[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

G Bangladesh Defense
[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh
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Major Myanmar ethnic rebel group says ready for talks
Agence France-Presse . Bangkok 26 November, 2024, 00:44

A major Myanmar ethnic rebel group said on Monday it was ready for talks with the junta to end more than a year of renewed fighting that has ravaged areas along the China border.

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army can call on around 7,000 fighters and has fought the Myanmar military for over a decade for autonomy for the Palaung ethnic minority in northern Shan state.

Last year the TNLA and two other allied rebel groups launched an offensive against the military that has seized swathes of Shan state, including ruby mines and a lucrative trade highway to China.

The military has repeatedly pounded territory it has lost with artillery and air strikes but a promised counter-offensive on the ground is yet to materialise.

‘We announce that we are ready to meet and discuss in order to end the military conflict from both sides,’ the TNLA said on its Telegram channel.

‘In the day-to-day fighting in our Ta’ang region the local people are suffering badly from the war.’

While it said it was ready for talks, it also added that it would reserve the ‘right to defend ourselves.’

‘We will talk, but we will not give territory,’ the TNLA’s General Tar Bhone Kyaw said.

AFP was unable to reach a junta spokesman for comment.

Myanmar’s embattled junta in September made an unprecedented invitation to its enemies to start talks, a bid dismissed at the time by rebel groups.

Analysts say Beijing has pressured the TNLA and its ally the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army to halt their operations against the junta.

China is a major ally and arms supplier of the junta, but also maintains ties with ethnic minority armed groups that hold territory near its border.

It has repeatedly called for fighting to stop in Shan state, a key link in its trillion-dollar Belt and Road initiative.

Last week Beijing said that the head of the MNDAA had come to China for ‘medical care’, after news reports in Myanmar said he had been arrested on China’s orders

In its statement Monday the TNLA said it ‘respects and recognises the efforts of the Chinese government to intervene in the border stabilisation and the cessation of hostilities.’

Myanmar is home to around a dozen ethnic armed rebel groups that have battled the military for decades for autonomy and control of lucrative resources including jade, timber and opium.

Some, including the TNLA, have given shelter and training to newer ‘People’s Defence Forces’ that sprung up to battle the military after it seized power in a 2021 coup.​
 

ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrant for Myanmar junta chief
AFP
The Hague
Published: 27 Nov 2024, 20: 43

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Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing Reuters file photo

The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor on Wednesday asked judges to grant an arrest warrant for Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing over alleged crimes against humanity committed against Rohingya Muslims.

Karim Khan's request to the court's Hague-based judges is the first application for an arrest warrant against a high-level Myanmar government official in connection with abuses against the Rohingya people.

"After an extensive, independent and impartial investigation, my office has concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Senior General and Acting President Min Aung Hlaing... bears criminal responsibility for crimes against humanity," Khan said in a statement.

This included crimes of deportation and persecution, allegedly committed between 25 August and 31 December 2017, Khan added.

Myanmar's junta rejected the prosecutor's move, saying that as the country is not a member of the court, "the statements of the ICC have never been recognised."

The ICC prosecutor in 2019 opened a probe into suspected crimes committed against the Rohingya in Myanmar's restive Rakhine state in 2016 and 2017, that prompted the exodus of 750,000 of the Muslim minority in the southeast Asian country to neighbouring Bangladesh.

About one million Rohingya now live in sprawling camps near the Bangladesh border city of Cox's Bazaar. Many of those who left accuse the Myanmar military of mass killings and rapes.

'More will follow'

Khan said the alleged crimes were committed by Myanmar's armed forces, the Tatmadaw, supported by the national and border police "as well as non-Rohingya citizens."

"This is the first application for an arrest warrant against a high-level Myanmar government official," Khan said.

"More will follow," warned the prosecutor.

Myanmar has been racked by conflict between the military and various armed groups opposed to its rule since the army ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government in February 2021.

The junta is reeling from a major rebel offensive last year that seized a large area of territory, much of it near the border with China.

Earlier this month, Min Aung Hlaing told China's Premier Li Qiang that the military was ready for peace if armed groups would engage, according to an account of the meeting in Myanmar state media.

'Cycle of abuses'

A military crackdown in Myanmar in 2017 sent hundreds of thousands of Rohingya fleeing into neighbouring Bangladesh, many with harrowing stories of murder, rape and arson.

Rohingya who remain in Myanmar are denied citizenship and access to healthcare and require permission to travel outside their townships.

Min Aung Hlaing -- who was head of the army during the crackdown -- has dismissed the term Rohingya as "imaginary".

ICC judges must now decide whether to grant the arrest warrants. If granted, the 124 members of the ICC would theoretically be obliged to arrest the junta chief if he travelled to their country.

China, a major ally and arms supplier of Myanmar's ruling junta, is not an ICC member.

Khan's request comes just days after the ICC issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his ex defence minister and a top Hamas leader over the war in Gaza.

Rights groups applauded Khan's Myanmar move, saying it was "an important step toward breaking the cycle of abuses and impunity that has long been a key factor in fuelling the military's mass violations."

"The judges will rule on the prosecutor's request, but ICC member countries should recognise this action as a reminder of the court's critical role when other doors to justice are closed," said Maria Elena Vignoli, a senior international lawyer Human Rights Watch.

Opening its doors in 2002, the Hague-based ICC is an independent court, set up to investigate and prosecute those accused of the world's worst crimes.​
 

Hope for justice for Rohingyas
Quazi Omar Foysal 28 November, 2024, 21:35

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Agence France-Presse

THE public statement of ICC prosecutor Karim Khan KC on the arrest warrant application against General Min Aung Hlaing during his recent visit to Bangladesh is a long-awaited but anticipated development in the ICC’s quest to ensure justice for the deported Rohingya population currently taking shelter in Bangladeshi refugee camps.

It is alleged that the acting president of Myanmar and commander-in-chief of the Myanmar Defence Services bears criminal responsibility for the crimes against humanity of deportation and persecution of the Rohingya. Now, the matter is pending final determination before a pre-trial chamber of the ICC. The ICC prosecutor further indicated that he may come up with more arrest warrant applications against top-ranked Burmese leaders in the Bangladesh-Myanmar situation.

The arrest warrant application resulted from the five-year-long investigation of the ICC’s Office of the Prosecutor. This development surfaced at a time when the ICC has been struggling with the fallout of its activities in other situations, notably the Palestine situation. Though the Office of the Prosecutor began its formal investigation in November 2019 following the authorisation of the pre-trial chamber, its procrastination in issuing arrest warrants against alleged Myanmar accused, despite mounting evidence, was widely criticised by the international community.

The Bangladesh/Myanmar situation is noted for its unique procedural history. The ICC, being a treaty-based international court, can generally exercise its jurisdiction over its member states. It was initially believed that the ICC did not enjoy any jurisdiction over the Rohingya situation due to Myanmar’s status as a non-party state to the Rome Statute.

Nevertheless, given the transboundary nature of the Rohingya deportation and Bangladesh’s status as a party to the Rome Statute, the then ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda took the unbeaten path to request the pre-trial chamber for a ruling to confirm the ICC’s jurisdiction over the deportation. Finally, the chamber confirmed the ICC’s jurisdiction over the Rohingya deportation on September 6, 2018 since the alleged crimes commenced in Myanmar but were completed in Bangladesh. However, the ICC does not enjoy jurisdiction over all the crimes committed completely in Myanmar for the same.

In the aftermath of the ICC’s confirmation of jurisdiction over the Rohingya deportation and persecution, the erstwhile prosecutor commenced the preliminary examination on the basis of her proprio motu power. She subsequently requested authorisation for an investigation before the pre-trial chamber on June 12, 2019, which was duly confirmed on November 14, 2019. As mentioned earlier, the prosecutor finally filed an arrest warrant application against General Hlaing on November 27, 2024.

This complex and time-consuming procedural patchwork is important to understand the nature of the arrest warrant application and its prospects. In fact, the ICC is reputed for its lengthy procedural timelines. It has been evident that the Office of the Prosecutor was relatively abrupt in commencing its investigation. On the contrary, it took an unusually lengthy time to proceed to the arrest warrant application despite having a wealth of incriminating evidence at its disposal, primarily collected by UN investigative bodies and subsequently by the Office of the Prosecutor itself.

While the ICC was deeply involved in the Ukraine and Palestine situations with investigations and arrest warrant applications in the last three years, its omission to shed light on the Bangladesh/Myanmar situation was marked by dismay among the Rohingya community. Ultimately, the prosecutor’s announcement of the arrest warrant application while standing in the Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar is really significant for the Rohingya community.

The arrest warrant application has both symbolic and legal value. Legally, the application is subject to confirmation by a pre-trial chamber. It is very unlikely that the pre-trial chamber will decline to confirm the same. Very recently, the ICC issued arrest warrants against Russian president Vladimir Putin and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu despite their political sensitivity. Though the Myanmar leadership has some politically powerful allies, including China, the fact that the president of a permanent member of the UN Security Council has been subject to an ICC arrest warrant indicates that the ICC will rely on legal considerations rather than political repercussions while ruling on the arrest warrant.

The arrest warrant application against General Hlaing invites some inevitable legal complications. Most importantly, the Rome Statute does not provide for trials in absentia. Consequently, the issue of producing General Hlaing comes to the forefront. At this instance, his status as the head of state will be a hurdle in securing his presence before the ICC. This is due to the question of the immunity of high-ranking government officials, which is alleged to be unsettled in international law.

The ICC has been struggling to arrest several incumbent heads of state and heads of government of non-party states to the ICC. It has been an issue of legal and political discontent between the ICC and a number of ICC member states. These include Omar al-Bashir, Vladimir Putin, and, very recently, Benjamin Netanyahu. The arrest warrant application against General Hlaing, if ultimately issued, will resurface the same issue.

The absence of the accused before the ICC means the halt of the proceedings of a case. In that case, General Hlaing may succeed in escaping ICC proceedings by avoiding the arrest warrant. But it will not prevent him from facing the political consequences. He will be forced to rethink his international travel routes for the rest of his life. Global leaders will also reconsider their political and financial dealings with an ICC accused like him.

It has been seen in the past that arrest warrants issued by international criminal courts and tribunals have also impacted the ground realities of conflicts. When Myanmar is struggling in its domestic war theatre against rebels, this arrest warrant application, coupled with the prosecutor’s intention to lodge additional applications, will certainly affect the morale of the Myanmar military leadership. It will not be completely surprising if this arrest warrant application impacts the overall conflict situation in Myanmar.

The arrest warrant application can also be seen as a symbolic victory for the Rohingya community. It has already been seven years since the Rohingya were deported from their homeland to Bangladesh. Despite the hope for justice brought by the ICC in the early days of its investigation back in 2019, its delay in issuing arrest warrants despite two rounds of visits by prosecutor Karim Khan to Bangladesh raised questions about the effectiveness of the ICC itself. With this arrest warrant application in place, the Rohingya community will regain the moral strength to rethink their quest for justice and accountability.

This arrest warrant application also coincides with Myanmar’s application for extending the deadline for submitting its response to The Gambia’s allegation of the Rohingya genocide before the International Court of Justice, ICJ. It indicates that the junta-led Myanmar government will contest the ICJ case. It was speculated that Myanmar might opt to remain absent in the merits stage before the ICJ after its defeat in the preliminary objections stage. However, the indication that Myanmar will participate in the ICJ proceedings should be welcomed by the Rohingya community because it is preferable to have a hard-won legal battle than an overwhelming ex parte judgement.

Bangladesh should also take this moment to reinforce its diplomatic efforts to secure the safe and dignified repatriation of the Rohingya community at both bilateral and multilateral levels. At the same time, Bangladesh should reconsider intervening in the Rohingya genocide case before the ICJ.

Quazi Omar Foysal is an international law expert. He was part of the amicus curiae observation submitted by Bangladeshi non-government representatives in support of the ICC Prosecution’s request for jurisdiction over the Rohingya deportation.​
 

Another rebel group calls for talks with junta

A second major Myanmar ethnic rebel group has said it is ready for Beijing-mediated talks with the junta to end more than a year of renewed fighting that has ravaged areas along the Chinese border.

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), with about 8,000 available fighters, has fought the Myanmar military for more than a decade for autonomy for the Kokang ethnic minority in northern Shan state.

Last year, it and two other allied rebel groups launched an offensive against the military and seized swathes of Shan state, including ruby mines and a lucrative trade highway to China.

Last week, MNDAA ally the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) said it was ready for talks with the military.

The Arakan Army (AA), the third group in the rebel alliance, is still fighting the military in coastal Rakhine state in Myanmar's west.​
 

Yunus’s UN proposal to resolve Rohingya crisis
Sorowar Chowdhury 05 December, 2024, 21:27


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New Age

UPON publication of the report by the Advisory Commission on Rakhine State led by former UN secretary general Kofi Annan in August 2017, there should not have been any debate over the Rohingya people’s nationality and citizenship issues. According to media reports, in 2017, Myanmar and Bangladesh signed an agreement regarding the repatriation of the stranded Rohingya people, which was supposed to start from January 2018. In contrast to Bangladesh’s proposal of 15,000 Rohingya repatriations per week, Myanmar agreed to accept 1,500 initially and to increase the rate at a three-month review, with the repatriation of 740,000 Rohingyas, who had taken shelter in Bangladesh in 2016 and 2017, supposed to have been completed within two years. Little progress has been made so far, however.

Considering this backdrop, the chief adviser to Bangladesh’s interim government, Professor Yunus, should be commended for his recent appeal to the United Nations. On September 24, 2024, requesting a pragmatic solution to the Rohingya crisis, he presented a three-point proposal at the UN General Assembly’s sideline session. His first proposal requested that the UN Secretary-General organise a conference on the Rohingya crisis, inviting all stakeholders at the soonest possible opportunity. In this regard, Myanmar’s obligation to uphold the rights of the Rohingya people warrants further discussion.

Firstly, the Rohingya people have been living in Myanmar for at least several generations. They should not be considered stateless. Rather, they should be regarded with honour and dignity. Articles 1, 2, 3, 5 and 15 of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) ensure every person’s basic human rights, including living with dignity, freedom and non-coercion. Moreover, Article 15 of the same declaration affirms that every person has the right to a nationality and that no one can be arbitrarily denied this. Myanmar was one of the first 48 countries that voted in support of that declaration in 1948.

Secondly, even if considered stateless, as they have been rendered by Myanmar’s 1982 citizenship law, the Rohingya people cannot remain the victims of discrimination. In this respect, the UN Conventions on Statelessness (1954) and the Reduction of Statelessness (1961) may be mentioned. Article 3 of the 1954 Convention ensures non-discrimination and Article 1 of the 1961 Convention ensures ‘citizenship at birth’ to a child who would ‘otherwise be stateless’. Although Myanmar is not a party to either of these two conventions, being a UN member state, Myanmar does need to comply with the ‘non-discrimination’ terms of the UN Declaration (1948) mentioned above. Further, it also needs to comply with the ‘citizenship at birth’ terms, which fall under the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (mentioned later).

Thirdly, Myanmar has ratified and/or accessed (both have the same legal effect) several other UN conventions and/or protocols relevant to today’s discussion. For example, the 1979 Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women, the 2000 Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons Especially Women and Children, and the International Labour Organisation’s Forced Labour Convention (1930). Researchers and historians mention that the Rohingya people are the victims of forced labour, and many of the women are the victims of abuse. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime defines human trafficking as involving three key components: the ‘what’ (such as recruitment, transportation, and transfer), the ‘how’ (which includes methods like threat, coercion, or abduction), and the ‘why’ (typically for purposes such as sexual exploitation or forced labour). In light of these elements, the treatment of the Rohingya people, both in the recent past and historical contexts, can be classified as trafficking in persons. This treatment represents a violation of multiple international conventions, specifically non-compliance with Article 6 of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, Article 1.1 of the Forced Labour Convention, and the failure to conform to the objectives outlined in Article 2a and 2b of the Trafficking in Persons Protocol. In principle, Myanmar is obligated under these international agreements to treat the Rohingya people in a manner consistent with the protections established by these conventions.

Additionally, Myanmar is a state party to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (1951). The UN and leading international rights bodies, including Amnesty International and Fortify Rights, termed the 2017 killing of the Rohingya as ethnic cleansing and/or genocide. Global humanitarian and state actors may therefore take necessary steps to ensure Myanmar follows its obligations in compliance with Article 1 of this convention and thereby prevents genocide. It is Myanmar’s responsibility to establish conditions that encourage the Rohingya people living in Bangladeshi camps to opt for voluntary repatriation.

Finally, considering the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC, 1989), children should in no way be the victims of any persecution. It was made evident by the media that the dead bodies of innocent children were floating on the Naf River during the 2017 massacre carried out by the Myanmar army. The UNCRC Articles 7 and 8 ensure every child’s identity, protection, and nationality ‘immediately after birth’. Myanmar became a state party to the UNCRC in 1991. Additionally, Article 7 asserts that the national law of signatory states should be guided by relevant international instruments, especially when there is the possibility of a child ‘otherwise becom[ing] stateless’. This convention makes it clear that states do not need to wait for the child to attain adulthood to claim citizenship.

On behalf of the people of Bangladesh, we would urge the UN Secretary-General to honour Professor Yunus’ call and take necessary measures to organise an all-stakeholders’ conference at the soonest possible time. Indeed, the conference could bring a ground-breaking opportunity to resolve this protracted crisis by converging refugee and non-refugee actors and ensuring healthy debates among all. Furthermore, it would facilitate the creation of Rohingya leadership, who could be the most active and agile advocates to make their voices heard in bringing the crisis to an end.

We would like to see the UN’s effective facilitating role in revitalising the repatriation deal from Myanmar’s side. We also expect that the Rohingya people will be treated in compliance with the relevant UN conventions. We do believe that these people’s human rights should be upheld and that they should thereby be able to live with freedom and dignity, whether living in Myanmar or returning from Bangladesh under the repatriation process.

Sorowar Chowdhury is a Rohingya researcher and a doctoral candidate at Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand.​
 

Security concerns for Bangladesh
by Abu Ahmed Farid 07 December, 2024, 00:00

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New Age

SINCE its independence, Myanmar has been plagued by instability and ethnic conflicts, particularly in the Arakan (Rakhine) state, home to two major communities: the Rohingya Muslims and the Rakhine Buddhists. The military-dominated central government has consistently demonstrated harshness, discrimination, racism, and misuse of power, particularly against people of diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds. This enduring dynamic has left Myanmar entrenched in backwardness, instability, and unrest compared to other nations in the region.

