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[🇧🇩] Budget for 2025- 2026
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FY26 budget to prioritise reform initiatives
Shakhawat Hossain 02 March, 2025, 23:39

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The national budget for the forthcoming financial year of 2025-26 will focus on the reform initiatives taken by the interim government aiming at ensuring good governance, eradicating poverty and curbing discrimination to achieve an inclusive economic growth in the country.

Officials referring to a directive given by finance secretary Khairuzzaman Mozumder in the past month said that all ministries and divisions were asked to send information linked to reform programmes taken by the interim government that assumed power on August 8, 2024 after the ouster of autocratic Awami League regime in a mass uprising in July-August past year.

The ministries and divisions have been asked to send the information by March 15, added the officials.

Finance adviser Salehuddin Ahmed, who is expected to announce the national budget on June 5, in his speech would give the updates on reforms in the areas of good governance, inclusive growth and poverty alleviation.

Economists said that it would be highly interesting to know about the reform programmes taken by the ministries and divisions since the national budget would be the first major government document to follow up the spirit of the mass uprising.

People are yet to know about priority reform agendas of the different ministries and division, said former World Bank Dhaka Office chief economist Zahid Hussain.

Besides, people will be able to learn the interim government’s views on mass uprising, to be reflected in the budget speech, he added.

Economists said that the narratives of uprising available in the government documents had so far been prepared by the task forces and commissions led by economists, academicians, law experts and former bureaucrats.

Officials said the finance secretary issued the directive after placing an outline of the new budget before interim government chief adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus on February 5.

They said that the chief adviser suggested a proper reflection of the uprising spirit in the budget document.

It has been reported that the chief adviser directed ministers and divisions to select at least one reform programme out of the recommendations made by the task force on re-strategising the economy and mobilising resources for equitable and sustainable development.

The task force’s recommendations include new institutions in the civil aviation sector, postgraduate education, research in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, information and communication technology and artificial intelligence.

To tackle the issue of over-regulation and bureaucratic hurdles that have long hindered business growth, the task force proposes the creation of a regulatory reform commission tasking it with evaluating and streamlining regulations across sectors, including business operations and taxation.

The finance secretary also sought information regarding the measures taken by the ministries and divisions on the country’s graduation from the least developed country status in 2026.

The government needs to bring about changes in incentives for the export-oriented sector in the budget since the graduation would restrict the facilitating of direct cash subsidy.

Besides, the country would loss preferential tariff in sending goods to the developing and developed countries.

Economists said that the country was in a favourable position to complete graduation from the LDC status.

Some sections of stakeholders have demanded deferring the graduation process, citing disruption in businesses, said Centre for Policy Dialogue distinguished fellow Mustafizur Rahman.

He said that the FY26 budget document should disseminate updates from the ministries and division on the important national issue.

Officials said the finance ministry had planned a big outlay of about Tk 8.5 lakh crore for the 2025-26 financial year, aiming at encouraging business activities.

They said that emphasis would be given on the generation of more revenue by the National Board of Revenue to support the big expenditure plan.

The provisional target for the NBR has been set at Tk 5.2 lakh crore.

The annual development expenditure in FY26 would be close to a third of the total outlay with focus on job creation projects in sectors like education, health and social safety net.​
 
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INTERIM GOVT PLACES TK7.9T MAIDEN BUDGET AMID CHALLENGES
Balancing economic revival, inflation prime promise

Unemployment, inflation, sluggish investment, revenue ruckus main pains in govt's neck


Jasim Uddin Haroon
Published :
Jun 03, 2025 01:10
Updated :
Jun 03, 2025 01:10

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Nearly 10 months after inheriting a faltering economy marked by institutional collapse, many near-empty banks, fastest-depleting forex reserves and inflation running high, the interim government on Monday unveiled its maiden budget prepared taking ground realities into cognizance.

The interim administration has succeeded in calming some nerves of the economy and the administration. But the core afflictions remain: unemployment lingers at worrisome levels, inflation still high, private investment remains sluggish, and the revenue authority faces unrest that poses a threat for mobilising resources.

