lined with barb wire fences in Maungdaw, Rakhine state bounded by Bangladesh, in April 25, 2018. | Agence France-Presse/Ye Aung Thu

MYANMAR’S Rakhine State with 36,780 square kilometres of land area is composed of seven districts — Ann, Kyaukphyu, Maungdaw, Mrauk-U, Sittwe, Taungup and Thandwe. As of December 25, the Arakan Army has taken the full control of five districts — Ann including western command headquarters, Maungdaw, Mrauk-U, Taungup and Thandwe along with the Paletwa in the neighbouring Chin State. The Arakan Army is now focused on Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine State and Kyaukphyu. India has 484 million dollar investment on Kaladan Multimodal Transport Transit project in Sittwe. Kyaukphyu has military significance to junta. China has strategically important investment in Kyaukphyu. A complete fall of Rakhine State appears a matter of time.

The change of control of the Rakhine State created streams of challenges for all stakeholders, including Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s stakes in Rakhine are different from those of others. The most important stake is the repatriation of more than 1.2 million Rohingyas. To repatriate Rohingyas, Bangladesh has adopted three approaches — internationalisation of the refugee issue, China-brokered bilateral agreement with Myanmar and a joint working group involving Bangladesh, China and Myanmar. Talks on the repatriation has stalled since the Chinese ambassador’s remark at a press conference on May 10, 2021 that he did not see any possibility of holding a tripartite meeting in the ‘foreseeable future’ and there is no such plan to hold such a meeting involving China, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Since then, there has not been any progress in the bilateral or tripartite arrangement. Interim measures detailed by the International Court of Justice on the protection of Rohingyas remaining inside Myanmar had no effect either. In seven years, none of the options yielded results.

Besides concerns for Rohingya repatriation, Bangladesh has grave unease at a probable increase in the unfettered supply of synthetic drugs from Myanmar. The junta-controlled Bangladesh-Myanmar border was porous, with drugs from Myanmar entering Bangladesh. An insecure border will be haven for illicit drug smugglers. In the changed situation, Bangladesh will need cooperation from the Arakan Army to keep the smuggling of drugs, arms and other contraband items in check. But it is discussed in the diplomatic circle that a state entity cannot engage diplomatically with a non-state actor. The thought contradicts the theory of necessity or the theory of reality. Bangladesh is yet to make a decision on border management.

The desolate expanse on the Bangladesh’s eastern maritime frontier is a potential ground for a wider conflict between the Arakan Army and the Myanmar navy. Apart from the Bangladesh-Myanmar land border, Rakhine cost is a life line for the Arakan Army. The junta navy could impose naval blockade to cut the lifeline. With this probability in mind, the Arakan Army could develop its maritime wing to run through the blockade.

The Arakan Army’s takeover does not portend peace in Rakhine. Rakhine State will remain restive until the fall of regime in Nay Pyi Taw. A restive Rakhine coast will affect the use of the sea by the coastal population of Teknaf and St Martins Island. They will become victims of the fight between the Arakan Army’s sea component and the Myanmar navy. Recent conflicts along the Myanmar coast spilled over into the waters of the River Naf and waters adjacent to St Martins Island, killing innocent Bangladeshi fishers. The Arakan Army and the Myanmar navy also abducted fishers at sea. They are already in the line of fire at sea. Bangladesh will have to act to defend them.

Bangladesh has always been in a dilemma in deciding the appropriate course of action except solving the face-off at sea in 2008. Bangladesh failed to appreciate the military junta’s intention after the Kofi Anan Commission’s report on the integration of the Rohingyas into Myanmar society. Bangladesh also failed to understand the purpose of Myanmar’s military build-up in northern Rakhine in June–July 2017. While the army was bringing in extra forces into northern Rakhine, the Arakan Army and the Myanmar army were holding an unofficial ceasefire. Warring parties normally do not move personnel or war materials while a truce or ceasefire is in force. Extra forces were brought in to conduct the planned Clearance Operation to evict the Rohingyas.

