[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh

[Saif]

Outbound tourism to India slows to a crawl

Political unrest in Bangladesh since the start of July has been severely affecting India’s inbound tourism industry, according to local outbound tour operators.

www.thedailystar.net

Outbound tourism to India slows to a crawl

Bangladeshi travellers account for nearly a fourth of India’s inbound tourists, according to a report by The Economic Times of India. Photo: collected/file
Political unrest in Bangladesh since the start of July has been severely affecting India's inbound tourism industry, according to local outbound tour operators.

They said the business started being gradually affected since July 1, when the nationwide student movement demanding reforms to the quota system for government jobs took hold.

As time went on, the business situation only worsened, they said, adding that their business hit rock bottom after Sheikh Hasina handed in her resignation as prime minister and fled the country on August 5.

At present, the situation remains dire. According to local outbound operators, the number of visitors travelling from Bangladesh to India has dropped by more than 90 percent.

Bangladeshi travellers account for nearly a fourth of India's inbound tourists, according to a report by The Economic Times of India. These tourists primarily come for medical tourism or for shopping, particularly during Durga Puja and the wedding season, the report mentioned.

Operators said the situation worsened after Hasina's departure as it led to temporary flight disruptions and a suspension of most visas, except for medical visas.

Although flights have now resumed, an official from an airline that operates flights to Dhaka noted that the passenger load for these trips decreased by over 50 percent, the report added.

Sabbir Ahmed, managing director of Cosmos Holiday, a local outbound tour operator, told The Daily Star that only medical and student visa services are currently available for India.

However, a few days ago, one of his clients was even refused a medical visa, he said.

"On an average 500 people normally go to India through our company each month. Not even three people have gone through our company in the past month," Ahmed lamented.

As a result, most such businesses are now being run through loans. Ahmed said he has taken loans amounting to Tk 60 lakh in the past two months.

Taslim Amin Shovon, chief executive officer of InnoGlobe Travel and Tours, another local tour operator, said the number of tourists that are visiting India has fallen by over 98 percent.

"Only those who urgently need to go to India are still travelling," he said, adding that many had shelved plans to visit the neighbouring country, he said.

India is a key destination for Bangladeshi travellers, accounting for around 40 to 45 percent of all outbound trips, according to the Tour Operators Association of Bangladesh (TOAB).

A majority visit for medical treatment (over 80 percent) while shopping (15 percent) and leisure (5 percent) are secondary reasons.

Kolkata is a favoured shopping hub while Sikkim, Goa, Kashmir, Darjeeling, Gujarat, Bengaluru, Chennai Delhi, Hyderabad and Northeast India also attract visitors.

Tourist arrivals in India surged by 43.5 percent in 2023, but the figures remain 15.5 percent below pre-pandemic levels, according to the Economic Times of India report.

The country saw 9.23 million visitors last year, bringing in the equivalent to over INR 24 crore in foreign exchange.

Among them, tourists from Bangladesh accounted for more than 22.5 percent, representing the largest percentage from any single nation, the report said.

Debjit Dutta, chairman of the Indian Association of Tour Operators West Bengal Chapter, said travel operators, hotels, and guesthouses near hospitals in West Bengal have experienced a 90 percent drop in business.

A director of the TOAB said: "The prevailing situation has had a huge impact on outbound tour operators, which is why many are having to running their businesses by availing loans."

"If I calculate conservatively, more than 5,000 Indian visas are issued to Bangladeshis per day. If each person spends around Tk 50,000 in India, that means India is losing out on Tk 750 crore per month."​

 

[Bilal9]

India is now worried by 'investing' more in Hasina, giving less importance to Bangladesh The fall of Sheikh Hasina has had a definite negative impact on India-Bangladesh relations.