It is against these tense, and uncertain backdrops that Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed, wearing black blazer and white shirt, stood before the nation to roll out his maiden budget-a sober and restrained document crafted not in the heat of political ambitions.

There was no fanfare, no grand political chorus but with some breaks-only the finance adviser's calm, clinical voice, carried over the quiet airwaves of state-owned Bangladesh television and Bangladesh Betar, and a scattering of private channels.

Presenting the Tk 7.9 trillion worth of national budget for the forthcoming fiscal year 2025-26, Dr Ahmed admits that there are many risks still associated with attaining stability and reviving the economy back to its normalcy.

It comes out for him as an act of balancing economic revival and persistently high inflation in the first place.

Inflation-neutral pivot of the budget from traditional growth-centric budgeting, in the context of July changeover: The fiscal posture of the proposed budget appears to tread a cautious line-inflation-neutral at best-but much hinges on how taxation is structured and how the yawning deficit is financed.

While a deficit of Tk 2.26 trillion may not be alarming in isolation, any sharp upward trajectory could ignite inflationary pressure, especially if borrowing spirals out of control.

Curiously absent from the finance adviser's address was any reference to supply-chain bottlenecks or the grip of middlemen and cartels over the food-distribution system, both widely acknowledged as drivers of food inflation.

Instead, the custodian of exchequer in the interregnum attributes recent moderation in inflation-hovering above 9.0 per cent in May-to the twin deployment of contractionary monetary policy and a tighter fiscal stance.

He projects that inflation would ease further to around 8.0 per cent this June, citing stability in the exchange rate under a market-based regime and expectations of an uptick in imports.

The adviser also mentions fiscal measures such as subsidies to the agricultural sector, though these are long-established and offer little in the way of innovation.

Crowding-out concerns: But deeper in the budget lies a potential hazard. A significant share-55 per cent of the fiscal deficit-is projected to be financed from domestic sources, with over 83 per cent of that through the banking system. Though this amounts to just Tk 50 billion more than the target for the outgoing fiscal year, the implications seem profound.

Without tangible deposit growth to counterbalance the financing burden, the risk of a crowding-out effect in financing lurks.

Banks, drawn to the relative safety of government borrowing instruments, may divert resources away from the private sector, stifling entrepreneurship and productive investment.

Employment and investment--still on shaky ground: Bangladesh's economy is grappling with stubbornly high unemployment, and the budget's promises do little to assuage those concerns.

Both public and private investments are needed to jumpstart job creation and catalyze economic momentum.

While the budget attempts to send policy signals to spur private investment-including a commitment to favourable interest rates and a stable inflation outlook-the practical enablers appear limited.

One-stop service and NBR's single-window initiative, while laudable, remain insufficient in overcoming structural hurdles to doing business.

"We are committed to identifying the existing obstacles to investment and removing them as soon as possible," the finance adviser assures. But rhetoric must now meet reform.

Youth, startups, and entrepreneurial spirit: A silver lining in the budget is a renewed emphasis on entrepreneurship. There are modest but promising allocations aimed at fostering a new generation of business leaders.

Dr Ahmed proposes the creation of a Tk 1.0-billion fund for new entrepreneurs, complemented by another Tk 1.0-billion one for startups-a continuation from previous budgets. An additional Tk 1.0 billion is earmarked for a youth festival, intended to encourage engagement and innovation among the younger demographic.

Moreover, the proposed Annual Development Programme (ADP) worth Tk 2.3 trillion may offer some employment opportunities for the poor, though the extent of its impact is likely to be limited.

Without bold reforms to unblock private-sector investment, address structural inflation triggers, and inspire entrepreneurial dynamism, the economy may struggle to turn its cautious optimism into real, equitable progress.