Ignorance or insouciance about the political and military developments across the Bangladesh’s eastern border with Myanmar together with political leadership’s debated wish resulted into a historical blunder to bear the burden of more than 1.2 million refugees and pushed the country into the uncertainty with their repatriation. Blunder was repeated by planning to relocate 100,000 refugees to Bhashan Char, far away from the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. The military regime in Nay Pyi Taw must have interpreted the relocation scheme that Bangladesh has accepted refugees and integrating them into main stream population. Consequently, the regime became disinterested in the repatriation talk. Another blunder was not creating leadership within the Rohingya community. The community needed a leader to keep them organised for settling in their homes in Myanmar.

The national unity government in June 2021 in a historical declaration cleared its position on the Rohingyas. The national unity government recognised the Rohingya as an ethnicity in Myanmar and announced the repatriation of the Rohingyas with full citizenship and other rights after toppling the military junta that had taken control of the country through a coup in 2021. The national unity government, Myanmar’s government in exile, was interested to have dialogues with Bangladesh. But it has not been in communication.

The Arakan Army was also interested in engaging with Bangladesh after the Brotherhood Alliance had launched military campaign on October 27, 2023 to topple the junta. As Bangladesh was hesitant to engage officially with the national unity government or the Arakan Army, track 2.0 or 2.5 level engagement could be a feasible option. On the other hand, India and China have played all sides — the national unity government, the Arakan Army and other armed groups fighting the regime. They also maintained a diplomatic engagement with the military ruler in Nay Pyi Taw. In December 2024, India officially invited the national unity government, the Arakan Army, the Chin National Front and the Kachin Independence Army to a seminar hosted by the Indian Council of World Affairs, a think-tank funded by the Indian government. China also held an official meeting with the Arakan Army in Tengchong, China on December 1.

In the context of the change of control of Rakhine State and situation unfolding in Myanmar, Bangladesh should shrug off shakiness and be decisive about engaging all stakeholders fighting the regime for democracy in Myanmar, and in particular the stakeholders in Rakhine politics.

Mohammad Abdur Razzak, a retired commodore of Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.​
 

Dhaka needs to cope with new situation in Myanmar border: Experts
BSS
Published :
Dec 28, 2024 20:58
Updated :
Dec 28, 2024 20:58

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Security experts, former diplomats, and academics on Saturday called for making engagement with Arakan Army (AA), which now controls more than 80 per cent of Rakhine State, including the 271-km border between Bangladesh and Myanmar.

They were addressing a policy dialogue on “Rakhine after the Fall of Maungdaw: Implications for Bangladesh and the Region”, organised by Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) at a city hotel.

BIPSS President Major General (retd) A N M Muniruzzaman moderated the discussion, with former Defense Attach to Myanmar and former Ambassador to Libya Major General (retd) Md Shahidul Haque and East-West University Assistant Professor Parvez Karim Abbasi serving as panelists.

“I would say it’s high time to engage with the Arakan Army, diplomatically also, because this is a standard procedure in many cases, but we should also keep our military options open,” said Abbasi.

He suggested that if Dhaka cannot directly communicate with a non-state actor like the Arakan Army, it should explore all possible informal channels to establish contact.

Abbasi warned that the Arakan Army’s control over Rakhine could exacerbate insurgency risks in India’s northeastern states.

Major General (retd) Muniruzzaman said Bangladesh government should formulate a clear strategy to address the complex situation in Rakhine.

“If we don’t establish contact with the Arakan Army in time... Rakhine is not landlocked and there is already a process of establishing external contacts through maritime routes,” he cautioned.

Referring to India’s approach, Muniruzzaman noted that while New Delhi has historically maintained close ties with Myanmar’s junta, it appears to be recalibrating its strategy to engage with the Arakan Army in light of Rakhine’s shifting dynamics.