 

[Saif]

[H3]Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain On Bangladesh Unrest & Indo-Bangladesh Relationship[/H3]

 

[Saif]

‘বাংলাদেশকে ‘ক্লায়েন্ট স্টেট’ বানিয়ে রাখতে চায় ভারত’

 

[Saif]

Revoke all ‘unjust’ deals with India

BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi yesterday demanded the cancellation of what he described as “secret” and “unequal” agreements signed with India over the past 15 years under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government.

www.thedailystar.net

Revoke all ‘unjust’ deals with India
Says Ruhul Kabir Rizvi

Ruhul Kabir Rizvi

BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi yesterday demanded the cancellation of what he described as "secret" and "unequal" agreements signed with India over the past 15 years under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government.

"I urge the interim government to revoke all the secret and unjust deals signed by Sheikh Hasina with India by compromising Bangladesh's independence and sovereignty," Rizvi said.

Rizvi made the demand while speaking at a programme in the capital's Kafrul area.

He questioned why India ignored the oppression Sheikh Hasina has inflicted upon the people of Bangladesh over the past 15 years.

"Don't they (India) know about the farcical elections orchestrated by Sheikh Hasina in 2014, 2018, and 2024? Despite this, why does India continue to show such love for her?" the BNP leader asked.

Rizvi criticised India for allegedly neglecting Bangladesh's sovereignty and the will of its people.

He accused India of supporting Sheikh Hasina who buried Bangladesh's democracy.

"India supports Sheikh Hasina, not Bangladesh and its people," he said.

Rizvi claimed that Sheikh Hasina has demonstrated a lack of humanity by subjecting opposition leaders and activists to brutal torture.

He said students demanded Sheikh Hasina's resignation, but she fled the country killing many people, including children and adolescents.

Rizvi said their party does not want to pursue Awami League's culture of repression, vengeance, plundering and grabbing.

"Those who believe in the politics of Khaleda Zia and Tarique Rahman must work to ensure the peace and discipline in society."​

 

[Saif]

The following video clearly shows how Bangladesh contributes to Indian medical and other sectors. The Indians never say thank you for the huge contribution Bangladeshis make to their economy. I strongly suggest that Bangladeshis use Thailand, Malaysia and China as their prime destinations for medical treatments. Believe me the Chinese, the Thais and the Malaysians will say thank you for the business they will get from the Bangladeshis.

 

[Saif]

Another video which explains India's economic dependence on Bangladesh. The video is a bit long but worth watching.

 

[Saif]

Navigating economic sovereignty of small nations

The relationship between larger influential nations and their smaller neighbouring counterparts has historically involved a careful balance of power and independence. Both economically and politically, larger countries often wield considerable sway over their smaller neighbours, potentially

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Navigating economic sovereignty of small nations
Mohammad Kamrul Hasan
Published :
Aug 27, 2024 21:19
Updated :
Aug 27, 2024 21:19

The relationship between larger influential nations and their smaller neighbouring counterparts has historically involved a careful balance of power and independence. Both economically and politically, larger countries often wield considerable sway over their smaller neighbours, potentially undermining their ability to make autonomous decisions. In recent times, smaller nations have been devising strategies to mitigate the impact of their larger neighbours and assert their own independence. This article delves into different approaches that smaller neighbouring countries can utilise to diminish the influence of larger and more dominant nations.

Economic sovereignty encompasses a nation's capacity to manage its economic policies, resources, and development paths without being unduly influenced from outside forces. For smaller countries, safeguarding this sovereignty is vital for ensuring that their national interests take precedence and that their economic progress is sustainable and inclusive.

The influence of more powerful neighbours on smaller countries can be multifaceted. This influence spans across various domains, including economic, political, and cultural aspects. Notably, smaller countries often depend on their larger neighbours for trade, investment, and even labour, creating vulnerabilities should their more dominant neighbours choose to use economic leverage. Additionally, larger countries can exert control over the economic policies of smaller nations through various means like controlling energy supplies, trade routes, and financial markets. Furthermore, smaller countries may struggle to compete in the global market due to their size, resources, and market access constraints. Political conflicts or disagreements with larger neighbours can also result in economic sanctions or other punitive actions. In addition, the cultural landscape of smaller countries can be influenced and manipulated by more powerful neighbours.

