Saif
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Since the video also talks about China's relation with Bangladesh I am posting the link here.
[🇧🇩] China is a Time Tested Friend and a Strategic Partner of Bangladesh
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Bangladesh Defense
Saif
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China deflation can help BD economic reflation with cheap imports
Deep deflation in China offers Bangladesh prospect of economic reflation with cheaper imports, particularly of capital goods. Bangladesh being heavily dependent on imports from the world's second-largest economy, lower import costs are believed to provide it some relief on the overall econom
China deflation can help BD economic reflation with cheap imports
Country's 28pc imports sourced from China
Jasim Uddin Haroon
Published :
Oct 14, 2024 00:18
Updated :
Oct 14, 2024 00:18
Deep deflation in China offers Bangladesh prospect of economic reflation with cheaper imports, particularly of capital goods.
Bangladesh being heavily dependent on imports from the world's second-largest economy, lower import costs are believed to provide it some relief on the overall economic front.
In May 2024 alone, Bangladesh sourced over 28 per cent of its imports from China, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
Additionally, China is Bangladesh's largest trading partner, accounting for 18.36 per cent of stake in the country's total trade in goods as of the May report.
Deflation typically occurs when supply exceeds demand-either through excess production or a drop in consumption. In China's case, industrial overcapacity and weak household demand have been identified as the primary causes of deflation.
According to the Financial Times, China's consumer price index (CPI) increased by just 0.4 per cent year on year in September, while the producer price index (PPI) fell 2.8 per cent during the same period.
Economists note that most of Bangladesh's industrial output, for both domestic and export markets, depends on imported inputs, mainly coming from China having mass production driven by technological as well as productive forces' expeditious advances.
As deflation makes raw materials and intermediate goods cheaper, local manufacturers in Bangladesh stand to benefit from it, as a blessing in disguise.
"Manufacturing enterprises will benefit from cheaper imports during this deflationary period, which may help boost production," says Dr Zahid Hussain, an independent economist currently working with Bangladesh's White Paper Preparation Committee on the economy.
"Chinese goods are currently very competitively priced. However, we should be cautious about bulk buying as prices could drop further," he adds, on a cautious note of optimism.
Deflation, however, can take time to stabilize. Japan, for example, experienced deflation starting in 1989, and it took nearly 30 years to recover. Similarly, the United States endured about eight years of economic struggle during the Great Depression in the 1930s.
In economic terms, deflation is often viewed as more harmful than inflation.
John Maynard Keynes, one of the most influential economists, famously remarked: "Inflation is unjust, and deflation is inexpedient."
Dr Hussain also believes that China's economic depression will positively impact Bangladesh's exports. "Deflation is expected to leave a significant positive impact on Bangladesh's economy, especially its exports."
Chairman of Policy Exchange of Bangladesh Dr M. Masrur Reaz told The Financial Express that the drop in prices of Chinese goods-around 18 per cent over the past three months-was good news for Bangladesh.
"This will reduce import costs for Bangladeshi entrepreneurs," he said.
Dr Masrur said while Bangladesh's currency had been depreciated in efforts to stabilize the foreign-exchange market, China's deflation could ease the pressure as Chinese-made products now become cheaper.
He suggests that local entrepreneurs should consider locking in supply contracts for the next year or two to secure lower prices for raw materials and intermediate goods. This strategy, he says, could help offset the effects of domestic inflation.
He mentions that many domestic goods in Bangladesh are produced using Chinese raw materials or intermediate goods, and this could help reduce the stubborn inflation in the future.
Country's 28pc imports sourced from China
Jasim Uddin Haroon
Published :
Oct 14, 2024 00:18
Updated :
Oct 14, 2024 00:18
Deep deflation in China offers Bangladesh prospect of economic reflation with cheaper imports, particularly of capital goods.
Bangladesh being heavily dependent on imports from the world's second-largest economy, lower import costs are believed to provide it some relief on the overall economic front.
In May 2024 alone, Bangladesh sourced over 28 per cent of its imports from China, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
Additionally, China is Bangladesh's largest trading partner, accounting for 18.36 per cent of stake in the country's total trade in goods as of the May report.