These conditions have placed neighbouring Bangladesh in a precarious security position. Myanmar’s military actions, ethnic conflicts, cross-border trafficking, smuggling, and insurgent activities — notably those of the Arakan Army — have further intensified the crisis. Bangladesh has responded with a humanitarian approach, hosting over a million Rohingya refugees who fled Arakan to escape the junta’s brutal crackdown. However, Myanmar’s ongoing unrest has forced Bangladesh to grapple with significant security, social, and economic challenges.

Risk of extremism and radicalisation

THE prolonged displacement of the Rohingya people, spanning multiple generations in camps, has left them in deeply inadequate living conditions. The overcrowded and impoverished camps are breeding grounds for frustration and despair, especially among young people who lack access to education and livelihoods. These conditions make them vulnerable to exploitation by extremist elements. Myanmar’s junta could also covertly manipulate the situation to sow discord among the Rohingya and prevent unified efforts to reclaim their rights. Furthermore, Myanmar has often covertly tarnished the image of the Rohingya to discredit them in host countries worldwide.

This displacement and lack of opportunity create a recipe for potential radicalization. Transnational militant groups have reportedly identified the Rohingya population as a vulnerable pool for recruitment, exploiting the chaos to lure individuals with promises of empowerment, retribution, or a better future. This exploitation could unintentionally entrap the Rohingya in dangerous activities.

Cross-border violence and diplomatic strain

BANGLADESH faces escalating risks from Myanmar’s internal conflicts, as frequent cross-border incidents strain bilateral relations. Clashes between Myanmar’s military and rebel groups often spill into Bangladeshi territory, with stray bullets and artillery shells landing in border areas. Such incursions instill fear among local residents and pose a direct threat to innocent lives.

Myanmar’s deployment of landmines along the border adds to these risks, endangering refugees and local communities. Reports of injuries and fatalities, particularly among children, are disturbingly frequent. Experts describe this as a ‘silent catastrophe,’ highlighting the severe human cost and escalating tensions in the region. Additionally, violations of the sanctity of the border by Myanmar troops have become the norm.

Myanmar’s security forces have repeatedly undermined peaceful coexistence between the two nations by engaging in aggressive actions along the border. These include attacks on Bangladeshi border security guards, abductions of Bangladeshi fishermen from within Bangladesh’s territorial waters, and theft of property belonging to Bangladeshi citizens. Furthermore, they have consistently violated the no-man’s-land regulations, escalating tensions and straining bilateral relations.

Drug trafficking and organised crimes

MYANMAR’S position as one of the world’s largest producers of methamphetamines (commonly referred to as Yaba tablets) poses a grave security risk for Bangladesh. The porous border is exploited for smuggling these drugs, particularly into vulnerable border communities, fuelling rising addiction rates and escalating crime. Local law enforcement faces immense challenges in combating the methamphetamine trade, which has grown significantly in recent years.

The broader security implications are alarming. Drug trafficking is intertwined with organised crime, leading to increased violence and straining Bangladesh’s law enforcement resources.

Reports also suggest Myanmar’s security forces are complicit in trafficking activities. The Arakan Army, which gains significant income from the illegal drug trade and other illicit activities, has intensified this threat by leveraging its control over border areas.

Human trafficking networks

HUMAN trafficking has emerged as another grave concern along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, exploiting the vulnerability of Rohingya refugees. Criminal networks prey on desperate individuals, particularly women and children, luring them with false promises only to subject them to forced labour and exploitation. Security experts emphasise that these operations involve sophisticated transnational criminal networks.

Reports suggest that Myanmar’s border guards facilitate trafficking operations, coercing Rohingyas onto smuggler boats to drive them further from their homeland. This not only worsens the refugee crisis but also heightens regional instability.

Insurgent alliances and cross-border militancy

THE Arakan Army’s control over border areas raises serious concerns about potential alliances with insurgent and separatist groups in Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tracts. Such alliances could increase cross-border militant activities and arms smuggling, destabilising Bangladesh’s internal security.

Insurgents holding dual citizenship and maintaining networks on both sides of the border further complicated efforts to address this threat. The interplay of these factors presents a multidimensional security risk that could undermine regional stability. Many members of these groups have reportedly settled in remote areas on both sides of the border, especially after the Rohingya people were forcibly displaced under gun threats and death threats.

Diplomatic stalemate

BANGLADESH’S efforts to resolve the Rohingya crisis through diplomatic channels have faced consistent resistance from Myanmar. Despite repeated attempts, Myanmar refuses to take responsibility or facilitate the safe repatriation of the Rohingyas.

Myanmar’s strategic alliances with influential powers, including China, India, and Russia, complicate global intervention. These alliances reduce the urgency for international action, leaving Bangladesh to shoulder the burden.

Refugee influx and consequences

THE influx of Rohingya refugees has overwhelmed Bangladesh’s infrastructure, social services, and public utilities, particularly in Cox’s Bazar. Facilities originally designed for local populations are now overstretched, fuelling tensions between refugees and host communities.

The environmental impact of hosting refugees has been severe. Forests in Cox’s Bazar have been cleared to accommodate camps, leading to deforestation, soil erosion, and water scarcity. These challenges disrupt local agriculture and fisheries, critical to the livelihoods of nearby communities, exacerbating tensions and social instability. Sustainable resource management and international collaboration are crucial to mitigate these long-term risks.

Lack of accountability for Myanmar actions

THE absence of meaningful international sanctions against Myanmar has emboldened its military and government to persist in their aggressive policies, disregarding human rights and border safety, and directly threatening Bangladesh’s security. A unified international response is critical to ensure Myanmar faces consequences for its actions. Furthermore, Myanmar’s repeated allegations that the Rohingyas are Bengalis not only deepen the oppression of the Rohingyas but also directly challenge Bangladesh’s sovereignty and security.

These accusations suggest that Myanmar has no genuine intention of resolving the crisis. Instead, it appears to be deliberately prolonging the conflict, with the aim of driving the remaining Rohingya population into Bangladesh — an agenda seemingly shared by both the Myanmar government and the Arakan Army.

Volatile path ahead

THE convergence of challenges — extremism, cross-border violence, trafficking, strained diplomacy, environmental degradation, and geopolitical complexities — has created a highly volatile situation for Bangladesh. The Rohingya crisis has placed immense pressure on the nation, stretching resources to their limits and testing its resilience. Without decisive international action, enhanced regional cooperation, and a robust, comprehensive national policy on border security and crisis management, the crisis risks further destabilising Bangladesh, with serious implications for its security and future. Addressing these issues requires a comprehensive national strategy and global collaboration. Bangladesh must lead regional efforts to ensure Myanmar’s accountability while strengthening its internal resilience. With decisive action, the nation can transform this crisis into an opportunity for regional stability and humanitarian leadership.

Abu Ahmed Farid is an entrepreneur, CEO and founder of Dakwa Corner Bookstore, Malaysia.​
 

Border residents panic as explosions rock Teknaf
Gazi Firoz
from Teknaf border
Published: 07 Dec 2024, 19: 42

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Myanmar's Rakhine state's Maungdaw on one side of Naf river,Teknaf on this side File photo

The sound of explosions in Myanmar's Rakhine state's Maungdaw township rocks the border areas of Teknaf, Cox's Bazar.

Residents of Teknaf municipality, Sadar, Subrang, and Shah Porir Dwip have been spending sleepless nights due to the deafening explosions.
Sounds of explosions are heard one after another from from 4:00am to 11:00pm.

Earlier, continuous loud explosions were heard from Thursday evening until midnight on Friday.

During this time, planes were also seen circling in Myanmar’s sky. It is believed that the explosions are airstrikes aimed at the positions of the Arakan Army, which has taken control of Maungdaw Township.

Teknaf upazila nirbahi officer (UNO) Sheikh Ehsan Uddin confirmed this to Prothom Alo.

He said, "At first, the loud sounds and the shaking of houses terrified us. Later, I found out that the explosions were caused by bombs being dropped during clashes between Myanmar's government forces and rebel groups, causing the ground in Teknaf to shake. On the first day, I had to spend a sleepless night in Teknaf. I don’t know how people have been living with this for so long."

According to border residents, areas south of Maungdaw, including Ukilpara, Faizipara, Sikdarpara, Haripara, and Fatangja, have been in conflict for over a year. Most of Rakhine state is now under the control of the Arakan Army.

Myanmar’s government forces are conducting airstrikes, while several armed groups of Rohingyas have also joined the fight on the ground against the Arakan Army.

Mohammad Islam, a resident of Nayapara in Subrang union, said, "Many people spent the night outside their homes due to the sound of artillery from Myanmar. The house shakes every time there’s a blast. We are scared it might collapse any moment."

UNO Sheikh Ehsan Uddin said he talked to the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and the Coast Guard.

Extra vigilance and patrols have been increased along the border to prevent any illegal border crossings into Bangladesh, he added.​
 

Global consensus urgent for Rohingya repatriation
Says CA's high representative on Rohingya issue

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Global consensus is urgent for the Rohingya repatriation to Myanmar from Bangladesh, said Dr Khalilur Rahman, the high representative of the chief adviser for Rohingya and priority affairs.

He made the comment at a session on "Bangladesh in Crossroad: Governance, Democratic Reforms and the Roadmap post Sheikh Hasina" at the Doha Forum being held in Qatar.

In his six-minute video address, Dr Khalilur Rahman said Bangladesh has been providing shelter to nearly 12 lakh Rohingya for the last seven years only for the cause of humanity, despite many limitations.

"It has become challenging to continue this support without more support from the international community," he told the session.

The High Representative said an all-stakeholders' conference is being organised by the UN, and it is expected that the conference will facilitate the repatriation of the Rohingyas.

Dr Khalilur Rahman also presented the context of the July-August uprising in Bangladesh, saying how the Awami League regime killed people and injured thousands of them.

Now, there is a great opportunity for building a country based on democracy and equality.

"We can say that the reforms done were good when we will see that a farmer, worker or the children of marginalised groups can dream of leading the country. The interim government is working towards that end," Khalilur Rahman said.

He also said the interim government is being affected by the concerted, false and baseless news.

He expects more responsible and neighbourly cooperation from India for Bangladesh's transition from fascism to democracy.​
 

Major Myanmar rebel group sends delegation to China for talks
Agence France-Presse . Yangon 10 December, 2024, 01:15

A major Myanmar ethnic rebel group has sent a delegation to China for talks with its government, its spokesman said on Monday, as Beijing looks to end fighting along its southern border.

A delegation from the Kachin Independence Army had left on Sunday ‘for talks with the Chinese government’ at China’s invitation, Colonel Naw Bu said.

He did not give details on what the talks would be about or where they were being held.

China is the most important ally of the junta that seized power in Myanmar in 2021 but also maintains ties with several ethnic rebel groups that hold territory just over its border.

The past year has seen increased clashes between some of those groups and the junta across northern Myanmar, a vital link in Beijing’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road initiative.

KIA fighters were battling junta troops in the town of Bhamo on Monday, Naw Bu said.

‘They the Myanmar military used a lot of air strikes and artillery attacks to protect their bases,’ he said.

The KIA, which can call on around 7,000 fighters, has been battling the military for decades for autonomy and control of local resources in Kachin state.

The state is home to huge jade mines and rare heavy earth elements, most of which are exported to China.

In recent weeks two other Myanmar rebel groups in neighbouring Shan state said they were ready for China-brokered peace talks with the junta.

China has welcomed the moves, which analysts say came after Beijing pressured the groups to halt operations against the junta.

Myanmar is home to about a dozen ethnic rebel groups that have battled the military for decades for autonomy and control of lucrative resources including jade, timber and opium.

Some, including the KIA, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army, have given shelter and training to newer ‘People’s Defence Forces’ that sprang up to battle the military after it seized power in 2021.​
 

Bangladesh tightens border amid influx fear as Arakan Army seizes Maungdaw
Staff Correspondent 10 December, 2024, 11:41

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Myanmar border guards stand to provide security near the fence at a no-man's land between Myanmar and Bangladesh, near Taungpyolatyar village, Maungdaw, northern Rakhine State, Myanmar, on June 29, 2018. | UNB/AP photo

Bangladesh has beefed up security measures along its border with Myanmar as fighting rebel group Arakan Army on Sunday captured the remaining base of the Border Guard Police in the Rakhaine state.

Authorities concerned said that the latest development in Myanmar would further worsen the risk of a fresh Rohingya influx in Bangladesh.

On Sunday, Arakan Army, which one of the most powerful ethnic minority armed groups battling the Myanmar army, claimed the capture of the last outpost of the country’s border force in the strategic western town of Maungdaw, gaining full control of the 271-kilometre (168-mile) -long border with Bangladesh, United News of Bangladesh reported.

Officials of the local administration and law enforcement agencies told New Age on Tuesday that they were on high alert along the land border and the River Naf to check trespassing, influx in particular, of Myanmar citizens.

Refugee Relief and Repatriation commissioner Mohammed Mizanur Rahman stationed in Cox’s Bazar said that the Arakan Army had already shifted a huge number of Rohingyas from Buthidaung locality of Arakan to Maungdaw.

‘We have heard that around 2,00,000 Rohingyas have assembled along the Myanmar side of the border. They are struggling with food shortages. So there is potential risks of an influx in Bangladesh,’ Mizanur said.

The RRR commissioner has also requested law enforcement agencies to step up their surveillance along the border area.

Major Syed Istiaque Murshed, acting commanding officer at Teknaf Battalion (2 BGB) under the Border Guard Bangladesh’s Ramu Sector, said on Tuesday evening that the Arakan Army took over the whole land area across the Naf River.

‘We are on alert and doing our best to stop Rohingya influx and illegal drug trafficking,’ Istiaque told New Age in a written message, adding that the BGB personnel were carrying out ‘domination patrol’ over the Naf River on Sunday night.

The Border Guard Bangladesh conducted boat patrols from Border Reference Marker (BRM)-6 to BRM-10, covering vulnerable spots along the Naf River and asserting control over islands within Bangladesh’s territorial waters, said a press release issued by the force on Monday.

The Bangladesh Coast Guard also joined hands to intensify the border security. The force’s East Zone media officer Lieutenant Shakil told New Age on Tuesday that the Coast Guard’s two outposts on the River Naf increased patrols to stop trespassers through the waterway.

‘Additionally, we have sharpened our surveillance and intelligence,’ Shakil said.

As part of beefing up border security, the Teknaf upazila administration imposed a temporary ban on all kinds of transportation through the Naf River from Sunday afternoon for an indefinite period. The ban also covered fishing in the Bangladesh part of the river, upazila nirbahi officer SK Ahsan Uddin said on Tuesday afternoon.

‘Since Sunday evening, we have not heard the sounds of fire shots and bombing which became usual for the past one month,’ Ahsan said.

On Monday, the Associated Press quoted Khaing Thukha, a spokesperson for the Arakan Army, saying that the Arakan Army seized the last remaining military outpost in Maungdaw on Sunday.

An unverified press release of the Arakan Army also declared an indefinite ban on all transport of people and goods in the Myanmar side of the Naf River from Sunday afternoon.

The release said that the members of the ‘fascist’ Myanmar military junta along with their allies, including armed groups Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, Rohingya Solidarity Organisation, Arakan Rohingya Army, were trying to flee through the Naf River.

‘Therefore, due to military necessities and public security concerns, all river transportation in the Naf River (Rakhine side) will be indefinitely suspended starting from 3:30pm on December 8, 2024,’ the unverified release said.​
 

Dhaka to host int’l conference on Rohingya issue in Sept-Oct next: CA press secretary
BSS
Published: 10 Dec 2024, 22: 45

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Chief adviser’s press secretary Shafiqul Alam briefing newsmen at the Foreign Service Academy in the capital on Tuesday evening. PID

Bangladesh will hold an international conference on Rohingya crisis in Dhaka in September-October next year, said chief adviser’s press secretary Shafiqul Alam on Tuesday.

“The modalities of the conference will be finalised by April next and we expect that various countries of the world, including those, who are interested in this issue like the United Nation, European Union, China, India and USA, will participate in it,” he said while briefing newsmen at Foreign Service Academy in the capital on Tuesday evening.

In this connection, the press secretary said the government has been monitoring the Myanmar situation closely.

When asked, he said the chief adviser has appointed a high representative, who has solid professional background and a career diplomat to monitor the Rohingya crisis intensively and talk to stakeholders concerned.

He said chief adviser professor Muhammad Yunus presented the idea of holding the conference during the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) held in New York in September last. “We talked to the UN many times over the issue,” Alam added.

On 19 November 2024, Dr Khalilur Rahman was appointed as the ‘High Representative on Rohingya Crisis and Priority Issues Affairs’ to the chief adviser.

Chief adviser’s deputy press secretaries Abul Kalam Azad Majumder and Apurba Jahangir were also present at the press briefing.​
 
The nincompoop in the video suggests that Arakan Army will forcefully occupy Chittagong of Bangladesh. The total number of armed members of Arakan Army is approximately 40 thousand. The video is in Bengali.


 

Tension, fear on Teknaf frontier
Naf river route closed, trade with Myanmar stopped as Arakan Army claims taking control of border

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Locals and Rohingyas in Cox's Bazar are in fear amid reports of the Arakan Army's takeover of the Rakhine State and full control of the 270km Myanmar border with Bangladesh.

Due to security concerns, Teknaf upazila administration yesterday imposed restrictions on traffic on the Naf, which flows between Teknaf and Myanmar territory.

Boats that carry people and supplies between Teknaf and St Martin's Island had not operated yesterday, according to Rashid Ahmed, president of the local service trawler owners' association.

He hopes the restriction would be lifted today.

Faysal Anowar, a resident of Nayapara village, said, "We heard the sound of bombing and shelling coming from across the Naf river in Myanmar for weeks. We worry about the safety of our families."

As per international media reports, there had been intense fighting between the Myanmar junta and ethnic armed group Arakan Army. Locals say there has not been any bombing since Sunday, but military planes were frequently flying over the border.

Abdus Shukkur, a fisherman of Sanrang village, claimed that the Arakan Army detained several fishermen from the Naf estuary a few days ago.

"Sometimes they open fire on the Bangladeshi fishermen, saying that we are in their territory. We cannot risk our lives while fishing," he said.

Maulana Harun Amini, a resident of Ghumdhum area in Naikhongchhari, Bandarban, said he was afraid to go to his farm next to the border.

"Who knows when they will begin fighting again and one of us will become a victim?" he asked.

Contacted, Teknaf Upazila Nirbahi Officer Sheikh Ehsan Uddin said, "The estuary of the Naf is used by large trawlers that go to the sea. We restricted the movement of those trawlers through that part."

Abdul Jalil, president of fishing trawler owners' association in Teknaf, said despite risks, around 10 fishing trawlers went to the sea via the Naf.