Ambitious revenue target faces tough realities: a test of reform and resolve: The upcoming fiscal year's total resource-mobilisation target has been set at an eye-popping Tk 5.64 trillion, with the lion's share-Tk 4.99 trillion or 9.0 per cent of GDP-expected to come from the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

But this towering ambition raises eyebrows across the board, as the NBR has never before achieved a target of such magnitude.

This underscores an urgent need for deep-rooted reforms, not just cosmetic adjustments.

Yet the NBR itself remains embroiled in internal road protests, over creating two distinct wings. If this institutional uncertainty persists, it could seriously undermine revenue-collection efforts, dragging down the lofty aspirations set out in the budget.

Despite these tensions, Finance Adviser Dr Ahmed reaffirms the government's intention to pursue reforms at the NBR. He stresses the significance of direct taxation-a sustainable and equitable source of revenue that also plays a critical role in reducing income inequality.

Efforts to modernize tax administration are underway. Mandatory online-return filing for all individual taxpayers is in the pipeline for the coming year, with similar digital systems envisioned for corporate entities in the near future.

Tax policy adjustments: a balancing act: In a nod to inflation-weary citizens, the tax-free income ceiling for individuals has been raised to Tk 375,000 from Tk 350,000-a modest adjustment but a meaningful gesture toward relief amid rising living costs. However, to offset the revenue implications, the lowest tax slab has been hiked from 5.0 to 10 per cent.

In a bid to instill a broader culture of tax compliance, a minimum tax of Tk 1,000 has been introduced for first-time taxpayers-an approach that may build discipline from the ground up.

Reforms beyond revenue: cleaning the institutional slate: The finance adviser acknowledges the necessity of sweeping structural changes, referencing 11 proposed reform commissions covering anti-corruption efforts, judicial independence, land-law modernization, and election commission reforms. These, he argues, are essential to restoring faith in public institutions.

In one of his most pointed remarks, Dr Ahmed laments the collapse of financial governance over the past 15 years, saying, "Millions of taka has been siphoned off from banks."

He decries the culture of "hide-and-seek" around non-performing loans (NPLs), suggesting past administrations obfuscated the true scale of the banking sector's malaise.

Social safety nets: missing efficiency: While the adviser underscores plans to increase both the number of beneficiaries and per-capita allocations under social-safety-net programme, he remains notably silent on efficiency reforms.

Past programmes have often suffered from poor targeting and political manipulation, allegedly dominated by cadres of the ousted Awami League government. No clear blueprint was offered for plugging leakages or improving targeting mechanisms.

Relief for the commoners: Still, the budget does offer some relief for the middle class and consumers. The threshold for excise duty on bank balances has been raised to Tk 300,000 from Tk 100,000-a move expected to reduce the burden on savers.

Moreover, several VAT exemptions have been announced-on LNG, packaged liquid milk, sanitary-napkin production, ballpoint pens, and computer monitors up to 30 inches-all of which may help ease cost pressures on households and small businesses.

Restoring investor confidence and governance: Efforts to revive capital- market participation have also been woven into the budget. The corporate-tax differential between listed and non-listed firms has been widened by 7.5-percentage points, a signal meant to lure local and multinational firms into the capital market.

The source tax on brokerage transactions has been cut to 0.03 per cent from 0.05 per cent.

But these incentives come at a precarious time-many listed companies are trading below their face value, and a large number have failed to declare dividends for years. The reforms must, therefore, be matched by stronger oversight and accountability in market operations.

A budget framed by upheaval: This is, in many ways, an acid test for the finance adviser, who assumed office in the wake of the July Mass Uprising. Rather than chasing high growth figures, the current administration is opting to rebuild the foundational scaffolding of the economy-an approach long overdue.

"Our core objective," Dr Ahmed concludes, "will be to ensure a better quality of life for all, and to build a system free of discrimination at all levels."​
 
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FY26 GDP growth target set at 5.5pc

FE REPORT
Published :
Jun 03, 2025 01:14
Updated :
Jun 03, 2025 01:14

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The interim government has backtracked from the previous administration's ambitious macro-economic targets as it is expecting 5.50 per cent economic growth in the next fiscal year.

