[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh

Saif said:

বাংলাদেশী পর্যটকের অভাবে ক্রেতাশূন্য কলকাতা নিউমার্কেট

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Bangladeshis have for the past few years contributed more than a hundred crore rupees to the Kolkata economy per month which was without the medical tourism proceeds.

I have no idea what the total contribution with medical tourism would be. I'd feign a guess, maybe three times as much per month, probably more.

And some Kolkata Bengali haters come up with names like "Kangladeshi". SMH. I do not know what these people lack in terms of common sense.

The following are two articles published by the Dhaka Tribune by its editor, Zafar Sobhan, both should be deeply insightful and eye-opening for non-Bangladeshi readers.
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[h3]10 things India needs to know about Bangladesh[/h3]
It is the Bangladeshi people with whom India needs to forge a relationship and not one deeply unpopular and discredited political party



Zafar Sobhan

1. Neither Islamist nor militant
   
   The movement that toppled Sheikh Hasina is not an Islamist revolution. The students at the forefront of the movement are committed, conscientious patriots who wish to see nothing more than a functional, fair, and free Bangladesh. They are democrats and they wish to see a truly democratic Bangladesh, as do all Bangladeshis. They are the furthest thing imaginable from Islamists or militants. Neither is Bangladesh an Islamist country nor a hotbed of militancy. Yes, it is a Muslim majority country, and yes, their religious faith is a key component of the identity of many, possibly most Muslim Bangladeshis. But that doesn’t make them radicals or anything other than God-fearing, law-abiding men and women who simply want to live their lives in peace and in harmony with their neighbours.
2. Hindus are not in danger
   
   Yes, in the initial chaos following Sheikh Hasina’s fleeing, there was a short period of anarchy and lawlessness, and, yes, unfortunately some of those who were targeted were members of the Hindu community. At times like this, those targeted are often the most powerless and as we all know in south Asia, minorities sadly always remain vulnerable. But the notion that Hindus were the subject of some kind of pogrom and that their targeting and dispossession was in fact an integral prong of the revolution is a fiction. Things have already calmed down considerably and as important as the reports of minorities under attack were, the accounts of Muslims and Hindus teaming up to protect temples and minority neighbourhoods were far more typical, widespread, and noteworthy. Things are far from perfect in Bangladesh when it comes to minority rights, but minorities in Bangladesh are much safer and more secure than in, say, India, just to pick a random country by way of comparison.
   
   
   
3. No anarchy
   
   Contrary to popular belief, Bangladesh has not descended into a Hobbesian state of chaos and anarchy since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. Such was the suddenness with which she decided to flee that it did initially create a complete power vacuum that resulted in a very unstable situation for some days. But with the interim government under Dr. Muhammad Yunus in place, things are becoming more stable and secure every day, even though the challenge of maintaining safety and security and law and order remains considerable. Things are not helped by the fact that a decade of AL corruption and misrule has left all institutions in a shambles and needing reconstitution from the ground up. That said, given the fragility of the situation – there were no police on the streets for over a week, forcing the students and concerned citizens to partner together to protect neighbourhoods and provide law and order – the fact that there was so little lawlessness during this time was astounding. And things are slowly but surely returning to normal.
   
   
4. Popular support
   
   There is widespread popular support for the interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus, who is a widely respected figure, with a reputation for probity, competence, and vision, both inside the country and out. If there is one Bangladeshi who can lead us at this watershed moment in the nation’s history, it is he, and this is widely recognized and acknowledged. There are of course divisions within the interim government as there are within the larger society, but he is widely seen to be the man who can bridge these divisions and bring Bangladesh together. After 15 years of deeply divisive leadership, it’s like a breath of fresh air, and the difference it makes having someone of his stature at the helm of national affairs is palpable. The country is with him.
   
