[🇧🇩] Geopolitical Importance of Bangladesh

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Source: https://www.observerbd.com/news.php?id=435675

Geopolitical importance of Bangladesh
Published : Monday, 4 September, 2023 at 12:00 AM Count : 5568

Alaul Alam

In the last fifty years Bangladesh has made a remarkable success in its every sector. Once branded as a "bottomless basket" is being considered now as a miracle of South Asia due to its emerging economic growth. The country has made a surprising success story over the years for which it is being considered as a global model for development, economic growth, poverty mitigation, and gender equality.

In some decades with its positive economic growth the country is firmly graduating from the least developed countries, which is predicted to be one of the 25 largest economies in the world by 2035. The country has earned geopolitical significance due to its rising prominence in the global economy.

Ashore of the Bay of Bengal the country has become very prominent in the world politics. Geopolitics of the country refers to interstate politics which depends on its territory. Geographically, situated in South Asia the country has become a rising star in the global geopolitical arena sharing both land and maritime borders with India and Myanmar.

Bangladesh has been made geographically important in the Bay of Bengal which has direct influence over landlocked - Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh- Nepal, Bhutan. Being located in Indian mainland the country's strategic importance is very crucial.

Again, it is obvious that the Bay of Bengal has been a fertile ground for geopolitics over the centuries. Apart from Bangladesh, Srilanka, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia and Sumatra of Indonesia share their shores in the Bay of Bengal which have direct influence on the sea area of Bengal.

It is evident that major powerful countries prioritize the dominance over sea to dominate the world. However, the geopolitics surrounding the Bay of Bengal occurs not only for commercial but also for security purposes of a major power. Bangladesh situated in geographically favorable position has been a center of interests for USA, China, Nepal, Bhutan and Australia while some are interested to use seaports of the country to accelerate their trade and the others think it important in the South Asian as well as in global geopolitics.

India, an economically emerging state spans three sides of border with Bangladesh is always keen to observe strategies, policies and overallinternal politics of Bangladesh. The geographical position of Bangladesh has connected it with a natural link between South Asia and Southeast Asia. So, the participation of the country in case of strengthening regional cooperation is crucial in the two giant trade blocs in Asia-- the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Besides, being a geopolitical ally to India Bangladesh has the potential to facilitate greater integration between Northeast India and Central India.

It is obvious that the diplomatic ties between Bangladesh and India is historical. Over the years these two neighboring countries have been on good term. Commonalities originating in Bangladesh- India relationship are tradition, culture, language, and shared principles such as secularism, democracy, etc. Since the Awami League coming to power in 2009, bilateral relations have peaked between the two countries. However, some issues between two countries are yet to be settled, such as water disputes, border killings, religious tension, and maritime border disputes. Border killing and illegal migration sometimes creates strain in Bangladesh and India relationship.

It is no denial that the Sino-Indian rivalry often puts Bangladesh in an advantaged position as the country maintains a balanced diplomatic act between India and China. During the Covid-19 pandemic we saw high level talks of the leaders of the two countries-Bangladesh and India and India helped its allies sending Covid vaccines. Bangladesh was fortunate to have vaccines from India as a top priority.

In the second wave of the Covid-19 when the Indian government stopped the supply of vaccines, immediately China agreed to deliver vaccine doses to Bangladesh. So, in most cases Bangladesh is benefitted as a country who maintains diplomatic balance with India and China. However, one thing is very obvious for Bangladesh to read the situation carefully to understand the intention of both these countries while utilizing an opportunity.

Over the last some years Bangladesh is facing Rohingya refugee crisis causing a major diplomatic hurdle and tension. From a humanitarian ground Bangladesh government took shelter more than a million displaced Rohingyas from neighboring Myanmar. Since the inception of the crisis, despite taking efforts made by the Bangladesh government several times Rohingya repatriation is yet to be settled due to the lack of willingness of the Myanmar government.

Certainly, the repatriation process is delayed as the international humanitarian agencies are not found proactive enough to settle down this crisis. It is observed that some western countries are extending humanitarian hands through delivering relief funds for the Rohingyas but it must be very urgent to resolve the crisis as it has become a burden for Bangladesh, causing hindrance in socio-economic progress.

