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[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy
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Too many weak firms get through IPO net
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More than two-thirds of companies that got listed on the stock market in the last 14 years were subsequently downgraded to lower categories, with many turning into junk stocks soon after listing.

This has led market analysts to question their motivation for listing: were these decisions sound, or did they go public when they were already on the brink of financial meltdown?

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For a better understanding, consider the case of Sikder Insurance -- the non-life insurer that holds the record for being downgraded to junk status within just one year of its market listing.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) expressed reservations about the listing of Sikder Insurance.

The objection was well-founded, given factors such as the insurer's heavy investment in the loss-making National Bank -- a company owned by its sponsors, and its lower-than-required investment in government T-bonds.

Both actions violate respective laws.

In 2022, Sikder Insurance invested Tk 132 crore, or 73 percent of its total assets, in National Bank, which was already classified as junk stock.

However, Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra) rules prohibit non-life insurance companies from investing more than 5 percent of their assets in a single stock.

In the same year of 2022, National Bank reported a record loss of Tk 3,260 crore, with 25 percent of its total loans classified as non-performing.

In contrast to National Bank, Sikder Insurance invested only Tk 2.5 crore, or 1.37 percent of its assets, in government treasury bonds -- far below the required minimum of 7.5 percent.

The DSE flagged in its report to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) that it was not convinced about the listing.

But the company was approved to go public in 2023.

After its listing in 2024, Sikder Insurance announced a 3 percent cash dividend in June, but failed to disburse it. As a result, its stock was downgraded to Z-category.

Even if the company manages to distribute the dividend, it will only be upgraded to B-category, as a minimum 10 percent cash dividend is required for A-category status.

An analysis of the insurer's 2023 financial report showed that its problematic investment in National Bank remains unchanged.

Since National Bank has not paid dividends for four years, Sikder Insurance's earnings from its primary investment source remain zero.

Besides, the company has not increased its investment in treasury bonds, continuing to flout regulatory requirements.

The Sikder case is not an isolated incident. Many other companies show similar IPO-related issues, raising questions about the stock regulator's due diligence in approving listings.

For instance, Apollo Ispat, whose flagship product "Rani Marka Dheu Tin", had already lost market relevance before its listing on the DSE.

Despite this, BSEC approved its IPO at a premium of Tk 12 per share, only for the company to decline into junk status within a few years.

On Thursday, the stock of Apollo Ispat traded at Tk 3.80.

'ROTTEN STOCKS'

Former BSEC chairman Faruq Ahmad Siddiqi said that these companies should never have been approved for listing, as their financials clearly indicated their businesses were in trouble.

According to DSE data, BSEC has approved 132 companies for listing, transitioning them from private to public entities over the last 14 years. However, nearly one-fourth of these companies have since become junk stocks.

Of the 132 companies approved, only 50 remain in A-category, while 43 have been downgraded to B-category and 38 have fallen to Z-category. One company was merged with another listed company.

Siddiqi said that the BSEC should be held accountable for approving so many questionable IPOs over the past decade.

"This is the right time to do it," he said.

He suggested that regulators should conduct case-by-case inquiries to assess whether struggling companies are failing due to genuine business challenges or mismanagement and poor financial decisions.

Companies with no recovery potential should be liquidated, he added.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association, said that "the impact of these types of rotten stocks is long-term."

Even if some of these IPOs were approved under political pressure, now is the time to delist underperforming companies, he commented.

According to Islam, flawed listing regulations make delisting a lengthy and complicated process.

He called for easier listing and delisting procedures to prevent poorly performing companies from dragging down the market for years.

He added that although delisting such companies may cause losses for some investors, there is no benefit in holding stocks where major assets are at risk.

WILL THE REGULATOR TAKE NOTE?

The value of Sikder Insurance's investment in National Bank has already dropped by 50 percent since 2022.

Md Jakir Hossain, a stock investor, admitted that he did not analyse the company's financials before investing in its IPO.

He assumed that a company wouldn't become junk overnight and that it should take at least a few years to be downgraded.