   
   
5. Everything is relative
   
   While it has to be acknowledged that things are very far from perfect, that’s not a very helpful measure to use when assessing where things stand in Bangladesh today. It is regrettable that law enforcement and the legal system seem to be using their old playbook, with many of the cases that have been brought against former AL honchos blatantly flimsy and tendentious, with due process a far cry. Similarly, there remains a fair amount of confusion and lack of transparency as to how decisions are being made and what we can expect moving forward. But Bangladeshis prefer to measure the way things are today against the rampant criminality and corruption of the past decade, to say nothing of the bloodshed of the last month when Hasina turned her guns on her own people, and by that measure of comparison, we are light years better off than we were before.
   
   
   
6. Anger against the outgoing regime
   
   Remarkably, perhaps, for a prime minister who was elected in a landslide in 2008 and who had presided over impressive growth and development during her tenure in office, the ousted PM Sheikh Hasina was a widely feared and reviled figure. Her ruling Awami League was even less popular. In a free and fair election it is doubtful that they could be elected dogcatcher anywhere outside of their political stronghold of Gopalganj, something which the PM understood very well, hence her disinclination to test her popularity at the polls in 2014, 2018, and earlier this year. If the discontent with her dictatorial rule and the corruption and criminality that came with it were simmering below the surface for years, this boiled over into incandescent anger with her murderous response to the student protests that left hundreds dead, thousands maimed, and the entire country shocked and still coming to terms with the ferocity of the assault perpetrated on its own people by the erstwhile government. She has lost an entire generation, and the AL won’t sniff power again for a decade, possibly much, much longer. Bangladeshis will never forgive her or forget what she did.
   
   
   
7. We hold India responsible
   
   The Bangladeshi people hold India squarely responsible for everything they have suffered in the past decade of increasingly autocratic AL misrule. The reason is simple: everyone knows – as do you – that it was India who propped up and supported the Hasina regime, batting for it internationally, being the first to recognize its bogus elections, soft-pedalling its dictatorial nature, and defending it and protecting it at every turn. It was this knowledge that India unquestioningly had her back that emboldened Hasina in her worst excesses and insulated her from the consequences of her misrule. India’s relationship was with Sheikh Hasina and the government, and its concern for the welfare or opinion of the Bangladeshi people was non-existent. Hasina was the best of friends to India, and that’s all that mattered. India supported Hasina right to the bitter end, with contemptuous disregard for how this made it look in Bangladesh or the price they would have to pay as a result. Now with their brilliant Bangladesh policy in ruins India will need to rebuild the trust and confidence of the Bangladeshi people from scratch.
   
   
   
8. India is still batting for Hasina
   
   It doesn’t help that more than two weeks after her ouster, India appears to still be supporting Hasina and the AL, and that it hasn’t at all come to terms with the catastrophe of its Bangladesh policy. A tide of misinformation and disinformation continues to gush forth from India, attempting to paint the revolution in Bangladesh in the worst and most mendacious of lights. Sheikh Hasina remains an honoured guest of the republic of India and her son, presumably at the behest, or at the very least with the approval, of his masters in New Delhi openly calls on India to ensure elections in Bangladesh in short order, suggesting to Bangladeshis that India somehow feels that it has that right. India has yet to come to terms with the fact that it backed a scrub, has lost badly, and that it needs to make its peace both with the interim government and the Bangladeshi people if it wishes to repair its relations with its eastern neighbour.
   
   
   
9. It’s not just Hasina
   
   Let me be blunt here. The Bangladeshi people’s antipathy towards India does not stem solely from its support of Hasina and her atrocities. Bangladeshi beef with India predates 2009 although it has certainly been exacerbated both by the rightward shift in Indian politics and India’s support of the AL. Amit Shah’s referring to Bangladeshis as “termites” is only the extreme end of how far too many Indians think of Bangladeshis. Anti-Bangladeshi rhetoric and thought is ubiquitous throughout India and Bangladeshis understand very well the low opinion that many if not most Indians harbour about us. If Indians are honest with themselves, they will acknowledge that their attitude towards Bangladesh and Bangladeshis can be described as patronising and condescending at best, dismissive and contemptuous at worst. Worst of all is the old “you all are only free because of us” chestnut. While it is undeniable that India played a seminal role in 1971, it’s time to give that particular line a rest. Are the French meant to still be crawlingly deferential to the English and Americans? Good luck with that. Why should Bangladesh be any different? And please note that I haven’t even mentioned border killings, water sharing, or extortionate power deals.
   
