[🇧🇩] Trump's Victory/Tariff/ Bangladesh

[Saif]

How Trump's economic policies will impact South Asia

Bangladesh will encounter various challenges and opportunities during Trump's second term.

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How Trump's economic policies will impact South Asia

Trump 2.0 administration would likely focus on economic nationalism, prioritising US interests with potential tax cuts for individuals and corporations to spur growth. FILE PHOTO: REUTERS

As Donald Trump prepares to be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States on January 20, marking the start of his second term, this occasion highlights essential democratic traditions and carries significant implications for his economic policies that will resonate globally. Joseph Liow Chin Yong, dean of the College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore, told the Time magazine after the election that Trump would be "more prepared" in 2025. His anticipated economic policies, driven by an "America First" agenda, are set to transform not only the financial landscape in the US, but also that across South Asia, a region home to nearly two billion people and with vast opportunities and substantial challenges.

Trump, branding himself as a "tariff man," centres his economic platform on trade levies. A Trump 2.0 administration would likely focus on economic nationalism, prioritising US interests with potential tax cuts for individuals and corporations to spur growth, possibly making parts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 permanent. He intends to reduce regulations in energy, finance, and healthcare to lower compliance costs and boost economic activity. Maintaining a protectionist trade approach, he aims to renegotiate agreements, impose tariffs on imports—especially from China—and foster domestic manufacturing. In his 2024 campaign, he proposed at least 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports and 10-20 percent on global imports. He has threatened tariffs on companies like John Deere for considering offshoring, and could levy 100 percent tariffs on the BRICS nations if they create a trade currency. Further tariff threats are expected as Trump views them as vital to diplomatic leverage. Advisers' proposals may enable the president to impose "reciprocal tariffs" matching those of other nations.

Infrastructure spending may be prioritised, with plans for significant investment in transportation, energy, and technology to create jobs. Policies aimed at energy independence would support fossil fuel production and relax environmental regulations. Economic initiatives could align with immigration reform, limiting immigration to safeguard jobs while seeking skilled labour for growth. Trump may advocate for domestic manufacturing through subsidies or tax breaks, and assist small businesses by enhancing access to capital and easing regulatory burdens. Additionally, he may pursue healthcare reforms to reduce costs and boost competition, including efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Overall, these strategies would prioritise national security by protecting US industries and jobs from foreign competition.

How Trumponomics 2.0 could impact South Asia

Washington's South Asia policy will align with its Indo-Pacific vision initially established during Trump 1.0. His foreign policy could significantly influence the region's security and economy, with India playing a key role due to its contributions to the Indo-Pacific. A second Trump presidency might reshape the current dynamics of South Asian geopolitics and economics. Trump opposes rerouting US-China trade through third countries, with Oxford Economics predicting that his tariffs could decrease US imports by three percent and exports by eight percent, impacting "non-China Asia." The ongoing US-China trade tensions could drive a restructuring of global supply chains, potentially shifting 20 percent of manufacturing away from China by 2025. During the previous administration, countries like Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand benefited from the trade war as factories relocated there to establish new supply chains. However, the competition for low-cost manufacturing remains fierce, particularly with Vietnam attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) at a much higher rate—$36.6 billion in 2023—compared to Bangladesh ($3 billion). India has a robust infrastructure to appeal to export-oriented manufacturers, but regional trade partnerships face challenges.

An "America First" agenda under the Trump administration could impose tariffs detrimental to export-reliant economies like Bangladesh and India. A five percent tariff increase on Bangladeshi exports, valued at $9.74 billion (2022), could result in a $487 million annual loss. Additionally, tighter immigration policies may reduce remittances—a crucial income source for South Asia. In 2023, Bangladesh received $2.6 billion in remittances from the US, making up 15 percent of its total inflows.

Trump aims to implement strict measures on immigration, including ending the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme and the Public Charge Policy. This could strip protective status from over half a million DACA recipients and amplify fears among immigrant families about accessing essential services like healthcare. Stricter immigration policies may also reduce the flow of skilled labour and remittances, affecting various South Asian countries. Additionally, educational exchanges might suffer, as over 200,000 South Asian students currently studying in the US could choose more welcoming countries like those in Europe, Canada or Australia. Lastly, India's rising influence in the QUAD bolsters its strategic role but may marginalise smaller economies that overlook regional cooperation through bodies like SAARC or ASEAN.

Challenges and opportunities for Bangladesh

Bangladesh will encounter various challenges and opportunities during Trump's second term. The ready-made garment (RMG) sector, which comprised 84.7 percent of total merchandise exports in FY23 (ERD, 2024), offers low added value compared to the overall product value. To ascend the global value chain, Bangladesh must focus on creating more sophisticated products and enhancing backward and forward linkages. Although product diversification has occurred, areas such as design, branding, sales, and after-sales services remain largely unaddressed. Strengthening backward linkages is crucial for increasing domestic value addition. Moreover, diversifying the export base is essential to mitigate vulnerabilities associated with tariff hikes. Promising sectors like ICT, pharmaceuticals and agro-processing, which showed significant growth in 2023, offer viable alternatives to reduce economic risks.

Other serious needs include infrastructure development, in which Bangladesh is ranked 88th out of 139 countries regarding logistics performance (2023), far from Vietnam's 43rd and India's 38th positions. In the current realignment of global supply chains, how Bangladesh will be able to attract FDI to its industrial zones is a challenge that needs consideration, along with the rationalisation of regulations. Migration and remittances remain critical, with $2.6 billion received from the US in 2023; exploring partnerships with countries like Canada, the UK, and Australia that have friendlier immigration policies could bring relief.