There are global instances of successful countries that have managed to uphold their economic sovereignty despite having influential neighbours. Singapore serves as a prime example of a small nation that has effectively preserved its economic sovereignty despite being in close proximity to larger neighbours. Through strategic planning, economic diversification, and a focus on innovation and technology, Singapore has emerged as a global economic hub. Similarly, New Zealand has actively endeavoured to broaden its trade partnerships beyond its powerful neighbour, Australia. By engaging in free trade agreements with nations like China and the EU, New Zealand has expanded its market access and reduced its economic dependence. Despite its small size and its location in a geopolitically sensitive region, Qatar has utilised its natural gas reserves, sovereign wealth fund, and strategic investments in international sports and culture to assert its economic sovereignty.

Drawing from general concerns and global experiences, certain strategic measures can be highly effective.

Diversifying trade partners is one of the most impactful strategies for reducing reliance on a larger neighbour. Small nations can expand their economic ties by engaging with a variety of countries and regions, thereby lessening their susceptibility to economic pressures or sanctions from any single nation. This diversification can be achieved through regional trade pacts, bilateral trade agreements, and participation in international economic conferences.

Besides, developing niche markets and industries can also prove effective. By concentrating on niche markets where they have a comparative advantage, small countries can become indispensable in specific global supply chains. For example, countries like Singapore have specialised in high-tech industries and financial services. Additionally, investing in research and development can enable small countries to remain competitive and reduce dependence on larger neighbours. Supporting local industries, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology, can also diminish a country's reliance on imports and foreign markets, making them more self-reliant and less susceptible to economic manipulation by larger neighbours. Encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation within the country can also foster economic resilience.

Moreover, forming alliances with other small and medium-sized countries in the region can offer collective strength to counterbalance the influence of a larger neighbour. Regional organisations, like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the African Union (AU), and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) play a vital role in promoting cooperation and unity among member states. These partnerships can serve as platforms for diplomatic dialogue and collective action.

Furthermore, small countries can leverage their membership in international organisations, such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation, and the International Monetary Fund to advocate for their interests and gain support from the global community. Active participation in these organisations can help small countries bring attention to their challenges and seek assistance in addressing external pressures.

Apart from other measures, enhancing military and security capabilities is crucial. While small countries may not match the military capabilities of larger neighbours, they can invest in their strategic defence capabilities to deter potential aggression. This investment can involve modernising armed forces, bolstering cyber defence systems, and improving intelligence capabilities. A credible defence posture can act as a deterrent to coercive actions from larger neighbours.

Importantly, small countries can also enhance their security by forming partnerships with other countries that share their concerns. These partnerships can take the form of defence cooperation agreements, joint military exercises, and intelligence-sharing arrangements. Through collaboration, small countries can enhance their collective security and reduce their vulnerability to external threats.

In addition, small countries can work towards mitigating imbalances by promoting cultural and soft power initiatives. Strengthening national identity and cultural heritage can assist small countries in preserving their autonomy and resisting external influences. By instilling pride in their history, language, and traditions, small countries can foster a sense of unity and resilience among their citizens. This cultural fortitude can act as a counterweight to the cultural impact of larger neighbouring nations.

Small countries can utilise soft power to bolster their global influence and counteract the predominance of larger neighbours. This can be achieved through cultural diplomacy, educational exchanges, and international development endeavours. By portraying a positive image on the global platform, small countries can cultivate goodwill and garner support from the international community.

Devising a clear and coherent foreign policy framework can aid small countries in managing their relationships with larger neighbours. This framework should delineate the country's priorities, interests, and boundaries when engaging with external entities. By having a well-defined foreign policy, small countries can interact with larger neighbours on their own terms and avoid being pressured into unfavourable agreements.