Political analysts opine that Bangladesh being a member country of the Commonwealthmaintains a historical relationship with the UK who can be one of the major influentialsto settle down this crisis. The country with the solid political support from the UK may find the scope to present the Rohingya issue to the international arena. However, decisive diplomatic action is a crying need to accelerate the repatriation process.

In strengthening regional cooperation since her birth, Bangladesh has been following middle-route approach in the global foreign policy. During the regime of the father of the nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman middle route was adopted in the foreign policy of Bangladesh. In his speech Bangabandhu said, 'We are a small country, we want friendship to all and malice towards none. He adopted middle routes between the Western and Eastern blocs.

Over the years the country sees success in establishing good relationship with different countries and major powers by adopting a policy of peace and non-alignment. However, it is evident that South Asia and the Indian Ocean region is increasingly becoming a significant site of major power competition which leads Bangladesh to continuously adopt this middle-ground approach to be prominent geopolitically.

Things become challenging to adopt middle-route approach in case of receiving the invitation of the US to incorporate Bangladesh into the Indo-Pacific Strategy as it may arise a displeasing situation of China towards Bangladesh. In the global geopolitics the relation between the US and China raises rivalry. So, Bangladesh with a neutral foreign policy may see a challenging task to maintain a good relationship with both Washington and Beijing at the same time. Geopolitically, Bangladesh faces an awkward position with Russia's invasion to Ukraine as the country wants peaceful settlement of all disputes between two countries but it remains neutral and abstains itself from condemning Russia.

To this end, Bangladesh is becoming prominent gradually in the global political realm which not only opens up opportunities but also emerges challenges. It is imperative to analyze the present geostrategic reality and cope with the challenges that lie ahead while utilizing new opportunities.

The writer teaches at Prime University and a research scholar at the IBS​

 

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Bangladesh’s Geopolitical Position Provides for Unique Opportunities | CGS

cgs-bd.com

Bangladesh’s Geopolitical Position Provides for Unique Opportunities
Zillur Rahman | 03 February 2024

Born during the height of the Cold War, Bangladesh is a nation state that is uniquely embroiled in the machinations of geopolitics. There seems to have never been a point of time where Bangladesh hasn't been caught between the rivalries of powerful states—whether it be the rivalry between India and Pakistan, the Cold War rivalry between the US and the former Soviet Union, and now the rivalry between China and the Western world.

However, the Bangladesh of today is a different state from the one that was so violently birthed in 1971. Once branded as a "bottomless basket," Bangladesh is now hailed as a "South Asian miracle." While economic growth comes with its own challenges—particularly in relation to the huge wealth inequality—the country's general economic development remains positive. Fifty years after its independence, the country is firmly graduating from the category of Least Developed Countries (LDCs), and is projected to become one of the 25 largest economies in the world by 2035. As its economy booms and the balance of world power moves eastward, our role on the world stage becomes more and more prominent every day.

The key factor in Bangladesh's geopolitical play is its geography. The country shares land borders with Myanmar and India. Towards the sea, Bangladesh maintains three—Chattogram, Mongla and Payra—out of the 12 ports in the Bay of Bengal. India, an economically emerging state, spans three sides of the border with Bangladesh and, now more than ever, has a keen eye for Bangladesh's strategies and policies. Due to its geographical position, Bangladesh is a natural link between South Asia and Southeast Asia. Therefore, any regional coordination between the giant trade blocs of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (Saarc) has to include Bangladesh. The country is also a vital geopolitical ally to India, in that it has the potential to facilitate greater integration between Northeast India and Central India.

Bangladesh is uniquely suited in this regard to play a vital role in furthering regional integration, and allowing all neighbouring regions to prosper together.