It is also important that in the education sector, much effort should be invested in strengthening local institutions and building international academic collaborations as a hedge against the risk of more stringent visa policies by the US, given that over 9,000 Bangladeshi students pursue higher education there every year. Finally, when India is increasingly strengthening its role within QUAD, Bangladesh will have to go further in regional cooperation through SAARC and ASEAN, forging partnerships with other countries like Vietnam and Indonesia for its protection of economic and strategic interests.

For South Asia and Bangladesh to navigate the challenges posed by Trump's policy agenda, proactive measures are essential. The region must lead efforts to foster cooperation in response to shifting global dynamics, while Bangladesh should focus on diversifying exports, attracting foreign investment, and improving infrastructure. Innovative strategies are necessary to promote a fair migration agenda, ensuring equitable benefits from labour migration for countries of origin and destination, employers, and all workers—both nationals and migrants. Strengthening ties with new destination countries and enhancing domestic educational opportunities are vital steps to mitigate risks and leverage emerging opportunities for sustainable growth in an evolving world.

Dr Md Abdul Latif, a global ambassador and ADB-JSP scholar, is additional director at the Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Management (BIGM).

Shirin Sultana is research associate at the Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Management (BIGM).​

 

[Saif]

View from the US: Donald Trump’s election

In anticipation of the election, a growing portion of Bangladeshis reported dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party.

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View from the US: Donald Trump’s election

Donald Trump at his victory rally in West Palm Beach, Florida, US, November 6, 2024. FILE PHOTO: REUTERS

As we approach the January 20 inauguration of Donald Trump for his second term as the US president, Bangladeshis are reflecting on the US presidential election's outcome and examining the changes in the diaspora's politics. In the run-up to the election, a growing number of Bangladeshis reported dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party. Now that the election has concluded, it appears that murmurs of a rightward shift towards Donald Trump in the diaspora were rooted in reality.

Many areas with large Bangladeshi populations saw a jump in the popularity of Donald Trump and a decrease in votes for the Democratic Party compared to support for previous liberal presidential candidates. In Michigan's Hamtramck, a majority-Muslim town where Bangladeshis make up the largest portion of the population, net support for Trump saw a shift of 29 percentage points, even though Kamala Harris carried the majority of votes. Reasons for the shift are numerous, encompassing the varied issues Bangladeshis expressed concern about in the weeks leading up to the election, including the economy and the Gaza war.

ASM Kamal Rahman, a Democrat and Bangladeshi-American community activist in Hamtramck, broke with his party and voted for Trump because of taxes and economic issues. He told Voice of America, "I think everybody that lives here, they look at the issues that affect them here: the economy, the education system affecting the families." Mohammad Alauddin, a Bangladeshi immigrant in Hamtramck who voted for Trump in this election, after having previously voted for Biden, considered the Democratic response to the Gaza war to be the impetus for his decision.

These common concerns also played a role in New York City, where the Democratic margins have significantly fallen compared to previous years. Nearly half of Bangladeshi-Americans live in New York, a majority of whom live in the NY-14 district, which is represented by noted progressive politician Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Though Harris won the NY-14 district, the 2024 election saw a 22-point shift in the margins between Democrats and Republicans compared to 2020, while Ocasio-Cortez saw only a six-point reduction in her net margin.

These reports signal a sharp shift in the Bangladeshi demographic's voting, as they have traditionally prioritised liberal politics, with 91 percent voting for Joe Biden in 2020, according to the National Asian American Survey. It remains to be seen if this increased support for Trump among Bangladeshi-Americans will translate into benefits. While democracy is often discussed in terms of individuals and groups voting for their own interests, it is unclear if Trump's presidency will benefit, rather than negatively impact, Bangladeshis.

Trump, known for his erratic rhetoric towards immigrants, has promised mass deportations, which could prove threatening to the safety of the predominantly Muslim Bangladeshi-American population, or at the very least, will cause disruptions in their communities as the promised mass deportation begins "on Day 1."

Furthermore, the impact of his economic policies on Bangladeshi-Americans is not yet clear. Trump has promised to make housing more affordable, help the middle-class group, and decrease prices, but it is uncertain whether this can be achieved. One of his key economic policies is the raising of tariffs, which could affect global trade dynamics and Bangladesh-US trade.

Further complicating his potential Bangladesh policy, Trump has a warm personal relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and in a Diwali message on November 1 on the social media platform X, he condemned what he referred to as "the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos," alluding to an untrue narrative of Hindu persecution. This could lead to a negative impact on Bangladesh-US relations at a crucial juncture in Bangladeshi politics.

Due to these dynamics, when Donald Trump takes office on January 20, Bangladeshis will have to reckon with what the Trump presidency will mean in the United States and at home.

Sophia Ahmed is a Bangladesh-American student journalist living in New York.​

 

[Saif]

Bangladesh sees window of opportunity in Trump’s trade war

US President-elect Donald Trump’s trade policies towards China and Mexico could ultimately benefit Bangladesh, according to local apparel exporters.

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Bangladesh sees window of opportunity in Trump’s trade war

US President-elect Donald Trump's trade policies towards China and Mexico could ultimately benefit Bangladesh, according to local apparel exporters.

In recent months, Bangladesh's garment exports to the US market have been improving gradually as more American clothing retailers and brands arrive with increased work orders, mainly shifted from China, they said.

The exporters said that punishing tariffs as high as 60 percent on Chinese goods will drive more international clothing retailers and brands to Bangladesh in the future.

Bangladesh is already a preferred destination for American buyers because of competitive prices, its capability to churn out huge export volumes, and improved workplace safety at local factories.

For these reasons, they said Bangladesh has performed strongly in US markets over the years, even with a 15.62 percent duty to the US market.

The US government allows zero-duty benefits on imports of 97 percent of products from the least developed countries (LDCs).

The US government has not included garment items in the 97 percent package, and local garment exporters have urged the government multiple times to negotiate with the US to reduce tariffs on Bangladeshi goods.