   
   
10. We want to be friends
    
    Be all of the above as it may, Bangladesh neither seeks nor can afford enmity with India. We understand that India has long been an important friend to Bangladesh, starting from its invaluable support for our Liberation War in 1971. We recognize that India is a burgeoning world power and that good relations between the two countries are not just desirable but in fact indispensable. We share a 4,000 plus kilometre border and so many of our issues can only be resolved bilaterally or regionally. We appreciate that India has security concerns that impact its relationship with us. We also understand that the ties that bind our two countries are far greater than that which divides us, and that well-meaning Indians want the best for Bangladesh as well-meaning Bangladeshis want the best for India. But moving forward, if the relationship is to be repaired and developed in a way that is frankly imperative for both countries, it will have to be done so on the basis of mutual respect and with a recognition that it is the Bangladeshi people with whom India needs to forge a relationship, not one deeply unpopular and discredited political party and its dictatorial leader.

The following are two articles published by the Dhaka Tribune by its editor, Zafar Sobhan, both should be deeply insightful and eye-opening for non-Bangladeshi readers.
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[h3]Time to listen to Bangladeshi voices[/h3]
The good news in Bangladesh today far outweighs the bad



The continuing meltdown in India’s political, foreign policy, media, and intellectual establishments three weeks into the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government is truly a sight to behold.

If they don’t mind me pointing out the obvious, I would have to observe that they are taking this a lot worse than I thought they would.

In fact, I hope I will be forgiven for the observation that India seems to be taking the fall of the Hasina government almost as badly as Pakistan took Bangladesh achieving independence in 1971.

The violence of their response may indeed indicate something a little bit revelatory about how India viewed Bangladesh these last 15 years, and, honestly, the extent of the beating of breasts, rending of garments, gnashing of teeth, and chewing of furniture could scarcely have been greater had a part of India’s actual territory fallen.

Such was the sense of ownership over the Sheikh Hasina regime and the vice-regal confidence with which India viewed its operations in Bangladesh that to see it all come crumbling down in a matter of a few short days must have been a shock. It is clear that the Indian establishment is still very far from getting over it.

I should, at this point, hasten to clarify that it is not all Indians. There have been many fair-minded and heterodox voices within the Indian media and even political firmament who have broken ranks with the consensus chorus of dismay, and both cautiously welcomed the fall of an autocrat and been willing to introspect as to what the lessons might be for India.

But these voices have been few and far between, a tiny drop in comparison to the massive tide of recrimination and disinformation that has flowed steadily throughout the Indian national consciousness and continues largely unabated till today.

The recrimination is perhaps more understandable. The ouster of a leader and a regime that they felt they had in their pocket must have come as a serious shock to the system, and indeed the fact that the Hasina regime could unravel so rapidly and so completely came as a shock to those of us inside the country too.

No one likes to lose a friend, and Hasina was the best friend India ever had. She reigned courtesy of India’s steadfast support which insulated her from the consequences of her misrule, and the fact that her ouster leaves India’s Bangladesh policy in ruins, with no clear sense of how to right things, is obviously hard to take.

Equally difficult must be coming to terms with the massive intelligence failure that resulted in such a reversal. If the events of the past month have laid bare the utter poverty of India’s Bangladesh policy, it is no less of an indictment of their on-the-ground intelligence. How the men at the top still have a job, I don’t know.

But while the above may be to some extent understandable and even excusable, what is inexcusable are the torrents of misinformation and disinformation that have been gushing forth from Indian media and social media channels and amplified by politicians, that have completely distorted the Indian understanding of what is happening in Bangladesh. None of this is conducive to the rebuilding of the bilateral relationship along workable terms that both sides need.

Most of the rhetoric coming out of India paints Bangladesh as a hotbed of militancy and the student-led people’s movement to oust Hasina as an Islamic revolution, neither of which is anywhere close to the truth. Nor are Hindus under sustained attack in this post-Hasina Bangladesh, though Indian media and social media is painting the interim administration of Dr Muhammad Yunus as the second coming of Aurangzeb.