Contacted, BSEC spokesperson Rejaul Karim said that insurance companies are required by law to be listed and that Sikder Insurance met the public issue rules at the time of approval.

"In IPO approval, the regulator sees whether the company followed the public issue rules properly," he said.

However, he admitted that BSEC is now more cautious to prevent poor-performing companies from receiving IPO approvals.

In 2021, BSEC intervened by restructuring the boards of several underperforming companies, but none of them have fully recovered.

Karim said if the stock market taskforce formed by the interim government makes recommendations regarding these struggling companies, the regulator will analyse the cases and take action.

Abdur Razzak, company secretary of Sikder Insurance, said the insurer has already paid most of its announced dividend and expects to be upgraded to B-category soon.

He admitted that the company -- whose stock traded at Tk 21.90 on Thursday -- has not received any dividends from its major investment in National Bank but defended the decision not to sell its shares, citing the current low market price.

He also said that their buying price was around Tk 10 per share, while National Bank shares are now trading below Tk 5.​
 
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Bangladesh calls for reforms in global financial system
Says Bangladesh’s permanent representative to the UN

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Bangladesh has called for a reformed international financial system and enhanced technology support to address critical social development needs.

Ambassador Salahuddin Noman Chowdhury, Bangladesh's permanent representative to the UN, made the appeal while addressing the 63rd session of the Commission for Social Development (CSocD63) at the UN Headquarters in New York today.

He underscored the need for international cooperation to bridge existing gaps and ensure sustainable and inclusive development.

Highlighting Bangladesh's key national initiatives under the current interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, the ambassador reaffirmed the country's commitment to inclusive policies aimed at advancing social development.

The ambassador also stressed the government's focus on eliminating poverty, tackling unemployment, and reducing net carbon emissions.

He outlined Bangladesh's efforts to combat climate change through adaptation and mitigation programmes despite limited resources.

Additionally, he called for renewed global commitments in financing, technology transfer, and capacity-building to create a just, inclusive, and resilient future.

The 63 session of the Commission for Social Development (CSocD63) is taking place at the United Nations Headquarters in New York from February 10 to 14.

Bangladesh is a member of the commission for the 2023-2027 term.​
 
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Bangladesh poised for record remittance inflow this year: Governor
UNB
Published :
Feb 12, 2025 20:26
Updated :
Feb 12, 2025 20:26

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Bangladesh is on track to set a record for inward remittances through legal channels this year, as expatriates regain trust in the banking system, said Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr Ahsan H Mansur.

The governor made the remarks while addressing concerns over recent media reports alleging loan irregularities involving an independent director of Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC.

Following an investigation, Bangladesh Bank found no evidence to support the claims against Abdul Jalil, an independent director of the bank.

“Publishing reports in newspapers is not a probe that proves someone guilty. Sometimes, misinformation and lack of proper verification lead to misleading reports,” Dr. Mansur told UNB on Wednesday.

He suggested that vested groups opposing banking sector reforms might be spreading such propaganda.

He, however, emphasised the positive trajectory of the banking sector, particularly in remittance collection. “We have confidence in the current board of Islami Bank. The bank has made a remarkable turnaround and is excelling in areas such as deposit growth, investment, and remittance collection.”

Dr Mansur expressed optimism that remittance inflows through official channels would hit a new high this year. “Expatriates now have renewed confidence in the banking system, and this will reflect in record-breaking remittance figures,” he added.

About small depositors in some troubled banks, the governor reassured that Bangladesh Bank is working on policies to safeguard depositors’ interests.

“There is no reason to worry about customer deposits in any scheduled bank. We are working on long-term solutions, but people need to be patient for a steady recovery,” he said.

With increasing trust in the banking system and ongoing reforms, Bangladesh is expected to see strong economic gains from its remittance-dependent financial sector.​
 
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Interim govt adopting wrong policies at wrong times: Mustafa K Mujeri
Staff Correspondent
Dhaka
Published: 12 Feb 2025, 21: 24

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Jago News 24 organised a roundtable under the title “Burden of additional taxes on consumers: What to be done” at the MCCI conference room in the capital’s Gulshan Prothom Alo

Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) for director general and former chief economist at Bangladesh Bank, Mustafa K Mujeri has remarked that the current interim government is adopting wrong policies at wrong times.