AK Azad, chairman and managing director of Ha-Meem Group, who exports the majority of his garment products to the USA, said, "The imposition of high tariffs on China and Mexico will create an opportunity for Bangladesh. A lot of apparel work orders are expected to be shifted from China and Mexico to Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan."

He added that some US-based retailers and brands that shifted work orders away from Bangladesh because of the political crisis and labour unrest last year "are now coming back with increased work orders".

FIRST, BANGLADESH SHOULD GET READY

Azad said Bangladesh should first "do some homework" so that the opportunity can be utilised.

For instance, adequate supplies of utilities such as gas and power need to be ensured for industrial units to run at full production, he added, noting that gas prices are already high for industrial use.

MA Jabbar, managing director of DBL Group, echoed Azad's views.

"The buyers are preferring Bangladesh now as Trump in his speeches said he would impose a high tariff on Chinese and Mexican goods," he said.

In recent years, some basic garment orders were shifted to Mexico but are now returning to Bangladesh, he said, calling for adequate energy supplies to industrial units to enable them to run at full capacity.

The law and order situation should be improved, and investment in man-made fibre, garment, and backward linkage industries needs to be developed soon to capture more of the American market, he said.

Faruque Hassan, former president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said, "So far, Trump's speeches have indicated that he will impose a higher tariff on goods from China and Mexico, which may open a new window of opportunity for Bangladesh."

"If the Trump administration imposes higher tariffs on goods from China and Mexico, either the work orders or investment will shift to Bangladesh from these two countries," he said.

LOCAL EXPORTERS BOAST BRIGHT PROSPECTS

Following the Rana Plaza garment factory collapse in 2013 and subsequent Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) withdrawal by the US, Bangladesh has made remarkable improvements in workplace safety to meet international standards.

This has already somewhat satisfied American retailers and brands.

As a result, international clothing retailers and brands can no longer question the country's compliance standards and improved variety of clothing items.

Moreover, the longstanding issue of double fumigation of US cotton in Bangladesh has been lifted at the request of the Biden administration, improving trade relations between the US and Bangladesh.

Double fumigation of US cotton had been a requirement in Bangladesh for almost 50 years. Lifting this requirement simplifies trade and lowers the cost and time of importing US cotton.

Local exporters believe their strong performance record will help the Trump administration view Bangladesh as a reliable source of clothing items.

Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, said, "Garment export may increase as Bangladesh does not have any other competitive products to be exported to the USA."

"If Bangladesh can improve the investment climate, like improving energy supply, the country may further benefit from the shifted investment from China and Mexico due to the imposition of high tariffs and the sustained tariff war between the USA and China," Reaz added.

Republican president-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in at the White House tomorrow for a four-year term.​

 

[Saif]

Bangladesh welcomes Trump as 47th US president

Yunus expressed his strong belief that the two countries will work to open up new areas of cooperation

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Bangladesh welcomes Trump as 47th US president

Photos: Collected

Bangladesh today welcomed US President-elect Donald Trump and reiterated that the two countries will work together to open new areas of cooperation as he begins a new term.

Referring to Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus's congratulatory message to Donald Trump on his election as President of the United States, a spokesperson at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs this evening said the chief adviser expressed his strong belief that the two countries will work to open up new areas of cooperation.

"We reiterate that belief and wish Donald Trump all the best as he begins his new term," he said.

Donald Trump, who overcame impeachments, criminal indictments and a pair of assassination attempts to win another term in the White House, will be sworn in as the 47th president on Monday, taking charge as Republicans assume unified control of Washington and set out to reshape the country's institutions.

Trump will act swiftly after the ceremony, with executive orders already prepared for his signature to jumpstart deportations, increase fossil fuel development and reduce civil service protections for government workers, promising that his term will bring about "a brand new day of American strength and prosperity, dignity and pride."

He plans to try to strike a hopeful tone and call for unity, according to excerpts of his prepared speech provided by a Trump official, who insisted on anonymity to preview the speech, reports AP.

On November 6, congratulating Trump, Yunus said he looks forward to working together with the new US administration to further strengthen the Dhaka-Washington partnership and foster sustainable development.

"I firmly believe that the possibilities are endless as our two friendly nations work towards exploring newer avenues of partnership," said the Nobel Peace Laureate in his message conveying his heartfelt felicitations to Trump.

Prof Yunus said electing Trump as the US President for a second term reflects that his leadership and vision have resonated with the people of the United States of America.

"I am confident that under your stewardship, the United States will thrive and continue to inspire others around the world. Bangladesh and the United States share a long history of friendship and collaboration across numerous areas of mutual interest," said the chief adviser.

He said the relationship continued to grow in depth and breadth during Trump's previous term in the office.

"Aligning with our commitment to a peaceful and inclusive society, the government and the peace-loving people of Bangladesh look forward to partnering and collaborating in your efforts in addressing the global challenges in the pursuit of peace, harmony, stability and prosperity for all," Prof Yunus said.

He conveyed his best wishes for Trump's success as he embarks on this momentous journey of leading his great nation.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain said Bangladesh's ties with major powers like the United States are not government-specific, indicating no major change in relations during Donald Trump's presidency.

"We have nothing to speculate," he earlier said, expressing optimism things will move on smoothly in terms of relations with the United States.

"Our relations with India, China and the US are very important. We will surely maintain balanced relations with these three countries protecting our own interests," Hossain said, adding that Bangladesh is not to be dissatisfied with any country.​

 

[Saif]

Trump’s America First doctrine and its ripple effects on Bangladesh

While Trump’s presidency presents significant challenges, it also offers opportunities for Bangladesh to strengthen its partnership with the US.