Considering Bangladesh's geographical location, the country could consider focusing on specific measures to uphold its economic sovereignty. Establishing a robust regulatory environment is crucial to shield the economy from external pressures. Emphasis should be placed on implementing regulations that prevent unfair trade practices and safeguard local industries from dumping or subsidised imports. It is also imperative to ensure that foreign investments do not jeopardise national security or exert undue influence over key sectors.

Additionally, developing the capacity to withstand external economic upheavals is vital for economic independence. Bangladesh should implement measures to lessen the impact of global economic fluctuations, natural disasters, and other external factors. Diversifying the economy across different sectors can reduce susceptibility to shocks specific to particular sectors.

Bangladesh should also prioritise effective regional cooperation, as it can furnish small countries with collective bargaining power. Engaging actively in regional trade pacts such as the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) can unlock new prospects for trade and investment. Additionally, enhancing collaboration with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is essential. Participating in regional economic organisations can provide access to larger markets and bolster negotiation leverage. Alongside the partnership, investing in strategic infrastructure projects that improve connectivity, reduce transportation costs, and enhance market access is crucial for Bangladesh's economic sovereignty. Additionally, it is vital to ensure a stable and reliable energy supply through investments in renewable energy sources and energy-efficient technologies to support industrial growth.

Moreover, it is very important to engage in diplomatic dialogue with India and neighbouring countries for maintaining economic sovereignty, and Bangladesh should use diplomatic channels to address trade imbalances, negotiate favourable terms, and resolve disputes amicably. Furthermore, forging alliances with like-minded countries and international organisations can provide support and enhance negotiating power.

Addressing the complex challenge of reducing the influence of large and powerful countries on small neighbouring countries requires adopting a comprehensive strategy. This strategy should encompass economic diversification, political alliances, military preparedness, cultural initiatives, and legal measures to enhance autonomy and assert sovereignty for small countries. These strategies not only empower small countries to navigate geopolitical challenges but also contribute to a more balanced and equitable international order.

Dr Mohammad Kamrul Hasan is a public administration researcher and practitioner.​

 

[Saif]

[H3]Indian Hybrid War with Bangladesh: Tensions Rising to a Boiling Point![/H3]

 

[Saif]

সাব্বাশ বাংলাদেশ! বাংলাদেশীদের ভারত বয়কটের ফলে পশ্চিমবাংলার হাসপাতালে হাহাকার

 

[Saif]

The Indian hegemony in South Asia

 

[Saif]

India will deal with Bangladesh govt of the day: Jaishankar

Referring to changes in Bangladesh, Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar on Friday said they would deal with the government of the day.

www.newagebd.net

India will deal with Bangladesh govt of the day: Jaishankar
United News of Bangladesh . Dhaka 30 August, 2024, 19:28

S Jaishankar. | UNB photo.

Referring to changes in Bangladesh, Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar on Friday said they would deal with the government of the day.

‘It is natural that we will deal with the government of the day,’ he said.

He said that they had to recognise that there were political changes, and political changes could be disruptive.

‘And clearly here, we have to look for mutuality of interest,’ Jaishankar added.

He spoke at the book release of ‘Strategic Conundrums: Reshaping India’s Foreign Policy’ authored by Rajiv Sikri.

Jaishankar said that everyone was aware that since Bangladesh’s independence, the relationship between the two countries had gone up and down.​

 

[Saif]

মেইনল্যান্ড ভারত নয় বাংলাদেশের কাছ থেকে সরাসরি খাদ্যপণ্য আমদানির আবদার মেঘালয় রাজ্যের

 

[Bilal9]

India will deal with Bangladesh govt of the day: Jaishankar

Referring to changes in Bangladesh, Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar on Friday said they would deal with the government of the day.

www.newagebd.net

India will deal with Bangladesh govt of the day: Jaishankar
United News of Bangladesh . Dhaka 30 August, 2024, 19:28

View attachment 7971
S Jaishankar. | UNB photo.