Most galling of all is the insulting imputation that Bangladesh remains under the sway of Pakistan and its infamous ISI. I mean, really? The 2000s called and want their understanding of geo-strategic realities back.

Let me break something down for my friends across the border: Bangladesh is now a bigger country than Pakistan. Our economy is larger than Pakistan’s in absolute terms even though they have 80 million more people. In terms of GDP per capita, Pakistan is fully 30 percent lower than Bangladesh.

What next? Is Bangladesh under the sway of the nefarious Maldives National Defense Force perchance? Are we in the pocket of the sultanate of Brunei? A little respect, please.

My advice to my Indian friends would be to listen more and say less. Listen to Bangladeshis. Do not get your information about Bangladesh from Indian sources who are either themselves misinformed about Bangladesh or trying mightily to misinform you, or both. Engage with Bangladesh with an open mind and jettison your preconceived narratives and notions about the country.

My advice to anyone else outside the country would be similar: get your news about Bangladesh from Bangladeshis and not from third parties, especially Indian voices that clearly have a stake in the failure of the Monsoon Revolution.

Don’t fall for the agitprop being churned out by the Indian troll farms and amplified by their establishment media. Take the time to search out the truth about Bangladesh today, and you will be surprised and inspired by what you learn.

There is a great story unfolding in Bangladesh today. It is by no means certain to succeed and the situation in the country remains balanced on a knife edge. Is the situation in Bangladesh perfect? Far from it. But is it an improvement over what we suffered for the past decade? Absolutely. Is there disheartening and dismaying news when it comes to law and order and rule of law. Undoubtedly.

But the good news in Bangladesh today far outweighs the bad, and it is so important that those outside the country understand the enormity of what is happening in Bangladesh and just how remarkable these last few weeks have been.

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Zafar Sobhan is Editor, Dhaka Tribune.

[h3]Here is a very honest assessment of the re-casting of Indo-Bangla relations by Student Activist Taposhi Dey Prapti, who happens to be Hindu - in Outlook India. She forcefully debunked the false claims of Hindu oppression which were originated and circulated by the Indian Godi media[/h3][h3]
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[/h3][h3]Minorities In Bangladesh Are Determined Not To Be Political Pawns, Says Student Activist Taposhi Dey Prapti.[/h3]Taposhi Dey Prapti, a leading figure in Bangladesh's student revolution, discusses the nation's transition and the crucial reforms needed for a brighter future

Abhimanyu Bandyopadhyay
Updated on: 3 September 2024 3:17 pm



Bangladesh Protest Photo: (Special Arrangement)
Taposhi Dey Prapti, one of the most prominent faces of the student-led people's revolution in Bangladesh spoke to Abhimanyu Bandyopadhyay regarding the current socio-political scenario of the post-revolution Bangladesh. She also shared her thoughts on the newly formed interim government, significant administrative reforms, women's rights, as well as the potential opportunities and challenges that lie ahead for the new Bangladesh. Taposhi is currently studying economics at the Jahanginar University, Dhaka.


Three weeks have passed since the student-led uprising in Bangladesh effectively brought an end to the 15-year autocratic rule of the Sheikh Hasina Government. The country is now in the throes of a transition. As an activist and a student coordinator, what's your take on the current scenario of the post-revolution Bangladesh?

Under the dictatorship of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh's political landscape had evolved into a heavily unbalanced structure, resembling a one-party state that exhibited favourable treatment towards factions associated with the ruling Awami League.

Despite all odds, we are now focused on rebuilding our nation by dismantling the remnants of the previous government's corrupt and oppressive governance.

Even though the major priority of every freedom-loving Bangladeshi citizen was to end the fascist rule of the previous government, it's important to note that our revolution was not solely about overthrowing the Hasina regime. There are numerous changes that we still need to fight for. The culture of impunity has to be demolished, sexual assault and discrimination against women have to be stopped at any cost, the military rule in the CHT (Chittagong Hill Tracts) has to be removed, and the government must ensure the safety of minorities, among other necessary administrative reforms. Without these changes, the revolution can never be deemed successful. Today's Bangladesh stands on the sacrifices of our martyr brothers who were brutally murdered during the July-August protests. We won't let their sacrifice go in vain.