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Trump’s America First doctrine and its ripple effects on Bangladesh

The prospect of a second Trump presidency underscores the need for Bangladesh to adopt a proactive, multifaceted approach to managing its relationship with the US. FILE PHOTO: REUTERS

The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House for a second term has reignited discussions about the global implications of his policies, particularly on trade, defence, immigration, and geopolitics. For Bangladesh, a strategically located South Asian nation, these shifts demand careful analysis and a proactive approach to managing its bilateral relationship with the US. While Trump's first presidency (2017-2021) introduced a "transactional" approach to diplomacy under the "America First" doctrine, his potential comeback could exacerbate existing challenges and create new opportunities for Dhaka.

Trade dependency and diversification

The US is Bangladesh's single largest export market, with the ready-made garment (RMG) sector accounting for over 80 percent of exports to the US. In 2022, Bangladesh exported $10.41 billion worth of goods to the US, underscoring the importance of maintaining favourable trade relations. However, Trump's protectionist policies and potential demands for stricter compliance with labour standards or supply chain transparency could complicate this dynamic.

During his first term, Trump withdrew from multilateral trade agreements and emphasised bilateral deals, often using trade relations as leverage for broader political goals. This approach could have serious repercussions for Bangladesh, which relies on preferential trade agreements and access to foreign markets for its economic growth. The Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) programme for Bangladesh, suspended in 2013, might face further delays under another Trump administration.

Bangladesh must diversify its export markets beyond traditional partners, particularly in Europe and North America. Additionally, improving compliance with international labour and environmental standards is imperative. Efforts to upgrade worker safety and rights—initiated after the Rana Plaza tragedy—need renewed vigour. Dhaka should also actively engage in economic diplomacy, presenting itself as a stable and reliable partner in an era of shifting global trade dynamics.

Geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific

Bangladesh's geographic position along the Bay of Bengal makes it a focal point in the growing US-China rivalry. Trump's Indo-Pacific Strategy was a cornerstone of his foreign policy during his first term, aimed at countering China's growing influence through alliances and regional partnerships. Bangladesh, while maintaining close economic ties with China, also participates in regional security initiatives and dialogues with the US.

A more assertive Trump presidency could escalate the militarisation of the Indo-Pacific, compelling Bangladesh to make difficult choices. While the US would likely push for closer defence cooperation under the guise of countering Chinese influence, Bangladesh must balance this with its dependency on Chinese investment in infrastructure and technology. The country's involvement in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has already drawn scrutiny from Washington, making this balancing act even more delicate.

Bangladesh should prioritise its strategic autonomy, refraining from being drawn into the binary US-China competition. By advocating for a multipolar Indo-Pacific, Dhaka can position itself as a neutral, peace-promoting state. Moreover, targeted military and economic cooperation with the US, particularly in areas like maritime security and counterterrorism, can strengthen bilateral ties without alienating China.

The Rohingya crisis: Keeping the global focus alive

One of Bangladesh's most pressing humanitarian challenges is the Rohingya crisis. Hosting over one million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, the country faces immense social, economic, and environmental pressures. Trump's first term was marked by limited engagement in humanitarian crises, and a second term could see further withdrawal from multilateral efforts.

Bangladesh's appeals for international support, particularly for Rohingya repatriation, have been met with mixed responses. While the US has provided significant financial assistance, it has not taken a leadership role in addressing the root causes of the crisis. Trump's scepticism of international institutions like the UN could undermine collective efforts to hold Myanmar accountable for its actions, leaving Bangladesh with fewer avenues for recourse.

To ensure continued support, Bangladesh must adopt a multi-pronged strategy. This includes engaging US lawmakers, think tanks, and advocacy groups to keep the Rohingya crisis on Washington's agenda. Simultaneously, Dhaka should explore partnerships with other countries and organisations to create a global coalition advocating for a durable solution. Highlighting the regional security implications of prolonged refugee displacement can also attract US attention, given its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.

Public diplomacy and countering negative perceptions

During his first term, Trump's rhetoric on Bangladesh was occasionally influenced by domestic political considerations and lobbying efforts. Statements that appeared dismissive of Bangladesh's progress and contributions not only strained bilateral relations but also reinforced negative stereotypes. Additionally, the Bangladeshi diaspora in the US, which plays a vital role in cultural and economic exchanges, remains an underutilised asset in countering such narratives.

Bangladesh needs to invest in public diplomacy, showcasing its achievements in economic growth, poverty reduction, and climate resilience. Initiatives to engage the Bangladeshi diaspora—through cultural festivals, business forums, and academic collaborations—can create a positive narrative and build goodwill. Furthermore, the establishment of Bangladesh-focused programmes at US think tanks and universities can enhance the country's visibility and influence in US policymaking circles.

Challenges for Bangladeshi migrants

Trump's hardline stance on immigration, including restrictions on H-1B visas and enhanced scrutiny of migrants from Muslim-majority countries, has created challenges for Bangladeshi nationals in the US. A second term could see the continuation or expansion of these policies, impacting both skilled professionals and students seeking opportunities in the US.

Bangladesh must advocate for the fair treatment of its nationals, emphasising their contributions to the US economy and society. Strengthening bilateral agreements on labour mobility and skills development can also mitigate the impact of restrictive immigration policies. Additionally, fostering educational and cultural exchanges can build bridges between the two nations.

One of Bangladesh's long-standing challenges is the limited capacity of its diplomatic apparatus to engage effectively with major global powers like the US. While its missions in Washington DC and New York have made strides in recent years, there remains a significant gap in expertise, resources, and strategic planning.

Dhaka should establish specialised units within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to monitor US policy developments and coordinate lobbying efforts. Enhancing the capabilities of its diplomatic missions—through training programmes, recruitment of subject matter experts, and increased funding—will be critical in navigating the complexities of Bangladesh-US relations. Collaboration with international think tanks and advocacy groups can also amplify Bangladesh's voice in Washington.