Referring to changes in Bangladesh, Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar on Friday said they would deal with the government of the day.

‘It is natural that we will deal with the government of the day,’ he said.

He said that they had to recognise that there were political changes, and political changes could be disruptive.

‘And clearly here, we have to look for mutuality of interest,’ Jaishankar added.

He spoke at the book release of ‘Strategic Conundrums: Reshaping India’s Foreign Policy’ authored by Rajiv Sikri.

Jaishankar said that everyone was aware that since Bangladesh’s independence, the relationship between the two countries had gone up and down.​

It is notable that Jaishankar changed his tone - acknowledging reality of the failure of their Chanakya principle and ineffectiveness of the thousands of RAW operatives inside DGFI and the PM's own safety net. Most of these people have run away to India now.

Bangladesh is (temporarily, at least) outside of Modi's (his MEA's) circle of influence.

But fret not, they will continue to cause trouble (remotely as well as through their local agents) and try to fail every infra and democratic institution in Bangladesh, due to the precarious administrative situation at present. Destabilizing Bangladesh is their name-of-the-game now.

Witness the small scale Ansar rebellion last week and again, small scale attack at DMC yesterday. Too many local sycophants of the misguided Indian administration still around and purges are still pending. The looted wealth from the last fifteen years is giving these dalals plenty of operating leeway.

The administration was so chock full of Awami and Chhatra leaguers (especially Police, Law and Order, Foreign Affairs, Finance and Planning Ministry people) that finding neutral people to run these places will be a hard task going forward. But survive and persist we will, ours is not a small nation.

 

[Saif]

Dhaka may review MoUs signed with Delhi in June

Dhaka may review the memorandums of understanding (MoUs) signed with New Delhi during former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India in June this year.

www.thedailystar.net

Dhaka may review MoUs signed with Delhi in June
Says foreign affairs adviser; govt may seek Hasina’s extradition if court asks

Photo: Collected

Dhaka may review the memorandums of understanding (MoUs) signed with New Delhi during former prime minister Sheikh Hasina's visit to India in June this year.

"MoUs are not the final agreements. We can definitely review these if our interests were not protected. We will sign agreements on the issues that protect our interests," Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain told reporters at the foreign ministry yesterday.

During Hasina's visit to India, the two countries signed seven new MoUs that include on maritime cooperation, joint research on oceanography, rail connectivity, and on two separate shared visions of digital partnership and green partnership.

The MoUs also includes collaboration for Joint Small Satellite Project. One of the most discussed MoUs was on providing rail transit to India through Bangladesh.

"Before reaching the level of agreements, MoUs are always reviewed. So, those can definitely be reviewed," Touhid said.

He rejoined the office yesterday after a visit to Cameron where he attended a meeting of the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation on August 29-30. Before that, he was in the US for a pre-scheduled private visit.

Bangladesh has been implementing some projects under the Indian Line of Credit, but the work of the projects remains suspended as the Indian contractors have gone to India amid the recent students-led movement that led to the ouster of the Awami League government.

On August 5, Hasina fled to India and has been there since then.

Asked about the projects, the foreign affairs adviser said it is normal that after any revolution, there is some level of chaos, and that's what has happened in the country.

"There were problems with law and order and there is no question about it. However, we have been able to bring it under control.

"As everything is getting normal, the Indian contractors will also feel that and resume work," he said, adding, "The ongoing projects have to be completed."

He said the government will seek extradition of Hasina from India if the legal procedures require it as there have been numerous cases filed against her, including those of killing people.

"If the court asks us to bring her back, we will try to act accordingly … it is up to India if it extradites her. They are supposed to do it, but there is a legal process. I don't know how it can happen."​

The interim government has cancelled red passports of former ministers and lawmakers.

Asked about the status of Hasina in India, Touhid said he had no idea about it. "You rather ask the Indian authorities."