Following Sheikh Hasina's ouster, growing cases of attacks on the Hindu communities have sparked alarming concerns about the safety of the minorities within the country. Could you please shed any light on the current state of the minorities in Bangladesh?

After the downfall of the Sheikh Hasina regime on 5 August, minority communities in Bangladesh encountered tragic incidents of vandalism and looting due to the absence of law and order. However, the situation has since improved. Religious attacks have significantly decreased with the establishment of the interim government and reinforced administrative measures. The police forces are now actively working all across the country and military presence has been deployed in areas predominantly inhabited by Hindu and other minority groups.

But how many of these claims of religious attacks were actually true?

A recent fact-check report by the BBC revealed that a significant portion of the widely circulated social media footage depicting attacks on Bangladesh's Hindus and other minorities was false and fabricated. The majority of these false claims were originated and circulated by the Indian Godi media, alleging genocidal acts against Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, leading to a Hindu exodus. However, they intentionally overlooked those numerous instances where our Muslim brothers and sisters vigilantly safeguarded the Hindu temples and other places of worship throughout the night. Being a Bangladeshi Hindu myself, I can tell you that we haven't seen such a heartwarming display of unity for a long time in Bangladesh.

Are minority communities in Bangladesh well aware of the communal propaganda circulating within and beyond the nation's borders?

Yes, most of the minorities in Bangladesh are well aware that these attacks tend to be more politically driven rather than communal.

Historically, the Bangladeshi Hindus and other minorities have always been exploited for political gains by those in power. The Awami League has long exploited us for the past 15 years, preceding a similar pattern as the previous Khaleda-led Jamaat-BNP government.

Following Hasina's departure, the Awami League and its factions attempted to associate the people's rebellion with communal tensions, while other fundamentalist groups, such as BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, sought to exploit the situation for their beneficial gains. The turmoil persisted until the establishment of the interim government under the leadership of Professor Muhammad Yunus.

This time, the Hindu, Buddhist, Sufi, and other minority communities in Bangladesh are determined not to be used as political pawns in any divisive agenda. We strongly refuse to be drawn into any communal traps.

The inclusion of the Bangladesh military in the newly formed interim government has sparked concerns about the potential long-term ramifications of military involvement. Do you think that there are any possibilities of a military takeover?

The coordinators of the Anti-Discrimination movement have consistently emphasized that there is a pervasive lack of trust among students in the army as a military-ruled state has never brought any good to civilians.

However, unlike previous instances where the military played a more prominent role in the interim governance, such as from 2007 to 2009, the current scenario indicates a relatively hands-off approach by the Bangladesh army, allowing the interim government significant autonomy. As of now, the Bangladesh army shows no inclination to take over governance, opting to leave administrative duties to interim authorities. Unless unforeseen events occur or significant shortcomings emerge in the interim government's approach, the army will likely remain stationed within its barracks.

But what makes me even more worried is the growing military glorification among the individuals. Such fierce display of military fetishism, whether intentional or not, appears to downplay the violent actions committed by the armed forces in the Chittagong Hill Tracts over the years. We must not forget that it was the Bangladeshi army who facilitated Hasina's escape from the country and engaged in preliminary discussions regarding the interim government with organizations such as BNP and Jamaat-e-Islam without prior consultation with student coordinators.

Did you expect the violent military rule in the hills to continue even after the formation of the interim government?

Well, that's something absolutely unfortunate to witness. Tribes living in the CHT have always been the victims of evictions, endemic violence, land-grabbing and intimidation on their ancestral land. Hill people were victims of evictions in the past and now they are being evicted in the name of tourism. The military’s engagement in the tourism industry has resulted in the forced eviction of Indigenous inhabitants and the unlawful leasing of land to non-local individuals, leading to the expropriation and degradation of Indigenous territories.

We had high expectations for the newly formed interim government to prioritise the withdrawal of armed forces from the hills; however, the CHT remains plagued by violence and terror.