"We are scared. This is our livelihood. That's why the fishermen are risking their lives," he said.

BANGLADESH-MYANMAR TRADE DISRUPTED

Jasim Uddin, general manager of Teknaf United Land Port Ltd, said, "The last boat to arrive from Myanmar with goods was a fishing trawler from Yangon on December 7. Currently, four Myanmar trawlers are at the land port jetty. The boatmen are not willing to return."

UNO Ehsan said the BGB and Coast Guards were on alert to prevent illegal entry to Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, Rohingya leaders in Cox's Bazar are concerned about the long-awaited repatriation process.

"We want to sit with the Arakan Army and talk about our chances of returning to our homeland," said Kamal Hossain, chairman of the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals Representative Committee in Cox's Bazar.

Mohammad Zubair, chairman of Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights, said people of his community were frequently calling him from Maungdaw township and saying that they were in fear of a crackdown on Rohingyas.

Many international media reported that the Arakan Army claimed the capture of the last army outpost in the strategic western town of Maungdaw, gaining full control of the territory along Bangladesh-Myanmer border on Sunday.

AP quoted the Arakan Army as saying that after claiming control over the northern part of Rakhine, it ordered the suspension of transport across the Naf because police and local Muslims affiliated with the army were attempting to escape by boat to Bangladesh.

AP reported, "The rebel group has been accused of major human rights violations, particularly involving its capture of the town of Buthidaung in mid-May, when it was accused of forcing an estimated 2 lakh residents, largely Rohingyas, to leave, and then setting fire to most of the buildings. It was accused of attacking Rohingya civilians fleeing the fighting in Maungdaw in August."​
 

Tension continues along border
Staff Correspondent 12 December, 2024, 00:32

Tension remained high along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border as of Wednesday evening amid a heightened risk of a fresh influx of Rohingya people as rebel group Arakan Army had established its full control along the border between the two countries in the Rakhine state.

Villagers dwelling close to the border in Bangladesh side shared their security concern. ‘Although the terrifying sounds of gun shots and bombing have stopped but this silence scares us. There is no certainty,’ said Aminul Islam from Teknaf on Wednesday afternoon.

No cargo trawlers from Myanmar arrived at Teknaf land port since Sunday afternoon as the upazila administration imposed an indefinite ban on vessel movement in the Bangladesh part of the Naf River, including the Teknaf-Saint Martins route.

Law enforcement agencies continued maintaining their beefed-up security measures along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border as of Wednesday. The security measures were stepped up following the Arakan Army’s capture of the last outpost of Myanmar’s Border Guard Police in the strategic western town of Maungdaw on Sunday.

Teknaf upazila administration, as did on Tuesday, repeated public announcements on Wednesday also about the indefinite ban on vessel movement in Naf River and safety measures.

Teknaf upazila nirbahi officer SK Ahsan Uddin confirmed on Wednesday evening that the border area remained silent since the Sunday evening.

‘Due to the unstable situation along Myanmar border, the administration has instructed Bangladeshi fishermen and all types of vessel operators not to venture into the Naf River until further notice,’ he said.

Syed Mohammed Anwar Hossain, manager of United Land Port Limited, which operates the Teknaf land port, said that vessels from Myanmar that docked earlier at the port remained stuck there, unable to return home.

According to him, a cargo trawler carrying fish docked at the port’s jetty on Friday. Currently, four cargo trawlers remained anchored at the jetty and goods were being unloaded from two of them.

Rashid Ahmad, president of the Saint Martins Service Trawler Owners’ Association, said that 27 service trawlers and 47 speed boats, operating on the Teknaf-Saint Martin route, remained docked at the jetty following instability deepened in the border area, summoning stricter surveillance by the Border Guard Bangladesh and Bangladesh Coast Guard.

Tourist ships, however, operating between Cox’s Bazar and Saint Martin Island via the Bay of Bengal, would continue as usual, he said.

BGB Teknaf Battalion acting commanding officer Major Syed Istiaque Murshed could not be reached over phone for comment.

Coast Guard East Zone media officer Lieutenant Shakil on Wednesday said that the border situation did not deteriorate further but they remained on alert along the Bangladesh part of the Naf River to stop trespassing through the waterway.

On Sunday the Arakan Army, one of the most powerful ethnic minority armed groups battling Myanmar’s army, claimed the capture of the last army outpost in Maungdaw, gaining full control of the 271-kilometre-long border with Bangladesh.

Because of the geography with hills and streams, Tambru border area with Myanmar in Naikhongchhari upazila of Bandarban also remains vulnerable. ‘However, the recent development in Maungdaw has no impact on here so far. BGB personnel remain on high alert to check trespassing,’ said Naikhongchhari upazila nirbahi officer Muhammad Mazharul Islam Chowdhury.​
 

Bangladesh closely monitoring Myanmar situation: foreign secretary


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Md Jashim Uddin

Bangladesh is keeping a close watch on the volatile situation in Myanmar, Foreign Secretary Md Jashim Uddin said today.

"We are keeping watch," he told media when asked whether Bangladesh will develop contact with the Arakan Army, which has taken control more than 80 percent of Rakhine State and the 271-kilometer border with Bangladesh.

"We will do whatever needed to protect our national interest. Our top priority for now is the repatriation of over a million Rohingyas taking shelter in Bangladesh," Jashim Uddin said at the foreign ministry today.

Bangladesh has been facing immense challenges in terms of funding and security because of the presence of the Rohingyas, most of whom fled a brutal military crackdown in 2017.

Bangladesh is now weighing various options for sustainable solution to the Rohingya since the formation of the interim government led by Prof Muhammad Yunus.

Asked about the Bangladeshi fishermen detained by the Indian coastguard, Jashim said Dhaka has communicated New Delhi for their repatriation.

Indian Coast Guard apprehended 78 Bangladeshi fishermen for allegedly entering Indian territorial waters. They were intercepted onboard two vessels, FV Laila-2 and FV Meghna-5, near the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL) last Monday.

The fishermen were taken to Paradip Port in Odisha and handed over to local police on Tuesday.​
 

Battle in Myanmar's Rakhine: Bangladesh authority allows limited vessel movement in Teknaf
Staff Correspondent 13 December, 2024, 01:08

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File photo

A few trawlers travelled from Shaporidwip to Saint Martin island via Kular Char on Thursday as the Teknaf upazila administration relaxed vessel ban through the Naf River.

On Sunday afternoon, the Teknaf upazila administration imposed a complete vessel ban for an indefinite period amid a tense situation along the Bangladesh-Myanman border.

The situation worsened as the rebel group Arakan Army, one of the most powerful ethnic minority armed groups battling Myanmar’s army, claimed the capture of the last army outpost in the strategic western town of Maungdaw, gaining full control of the 271-kilometer (168-mile) -long border with Bangladesh.

Teknaf upazila nirbahi officer SK Ahsan Uddin told New Age on Thursday evening that the upazila administration had relaxed the vessel ban for maintaining the commodity supply chain between mainland Teknaf to the Saint Martin Island.

He, however, reconfirmed that vessel ban over the Naf River between Bangladesh and Myanmar border was still effective.

Rashid Ahmad, president of the Saint Martin Service Trawler Owners’ Association, said three trawlers from Teknaf carried medicine, vegetables, oil, pulse, rice and other food items to the Saint Martin on Thursday evening.

He also said that Teknaf-based fishers continued fishing in the Bay of Bengal.

‘Fishing is halted only in the Naf River,’ Rashid said.

Bangladesh Coast Guard’s East Zone media officer Lieutenant Shakil said that the border situation didn’t deteriorate further.​
 

Gunshots in Rakhine rock Teknaf again
Staff Correspondent 13 December, 2024, 18:10

The sound of gunshots in neighbouring Rakhine state across the border shook Teknaf upazila again on Friday morning.

Several local residents said that the sound might have come from Magnipara, Putungpara, Sudhapara, Foyezipara and surrounding areas in Maungdaw of Rakhine in Myanmar.

‘It started at 7:30am and continued till 9:45am,’ Abdur Rahman, a residence of Shah Porir Dwip, told New Age.

Teknaf upazila nirbahi officer SK Ahsan Uddin confirmed the information on Friday evening.

‘However, no conflict situation was spotted surrounding the Bangladesh-Myanmar border area,’ he said, adding that the upazila administration allowed limited vessel movement in the Bangladesh side on the Teknaf-Saint Martins island route under the surveillance of Bangladesh Coast Guard.

He also mentioned that the upazila administration’s ban on vessel movement through the Naf between Bangladesh and Myanmar was still effective.

Rashid Ahmad, president of the Saint Martins Service Trawler Owners’ Association, said that four trawlers travelled to the coral island with daily supplies and three trawlers returned from there to Teknaf on Friday.

On Sunday fresh tension sparked in border upazila Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar as the Arakan Army, one of the most powerful ethnic minority armed groups battling Myanmar’s army, claimed the capture of the last security outpost in the strategic western town of Maungdaw, gaining full control of the 271-kilometre -long border with Bangladesh.

On the same day, the Arakan Army also imposed a vessel ban on the Myanmar side of the Naf.​
 

Dhaka won't take any hasty steps over Rohingya issue: Khalilur Rahman
UNB
Published :
Dec 14, 2024 00:17
Updated :
Dec 14, 2024 00:17

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Dr Khalilur Rahman, High Representative on the Rohingya Crisis and Matters of Priority to the Chief Adviser, said on Friday that Bangladesh would not take any hasty steps regarding the Rohingya issue without a proper assessment of the emerging situation in Rakhine State, Myanmar.

“We’re keeping watch on the emerging situation in Rakhine… We don’t want to do anything hastily. We’ll not take any steps without deep consideration,” he said while joining a discussion in the capital via a virtual platform.

Unity for Bangladesh, a non-profit youth-based voluntary organisation, arranged the discussion titled ‘Rohingya Crisis and Regional Security: Pertinent Considerations of Bangladesh’ at Professor Muzaffar Ahmed Chowdhury Auditorium in Dhaka University in the afternoon.

Dr Rahman said the issue is not only a humanitarian matter but also an issue of internal security or national security for Bangladesh. “So, we’ll take our next steps following sufficient assessments,” he said.

He noted that a standoff situation continues in Rakhine State, as the Arakan Army has taken control of about 80-85 per cent of the area, particularly the mainlands of the Rohingya, which have completely come under the control of the Arakan Army, a non-state actor.

Dr Rahman stated that Bangladesh needs to wait until the final situation in Myanmar is clear. “Our future engagement will depend on the situation that stands there,” he added.

Prof. CR Abrar, an expert on migration and refugee issues, stressed the need for significant investment in the Rohingya community for their education, health, livelihood, and other training to enable them to repatriate to their motherland with dignity and recognition of their identity.

He said Bangladesh needs to choose its allies to educate this community, as it is an international responsibility. He added that all international bodies and communities would be eager to provide all forms of support for their education, health, and training purposes.

Noting that what has been done in the name of their education is ineffective, Prof. Abrar said, “If they could stand in a strong position, then both the Arakan Army and Burmese Junta will take them back.”

He emphasized that Bangladesh should make a significant departure from its current policy and enable the community so they can defend themselves and their rights.

“I think our strength (in dealing with the Rohingya issue) will come when we make a significant investment in this community,” said Prof. Abrar.

Lt Gen (retd) Mahfuzur Rahman, former principal staff officer at the Armed Forces Division, stressed the need to adopt a proper policy to take advantage of the geopolitical and geostrategic situation. “I think we need to revisit our existing policy,” he said.

He emphasised the need for developing the Rohingya as human resources and creating leadership among them.

Mahfuzur stated that Bangladesh missed its opportunity three times between 2017 and 2024 to find a solution to the Rohingya issue, and now it is going to miss the fourth opportunity.

He said Bangladesh missed the first opportunity by not keeping displaced Rohingya in no man’s land during the 2017 exodus, the second one in 2022 by refusing the Arakan Army when its chief sought humanitarian support and sympathy from Bangladesh and stated they would take back the Rohingya, and the third one in February 2024 by not relocating some Rohingyas to a place inside Myanmar when the Bangladesh-Myanmar border remained unguarded for three weeks following the flight of Myanmar’s Border Guard Police.

Noting that now the National Unity Government is willing to accept the Rohingyas and provide them citizenship, the retired general said Bangladesh might miss this opportunity as well.

Maj Gen (retd) Nayeem Ashfak Chowdhury, a security analyst, and Dr Saima Ahmed, an international relations teacher at Dhaka University, as well as writer Altaf Parvez, also spoke at the discussion, which was presided over by Monzur Moin, the spokesman of Unity for Bangladesh.​
 

Battle in Myanmar's Rakhine State: Passenger vessels resume operation in Naf
Staff Correspondent 15 December, 2024, 00:41

The Teknaf upazila administration relaxed the ban on passenger vessels’ operation in the River Naf after Friday night’s discussion between the administration and the trawler owners on the security situation.

Teknaf upazila nirbahi officer SK Ahsan Uddin told New Age on Saturday that the trawlers carrying passengers and commodities were now allowed to move from Teknaf to Cox’s Bazar, Saint Martin Island and the Bay of Bengal.

‘No sounds of firing or explosions were heard since Friday noon. The situation seems quiet. Following the development, the ban on vessel movement was relaxed,’ he said

Vessel operators are instructed not to cross the international border line, he warned.

He added that fishing in the Naf River had been suspended for a long time. However, there was no restriction on the movement of fishing trawlers from the River Naf to the sea.

Rashid Ahmad, the president of the Saint Martin Service Trawler Owners’ Association, said that all the service trawlers from Shah Porir Dwip to Saint Martin’s Island had resumed operations.

After months of fighting with the Myanmar military junta, the Arakan Army claimed to have taken control of the town of Maungdaw on December 8. Following this, the Arakan Army issued a statement imposing an indefinite ban on navigation in the Myanmar-controlled portion of the River Naf.

In response to this situation, on Sunday, the Teknaf upazila administration imposed an indefinite ban on the movement of all vessels in the Bangladesh-controlled portion of the River Naf, including the Teknaf-Saint Martin’s route.

During the ban, special measures were taken on Thursday to deliver essential goods to Saint Martin’s Island.​
 

Several thousand Rohingya waiting to cross the Myanmar border into Bangladesh
Staff Correspondent &
Published: 15 Dec 2024, 08: 55

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Myanmar Rakhine state on the other side of Naf River Prothom Alo file photo

As Myanmar armed group Arakan Army took control of Maungdaw township in Rakhine state, several thousand of Rohingya men, women and children fear eviction in five nearby villages. Members of the armed group took over the Rohingya’s homes and gathered the villagers in place. Once these Rohingya people get a chance they might cross the Naf river and enter Bangladesh, but Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and the Coastguard heightened patrols on the Bangladesh border.

It has been learned after speaking to Rohingya leaders staying in Bangladesh that more than 37,000 Rohingyas were evicted from their homes in Sudhapara, Ukilpara, Sikderpara, Fayezipara and Nurullahpara nearby Maungdaw and their homes were also occupied.

Meanwhile, limited movement of vessels started on the Naf river on Friday afternoon after several days of closure. Tourists are still avoiding Tenaf and using the BIWTA jetty in Nuniachhara of Cox’s Bazar town to travel to Saint Martin’s Island. Trade through Teknaf land port also remained halted.

Several sources from the border area said the Arakan Army took control of about 270-kilometre area, including Maungdaw township, that borders Bangladesh by taking control of the country’s Border Guard Police’s 5 frontier battalion in the south of Maungdaw township on 8 December.

Rohingya organisation Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights (ARSPH) president Mohammad Jubayer told Prothom Alo that the Arakan Army drove out Rohingys people from their homes and gathered about 37,000 people in the Perangpru area. These Rohingya are being allowed to leave for Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia in exchange for money, but they cannot enter Bangladesh as they fail to pay the money.

“There has been a conflict between Rohingya and the Arakan Army for a long. When we were in Rakhaine the Arakan Army and the junta forces jointly tortured Rohingya people,” he added.

Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC) and additional secretary Mohammed Mizanur Rahman told Prothom Alo they are closing observing situations in Myanmar. Security has been beefed up in Naf river to prevent intrusion, and no intrusion happen until Saturday afternoon.

Limited movement of vessels began on Friday afternoon after a ban was lifted. Rashid Ahmed, president of the Tenkaf-Saint Martin Service Trawler Owners' Association, said many people dare not operate water vehicles in the Naf river due to fear of kidnapping and firing. Previously, 74 trawlers and speed boats were operated on this route, and a few of them are in operation now.

Amid the current situation, import and export had remained halted through Teknaf land port since 7 December, causing troubles to 45 Bangladesh traders as they purchased frozen fish, onions, garlic, turmeric and logs and kept those goods at Sittwe, formerly Akyab, to ship to Bangladesh. Traders cannot bring the imported goods to Teknaf port now because of the situation in Rakhine state.

Teknaf Land Port C&F Agent Association general secretary Ehteshamul Haque Bahadur said traders of Teknaf are in trouble as trade remained halted for eight days. Besides, there is no opportunity for talks as the armed group has taken control of the Rakhine state.

Teknaf land port customs officer BM Abdulah Al Masum said the government lost Tk 30 million in revenue per day due to the halt in trade.

This report appeared in the print and online editions of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Hasanul Banna​
 

Post-Coup Myanmar: Junta scares aid groups to hide hunger

Myanmar's ruling junta has suppressed information about a severe food crisis gripping the country by pressuring researchers not to collect data about hunger and aid workers not to publish it, a Reuters investigation has found.

In conversations over the past two years, junta representatives have warned senior aid workers against releasing data and analysis that indicate millions of people in Myanmar are experiencing serious hunger, according to people familiar with the matter.

In a sign of the sensitivity around this data, the world's leading hunger watchdog – the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) – in recent weeks removed its colour-coded assessment of Myanmar from the global map on its website where it displays the levels of hunger afflicting dozens of countries. The reason: fears for the safety of the researchers.

In another move to protect data collectors and analysts from the junta, the IPC never made public three detailed analyses that showed the war-torn Southeast Asian nation, once known as the rice bowl of Asia, was facing one of the worst food crises on the planet.

Reuters spoke to more than 30 aid workers, researchers, diplomatic sources and United Nations officials about hunger in Myanmar. Most declined to speak on the record, saying they feared retribution by the military. Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military ousted an elected government in 2021, sparking mass protests that escalated into an armed rebellion on many fronts.

An official at Myanmar's Ministry of Information didn't respond to questions for this story.

An IPC "Special Brief" on Myanmar, dated November 5 and reviewed by Reuters, said about 14.4 million people, or about a quarter of the population, were experiencing acute food insecurity in September and October this year. Acute food insecurity refers to food deprivation that threatens lives or livelihoods. The report projects that by next summer, 15 million people will face acute levels of food insecurity.