It is also due to this unique geography that Bangladesh is being approached by China. Bangladesh is a prime candidate to partner with China in the hypothesised "String of Pearls" strategy and the formation of the "Maritime Silk Road." China's Western rivals, along with India, are quite aware of this possibility, and have already initiated steps towards building greater ties with Bangladesh. It is also this possibility that has changed Bangladesh's status from decades of geopolitical irrelevance to a key player in shaping the future of Asia. However, to maintain this geopolitical value, Bangladesh needs to play an intricate, diplomatic balancing act. It needs to maintain favourable and balanced bilateral relations between two major parties—one being China, and the other being the Quad nations, namely India, Japan, Australia, and the US.

The diplomatic ties between Bangladesh and India are historical. Since the Awami League came to power in 2009, bilateral relations have peaked between the two countries. But some unsettled issues still remain, such as water disputes, border killings, religious tension, and maritime border disputes. Since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, we have seen high-level talks between the top leaders of the two countries. India has played "vaccine diplomacy" to gain the trust of its allies. Part of this policy was to send vaccines to Bangladesh as a top priority. However, when the second wave of Covid hit India, they decided to defer the supply. Seeing this sudden pause by the Indian government, China became preferential in delivering vaccine doses to Bangladesh. A significant amount of the delivered vaccine doses were gifts, while the rest were commercial commitments.

There is no doubt that the Sino-Indian rivalry has placed Bangladesh in an advantageous position, allowing such kinds of diplomatic plays. But Bangladesh must read the situation carefully to understand the intention of both these countries while utilising an opportunity. It should not walk into the "Chinese Debt Trap" on the one hand, while on the other hand, it should constantly remain alert of India's "Big Brother Attitude."

The unpredictable foreign policy of Donald Trump created a vacuum in the relationship between Bangladesh and the US. During the Trump era, the presence of the US in the South Asian region was not sufficiently visible. However, the Biden administration already appears to have been re-arranging and re-engaging with the Asian nations to uphold their influence in the Asia Pacific region. In such circumstances, it would be imperative for Bangladesh to observe the US motive, and avail any opportunity of enhancing diplomatic ties and acquiring a more active role in the Indo-Pacific theatre. Currently, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) does not consider Bangladesh an actor in enforcing Western dominance in the Indian Ocean. This is both good and bad—bad in the sense that this indicates the US tendency to look at Bangladesh from the Indian perspective, and good because the US attitude has allowed Bangladesh to look to China to update its naval capacity. The ongoing arms race between the navies of Myanmar and Bangladesh will prove crucial in maintaining regional stability in the days to come, and both India and China stand to profit greatly from the sales. It should be noted that even though Bangladesh has bought submarines from China, it is also actively participating in joint naval exercises with India—just another example of the diplomatic balancing act in play.

Another major diplomatic hurdle for Bangladesh is the ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis. The country currently hosts more than a million displaced Rohingyas from neighbouring Myanmar. Since the inception of the crisis, efforts made by the Bangladesh government for Rohingya repatriation have been inadequate. Decisive diplomatic actions must be there to accelerate the repatriation process. The willingness of the Myanmar government to provide repatriation seems uncertain, while the United Nations and other international humanitarian agencies don't appear to be proactive enough.

Although some Western countries have been delivering relief funds, this can't be a permanent solution. Due to the pandemic, Bangladesh has already fallen behind in terms of its socioeconomic progress. This refugee crisis needs to be solved post-haste. The recent military coup in Myanmar and the assassination of Rohingya leader Mohib Ullah make the situation more complicated. It is high time for Bangladesh to tighten its relationship with the Western states and urge proactive initiatives in the negotiation process for Rohingya repatriation.

Bangladesh maintains a historical relationship with the UK as a Commonwealth nation. Since independence, the UK has been a significant development partner of Bangladesh. The UK appeared to be one of the major countries that condemned the Rohingya genocide and continued with its Myanmar sanctions. Bangladesh will require solid political support from the UK to take the Rohingya issue to the international arena.