Throughout the years, two types of rule had been established in the same country through the army in the hills, making the indigenous communities an outsider in their own land. Why would one have to show ID cards to the army personnel to roam freely in his own country?

Even after the formation of the interim government, indigenous communities in the hills are still suffering unthinkable dehumanising treatment by the Bangladesh army. The Jumma and Marma women are frequently subjected to rape and sexual assault at the hands of Bengali settlers and the armed forces. People are even getting arrested for simply drawing graffiti on the wall!

Is this what we fought for? We didn't ask for a "yes sir" representative who only works in favour of the majority. Our brothers and sisters from the hills equally fought and sacrificed their lives alongside us in the revolution, we will not stop our protests and agitations until we achieve the justice they deserve.

In retrospect, a situation akin to that of Bangladesh also happened in Iran during the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Do you see any possibility for Bangladesh to turn into an Islamic state in the near future?

To be honest, not really for now. Although it's undeniable that some of those who fought alongside us against the fascist Hasina regime aspire to see Bangladesh become an Islamic state. Hopefully, the majority of the student-citizen protesters now desire a democratic, liberal, and secular Bangladesh as we have already witnessed the consequences of granting power to authoritarian figures such as Ershad, Khaleda, and Hasina. Nobody wants to witness a repetition of the past.

After the barbaric incident in RG Kar, women across Bangladesh held protests in solidarity with the women's "Reclaim the Night" march in Kolkata. Similarly, protesters in Kolkata also drew inspiration from Bangladesh's recent revolution. What are your thoughts on this rebellious sisterhood across geographical borders?

The gruesome murder and gang rape of Tilottoma has left us absolutely shattered. After seeing the women's "Reclaim the Night" march in Kolkata, we decided to organise a similar march in Bangladesh to show solidarity with the protests in Kolkata, demanding a fair investigation and justice in all rape cases, including those of Sohagi Jahan Tonu in Cumilla and Mosarrat Jahan Munia in Dhaka. The RG Kar incident has once again highlighted the issue of women's safety across borders and emphasised the need for strict punishment for perpetrators. That's why in our demonstrations, we declared, "We are all Tilottoma, we are all Tonu, Sohagi Jahan, Mosarrat Jahan, and Munia, we are all Kalpana Chakma, we are all Palestine!"

The entire South Asian region is currently witnessing widespread resistance against oppression, patriarchy, and imperialism. The 2022 Aragalaya revolution in Sri Lanka has been major a source of inspiration for us, and the recent protests in Kolkata and Balochistan reflected the unwavering spirit of our rebellion. Furthermore, the ongoing struggle of Palestinian women against the Israeli Occupation has also been a significant inspiration for our fight for rights. These cross-border exchanges reflect the universal spirit of women's resistance against patriarchy and injustice across the globe.

From Dhaka to Balochistan to Kolkata, the wind of change is blowing everywhere. Revolution is contagious indeed!

[H3]'More surprised than worried' at Delhi's war preparations: Foreign Adviser[/H3]

"I don't think there is any chance of us having a war with India."


Foreign Adviser. Touhid Hossain. Photo: Collected

The foreign advisor of the interim government. Tauhid Hussain said he was 'surprised' by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh's statement on war preparations.

He told reporters at the regular press briefing on Sunday afternoon, 'I am more surprised than why he said such things.'

In his speech on the last day of the Joint Commanders' Conference in Lucknow, India on September 5, Rajnath said that the armed forces of peace-loving India must be ready for war to maintain peace.

Rajnath asked the country's top military leadership to analyze the current situation in Bangladesh and the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts to assess what kind of problems India might face in the future and be ready for anything 'unexpected'.

When asked about this, the foreign adviser said, 'I can't find any reason why he made such a comment.'

He said, 'I don't think there is any possibility of war with India. We have to understand whether he said this for the consumption of his own country or not. And the way he said it, it's a lot of beating around the bush.'

'Because I don't see any need for India to prepare because of Ukraine war. Or what India has to do with what is happening with Hamas! How Bangladesh compares with the Ukraine and Hamas issues is also beyond my understanding,' he added.