Major General (retd) Haque described engaging with the Arakan Army as a potential “win-win situation” for Bangladesh, benefiting not only security but also economic interests.

He observed that the Arakan Army’s dominance in Rakhine has created a complex situation for India, which could present a strategic opportunity for Bangladesh.

“This is the opportunity for us... for the first time, we are in the driver’s seat, especially in negotiating our interests with India,” he said.

Last week, in Thailand, Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain urged Myanmar to address ongoing border and Rakhine issues, reiterating that Dhaka cannot engage with non-state actors such as the Arakan Army.

“I informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under their control. It is now controlled by non-state actors like the Arakan Army. As a state, we cannot engage with them. Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine,” Hossain told reporters in Dhaka after attending an informal consultation on Myanmar.

The Arakan Army’s growing influence and new reality in Rakhine has implications for Bangladesh in border management and raised fears of a potential new influx of displaced Rohingyas.​
 

National Task Force calls UN to secure Rohingya funding
BSS
Published: 28 Dec 2024, 16: 46

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The National Task Force (NTF) on forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals (FDMNs) has urged the United Nations (UN) and the international community to secure adequate funding to sustain ongoing humanitarian activities for the Rohingyas and host community in Bangladesh.

The call was made at the 46th meeting of the NTF held with its chairperson foreign secretary Md. Jasim Uddin in the chair on 24 December at the foreign ministry, said a ministry’s press release here today.

During the meeting, the Foreign Secretary reiterated that the sustainable and voluntary repatriation of the Rohingyas to Myanmar is the only long-term solution.

“We call for effective measures from all stakeholders to resolve this crisis,” he said.

UN agency representatives, the World Bank, the Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC), and officials from various ministries and agencies attended the meeting.

The meeting made a strong appeal to the United Nations for coordinated action to facilitate a dignified return of the Rohingyas to Myanmar, ensuring their rights and security in their homeland.

UN representatives briefed the meeting on the current initiatives in Rakhine State and called for collective efforts to create a safe and conducive environment for repatriation.

The meeting addressed critical issues related to the Rohingya population in Cox's Bazar and Bhasan Char, including camp management, infrastructure, electricity, healthcare, and family planning.

Discussions also covered financing for both Rohingya and host communities, facilitated by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

Participants highlighted the challenges arising from the prolonged presence of the Rohingyas in Bangladesh, particularly the socio-economic and security implications.

Emphasis was placed on enhancing overall security in and around the camps and addressing the needs of newly arrived Myanmar nationals.​
 

Conflict in rakhine: Dhaka in touch with both the Myanmar govt, Arakan Army
Says home adviser

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Dhaka is maintaining contact with both the Myanmar government and the Arakan Army -- the rebel group that is now controlling the border with Bangladesh -- to protect national interests, said Home Adviser Lt Gen (retd) Jahangir Alam Chowdhury.

"The 271-km land and river border with Myanmar is now controlled by the Arakan Army completely. However, the country is officially run by the Myanmar government. Now, [given the situation] we have to maintain contact with both parties," he said in response to a journalist's question at the Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority's jetty at Damdamia on the banks of the Naf River in Teknaf, Cox's Bazar, yesterday afternoon.

"In order to protect our interests, the communication between the Myanmar government and the Arakan Army is being maintained from the beginning," the adviser said.

The adviser said that around 60,000 Rohingyas have entered Bangladesh with the help of some unscrupulous Bangladeshi brokers.

He said the government has not yet decided on the registration of the newly arrived Rohingyas. There was no policy decision about giving them shelter in Bangladesh, he added.

"We need everyone's cooperation to resist these brokers. Otherwise, they will become a menace. Trespassing will not be allowed under any circumstances," he said, adding that Chief Adviser Dr Yunus had raised the Rohingya repatriation issue at the last UN conference.