The European Union (EU) is Bangladesh's largest trade partner. The EU's aid to Bangladesh also accounts for 40 percent of the total aid that the country receives from the rest of the world. Although the EU-Bangladesh relationship seems aid-centric, there are other areas to work on to realise this relationship's full potential. Since the Biden administration took office, the US' position in Europe has changed. Most recently, the introduction of AUKUS has created havoc in the region. In addition, the Angela Markel era has come to a close. The introduction of new leadership in Germany will undoubtedly reshape the political stance of the EU in the world order. Geopolitical shifts such as these might give Bangladesh a chance to work closely with the EU in the new format.

The three thematic areas where Bangladesh might approach the EU could be: a) Seeking support for a sustainable Rohingya repatriation; b) Access to Covid-19 vaccines; and c) Managing GSP+ status to enjoy zero duties on export products.

Bangladesh has so far been practising a balanced foreign policy strategy. It must maintain a middle-ground approach instead of leaning towards anyone too much. Tectonic shifts in geopolitics are happening even as you read this. Every day comes with new opportunities, while every year comes with new challenges. By analysing the present geostrategic reality, Bangladesh needs to find justification for its current status in the global political realm. Exploring new opportunities in this new geopolitical pendulum is crucial to surviving the challenges that lie ahead.

Zillur Rahman is the executive director of the Centre for Governance Studies (CGS) and a television talk show host.​

 

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SWOT Analysis of Stand in Geopolitics of Bangladesh's Maritime Sector in Achieving Vision 2041

 

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Bangladesh: An important player of South Asian geopolitics

The basic key factor behind the geopolitical importance of Bangladesh is its geography. The country shares land borders with Myanmar and India. Due to its geographical position, Bangladesh is a natura

www.pakistantoday.com.pk

Bangladesh: An important player of South Asian geopolitics
The Indo-China rivalry has Bangladesh playing a key role
By Samara​

The basic key factor behind the geopolitical importance of Bangladesh is its geography. The country shares land borders with Myanmar and India. Due to its geographical position, Bangladesh is a natural link between South Asia and Southeast Asia. The country is also a vital geopolitical ally to India, in that it has the potential to facilitate greater integration between Northeast India and Mainland India. Not only that, due to its open access to the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh has become significant for both China and the USA.

Previously Bangladesh’s importance in South Asian geopolitics was largely defined by the Sino-Indian rivalry and the Indo-Pak conflict; as India, Pakistan and China all are in the close proximity of Bangladesh. But in the post-Cold War era, China’s growing ambition in the South Asian region and the Bay of Bengal has changed the equation of geopolitics for Bangladesh. China followed the combined theories of geopolitics for its expansion.

The “Sea Power” theory of Alfred Thayer Mahan from the USA, said those who controlled the sea would control the world; the “Heartland” theory of Halford John Mackinder from Britain said those who controlled Eurasia would control the world; while the “Rim Land” theory of Nicholas John Spykman from the USA said those who controlled the rim land would control the world. To control Eurasia, rimland and heartland, China needed to expand its connectivity with the outer world. But due to the rivalry with India, the opportunity of connectivity narrowed down and there came the geopolitical importance of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is very important to India militarily. China can easily close the Siliguri Corridor in a Sino-Indian military conflict, Through which India maintains communication with its eastern states. In this situation, India’s only option will be to use the territory of Bangladesh to protect its relations with the eastern states. That is why it is very important for India to have friendly relations with Bangladesh, which is necessary for its security.

India is now proposing connectivity of its northeastern part to China via the Chattogram port of Bangladesh, which will also boost further regional integration by complementing the BCIM and the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) corridors. India now aims to allow “limited Chinese investment” for boosting connectivity and trade in the northeast by using the BBIN sub-regional hub. This paradigm shift in Indian policies toward the BRI is being considered as the potential for a fresh beginning of India-China regional cooperation centring on Bangladesh, where a critical Bangladeshi port will work as the connecting hub.