Underlying data from that report appeared on a UN website last month, but was later removed because of security concerns. A web page now says: "PAGE NOT FOUND."

The aid workers interviewed by Reuters described a harrowing environment in which most data must be collected clandestinely and aid agencies are afraid to publish their findings on malnutrition and food insecurity – or even share them with one another.

The fear is justified: Last year, Myanmar's military detained multiple food-security researchers, according to people familiar with the matter. The detentions haven't been publicized. Reuters was unable to determine what happened to the researchers.

The secrecy surrounding hunger research in Myanmar has hindered relief organizations' efforts to raise money for humanitarian aid because they can't use their findings to spotlight the severity of the problem, according to a diplomatic source. The UN's humanitarian response in Myanmar is one of the world's most severely underfunded. The UN has sought nearly $1 billion from donors for Myanmar aid this year but has received just 34 percent of the goal.

"I've not worked in many contexts like Myanmar where it's been so scrutinised that people have a fear of talking about an issue like food security and nutrition," the diplomatic source said.

Reuters also uncovered at least four examples of how the junta blocked aid distribution or seized food supplies intended for the hungry. One such spot is the western state of Rakhine, where there has been a surge in violence in the past year following the collapse of a ceasefire between a powerful rebel group called the Arakan Army and the military. In Rakhine, home to the persecuted Rohingya Muslim minority, the military in recent months has prevented the delivery of food and medicine to severely malnourished children in an area gripped by cholera, according to aid workers.

Hunger in Rakhine is so severe it is partly responsible for an exodus of 70,000 refugees this year to Bangladesh, almost 50 percent more than previously reported. In November, the United Nations Development Program warned that Rakhine is on the brink of an "acute famine," putting more than two million people at risk of starvation.

Tom Andrews, the UN's special envoy for human rights in Myanmar, told Reuters that the junta is "systematically restricting" humanitarian aid access, contributing to the spread of cholera and other infectious diseases. He said he has received reports that many of the hundreds of thousands of needy people cut off from international assistance "are on the brink of starvation."

The junta's rule has had a "catastrophic impact on agriculture and food supply," a spokesperson for the British embassy in Yangon said. "People are going hungry daily, children are malnourished, and millions are being plunged into poverty."

The situation in Myanmar highlights how the global system for tackling hunger and preventing famine – comprising UN agencies, non-governmental humanitarian groups and donor countries – is under enormous strain. Last year, almost 282 million people in 59 countries and territories faced high levels of acute food insecurity. Reuters is documenting the global hunger-relief crisis in a series of reports, including from Sudan and Afghanistan.

One of the chief obstacles to alleviating hunger is national governments that thwart aid efforts, including the collection of nutrition data, whether to avoid the embarrassment of needing outside help or to prevent food from reaching enemy-held territory. Besides Myanmar, Reuters found that in three other countries now suffering food crises – Ethiopia, Yemen and Sudan – governments or rebels have blocked or falsified the flow of data to the IPC, or have tried to suppress IPC findings.

In private discussions with UN officials, junta representatives have criticised data published on Myanmar's hunger crisis and have said they don't want the country to be considered a failed state or compared to conflict-torn places like Ukraine and Gaza. At one session in the capital, Myanmar's foreign minister addressed food security with UN officials over plates of snacks. There is no food security crisis, the minister said, according to people familiar with the meeting.

The junta's foreign ministry and information ministry didn't respond to emailed requests for comment. The junta has said it doesn't block humanitarian aid from international organisations and that it ensures available assistance reaches those in need.

It was hunger, not just the fighting, that pushed heavily-pregnant Juhara Begum to risk a perilous journey out of Myanmar's Rakhine state. The 25-year-old said her family had to survive on leaves and other vegetation. There was nothing to eat, so when her older son, a toddler, cried they gave him a piece of banana stem to suck on to relieve the hunger.

"It felt like hell," she said, speaking at a refugee camp in southern Bangladesh near the coastal town of Cox's Bazar. She arrived there last month after a days-long walk.

Other recent arrivals include 23-year-old Kasmida Begum, her husband Sulaiman and their two young children. She said there was so little to eat that she was unable to breastfeed their baby. "Where will milk be produced from, if I am hungry all the time?" she asked.

Myanmar's military ruled the country for decades until democratic reforms paved the way for the election of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's government in 2015. Her administration and aid organisations worked to improve nutrition across a vast and impoverished nation. Those gains have been reversed dramatically since 2021, when army chief Min Aung Hlaing overthrew Suu Kyi's democratically elected government and appointed himself prime minister. Suu Kyi's son said she is being held in solitary confinement in a prison in the capital, Naypyitaw.

After crushing mass protests triggered by the coup, the junta faced a nationwide uprising. New armed groups joined long-established ethnic armies to seize vast swathes of territory. The junta continues to lose ground rapidly. Its troops have killed thousands of civilians and jailed tens of thousands in prisons where torture is pervasive, according to the UN's human rights office. The UN says 3.4 million people have been internally displaced since the 2021 coup – a major driver of the hunger crisis, which has also been exacerbated by flooding and other extreme weather.

The junta has passed a law requiring all non-governmental organisations to register with authorities or risk jail. They are required to seek permission to carry out research, but authorisation is rarely granted, especially on food and nutrition-related topics, according to aid workers.

In interviews, several aid workers expressed fear they or staff from partner organisations would be arrested or have their operations shut down if they conducted their work openly. To minimise risk, the identities of some researchers who collect food and hunger data are kept secret even from one another, aid workers said.

Despite the intimidation, some headline data on Myanmar's food crisis has been published. In recent days, both the World Bank and the UN have released reports showing that hunger there is significantly worsening for millions of people.

Like other aid groups, the UN's World Food Program (WFP) delivers reports to local authorities, donors and partner organisations on its operations in the countries where it works. To protect its staff and local partners, the WFP, the UN's main food-aid distributor, hasn't published its situational reports for Myanmar since June 2023. The reports provide the latest updates on the WFP's activities and responses to emergencies. The WFP also hasn't released its Annual Country Report for Myanmar since 2022.

Collecting data is challenging. The conflict and mass displacement have made it dangerous and impractical to conduct in-person nutrition surveys, researchers said. Gauging malnutrition of children, for instance, often requires researchers to visit homes and clinics and measure upper-arm circumferences.

The military has also blocked attempts to conduct a nationwide nutrition study, saying it couldn't ensure the safety of the survey staff, one UN official said. The last such study was conducted in 2015 and 2016 – making the data nearly a decade old.

Some aid organisations have found ways to produce limited surveys. Reuters learned of two studies conducted in recent months that found high levels of child stunting and wasting, the most severe and life-threatening form of malnutrition.

One focused on children in Rakhine state. It found that the majority of children surveyed were reported to be sick and many were malnourished. The other survey found stunting was evident in 65 percent of children surveyed in parts of Myanmar's southeast, where hundreds of thousands have been displaced by recent fighting.

The studies haven't been published for fear of retribution by the military, people familiar with them said.

The junta has blocked the supply of rice and other food, medicine and essentials into parts of Rakhine and other war zones, multiple aid workers told Reuters. During an outbreak of cholera in recent months, the military also blocked sanitation work in squalid camps in Rakhine where Rohingyas are confined. And the junta has severely restricted phone and internet access to vast areas, including the most of Rakhine state.

The fighting between the military and rebel forces has damaged the facilities of humanitarian relief organisations, harming their ability to distribute aid.

The UN human rights office last year publicly accused Myanmar's military rulers of burning food stores and restricting aid access. The office said aid providers were consistently exposed to risk of arrest and harassment by the junta.

In June of this year, clashes escalated in Rakhine's Maungdaw township between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army rebel group. Late that month, a WFP warehouse there with enough food and supplies to sustain 64,000 people for a month was set alight, according to the food-aid distributor. Video footage released by the Arakan Army shows flames and smoke billowing out of two buildings as people walk away with stuffed white sacks.

The Arakan Army accused the military of burning the warehouse; the junta blamed the rebels and said the military had rescued the food and distributed it to the local population. The WFP didn't assign blame for the arson attack.

The junta and the Arakan Army didn't respond to questions about the fire at the warehouse or what happened to its contents.

Over the past year, as fighting has intensified across the country, skyrocketing food prices have rendered staples unaffordable to many. The junta's economic policies, including import restrictions, have contributed to inflation, researchers said.

Some of the most dire food insecurity in the country is among displaced people in Rakhine state, according to the IPC's unreleased November report.

Food prices in Rakhine have risen 154 percent in the last year as of October, with the cost of vegetables having more than quadrupled, according to a UN unit that compiles Myanmar data. The price of rice, a national staple, has also soared. In one Rakhine township it was more than 10 times more expensive in July than at the start of 2021, according to the United Nations Development Program.

Five refugees who recently fled Rakhine described sharp increases in food prices. Some said they were unable to afford even an onion.

About 70,000 people from Rakhine state have crossed into Bangladesh this year, according to a Bangladesh official. That is nearly 50 percent higher than the 46,000 new refugees from Myanmar the UN said it recorded in Bangladesh this year through September. Many are victims of "hunger-induced displacement," the Bangladesh official said.

Dark scars and small bulbous blisters cover the feet of Juhara Begum and her husband Rahimullah – reminders of their dangerous journey out of Rakhine. They were among several refugees who said they starved after the Arakan Army looted supplies and expelled them from their homes near the town of Buthidaung, Myanmar's largest Rohingya settlement, which the rebel group attacked in May.

"No markets were open. There was no healthcare, no help from anyone. We never received any aid," said Rahimullah. The couple now live in a bamboo-and-plastic shack in a refugee camp in Bangladesh, surrounded by more than a million other Rohingyas. Many were expelled in a military-led ethnic cleansing campaign in 2017.

His family would have been killed or "starved to death" if they had stayed, said Rahimullah.

Arakan Army spokesman Khine Thu Kha told Reuters there was no looting in areas under the militia's control. He has previously denied that the Arakan Army targeted the Rohingyas.

Mohammad Munna, 42, said his family had to forage for sustenance in Rakhine after being driven from their home. They survived on bamboo shoots, tapioca leaves and fruit. His children cried themselves to sleep from hunger, he said.

A neighbour's children, aged two and four, died after suffering from diarrhoea in their burned-down house, according to Munna. Healthcare and medicine were "non-existent," he said.

A day later their mother, suffering from fever, died as well.​
 

Rohingya repatriation issue amid changing realities
SYED FATTAHUL ALIM
Published :
Dec 17, 2024 00:16
Updated :
Dec 17, 2024 00:16

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With the insurgent ethnic armed group of Myanmar, the Arakan Army (AA), gaining full control of Maungdaw township on the bank of Naf river that separates Bangladesh from the Rakhine state of Myanmar, it appears that the Myanmar junta has finally lost its westernmost state to the armed rebels. The development calls for cautious monitoring by the government as it is directly linked to the country's border security as well as the issue of repatriating more than a million Rohingya refugees now staying in different camps in Bangladesh. Notably, following a pogrom carried out between October 2016 and August 2017 by the Myanmar junta on the Rohingya people in the Rakhine state, which is their ancestral abode, close to a million Rohingya men, women and children fled to Bangladesh to save their lives. But even after seven years of parleys with Myanmar authorities, no meaningful progress could be made about repatriating the Rohingya to their homeland, the Rakhine state of Myanmar. Now that the Arakan Army (AA) is the de facto ruler of the Rakhine state of Myanmar, Bangladesh should align its Rohingya policy to the emerging realities by establishing contact with AA. Since the AA now controls their side of the entire 271-km border with Bangladesh, they (the AA) are also our neighbour in the present circumstances. And as the situation in the Rakhine state is still fluid and AA is a non-state actor, the interim government will have to tread carefully on the subject.

In this connection, the interim government is learnt to have taken the initiative to communicate with the AA. And the Chief Adviser's Special Representative on Rohingya issues, Dr Khalilur Rahman, told a recently-held discussion meet that as the AA has seized about 80 to 85 per cent area of the Rakhine state and Rohingya-populated areas are among them, the situation demands due attention. But he was for handling the matter with caution. However, initiative has meanwhile been taken to engage with AA for managing security of the border between Bangladesh and the Rakhine State of Myanmar.

And so far as the repatriation of the Rohingya refugees is concerned, the issue has become further complicated due to AA's strained relation with the Rohingya community.

Last May, after AA's capturing Buthidaung, a Rohingya majority township in the southwest of the State, a mass expulsion of the Rohingya population and widespread arson attacks on their homes and properties took place. Since July, about 60,000 members of the Rohingya fled the Rakhine state and took refuge in Bangladesh adding to the existing population in the refugee camps in Bangladesh. There are also allegations from the Rights bodies that Rohingya civilians were massacred in Maundaw in August, which AA denied. However, AA at the same time claimed that Rohingya insurgents are fighting against them alongside the Myanmar military. There is truth in AA's allegation since the Rohingya insurgent group, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), is reportedly fighting the AA. There are also others who have reportedly been press-ganged into joining the Myanmar military to fight anti-junta rebels. Members of the Rohingya community who have joined or have been forced to do so say they have no other choice.

One might recall at this point that during the massacre of the Rohingya between October 2016 and August 2017, their (Rohingya community's) Buddhist neighbours actively participated in the pogrom by killing, setting fire to Rohingya houses and plundering their properties. The Arakan Army (AA) is essentially a Buddhist-dominant rebel outfit that won't simply tolerate the Rohingya in their midst. Which is why some Rohingya fighters are of the view that the Myanmar army won't recognise them as citizens of Myanmar, but the AA won't even allow them to exist. So, the Rohingya are caught between a rock and a hard place.

Understandably, the Rohingya repatriation issue is indeed getting thornier by the day. The sensitivity of issue would, therefore, require those in the repatriation talks to have special talent in the art of negotiation.

 

Rebel group recaptures its HQ after 30 years

A Myanmar ethnic rebel group said yesterday it had recaptured its headquarters from the Myanmar military, almost 30 years after it was forced out.

Karen National Union (KNU) fighters had seized Manerplaw on the Thai border following days of fighting, KNU leader Saw Thamain Tun told AFP.

Myanmar junta troops "still want to take it back and they used drones and tried to bomb our troops," he said. "But, our troops took the base already," he said.

For years Manerplaw was the headquarters of the KNU's decades-long armed struggle for rights for the Karen minority and home to other dissident politicians opposing Myanmar's then-junta.

Following a split within the Christian-majority KNU, the junta and a breakaway Buddhist faction captured the base in 1995, sending thousands fleeing into Thailand.​
 

24 Rohingyas held while trying to flee Bhasan Char

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This aerial view of Bhasan Char shows a portion of the housing facilities that has been built on the island to relocate the Rohingyas from Cox’s Bazar. File Photo

Members of Bangladesh Coast Guard detained 24 Rohingyas, including men, women, and children, at Parki Beach in Anwara upazila of Chattogram while they were attempting to flee from Bhasan Char.

Lt Shakil Mehbub, media officer of the Coast Guard East Zone, told The Daily Star that the Rohingyas fled from the Bhasan Char camp and landed at Parki Beach in Anwara this morning while en route to Cox's Bazar via boat.

Upon noticing the refugees, the coast guard personnel detained them and informed local police, he said.

"They will be sent back to the Bhasan Char Rohingya camp," the media officer added.​
 

US worried over conflict in Rakhine State: Millar
Calls for media freedom in Bangladesh

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The United States has expressed concern over the ongoing conflict in Myanmar's Rakhine State and its potential to destabilise the region.

Speaking at a press briefing in Washington yesterday, US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller emphasised the urgency of addressing the crisis.

"We remain concerned by the conflict and its potential to undermine regional stability and security. Helping resolve the Rohingya refugee crisis remains a priority for us.

"We will continue to work with Bangladesh to support the Rohingya and members of other vulnerable communities from Burma [Myanmar] who have taken refuge there," Miller added.

The ongoing conflict has significantly escalated the humanitarian crisis in the region. The Arakan Army, an ethnic armed group, now controls more than 80 percent of Rakhine State, according to media reports.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary General António Guterres has assured UN's full support for the high-level conference on Rohingya to be held in early next year.

He expressed his deep concern over the plight of the Rohingyas and highly commended Bangladesh for sheltering the displaced Rohingyas when Permanent Representative of Bangladesh to the UN Muhammad Abdul Muhith paid farewell call on Guterres in New York on Tuesday.​
 

Myanmar briefs neighbours on election plans
Agence France-Presse . Bangkok, Thailand 21 December, 2024, 04:58

Myanmar’s junta-appointed foreign minister briefed officials from five neighbouring countries on the military’s repeatedly delayed plans to hold elections, Thailand’s foreign minister said on Thursday.

The Myanmar military seized power in 2021, making unsubstantiated claims of massive electoral fraud in 2020 polls won resoundingly by the Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy.

It has since unleashed a bloody crackdown on dissent and as fighting ravages swathes of the country has repeatedly delayed plans for fresh polls that critics say will be neither free nor fair.

Junta-appointed foreign minister Than Swe met diplomats from China, India, Bangladesh, Laos and Thailand for an ‘informal consultation’, Thai foreign ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balankura told reporters.

Myanmar ‘outlined very broadly that progress is being made towards an election’ in 2025, he said, adding that no details, including an exact date, were discussed.

The talks in Bangkok were hosted by Thai foreign minister Maris Sangiampongsa and come a day ahead of informal talks on Myanmar hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, has made little progress towards resolving the Myanmar crisis.

Thailand, which regularly hosts thousands of people fleeing the conflict, has held its own bilateral talks with Myanmar’s junta leaders.

In 2023 its then foreign minister also said he had met briefly with Suu Kyi, who has been in military custody since the coup.

The junta has several times pushed back a timetable for fresh polls as it struggles to crush widespread opposition to its rule from ethnic rebel groups and pro-democracy ‘People’s Defence Forces.

In 2022, the junta-stacked election commission announced that Suu Kyi’s NLD would be dissolved for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law.

China, the junta’s most important ally, has grown increasingly alarmed at the conflict on its doorstep and in October called for a ‘reconciliation led by all people of Myanmar’.

Earlier this year, its foreign minister said Beijing backed the junta’s plans for polls.