"Bangladesh border is completely under the control of BGB and Coast Guard. The locals at the border have no reason to fear," he said acknowledging that violence is still continuing on the other side of the border.

Jahangir also said the illegal drug trade is a long-standing problem in the area. "This area [Teknaf] is infamous for drugs. Mr Bodi was also infamous [for the same reason]. We need everyone's cooperation to fight this problem. Law enforcers cannot solve it alone."

Earlier, the home adviser flew to Teknaf from Dhaka by helicopter. After holding a meeting with BGB officials, he visited some border points in Teknaf and observed the overall situation.

BGB Director General Major General Mohammad Ashrafuzzaman Siddiqui accompanied him at that time.​
 

More than 3.5 mn displaced in Myanmar: UN
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File photo of Rohingyas leaving Myanmar

More than 3.5 million people have been displaced by armed conflict in Myanmar, an increase of 1.5 million from last year, the United Nations said Friday, warning that the country's humanitarian crisis could worsen.

Since the military seized power in a 2021 coup, Myanmar has been rocked by fighting between numerous ethnic rebel groups and the army.

Those groups have battled the military since independence for autonomy and control of lucrative natural resources.

The conflict has spread from the borderlands to most regions nationwide, "forcing record numbers of people to flee their homes in search of safety and meeting their basic needs," the UN humanitarian agency OCHA said in a statement.

As of December 16, "it is estimated that over 3.5 million people -- more than six percent of the total population of 57 million -- across Myanmar are now displaced, approximately one-third of them children," OCHA said.

"This marks a staggering increase of nearly 1.5 million internally displaced persons compared to a year ago."

The agency said that the final days of 2024 had been marked by "intense fighting involving air strikes, drone attacks, artillery shelling, raids and arbitrary arrests."

It called the outlook for 2025 "grim," citing "an unprecedented humanitarian crisis fueled by escalating conflict, disasters, epidemics, widespread explosive ordnance and land mine contamination, and economic collapse."

"If these trends persist, the humanitarian situation will deteriorate further, leaving millions of people in urgent need of assistance," OCHA warned.

The United Nations estimates that 19.9 million people in Myanmar, or more than a third of the population, will need humanitarian aid in 2025.

OCHA has launched an appeal for $1.1 billion in funding to reach 5.5 million people with "life-saving assistance" in 2025, but such appeals are chronically underfunded.​
 

Myanmar junta grants amnesty to nearly 6,000 prisoners
Agence France-Presse . Naypyidaw, Myanmar 04 January, 2025, 22:22

Myanmar’s embattled junta government on Saturday said it would release almost 6,000 prisoners as part of an annual amnesty to mark the country’s independence day.

The military has arrested thousands of protesters and activists since its February 2021 coup that ended Myanmar’s brief democratic experiment and plunged the nation into turmoil.

More than 5,800 prisoners—including 180 foreigners—will be freed, the junta said in a statement on Saturday, when the country marks 77 years of independence from British colonial rule.

It did not give details of what the prisoners had been convicted of or the nationalities of the foreign detainees who were set to be deported on release.

The military said it ordered the pardons ‘on humanitarian and compassionate grounds’.

The junta also announced that 144 people who had been sentenced to life in prison would have their sentences commuted to 15 years.

Myanmar frequently grants amnesty to thousands of prisoners to commemorate holidays or Buddhist festivals.

Last year, the junta announced the release of more than 9,000 prisoners to mark independence day.

The annual independence day ceremony held in the heavily guarded capital Naypyidaw on Saturday morning saw around 500 government and military attendees.

A speech by junta chief Min Aung Hlaing—who was not present at the event—was delivered by deputy army chief Soe Win.

Soe Win reiterated the junta’s call to dozens of ethnic minority armed groups that have been fighting it for the last four years to put down arms and ‘resolve the political issue through peaceful means’.

He repeated a military pledge to hold delayed democratic elections and called for national unity.​
 

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