Opportunities amid challenges

While Trump's presidency presents significant challenges, it also offers opportunities for Bangladesh to strengthen its partnership with the US. The Bay of Bengal's strategic importance and Bangladesh's growing role in regional geopolitics make it a valuable ally in Washington's Indo-Pacific Strategy.

Additionally, Trump's transactional approach to diplomacy provides an opening for Bangladesh to negotiate targeted agreements that align with its national priorities. Areas such as renewable energy, digital technology, and climate resilience offer potential avenues for collaboration.

Crafting a resilient strategy

The prospect of a second Trump presidency underscores the need for Bangladesh to adopt a proactive, multifaceted approach to managing its relationship with the US. By prioritising economic diversification, strategic autonomy, and diplomatic engagement, Dhaka can navigate the uncertainties of this new era while safeguarding its national interests. In a world increasingly defined by competition and unpredictability, resilience and foresight are key to a brighter future for Bangladesh-US relations.

Dr Rakib Al Hasan is a physician, author, activist and international award-winning youth leader of Bangladesh. He is the founder and executive director of the Centre for Partnership Initiative.​

 

[Saif]

Trump’s return raises cautious optimism

Govt, businesses should take proactive measures in light of the new reality

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Trump’s return raises cautious optimism
Govt, businesses should take proactive measures in light of the new reality

VISUAL: STAR

Donald J. Trump's second term as US president is expected to bring significant changes to the world's political and economic order, as reflected in his inaugural speech and the executive orders he signed on Monday. We look ahead to the next four years with cautious optimism, given the unpredictability of his actions during his first term in office (2017-2021).

Trump's re-election to the top seat of a superpower and the continued rise of the ultra-right in the US sends a strong message. It signals a shift in America's view of the world and its international commitment to uphold human rights and promote peace and stability. As before, Trump's America-first policies may significantly impact international affairs where belligerent competitiveness may outweigh reason and compromise. On the other hand, there is hope that Trump, who took credit for brokering the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, may influence an end to the Russia-Ukraine war as well—two biggest international crises in recent years. We, however, hope that his recent scepticism about this ceasefire will not result in another unfair deal for Palestinians, who have already suffered decades of repression by Israel with the support of the US's one-sided policy.

Sadly, America's own track record of human rights violations does not inspire confidence. Trump's pardoning of 1,500 rioters involved in the 2021 Capitol Hill attack signals the supremacy of personal loyalty over the rule of law. What does this act say about the US stance on justice and fairness—values it prescribes to other countries? Moreover, Trump's pledge to launch a "tariff war," his idea of a universal tariff on all foreign goods, and his withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization are quite concerning, especially for countries like Bangladesh. However, the recent meeting between the new Chargé d'Affaires of the US Embassy and Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has left room for hope as the former renewed the pledge to support the interim government on issues including development.

In the meantime, the business community and the government should take proactive measures such as exploring and diversifying markets and products, engaging in diplomatic initiatives, and strengthening regional and bilateral ties with other nations. The government should also engage with the Bangladeshi expatriate community in the US to build a stronger relationship with the Trump administration.

Finally, the prominent presence of tech giants at Trump's inaugural ceremony should be taken seriously. The re-emergence of an ultra-nationalist leader could have serious consequences for the world, particularly in a nuclear and tech-driven era. This is especially alarming for smaller nations like ours. We can only hope that the superpowers will see the bigger picture and that good sense will prevail in building a cooperative world.​

 

[Saif]

Bangladeshis needn't worry over Trump's immigration policy

Trump would want to see elections in Bangladesh as soon as possible In the past 128 years, no US president has received such a large mandate. Donald Trump has succeeded in the electoral and popular votes, as well as in seven swing states. This makes his second-term inauguration especially...

en.prothomalo.com

Bangladeshis needn't worry over Trump's immigration policy
Imtiaz Ahmed
Updated: 21 Jan 2025, 19: 17

Trump would want to see elections in Bangladesh as soon as possible.

In the past 128 years, no US president has received such a large mandate. Donald Trump has succeeded in the electoral and popular votes, as well as in seven swing states. This makes his second-term inauguration especially significant.

Trump's mandate this time is very clear. The victory reflects voters' consensus on two major issues: peace and stopping wars. Under Joe Biden, two wars were ongoing. Trump directly pressured Netanyahu to stop the Gaza war, as heard in leaked phone calls. This can be seen as a reflection of his first mandate. In his speech, Trump said, “I want to be a peace builder and stop all wars.” The key question now is how effective this approach will be in Ukraine as well.

Another reason for Trump's mandate is his slogan, “Make America Great Again,” implying that America is no longer “great.” This signifies America’s decline. Trump stated in his speech, “The decline of America will stop today.” Various problems have arisen within the US due to ongoing wars and the maintenance of military bases.

Internally, the US has decayed. Infrastructure is deteriorating, and the manufacturing sector has moved abroad. Trump has spoken about the healthcare system as well, wanting to bring major changes. One key change is that America’s allies will no longer get things for free; they will have to spend.

This includes NATO. Trump has told Europe that NATO's expenses must increase by 5 per cent. America can no longer bear these costs alone. It’s clear that if Europe increases its spending, they will become more active partners rather than mere dependents on the US. This could enhance Europe’s defence capabilities, giving them the chance to act independently, which would be a step towards a multipolar world order, something Trump appears to accept.

Since America is no longer great, stopping its decline is only possible through partnerships. Trump aims to create a framework for this, where Europe, for example, will now need to spend. This was previously covered by the US, as seen when Trump withdrew funding from the World Health Organization after taking office.