The eminent economist said, “It has been six months since the interim government took over. Unfortunately there has been almost no success in the financial sector of the country in this time. The economy has largely stagnated due to some core problems such as high inflation rate and slow pace of financial growth. There has not been much success in terms of other problems we have. As a result the economy is yet to bounce back.”

Mustafa K Mujeri further said, “There is a common pattern of the economic policies adopted so far by the interim government. And that is adopting wrong policies at the wrong time. The consequences won’t be good in the coming days.”

He came up with these remarks at a roundtable under the title “Burden of additional taxes on consumers: What to be done” organised by news portal Jago News 24 at the MCCI conference room in the capital’s Gulshan. Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) research director Khandaker Golam Moazzem presented the keynote at the roundtable.

Economist Mustafa K Mujeri said, “Monetary policy alone cannot control inflation in a country like Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has raised the policy interest rate to more than 10 per cent. There hasn’t been any impact of this initiative on inflation. Inflation is pursuing its own course. Rather, it is doing harm to the country’s economy. It is also hampering the business and production too. As a result the amount of loss is rising.”

The former BIDS director general said, “The policies being adopted by the interim government have no correlation. The government is not thinking much before taking up any policy. The decisions are sudden. The decision to increase VAT is one such decision. It was a sudden decision. The condition imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) played a key role behind the decision. Finance ministry officials think increasing VAT is the easiest way to increase revenue. They think additional VAT will increase the revenue by Tk 120 billion.”

He further said, “The prescriptions provided by the IMF or the World Bank since the 80s haven’t worked. Each of those failed. And so is going to happen this time too.”

The processes must be proper for the economy to bounce back, he said adding “The economy must be dynamic to increase revenue. We will never be able to increase revenue collection by stalling the economy.

Bangladesh Auto Biscuit and Bread Manufacturers Association President Shafiqur Rahman Bhuiyan raised the demand to keep food products VAT-free.

“How much to reduce the amount of biscuits in the packet to adjust with the additional VAT? How much to decrease the size of the packet. If things continue to be like this, then we will have to sell empty packets one day.”

Pran-RFL group chairman and CEO Ahsan Khan Chowdhury said the country would run smoothly if the VAT rate was rational.

He said, “Traders and businesspersons are important to move the country forward. The government needs to enhance contacts with businesspersons and conglomerates.”

Economist MM Akash said the main goal of the government was to reduce the price hike. As they failed to do that despite various efforts, they reduced the tariff. But instead of decreasing the prices of daily commodities, it created a revenue deficit. Following that, the IMF said that it would not disburse the fourth installment if there is a revenue deficit. In these circumstances, the government imposed additional VAT on some products, which created more pressure on low and middle income people.

Jago News Acting Editor KM Ziaul Haque moderated the roundtable discussion, which was attended by Policy Exchange Bangladesh chairman M Masrur Riaz, former National Board of Revenue (NBR) member Rezaul Hasan, BKMEA president Mohammad Hatem, former Dhaka Chamber president Ashraf Ahmed, former BGMEA director Mohiuddin Rubel, Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) vice president Nazer Hossain, ACI Foods chief business officer Faria Yasmin, SMC Enterprise Limited managing director Saif Uddin Nasir, Bangladesh Agro Processors Association (BAPA) president MA Hashem, ERF president Daulat Akhter Mala, former banker Saiful Hossain and Supermarket Owners Association general secretary Md. Zakir Hossain.=​
 
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Key challenges and barriers in Bangladesh's export diversification
UNB

Published :
Feb 13, 2025 10:11
Updated :
Feb 13, 2025 10:11

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Although Bangladesh’s export volume has grown by over 5 per cent in the last 35 years since 1989-90, the diversification of export products remains elusive, with exports still concentrated in just 8 to 9 major items.

Why has Bangladesh been unable to achieve significant export diversification despite sustained efforts?