The United States has said any elections under the junta would be a ‘sham’, while analysts say polls would be targeted by the military's opponents and spark further bloodshed.​
 

Dhaka wants to see democracy in Myanmar
Both Bangladesh and India also talked about extending support to the South Asian neighbouring country in this regard, if necessary
Diplomatic Correspondent
Dhaka
Updated: 20 Dec 2024, 16: 03


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This handout picture taken and released by Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 19 December 2024 shows (L-R) Foreign Secretary of the Republic of India Vikram Misri, Foreign Affairs Minister of Bangladesh Md. Touhid Hossain, Deputy Prime Minister and Union Minister for Foreign Affairs of Myanmar Than Swe, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Thailand Maris Sangiampongsa, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Lao PDR Thongsavanh Phomvihane and Vice Foreign Minister of China Sun Weidong posing for a group photo during a six-nation regional meeting in Bangkok AFP

The Rohingya people who have taken shelter in Bangladesh want a conducive environment in Rakhine state in Myanmar so that they could return to their homeland with safety and dignity. That is why Bangladesh wants to see a sustainable peace, stability and democracy in the neighbouring country.

Dhaka also has called for a roadmap to ensure repatriation of Rohingya people in Rakhine.

Bangladesh foreign adviser Md Touhid Hossain highlighted the position of Bangladesh on the future of Myanmar and Rohingya repatriation at an informal meeting in Bangkok of Thailand on Thursday.

Diplomatic sources from Bangkok and Dhaka informed Prothom Alo that alongside Bangladesh, India also put emphasis on democratic transition of Myanmar in the meeting that was organised at the initiative of Thailand foreign minister Maris Sangiampongsa.

Both Bangladesh and India also talked about extending support to the South Asian neighbouring country in this regard, if necessary.

Thailand also discussed urging all sides of Myanmar to return to democracy through holding elections.

Myanmar deputy prime minister and foreign minister Than Swe mentioned about organising elections by 2025 by the military government led by senior General Min Aung Hlaing. He, however, did not say anything about the roadmap.

Than Swe stated in the meeting that the incumbent Myanmar government is hopeful of holding an election next year. But he expressed doubts whether the election could be organised with everyone’s participation or not.

Bangladesh, India, Thailand and Laos joined the discussion, organised by Thailand, on the ensuing law and order situation in Myanmar and the country’s future.

Before joining the six-nation discussion, foreign adviser Touhid Hossain attended a bilateral meeting with Myanmar foreign minister Than Swe.

A source from Bangkok informed Prothom Alo that the one-hour-long meeting discussed various bilateral issues, including Rohingya repatriation, where both sides agreed to take the relationship forward.

They also agreed to work together in the light of the memorandum of understanding the two countries signed in November 2017 to resolve the Rohingya crisis. During the discussion, the Myanmar foreign minister reiterated his country’s goodwill to resolve the crisis surrounding Rohingya repatriation.

At that time, Touhid Hossain told him that the precondition for repatriation of Rohingya is to create a conducive environment in the Rakhine state. Myanmar has to create such an environment in the state so that the Rohingya people return to their homeland voluntarily. But currently the environment there is not conducive as the Arakan Army has taken control there. That is why the first task of the Myanmar government is to make Rakhine safe.

Six countries discussion

Speaking at the six-country meeting, Touhid Hossain said that another 60,000 Rohingya people crossed the border into Bangladesh in the last few months. That means, the Rohingya situation is worrying.

He also expressed grave concerns about the ensuing armed violence along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and various types of crimes regarding arms and drugs. He reiterated the call for a roadmap to Rohingya repatriation to ensure stability in the Rakhine state.

Touhid requested the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other major players of the region to play more active roles for peace, security and democracy in Myanmar. He also extended help from the Bangladesh side for economic reconstitution of Rakhine state and in other necessary spheres.

Touhid Hossain once again put emphasis on the three-point proposals chief adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus made in his address to the UN General Assembly in September this year.

He also stressed on sharing intelligence information among the law enforcement agencies and border guards to curb transborder crimes.

In the meeting, Myanmar foreign minister Than Swe mentioned about his government’s attempt to create a conducive environment for elections in the country in 2025.

Alleging that transborder criminals have been stoking armed violence in his country, Swe mentioned Myanmar government’s initiatives to bring such crimes under control.

He also spoke about his government’s initiatives to repatriate the Rohingya people.

China’s deputy minister for foreign affairs and India’s foreign secretary reasserted their support to the peace initiatives taken by Myanmar for regional security and development.

Both the countries informed the meeting about their initiatives for dialogues among various stakeholders of Myanmar and said they have been helping find a common ground for an inclusive and stable system in the country.

Thailand's foreign minister emphasised forming an informal forum like this discussion.​
 

Rebels ‘capture junta western command in Rakhine state’

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A Myanmar ethnic rebel group has captured a military regional command in Rakhine state, it said, in what would be a major blow to the junta.

The Arakan Army (AA) had "completely captured" the western regional command at Ann on Friday after weeks of fighting, the group said in a statement on its Telegram channel.

Ann would be the second regional military command to fall to ethnic rebels in five months, and a huge blow to the military.

Myanmar's military has 14 regional commands across the country with many of them currently fighting established ethnic rebel groups or newer "People's Defence Forces" that have sprung up to battle the military's 2021 coup.

Fighting has rocked Rakhine state since the AA attacked security forces in November last year, ending a ceasefire that had largely held since the putsch.

AA fighters have seized swathes of territory in the state that is home to China and India-backed port projects and all but cut off state capital Sittwe.

The AA posted photos of a man whom it said was the Ann deputy regional commander, in the custody of its fighters.

AFP was unable to confirm that information and has contacted the AA's spokesman for comment.

AFP was unable to reach people on the ground around Ann where internet and phone services are patchy.

In decades of on-off fighting since independence from Britain in 1948 the military had never lost a regional military command until last August, when the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) captured the northeastern command in Lashio in Shan state.

Myanmar's borderlands are home to myriad ethnic armed groups who have battled the military since independence for autonomy and control of lucrative resources.

Last month the UN warned Rakhine state was heading towards famine, as ongoing clashes squeeze commerce and agricultural production.

"Rakhine's economy has stopped functioning," the report from the UN Development Programme said, projecting "famine conditions by mid-2025" if current levels of food insecurity were left unaddressed.​
 

Conflict in Rakhine: Dhaka cannot engage with non-state actors
Says Touhid

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Photo: AFP

Bangladesh has called on Myanmar to address the ongoing crisis in the Rakhine state and its borders, stressing that it cannot engage in negotiations with non-state actors, such as the Arakan Army.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held on Thursday in Thailand.

During the meeting, Touhid also emphasised that peace and stability in the region would remain elusive without a resolution to the Rohingya crisis.

Senior representatives from Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, China, Laos, and other nations attended the consultation focused on Myanmar.

"I informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under your control. Non-state actors like the Arakan Army are controlling it. As a state, we cannot engage with them. Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine," Touhid yesterday told reporters in the capital, sharing details of his discussions at the consultation.

In reply, Myanmar said they are trying to regain control of the border.

Touhid said that the meeting focused on a few key issues regarding Myanmar, including the border, drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and its political future.

On Myanmar's political future, Touhid noted that all participants expressed support for its efforts to resolve internal issues and move forward.

"Everyone said they would support Myanmar, and if they choose a federal structure, we will not intervene. But we want a resolution," Touhid said.

The meeting on Thursday was chaired by Thailand's Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsar. The attendees included Myanmar's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe, Laos's Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, and China's Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.

Meanwhile, speaking as the chief guest at an international seminar in Dhaka yesterday, the foreign adviser said peace in Myanmar is crucial to unlocking the full potential of the Bay of Bengal and its surrounding countries and that peace cannot be achieved without solving the Rohingya crisis.

"Peace and order will not be possible in Myanmar, and consequently in the region, unless the safe and secure return of Rohingyas to their homes," he said at the seminar titled "Reconnecting the Bay of Bengal Region: Exploring the Convergence of Interest," at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) in the capital.

Noting that a civil war situation is currently prevailing in Myanmar, he said at least 1.2 million Rohingyas, who have fled the Rakhine state facing extreme atrocities, have fled to Bangladesh in the last seven years.

"There has been no progress in their repatriation and the situation is further complicated by a non-state actor, the Arakan Army, taking control of the entire border with Bangladesh," he said.

"It is on Myanmar and the regional powers to create a congenial atmosphere for their return," said the foreign adviser.

Supported by the Embassy of Japan, the BIISS, in collaboration with the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), hosted the international seminar.

He said that the Bay of Bengal has emerged as a focal point of geopolitical and economic activity with its vast natural resources, crucial shipping routes, and potential for economic integration.

Touhid said the countries surrounding the Bay and other stakeholders should align their diverse interests, "ensuring that the Bay of Bengal becomes a region of collaboration rather than conflict; a hub of connectivity rather than contention".

He said Bangladesh is uniquely poised to become a regional transit hub and a key player in the global value chain with its strategic location and growing industrial base.

"In order to unlock these possibilities, Bangladesh must address pressing challenges and seize emerging opportunities," the adviser said.

He acknowledged that initiatives like the "Bay of Bengal Industrial Value Chain," championed by Japan, provide a blueprint for achieving this transformation by leveraging investment, technology, and labour.

The adviser also lauded Japan's overall contribution to Bangladesh's development.

Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Iwama Kiminori, BIISS Chairman Gousal Azam Sarkar and Director General Major General Iftekhar Anis, among others, spoke at the event.

Responding to a question about a potential new influx of Rohingyas, Touhid said, though the government is concerned, he does not believe such an event is on the cards.​
 

Bangladesh presses Myanmar to resolve border issue
Published :
Dec 22, 2024 17:20
Updated :
Dec 22, 2024 17:20

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Bangladesh has called on Myanmar to address the ongoing border and Rakhine issues, stressing that it cannot engage in negotiations with non-state actors, such as the Arakan Army, over control of the border.

Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held on Thursday in Thailand.

Senior representatives from Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, China, Laos, and other nations attended the consultation, BSS reports.

"I informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under your control. It is now controlled by non-state actors like the Arakan Army. As a state, we cannot engage with them. Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine," Hossain told reporters, sharing details of his discussions at the informal consultation.

He said, in reply, Myanmar informed him that they are trying to take over control of the border to resolve the issue.

Hossain reaffirmed Bangladesh’s policy of not allowing any further Rohingya refugees to enter the country.

However, he acknowledged that, under certain circumstances, Bangladesh had been compelled to accept 60,000 Rohingyas through various unofficial routes.

He also highlighted widespread corruption at the border, which facilitates the entry of Rohingyas.

"They are not entering through a single route; they are coming through multiple routes, making it very difficult to stop," Hossain said.

Responding to a question about a potential new influx of Rohingyas, Hossain dismissed these fears.

"I do not believe another influx will occur, although many are concerned. We too share these concerns, but we must take measures to prevent it, working with the international community," he said.

The meeting in Thailand on Thursday was chaired by Thailand's Foreign Minister, Maris Sangiampongsar, and included Myanmar's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe, Laos's Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, and China's Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.

Bangladesh was represented by Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain.

Hossain mentioned that the meeting focused on three main issues: the border, drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and Myanmar’s political future.

During the meeting, Hossain emphasised that peace and stability in the region would remain elusive without a resolution to the Rohingya crisis.

"Criminals are present on both sides of the border and in the camps, and I highlighted these concerns," he added.

On Myanmar's political future, Hossain noted that all participants expressed support for Myanmar’s efforts to resolve its internal issues and move forward.

“Everyone said they would support Myanmar, and if they choose a federal structure, we will not intervene. But we want a resolution," Hossain said.

Regarding border issues, the adviser explained that the discussions mainly focused on the northeastern and southern borders, with particular attention given to the western border, where Bangladesh has strategic interests.

Concerns were also raised about the rise of scam centres engaged in internet crimes, which have been troubling Myanmar, along with ongoing issues such as drug trafficking and border-related criminal activities.

Representatives from other countries urged Myanmar to take appropriate measures to address these concerns.​
 

Bangladesh must stay vigilant amid growing Myanmar crisis
The situation is becoming increasingly complex

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VISUAL: STAR

The ongoing conflict in Myanmar between the military junta, the Arakan Army, and other rebel groups has thrown up yet another curveball for Bangladesh. The Arakan Army recently claimed to have captured the last Myanmar army outpost in the strategic western town of Maungdaw, thereby gaining full control of the 271-kilometre-long border with Bangladesh. In light of this development, Bangladesh has urged Myanmar to address the ongoing crisis in Rakhine State and along its borders, emphasising that it cannot negotiate with non-state actors like the Arakan Army.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held in Thailand on December 19. He also stressed that peace and stability in the region would remain unattainable without resolving the Rohingya crisis, which necessitates their safe and secure repatriation to Myanmar. According to the foreign adviser, at least 1.2 million Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh over the past seven years due to Myanmar's civil war and the persecution of Rohingyas. Moreover, Bangladesh recently had to accept over 60,000 additional Rohingyas through various unofficial channels, despite its decision to prohibit new arrivals. This has been attributed to corruption at the border, which has left the Bangladesh government with limited options.

Bangladesh recently had to accept over 60,000 additional Rohingyas through various unofficial channels, despite its decision to prohibit new arrivals. This has been attributed to corruption at the border, which has left the Bangladesh government with limited options.

Clearly, the situation is becoming increasingly complex and concerning for Bangladesh. Corruption along the border, facilitating the influx of Rohingyas and potentially fuelling drug, weapon, and human trafficking, poses a growing security threat. Therefore, it is imperative for the government to address these issues urgently before they escalate further. Moreover, given the current border situation, progress in the Rohingya repatriation process has completely stalled. But how long can Bangladesh continue to provide shelter to them, especially with foreign aid to support Rohingyas steadily dwindling in recent years? The economic, environmental, and social burdens Bangladesh is shouldering to accommodate the Rohingyas are becoming more unsustainable by the day. The potential for further destabilisation, both for Bangladesh and the broader region, continues to grow because of the conflict.

The recent escalation of violence in Rakhine has again raised fears of a revival of organised violence against members of the Muslim Rohingya minority community, similar to that which drove huge numbers of them to flee to Bangladesh in 2017. Under these circumstances, Bangladesh must be extra vigilant about securing its border with Myanmar. At the same time, with the aid of the international community, the government should persuade the Myanmar junta and the various rebel factions to reach a peaceful resolution through dialogue for the sake of restoring regional stability.​
 

Bangladesh reaffirms to stop further infiltration as conflicts in Myanmar escalate
FE ONLINE DESK
Published :
Dec 24, 2024 22:14
Updated :
Dec 24, 2024 22:14

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Amid escalating conflicts in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, Bangladesh on Tuesday reiterated that it would take all necessary steps to ensure required security along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and stop further infiltration into Bangladesh.

“Bangladesh will do whatever is necessary for its securing its border. All relevant agencies of the Bangladesh government, including the BGB (Border Guard Bangladesh), are on the highest and appropriate alert in this regard to prevent new infiltration into Bangladesh,” spokesperson at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mohammad Rafiqul Alam told reporters at its weekly briefing.

On December 8, he said, the Arakan Army captured Maungdaw city in Rakhine State, taking control of 13 out of 17 cities, reports UNB.

Responding to a question, Rafiqul Alam said it is difficult to say how many people are waiting on the other side of the border.

Bangladesh informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under their control; rather it is now controlled by non-state actors like the Arakan Army.

As a state, Bangladesh says, it cannot engage with a non-state actor and Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine.

Bangladesh renewed the call for a "comprehensive roadmap" for Rohingya repatriation with priority attached to ensuring stability in Rakhine State.

On Sunday, Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain said Bangladesh had to accept over 60,000 Rohingyas under certain circumstances through various unofficial channels, including border-related corruption, despite its decision in principle not to allow any new arrivals from Myanmar.

“We had a position in principle that no new arrival one will be allowed. No one was allowed formally. Another thing we need to keep in mind is that there is huge corruption at the border. And it is true,” he said while talking to reporters at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on his recent informal consultation at the ministerial level among Myanmar and its five neighbouring countries.

The six-nation consultation was held in Bangkok on Thursday under the chairmanship of the Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa.

The meeting was attended, among others, by Myanmar Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Than Swe.

Responding to a question, Hossain said the Rohingyas are not entering Bangladesh through a single route; they are coming through multiple routes, making it very difficult to stop.

Asked about a potential new influx of Rohingya refugees, he dismissed such possibilities. "I do not believe another influx will occur, although many are concerned. We too share these concerns, but we must take measures to prevent it, working with the international community," Hossain said.

Bangladesh is aware of the civil war situation currently prevailing in Myanmar, and the 1.2 million Rohingyas who were forcibly displaced from the Rakhine state under extreme atrocities, and are sheltered in Bangladesh for the last 7 plus years.

There has been no progress in their repatriation and the situation is further complicated by a non-state actor, the Arakan Army taking control of the entire border with Bangladesh, Adviser Hossain said.

Referring to his meeting in Bangkok, the Foreign Adviser said, "I told them in no uncertain terms that peace and order will not be possible in Myanmar, and consequently in the region, unless the Rohingyas lodged in Myanmar can go back to their homes with security and rights."

"It is incumbent on Myanmar and the regional powers to create a congenial atmosphere for their return, he said. “I had the scope to talk in detail as it was an informal discussion and I explained our position clearly,” Hossain told reporters at the foreign ministry.

“If Rohingya problem is not resolved, peace and stability that you are thinking of will never be achieved,” he said, while conveying Bangladesh’s position during the meeting in Bangkok.​
 

Rohingya humanitarian crisis
by Serajul I Bhuiyan 26 December, 2024, 00:00

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The photograph taken in September 12 shows a view of the Kutupalong Rohingya camp in Ukhia, Cox’s Bazar. | Agence France-Presse/Munir uz Zaman

THE Rohingya issue is a telling indicator of how the crisis calls for urgent solidarity across borders in the wake of unimaginable human agony. Since August 2017, when Myanmar’s military launched a campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingyas in Rakhine State, Bangladesh opened its borders to more than a million individuals. While this unparalleled humanitarian response has earned widespread international acclaim, the weight of this crisis bears heavily on Bangladesh. Strained national resources, a politicised domestic debate and a reordered set of diplomatic relations have pulled Bangladesh into a precarious balancing act. For the international community, the crisis is not purely a regional affair but a common cause that demands concerted intervention.

The Rohingyas, an overwhelmingly Muslim minority in a Buddhist-majority Myanmar, have been subjected to decades of systemic persecution. Denied citizenship under Myanmar’s 1982 citizenship law, they were rendered stateless. Myanmar’s military and people have perpetrated discrimination, forced labour and violence on the Rohingyas, culminating in the 2017 crackdown. In months, more than 700,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh, adding to the thousands who had fled to Bangladesh during earlier waves of violence.

At the very outset, Bangladesh was regarded as an icon because of its welcoming the Rohingyas. Cox’s Bazar, which houses the largest refugee camp in the world, epitomises the response. Emergency assistance including shelter and health care provided by the government along with international organisations such as the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and non-governmental organisation, ensued. The response has saved many lives, but the long-term consequences of hosting such a large population are becoming increasingly apparent.