Deflation typically occurs when supply exceeds demand-either through excess production or a drop in consumption. In China's case, industrial overcapacity and weak household demand have been identified as the primary causes of deflation.
According to the Financial Times, China's consumer price index (CPI) increased by just 0.4 per cent year on year in September, while the producer price index (PPI) fell 2.8 per cent during the same period.
Economists note that most of Bangladesh's industrial output, for both domestic and export markets, depends on imported inputs, mainly coming from China having mass production driven by technological as well as productive forces' expeditious advances.
As deflation makes raw materials and intermediate goods cheaper, local manufacturers in Bangladesh stand to benefit from it, as a blessing in disguise.
"Manufacturing enterprises will benefit from cheaper imports during this deflationary period, which may help boost production," says Dr Zahid Hussain, an independent economist currently working with Bangladesh's White Paper Preparation Committee on the economy.
"Chinese goods are currently very competitively priced. However, we should be cautious about bulk buying as prices could drop further," he adds, on a cautious note of optimism.
Deflation, however, can take time to stabilize. Japan, for example, experienced deflation starting in 1989, and it took nearly 30 years to recover. Similarly, the United States endured about eight years of economic struggle during the Great Depression in the 1930s.
In economic terms, deflation is often viewed as more harmful than inflation.
John Maynard Keynes, one of the most influential economists, famously remarked: "Inflation is unjust, and deflation is inexpedient."
Dr Hussain also believes that China's economic depression will positively impact Bangladesh's exports. "Deflation is expected to leave a significant positive impact on Bangladesh's economy, especially its exports."
Chairman of Policy Exchange of Bangladesh Dr M. Masrur Reaz told The Financial Express that the drop in prices of Chinese goods-around 18 per cent over the past three months-was good news for Bangladesh.
"This will reduce import costs for Bangladeshi entrepreneurs," he said.
Dr Masrur said while Bangladesh's currency had been depreciated in efforts to stabilize the foreign-exchange market, China's deflation could ease the pressure as Chinese-made products now become cheaper.
He suggests that local entrepreneurs should consider locking in supply contracts for the next year or two to secure lower prices for raw materials and intermediate goods. This strategy, he says, could help offset the effects of domestic inflation.
He mentions that many domestic goods in Bangladesh are produced using Chinese raw materials or intermediate goods, and this could help reduce the stubborn inflation in the future.
Saif
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BIISS seminar
Relations with China should be considered holistically
Relations with China should be considered holistically
- Govt’s focus on defence and economic cooperation
- Reevaluation of Chinese loan interest terms is necessary
Foreign affairs adviser Md. Touhid Hossain addresses a seminar "Bangladesh-China Relations: A Future Outlook" jointly organised by Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies and Centre for China Studies with the help of the Chinese embassy in Dhaka on 14 October 2024 BSS
The future of relations with China should be viewed holistically, taking into account the post-revolutionary situation, in the context of the significant political change in the history of Bangladesh.
Bangladesh wants to put emphasis on defence and economic cooperation for the interests of the future of the relationship between the two countries.
Besides, it is also necessary to reevaluate the various conditions of Chinese loans taking into account the current financial crisis in the country.
Experts made such remarks in a discussion on the future of Bangladesh-China relations at a hotel in the capital on Monday.
Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) and Centre for China Studies (SIIS-DU) jointly organised the discussion with the help of the Chinese embassy in Dhaka.
Addressing the opening session of the seminar as the chief guest, foreign affairs adviser Md Touhid Hossain said that Bangladesh has witnessed the most significant political change in its history. As a result, the future of Bangladesh-China relations in the post-revolutionary context must be taken into consideration from a wider perspective.
Hinting that the interim government wants to continue defence cooperation between Bangladesh and China, Touhid Hossain said, defence is an important element of the relationship between the two countries.
He further said the course of Bangladesh and various other factors, especially in the post-revolution situation, may impact the relationship with China.
Political stability in Bangladesh and the changing context of regional and global politics are included among those factors.
Hinting that the interim government wants to continue defence cooperation between Bangladesh and China, Touhid Hossain said, defence is an important element of the relationship between the two countries.