According to Abu Mukhles Alamgir Hossain, Director (Policy and Planning) of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), several other promising sectors, such as leather and leather goods, jute and jute products, agricultural and processed products, handicrafts, pharmaceuticals, ICT and ICT-enabled services, and light engineering products, do not receive the same level of policy support and incentives as the readymade garments (RMG) sector.

He emphasised that sector-specific policy papers are essential to assess the advantages and disadvantages of diversification while also analysing the strategies of competing nations.

Barriers to Export Diversification

A range of challenges hinder Bangladesh’s export diversification efforts.

These include low technological advancement, inconsistent trade policies, environmental and compliance issues, skill shortages, limited innovation and research & development (R&D), inadequate logistics, intense global competition, and restricted access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Alamgir Hossain said that SMEs in Bangladesh struggle due to limited access to affordable credit. High interest rates and collateral requirements create significant barriers to business expansion.

“Although SMEs are regarded as the lifeblood of the economy, Bangladesh must prioritise their development if serious about export diversification,” he said.

He added that export diversification cannot happen overnight. There is no shortcut to achieving it. Long-term strategies, sector-specific policies, business-friendly customs procedures, and efficient logistics are crucial for ensuring a diversified export sector.

Current Export Scenario

According to the EPB, Bangladesh exported goods worth Tk 2.94 lakh crore (US$28 billion) in the seven months from July to January, of which Tk 2.46 lakh crore (US$23.5 billion) came from garments alone. During this period in the current 2024-25 fiscal year, total export earnings grew by 11.68 per cent.

The ready-made garment sector grew by 12 per cent, with knitwear expanding by 12 per cent and woven garments by 11.97 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Bangladesh’s export earnings are still overwhelmingly dependent on the clothing sector. The EPB reports that in the 2023-24 fiscal year, knitwear accounted for 44.6 per cent of exports, woven garments 37.2 per cent, home textiles 3.3 per cent, footwear 2.3 per cent, jute products 1.9 per cent, and fish 1 per cent.

Despite expert recommendations and government initiatives to promote export diversification, non-RMG sectors have shown little improvement, continuing their weak performance year after year.

Bangladesh’s export products remain concentrated in just eight categories: knitwear, woven garments, agricultural products, leather and leather goods, jute and jute products, home textiles, frozen and live fish and engineering products.

Challenges in Expanding Export Markets

Bangladesh’s primary export destinations are the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom. While these markets are large, they primarily import clothing items from Bangladesh due to the country's expertise in the sector and its competitive pricing, industry insiders say.

Dr Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, Chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID) think tank, stressed that the time for serious efforts towards export diversification is now.

“Although achieving major export diversification is a long-term process and Bangladesh has been trying for years, there is no alternative but to achieve diversification to sustain the export sector,” he stated.

Dr Razzaque, who has also served as a trade expert in the UK and EU, warned that global challenges could lead to declining demand for clothing products in the USA, UK, and EU, as competing countries ramp up their export capacities.

Furthermore, he pointed out that US sanctions on China may indirectly affect Bangladesh’s garment sector, given that Bangladesh imports a significant portion of raw materials for garments from China. The evolving global trade landscape poses additional risks.

Key Issues Preventing Export Diversification

Responding to why Bangladesh has failed to diversify its exports, Dr Razzaque said, “We have not taken the issue of product diversification seriously enough. Compliance is another major concern.”

He noted that the potential of the leather sector remains largely untapped due to compliance issues. “Bangladesh had ample time to address compliance challenges in the leather industry, but mismanagement and corruption have kept the sector lagging behind,” he added.

Dr Razzaque emphasised the need for improving workforce skills to enhance competitiveness in the global market.

He argued that producing diversified and high-end products would provide Bangladesh with a crucial advantage in exports.

While Bangladesh’s export sector has seen remarkable growth, its overwhelming reliance on the RMG industry makes it vulnerable to shifts in global demand and competition.

Addressing barriers such as inadequate policy support for non-RMG sectors, compliance shortcomings, skill gaps, and financial constraints on SMEs is essential for meaningful diversification. Without significant reforms and targeted investment in emerging export industries, Bangladesh risks stagnation in its export growth and long-term economic vulnerability.​
 
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