It has also revised down the current fiscal year's gross domestic product (GDP) growth target to 5.0 per cent from the earlier 6.75 per cent.

The ousted Sheikh Hasina government took an ambitious 6.75 per cent economic growth target for FY25 despite the internal and external headwinds in the macro-economy.

The interim government has also set a realistic target of 6.0 per cent GDP growth in the medium term for FY27.

Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed in his FY26 national budget speech on Monday said the GDP growth rate may be slightly lower due to the fight against inflation.

"According to provisional estimates, GDP growth in FY25 could be 3.97 per cent. However, we expect the final estimate to be higher. We also expect that the growth rate will rise to 6.5 per cent in the medium term in FY28," he added.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh's economy has been estimated to grow at 3.97 per cent in the outgoing FY25 against the revised target of 5.0 per cent, the latest provisional data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) showed.

According to the 2023 GDP estimation, Bangladesh is the 33rd largest economy in the world.

The FY26 budget has been formulated with a view to accelerating economic growth in order to prepare for graduation from the least developed country (LDC) status, thus reaching the upper-middle income category by creating new jobs, sustaining GDP growth, promoting local industries, increasing investment through protection and trade facilitation, developing export-oriented and heavy industrial enterprises, and promoting the Made in Bangladesh concept.

According to provisional estimations, Bangladesh's GDP size is Tk 55.527 trillion or $462 billion in the current fiscal year.

The government in its medium-term macroeconomic framework says the GDP is expected to reach $487 billion in FY26 with 5.50 per cent expansion.

Meanwhile, the estimated GDP growth has been marked as the lowest in several years, raising concerns among economists and policymakers.

The BBS provisional data revealed modest growth across key sectors - agriculture by 1.79 per cent, industry 4.34 per cent, and services 4.51 per cent in FY25.

While these figures reflect some activities, they fall far short of the government's initial ambitious target of 6.75 per cent and even the revised target of 5.25 per cent GDP growth for the current fiscal year.

This downward revision aligns with earlier projections from international bodies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had adjusted its forecast to 3.76 per cent for FY25, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) 3.9 per cent, and the World Bank (WB) 3.3 per cent.

Although the GDP expanded at a slower rate, per capita income rose to $2,820 in FY25 from $2,738 in the previous fiscal year, the provisional data shows.​
 
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Will the budget offer a release from two sufferings?

Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir
Updated: 02 Jun 2025, 16: 04

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Two crucial questions demand urgent attention in the upcoming budget of the 2025-26 financial year: how to increase domestic resource mobilisation, and how to ensure financing to tackle post-COVID poverty and harm done to income. These questions are not merely financial matters. There are tales of historical sufferings. They continue to haunt the development cycle. The third concern was discussed in an earlier column: “Is the budget a strategy to reduce the debt burden?”

The first suffering was about the looting of resources by the British colonialists. The economist Dadabhai Naoroji had calculated that towards the end of the 19th century, around 30 million to 50 million pounds were extracted out of India every year.

During the devastating famine of 1943, when hundreds of thousands perished in Bengal, the region still functioned as a revenue-generating engine for the empire. Bengal contributed 10 to 15 per cent of British India’s total tax revenue. It is most unfortunate that even as a post-colonial state, Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio stands at only 7.4 per cent. The South Asian average is 10 to 12 per cent, already well below the global average for developing countries. This is a tragic irony: the region once exploited for its revenue is now itself struggling to mobilise domestic resources.

The second suffering is about Lord Beveridge. He was the architect of the United Kingdom’s post–World War II social welfare system. Yet his birthplace, Rangpur, remains one of the poorest regions to this day. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the poverty rate in Rangpur stands at 24.8 per cent, that is, 6.1 percentage points higher than the national average of 18.7 per cent.

