Iranian Defense Forum 
The lids been blown open yaar….russian Irani turani send dozens of these shahid/ lancet/ meraj kamikaze drones flying in from multiple directions heading straight for their intended targets…they appear on Ukrainian/ Sawdi/ Israeli radar screens and these chutiye shiit their pants in panic….. then dozens of cruise missiles like Hoveza/ Kh-55/ Kh101 and even Kh-22 from older stocks scream on in at 500mph…..heading toward different targets. Then these Russian and Irani launch their wild aces like iskundurr or Fateh or Emad or Shahabs on the real targets totally somewhere else…..😝……araam say bhund lugga detay hain and intended targets get totally destroyed. Bewquff Sawdi/ Israeli/ Ukrainian keep thinking place X is being targeted, but generally its place Y, 1000 miles away…..😝…Dis da real game of deception now. And let me tell you, Ef-sola or Ef-thurrtty Fav becoming junkyard scrap with each passing day. Ye haqeeqat hae ab. Warfare has radically changed.
The kamikaze drones work great if Iran doesn’t announce dat they are coming at this exact time and from dat direction. Shahid-136 body is fiber glass so basically radio transparent. This attack on Israel was a huge exercise in deception and it worked beautifully. Shahid drones drew away all the hundreds of IDF missiles when the Israelis panicked and the cruise missiles drew other defenses, and the ballistic missiles slipped in right thru and destroyed their high value targets. I believe irani’s pulled da same feat when they demolished the Abqaiq/ Khurais oilfield complex which was very heavily defended by Pac2/3’s THAAD, Cayote and off shore Aegis systems. Iran launched dozens of drones, cruise missiles and Ballistic missiles from different locations in Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen. It is also the tactics these IRGC use combining all these different weapons and they end up overwhelming/ exhausting/ saturating the defenses. I believe if Iran launches a full on attack with a couple thousand drones/cruise/ ballistic missiles And instructs it’s hundreds of thousands of toady to do it in concert, Isra-heel will totally collapse.
you more bold about Iran's capabilities than even Iranians themselves. Its easy for us to be here on keyboard and have a glorified view of Iranian capability knowing that we are not going to be in the firing line of any retaliation or economic embargo.
Bhai that IDF Air/ Drone power hasn't been able to do much over the last few decades. Recently USN/ RAF airstrikes have done nothing against the Iran backed Houthi's. Sawdi Judea faced defeat and bankruptcy too in Yemen against Iran backed Houthi's no? In Afghanistan 300k coalition/ ISAF/ NATO couldn't defeat the talibunnies. In the end only 20k walked into Kabul without firing a single shot, just like the NVA rolling into Saigon in 1975. Hezb has killed/ injured more than 500 IDF troops in the last 6 months. Iran's used Hamas k jhaggay to kill/ injure another 2000+ Israeli's no? Nuke deterrents have lost their deterrent. Israel is now wide open for an Iranian intervention and eventual dismantling. Iran's opened da gates to the global jihadists to go n fight the IDF. 8 million Israeli's can't fight 200 million incensed Shia, pretty obvious. Iran's already intimidated Israel long ago. As far as we are concerned? we ain't got no involvement in the ME conflict.
In addition, there is Saudi-Indian Salafist/Wahhabi/Deobandi influence, and they are the most powerful lobby with more capability to cause damage. There is, however, no organic Pakistani influence in Pakistan, which is regrettable.
We can only get dragged in like we are with Jesh Adl drama. Irani's know dat we are fukking around using GCC/ US/ Israeli dollars. Otherwise there ain't no beef wid da Irani's for us. They treat balochi like animals, far worse than we do no?......The are also hosting over 2 million Pakistani balochi, cuz wes a failed state no and can't run our own Balochistan? Gwader runnin on Irani bhatta. So is our failed Balochistan's economy......including water and power and food n fuel......you understand all dis no? What should we do now?