He mentioned that China is an important supplier of arms to Bangladesh. China also trains members of the armed forces of Bangladesh. Bangladesh wants more defence cooperation from China to modernise the army in the future.
In his speech, the foreign adviser put emphasis on the removal of non-tariff barriers for Bangladeshi products in the Chinese market in order to eliminate the trade imbalance between the two countries.
It is important to reevaluate the Chinese loan conditions in the context of the current economic pressure in Bangladesh, he pointed out.
Speaking about the trade deficit between the two countries, Touhid said, “It would be better for us if it is possible to increase exports to China through Chinese investment in Bangladesh. Some projects are going on with the help of China and we hope to have an impact on the country’s economy.”
It would be better for us if it is possible to increase exports to China through Chinese investment in Bangladesh, Foreign affairs adviser Md Touhid Hossain.
Stating that China and others are helping on the Rohingya issue, the foreign adviser said, “Unfortunately, such initiatives have not yet brought any results. I think China has an influence over Myanmar and that is a reality. China should play a greater role in this matter so that the Rohingyas can return to their country with their rights and safety.”
Head of the National White Paper Drafting Committee and honorary fellow at Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Debapriya Bhattacharya, also spoke at the event.
He said trade does not depend only on market facilities. Its expansion also depends on the process.
"That is why, we have to take into consideration the issue of non-tariff barriers for the sake of the future of relations in getting 100 per cent benefits for the Bangladeshi products in the Chinese market," Debapriya Bhattacharya.
Putting emphasis on bringing changes in the process of Chinese loans to Bangladesh, he said that if you look at Bangladesh’s foreign loans, you will see that about US $5.6 billion will go to China. It is about 10 per cent of Bangladesh’s total foreign debt. As a result, debt repayment has become a growing challenge for Bangladesh.
Debapriya further said Chinese debt includes supply debt, which has a shorter repayment period. The grace period is also less. Besides, the terms are stricter and commitment charges are higher. It should be considered if there are opportunities to bring changes in those in the future.
He pointed out that the Karnaphuli tunnel will not be financially sustainable unless there is proper Chinese investment in the designated specialised industrial zone for China in Anwara of Chattogram.
More transparency should be brought for the sake of future relations between the two countries, he argued.
Addressing the discussion, Chinese ambassador Yao Wen said Bangladesh has recently experienced a significant political change and is now at an important historical juncture. China, as an integrated strategic cooperative partner of Bangladesh, firmly supports the interim government in its efforts to reform the state, maintain law and order, promote economic development and improve people’s lives.
Chairman of the Bangladesh Institute of Strategic and International Studies' board of governors FM Gousal Azam Sarker presided over the event. Professor Yang Jiemian of Shanghai Institute for International Studies and BIISS director general Major General Iftekhar Anis also spoke.
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Since the video also talks about China's relation with Bangladesh I am posting the link here.
I guess Indians looking to Sahib again, for him to come back and fix the Soda vending machine.
Saif
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Govt takes first step to join China-led trade bloc
The commerce ministry on Monday sent a letter of consent to the foreign ministry, requesting Bangladesh’s entry into the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trade pact.
Govt takes first step to join China-led trade bloc
The commerce ministry on Monday sent a letter of consent to the foreign ministry, requesting Bangladesh's entry into the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world's largest trade pact.
It is the first formal step taken by Bangladesh to join the RCEP, which is a major trade agreement that includes trade in services, investment, economic and technical cooperation, and dispute settlement.
Bangladesh has taken the initiative to join the RCEP mainly because it will lose preferential trade benefits to markets that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) group once it graduates from the list of least developed countries (LDCs) in 2026.
The 10 Asean nations -- namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- are potential markets for Bangladesh.
Moreover, the RCEP also includes five other countries that have signed the Asean Free Trade Agreement (FTA): China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
These 15 countries within the RCEP account for 30 percent of global GDP, 31 percent of global foreign direct investment (FDI) and one-fourth of global trade.
"We have sent a letter citing our consent to join the RCEP," a senior officer of the commerce ministry said on condition of anonymity.
Earlier, the office of the chief adviser approved Bangladesh's participation in the RCEP.