Challenges

Hosting over a million refugees in one of the world’s most densely populated countries has strained Bangladesh’s infrastructure and resources. To accommodate refugee camps, vast areas of forests in Cox’s Bazar were cleared, causing ecological degradation. The sudden influx put water resources and sanitation facilities under stress, raising health concerns. Although international aid provides substantial support, the government has to bear considerable costs for managing the crisis. The local communities in Cox’s Bazar have seen inflation, decrease in wages and competition for resources.

The Rohingya crisis is a very contentious issue in Bangladeshi politics and there are multiple dimensions that affect domestic stability. Reports of illegal activities, which include human trafficking, drug smuggling and the potential for radicalisation within the camps, have caused alarm. Such a large stateless population has posed some long-term security risks. What began as general public support for hosting the Rohingyas seems to be slowly turning into anger among the local people around Cox’s Bazar who feel marginalised. The opposition have at times blamed the government for mismanaging the crisis for political mileage. The political polarisation makes it difficult to develop a unified national strategy in handling the crisis.

Geopolitical implications

Relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar have worsened. Despite multiple repatriation agreements, Myanmar has demonstrated little commitment to ensuring safe, voluntary, and dignified returns for the Rohingyas. Border tension has flared, with accusations of military incursion and shelling. China plays the role of a mediator between Bangladesh and Myanmar while it protects Myanmar’s interests on the global stage. Bangladesh has to play along carefully with China for economic reasons. India has given a lukewarm reaction as it balances strategic interests with Myanmar and relationship with Bangladesh. It gave humanitarian aid but stopped short of strongly condemning Myanmar’s action. Western nations, particularly the United States and the European Union, have provided significant humanitarian aid and imposed sanctions in Myanmar. However, they have not been able to pressure Myanmar sufficiently for a resolution.

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Co-operation have largely been ineffective in addressing the crisis, reflecting the limitations of regional cooperation. The response of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has been criticised as tepid, given its principle of non-interference. Bangladesh’s diplomatic efforts have focused on gaining international support for repatriation and humanitarian aid. While the United Nations has condemned Myanmar, enforcement mechanisms are weak. The ICC investigation of alleged crimes against the Rohingya adds a legal dimension to the crisis but has yet to yield tangible outcomes.

Economic implications

The inflow of international aid has generated some economic activities, especially in Cox’s Bazar. Infrastructure development, logistics and services industries have benefited. But over-reliance on foreign aid can weaken local governance and long-term economic planning. Political instability associated with the crisis may deter foreign investment, especially in areas near the camps.

Arakan army’s dominance

The Arakan Army is one of the most powerful ethnic armed groups in Myanmar and over the past year, it has consolidated control over key areas of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, including Maungdaw Township. Now, with the seizure of authority over the entire 270-kilometre border previously managed by Myanmar’s military junta, the Arakan Army has added a fresh layer of complexity to the already fraught Rohingya crisis. This strategic dominance disrupts local governance, fuels regional instability and raises significant security concern for Bangladesh, which shares this volatile frontier.

The presence of the Arakan Army further complicates the plight of the Rohingya refugees, who remain one of the most vulnerable communities in the region. Accused of rights violations, including forced displacements and violent attacks against the Rohingya, the group has deepened the crisis. The actions hinder repatriation efforts and leave more than a million Rohingya refugees in the camps of Bangladesh with little hope for a safe return. The possibility of increased cross-border tension and a fresh wave of displacement heightens the stress on resources and the security apparatus of Bangladesh. This is a growing situation that underlines a need for a coordinated regional approach to address the humanitarian and geopolitical challenges posed by the territorial gains of the Arakan Army.

The Rohingyas are unwilling to return to Myanmar without guarantees of citizenship, safety, and rights. Myanmar resists international pressure, adding to the stalemate. Bangladesh has resisted giving the Rohingyas permanent status out of fear that it would encourage more influxes and further tear its social fabric. Proposals for relocating refugees to Bhasan Char, a remote island, have been criticised on safety and isolation grounds. As international focus shifts to other crises, sustaining aid and advocacy for the Rohingyas becomes increasingly challenging.

Path forward

THE Rohingya crisis, with its deep-rooted humanitarian, political, and security dimensions, requires a multi-pronged approach to address its challenges effectively. Coordinated global efforts are vital to holding Myanmar accountable for its actions against the Rohingya community. Countries must amplify diplomatic pressure by suspending bilateral agreements, withholding development aid and excluding Myanmar from international forums unless it takes concrete steps toward resolving the crisis. Comprehensive sanctions targeting Myanmar’s military leadership and their economic interests can deter continued persecution. The measures should be coupled with strict enforcement to prevent evasion. International institutions, rights organisations and influential nations must sustain global attention on the crisis through advocacy and campaigns that highlight the plight of the Rohingyas and the responsibility of the Myanmar government. The magnitude of the crisis warrants stronger regional collaboration, particularly among South and Southeast Asian countries.

A cohesive framework for refugee management, spearheaded by the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations can distribute the humanitarian burden across the region. This includes commitments for financial contributions, temporary resettlement, and shared logistical support. Regional countries must strengthen border management to prevent human trafficking and ensure that the refugee camps do not become hubs for illegal activities. Regional powers such as India and China can facilitate constructive dialogues between Bangladesh and Myanmar to build trust and explore pathways for repatriation. Cox’s Bazar, the epicentre of the Rohingya refugee crisis, requires substantial investment to alleviate pressure on local communities and create a sustainable environment for all. Projects focused on improving roads, water supply and sanitation systems can serve both refugees and local residents.

Educational programmes tailored for refugees and host community members can foster economic self-reliance and reduce social tension. Expanding healthcare facilities ensures improved living conditions for refugees and minimizes the strain on local health services. These efforts also reduce the risk of disease outbreaks, which could affect both populations. Legal action through international courts is an essential avenue to seek justice and set a global precedent against ethnic cleansing and genocide. Supporting the International Criminal Court investigation of Myanmar’s military leaders for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity can bring accountability. Cases brought before the International Court of Justice by states or organisations, as seen in the Gambia’s filing against Myanmar, demonstrate the potential of legal mechanisms to pressure compliance with international norms. Continued efforts to gather and preserve evidence of atrocities are critical for the success of these legal initiatives.

While voluntary and safe repatriation remains the ultimate goal, realistic contingency planning is crucial to address the prolonged displacement of the Rohingya. Refugees must be provided with opportunities for education, vocational training and employment, enabling them to contribute positively to host economies. Building partnerships between refugees and host communities through joint initiatives can foster social harmony and mitigate resentment. For the controversial relocation plan to succeed, measures must be taken to ensure the safety, sustainability, and voluntariness of refugee transfers to Bhasan Char island.

Call for solidarity and action

THE Rohingya crisis needs not only urgent humanitarian responses but also far-reaching and visionary strategies embedded in cooperation and justice. This solution requires firm commitments on part of the international community, from diplomatic pressure on Myanmar to regional harmony and sustainable development. Seeking accountability through courts of law and contemplating dignified futures for refugees are key components in marking the road towards a resolution. The acts are a testament to the collective commitment to uphold human rights, ensure regional stability, and adhere to shared values of humanity.

To Bangladesh, this crisis is not a national challenge but a moment in history that tests its resilience, compassion, and leadership. The burden is immense, affecting its politics, economy and global standing, but hope abounds in transformative leadership and global solidarity. It is through unity and shared responsibility that the path to peace and dignity for the Rohingyas can be realised.

Dr Serajul I Bhuiyan is a professor and former chair of the journalism and mass communications department at Savannah State University, Georgia.​
 

Bangladesh’s Rakhine dilemma
by Mohammad Abdur Razzak 28 December, 2024, 00:00

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A file photo shows Rohingya refugees gathering in the ‘no man’s land’ behind Myanmar’s border lined with barb wire fences in Maungdaw, Rakhine state bounded by Bangladesh, in April 25, 2018. | Agence France-Presse/Ye Aung Thu

MYANMAR’S Rakhine State with 36,780 square kilometres of land area is composed of seven districts — Ann, Kyaukphyu, Maungdaw, Mrauk-U, Sittwe, Taungup and Thandwe. As of December 25, the Arakan Army has taken the full control of five districts — Ann including western command headquarters, Maungdaw, Mrauk-U, Taungup and Thandwe along with the Paletwa in the neighbouring Chin State. The Arakan Army is now focused on Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine State and Kyaukphyu. India has 484 million dollar investment on Kaladan Multimodal Transport Transit project in Sittwe. Kyaukphyu has military significance to junta. China has strategically important investment in Kyaukphyu. A complete fall of Rakhine State appears a matter of time.

The change of control of the Rakhine State created streams of challenges for all stakeholders, including Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s stakes in Rakhine are different from those of others. The most important stake is the repatriation of more than 1.2 million Rohingyas. To repatriate Rohingyas, Bangladesh has adopted three approaches — internationalisation of the refugee issue, China-brokered bilateral agreement with Myanmar and a joint working group involving Bangladesh, China and Myanmar. Talks on the repatriation has stalled since the Chinese ambassador’s remark at a press conference on May 10, 2021 that he did not see any possibility of holding a tripartite meeting in the ‘foreseeable future’ and there is no such plan to hold such a meeting involving China, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Since then, there has not been any progress in the bilateral or tripartite arrangement. Interim measures detailed by the International Court of Justice on the protection of Rohingyas remaining inside Myanmar had no effect either. In seven years, none of the options yielded results.

Besides concerns for Rohingya repatriation, Bangladesh has grave unease at a probable increase in the unfettered supply of synthetic drugs from Myanmar. The junta-controlled Bangladesh-Myanmar border was porous, with drugs from Myanmar entering Bangladesh. An insecure border will be haven for illicit drug smugglers. In the changed situation, Bangladesh will need cooperation from the Arakan Army to keep the smuggling of drugs, arms and other contraband items in check. But it is discussed in the diplomatic circle that a state entity cannot engage diplomatically with a non-state actor. The thought contradicts the theory of necessity or the theory of reality. Bangladesh is yet to make a decision on border management.

The desolate expanse on the Bangladesh’s eastern maritime frontier is a potential ground for a wider conflict between the Arakan Army and the Myanmar navy. Apart from the Bangladesh-Myanmar land border, Rakhine cost is a life line for the Arakan Army. The junta navy could impose naval blockade to cut the lifeline. With this probability in mind, the Arakan Army could develop its maritime wing to run through the blockade.

The Arakan Army’s takeover does not portend peace in Rakhine. Rakhine State will remain restive until the fall of regime in Nay Pyi Taw. A restive Rakhine coast will affect the use of the sea by the coastal population of Teknaf and St Martins Island. They will become victims of the fight between the Arakan Army’s sea component and the Myanmar navy. Recent conflicts along the Myanmar coast spilled over into the waters of the River Naf and waters adjacent to St Martins Island, killing innocent Bangladeshi fishers. The Arakan Army and the Myanmar navy also abducted fishers at sea. They are already in the line of fire at sea. Bangladesh will have to act to defend them.

Bangladesh has always been in a dilemma in deciding the appropriate course of action except solving the face-off at sea in 2008. Bangladesh failed to appreciate the military junta’s intention after the Kofi Anan Commission’s report on the integration of the Rohingyas into Myanmar society. Bangladesh also failed to understand the purpose of Myanmar’s military build-up in northern Rakhine in June–July 2017. While the army was bringing in extra forces into northern Rakhine, the Arakan Army and the Myanmar army were holding an unofficial ceasefire. Warring parties normally do not move personnel or war materials while a truce or ceasefire is in force. Extra forces were brought in to conduct the planned Clearance Operation to evict the Rohingyas.

Ignorance or insouciance about the political and military developments across the Bangladesh’s eastern border with Myanmar together with political leadership’s debated wish resulted into a historical blunder to bear the burden of more than 1.2 million refugees and pushed the country into the uncertainty with their repatriation. Blunder was repeated by planning to relocate 100,000 refugees to Bhashan Char, far away from the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. The military regime in Nay Pyi Taw must have interpreted the relocation scheme that Bangladesh has accepted refugees and integrating them into main stream population. Consequently, the regime became disinterested in the repatriation talk. Another blunder was not creating leadership within the Rohingya community. The community needed a leader to keep them organised for settling in their homes in Myanmar.

The national unity government in June 2021 in a historical declaration cleared its position on the Rohingyas. The national unity government recognised the Rohingya as an ethnicity in Myanmar and announced the repatriation of the Rohingyas with full citizenship and other rights after toppling the military junta that had taken control of the country through a coup in 2021. The national unity government, Myanmar’s government in exile, was interested to have dialogues with Bangladesh. But it has not been in communication.

The Arakan Army was also interested in engaging with Bangladesh after the Brotherhood Alliance had launched military campaign on October 27, 2023 to topple the junta. As Bangladesh was hesitant to engage officially with the national unity government or the Arakan Army, track 2.0 or 2.5 level engagement could be a feasible option. On the other hand, India and China have played all sides — the national unity government, the Arakan Army and other armed groups fighting the regime. They also maintained a diplomatic engagement with the military ruler in Nay Pyi Taw. In December 2024, India officially invited the national unity government, the Arakan Army, the Chin National Front and the Kachin Independence Army to a seminar hosted by the Indian Council of World Affairs, a think-tank funded by the Indian government. China also held an official meeting with the Arakan Army in Tengchong, China on December 1.

In the context of the change of control of Rakhine State and situation unfolding in Myanmar, Bangladesh should shrug off shakiness and be decisive about engaging all stakeholders fighting the regime for democracy in Myanmar, and in particular the stakeholders in Rakhine politics.

Mohammad Abdur Razzak, a retired commodore of Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.​
 

Dhaka needs to cope with new situation in Myanmar border: Experts
BSS
Published :
Dec 28, 2024 20:58
Updated :
Dec 28, 2024 20:58

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Security experts, former diplomats, and academics on Saturday called for making engagement with Arakan Army (AA), which now controls more than 80 per cent of Rakhine State, including the 271-km border between Bangladesh and Myanmar.

They were addressing a policy dialogue on “Rakhine after the Fall of Maungdaw: Implications for Bangladesh and the Region”, organised by Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) at a city hotel.

BIPSS President Major General (retd) A N M Muniruzzaman moderated the discussion, with former Defense Attach to Myanmar and former Ambassador to Libya Major General (retd) Md Shahidul Haque and East-West University Assistant Professor Parvez Karim Abbasi serving as panelists.

“I would say it’s high time to engage with the Arakan Army, diplomatically also, because this is a standard procedure in many cases, but we should also keep our military options open,” said Abbasi.

He suggested that if Dhaka cannot directly communicate with a non-state actor like the Arakan Army, it should explore all possible informal channels to establish contact.

Abbasi warned that the Arakan Army’s control over Rakhine could exacerbate insurgency risks in India’s northeastern states.

Major General (retd) Muniruzzaman said Bangladesh government should formulate a clear strategy to address the complex situation in Rakhine.

“If we don’t establish contact with the Arakan Army in time... Rakhine is not landlocked and there is already a process of establishing external contacts through maritime routes,” he cautioned.

Referring to India’s approach, Muniruzzaman noted that while New Delhi has historically maintained close ties with Myanmar’s junta, it appears to be recalibrating its strategy to engage with the Arakan Army in light of Rakhine’s shifting dynamics.

Major General (retd) Haque described engaging with the Arakan Army as a potential “win-win situation” for Bangladesh, benefiting not only security but also economic interests.

He observed that the Arakan Army’s dominance in Rakhine has created a complex situation for India, which could present a strategic opportunity for Bangladesh.

“This is the opportunity for us... for the first time, we are in the driver’s seat, especially in negotiating our interests with India,” he said.

Last week, in Thailand, Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain urged Myanmar to address ongoing border and Rakhine issues, reiterating that Dhaka cannot engage with non-state actors such as the Arakan Army.

“I informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under their control. It is now controlled by non-state actors like the Arakan Army. As a state, we cannot engage with them. Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine,” Hossain told reporters in Dhaka after attending an informal consultation on Myanmar.

The Arakan Army’s growing influence and new reality in Rakhine has implications for Bangladesh in border management and raised fears of a potential new influx of displaced Rohingyas.​
 

National Task Force calls UN to secure Rohingya funding
BSS
Published: 28 Dec 2024, 16: 46

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The National Task Force (NTF) on forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals (FDMNs) has urged the United Nations (UN) and the international community to secure adequate funding to sustain ongoing humanitarian activities for the Rohingyas and host community in Bangladesh.

The call was made at the 46th meeting of the NTF held with its chairperson foreign secretary Md. Jasim Uddin in the chair on 24 December at the foreign ministry, said a ministry’s press release here today.

During the meeting, the Foreign Secretary reiterated that the sustainable and voluntary repatriation of the Rohingyas to Myanmar is the only long-term solution.

“We call for effective measures from all stakeholders to resolve this crisis,” he said.

UN agency representatives, the World Bank, the Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC), and officials from various ministries and agencies attended the meeting.

The meeting made a strong appeal to the United Nations for coordinated action to facilitate a dignified return of the Rohingyas to Myanmar, ensuring their rights and security in their homeland.

UN representatives briefed the meeting on the current initiatives in Rakhine State and called for collective efforts to create a safe and conducive environment for repatriation.

The meeting addressed critical issues related to the Rohingya population in Cox's Bazar and Bhasan Char, including camp management, infrastructure, electricity, healthcare, and family planning.

Discussions also covered financing for both Rohingya and host communities, facilitated by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

Participants highlighted the challenges arising from the prolonged presence of the Rohingyas in Bangladesh, particularly the socio-economic and security implications.

Emphasis was placed on enhancing overall security in and around the camps and addressing the needs of newly arrived Myanmar nationals.​
 

Conflict in rakhine: Dhaka in touch with both the Myanmar govt, Arakan Army
Says home adviser

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Dhaka is maintaining contact with both the Myanmar government and the Arakan Army -- the rebel group that is now controlling the border with Bangladesh -- to protect national interests, said Home Adviser Lt Gen (retd) Jahangir Alam Chowdhury.

"The 271-km land and river border with Myanmar is now controlled by the Arakan Army completely. However, the country is officially run by the Myanmar government. Now, [given the situation] we have to maintain contact with both parties," he said in response to a journalist's question at the Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority's jetty at Damdamia on the banks of the Naf River in Teknaf, Cox's Bazar, yesterday afternoon.

"In order to protect our interests, the communication between the Myanmar government and the Arakan Army is being maintained from the beginning," the adviser said.

The adviser said that around 60,000 Rohingyas have entered Bangladesh with the help of some unscrupulous Bangladeshi brokers.