The ‘Chicken’s Neck’ or Siliguri Corridor created the importance of Bangladesh for India. This corridor is one of the most important geographical compulsions for India. This narrow corridor separated the whole North Eastern region from the Indian Mainland. Bangladesh creates a broader nexus between the Indian mainland and the North Eastern region, because Agartala is 1,650km from Kolkata and 2,637km from New Delhi through Shillong and Guwahati. The journey between Agartala and Kolkata via Bangladesh, on the other hand, is only about 550 km. Furthermore, the average distance between Bangladesh’s major cities and northeast India is 20 km to 300 km. As a result, Bangladesh is always considered crucial for the North-Eastern region’s connectivity with mainland India by rail, road, and river routes. Bangladesh played a major role and has immense potential for the development of Indian northeastern states. And among those states, Tripura and Assam are the prominent.

Not only that, The northeast region of India is one of the most vulnerable areas in terms of security.

Overall, Bangladesh’s location, population, economic potential and regional stability make it a significant player in South Asia and a potential hub for regional connectivity and trade. The country’s geo-political importance is likely to continue to grow in the coming years, as it continues to develop its economy and promote regional integration and stability.

The north-eastern states are almost detached from the Indian mainland. The terrorists and separatists took advantage of the “Chicken’s Neck” and carried out their insurgent movements in these states. Bangladesh, in turn, has been always by India’s side in combating the situation.

The Indian Ocean is a key trading route for China’s energy supplies, making it also the theatre of vulnerabilities. Out of the 10, the route to nine of its suppliers is through the Indian Ocean region. Securing these critical Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs) is a key priority for China. And to contain Chinese ascension the USA has a similar amount of interest in the Indian Ocean region. The Bay of Bengal is one of the most important areas of the Indian Ocean Region.

Due to its open access to the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh have become significant to both China and the USA. Towards the sea, Bangladesh maintains three—Chattogram, Mongla and Payra—out of the 12 ports in the Bay of Bengal.

Bangladesh is a prime candidate to partner with China in the hypothesized “String of Pearls” strategy and the formation of the “Maritime Silk Road.” The land dimensions of the BRI consist of several interconnected corridors spanning the entire Eurasian continent. Bangladesh is centrally situated along the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor. Bangladesh also occupies a strategic position along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road with its bustling port of Chittagong as a major maritime hub through the Indian Ocean. Since the inception of the BRI, China with its vast financial clout has launched special initiatives to boost its ties with Bangladesh by pouring billions of dollars into infrastructure projects. China considers Bangladesh one of the gateways for the Maritime Silk Road (one of the segments of the BRI) that allows China access to the Indian Ocean and beyond. Therefore, China showed a keen interest in building a deep-sea port at Sonadia in Bangladesh

China’s Western rivals, along with India, are quite aware of this possibility, and have already initiated steps towards building greater ties with Bangladesh. It is also this possibility that has changed Bangladesh’s status from decades of geopolitical irrelevance to a key player in shaping the future of Asia.

Moreover, as the Indo-Pacific trade route is one of the major concerns, the Western powers and their Pacific allies also became worried. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its rapid spread worldwide have also increased China’s presence both in this region and beyond. As a result, the geopolitical attention of almost all major powers quickly shifted to the Indo-Pacific region.

The USA and its European allies started to increase their engagement in this region, and its Indo-Pacific allies such as India, Japan and Australia also started to join in this engagement. Quickly, they inked agreements and pacts to contain China. The revival of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) between the USA, India, Japan and Australia, the AUKUS pact between the USA, the UK and Australia, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) are the major agreements inked by the west and its Indo-Pacific allies to contain Chinese presence in this region.

Apart from these initiatives, the European Union and other major powers also clarified their stance on the issues. The USA also increased its presence in the region after Biden’s ascent to the Presidency, centring its policy on democracy and human rights.

Such diverse interests and the nature of South Asian politics are making the scenario more challenging for Bangladesh. While many consider the balancing as between QUAD and China, it has to balance between three great powers, India, China and the USA. Since the Ukraine crisis, Russia is also emerging as a power to consider in this region as it is an ‘energy giant’ and also has a keen interest in this region. Gradually, Russia’s stake in these geopolitics is also increasing.