Saif bhai we ain’t got any drama wid da Irani turani nor wid India anymore. We’ve been put in our place long ago by da US. India has an economy 10 times our size! And the Irani’s got an economy 5 times our size (the moment there is a western sanctions/ currency adjustment)….Israel-Iran: Hell on earth
The US’ need for a highly measured, or even lack of response from Israel cannot be overstated.www.thedailystar.net
Israel-Iran: Hell on earth
Israel can injure Iran, but it cannot beat Iran. It would even be a tough shot for the US.
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Illustration: Salman Sakib Shahryar
Iran's retaliatory attacks in the weekend on Israeli soil, had brought the world to a standstill, as Israel's allies rushed to take down hundreds of drones and missiles. It was the US, not Israel, that shot down most of Iran's drones; the Pentagon coordinated a multinational region-wide defense from northern Iraq to the southern Persian gulf. Had merely one missile gotten through to kill Israelis, the war clouds darkening the skies over the Middle East would've caused a black-out in the region. While parallels with World War I may seem contrived, Iran's attacks on Israel have shifted the strategic reality in the region.
The media is filled with debates about whether the attack was a success or a failure, and who won and who lost. Iran managed to hit two military targets on the ground in Israel, including Nevatim Air Base. Scott Ritter, a former United Nations Special Commission (UNSC) inspector analysing the attack, has said, "There is no other place on the planet, not the White House, not the Kremlin, that has the level and density of sophisticated anti-ballistic missiles than Nevatim Air Field. My understanding is that Iran launched 7 missiles, 2 of them were probably shot down but 5 hit despite all of this." He further added, "This should prove to everybody, Israeli and American alike, that there is no defense against Iranian missiles."
While assessing the historic attack, Iran's domestic political factors must also be factored into the geopolitical equation. Recently, there has been a resurgence of Shia supremacists in Iran such as the Paydari Front, similar to the Zionists sitting in the Israeli cabinet. The head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami, has also said the regime is now moving away from "strategic patience," and working with "a new equation." It is unclear whether Iran would risk a full-blown costly war, and whether their bellicose rhetoric will be another warning, steering clear of casualties, like their salvo of hundreds of drones was. But an emotional Israel that crosses the line has the potential to unleash catastrophe.
On one end, Netanyahu may be tempted to bargain with Biden, and hold off on Iran, provided that Washington supports its planned offensive against Rafah. The other option is pretty straightforward: a direct airstrike on Iran, which would inevitably drag the US into it. The Israeli government, in their own words, has claimed they are a "nation of lions," and vowed to "exact a price." That price comes either at the cost of the Biden administration or the US security itself or both. — Ramisa Rob
Israel's allies are now scrambling, working around the clock, to convince Israel to restrain after cleaning up Israel's mess all weekend. The road ahead, that we are looking at, could potentially lead to a war that every world power is looking to avoid, but one that could be inevitable if there is any miscalculation on either side testing the tolerance of the other. To note: when we speak about Israel's response, we must also factor in the US fully, and the rest of the West to an extent. And when we speak about Iran, we are also talking about Russia—which exports Iran's Shahed drones and has used it to great effect in Ukraine—and consider China, as demonstrated by Iran's BRICS membership last year.
Iran's retaliation to Israel's deadly attack on its Consulate shares an eerie similarity to its response to the assassination of its top general, Qassim Soleimani, in 2020, by the US. Iran attacked two US air bases in Iraq, avoiding casualties, and received no further retaliation from the US. While the optics of Iran's attacks on Israel seem disproportionate, its actual toll with one serious injury, compared to 110 injured troops in 2020 is far less. The Western media at the time, took to rebuking Trump for escalating tensions with Iran; New York Times published reports that loudly declared, "Seven days in January: How Trump Pushed US and Iran to the Brink of War." On Tuesday, April 17, a leaked memo from the NYT, obtained by The Intercept, shows that the paper's editors and deputies handed out directives to their journalists, restricting them to use words like "genocide," and "ethnic cleansing," and avoid using the phrase "occupied land" when describing Palestinian land. The pandora box of double standards of the credible, Pulitzer Prize-winning US media outlets has cracked open.