He claimed that the US was spending too much, and others, like China, should contribute more. If China increases spending, its authority will grow as well. In this way, Trump implicitly acknowledges the shift towards a multipolar world. How much of this will happen, only time will tell. However, the people’s mandate is clear: peace and restoring America’s greatness.

The issue of immigration is another point of concern. Trump’s main focus is to curb Hispanic immigration from South America, which has been increasing in the US. Some believe that Hispanics will soon become the largest language group in America. Trump has even suggested renaming the Bay of Mexico to the Bay of America.

He aims to stop illegal immigration, but not legal immigration. The US cannot survive without immigration, and this is not a major concern for Bangladesh, as most of its immigrants are legal. A system of legal immigration allows a country to control illegal immigration.

Before and after the US elections, Trump has tweeted twice about Bangladesh. One tweet concerns the treatment of minorities, which is not a new issue. The previous government in Bangladesh had also been considered by the US on this matter. Another tweet mentions that Trump will build a close relationship with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi.

This is clear. The Republican government will push for elections in Bangladesh soon. The US ambassador to India has already mentioned this.
If the Democratic Party were in power, they might have been more flexible about the timing of the elections. However, the new US administration will likely push for a quick election in Bangladesh.

It should be noted that the previous Democratic administration had also begun discussing these issues. Therefore, this is not something unique to the Trump administration. However, there is no doubt that the Republican government wants to see an elected government in Bangladesh as soon as possible.

**Imtiaz Ahmed is former professor, Department of International Relations, Dhaka University

**This column appeared in the online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Rabiul Islam​

 

[Saif]

TRUMP POLICY SHIFTS: Bangladesh treads tightropes

THE Trump presidency has significantly shaped the trajectory of US-Bangladesh relations, departing from traditional diplomacy and ushering in a transactional foreign policy approach. Under Trump’s leadership, US foreign policy pivoted away from multilateral engagements, focusing instead on...

www.newagebd.net

TRUMP POLICY SHIFTS: Bangladesh treads tightropes
Simon Mohsin 24 January, 2025, 00:00

US president Donald Trump speaks in the Roosevelt Room at the White House on January 21 in Washington, DC. | Agence Frace-Presse/Jim Watson

THE Trump presidency has significantly shaped the trajectory of US-Bangladesh relations, departing from traditional diplomacy and ushering in a transactional foreign policy approach. Under Trump’s leadership, US foreign policy pivoted away from multilateral engagements, focusing instead on bilateral dealings driven by immediate strategic interests. For Bangladesh, navigating this framework during Trump’s initial term and preparing for the anticipated impacts of his second term revealed unique challenges and opportunities.

Since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, its relationship with the United States has been marked by fluctuating degrees of cooperation and contention. In the early years, the US’s reluctance to support Bangladesh’s liberation war left a legacy of scepticism. Over time, however, shared priorities in economic development, counterterrorism, and regional stability helped to strengthen bilateral ties. Yet, recurring issues such as human rights, democracy, and labour standards have often strained this relationship, underscoring the complexity of these interactions.

Bangladesh’s geopolitical significance in South Asia has become increasingly apparent. Nestled between India and China, its strategic location on the Bay of Bengal positions it as a crucial player in global trade and regional security. Recognising these factors, the US has sought deeper engagement with Bangladesh to counter China’s expanding influence. Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Strategy exemplify Washington’s commitment to cultivating partnerships with nations that align with its vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. However, for Bangladesh, aligning too closely with one global power poses the risk of alienating others, necessitating a delicate balancing act.

During Trump’s first term, his administration’s foreign policy reflected a transactional approach, prioritising quid pro quo arrangements over multilateral commitments. For Bangladesh, this manifested in several critical areas. Economic ties with the US remained robust, with the latter serving as the largest export destination for Bangladeshi goods, particularly in the ready-made garment sector. However, Trump’s “America First” policies introduced uncertainties regarding trade tariffs and preferential access, creating apprehension within Bangladesh’s export-driven economy. The US also pressured Bangladesh to improve labour rights and workplace safety, particularly after the Rana Plaza disaster. While these demands aimed to ensure ethical practices, they were often perceived as prerequisites for maintaining favourable trade terms.

Geopolitically, the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy sought to counterbalance China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As a participant in BRI, Bangladesh found itself in the crosshairs of this strategic rivalry. Washington encouraged Dhaka to align more closely with US-led initiatives. Still, Bangladesh’s deepening ties with China in trade and infrastructure — including major projects like the Padma Bridge — complicated this alignment. While Bangladesh pursued a policy of neutrality, its growing economic reliance on China raised concerns in Washington.

Security cooperation between the US and Bangladesh also evolved during Trump’s tenure. Counterterrorism emerged as a shared priority, with the US providing support to address violent extremism within Bangladesh’s borders. Joint training exercises and military aid strengthened defence ties, reflecting mutual interests in regional stability. However, these efforts were occasionally overshadowed by US concerns over human rights abuses by Bangladeshi security forces. The administration’s compartmentalised approach — prioritising strategic gains while downplaying governance issues — highlighted the transactional nature of these engagements.

Democracy and governance in Bangladesh became focal points of contention during Trump’s presidency. The US expressed concerns over alleged democratic backsliding, particularly during the 2014 and 2018 elections, which were marred by allegations of voter suppression, media restrictions and opposition harassment. While the Trump administration raised these issues, it refrained from imposing severe consequences, reflecting a pragmatic stance where strategic interests often superseded moral imperatives. This approach underscored a shift in US foreign policy priorities, where democracy promotion became secondary to immediate geopolitical considerations.

As Trump’s second term unfolds, the implications for US-Bangladesh relations are significant and multifaceted. The intensifying US-China rivalry and evolving regional dynamics will likely influence the trajectory of these interactions. The Trump administration is expected to intensify its efforts to integrate Bangladesh into the Indo-Pacific framework, leveraging diplomatic channels to curtail Chinese influence and align Dhaka more closely with US strategic goals. However, Bangladesh’s balancing act between China and the US will be tested as it seeks to maintain economic and political autonomy while navigating competing global powers.