Regarding giving political asylum to Sheikh Hasina, he said, 'Political asylum can be given to anyone by any country. Whether it should be given or not, in this case it is a matter to be seen.

Noting that they are not willing to give shelter to even one Rohingya, he said, still we know that something is going in. We are trying to prevent it as much as possible. BGB is pushing back every day. Capacity also has some limitations. But we are trying to give back as much as we can.'

[H3]India can’t take Bangladesh for granted anymore[/H3]
In the next three to six months, how India will deal with Bangladesh will become clear



I think three critical factors probably contributed to what Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said. First, he wanted to address the domestic constituency and assure the Indian people. It was pretty clear from what he mentioned in his speech, "We have to deal with the unexpected." From the word "unexpected," it became clear that he mainly meant the changes in Bangladesh, which have been seen as major setbacks for India by its media and as some Indian policymakers have indicated after August 5. I think India needed to assure the domestic constituency, "Look, it was unexpected, but we are looking into it," "We are monitoring the situation, we know what is happening," etc. I am sure much of India must have been thoroughly shocked, given that for the last decade or so, it had been saying that it had the best relationship with Bangladesh. Now, there is a missing point: India's relationship was not with the people of Bangladesh; it was with a particular political party or group. And that has failed. I am sure they have now understood that it is far better to have a relationship with the people than with a particular group of people or political party.

Read more
[H4]Why can’t India accept that the people of Bangladesh toppled Sheikh Hasina?[/H4]
The second point is that we are now in a multipolar world where India wants to acquire its position as one of the major powers. Its economy has already surpassed the UK and France in terms of volume. So, from that point of view, India also wanted to alert the US. Because the general narrative in India has been that the US was behind the uprising in Bangladesh, the defence minister also wanted to alert China at the same time. He tried to tell them that although changes have occurred in Bangladesh, India is prepared if anything happens. It has particularly alerted the US because India is involved with that country in many areas, including on the Indo-Pacific issue. But at the same time, India has increasingly shown that its foreign policy has to be The India Way (as per the title of the book of S Jaishankar). There's a bit of consensus on that in India. While it has maintained a relationship with Russia despite the sanctions, it also has a relationship with China, particularly when it comes to BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and Myanmar. I think that was addressed in some way through this particular statement by the Indian defence minister.

[H4]For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.[/H4]
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[H4]Regime change in Bangladesh: The fallout for India[/H4]
The third factor is not to take Bangladesh for granted, as was done during the Awami League rule. So, I think that message has been put forward to the Indian hierarchies and the stakeholders. It is pretty straightforward because our chief adviser has pointed out a couple of things regarding Teesta water-sharing, border killing, reviving SAARC, and several other issues. Earlier, he also made a particular statement about the northeast. So, I think what the Indian defence minister wanted to say is that it is not going to be what it used to be in the last decade or so, when the Awami League was not a headache for them. Also, it wants to deal with Bangladesh's new regime.

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[H4]India needs to pursue equal partnership with Bangladesh[/H4]
While these three factors are important, the ball is now in India's court. It's now up to them how they will deal with Bangladesh. But it's too early. In the next three to six months, how India will deal with Bangladesh will become clear. If there is a meeting between the Bangladesh chief adviser and the Indian prime minister at the United Nations in New York, that could give us an indication of what kind of changes will come. But no doubt New Delhi is quite sure that this is a different regime from the Awami League one. So, they will have to deal with it accordingly.

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Dr Imtiaz Ahmed is former professor of international relations at the University of Dhaka.

[H3]India is failing to understand Bangladesh’s new reality[/H3]



The statement by Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh calling upon the Indian military leadership to analyze the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Bangladesh has caused confusion and concern in Dhaka. It is crucial for India to clarify the meaning behind this statement, given its official status. The comparison with Ukraine—which is facing invasion and war with Russia—and Gaza—which has been destroyed by Israel's brutal military campaign that has killed over 40,000 people since October 7, 2023—are quite intriguing, extreme, and certainly not appropriate.