The British established a centralised revenue system by appointing British-trained, salaried district collectors instead of intermediaries like zamindars. To reduce corruption, they introduced land surveys, cadastral mapping, and the Permanent Settlement, enabling direct tax collection from farmers. Secondly, they strategically monetised the economy through the cultivation of cash crops such as indigo, opium, jute, and tea. While legal frameworks, administrative rigidity, exploitation, and coercion ensured colonial revenue extraction, the popular uprising of 2024 serves as a reminder that the core objective of a constructing a post-colonial state should be the pursuit of an equitable system.

Many hope that the budget will include a proposal for a universal, life-cycle-based social security system. Such a transformative initiative could play a vital role in overcoming the ‘lower social trap’ created by crises in livelihoods.

Why is the revenue system not effective?

The roots of failure lie in patronage-dependent economy. According to the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), in the 2022-23 fiscal year, tax evasion and illicit financial outflows cost the country an estimated Tk 2.26 trillion (2 lakh 26 thousand crore taka). Corporate tax evasion alone accounted for nearly half of this amount. The 'State of Tax Justice 2024' report states that multinational companies siphon off between three to five billion dollars annually through transfer pricing.

The reactionary nature of the tax system is further exacerbating inequality. Indirect taxes account for 66 per cent of the National Board of Revenue (NBR)'s total revenue collection, with 38 per cent coming from the flat-rate Value Added Tax (VAT). This places a disproportionate burden on low-income households. Only 1.4 per cent of the population files tax returns. The wealthy and elite are adept at exploiting loopholes, for example, by declaring themselves as non-residents or by reclassifying business profits as tax-exempt agricultural income.

Hundreds of thousands of retail businesses are evading VAT by underreporting their annual turnover under the guise of being “small shops.” According to the NBR, out of over three crore (30 million) businesses, only 550,000, or about 2 per cent, are registered for VAT. The informal e-commerce sector also operates without VAT registration. The customs administration is flawed. According to Global Financial Integrity, from 2009 to 2018, Bangladesh lost an average of USD 8.27 billion annually due to under- and over-invoicing of import and export goods. Additionally, prolonged legal entanglements fuel corruption, as seized goods lie in warehouses in uncertain conditions, creating further risks.

Modernising the revenue system

The current interim government is not in a position to undertake and implement the kind of major medium-term reform programmes needed to enhance domestic resource mobilisation. However, the budget can still present a reform strategy and a well-considered implementation plan to address the challenges. Here are five key pillars of the reform agenda:
First, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) should be replaced by an autonomous body. This new tax collection institution could be named the Bangladesh Revenue Authority.

A complete overhaul of the existing system is required to make it effective. Additionally, a separate policy-making institution could be formed by incorporating the existing Tariff and Trade Commission, and named the Bangladesh Tax and Tariff Commission. The core mandate of this body would be to move away from a patronage economy and strategically advance the monetisation of the economy.

Second, the tax code needs to be modernized with a focus on direct taxation. Simplifying the system, mandating digital payment methods, and establishing tax offices at the upazila level would help expand the tax base.

Third, it is essential to introduce technology-driven monitoring mechanisms. For instance, a Tax Identification Dashboard, integrating data from electricity bills, bank transactions, and land records, could enhance oversight. Block chain tracking for bonded warehouses and AI-powered risk assessments would help prevent fraud.\Fourth, enacting an effective transfer pricing law is urgent. Multinational companies must be required to submit master and local files as well as country reports. Strict penalties should be imposed for profit shifting.

Fifth, a green tax framework could be introduced. A carbon tax (for example, Tk 1,200 taka per tonne) could be levied on high carbon-emitting industries such as cement and textiles. The revenue generated could be allocated to the climate adaptation fund.

From multidimensional crises to universal social security

The country is facing multidimensional crises. According to World Bank projections, the poverty rate will rise from 20.5 per cent in 2024 to 22.9 per cent in 2025. Low spending on education and health (respectively 2 per cent and 2.34 per cent of the GDP), coupled with poor education results and high rates of youth not engaged in higher education, employment, or training (41 per cent nationally and 62 per cent among women), pose serious challenges to achieving demographic dividends. These multiple challenges also hinder the achievement of sustainable development goals.
There is rapid urbanisation, but cities are not becoming livable. Economic productivity is not increasing proportionally with the growing population density. The severe impacts of climate change could result in a loss of 5 to 7 per cent of the GDP.