Economic relations between the US and Bangladesh are poised to face further scrutiny under Trump’s transactional approach. While the US remains a vital market for Bangladeshi exports, particularly in the garment sector, stricter conditions or tariffs could jeopardise these trade flows. Bangladesh’s reliance on the US as its largest trading partner underscores the need for diversification. Expanding trade relationships beyond traditional western markets, including strengthened ties with Asian, African, and Middle Eastern countries, could mitigate potential disruptions. Additionally, opportunities for American investments in energy, technology, and manufacturing sectors may expand, but these will likely be tied to governance or strategic alignment concessions.

The recent suspension of US foreign aid has introduced another layer of complexity to Bangladesh’s relationship with the United States. On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order pausing all foreign assistance for 90 days, initiating a comprehensive review of aid programmes. This decision, rooted in the “America First” doctrine, prioritises aligning aid with US national interests over development goals. The ramifications of this policy shift are significant for Bangladesh, which has historically been a major recipient of US assistance.

US foreign aid has supported Bangladesh’s healthcare, education, and infrastructure sectors. Programmes funded by USAID have addressed critical issues such as maternal and child health, infectious diseases, and disaster preparedness. However, the aid suspension threatens to disrupt these vital initiatives, potentially stalling progress in key areas. For instance, NGOs that rely heavily on US funding may face operational challenges, leading to staff layoffs and reduced services. This impact would be felt most acutely in rural and underserved communities, where US-supported programmes provide essential social safety nets.

The suspension also raises questions about Bangladesh’s diplomatic and economic strategies. A pause in US assistance may be perceived as a signal of reduced commitment from a longstanding ally, prompting Bangladesh to reconsider its foreign policy priorities. China’s growing economic influence in the region presents an alternative, but over-reliance on Chinese investments could limit Bangladesh’s strategic autonomy. Balancing these dynamics will require careful navigation to ensure sustainable development and maintain geopolitical stability.

Bangladesh’s strategic location and regional significance present both opportunities and challenges. Its proximity to the Bay of Bengal positions it as a key player in maritime security, counterterrorism efforts, and regional trade networks. Reduced American involvement in these areas could weaken Bangladesh’s capacity, prompting the country to explore alternative partnerships. China’s growing influence through investments and infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative could provide short-term economic relief but may limit Bangladesh’s diplomatic flexibility in the long run. Bangladesh must adopt a carefully calibrated approach to its foreign policy to maintain autonomy and leverage opportunities.

In response to these evolving dynamics, Bangladesh must prioritise proactive measures to safeguard its national interests. Reducing reliance on foreign aid and trade with a single partner requires comprehensive domestic reforms and targeted strategies. Enhancing tax collection mechanisms, broadening the tax base, and improving public financial management can increase government revenues, providing more sustainable funding for development initiatives. Encouraging remittances through formal banking channels and incentivising expatriate workers can also boost foreign reserves, strengthening Bangladesh’s economic resilience.

Diversifying economic partnerships is another critical priority. By expanding trade relationships with non-traditional markets and negotiating favourable trade agreements, Bangladesh can reduce its dependence on US markets. Strengthening ties with emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will open new avenues for exports and investment, enhancing Bangladesh’s strategic flexibility.

Investments in renewable energy, technology, and local manufacturing can further reduce dependency on external funding. Developing domestic industries and fostering public-private partnerships will create a more resilient economic framework, positioning Bangladesh for sustainable growth. Prioritising education and workforce development to drive innovation-led growth is equally critical, ensuring a competitive edge in the global economy.

Adaptive diplomacy will be crucial in navigating the complexities of US-Bangladesh relations under Trump’s presidency. Engaging in constructive dialogue with US policymakers to emphasise the mutual benefits of sustained cooperation will be essential. Highlighting the success stories of American-funded projects and their contributions to regional stability can strengthen the case for continued investment. Building people-to-people ties through educational exchanges, cultural programs, and professional partnerships can further solidify bilateral relations, fostering goodwill and understanding.

The Trump presidency underscores the importance of strategic adaptability in Bangladesh’s foreign policy. While challenges like trade uncertainties, human rights pressures, and geopolitical rivalries persist, opportunities for deeper economic and security cooperation remain. By strengthening domestic resilience, diversifying partnerships, and engaging in constructive diplomacy, Bangladesh can navigate the complexities of US relations under Trump’s transactional leadership, charting a path toward sustainable growth and equitable prosperity.

Simon Mohsin is a political and international affairs analyst.​

 

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Yunus thanks Trump for continuing aid support for Rohingya

Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus in a statement expressed his gratitude to President Donald Trump for exempting life-saving food and nutrition support for the displaced Rohingya sheltered in Bangladesh from the US aid freeze..“Officials of the US Embassy in Dhaka visited High Representati

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Yunus thanks Trump for continuing aid support for Rohingya

COLLAGE: STAR

Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus in a statement expressed his gratitude to President Donald Trump for exempting life-saving food and nutrition support for the displaced Rohingya sheltered in Bangladesh from the US aid freeze.

"Officials of the US Embassy in Dhaka visited High Representative Dr Khalilur Rahman this afternoon and informed him about this exemption," said the CA's press wing in a statement.

CA's Deputy Press Secretary Apurba Jahangir also confirmed the development at a media briefing at the Foreign Service Academy this evening, reports UNB.

Apurba referred to USAID's nutrition assistance provided to Rohingya refugees and said this assistance will remain unaffected.