Other liberal outlets—or perhaps it's more accurate to describe them now as pro-Biden or pro-Dem—such as Vox, ran analyses in 2020, interviewed defence experts, to establish that a war between the US and Iran would look like "hell on earth." Where are those punchy articles now though? Where's the rebuke for Netanyahu? The same Vox, at the aftermath of an edge of the cliff situation provoked by Netanyahu's government, has concluded, "Israel beat Iran—for now."
One thing the US media surely gets right is that Donald Trump is most definitely a threat to US national security; he may be saying this Iran attack would not have happened under his leadership but he loves to lie, and his track record contradicts the claims. But it's also important to learn from the history of the Trump-Iran face-off in January 2020, and understand that the restraint from the US to not further retaliate avoided what could've been "hell on earth." Netanyahu and the Israeli government which provoked this paradigm shift from a shadow war to a direct conflict, for the worse, is a grave threat to US national security. Iran sent a message in their attacks on Israel: "Control." The message was clearly intended to the US too, because Tehran's long-held strategic aim has been to end the US presence in a region it seeks to dominate. The US' backing of Israel in its genocide in Gaza has created the perfect excuse for Iran to advance that strategy, and it shows.
According to analysts, Netanyahu has two options that serve his political interest, that of perpetual war as the minute the war ends in Gaza, so does his political career. Former Israeli Ehud Olmert from 2006-2009, openly admitted to Mehedi Hasan on Zeteo, that Netanyahu has financed Hamas, so his war-mongering tendencies are uncontested at this point. On one end, Netanyahu may be tempted to bargain with Biden, and hold off on Iran, provided that Washington supports its planned offensive against Rafah. The other option is pretty straightforward: a direct airstrike on Iran, which would inevitably drag the US into it. The Israeli government, in their own words, has claimed they are a "nation of lions," and vowed to "exact a price." That price comes either at the cost of the Biden administration or the US security itself or both.
Biden's confusing actions in the aftermath of the Iran attacks reflect the tremendous pressure he is under. After announcing that the US would not participate in any counteroffensive against Iran, later on Sunday, Biden pushed the House of Representatives and Senators to pass additional wartime funding and military aid to Israel. The Biden administration is in a geopolitical mess created by Israel, as well as its own unstrategic, deplorable sponsorship of Israel's genocide on Gaza—the root of this mess. The US is supposedly trying to create a balancing act, to tame its division with Iran while tepidly trying to control Israel, which is way out of control.
There are many dilemmas hovering over Washington, and an intact foreign policy strategy that benefits their national interests, hangs on a thin thread. On one hand, Biden has an election to win soon, and further backing Israel's genocide in Gaza would highly increase the chances of his lengthy political tenure ending with the label "Genocide Joe." On the other hand, the US directly engaging in Israel's war with Iran would be disastrous, both geopolitically and strategically. Economically, it would cause a hike in oil prices and lead to a further global economic downturn. If the US chooses to isolate Israel, it would risk a permanent divorce with its biggest ally. And if the US chooses to back Israel's conflagration with Iran, it runs the risk of isolating itself with Western democracies who might pursue sensible diplomatic outreach to Iran to not entangle themselves in a costly and deadly war.
Biden's best option is to engage in dialogue with Tehran. And that includes a compromise with Israel. Either way, Biden loses. Iran will not capitulate from retaliation; it will only accelerate the current spiral. This is all leaving morality aside. The best course of action is what Biden should've done a long time ago: demanded a halt in Israel's bombardment in Gaza, and forced Israel to normalise with Arab nations with whom it shares animosity against Iran, and recognise Palestinian statehood. But that ship has sailed far out of reach. In a way, Israel's Netanyahu has been a gift for Iran, and the Biden Administration's biggest mistake was handing out a carte blanche to Israel—which does not care about the US—and underestimating the political games of the ungrateful and dangerous Benjamin Netanyahu. Further US military aid to Israel now, will undoubtedly aggravate the genocide in Gaza and even give ammunition to Israel to poke Iran more and find an excuse to divert the war to a wider conflict. Giving Israel weapons right now will be another big mistake by Biden. Does one give guns to serial killers and expect them to be peaceful with them?