Government allocations for social safety nets are inadequate, flawed, ridden with corruption, and politicised. Social safety net programmes are relief-based and have not yet become universal or rights-based. More than 100 fragmented programmes need to be brought under a single administrative authority.

Many hope that the budget will include a proposal for a universal, life-cycle-based social security system. Such a transformative initiative could play a vital role in overcoming the ‘lower social trap’ created by crises in livelihoods and build resilience so that citizens are not left behind by economic shocks.

A system like this would be a fitting tribute in memory of Abu Sayeed, who grew up in the village Babanpur of Pirganj upazila, Rangpur and was martyred in July 2024. Rangpur is also the very same district where Lord Beveridge was born.

* Dr. Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir is a professor of the Department of Development Studies, University of Dhaka​
 
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What the budget says about reforms?

Staff Correspondent Dhaka
Published: 02 Jun 2025, 18: 16

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Finance adviser Salehuddin Ahmed has presented the annual budget for 2025-26 fiscal year, with a comprehensive package of reform measures for restoring good governance, ensuring institutional accountability, and rebuilding a crumbling financial system.

In his budget speech, the finance adviser noted that the institutions have been severely weakened over the past one and a half decades due to widespread corruption and poor governance. He noted the reform commission reports and the interim government’s action plan in this regard.

Tackling corruption and strengthening accountability

Salehuddin Ahmed mentioned that the interim government has initiated amendments to the Anti-Corruption Commission Act, 2004. Between July 2024 and January 2025, 515 corruption cases were registered and 814 charge sheets submitted. Of 144 disposed cases, 59 led to convictions.

In line with the United Nations Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC), steps are being taken to recover laundered money from abroad. Recommendations by the Anti-Corruption Commission Reform Commission and findings from the White Paper on past corruption are being integrated into new policy measures.

Land, judiciary, and electoral reforms

To simplify land-related services and reduce litigation, the government has adopted the 'Land Offences Prevention and Remedy Rules, 2024', and is drafting the 'Land Zoning and Protection Act, 2025'. A digital land management system is being introduced to automate records and registration, leading to improved transparency and revenue collection.

Judicial reforms have also been prioritised. Thirteen monitoring committees comprising 13 High Court judges now oversee subordinate courts to speed up case disposal. The Supreme Court Judicial Appointment Ordinance, 2025 aims to ensure transparency in judicial appointments. An international-standard judicial academy is being established to provide modern training to court officials.

In terms of electoral reforms, the Bangladesh Election Commission has updated the voter list and is using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to enhance transparency and accuracy. Legal amendments have also been made to prevent manipulation in future elections.

The interim government is also addressing injustices over the student-people movement in 2024. Many politically motivated and fabricated cases filed under the Anti-Terrorism Act and the Cyber Security Act are being withdrawn. To prosecute crimes against humanity committed during that time, the government has enacted the International Crimes (Tribunals) (Amendment) Ordinance, 2024, aligning it with the Rome Statute and international legal norms.

Financial sector reforms

Describing the financial sector as being on the verge of collapse due to 15 years of mismanagement, the finance adviser highlighted sweeping reforms to restore confidence and ensure accountability. The boards of several banks have been restructured, and the Bank Resolution Ordinance, 2025 has been enacted to deal with insolvency and liquidity crises. The Bangladesh Bank Ordinance, 1972 is being amended, and a weak asset management law is in development.

Three task forces are overseeing key aspects of banking reform—assessing asset quality, boosting regulatory capacity, and recovering stolen or laundered funds. Besides, the Bangladesh Bank has formed a financial stability committee to understand the dynamics of the financial sector and determine the steps to be taken to maintain the stability of the financial system.​
 
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Budget comes with slim deficit
Revenue target high, local industries to face competition: economists
Shakhawat Hossain 03 June, 2025, 00:04

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The interim government on Monday announced the new national budget at Tk 7.9 lakh crore, projecting ambitious revenue-earning measures to keep the deficit at tolerable 3.6 per cent.