Chief Adviser's Press Secretary Shafiqul Shafiqul Alam and Deputy Press Secretary Abul Kalam Azad Majumder were present at the briefing.

US President Donald Trump recently issued an executive order suspending US aid to all countries for 90 days to review it and the decision was not country-specific.

"It's not country specific," Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain told reporters at the foreign ministry when his attention was drawn regarding the executive order.​

 

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US presidential order suspends USAID projects: Should we panic?

The scale, magnitude, and rapidity of the executive order that has now paused all ongoing projects of USAID around the world is one of a kind in the history of aid.

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US presidential order suspends USAID projects: Should we panic?

The executive order issued by US President Trump has nothing to do with Bangladesh or its government. Photo: REUTERS

First of all, we need to stop politicising it. The executive order issued by US President Trump has nothing to do with Bangladesh or its government; neither does the government have anything to be credited or discredited for. USAID represents the interests of the US federal government. It goes through policy shifts depending on the priorities of the Republican or Democratic party and the incumbent US president. That there will be a major shift in USAID's funding policy was known. However, the scale, magnitude, and rapidity of the executive order that has now paused all ongoing projects of USAID around the world is one of a kind in the history of aid.

Which countries are affected?

It is despicable that Indian media and some Bangladeshi media outlets are trying to pick a point here against the Bangladeshi government. The Trump administration issued the executive order shortly after taking the oath on January 20, 2025. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clearly explained that the stop-work order is to review all USAID projects across the globe to assess whether the projects are aligned with the "America First" policy and principles. Staff working on Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility (DEIA) have been sent on mandatory leave. The order exempts emergency food aid from the pause. USAID has obligated funding of $68 billion. Among South Asian countries, Afghanistan stands at the top with $886.5 million in obligated funding, while Nepal stands second with obligated funding of $696.1 million. Bangladesh has obligated funding of $487.5 million and India has obligated funding of $153.3 million. However, all the obligated funding is subject to review.

What does the executive order entail?

The last couple of days were quite volatile for those working on international development. I woke up to a frantic series of emails and WhatsApp messages on January 20: "All media and social media communications related to USAID projects should be stopped immediately," the messages read. The next round of instruction was to stop activities related to DEIA. Finally, the communication was to suspend operations altogether for 85 days, within which there will be a review of the projects.

What is happening now?

As per the order, all USAID projects across the world have been suspended. The projects will now be reviewed based on which recommendations will be made to continue, modify, or cease a foreign assistance programme. This means, unless otherwise written, an ongoing project has not been terminated, rather, the projects have entered a review phase.

What will be the direct effect on Bangladesh?

As per World Bank data, Bangladesh received $5.12 billion in official development assistance (ODA) in 2022. USAID disbursed $469 million in 2022, which decreased to $448 million in 2024. USAID is a major partner, especially for emergency food assistance ($98.8 million), food for progress ($34.2 million), and Rohingya Response ($24.7 million). I do not anticipate much effect on the food assistance and humanitarian programmes that are subject to the review. Moreover, emergency food assistance is already exempt from it. It is evident that the Trump administration will not fund activities that have connections or relevance to DEIA or climate change. The DEIA sanction also extends to gender-based violence and activities related to gender, race, and sex. Health activities are likely to come under severe sanctions in line with the Trump administration's policy related to health in the United States. Bangladesh received around $40 million in aid assistance for health interventions from USAID in 2024. In brief, a review of Trump's internal policy should explain the likely outcomes of the review.

What will be the institutional and individual impact of this order?

Exactly how much of the obligated funding will be terminated is unknown. It is likely that there will be major reshuffles and realignments. In case a project is fully terminated, the shock will be primarily absorbed by the international contractors of USAID. These are all US contractors, barring a few major local contractors. The first hit therefore will be taken at home in the USA. The contractors are unlikely to incur a major loss as all expenses until January 24, 2025, will be paid for. The contractors, of course, have huge opportunity costs as they have to forego projected revenue. Essentially, they will cut down on expenses, trim down their sizes, reduce exposure to USAID, and shift to other donors. All of these will affect a narrow group of executive team members of the contractors in the USA and their regional hubs.

Absurdly, there are local contractors in Bangladesh that are heavily dependent on individual donors. These contractors lack the agility to move. There will be an institutional impact here. In case of termination of projects, there will be an immediate impact on the jobs of the local staff in the projects, a majority of whom are youth. There will be a displacement, but I believe, eventually, the market will absorb them as their skills are interdisciplinary.

The major impact will be on people who are direct recipients of the benefits from the projects. They will be deprived of the transformational services that were being facilitated by the projects. However, USAID is continuing food assistance for the Rohingya refugees, which is an early signal that direct transfers will continue. This means the poorest of the poor will be safeguarded.

Future implications

Change in policy is a constant in any field, but customers are never constant. Any business, whether for-profit or non-profit, should be agile, adaptive, and creative to sustain. By design, aid is temporary. Even though global aid has been on the increasing curve, it is way below the target to support activities to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

In 1970, in the United Nations General Assembly, economically advanced countries committed 0.7 percent of their gross national income (GNI) to official development assistance. In 2023, ODA/GNI stood at 0.37 percent despite overall growth in aid by 1.6 percent between 2022-2023. With an ODA/GNI ratio of 0.24 percent, the USA stands at number 25 among the economically advanced countries. For Bangladesh, the USA is the third largest donor. In terms of global diplomacy for aid, the USA is expected to commit more funding.

However, in terms of how the Trump administration sees aid, the USA's influence on aid might be much bigger than its commitment to aid. Whether the changes administered by the Trump administration are sustained or not is a matter that will be resolved over the next five years. But what is certain is that the organisations working on international aid have to embrace the uncertainty and work towards finding new avenues to support the development targets.

Md Rubaiyath Sarwar is managing director at Innovision Consulting.​