Overall, Bangladesh’s location, population, economic potential and regional stability make it a significant player in South Asia and a potential hub for regional connectivity and trade. The country’s geo-political importance is likely to continue to grow in the coming years, as it continues to develop its economy and promote regional integration and stability.​

 

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GEOSTRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT OF BANGLADESH

 

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Bangladesh emerges important in geopolitics

Bangladesh is about to commemorate 50 years of independence. The golden jubilee is a milestone that calls for an evaluation of the nation’s long journey. Two researchers have evaluated where Bangladesh stands today as a state. This is the first of a four-part series.

en.prothomalo.com

Bangladesh emerges important in geopolitics
Ali Riaz &
Saimum Parvez
Updated: 20 Mar 2021, 11: 36

Fifty years ago when Bangladesh emerged as an independent state, it may not have caught the world’s attention, but today as it reaches its golden jubilee, the country’s development, democracy and geopolitical significance is undeniably a matter of discussion in some way or the other. Within a short period of its independence, Bangladesh was seen as a ‘basket case’, a lab for experiments in development. In the few decades following its independence, Bangladesh became to be known for its natural disasters, military coups, political violence, corruption and such negativities. It is not that all these issues have been resolved and removed, but today Bangladesh has gained geopolitical relevance in the international arena.

Bangladesh’s geographical proximity to the global power China and the regional power India, and the rivalry between these two countries in South Asia and the rest of the region, had added a new dimension to discussions on Bangladesh. This had given Bangladesh importance in recent times to the US and other global powers. Bangladesh’s economic and social advancement over the past few decades, despite changes in power and political unrest, has also caught the attention of the international community.

It was since the George W Bush's government that the US has viewed Bangladesh through Indian eyes. One of the major reasons behind this is that the US wants to contain the influence of superpower China by ensuring Indian dominance in the region.

However, as Bangladesh turns 50, its importance and achievements have been considerably eclipsed by its diminishing democracy, the questionable victory of the incumbents in two staged elections, the curbing of people’s voting rights, the lack of freedom of speech and an authoritarian system of government. The people have an unwavering aspiration for democracy and it was this aspiration that led to the founding of Bangladesh, with the aim of establishing an equitable humanitarian society. But this aspiration has remained a pipe dream over the past five decades. Instead of creating and consolidating democratic institutions, the long-standing military and civilian authoritarian governments as well as the bitter enmity between the two major political parties, have posed as an obstacle to Bangladesh’s sustainable development.

It is not only the two major political parties who have used religion to assuage their legitimacy crisis in politics and to extend their stay in power, but others have done the same. And global influences have had an impact on Bangladesh too, bringing about various social changes. It is natural to celebrate the successes on the auspicious occasion of independence day, but that is not enough to seek out the way forward as a state. It is necessary to determine where Bangladesh stands today.

Where does Bangladesh stand in geopolitics

There was a time when Bangladesh was seen a small poverty-stricken country surrounded by India, wedged between India and Myanmar. This identity was prominent immediately after independence, but it underwent a makeover after the changes in foreign policy in the mid-seventies and as well as the big transformation in global politics in the nineties. But it is not that Bangladesh consciously developed its own importance. And over the last decade, further changes have taken place due to China's rising power, US' waning global influence, India's deliberate efforts to exert its dominance in South Asia with US blessings, and Bangladesh's foreign policy moulded by its domestic politics.

While economic and security ties between Washington and Dhaka are fairly stable at the moment, there had been considerable ups and downs in these relations post-independence. Relations between the two countries were far from cordial as the Cold War had prompted the US to adopt a stand against Bangladesh's independence struggle. Relations did not improve as Bangladesh had close ties with the Soviet bloc immediately after independence. Relations between the two countries improved during the government of Ziaur Rahman and these improved ties remained intact even during the subsequent military and civil governments.

After the 1/11 attack, US interest in Bangladesh grew as Bangladesh was seen as Muslim-majority country. Placing stress on security issues and in consideration of the Bush administration's so-called 'War against Terror', defence cooperation was added to the trade cooperation between the two countries. Basically it was since the George W Bush's government that the US has viewed Bangladesh through Indian eyes. One of the major reasons behind this is that the US wants to contain the influence of superpower China by ensuring Indian dominance in the region.