Finance adviser Salehuddin Ahmed, while unveiling the new measures for the financial year 2025-26 in a televised presentation in the absence of Jatiya Sangsad, projected an overall income of Tk 5.64 lakh crore, of which some 88.4 per cent is expected to come via the National Board of Revenue through direct tax, duty and value added tax.

Limiting the undisclosed money investment facility in land and flats with a provision for declaring the source of fund and a steep hike in the tax for investments, the finance adviser also announced cancelling exemption of corporate tax and value added tax for industries.

Announcements have also been made to relax duty on imported products such as refined sugar, petroleum products, buses, minibuses, guns, mortars, rocket launchers, grenade launchers while there would be hike in duty on cosmetics, toys, cell phones, and different types of door locks in an effort to address the tariff rationalisation issue ahead of the country’s graduation from the least developed countries’ block in November 2026.

Economists said that the new tariff measures might force many domestic industries to face a tougher competition and draw criticisms from businesses.

Commenting that some aspects of the financing side of the budget are new, former World Bank Dhaka office chief economist Zahid Hussain observed that the overall revenue income target was highly ambitious.

He apprehended that shortfalls in revenue earnings would compel the interim government to downsize the overall budget or increase borrowings to meet the deficit.

According to him, the expenditure side of the budget is almost usual.

Out of the projected Tk 5.44 lakh crore non-development budget, the highest 22.4 per cent has to be set aside for payment of interest on internal and external borrowings and 19.1 per cent for subsidy and incentives.

The allocation to the public administration will account for 10.2 per cent of the budget, some one percentage point higher than the allocation made in the outgoing budget.

The finance adviser proposed to increase special benefit for the government employees in the new budget to meet the demand for dearness allowance.

Narrating the measures and actions taken over the past 10 months to improve the economic headwinds left behind by the ousted Awami League regime in the wake of a mass uprising, the finance adviser proposed increased rates of allowances under the social safety net programme along with higher allocations to the education and health sectors.

Proposing higher allocations for open market sales and the distribution of subsidised food for card holders against the backdrop of inflation, the finance adviser sanctioned Tk 405 crore for martyrs and injured persons during the July uprising in 2024.

Economists, however, said that the finance adviser had failed to live up to the expectation arising out of the true spirit of the uprising because of giving less focus on employment and investment by private sector businesses.

Demands for reducing inequality and increasing employment by students in the uprising found partial reflection in the budget, said executive director Selim Raihan of South Asian Network on Economic Modelling.

The responses are fragmented and limited, he said, adding that the budget lacked concrete policy guarantees or a road map for creating an investment-friendly environment.

Unlike like previous occasions, the finance adviser did not make any direct projection of GDP growth, inflation and private investment in his budget speech titled ‘Building an Equitable and Sustainable Economic System’.

The target of 5.5 per cent growth in gross domestic product, inflation at 6.5 per cent, and private investment at 24.31 per cent in FY26 are, however, made available in the Medium-Term Outlook of Bangladesh Economy.

Admitting that it is not easy to deal with the instability at the regional and global levels, the finance adviser projected net loans of Tk 96,000 crore from external sources and a net Tk 1.25 lakh crore borrowing from domestic sources to meet the deficit accounting for 3.6 per cent of the projected GDP at Tk 62.44 lakh crore in FY26.

This is the smallest budget deficit in a decade, largely because of a small annual development programme , worth Tk 2.3 lakh crore, adopted to implement only economically viable projects with main focuses on improving the implementation rate and quality of the projects.

The total new budget outlay is Tk 7,000 crore less than the original size of Tk 7.97 lakh crore announced in June 2024 for the outgoing financial year 2024-25, but higher by Tk 46,000 crore from the revised of Tk 7.44 lakh.​
 
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