For the past month, there has been a pressing need for India to recognise that a people's revolution, now being referred to as the "Monsoon Revolution," has taken place in Bangladesh. And the two countries now need to recalibrate their relationship, rebuilding it based on mutual respect, which has not yet been achieved—nor has there been any clear indication that it will be.

[H4]For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.[/H4]
As Bangladesh works to rebuild after the Monsoon Revolution, we need our neighbours and friends to stand with us. Statements like that of the Indian defence minister will vitiate the tense atmosphere and are not conducive to fostering a constructive relationship between Bangladesh and India. The Bangladesh foreign ministry should seek an urgent clarification as to what this statement means.

Read more
[H4]The Bangladesh-India friendship dilemma[/H4]
It is equally important for New Delhi to understand that a people's revolution has occurred in Bangladesh—people have toppled an autocratic and despotic order. And that this revolution represents the aspirations of all Bangladeshis (from all religions and walks of life) for a just and equitable society.

New Delhi also needs to accept and address the perception that its relationship with Bangladesh was previously centred on a single individual and political party, rather than being a broad-based relationship. In light of this, we also need to take into account the recent killing of Swarna Das by India's Border Security Force (BSF). Incidents like this are unacceptable, but they continue to remain unaddressed. So, there is an urgent need to recast this relationship, making it broad-based, constructive, and grounded in mutual respect.

I have said this before and will say it again: New Delhi needs to recognise the new order which has emerged in Bangladesh and send a special envoy to send a clear and unequivocal signal that it is ready to work with our new interim government, especially after the defence minister's statement, which risks fuelling tensions between these two South Asian nations. India also needs to work with all the stakeholders in Bangladesh and build a relationship between the two republics, rather than with just one political party or leader.

Moreover, New Delhi needs to understand that this revolution was driven by the Bangladeshi youth—the Gen Z. And so, understanding the perspectives, dreams, and aspirations of the next generation of Bangladeshis is critical for fostering sustainable, long-term relations. Their views about the Bangladesh-India relationship are very different from those of the previous generations, and Indian policymakers should also take this into account.

Read more
[H4]Why can’t India accept that the people of Bangladesh toppled Sheikh Hasina?[/H4]
From Bangladesh's side, there is an urgent need to revamp its diplomatic presence in New Delhi. I believe the true message of the post-Monsoon Revolution order in Bangladesh is not being appropriately communicated. We need to think outside the box, as traditional approaches won't cut it anymore. Moving forward, we need to build a future-oriented, forward-thinking agenda.

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Shafqat Munir is senior research fellow at Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS). He can be reached at shafqat@bipss.org.bd.

Bilal9 said:

[h3]'More surprised than worried' at Delhi's war preparations: Foreign Adviser[/h3]
"I don't think there is any chance of us having a war with India."

Foreign Adviser. Touhid Hossain. Photo: Collected

The foreign advisor of the interim government. Tauhid Hussain said he was 'surprised' by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh's statement on war preparations.

He told reporters at the regular press briefing on Sunday afternoon, 'I am more surprised than why he said such things.'

In his speech on the last day of the Joint Commanders' Conference in Lucknow, India on September 5, Rajnath said that the armed forces of peace-loving India must be ready for war to maintain peace.

Rajnath asked the country's top military leadership to analyze the current situation in Bangladesh and the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts to assess what kind of problems India might face in the future and be ready for anything 'unexpected'.

When asked about this, the foreign adviser said, 'I can't find any reason why he made such a comment.'

He said, 'I don't think there is any possibility of war with India. We have to understand whether he said this for the consumption of his own country or not. And the way he said it, it's a lot of beating around the bush.'

'Because I don't see any need for India to prepare because of Ukraine war. Or what India has to do with what is happening with Hamas! How Bangladesh compares with the Ukraine and Hamas issues is also beyond my understanding,' he added.

Regarding giving political asylum to Sheikh Hasina, he said, 'Political asylum can be given to anyone by any country. Whether it should be given or not, in this case it is a matter to be seen.

Noting that they are not willing to give shelter to even one Rohingya, he said, still we know that something is going in. We are trying to prevent it as much as possible. BGB is pushing back every day. Capacity also has some limitations. But we are trying to give back as much as we can.'

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