The RCEP was formally launched in November 2020 and came into effect in January 2022 before opening up its platform in July of 2023 and allowing other countries to join.
Any developed or developing country as well as LDCs can join as members.
The commerce ministry has already completed the required assessment for joining the RCEP, according to a document from the commerce ministry.
Primarily, it is assessed that Bangladesh's export would increase by $3.26 billion and FDI by 3.36 percent.
The apparel industry will account for a significant portion of the exports while the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the garment sector will rise by 18 percent, according to the commerce ministry document.
Overall, the country's GDP will increase by 0.26 percent if it joins the RCEP, the document said.
However, if competitiveness is not increased, the services, investment and e-commerce sectors will face numerous challenges.
Since Bangladesh is located in South Asia and is also a member of the Asean Regional Forum, the country will need to negotiate separately with member countries. However, it will also enjoy the benefit of geographical proximity.
As a result, Bangladesh will benefit from the global value chain, the document said.
Another commerce ministry official mentioned that a meeting would be held with Japan in Dhaka next month to initiate formal negotiations to sign an economic partnership agreement (EPA).
Bangladesh and Japan have already completed a joint feasibility study on the EPA.
However, formal negotiations were delayed due to the political transition in Bangladesh in August.
However, the commerce ministry official did not specifically say when the meeting with Japan would take place.
The official also said the commerce ministry has not taken any steps to start formal negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India.
Bangladesh and India completed a joint study on the CEPA more than two years ago. Both parties are now awaiting the formal launch of negotiations.
He also said that negotiations on a proposed FTA with China are expected to start in the near future.
The commerce ministry on Monday sent a letter of consent to the foreign ministry, requesting Bangladesh's entry into the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world's largest trade pact.
It is the first formal step taken by Bangladesh to join the RCEP, which is a major trade agreement that includes trade in services, investment, economic and technical cooperation, and dispute settlement.
Bangladesh has taken the initiative to join the RCEP mainly because it will lose preferential trade benefits to markets that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) group once it graduates from the list of least developed countries (LDCs) in 2026.
The 10 Asean nations -- namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- are potential markets for Bangladesh.
Moreover, the RCEP also includes five other countries that have signed the Asean Free Trade Agreement (FTA): China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
These 15 countries within the RCEP account for 30 percent of global GDP, 31 percent of global foreign direct investment (FDI) and one-fourth of global trade.
"We have sent a letter citing our consent to join the RCEP," a senior officer of the commerce ministry said on condition of anonymity.
Earlier, the office of the chief adviser approved Bangladesh's participation in the RCEP.
The RCEP was formally launched in November 2020 and came into effect in January 2022 before opening up its platform in July of 2023 and allowing other countries to join.
Any developed or developing country as well as LDCs can join as members.
The commerce ministry has already completed the required assessment for joining the RCEP, according to a document from the commerce ministry.
Primarily, it is assessed that Bangladesh's export would increase by $3.26 billion and FDI by 3.36 percent.
The apparel industry will account for a significant portion of the exports while the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the garment sector will rise by 18 percent, according to the commerce ministry document.
Overall, the country's GDP will increase by 0.26 percent if it joins the RCEP, the document said.
However, if competitiveness is not increased, the services, investment and e-commerce sectors will face numerous challenges.
Since Bangladesh is located in South Asia and is also a member of the Asean Regional Forum, the country will need to negotiate separately with member countries. However, it will also enjoy the benefit of geographical proximity.
As a result, Bangladesh will benefit from the global value chain, the document said.
Another commerce ministry official mentioned that a meeting would be held with Japan in Dhaka next month to initiate formal negotiations to sign an economic partnership agreement (EPA).
Bangladesh and Japan have already completed a joint feasibility study on the EPA.
However, formal negotiations were delayed due to the political transition in Bangladesh in August.
However, the commerce ministry official did not specifically say when the meeting with Japan would take place.
The official also said the commerce ministry has not taken any steps to start formal negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India.
Bangladesh and India completed a joint study on the CEPA more than two years ago. Both parties are now awaiting the formal launch of negotiations.
He also said that negotiations on a proposed FTA with China are expected to start in the near future.