China is not only Bangladesh's largest arms supplier, but it is now Bangladesh largest trade partner as well. As China rises as a global superpower, it has stepped up its investment in various development projects in Bangladesh too. In 2016, an MoU was signed between Bangladesh and China, with China committing 24 billion dollars in credit. This is the largest credit commitment made to Bangladesh in its history, though the disbursement has been frugal so far.

Bangladesh has been playing a balancing game with India and China. But this is a dangerous and difficult game because a slip in balance will mean enmity with one of the two. That is why the success of Bangladesh foreign policy depends how deftly Bangladesh can carry out its balancing act
A few months before this agreement with China, Bangladesh had signed a 2 billion dollar development project credit agreement with India. But more important than the justification of this agreement were the political relations between India and those at the helm in Bangladesh. And that is why India managed to extract all sorts of strategic and economic facilities from Bangladesh, despite not meeting Bangladesh's due demands and not addressing the trade imbalance. India's effort to exert its influence in Bangladesh's domestic politics is more than apparent. For around a decade now India has been aiding the authoritarian government of Awami League to remain in power. India's stance in this regard is clear from its unstinting support provided by its diplomatic and state officials to Awami League in the 2014 and 2018 elections. A large section of the people in Bangladesh is displeased with India's continued unquestioning support to Awami League. But it is undeniable that Bangladesh is directly within India's sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, the present government in Bangladesh may politically be India's ally, but its doors are not closed to China. And that is not simply for economic reasons. There are other reasons for Bangladesh's authoritarian government to build up ties with China. In recent times, the countries of the West, particularly the US, have been criticising Bangladesh for human rights violations and shrinking democratic spaces. And after the recent Al Jazeera documentary on certain allegations of corruption in Bangladesh, the UN has called for a probe into the corruption. If relations with the western countries take a downward turn due to the issues pertaining to human rights and the crisis in democracy, the government wants to keep China in hand as an alternative.

On the other hand, Pakistan is China's ally in the region. If it befriends Bangladesh, China will have allies on either side of India and will be able to spread its influence in the Indian Ocean. This is prompting China to strengthen ties with Bangladesh.

So far Bangladesh has been playing a balancing game with India and China. But this is a dangerous and difficult game because a slip in balance will mean enmity with one of the two. That is why the success of Bangladesh's foreign policy depends on how deftly Bangladesh can carry out its balancing act.

Due to its proximity with China, if Bangladesh's foreign policy is independent and in keeping with the times, it can become a significantly important state. By utilising the Bay of Bengal astutely, Bangladesh can become a hub of the Indo-Pacific economic corridor and play a role in connections stretching from Central Asia to Southeast Asia and China. But Bangladesh must come forward in this regard. Its foreign policy must not be moulded by domestic politics or by ambitions to stay in power. Long-term national interests must be given priority.

It is still not clear whether the US government of Joe Biden will change its India-centric policy as regards Bangladesh. But simply increasing dependence on India to contain China in the region, will not have a positive impact on US credibility in Bangladesh. Instead, Bangladesh and US should proceed ahead on the basis of their own interests and understanding.

Ali Riaz is a distinguished professor at the Illinois State University in the US, a nonresident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council and the president of the American Institute of Bangladesh Studies.

Saimum Parvez is a teacher at North South University's department of political science and sociology. He recently earned his doctorate degree from the University of Sydney. He carries out research on terrorism, digital media and Bangladesh politics.​

 

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Significance of Bangladesh in South Asia’s geopolitical game

India must remain adaptable and maintain its role as a key partner in Bangladesh’s development. The new government’s policies will be critical in shaping the future of Bangladesh's international relations and its position within South Asian geopolitics.

thesouthfirst.com

Significance of Bangladesh in South Asia’s geopolitical game

India must remain adaptable and maintain its role as a key partner in Bangladesh’s development. The new government’s policies will be critical in shaping the future of Bangladesh's international relations and its position within South Asian geopolitics.
By Colonel Pankaj Narayan (Retd)
Published Sep 17, 2024 | 10:59 AM ⚊ Updated Sep 17, 2024 | 10:59 AM

The recent ouster of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh's former prime minister who had ruled since January 2009, marks a significant shift. Pictured, Sheikh Hasina with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New York in September 2020. (PMO)

For India, Bangladesh is not just a neighbour but a crucial ally in its Act East Policy, aimed at strengthening ties with Southeast Asia.