He said the government has not yet decided on the registration of the newly arrived Rohingyas. There was no policy decision about giving them shelter in Bangladesh, he added.

"We need everyone's cooperation to resist these brokers. Otherwise, they will become a menace. Trespassing will not be allowed under any circumstances," he said, adding that Chief Adviser Dr Yunus had raised the Rohingya repatriation issue at the last UN conference.

"Bangladesh border is completely under the control of BGB and Coast Guard. The locals at the border have no reason to fear," he said acknowledging that violence is still continuing on the other side of the border.

Jahangir also said the illegal drug trade is a long-standing problem in the area. "This area [Teknaf] is infamous for drugs. Mr Bodi was also infamous [for the same reason]. We need everyone's cooperation to fight this problem. Law enforcers cannot solve it alone."

Earlier, the home adviser flew to Teknaf from Dhaka by helicopter. After holding a meeting with BGB officials, he visited some border points in Teknaf and observed the overall situation.

BGB Director General Major General Mohammad Ashrafuzzaman Siddiqui accompanied him at that time.​
 

More than 3.5 mn displaced in Myanmar: UN
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File photo of Rohingyas leaving Myanmar

More than 3.5 million people have been displaced by armed conflict in Myanmar, an increase of 1.5 million from last year, the United Nations said Friday, warning that the country's humanitarian crisis could worsen.

Since the military seized power in a 2021 coup, Myanmar has been rocked by fighting between numerous ethnic rebel groups and the army.

Those groups have battled the military since independence for autonomy and control of lucrative natural resources.

The conflict has spread from the borderlands to most regions nationwide, "forcing record numbers of people to flee their homes in search of safety and meeting their basic needs," the UN humanitarian agency OCHA said in a statement.

As of December 16, "it is estimated that over 3.5 million people -- more than six percent of the total population of 57 million -- across Myanmar are now displaced, approximately one-third of them children," OCHA said.

"This marks a staggering increase of nearly 1.5 million internally displaced persons compared to a year ago."

The agency said that the final days of 2024 had been marked by "intense fighting involving air strikes, drone attacks, artillery shelling, raids and arbitrary arrests."

It called the outlook for 2025 "grim," citing "an unprecedented humanitarian crisis fueled by escalating conflict, disasters, epidemics, widespread explosive ordnance and land mine contamination, and economic collapse."

"If these trends persist, the humanitarian situation will deteriorate further, leaving millions of people in urgent need of assistance," OCHA warned.

The United Nations estimates that 19.9 million people in Myanmar, or more than a third of the population, will need humanitarian aid in 2025.

OCHA has launched an appeal for $1.1 billion in funding to reach 5.5 million people with "life-saving assistance" in 2025, but such appeals are chronically underfunded.​
 

Myanmar junta grants amnesty to nearly 6,000 prisoners
Agence France-Presse . Naypyidaw, Myanmar 04 January, 2025, 22:22

Myanmar’s embattled junta government on Saturday said it would release almost 6,000 prisoners as part of an annual amnesty to mark the country’s independence day.

The military has arrested thousands of protesters and activists since its February 2021 coup that ended Myanmar’s brief democratic experiment and plunged the nation into turmoil.

More than 5,800 prisoners—including 180 foreigners—will be freed, the junta said in a statement on Saturday, when the country marks 77 years of independence from British colonial rule.

It did not give details of what the prisoners had been convicted of or the nationalities of the foreign detainees who were set to be deported on release.

The military said it ordered the pardons ‘on humanitarian and compassionate grounds’.

The junta also announced that 144 people who had been sentenced to life in prison would have their sentences commuted to 15 years.

Myanmar frequently grants amnesty to thousands of prisoners to commemorate holidays or Buddhist festivals.

Last year, the junta announced the release of more than 9,000 prisoners to mark independence day.

The annual independence day ceremony held in the heavily guarded capital Naypyidaw on Saturday morning saw around 500 government and military attendees.

A speech by junta chief Min Aung Hlaing—who was not present at the event—was delivered by deputy army chief Soe Win.

Soe Win reiterated the junta’s call to dozens of ethnic minority armed groups that have been fighting it for the last four years to put down arms and ‘resolve the political issue through peaceful means’.

He repeated a military pledge to hold delayed democratic elections and called for national unity.​
 

BGB detains 36 Rohingyas for trespass
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Border Guard Bangladesh yesterday detained 36 Rohingyas, who illegally entered Bangladesh through the Bay of Bengal.

The Rohingyas arrived at the Teknaf shore in Cox's Bazaryesterday afternoon after crossing the Bay of Bengal on a fishing boat, BGB officials said, adding that they are now in custody and will be sent back to Myanmar.

Among the Rohingyas are five women, 10 children and 21 men, they said.

Lt Colonel Ashiqur Rahman, commanding officer of BGB Battalion-2 in Teknaf, said the 36 Rohingyas illegally entered Bangladesh through the Munderdale beach around one kilometre north of the BGB Khurermukh checkpoint around 1:40pm yesterday.

"The process of sending them back is underway."

Mohammad Salim, member of Teknaf Union Parishad, said they were informed that a boat carrying Rohingyas was seen floating near the Baharchara beach.

Among the detainees, Alam, 30, said he was from Nashong village in the east of Akyab (now Sittwe) in Myanmar.

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A BGB official stands guard next to 36 Rohingyas, who were detained after illegally entering Bangladesh through the Bay of Bengal yesterday afternoon. PHOTO: MOKAMMEL SHUVO

He said the "Mug Bagi (Arakan Army)" has been torturing the Rohingyas there, so they tried to sneak into Bangladesh. They left the place five days ago on a wooden boat.

"Today [yesterday], a trawler towed us towards the beach as our engine broke down, and handed us over to the BGB."

Jaher Alam, another Rohingya from a neighbouring village, said, "There are five Muslim villages in our area. The Arakan Army has been forcefully training us with weapons to stand against the junta troops. We Rohingyas were subjected to inhuman torture if we refused to join the 'Mug Bagi' group. We thought it was better to die in Bangladesh than fight in Myanmar."​
 

Junta air strike kills 40 in Rakhine
Agence France-Presse . Yangon 10 January, 2025, 00:44

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A man standing near a burning house at the site of a suspected air strike carried out by Myanmar’s military at Kyauk Ni Maw village in Ramree island in western Rakhine State on Thursday. | AFP photo

A Myanmar junta air strike killed at least 40 people in a village in western Rakhine state, a rescue worker and ethnic minority armed group said on Thursday.

The Arakan Army is engaged in a fierce fight with the military for control of Rakhine, where it has seized swathes of territory in the past year, all but cutting off the capital Sittwe.

The Rakhine conflict is one element of the bloody chaos that has engulfed Myanmar since the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government in a 2021 coup, sparking a widespread armed uprising.

AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha said a military jet bombed Kyauk Ni Maw, on Ramree island, around 1:20pm (0650 GMT) on Wednesday, starting a fire which engulfed more than 500 houses.

‘According to initial reports, 40 innocent civilians were killed and 20 were wounded,’ he said.

A member of a local rescue group whose team was helping people in the area said that 41 people were killed and 52 wounded.

‘At the moment, we don’t even have enough betadine and methylated spirit to treat them as the transportation is hard,’ the rescue worker said.

Photos of the aftermath of the bombing showed dazed residents walking through charred, smoking ruins, the ground littered with corrugated metal, trees stripped bare of leaves and buildings reduced to a few scraps of walls.

AFP has attempted to contact the junta for comment on the incident, but calls have not been answered.

Ramree island is home to a planned China-backed deep sea port that when completed will serve as a gateway for Beijing to the Indian Ocean, though construction has been stalled by the unrest.

The military is struggling to fight opposition to its rule on multiple fronts around the country and it has been regularly accused of using air and artillery strikes to hit civilian communities.

As well as youth-led ‘People’s Defence Forces’ that emerged to oppose the coup, the military is also battling numerous long-established and well-armed ethnic minority armed groups, including the AA, which control large areas of territory along the country’s borders.

In November, the UN Development Programme warned that Rakhine was heading towards famine as fighting squeezed commerce and agricultural production.

The United Nations last week said that more than 3.5 million people have been displaced by the conflict in Myanmar — an increase of 1.5 million from last year.

The outlook for the coming year was ‘grim’, the UN humanitarian agency OCHA said, with 19.9 million people — more than a third of the population — likely to need aid in 2025.​
 

Myanmar military air strike kills dozens in Rakhine village, UN says
REUTERS
Published :
Jan 11, 2025 10:34
Updated :
Jan 11, 2025 10:34

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Dozens of people were killed in an air strike by Myanmar's military government in the western state of Rakhine this week, the United Nations said, as the Southeast Asia nation's civil war nears its fourth year.

The civilian shadow government and the Arakan Army, an ethnic militia based in Rakhine fighting for the autonomy of the region, also reported the attack had killed dozens.

The junta hit Kyauk Ni Maw village of Yanbye township on Wednesday afternoon, destroying around 500 homes and killing more than 40 people, according to the National Unity Government and a UN statement released late on Friday.

Reuters could not immediately verify the reports. A spokesperson for the military did not answer phone calls seeking comment. The junta rejects accusations of committing atrocities against civilians, saying it is combating "terrorists".

The Arakan Army released the names of 26 Muslim villagers it said were killed and 12 injured in the attack.

Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military overthrew the elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, igniting mass protests that evolved into a widespread armed rebellion on multiple fronts.

The UN statement urged all parties to adhere to their obligations under international humanitarian law.

The Blood Money Campaign, a coalition of Myanmar activists working to cut off revenue to the junta, urged international governments to swiftly sanction entities supplying it with aviation fuel.

"Only when this support stops will the air strikes truly come to an end," said Mulan, spokesperson for Blood Money Campaign who goes by one name.​
 

Myanmar junta air strike kills 15 civilians
Agence France-Presse . Bangkok 13 January, 2025, 00:16

A Myanmar junta air strike killed at least 15 civilians and wounded 10 others at a market in a gold-mining area in northern Kachin state, a spokesman for an ethnic rebel group that controls the area said on Sunday.

The junta has been accused of carrying out multiple attacks on civilian targets as it struggles to quell resistance to its 2021 coup.

The latest attack happened around 11:00am on Saturday, Colonel Naw Bu, a spokesperson from the Kachin Independence Army, said.

‘All those killed were civilians including gold miners and local shopkeepers,’ he said.

The KIA, which can call on around 7,000 fighters, has been battling the military for decades for autonomy and control of local resources in Kachin state.

The state is home to huge jade mines and rare heavy earth elements, most of which are exported to China.

Naw Bu said the attack took place in a mining area in Tanaing Township, in the western part of the state.

Images from local media showed a large crater in the middle of an area completely flattened and strewn with debris.

A resident from the town said three of the 10 wounded had since died.

The KIA controls swathes of Christian-majority Kachin state — home to the world’s largest jade mines.

The region has seen heavy fighting in the wake of the 2021 putsch, with the junta accusing the KIA of arming and training the newer People’s Defence Forces that have sprung up to battle the junta.

Separately, the Arakan Army reported that the junta had dropped 15 bombs during three attacks Saturday on a public market in the town of Kyauktaw in Arakan State. It said some civilians had died and others were wounded, but did not specify how many.

The Arakan Army is engaged in a fierce fight with the military for control of Rakhine.​
 

Steps needed to stop recurrence of fires in Rohingya camps
19 January, 2025, 00:00

THE recurrence of fires in Rohingya camps is gravely concerning. More than 200 fire broke out in Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar in two years that left dozens dead and many injured, with hundreds of shelters having been destroyed. In the latest fire, a five-year-old child died and at least 100 houses were burnt in the Nayapara Mouchani camp early January 17. On December 24, an elderly man and a minor boy were burnt to death and 16 others burnt in a fire in Kutupalong camp at Ukhiya in the district. The fire also left 549 houses burnt to ashes and 263 houses and 197 infrastructure of several service-providers damaged. There hardly goes a month without a fire in the camps. While vulnerable structures and inadequate safety measures are responsible for many fires, a large number of them are acts of sabotage. A 2023 intelligence report, prepared by the army and submitted to the parliamentary standing committee, says that more than 27 per cent of the 222 fires that took place in Cox’s Bazar camps between January 2021 and December 2022 were acts of sabotage.

What is completely unacceptable is that the authorities rarely conduct any criminal investigation to identify the saboteurs and establish other causes of the fires. Intelligence and media reports have time and again highlighted that various gangs that prowl the camps often engage in fighting and infighting, creating an atmosphere of fear and paving the way for acts of sabotage. The gangs are also reportedly engaged in criminal and subversive activities, including drug peddling and human trafficking. Various syndicates, composed of local people, government officials and Rohingyas, are also known to be prowling the camps, facilitating the Rohingyas getting Bangladeshi passports and fleeing the camps. The law enforcement agencies have busted a number of such syndicates and detained a number of their members. The syndicates and their criminal activities, however, continue. All this suggests that there are lapses in efforts to ensure the safety and security of the Rohingyas, who have fled violence and persecution in Myanmar and taken refuge in Bangladesh. When Bangladesh needs to enhance security measures to protect the Rohingyas from any act of sabotage, the international organisations that are engaged there also need to look into the issues of safety and security.

The government should, therefore, investigate recent and earlier fires and address the vulnerabilities that have contributed to the rising number of such incidents. The authorities also need to carry out criminal investigation to look into how many of the fires were acts of sabotage and bring the saboteurs to justice. Local administration and international organisations should also coordinate among themselves to ensure safety and security in the camps and enhance their response capacity to stave off and fight fires.​
 

Arakan Army’s strategic mastery in Rakhine
Kawsar Uddin Mahmud 20 January, 2025, 00:00

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A handout photo released on January 9 by the Arakan Army ethnic minority armed group shows a man standing near a burning house at the site of a suspected air strike carried out by Myanmar’s military at Kyauk Ni Maw village in Ramree island in western Rakhine State. | Agence France-Presse/Handout/Arakan Army

THE Arakan Army on December 20, 2024 captured the headquarters of the Myanmar military’s western command in Ann town, marking a historic occasion for the organisation’s meteoric rise to power in Rakhine State controlling majority of the parts. The Arakan Army now controls 14 of 17 townships of Rakhine State, including Paletwa township in neighbouring Chin State.

The Arakan Army’s sweeping victory in Rakhine State since November 2023 has shifted the balance of power over a wide area in western Myanmar. The Arakan Army has systematically dismantled junta control by starting with coordinated attacks as part of Operation 1027 with its Brotherhood Alliance partners. They controlled all of Myanmar’s 168-mile border with Bangladesh after the liberation of Maungdaw in December 2024. The subsequent fall of Ann township and the western command headquarters has left the military junta clinging to three coastal townships — Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Munaung.

Behind the success of the Arakan Army comes the methodical way of building power under the visionary leadership of commander-in-chief Twan Mrat Naing. The organisation was founded in 2009 with 26 members and has produced a comprehensive road map for liberating Rakhine State that it has implemented systematically over 15 years. The Arakan Army made its stand on being very different from other armed movements in Arakan as Oo Hla Saw, Mrauk U’s political commissar, is reported to have said.

For 2009–2011, the first four batches of fighters trained there in Kachin State had about 400 members. The trained cadres were stationed with the Kachin Independence Army to gain on-the-ground combat experience while others were assigned to work in major cities such as Sittwe, Mandalay and Yangon to build networks and recruitment channels.

In 2014, the Arakan Army began infiltrating and sowing functionaries on various locations and identifying and recruiting student leaders and monks for local support there. The organisation is at its organised spread into Rakhine State proper. It came as the Arakan Army leadership’s first public appearance in uniforms at an Arakanese conference in Kyaukphyu, signalling the start of its more visible presence in the region.

The Arakan Army leadership knew precisely what to do in controlling key strategic areas and trade routes. The initial choice of focus on northern Rakhine and the region around the Myanmar-India-Bangladesh tri-junction was specifically made, an Arakan Army colonel heading a regional command explained, because ‘it was necessary to control the trade routes and into and out of India and Bangladesh.’

The foresight to put administrative capacity as well as military capabilities into place was demonstrated by forming the United League of Arakan in 2015 with the Arakan Army as its political wing. It mattered for governance in liberated areas and the establishment of international legitimacy. The Arakan Army leadership also showed advanced organisational ability setting up nine military regional commands, which are directed in a war office on a secret location where Twan Mrat Naing and his deputy Brigadier Venereal Dr Nyo Twan Aung coordinates operations with senior officers.

The other side of the leadership’s careful cultivation of public support, however, has been equally important: inclusive messaging and nation-building rhetoric. Whereas previous armed groups in Arakan favoured discrimination along racial or religious lines, the Arakan Army was the first to openly espouse an inclusive vision. The Arakan Army entered an informal ceasefire with the military in November 2020 which it had used to empower its positions and get ready for further operation. Following another ceasefire, hostility resumed early in 2022, but the Arakan Army continued to promote strategic flexibility as it built to the decisive November 2023 offensive that has made the Arakan Army dominant in Rakhine State.

Significant demographic and recruitment advantages have enabled the Arakan Army to expand from 26 initial members to a force able to defeat Myanmar’s military across Rakhine State. The large pool of potential recruits for the Arakan Army is the result of the socioeconomic conditions in Rakhine State. World Bank data say that 78 per cent of Rakhine people live below the poverty line and the young Rakhine people have limited economic opportunities. The combination of a demographic youth bulge within the Arakan Army and economic marginalisation has acted as a reservoir of potential fighters who perceive joining the organisation as a chance to wage a fight for the community’s dreams.

In addition, the Arakan Army has also showed flexibility in its recruitment approach directing older recruits, above 35 years, into the United League of Arakan’s administrative apparatus as opposed to combat roles. The assigning of roles in this age-appropriate manner has contributed to combat effectiveness while it gas also contributed to developing capacity in civilian governance. In addition, the organisation has integrated former senior political activists from other parties into the United League of Arakan without compromising its military efficiency while achieving political expansion.

In recent battles, the contrast between the Arakan Army’s motivated young fighters and the increasingly demoralised junta forces has become a crucial factor. It has also been observed that the Myanmar military is lacking in morale and demotivation, especially since confronting the Arakan Army’s cadres. In particular, this has been especially evident in recent operations — the capture of the BGP5 base when hundreds of demoralised junta soldiers finally capitulated to the Arakan Army forces. In addition, the organisation also made declarations of the ‘Way of Rakhita’ and ‘Arakan Dream’ in 2019 which struck a chord with the Rakhine people’s desire for autonomy and growth.