Aside from Israel's response to Iran directly, the tensions brewing between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, which is also the most strongly armed non-state actor, with 150,000 missiles and rockets, is another front that has the potential to erupt into a wider war between Iran and Israel. After more than six months of near-daily attacks between the armed group and Israel, on Monday, April 15, Hezbollah for the first time, claimed responsibility for detonating planted explosives when a group of Israeli soldiers crossed into Lebanon. Four Israeli soldiers have reportedly been injured.
Militarily, Israel can severely injure Iran, particularly with its world's most potent Air Force, but it cannot necessarily "beat" Iran in war. Aside from Iran's vast network of proxies, it also has the numbers: more than half a million active-duty military personnel, while Israel maintains a standing army of 170,000 active personnel, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies' 2024 Military Balance report. Iran has built a long-range air defense system, Bavar-373. Its claimed capabilities are reportedly on par or better than those of the Russian S-300 or the US Patriot.
In the naval front, Iran has armed its recent Revolutionary Guards' navy with drones and its 600 mile range missiles. Russia, which possessed few drones at the start of its invasion of Ukraine, began using two types of Iran-made Shahed drones: the long-ranging Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. Furthermore, Iran's strengthening ties with Russia give the secretive nation a significant military edge and render it a more formidable enemy to defeat as Israeli leaders debate military retaliation, experts say. According to a recent report by the Washington Post, a delegation of Iranian officials visited a Russian factory last March, which has "anti-aircraft batteries—including Russia's S-400, which analysts assess to be capable of detecting and destroying stealth fighter jets flown by Israel and the United States."
Though Israel has significant missile stockpiles, Iran possesses the "largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East," according to the CSIS Missile Defense Project. The nation's longest-range platforms are ballistic missiles—Sejjil, Ghadr and Khorramshahr—which can reach targets to around 1,240 miles, including all of Israel.
And then there's the question of Iran's nuclear programme, which Iran denies while also arguing that it has the right to access "civil" nuclear energy. According to a report on US foreign policy on Iran, published this January by Congressional Report Service, Iran "reportedly increased its nuclear activities in the context of heightened regional tensions in late 2023." Regardless of whether the nation has a covert fortress of a nuclear programme, Iran's close ties with Russia, and China—with whom the US is entangled in a Cold War—provide the nation with heavyweight backers. An eruption of the conflict has the possibility to unite Russia and China on the Iran axis with their common interest to destroy US hegemony. The US' need for a highly measured, or even lack of response from Israel cannot be overstated.
Even for the US, engaging in a war with Iran would exhaust its resources. Pentagon officials in 2019, estimated that a strategy to destroy Iranian nuclear weapon facilities would require a minimum of 120,000 troops throughout the Middle East. The US would not be able to overwhelm the Iranian military capacity with a strategy reliant on air and naval power, even more so now that Iran has increased its military spending. The US has clearly expressed it does not want war with Iran, which has also sent the same message. Israeli President Herzog has also said they are not seeking war but there's no predicting the leadership of Netanyahu and his cabinet with the likes of its Finance Minister Bezazel Smotrich who called for a retaliation that "resonates through the Middle East," and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir who said Israel should "go crazy." The truth is, no one truly knows what lies ahead. Geopolitics is playing like a nail-biting game of chess, and if the action and reaction cycle continues, a slightly wrong move from any key player could tip the world over the edge.
Ramisa Rob is a journalist, in-charge of Geopolitical Insights at The Daily Star.