The strategic importance of Bangladesh is underscored by its location near the Siliguri Corridor — a narrow, 60 km long, and 20-22 km wide strip that connects India’s northeastern states to the rest of the country.

This corridor is vital for India as it is a key chokepoint, often called the “chicken neck.” The development of transport links, such as the Kolkata-Tongi-Akhaura and Agartala routes, which traverse Bangladesh, play a critical role in securing this corridor.

A stable and cooperative Bangladesh is essential for maintaining these vital connections.

Possible impact on Indian exports

Moreover, insurgent groups in Northeast India often find refuge in neighboring countries, including Bangladesh. Effective management of these insurgencies is dependent on maintaining strong diplomatic ties with Bangladesh.

The recent surge in Rohingya migrants, escaping from Myanmar, poses challenges for both Bangladesh and India. A stable Bangladeshi government is crucial in controlling migration flows and ensuring regional stability.

Economically, Bangladesh is an important market for Indian goods. Any instability within Bangladesh could negatively impact demand for Indian exports. Growing anti-India sentiments among younger generations in Bangladesh could jeopardize bilateral relations.

Hence, it is in India’s interest to foster a stable and cooperative Bangladesh.

China’s calculated maneuvering

China’s growing ambitions in South Asian geopolitics have shifted the regional balance, particularly concerning Bangladesh’s strategic position in the Bay of Bengal.

The Bay of Bengal is a critical zone for China due to its strategic proximity to the Strait of Malacca, a major shipping route vital for global trade. The strait, linking the Andaman Sea to the Java Sea, is pivotal for Chinese trade, with about 25 percent of global trade passing through it.

China’s concern over potential Indian control over this route has led it to seek alternative pathways, making Bangladesh a significant player in its strategy.

China’s failure to secure a route through Pakistan’s Belt and Road Initiative has intensified its interest in Bangladesh. By establishing strong ties with Bangladesh, China can potentially use Bangladeshi ports and routes as alternatives, if the Strait of Malacca is obstructed.

Moreover, China’s strategy to encircle India involves exerting influence over Bangladesh, which could be used to disrupt the crucial Siliguri Corridor, thus impacting India’s northeastern states.

The USA’s strategic engagement

For the USA, Bangladesh represents a critical component in the broader geopolitical landscape of South Asia. The shifting balance of power between India and China makes Bangladesh a strategic player. Additionally, Bangladesh is a significant supplier of garments to the USA,
making it an important economic partner.

The USA has a vested interest in stabilizing Myanmar and addressing the Rohingya crisis, an issue Bangladesh is deeply involved in. The USA’s support could be crucial for Bangladesh in managing this humanitarian challenge and reducing its dependency on China.

With the experiences of Sri Lanka and Pakistan in mind, Bangladesh is cautious about taking loans and participating in Chinese initiatives. It sees India as a more reliable partner, particularly in areas such as electricity, trade, and water management through the Joint Rivers Commission.

Looking ahead

The recent ouster of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s former prime minister who had ruled since January 2009, marks a significant shift. The escalation began with student protests and has been linked to influences from the USA, China, and Pakistan. As Bangladesh transitions to a
new government, its foreign policy, and regional alignment will be under scrutiny.

In this evolving scenario, India must remain adaptable and maintain its role as a key partner in Bangladesh’s development. The new government’s policies will be critical in shaping the future of Bangladesh’s international relations and its position within South Asian geopolitics.

As such, maintaining a balanced approach with India, China, and the USA will be essential for Bangladesh to navigate its complex geopolitical landscape effectively.​

 

[Saif]

China-Bangladesh Relations: Analysis in Light of GeoPolitical and Geo-Economic Perspective