The Arakan Army’s military success has greatly been a result of its comprehensive understanding and exploitation of Rakhine State’s geography. However, the geography of Rakhine State — a long, thin place, mostly flat with rivers and streams cut through it — has been to the Arakan Army’s advantage, the military to its disadvantage. Because o f the poor condition of highways, the river became the main transport arteries in the region and the Arakan Army took the full advantage of its superior riverine capabilities.

This flexible approach to river transport has conferred an important mobility advantage, enabling the Arakan Army forces to concentrate rapidly on operation and maintain supply lines to frontline units. In contrast, the military relies on poor road networks that have left their forces at risks of ambush while it has become more and more difficult to resupply.

Arakan Army and United League of Arakan offices still have access to satellite internet, satellite phones and tactical radio networks. However, the Arakan Army intimately knows its local geography and it has been able to isolate and reduce military strong points. This was most obvious when it came to the siege of BGP5, the last big junta position in northern Rakhine. Because it understood the terrain, the Arakan Army could cut off the military supply routes while keeping its logistics up and running, forcing hundreds of junta troops to surrender. A similar exploitation of geographic advantages was showed in the capture of Ann township and the western command headquarters.

Since 2015, the Arakan Army joined the Northern Alliance along with the Tang National Liberation Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and what was then known as the Kachin Independence Army, the Arakan Army has cultivated solution-oriented partnership in advancing its objectives while still staying operationally independent.

Organisational participation in the United Wa State Army-led Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee since 2017 and involvement in the Three Brotherhood Alliance in 2019 show its capacity to be in several, supplementary alliance networks. Operation 1027, launched in October 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, proved to be valuable to the military of these alliances. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance and the National Liberation Army fought junta forces north of Shan State, seizing the strategic city of Lashio and the northeast regional command while the Arakan Army initiated its offensive in Rakhine State against a military already spread thin.

Formally declining association with the National Unity Government, the Arakan Army has, nevertheless, trained and supplied weapons to various PDF units around the country, creating useful relationships without severing the association. The Arakan Army has particularly grown to be significant with its alliance with the Chin Brotherhood Alliance in the neighbouring Chin State. This partnership also gave a demonstration of the military value of joint operation to Matupi in June 2024, capturing vital supply lines from India’s Mizoram state. This relationship has renewed the Arakan Army with strategic depth and has protected the Arakan Army’s northern flank whilst concentrating on operations in Rakhine State.

While in other regions of Myanmar, multiple armed groups are vying for legitimacy and resources, the Arakan Army does not face a serious rival in the ranks of the Rakhine Buddhist community. At the same time, the previous Rakhine armed groups have seen their rise in the Arakan Army coincide with their decline or marginalisation. The Arakan National Council, which once had enough clout to join the United Nationalities Federal Council in 2011, has fallen off the map. The Arakan Liberation Party and its armed wing, the Arakan Liberation Army, have broken into combatant groups that have not yet been able to marshal a fighting force and no more than 100 ALP members are fighting, with the bulk of them still based in Sittwe.

Both military success and political acumen have led to the consolidation of representation. In 2019, the Arakan Army’s declarations of the Way of Rakhita and Arakan Dream acted as a highly effective expression of the popular desire for self-determination and a more sophisticated and inclusive vision than previous movements.

The major areas of potential challenge to the Arakan Army authority are some of the Rohingya militant organisations such as Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army based in the northern part of Rakhine State. However, these groups have largely fled to Bangladesh following Arakan Army advances. This now reveals the challenges that the Arakan Army will face in governing an ethnically diverse region due to its complex relationship with the Rohingya community — promising such integration while simultaneously conducting military operations against Rohingya militants. Yet the Arakan Army is unchallenged within the core of resistance to a central authority, the Buddhist Rakhine, which forms the backbone of the organisation. By providing the Arakan Army and its political wing, the United League of Arakan, with a unified military and political leadership, has been able to devise and communicate a coherent strategy.

In summary, the transformation of the Arakan Army from a 26-member organisation in 2009 to a dominant force in Rakhine state is the largest success the ethnic armed organisations have seen in the history of armies in Myanmar. Its grip on 14 out of 17 Rakhine townships, along with the capture of the western command headquarters, hints at the possibility of a de facto autonomous region beaming out from across Myanmar’s western frontier. Such a development has big implications for Myanmar’s political future and regional stability. There are still significant challenges to be accomplished, especially in leading a populace that is diverse and managing relationships with else in the world including China and Bangladesh.

Kawser Uddin Mahmud, a researcher at the KRF Centre for Bangladesh and global affairs, is a geopolitical analyst and international relations author based in Dhaka.​
 

Myanmar junta air strike kills 28
Agence France-Presse . Bangkok 20 January, 2025, 00:17

A Myanmar junta air strike killed 28 people, including children, and wounded 25 at a temporary detention area in western Rakhine state, an ethnic minority armed group said on Sunday.

The Arakan Army is engaged in a fierce fight with the military for control of Rakhine, where it has seized swaths of territory in the past year, all but cutting off the state capital Sittwe.

The Rakhine conflict is one element of the bloody chaos that has engulfed Myanmar since the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government in a 2021 coup, sparking a widespread armed uprising.

The AA posted on its Telegram channel that a military jet bombed a detention area in Mrauk-U Township around 4.45pm (10:15 GMT) on Saturday, where family members of junta soldiers were being held by the AA.

‘Those who were killed and wounded were family members of soldiers in Myanmar’s Army. We arrested them during fighting,’ the AA said in the post.

‘As we were preparing a plan to release them, they were bombed,’ the AA said.

Nine children were among those dead, including a two-year-old boy, it said.

The others killed were women, according to a list of the dead posted by the AA.

Photos of the aftermath posted on the Telegram channel showed a long row of bodies laid on the floor in a grassy area, covered in white sheets. A number of people could be seen grieving close by.

AFP has attempted to contact the junta for comment about the incident but calls have not been answered.

The military is struggling to fight opposition to its rule on multiple fronts around Myanmar and it has been regularly accused of using air and artillery strikes to hit civilian communities.

It is unclear whether the strike in Mrauk-U Township was mistargeted or if the junta was unaware the area was being used as a detention site for soldiers’ families.

As well as youth-led ‘People’s Defence Forces’ that emerged to oppose the coup, the military is also battling numerous long-established and well-armed ethnic minority armed groups.

These groups, which include the AA, control large areas of territory along Myanmar’s borders.

The UN Development Programme warned in November that Rakhine was heading towards famine as fighting squeezed commerce and agricultural production.

The United Nations said this month more than 3.5 million people have been displaced by the conflict in Myanmar, an increase of 1.5 million from last year.

Meanwhile, Southeast Asian foreign ministers told Myanmar’s junta to prioritise a ceasefire in its civil war over fresh elections during a meeting in Malaysia on Sunday.

The Myanmar military seized power in February 2021, making unsubstantiated claims of massive electoral fraud in 2020 polls won resoundingly by the Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy.

The junta then unleashed a bloody crackdown on dissent and, as fighting ravaged swaths of the country, it has repeatedly delayed plans for polls that critics say would be neither free nor fair.

‘One thing that we know, they want to have an election. But we told them that election is not a priority at the moment,’ Malaysian foreign minister Mohamad Hasan told reporters after the meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers on the Malaysian island of Langkawi.

‘The priority now is for a ceasefire and everybody to stand down. It’s very simple,’ Mohamad said.

Malaysia is this year’s rotating chair of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations — long derided by critics as a toothless talking shop.

Myanmar was represented on Sunday by Aung Kyaw Moe, the junta’s foreign affairs secretary.

Mohamad said Aung Kyaw Moe briefed the ministers about the junta’s plans to hold an election without giving any dates.​
 

Atrocities against Rohingyas: Arakan Army also under scanner of investigators, says UN official
FE Online Report
Published :
Jan 19, 2025 20:58
Updated :
Jan 19, 2025 20:58

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The UN investigation team on Myanmar will also look into the alleged involvement of the Arakan Army in atrocities against the Rohingyas in the Rakhine State in Myanmar, a senior UN official said on Sunday.

“We have a mandate to collect evidence of crimes committed by anyone, regardless of their ethnicity, religion, or nationality, against anyone, regardless of the victims,” said Nicholas Koumjian, head of the UN Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar.

He said that it was very important to look at any evidence showing the Arakan army and any other force had committed serious international crimes.

The investigation team head added that the UN had requested information from them about allegations of crimes, including crimes allegedly committed by the Arakan Army.

“They told us they would respond, but we have not received a response, and we are awaiting that. We'll be sending more requests to them for more information”.

“We want all players, all participants in the conflict in Myanmar to know we exist. There's a body watching, collecting evidence of these serious international crimes, and one day we are seeking justice for these crimes that people will be held to account” he added.

Responding to a question, he said unfortunately, there is an increase in violations of very serious crimes recently.

“We've seen bombings that are affecting civilians all over the country, very serious attacks on targets that do not appear to be military in nature. We've also seen crimes in detention, including sexual violence and torture of people in detention”.

“Obviously, the aerial bombings are done by the military authorities. We've seen, unfortunately, evidence of very serious crimes committed by other groups also in Myanmar, and this also falls within our mandate [to check] if they qualify as serious international crimes. So we're trying to gather as much of this information as possible,” he said.

About his meeting with the foreign ministry high ups, he said, “In the meetings, we all acknowledged that the situation, unfortunately, is not getting better. It's getting worse. We see continued violence, and it's important we send a message to all the people in Myanmar, and particularly potential perpetrators, that someone is watching and collecting evidence”.​
 

Prospect of repatriating Rohingya refugees has dimmed further
Muhammad Zamir
Published :
Jan 19, 2025 21:42
Updated :
Jan 19, 2025 21:42​

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Rohingya refugees sit on wooden benches of a navy vessel on their way to the Bhasan Char island in Noakhali district, Bangladesh, December 29, 2020 Photo : REUTERS

Myanmar consider that the evolving scenario is casting a long shadow on hopes of repatriation of Rohingya refugees. They have started suggesting that prospects for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar are dimming as the Rakhine state descends deeper into conflict and humanitarian crisis.

Some have also suggested that since July 2023, nearly 60,000 Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh amid acute food shortage, prolonged farming disruptions, and recruitment drives by the Arakan Army (AA). This ongoing turmoil is underscoring the escalating challenges facing both Myanmar and Bangladesh in addressing the plight of the stateless minority.

It is correct that the Bangladesh government has been officially opposing the accepting of new Rohingya arrivals and is also struggling to stem their flow of refugees but there is another continuing dimension which is exacerbating the situation. These new refugees are entering through unofficial routes. Corruption at the border is also aggravating the situation.

Foreign Adviser Md. Touhid Hossain has acknowledged the government's challenges on the border. It has also been noted that despite Dhaka's repeated calls for a sustainable resolution, conditions in Myanmar are moving in the opposite direction. With the Arakan Army nearing full control of Rakhine, the possibility of creating a safe and stable environment for Rohingyas to return is rapidly vanishing.

Bangladesh in the meantime has offered to provide support for rebuilding the Rakhine State economy, emphasising the importance of peace, stability, and democracy in Myanmar as a foundation for commencing the repatriation of forcibly displaced Rohingyas to their homeland. "Bangladesh has every interest to see lasting peace, stability and democracy in Myanmar, and a conducive environment in Rakhine State for the Rohingya to have confidence to go back there in safety and dignity", said Foreign Adviser Md. Touhid Hossain. He made this call when speaking at an Informal Consultation at the Ministerial level among Myanmar and its five neighbouring countries recently in Bangkok. The six-nation consultation was held in the third week of December, 2024 under the Chairmanship of the Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa. The meeting was also attended, among others, by the Myanmar Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe.

Touhid Hossain has also offered Bangladesh's assistance in rebuilding Rakhine's economy when the time is appropriate, reiterating Dhaka's call for a comprehensive roadmap for Rohingya repatriation, with stability in Rakhine as a priority. He has also urged ASEAN and other key regional actors to play a proactive role in restoring peace, security and democracy in Myanmar. The Bangladesh Foreign Adviser expressed concerns over the protracted Rohingya humanitarian situation. He also raised serious concerns over the ongoing armed conflicts along the border areas as well as transnational crimes, involving trafficking in persons, drugs and arms.

In this context, the Bangladesh Adviser also reiterated the three-point proposals made by the Interim Government Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus during the 79th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York in September 2024. In November, Bangladesh's determined lobbying resulted in the United Nations General Assembly adopting a Resolution calling for a "high-level Conference" in 2025. It was also observed that the Conference would contribute to "a comprehensive, innovative, concrete and time-bound plan for sustainable resolution of the crisis, including the voluntary, safe and dignified return of Rohingya Muslims to Myanmar", according to the Resolution. Both Bangladesh and Qatar were mentioned as potential venues for the conference, which the Bangladesh government said it expects to take place in September or October, 2025 with arrangements finalised by April.

Organisers of this Rohingya Conference, however, now face two immediate questions. First, how to define the scope of the conference? Second, how to ensure that the perspectives of the de facto authorities in Rakhine are reflected?

Estimates indicate that there are 2.8 million Rohingya around the world, of whom just 23 per cent remain in their home country of Myanmar - a vivid reminder of the decades of brutal oppression and discrimination. Aside from Myanmar, the four countries with the largest Rohingya populations are Bangladesh with 1.1 million, Pakistan with 400,000, Saudi Arabia 340,000 and Malaysia 210,000.

The situation of the Rohingya, however, differs between these countries. In Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, for example, most Rohingya arrived several decades ago and their children have never seen their homeland. MSF found that while 76 per cent Rohingyas who fled within the past five years wanted to return to Myanmar, this fell to just 28 per cent among those who have spent more than 20 years abroad. This suggests that solutions should be tailor-made and guided by the objectives of the 2018 Global Compact on Refugees, including easing pressure on host countries, enhancing refugee self-reliance, expanding access to third-country solutions, and supporting conditions in countries of origin for return in safety and dignity.

Given the Rohingya refugee burden Bangladesh has been shouldering since the 1970s, its demand for speedy and effective repatriation is understandable. The UN resolution is a welcome effort to ensure the Rohingya crisis remains a global priority. It is also notable because there is presently no credible international dialogue about the crisis.

The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic Rakhine armed group, has apparently hardened its grip over much of the state, further destabilising the region. Reports suggest the AA is also preparing to declare either independence or autonomy, intensifying clashes with other factions, including the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation. These developments, coupled with Myanmar's broader political upheaval, have rendered efforts to facilitate a dignified return for the Rohingya increasingly vain.

It needs to be recalled at this point that Bangladesh has been hosting nearly 1.2 million Rohingya refugees since the mass exodus triggered by a Myanmar military crackdown in 2017. Despite international pressure and periodic talks, progress on repatriation has been negligible. Observers are now arguing that without engaging the AA, now a crucial stakeholder in Rakhine, any meaningful resolution to the crisis remains unlikely. Some have also stressed that ignoring the AA's role in the region's power dynamics could promote failure rather than any success related to repatriation.

International Relations analyst Professor Imtiaz Ahmed has made some interesting observations about the evolving scenario. He has pointed out that it is crucial not only to establish communication with all ethnic groups in Myanmar but also understand that "the fragmented sovereignty within Myanmar has created a complex situation, and our security forces already have some connections with the ethnic minorities there. If we had engaged with the Arakan Army, the situation might have unfolded differently. Our communication should not be limited to the AA. We must build connections with other ethnic groups as well. These relationships do not necessarily have to be open; they can be developed through various discrete channels. The AA's control over a significant area is a reality that we must acknowledge. While key strategic points remain under Tatmadaw's control. Communication does not need to be confined to traditional diplomatic channels." He has also added that incentives should be offered to encourage the AA to facilitate the repatriation of Rohingyas.

There is also another dimension that needs to be remembered by the relevant authorities in their efforts to resolve the repatriation crisis. We are currently in an awkward position. We need to clearly understand that resolving this issue will be impossible without the involvement of China and India, as both nations have aligned interests in this matter.

There is also a different aspect that needs to be recognised. Inside Myanmar, over 400,000 Rohingyas remain in Rakhine-- many confined in 33 squalid internally displaced persons (IDP) camps. With farming disruptions now stretching into a second year, entire communities are being forced to abandon their homes. This has led to recruitment efforts by the Arakan Army targeting young people in rural villages, further compounding fears of a large-scale migration that would definitely perpetuate instability across the region.

References have also emerged about another perspective that needs to be carefully monitored. It relates to shifting from a state-centric approach. The Resolution and debate at the UN General Assembly reflected a traditional state-centric approach, one that assumes that in Myanmar a central government can shape political life in all its component parts. The multiple references to "Myanmar" appear to refer exclusively to the military regime. However, the SAC appears to have now lost control of much of the country. In Rakhine, it barely retains a toehold: following recent heavy losses and its authority is limited to the state capital Sittwe, the island of Munaung, and small sections of Kyaukphyu and Gwa townships - with the latter seemingly about to fall.

Consequently, we all have a difficult challenge ahead which needs to be overcome with great care.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.​
 

Myanmar rebel group admits to beheadings
Agence France-Presse . Yangon 25 January, 2025, 01:07

A Myanmar rebel group said on Friday its members beheaded two prisoners in a rare admission of deadly violence as it fights the ruling junta to maintain control of the country’s western borderlands.

The incident, which ‘violated military discipline’, occurred in February last year during an Arakan Army offensive on Kyauktaw township in Rakhine state, according to the militant group’s spokesman Khaing Thu Kha.

‘Our local AA militias were unable to control their anger and committed crimes... in retaliation for the terrorist Myanmar army soldiers who had unjustly arrested, tortured, and killed their families,’ he said.

In a two-minute clip that circulated on social media, around seven men — some wearing AA uniforms and holding firearms — kicked and beat two shirtless men on the ground.

In another video, the same alleged killers were seen beheading the captives with machete-like knives.

Khaing Thu Kha admitted on Friday that the videos were authentic and the perpetrators were members of the AA ethnic armed group.

Rakhine state in Myanmar’s west is riven with ethnic and religious divisions.

It came under the global spotlight after a bloody 2017 army crackdown that forced some 7,40,000 Rohingya Muslims over the border into Bangladesh.

The military junta took control of the country in a 2021 coup against the democratically elected Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government.

The AA says it is fighting for more autonomy for the ethnic Rakhine people, a population that is also accused of aiding the military in their expulsion of the Rohingya.

The militant group claimed complete control of a key region along the Bangladesh border in December, piling further pressure on the junta battling opponents elsewhere across the country.

The human rights organisation Fortify Rights has called on the International Criminal Court to investigate war crimes committed by the AA in connection with the beheadings, in a report published Thursday.

Khaing Thu Kha said the AA had identified and punished all those involved in the incident and added the group did not accept unlawful killings.​
 

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